An Analysis of Kovalchuk's ES Goals from Oct 2008 thru Jan 2010

by Triumph44 on Nov 17, 2010 12:13 PM EST

Editor's Note: This kind of qualitative analysis is not only well done, but deserves to be on the front page.

Ilya Kovalchuk has struggled scoring goals ever since coming to New Jersey. His shooting percentage in New Jersey is well below his career average. In cursory glances at other players in Kovalchuk's class as pure goal scorers who changed teams mid-career - Selanne, Hull, Esposito, Bure, etc. - I can find no real comparable. Is Kovalchuk doomed to shoot around 10% as a Devil? Is there something we're missing?

I decided to look at video of all of Kovalchuk's even-strength goals as a Thrasher from the 08-09 and 09-10 seasons. I was looking for four things - was the goal scored off the rush, or as a result of sustained pressure? Was the goal a wrist shot, slap shot, tip-in, or what? Was it a one-timer or not? And lastly, was the goal scored off a backup goaltender or a starting goaltender? I think the last question is important. I didn't really define 'backup' - for instance, Kovalchuk scored one goal off JS Giguere, then one off Jonas Hiller, but I called them both starters. However, I called Vesa Toskala a backup. That was somewhat arbitrary, but being rigorous would only change 2 or 3 characterizations at most.

Anyway, here's the chart:

via b.imagehost.org

I hope that shows up well - it may be a tad small. Anyway, the results are pretty clear - Kovalchuk scores more goals off the rush than off sustained pressure. Now this could be for a number of reasons. First off, it could be just chance - 1½ years worth of even strength goals isn't very many. Second, it could be because Atlanta in general was a horrendous possession team - they didn't get many offensive zone faceoffs, and what faceoffs they did get, they tried to hand to Kovalchuk - he was an Atlanta leader in zone start. Third, most NHL players' stats may look like this, but I don't think I am going to try to break down all of their numbers; I may be drawing incorrect conclusions from data that is entirely consistent with what's expected.

The other alarming trend is the number of goals he scored against backup goalies - more than a third of his goals were against non-starters. I don't think we would see that if we examined any Devils' player with 20 goals over this span; the Devils usually face starting goaltenders. Were Kovalchuk's goal and shooting % numbers inflated because of the number of backup goaltenders he faced? How large a drop-off should we expect now that he isn't seeing Patrick Lalime every time he plays Buffalo?

Still, we're left with a kind of conundrum here - Kovalchuk is not a good defensive player, and yet it appears from this data that he might be better suited being given defensive zone starts. Furthermore, his bad defense may be why in part he scores so many goals off the rush, so fixing his defense may impair his offense. It's up to MacLean and the coaching staff to get Kovalchuk working to his full potential - I think it's a good start to be using Zubrus on that line instead of Zajac.

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Comments

Amidst the race for explanations for how the habs beat the caps, one thing that came out is that the caps continuously had the habs on their heels and couldn’t get chances off the rush, as the habs were afraid or coached not to be aggressive. Maybe with kovy trams are coached to attack because he’s not a good defensive player and he hence gets plenty off chances off the rush.

I can’t link right now, but search japers rink for a fan post by Kewibr looking at Ovechkin’s goals last season. Kewibr starting his own blog jumping the glass and looked at many of the other capitals as well. The caps weren’t a very good corsi team last year, only 51% fenwick, so the caps forwards could be decent comparables.

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by red army line on Nov 17, 2010 1:26 PM EST reply actions

that’s a much more counter-intuitive thought than i’m willing to accept right now. the idea that joe defenseman is going to attack when kovalchuk is on the ice doesn’t make very much sense to me.

by Triumph44 on Nov 17, 2010 1:42 PM EST up reply actions

Or maybe it’s strong offensive lines as well—Thornton, Datsyuk/Zetterberg, Ovechkin, Krejci etc, who’d attack when given the chance.

by red army line on Nov 18, 2010 9:38 AM EST up reply actions

Interesting analysis. Almost makes me wish we had Gomez in his prime back to center for Kovy…

by Richer on Nov 17, 2010 1:54 PM EST reply actions

This is a pretty interesting read.

