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The solution to Ilya Kovalchuk's woes

After the summer over "Kovy" leading up to the big 15 year, 100 Million dollar deal, we expected Kovalchuk to have at least 40 goals and challenge 100 points this season as the Devils line of Parise, Zajac, and Kovy became the most dangerous line in all of hockey.

A month and a half feels like a long time doesn't it?

Ilya Kovalchuk, besides the team itself, has clearly been the biggest disappointment of all the New Jersey Devils so far this season. Tallying only 10 points so far in 23 games (4 goals), posting a -11 rating (not NJ Devils hockey), and becoming youtube's favorite "quick laugh" with his shootout blunder against Buffalo this year, the Devils are clearly struggling with their identity between offensive minded and conservative. 

However, over the course of this 15 year contract, one thing has to get done before we can expect Ilya to put up the big numbers that he did in Atlanta. Critics point to NJ's system as the reason for Ilya's woes, but what he really needs is a big time, playmaking center (like a Backstrom with Ovechkin).

Today, Ilya plays along side Zubrus/Zajac and Vasyunov. These players will never be the type of player that Kovalchuk can play with. Kovalchuk's style is involves getting lost behind the play, having his linemates set him up, and unleashing that big one timer/shot to change the course of hockey games. While with Altanta, Ilya played with the following superstar players: Marc Savard, Marian Hossa, Dany Heatley. These players were instrumental in playing along side Ilya, setting him up, and lightening his load by unleashing their skills as well. Notice that Ilya's numbers were the best when he played along side these players (especially with Savard from 2002-2006, Heatley from 2001-2005, and Hossa from 2007-2008). see statistics below. 

So what does Lou do from here?

Though I still think that the Devils have a real shot at making the playoffs this year (never give up hope right?), he really needs to look into acquiring another big name talent (the Devils have a lot of cap space coming off the books over the next 3-5 years with their older players most likely leaving), calling one up from the minors, or the draft.  There is a reason why Ilya was signed for 15 years and not one year! The Devils organization is experiencing some growing pains right now. As the NHL transitions to a younger game, the Devils are transitioning from a trap team to an offensive minded club. I realize that the Devils are last in the league in scoring but, like all things in sports, the right players must fit the scheme. The Devils need to change the team to fit their style, but to fit Ilya's needs they must acquire a big time playmaker. 

Regular season: Ilya Kovalchuk statistics 


 Regular season 
SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPtsPIM
















2001–02 Atlanta Thrashers NHL 65 29 21 51 28




2002–03 Atlanta Thrashers NHL 81 38 29 67 57




2003–04 Atlanta Thrashers NHL 81 41 46 87 63




LOCKOUT YEAR











2005–06 Atlanta Thrashers NHL 78 52 46 98 68



2006–07 Atlanta Thrashers NHL 82 42 34 76 66




2007–08 Atlanta Thrashers NHL 79 52 35 87 52




2008–09 Atlanta Thrashers NHL 79 43 48 91 50




2009–10 Atlanta Thrashers NHL 49 31 27 58 45




2009–10 New Jersey Devils NHL 27 10 17 27 8















Source: Wikipedia

All FanPosts and FanShots are the respective work of the author and not representative of the writers or other users of In Lou We Trust.

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Actually, not quite

First – when did Kovalchuk play with those players? Because he didn’t always have them. He definitely didn’t last season and he was lighting up opponents in Atlanta anyway.

Second – I think you need to go deeper. Look at the shooting percentages from each of those seasons. The range is from 12.0 – 17.6% with the exception of his 27 games in NJ (9.6%).

Kovalchuk is shooting at 6.6% right now.

As Gabe Desjardens proved, there’s a significant amount of transient ability (read: luck) in goal scoring in this post and in this follow up post.

Would putting Kovalchuk with offensive players help? Yes. But will it lead to more goals? Only if he gets more luck, really. It’ll eventually work itself out – few players slump for 82 games and I highly doubt Kovalchuk will be the lone exception to the concept of “regressing to the mean.”

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Nov 27, 2010 9:55 AM EST reply actions  

Ilya needs to play like he did today. He scores goals on the powerplay, usually shooting from between the left point and the half-boards, on the rush usually down the right wing, or in the slot. Somehow, the Devils’ passers have to find ways to get him the puck there and not try to force him into doing too much, because Kovy has been pressing since the first time he jumped onto the ice in a meaningful game this year. He’s not going to score 40, let alone more than that this season barring a miracle, and he may not next year either. He will be a perennial 35-goal scorer and be around 80 points though. He just needs to bring the same effort and intensity level on every shift, and forecheck, backcheck and create chances while not forcing the issue. Early in the season, he needed to shoot more, now he needs to score more. They should work together, right?

