The Zubrus Conundrum

by John Fischer on May 7, 2009 12:45 PM EDT in Devils Issues, Views & Analysis

Dainius Zubrus is a New Jersey Devil that back in November looked to be on the rise. 6 goals and 8 assists in 20 games, coming off a massive 4 goal performance. He was centering Patrik Elias and Brian Gionta, his CORSI was 11.9, and he was looking good. As I said back in November, he was what Viktor Kozlov should have been.

Unfortunately, the rise stemmed off somewhere. It is now the end of the 2008-09 season and here is Zubrus' totals:

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
08-09 - Dainius Zubrus	82	15	25	40	6	69	1	0	3	0	130	11.5

For comparison, here are the totals of his first season in New Jersey, wherein he (and almost every other forward) were jumped around from line to line:

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
07-08 - Dainius Zubrus	82	13	25	38	2	38	4	0	2	0	128	10.2

The first season, OK, that's explained away. But after a season where he had consistent linemates, he was on a scoring line, and he was a regular on the second power play unit, the result is...2 more shots on net and more goals? Since I wrote that post praising Zubrus (with concurring comments!), he has put in exactly 9 goals and 17 assists in 62 games mostly playing on a scoring line with Patrik Elias and Brian Gionta. Seriously.

If you think Brian Gionta didn't provide full value for that $4 million/year deal at 20 goals and 60 points; I don't see how Zubrus is providing full value for $3.4 million/year so far on his deal (which runs into 2012-13 by the way).

But, like with all things in life, it's not that simple. It's more of a conundrum than anything else.

Zubrus isn't productive in terms of points, this is true. This is not to say he provided little value to the team. For his first full season as a center in New Jersey, he took 923 faceoffs and won 473 of them, a winning percentage of 51.2%. OK, he's no Yanic Perreault, but it's still a favorable percentage - and just below John Madden's 51.6% with respect to the team. He's not defensively inept from what I saw this season. According to Behind the Net, his CORSI is still a solid 11.9, fifth highest among regulars (he's between Elias' 12.3 and Gionta's 10.9). When Zubrus is on the ice, offense happens. His presence does not result in the other team firing away at will; rather, he and his teammates press the issue themselves. However, based on the low shot totals of Zubrus himself, it's clear he isn't leading the offense.

This leads me to my theory about Zubrus. Basically, he's a key reason for Sutter's system for offensive puck possession that we saw this season. Going forward, the Devils tend to dump the puck into the end-boards or the corners, fight to win the puck back, and either cycle it down low or move the puck around the zone. The 6'5", 225 lbs. Lithuianian Freight Train (nickname courtesy of Chico) has taken to this system like a duck turns to water .

While Zubrus isn't a total banger, he does lead the Devils' top 6 forwards in hits (98, 5th on team). He uses his size to protect the puck or force possession back. He commands attention from defenders and helps create literal space for Elias and Gionta to do their thing. Because Zubrus isn't slow or has (complete) hands of stone, he can switch from physical play to more flowing play on offense once the Devils do get the puck back. I happen to think that's why he fits in well with an energetic Gionta and Elias. I think his skills at getting and winning puck possession is his biggest asset to the team. I think he makes the Sutter's system work for that line. It's why I believe he's what Viktor Kozlov should have been.

But is all this worth $3.4 million/year? Elias had a great year but based on Zubrus' and Gionta's low goal totals, it's arguable that Elias carried the line offensively. Yet, you lose part of what he brings to the table if you put him on a third or fourth line that's likely out there for "energy" or to spell the top two lines. This is where the conundrum sets in: he's proven he's of some value on a scoring line; but he's not producing enough to justify the salary and his position on the roster. It's that simple. And because the contract is entering year 3, it's about likely as attractive as trade value as a pile of mud.

I do have one suggestion that I hope Zubrus will work on this summer. Shooting. He had 130 shots on net this season. That's an average of 1.1 shots per game. Elias, he of 31 goals scored, had an average of 3.2 shots per game this season. Gionta, he of 20 goals scored, had an average of 3.1 shots per game this season. The one clear way I can see Zubrus improve his numbers is simply by taking more shots himself. He's good at fighting for and winning possession, he's not bad at passing the puck, but he's really got to unload the shot more often. It'd be one thing if he had, say, 181 shots; at least we could say the effort to score is there. But he doesn't have that right now. That's something, I think, he can look to improve. No, he won't become a lethal sniper; but I think he can get more than 15 goals that way.

