Chere: Travis Zajac Files for Salary Arbitration - What This Could Mean for the New Jersey Devils
by John Fischer on Jul 5, 2009 9:31 PM EDT
in Devils Issues & Views
24 comments
Chere has reported just under a half-hour ago that Travis Zajac has filed for salary arbitration. As is his right according to the NHL CBA. Now, I'm sure the first question some of you may ask is, "What in the world does that mean? What could happen?" Let's break it down using what little knowledge I have of arbitration and Article 12 of the NHL CBA, which covers arbitration.
The short-term and initial good news is that Travis Zajac will (almost) definitely return next season. I emphasize almost as teams have "walk-away" rights after the results of arbitration that they can invoke within a vast number of requirements. Based on past arbitration hearings with the Devils that I can recall, the player has returned next season. Moreover, I don't expect the Devils to walk away from Zajac, not with their current lack of depth at the position and with their current surplus of cap space. So expect Zajac to continue to be the center for Zach Parise. However, considering the process, this could turn out to be some serious bad news for the Devils.
The process itself is, I think, essentially more straight forward than explained in the NHL CBA. If you have some time and would like to read more into how the league operates, I highly recommend checking it out for yourself. Assuming I have this right (and if I don't, please let me know!), the player (and the NHLPA) and the team (and the NHL) makes their respective cases and an independent arbitraitor makes his or her ruling and awards a one or two year (depends on what is elected for arbitration) contract to the player. It's very much like making a legal case; and the CBA has all kinds of requirements involving what could be presented as evidence and how procedures go. According to the CBA, the player makes their argument, the team makes their argument, the player rebuts the team's argument, the team rebuts the player's argument, and then there is a ruling.
But let's get back to Zajac. From my understanding of past arbitration hearings that Bobby Holik and Scott Gomez went through, this is a cold process. In a one-on-one negotation, there may be more (for lack of a better word) acceptance of a flaw or value added to an asset. Yet, in arbitration, it all boils down to hard facts. Let's have some hard facts, something I'm sure Zajac and his people will bring up:
Now, Gionta just got $5 million/year from Montreal and Zajac was more productive than he was in all aspects except for shots on goal. So Zajac can ask for some serious money and he'll have a case, right?
UPDATE: Well, no. Gulitti in his own comments clarified what can and cannot be used as evidence, or in this case, a "comparable." I certainly didn't know that and, well, it's a bit of a relief - one less thing to worry about. Here's the explanation from Gulitti:
Well, not so fast. So let's compare it to a RFA. Earlier in June, the Boston Bruins signed RFA center David Krejci to an extension worth $3.75 million/year as a cap hit; and Krejci was more productive than both players while being about the same age as Zajac and playing the same position as him:
So Zajac and his people can use this baseline as a case for somewhere above $3 million, while Lou and his people can argue that no way should Zajac earn more than Krejci.
This is all just an example of how it could on. Personally, I think Zajac could command $3 - $3.5 million and it'd be a fair value - he shouldn't get Krejci money, but not much less than that. Then again, this summer has shown that this is a market where Gionta somehow got $5 million/year. Who knows how this could go? I cannot say for sure.
I can definitely state that the proceedings will be far more complex than this and this is what you should be worried about. Should this hearing get nasty, and Zajac and his people essentially leaves with the arbitrator ruling in favor of the Devils after spending a day hearing why he's not as worth as much as he think he is, this could spell the end of Zajac as a Devil. Once that arbitrator-awarded contract ends, Zajac will most likely want to leave ASAP (not the next season, but when he eligible for UFA status) and earn a paycheck elsewhere. Even if the arbitration seemingly works out in the players favor, like when Gomez had his salary doubled back in 2005; he still went away from the organization (to the Rangers, no less!) when he became a free agent again. The process can do a lot of damage to that player-organization relationship. And then there's the blow-off option the team has; simply "walking away" from the arbitration ruling when awarded and leaving the player as an unrestricted free agent. Again, I don't think the Devils will use that "walk away" option so I wouldn't worry about that.
The upside is that should the hearings go fairly well - even in favor of Zajac or not that nasty, then Lou could simply offer a contract extension later on in the season should Zajac and his people are receptive. Arbitration does not guarantee that the player will leave the team at the earlier possibility; it just tends to happen based on how the process goes. Holik and Gomez were well into their careers when they went to arbitration and so they could demand (and eventually command) big money. Zajac turned 24 a few months ago, so I won't go as far as to say that he would be likely to do the same unless he builds off that excellent bounce-back season he just had in 2008-09. And hey, no other team can negotiate with Zajac other than the Devils up until the hearings - so no offer sheets can be tendered. Hence, Zajac is a Devil at least in the short-term.
Still, if you think that Zajac should be a long-term Devil, setting up Parise for night after night, then you need to pay very close attention to how the arbitration hearings go later this summer (it's usually the end of July, beginning of August). That will go a long way more than anything else as to whether he wants to be a Devil. Zajac will almost definitely be in Devils red next season. Whether or not he'll stay in New Jersey is now a serious question mark.