Regarding the backup goalies, did Atlanta play a disproportional amount of backup goalies? That could be a reason why he has more than expected.

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by George E. Ays on Nov 17, 2010 2:58 PM EST reply actions

without looking, i would say that atlanta plays backup goalies more often, which i thought i alluded to in my post but i guess i didn’t. i don’t think kovalchuk is ‘cherry-picking’ against bad goalies, but if you play backup goalies more often, you’re probably more likely to score more goals than if you were playing starting goalies. it’s interesting that off the top of my head, three guys listed among gabe’s shooting percentage champions are players from awful teams (kovalchuk, horton, boyes). as a result, they probably face backups more often than shooters from average or above-average teams.

by Triumph44 on Nov 17, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions

I hate to say this straightforward, but I was worried about this. I warned people that Kovy never faced defenses and goaltending like he is in this division, and usually the Devils draw #1 goalies.

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by DownGoesAvery on Nov 17, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions

what do you mean he never faced them? he faced them 4 times a year.

by Triumph44 on Nov 17, 2010 5:27 PM EST up reply actions

While some teams may choose to play their backup goalies against some pretty bad Atlanta teams, others do not. While 17 against backups may be a lot, it’s still not the majority of goals scored.

Not to mention that some teams run a 1A/1B tandem of goalies.

Plus: Kovalchuk is actually one of the few forwards who consistently face tough competition, as found by Derek Zona at the Copper & Blue back in May. Mind you, he didn’t outscore the competition by much; but other teams knew full well who Kovalchuk was and put out their best players against him – regardless of goaltender.

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by John Fischer on Nov 17, 2010 7:42 PM EST up reply actions

It might be somewhat telling to compare the goaltenders in the games where Kovy did NOT score and see if the majority of them were starting goalies. If I counted right, there were only 4 multi-goal games in that list, so that was 44 out of what, 120 total games? Plus, just because some were starters, but being starters on poor teams and not necessarily top 15 goalies. There’s an awful lot of “bad teams” showing up on that list. He obviously benefited from playing in the Southeast. It would also be interesting to see the combined win-loss records of teams he did score against (by season) vs. those he didn’t score against. Without doing an in-depth analysis, but eyeballing the list above, I’d have to say he scores a significant number of his goals against poorer teams. With the Devils playing so many games in one of the strongest divisions in hockey, his odds of scoring a lot of goals seems to be lower that what we may have expected.

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by FrankG929 on Nov 17, 2010 8:15 PM EST up reply actions

I’m not sure I’d worry so much about the comparison between “starting” goalie and “backup” goalie. A lot of that is somewhat arbitrary, as Triumph made mention of above…. and a lot of it is relative. Guys who would be backups on good teams are starters on bad ones, simply based on the quality of netminder available to a coach to start.

Rather than ask if Atlanta faced a disproportionate number of “backup” goalies, might it be more informational to break down the goalies Atlanta faced by save percentage? Could it be that Kovy picks apart second-tier goaltending and struggles against the elites?

I suppose I could do the research and answer this one myself if I get some time. Might make for some interesting conclusions.

by acasser on Nov 17, 2010 9:34 PM EST up reply actions

i think that’s unlikely, and even if it were the case, i would be tempted to simply call it variance. these theories exist in football and baseball about certain teams and players, and it doesn’t really make intuitive sense to me.

by Triumph44 on Nov 17, 2010 10:18 PM EST up reply actions

might it be more informational to break down the goalies Atlanta faced by save percentage?

It does probably make more sense to assign starting/backup based on their ES save percentage.

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by George E. Ays on Nov 18, 2010 8:49 AM EST up reply actions

that’s pretty much what i did, fwiw

by Triumph44 on Nov 18, 2010 9:55 AM EST up reply actions

part of what makes the devils division strong is (ostensibly) having themselves in it. they still get 6 games against the islanders. and now kovalchuk gets 4 games against the thrashers, and 4 less games against the devils. i think you overestimate the effect of a division change. i think at most, it’s like 3 goals a season, and even that seems high. a conference change, on the other hand, could be many more than that.

by Triumph44 on Nov 17, 2010 10:21 PM EST up reply actions

Goaltending and defenses in the Atlantic division is better than the southeast. That has something to do with it, too. I posted that a month or so ago in a gamethread.