"Potential means you ain't done it yet" - Bill Parcells

by DownGoesAvery on Nov 27, 2010 4:42 PM EST reply actions  

I’m sorry but when he fanned on that shot this afternoon I wanted him just gone, off the team. The fact that this team might have jeopardized the re-signing of Parise for him makes me feel sick sometimes.

by whatjusthappened on Nov 27, 2010 6:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Mike Richards fanned on a shot at the point for the Flyers today, drawing a big laugh.

Yet, Flyers fans who suggest he should be gone would be laughed at.

Please put 2 and 2 together.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Nov 27, 2010 7:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Mike Richards has done far more for the Flyers than Kovalchuck has done for the devils.

by whatjusthappened on Nov 27, 2010 9:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, 5 1/3 years on a team would do that. Come back at the end of 2014-2015 and see where Kovy compares to Richards now.

Go Devils
Go Jets
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by FrankG929 on Nov 27, 2010 9:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Less than you think, actually. Richards got bumped off the first line and onto the third line, and he’s no longer their gritty annoying shutdown line center, last time I checked.

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the most unpredictable team in the NHL and where we defend Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, and the Caps' goaltending until the bitter end. That is to say, when someone tries to call BS on the Corsi numbers.
"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--the BSB statgeek

by red army line on Nov 28, 2010 5:55 AM EST up reply actions  

The bottom line is, there is no simple “solution” that anybody can just write up.

"Potential means you ain't done it yet" - Bill Parcells

by DownGoesAvery on Nov 27, 2010 4:42 PM EST reply actions  

I feel like sometimesbwhen kovalchuk is frustrated he just gives up and hits people and takes slap shots off rushes and misses ( i really hated that). And other times he has the normal jump in his step as he did yesterday and he WILL score. That’s probably the biggest difference but he’s always a factor in different ways which is the thing that is consistantly helpful

by KovyisLove on Nov 28, 2010 12:44 PM EST reply actions  

I agree that Kovy needs to be surrounded by better players in order to have a better chance at success. Too often he draws two defenders toward him and doesn’t have a teammate to pass to. He’s been making some good passes and should have a lot more assists than he does, but no one has been able to put them in the net. For his part, Kovy hasn’t adapted to the grinding, down-low style employed by the majority of his teammates.

The question is, to what degree should the team be built around getting the most out of Kovy? As much as I think it would help to put the ZIP line back together when Zach is healthy, Kovy and Zach play very different styles and I don’t believe that the ZIP line would really be an optimal use of either of our superstars.

by dr(d)evil on Nov 28, 2010 5:10 PM EST reply actions  

No, he doesn’t. He should be able to be productive (not elite) no matter who his linemates are, because he has done that at times over the past 8+ years.

"Potential means you ain't done it yet" - Bill Parcells

by DownGoesAvery on Nov 28, 2010 8:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree he should be productive no matter who his linemates are, but he was given the second $100M contract in NHL history to be elite, not just productive. We can blame his shooting percentage and lack of confidence for not being even productive, but he doesn’t have a teammate right now that can help him be productive while struggling or elite when he’s feeling it.

The problem, as I see it, is that he doesn’t fit in with the style of this team. Kovy is most effective in a counterattacking, off-the-rush kind of offense. Scoring off the rush has allowed him to be consistently productive even without the best linemates. He can also be deadly in a puck-possession offense if given some space in the high slot or outside of the faceoff dots and on one-timers on the power play. To get that kind of production out of him, he needs linemates who will draw defenders to them and can deliver crisp, accurate passes to him a la Savard, Heatley, or Hossa. What isn’t he good at? He’s just not a guy that scores much in tight. His shooting pattern is the polar opposite of Parise’s.

by dr(d)evil on Nov 29, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

The Atlanta Thrashers were built around Ilya Kovalchuk, for the most part. They also had a number of very high draft picks (Stefan, Kovalchuk, Heatley, Lehtonen) to supply top-tier talent for him…. and a lack of depth that meant their best results came from piling all their eggs into one basket.

The New Jersey Devils are not that team. Ilya Kovalchuk was brought here because of a perception that he was “the missing piece” (or one of them, anyhow). The team is not and will not be built around him, and there is no promise that the team will be able to draft that caliber of talent around him, no matter how good the Devils’ drafting has been (and there’s only one first-round pick of the Devils since 2000 who did not make it to the NHL). Nor will Kovy necessarily get all the best talent on his line, because the Devils have enough talent to populate multiple lines and will look for some degree of balance.