Have your say in the comments below. Are you concerned that Zajac is going this route? Did I get something wrong or forget about an example of a Devils-arbitration hearing going well? Let me know how you think about this news.
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C'mon Lou
What are you doing??? You’ve had plenty of days to sign this guy who is now our number 1 center and you don’t do it. WAKE UP!!!! This guy is young and is a fantastic center who his good years are yet to come. Hopefully this won’t hurt the devils in keeping Parise. Which I hope he doesn’t follow Zajac to go to another team. Sometimes I wonder what the hell he has been doing. He doesn’t have a head coach. didn’t sign ANYONE yet, even the Isles and Thrashers did. And he didn’t sign Travis. Is he on vacation or something? He will probably leave if the Devils as you can say " win" the case. Its a big lose if signs elsewhere. I would rather sign Zajac than anyone else on the market right now. Its July 5 and Lou hasn’t done a thing yet. Ooops sorry he had that big trade with the Islanders getting Walter. Oh and who could forget that 7th round draft pick we just signed named IIkka. Wake up Lou because the Devils are in trouble right now…
You…did read this right?
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by John Fischer on Jul 5, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Note: Post Updated
Post updated with Gulitti’s comments.
Also – let me highlight that no other team can touch Zajac now. The only way he’s not a Devil next season is if Lou walks away from the arbitration deal at the end. And as I mentioned in the initial post, that’s rather unlikely.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
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zajac
from what i can make of things from gulitti’s blog, the devils can require the arbitrator to make an award covering two years, after which zajac can become a UFA if the devils do not walk away from the arbitration award, something which is most unlikely…but even if zajac and the devils come to terms before an arbitration award is rendered, he will become a UFA in three years anyway, unless the collective bargaining agreement, which expires after two more seasons, is altered…or if zajac were to somehow agree to a contract of more than three years prior to any arbitration award being handed down which is also rather unlikely— this news ( zajac’s filing for arbitration) isn’t as ominous as it might seem at first glance, and as long as both sides are realistic and approach it as a business decision, it should work itself out…unlike many of the fans who post their opinions on this and other website, for the players and the owners this is a business and they must approach it that way…the fans can react according to their emotions, but the players and owners must be business-like in their appriach—i really don’t regard this free agency filing as necessily bad news, just that both sides will use the leverage available to them as they negotiate
by don in central jersey on Jul 5, 2009 11:21 PM EDT reply actions
This is mostly right. Zajac and Lou can definitely hammer out a deal before the arbitrator issues their ruling.
The only thing is that Zajac can only become a UFA if the Devils do walk away from the award – but perhaps that was a typo, and if so then this is correct.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Jul 5, 2009 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
zajac
that is what i was trying to say, sorry i wasn’t able to make that more clear
by don in central jersey on Jul 5, 2009 11:45 PM EDT reply actions
Perhaps this is strategic for the Devils
Think about it this way. Zajac probably wants to sign long term but the Devils are afraid to do that right now with the predicted drop in the salary cap next season. By going to arbitration, it locks up Zajac from other teams’ offer sheets without actually signing him and taking up cap space. Perhaps they really do think it would be fine if Zajac walked and want to see him get a lower salary. After all, Zajac has seen the crazy salaries teams have been offering this offseason and could be asking for a lot. Keep in mind that Zajac was said to be performing below his expectations the season before this past one. It might be that the Devils want to make sure he can play the way he needs to play as the top center for another season before they dish out money for him long-term. Keep in mind that all is not lost yet. Sure Gomez and Holik did similar things then left, but consider Henrik Lunqvist. He went to arbitration with the Rangers and then signed a long-term extension about half way through that following season. I do not think that Zajac is unhappy with the Devils because signs are usually there to identify this throughout the season.
John, I’d suspect the other comparable out there is David Bolland. His deal is just over 3.3 million per season over 5 years. Split the difference between him and Krejci and call it 3.5 million, maybe?
Oh, and salary arbitration is never pretty. I wouldn’t expect Lamoriello to go the Milbury route and try to destroy a guy, but for all the talk of “it’s a business” this story by James Mirtle might shed some light on why it isn’t always quite so.
The only concern i get from this is how low-ball was Lou trying to go in the first place? I mean, after all he’s been more productive than Gionta, Madden, and Rupp. All whom i’m fine with walkin since we do need to get younger and hopefully faster. But, you figure his tight relationship with Parise and hopeful future as Parise’s center for next 3- 5 years would make this situation a no-brainer. But, as you all pointed out, it’s a business, and i’m sure the Devils aren’t going to overpay for him. You have to take into account too, he’ll probably get more out of this than Parise makes. Then that creates a whole new problem. Parise will be due a massive raise as well. Saving money is fine, so long as we lock up the right guys. I’d rather NOT go get a Koivu or Komisarek or whoever the hell in the offseason and rely on the depth of our organization, but Parise,Zajac, and Martin need to be put under contract. Saving money is fine, and i can see why we need to. I guess, my point is, how low was Lou expecting him to settle for? How far off where they? I’m confident the issue will be resolved, i don’t think the Devils will be so stupid as to let our young #1 center in the organization and 1/3 (along with Parise=2/3) of our top line walk away from this disgruntled. I just wish it wouldn’t have gotten to this point.