And if he does get on the scoresheet more often, it'll definitely improve the fortunes of the Devils - not just in justifying his own long contract with the team. Until then, he remains more of a question of what to do with him than being an answer to the team's issues.

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Comments

As I've made clear here several times,

I’m not a Zubrus fan at all. For as big as he is, he doesn’t play nearly as tough as you would expect he would. He doesn’t take a lot of penalties, but it seems like the ones he does take are very ill-timed, especially when he loses his temper and retaliates. I cringe every time I see him with the puck on his stick. He looks lost time after time. I still don’t know how he scored 4 goals in one game. I think the only player on this team worse at finishing quality scoring chances is Madden, who apparently doesn’t realize that you aren’t rewarded for hitting the goalie’s logo on his jersey. I think optimally Gio walks and Rolston slides up and takes his spot, and we find a new No. 2 C. But I do agree John, he doesn’t fit either of the other two lines either, and it’d be impossible to buy him out or trade him. Looks like we’ll be stuck with him for some time.

by Mandmeisterx on May 7, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions

Zubrus is an average player.

Zubrus will never be a big scorer but he is a good faceoff man and obviously he is a plus hockey player by his statistics. He contributes in other ways besides goal scoring. He is a good forechecker and helps keep his line in possesion of the puck.. We can complain about him all we want but we need better goaltending to get past the first round of the playoffs…

Donald Vasquez

by don_vas on May 7, 2009 4:14 PM EDT reply actions

Better goaltending?

Don, the Devils scored 15 goals in 7 games – an average of 2.14 goals per game against Carolina. Last year against the Rangers, they scored 12 in 5 games – an average of 2.4 goals per game.

The scoring has to improve in the playoffs. Despite that the Devils averaged at least 3 goals per game for much of the past season, offense remains as key issue for this team. That’s why Zubrus’ lack of production is troubling – and part of the reason why i wrote this. That’s why I think if he can produce some more goals while doing all that he currently does, he becomes well worth his contract.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on May 7, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

zubrus

we are stuck with zubrus and his cap hit, but IMHO we should be stuck with him as a very expensive third line center…i think their plan should be to get a good free agent center to replace gomez (something they still have not done) and let that center play between elias and rolston and suddenly they’d have two top lines, not one and a half…they also have to re-sign zajac and oduya…to do all of these things they would have to not re-sign madden, havelid or gionta and demote pandolfo to lowell via waivers, where he wouldn’t count against the cap…for third and fourth lines they’d have clarkson, zubrus, offer a contract to rupp, rod pelley and pierre luc-leternau-leblond and maybe be able to work bergfors, vrana or another young player into the lineup—given the salary cap limitations, i think my suggestion is at least worthy of consderation…what do you folks think?

by don in central jersey on May 7, 2009 4:23 PM EDT reply actions

comment

yeah for his size he should do more because he’s not a big lump on skates, he has ability, but seems it ain’t all coming out of him.If someone lit a fire under him I would imagine he would not be fun to play against.

by eppy on May 7, 2009 5:38 PM EDT reply actions

It’s not that he’s lazy – he’s definitely not, especially along the boards – he just could be doing better. And he has to in order to provide full value for his services.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on May 7, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

True

Yes, a lazy player wont fight along the boards for the puck, your right. This leads me to a slight change of direction, and that is that I would like to see our attack with this very team or slightly altered team for this upcoming 09-10 season change to a Detroit type of attack wherebye once we pass the other teams blueline our fowards converge around the net in or near the scoring angles shooting and swarming for rebounds. Too many times when we rush in we seem to take ourselfes out to wide and out of the play, even on a dump in and we rush behind the net fighting to win the puck only to send it out in front of the net with no devil around(hard work for nothing)-if you watch detroit theres always someone in the slot area to bang it in. I know it’s easier said than done but being we aren’t a terribly physical team and have proven by our success this past season with shootouts(you cant win them if you dont have good shooters)I think better positioning ourselves and shooting away will make us a better scoring team than just dumping in the puck and always fighting for control to make the perfect play.I believe just a change of offensive tactic will increase our goal output dramatically.Realize, Carolina still is rolling along and if they continue to win it all, it would be safe to say we were within a minute of winning it all ourselves.Of course im getting ahead of myself but my point is that we shouldn’t panic thinking we need many changes.

by eppy on May 7, 2009 6:10 PM EDT reply actions

wow, i pretty much posted the same content last night except after 1 in the morn

check out 2manadvantage.com’s comments on their most recent post to check out my full post, for now i’ll just copy and paste parts….