The other thought I took away from this article is the concept that the Devils are not constructing lines to help Ilya Kovalchuk out in a similar fashion to what he had in Atlanta. And in that particular category, I believe there are two things that haven’t been done for an extended period this season:

  • I think he needs someone who will dominate the puck on his line, so that he’s less inclined to try and do everything himself. More than that, it almost has to be a veteran in this role, because I don’t know that a rookie or other inexperienced player would have the stature and cojones to stand up to Kovalchuk’s desire to rush end-to-end with the puck. The Devils don’t really have this sort of player — Scott Gomez would be perfect for this, but I don’t want that ugly contract and I suspect he’d veto any prospective trade back to NJ — but Patrick Elias probably comes closest. Not only does Elias like to play with the puck on his stick, but he’s a natural playmaker and he had excellent chemistry and numbers with Kovy last season (Kovy was 10-17-27 in 27 regular season games, mostly with Elias at center). Then again, truly gifted playmakers are very hard to find in this league and often get compensated very handsomely. There aren’t many players like Marc Savard out there…. maybe Joe Thornton and Nicklas Backstrom would fit into that category, but it isn’t a terribly long list after them.
  • I think that he also needs someone with some finishing ability on his line, in order to draw some attention away from him. Now, there isn’t a Heatley or a Hossa to be had right now…. Zach Parise might come closest if this Devils’ roster were fully healthy, but the Devils are somewhat short on proven finishers (why Kovy as acquired in the first place). Of the youngsters we’ve seen, perhaps Mattias Tedenby has that sort of potential in him, although it then becomes a lot of pressure to put on the kid. If there’s someone who can take some attention, it gives Ilya more room to work with and fewer defenders to try and beat…. or teams can continue to do what they’ve done and Ilya becomes an expensive decoy while someone else nets a ton of goals.

Perhaps when Johnny Mac next shakes up the lines to try and get some offense, he could shift Elias and slot in a third guy there? I could live with Kovy-Elias-Tedenby, or even Kovy-Arnott-Elias if one feels the need to have a “true center” on the line (although you could go with the former and simply slip in Pelley or Mair for defensive zone draws if that’s a concern with Patty).

Not saying that Ilya shouldn’t be changing his game and what he does to maximize what he gets with this team…. but with a talent like his, we could at least meet him part of the way there. Square pegs and round holes and all that.

by acasser on Nov 29, 2010 9:15 PM EST reply actions  

Some corrections from an Atlanta fan

I’m a little late to this party, so sorry, but I need to correct some of what David said about Kovy’s linemates in Atlanta.

It is indeed correct that Kovy played with Marc Savard. In fact, when the decision was made to allow Savard to walk as a free agent and to not make a serious offer, there was a lot of thought by the fans and probably GM Waddell too that Savard might be a Kovy creation who would bomb on his own. They did play well together but clearly Savard was not a Kovy creation.

Kovy never played with Hossa except on the PP and in the final season when Hossa was a Thrasher. In desperation to get Hossa jump started he got placed on a line with Kovy in that final season, but he spent all of his previous 2 seasons playing with Kozlov and whatever scrub the coach could round up to make a line. Kovy and Hossa played together only 20-30 games tops.

I may be wrong about this as it was years ago, but I don’t remember Kovy and Heatley playing together that much either. i seem to recall that the Thrashers had them on different lines so that they could ice 2 lines with some scoring punch.

Kovy actually spent a good chunk of his career playing with 3rd and 4th line bums pressed into top line duty. The Thrashers basically would try to pair Kozlov with somebody good (Hossa, then Little) plus any bum they could get to round off the line (Belanger, White, etc.). Kovy’s best regular linemate was Savard, but even then the team would just put some bottom 6 forward on the top line at RW to flush it out. Basically Kovy showed an ability to play with anybody in Atlanta, so that meant that he rarely had regular linemates after Savard left. Some of the guys he’s been paired with are Holik, Thorburn, Sim, Stefan, Melanby (got 3rd line minutes at the end of his career in Atlanta even though mostly working a 1st line job with Kovy) and Rucchin. Those are the “good” ones. I shudder to look back into the past for the guys he played with early on.

Sorry guys, but given how Kovy scored like mad in Atlanta while playing with guys like Holik and Thorburn (you would not believe how good that line looked for the few weeks they played together) I have to disagree with your premise on his current problem. He spent too many years having guys like that ride along with him and he still scored for me to think that his problem is simply one of needing better linemates. I will say that you may be onto something in saying that he needs linemates to set him up. Even the bad guys he played with so much in Atlanta would do that to him.

by Zontar on Dec 7, 2010 1:48 PM EST reply actions  

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