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by DownGoesAvery on Nov 17, 2010 3:38 PM EST reply actions

Even though only 3 of the games we have played this season were against Atlantic rivals? I don’t think it has anything to do with the goaltending or defense of the Atlantic division, the defense has been doing a good job at shutting him down but that’s because he has been so typical. Kovalchuk has been trying too hard to score, he has been trying to rush the puck in the zone every time and dosen’t trust his linemate’s for help too often he tries too hard to be the center of attention and its getting him and the team no where. He has to realize when enough is enough, when he has the opportunity and sees a break in the defense he should make a move like everyone expects. But he needs to make good passing plays be grittier in the offense zone sometimes use his size and make room for his line mates. The goals will come as soon as they take the defensive attention off of him.

by pshapiro on Nov 17, 2010 6:38 PM EST up reply actions

I’m not trying to make excuses for the guy. His shots are down, and his shooting percentage is down. That’s all that matters. I mean, maybe the Devils just want him to settle down and play the NJ way, but if you spend $100 million on a guy, you’re not paying him to be an average checker, we have plenty of those signed, just let the guy be explosive. Now, standing in the neutral zone waiting for a breakaway is unacceptable, it’s lazy, it’s not being a good teammate, but if he gets an early jump and puts extra pressure on the opposition’s defense, that is fine, very aggressive style, and the Devils could use that because on paper, this is a good offensive team.

Come on, this screams coaching change. I’m sorry, I’ve given MacLean a chance, but it isn’t working. Kovy had more goals under Lemaire.

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by DownGoesAvery on Nov 17, 2010 10:00 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t know that this data screams “coaching change”, but it certainly calls for adjustments. I’ve said on a few occasions that part of what is necessary is to put players together whose styles are complementary, rather than trying to shove square pegs into round holes.

We see Ilya Kovalchuk scores a ton of goals off the rush. On the other hand, we’ve seen fewer goals scored from zone work, implying that the cycling game isn’t his strongest suit. Therefore, wouldn’t it make more sense to pair Kovalchuk with guys who will play more of a rushing/counter-attack style, and less sense to pair Kovalchuk with players who play the cycle game?

Kovalchuk had good chemistry and good numbers with Elias last season. I think those two should be re-united for an extended period of time, and not just the six-or-so periods we saw during the road trip in California. Patrick is still the best set-up man the Devils have (and leads the team in assists)…. and I can’t think of too many players on this roster who are willing to consistently carry the puck and who Ilya Kovalchuk might accept doing much of the lugging for him instead of the big Russian trying to always beat everyone one-on-three with the puck. It would also appear to make sense for the third guy to be a strong forechecker, perhaps a young player (or a rotation of two young players) whose job it would be to apply pressure to puck carriers and opposition “D” and try to force turnovers.

I don’t have an ideal line for this spot, because we probably don’t want Patrick Elias at center right now (which this would seemingly require). But I don’t know that sticking Kovy with Zubrus and Zajac and Parise (when healthy) is the answer, either.

by acasser on Nov 18, 2010 9:57 AM EST up reply actions

I've added a jump

And put it on the front page. Good job, triumph44.

Here’s a question: While most of Kovalchuk’s goals are coming off rushes, there are few breakaway goals (6, if I’m not mistaken). Does this suggest that Kovalchuk would be suited for a counter-attack style of hockey as opposed to the more traditional breakout?

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by John Fischer on Nov 17, 2010 7:47 PM EST reply actions

Counter-attack, are you saying you want us to trap… (smile)

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by slackdog_rm on Nov 17, 2010 9:42 PM EST up reply actions

I said counter-attack, not trap.

That said, it would have them improve possession, get more shots, cut down on shots against, and many other benefits that usually leads to results, then why not? Style points and laments from outsiders about it mean nothing in the standings.

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by John Fischer on Nov 17, 2010 11:08 PM EST up reply actions