What Would You Give Up to Make Ilya Kovalchuk a New Jersey Devil?

Seems most of the reason Kovy/ATL can’t get a deal done is that he wants the max under next year’s cap, which would be about $7M per. The package that the Devils would have to give up – probably Clarkson, Bergie, Halischuk, and a conditional first-rounder – is way too high for a guy who would become the highest-paid player on the team.

I won’t say his points wouldn’t help – imagine a PP with Elias, Parise, Kovy, Langenbrunner, and Greene (or Rolston on a 5-on-3) – but I don’t want the highest-paid player on the Devils to be a scoring winger who is at best a wash and at worst a liability.

Not to mention signing Kovalchuk to a long-term max contract might not be the best idea with Paul Martin an UFA this summer AND Parise/Langenbrunner’s contracts expiring after next season. If trading for Kovy means Lou has to lowball Martin/Langs/Parise the next few years it is absolutely not worth it.

But i would deal martin n zharkov(which kills me, but im tryna be realistic) 2010 2nd round (depending) n if needed someone like leblond or peters.

frankly, you don’t EVER mess with a team thats doing as well as NJ is right now. Devils are never a high scoring team and that won’t change any time soon. I can’t think of any other team in the league that needs Kovy any LESS than the Devs do right now. All we really need is Paul Martin and Clarkson back.

while his offensive numbers are impressive at first glance, there’s one thing that sticks out to me right away..

he’s been on the ice for 604 goals for, but he’s also been on the ice for 693 goals against.

a career -89.

blame the defense he’s had to play with all you want, but no matter how you try and sugar coat it, he’s a defensive liability. There’s no way you can put up that many points, have a +/- that awful, and still blame it on the other guys he’s had to play with.

I’d hardly expect him to end up on another cup contender either, but i’ve seen stranger things happen.

I read the entire post and keeping in mind exactly the conditions of what John posted, I wouldn’t give up Clarkson (seems to be a favorite), Zharkov, or any other prospect. I have watched Kovalchuk play against the Devils, Rangers & Islanders and have always come to the same conclusion… He is LAZY and would NEVER want him in a Devils sweater no matter how talented he is. Any player that doesn’t play both sides of the ice doesn’t fit in New Jersey and leading back to my other thread; I’d take Niedermayer as a more suitable pick up prior to the playoffs.

Not that I’d want to acquire him, but here goes…

A 2010 2nd round pick that would become a first if he re-signed
A 2011 3rd round pick that would become a second if he re-signed
Johnny Oduya
Niklas Bergfors (or Vladimir Zharkov + Tyler Eckford)

Put me in the minority that thinks Kovalchuk could be a massive help this season, provided the price isn’t too high. I think it is quite possible he could be Alexander Mogilny (circa 2000-2001) all over again, and he ought to be motivated if traded to a contender as a rental because he can massively increase his value with a strong playoff run (see Hossa, Marian, circa 2008). Keeping in mind that he is a rental only, here’s what I would offer:

Dainius Zubrus, Matt Fraser, a prospect*, a conditional draft pick**, and everyone’s favorite: future considerations***

• The prospect would not be an elite prospect, meaning I place Clarkson, Bergfors, and that level of player off-limits. I’d discuss someone like Pikkarainan, Zharkov, Halischuck, maybe even Corrente or Eckford (though I’d rather not), but I’m not trading someone who has proven themselves at the NHL level.

• The conditional draft pick starts as a 3rd-rounder. Upgrades to a 2nd-rounder if the Devils reach the conference finals this year, a 1st-rounder if the Devils reach the Stanley Cup Finals this year, a 1st AND a 2nd if the Devils win the Cup (and Kovalchuk remains healthy).

• Future considerations means Atlanta gets another prospect (and a higher-end one, although still not David Clarkson) if Kovalchuk should re-sign. Since he’s looking for 10 years and $100 million, I don’t see this coming into play.