You all make valid points
And that’s why this is so concerning. Because Lou and the Devils organization are excellent at keeping negotiations and transactions from leaking to the press, we may never know the story.
We don’t know if Lou has been tied up with all kinds of agents pitching deals and not coming up for one reason or another.
We don’t know if this is just a tactic to keep Zajac from being given an offer sheet that Zajac is going along with (Zajac’s side elected for arbitration, after all).
We don’t know if it’s Zajac souring on the team, or if it’s his agent making a play to get his client more money.
We don’t know what Lou has even offered Zajac to begin with.
So it can be all of these possibilities, some of these, or none of these. And we’re likely not going to hear which one these it is.
That said, because arbitration is a cold process – as noted again by some of your comments – that can become quite ruthless, that alone is a cause of concern. Again, see Gomez and Holik for examples of this.
The best case scenario is either a deal is struck before the hearing; or the hearing goes smoothly enough to allow for a long-term deal to be made later.
But until then, we are stuck waiting and speculating.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The Devils SBN Blog
Lou is out of touch
If any devil fan honestly looks at this team they will come to the realization that they will not win the cup any time soon. They have a second-rate defense at best, no true number one center. They are soft and easy to play against. Their top defensive forward was a healthy scratch for many games last season. With almost every team in the East making moves to improve, Lou has done nothing to improve. I’m tired of hearing that hard work wins, somewhere skill plays a part. The team still needs a number one defenseman and a top six forward. With Lou’s track record recently I’m not confident.
Lou is out of touch?
Soft and easy to play against? Are you watching the right team?
According to Mirtle, the Devils’ top defensive forward was Elias who played 77 games, missing 5 due to injury.
The Devils didn’t have a true #1 defenseman (are there even 30 #1 defensemen in the league?) since Niedermayer and skill up front has always seemingly been an issue.
Yet, the Devils continue to succeed. Over and over and over and over and over.
I think Lou knows what he’s doing.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
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Really?
If he knew what he was doing he should have signed a guy already. IIkka does’t count because he is useless. We lost two centers in Madden and Holik and Lou hasn’t got up from his butt. We need a coach and we need a center. Forget a defenseman just bring up Corrente. Coaches don’t fall out of the sky. Why is Lou trying to get younger when you have Martin Brodeur in goal right now? At least get something accomplished in that time.
Again.
Look at the record. It speaks for itself. Lou knows what he’s doing.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The Devils SBN Blog
Look carefully
They are extremely easy to play against. Pay careful attention to where the other team scores their goals from. Most are inside the dots and on rebounds. There is no physical presence on the blueline. And while they are much better on the forecheck Michael Rupp and David Clarkson were the only true physical forwards. While you are correct that there are not many number one defensemen in the league, optimistically the best the Devils have are a group of number three defensemen. Fortunately, the last two years I think the Devils drafted very well, but that will not help them this coming year. That’s why it’s imperative to sign Travis Zajac. And they need to sign him long-term.
I agree that the Devils should sign Zajac and for more than 2 years.
However, most teams in the NHL score goals in the slot and on rebounds. That’s why teams send players to screen goalies, cycle down in the corners to clear space in the slot, etc. It’s the area right in front of the goalie and a quick (and accurate) shot there will be too close for most goalies to even stop. The same goes for rebounds.
And the Devils have White and Salvador on the blueline for physical presence. But overall, the team isn’t soft. There wasn’t one Devil last season unwilling to take or give physical contact.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The Devils SBN Blog
What???
Are you saying Colin White is physical???? The guy is afraid to throw a check ever since his little eye injury. When he does hit someone like against Carolina he is out of position. Ask any Devil fan and they will tell you Colin White sucks. He doesn’t take the body, he isn’t productive, doesn’t protect Marty, and is always out of position. I can’t believe Lou gave him a no trade clause and a 3 million dollar contract. Which pays more than Jamie Langenbrunner’s contract.
White got his deal back in 2006.
And White had 126 hits last season, most among defensemen (Salvador had 121); fourth on the team behind Rupp, Holik, and Clarkson – three players who were primarily playing physical roles.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The Devils SBN Blog
While their ranks in the league and conference were good, the penalty killing was in the lower half of the league averages. Often they had trouble clearing the puck out of the zone. Plus on the offensive end they were nonexistent. Which is a testament to the skill of the top two lines. Paul Martin is supposed to run the power play and even his father in an interview said he was never a scorer. And since Colin White eye injury he is not the physical presence he once was. We as Devil fans were spoiled during the Scott Stevens, Scott Niedermayer, and Ken Daneyko era. I hope the current Defense Corps continues their play but I’m not optimistic.
Interesting take. Not sure what will happen with your player’s case. I bet Lou gets him to sign before with a progression deal. He did it with Parise. Figure similar as retaining Zajac LT is a necessity for the Devs.
I’m from Battle and adding your link. Hope we can exchange.
Derek
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