today’s discussion is zubs…the man started this season as part of the 700 Club which happened to be the fourth line. such a shame they had to break that line up as it created so much excitement and sparked the entire team. then he gets moved up to what was supposed to be our first line…remember guys and girls, zzpops was not supposed to be our number one line. he started off great with elias and gionta, but things just died off completely. i agree that he should use his size more often, but disagree with a previous poster in that he performs well on the boards while protecting the puck. if he had more confidence he could perform so much better. the guy has a pretty nice shot on him, but the problem is he never uses it (once again, a confidence issue). while playing on the second line, he only managed 108 shots for the entire season!! out of all devil forwards, he managed to only beat out holik on shots (who played much less ice time and played 20 less games) and big mike rupp (also much less ice time and 10 less games). i don’t have individual game shot totals, but i would bet money that he had his highest shot total when he scored 4 goals against the lightning. that game he scored from all over the ice, as opposed to the up close goals, dirty goals. who could forget his game winning goal against the canes on the final day of the season? i just read his linemates elias had 247 shots and gio had 248. it goes without saying that zubs is not a playmaking center…so why is there such a discrepency regarding their shot totals?! both linemates placed more than double his shots on goal!! look at clarkie, he gets less ice time than zubs and is shuffled between the bottom lines, yet the kid gets 158 shots on goal and gets 17 goals. zubs needs to take a lesson from clarkie and shoot the puck more. a man of his size and power will create rebounds off his shot. gio and elias are great up front, so they can easily bury those rebounds.

anyways, long story short….ZUBS MUST TAKE MORE SHOTS!!! i don’t care if he’s on the first or fourth line, the more shots on net the better the chance for a goal. like it or not, he is on the team for years to come. and that is why coaching needs to focus on him. we can’t change his salary, but we can increase his skill and confidence. remember how we wrote off zajac last year? look what happened to the kid in a single offseason…just imagine if zubs blossems during this offseason.

by rico suave OHHHHH on May 7, 2009 9:39 PM EDT reply actions

I didn’t see what you wrote originally. I didn’t consider whether confidence was an issue…

Oh, but the ZZ Pops is the first line. It has to be. They fit the definition of what a first line should be.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on May 7, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions

question

Being a long time Devil fan but now reside in south florida I feel stupid in asking but what is ZZ Pops line stand for that I see in so many posts? Thanks in advance for answer-

by eppy on May 7, 2009 11:42 PM EDT reply actions

Zach and Zajac are the two Z’s, and Langenbrunner, being the elder statesman, is “Pops.”

by elesias on May 8, 2009 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions

I think Zubrus has shown that his best fit would be on a third line. I’d like to see him gone, but it seems he’s to be a Devil for a while yet.

He’s obviously not first line material; he’s shown that he can work on a second line, but that it isn’t a great fit; and, he’s not an “energy” player or physical enough for a fourth line.

That leaves the third line. Assuming one or both of the following are true: Madden is leaving and Sutter truly doesn’t desire a checking line, then Zubrus’ ability to take face-offs and maintain puck possession, with a little offense thrown in, might be a good fit. While opponents are trying to line match to get their big guns out (and away from our top two lines, which, presumably, will be carrying play), Zubrus can, ideally speaking, win some face-offs and hold the offensive pressure, even if it’s just fighting along the boards and cycling and wearing down the defense.

Whether or not it would work out that way depends, of course, upon Zubrus himself and his line mates. On the flip side, I’m not sure I’d feel very comfortable with Zubrus out there against the likes of a Kovalchuk or Lecavelier or Iginla, but if he can play his role well enough, he might just frustrate teams… and even score a goal now and then.

by elesias on May 8, 2009 8:42 AM EDT reply actions

I agree with John, Zubrus is effective in ways that don’t show up in the stats. This doesn’t necessarily mean he’s worth 3.4 million for 4 more years. The problem seems to be where does he fit? He’s not a first line center, and with the emergence of Zajac doesn’t need to be. I tend to think he was more effective on the 2nd line with Elias and Gionta versus playing anywhere else. Gionta’s continued drop in goals (despite playing very well night in and night out) also impacts Zubrus’ numbers, if Gio (or whoever plays with Elias) nets more goals it means more assists for Zubrus. Still, I can see Lou considering moving him. If he stays and continues to play with Elias he needs to shoot a bit more as suggested, but ideally the other winger on that line needs to pot some more goals. Zubrus is a setup man not a big goal scorer.

by drhgzang on May 8, 2009 7:31 PM EDT reply actions