Now for the breakdown. Zubrus is in there partially to off-set some of Kovy’s money, and partially as a replacement for Ilya in Atlanta. While he won’t replace a talent of that magnitude, I believe he can be a Top 6 forward in the right system, and his numbers ought to improve with more playing time — the talent is there, even if the effort and results aren’t every night. He also has a contract that Atlanta can manage, three more years at a cap-hit of $3.4mil per. Fraser can step in and take a regular shift on their blue line (not to mention allowing Atlanta to trade a veteran D-man for more prospects), and the further addition of a prospect and pick can help their rebuild.

Now to the Devils side of things. The Devils aren’t giving up anything they will miss significantly in this deal. I don’t think very many of us miss Zubrus right now…. plus, getting his money off the cap will help either this summer (Martin re-sign) or next (the summer of “Parise Gets Paid”). Fraser is a replaceable commodity — he was going to sit once Martin gets back anyhow, and there are defenders (Eckford, Corrente, et al) coming through the system who can replace him.

As for Kovalchuk, I agree he is an indifferent defensive player at times, but you’re not bringing him in to play defense! Put him on the second line with Elias and someone else (I like Clarkson, as to have someone who does the dirty work on that line, but I’ll settle for McAmmond or Rolston if you want another defensively responsible forward there), and let his linemates cover for his deficiencies while he tries to perforate the goalie with shots. He can be lazy at times, but how are other teams going to handle Elias-Kovalchuk on one line and ZZ Pops on another? Most teams don’t have two good shutdown units, which means one unit is going to have a much better opportunity to get on the scoreboard. The Devils can win a bunch of low-scoring games in the playoffs, but expecting a repeat of the ‘03 Finals when Marty had three shutouts and lost a 1-0 game is asking for a lot. I want to be able to win the 6-5 games as well if I have to, and Ilya Kovalchuk would help with that. Kovalchuk is also lethal on the power play, and ideally suited for one of the point positions given his shot and quick release. Special teams can win you a series, and he helps with that (it isn’t as if we’ll ask him to take shifts on the PK, although he used to in the past with Dany Heatley in Atlanta).

Here’s how I’d set out the lines if my trade went through:

Parise-Zajac-Langenbrunner / Kovalchuk-Elias-Clarkson / Rolston-McAmmond-Bergfors / Pandolfo-Niedermeyer-Pelley

If it works, great. If not, at least you took a shot at it, and he can go to the highest bidder in the off-season (or Lou can trade his rights at the draft). I’d take my chances that he’ll be a Mogilny or a Claude Lemieux rather than a Housley or Andreychuk/Gilmour.

Zubrus is my centerpiece because there’s money going back the other way to help offset cap numbers, because he isn’t helping the Devils these days, and because I frankly don’t like him. Fortunately, this isn’t the NBA trade rules (equalizing salaries), but there is a need for some money to go back to Atlanta — not just to fit Ilya Kovalchuk in under the cap, but also so you have enough room to call a player or two up in case injuries strike again later in the season and long-term IR isn’t an option (remember Calgary had this issue after the Jokinen deal last year). While he has no value to me, I’m hoping Zubrus has enough value that Atlanta will take him as part of a deal in return.

As for the prospects, you can play mix-and-match around them, because I don’t know what Atlanta is looking for and what they consider the best fits for them. I put a high value on Bergfors and Clarkson, who have proven some ability at the NHL level. That being said, their value is subject to change depending on what role you put them into — Clarkson isn’t nearly as valuble in a 4th-line/checking role, but will do well if you want a winger who does the dirty work for skilled players and with time on the power play. I like Clarkson’s offensive upside, I think he’d work well with Elias and a scorer, and I’m not ready to part with him in this kind of deal. As for Bergfors, you could talk me into him, because you can find other players with his skill set, even if the prospects in your system with similar ability have yet to prove it at the NHL level.

This is a “rental only” offer. I’m getting 20-30 games (plus playoffs) of Ilya Kovalchuk with no illusions that I’m going to be able to re-sign him. I’m looking to make a similar deal like Pittsburgh did for Hossa — Pittsburgh got Hossa and Pascal Dupuis for one NHL regular, one marginal NHL regular, one prospect (whose value was questionable, but probably not elite either at the time or now), and a 1st-round pick. More than that, and I’ll take my trade resources elsewhere, because there will be other players available on the rental market for the stretch run.