The Margin of Wins and Losses by the New Jersey Devils and the NHL

by John Fischer on Mar 16, 2010 7:46 PM EDT in Devils Issues, Views & Analysis

In the comments of the recap of the recent 3-2 win by the New Jersey Devils over the Boston Bruins, user max16s had this question to say:

I wasn't impressed with this victory. The devils—for a while now—-have been a one goal win team. I’d like to see a stat on what percentage of Devils wins are by a single goal (even including empty netters) compared to the league average. I would not be surprised if a disturbing number of Devil wins are by a single goal. And this has been a trend over the past few seasons—-of course we all remember not being able to stretch the lead to two against Carolina. In the past we have attributed it to poor offense, but with the offensive skill on this team, I am really wondering why we very rarely "put a team away" as it were and grab that extra goal to ice it. This sense of urgency needs to change if the team is looking to make a long run. Especially if you want to have a long run, in that first round against a team like Boston you have to simply put them away.

Well, I have to disagree with the initial thought, and I don't know how it would bear out over past season. However, I can answer the initial question about the Devils' margin of victories for this season. It's a feature, not a bug.

Fortunately, the NHL keeps track of the team's record in games decided by one goal, two goals, or three and more goals. However, rather than just linking to this and saying, "Have at it," I dug a little deeper to see how the Devils stack up against the league in each category. Are the Devils relying on too many wins in one goal games? Or is it in line with the rest of the league? What else can be learned from the breakdown of the Devils' 41-24-3 record?

Note: The following numbers were compiled from NHL.com and before tonight's games were played.

One Goal Games

The Devils: In the 28 games decided by one goal that they have played this season, the Devils have earned a record of 20-5-3. Approximately 41.18% of all Devils games have been decided by one goal this season. 48.78% of the Devils' 41 victories have come in one-goal games; as are 20.83% of their 24 regulation losses.

The NHL: So far, the NHL has played a total of 1,027 games. A total of 483 victories have come in one goal games, or 47.03% of the season. Incidentally, there have been a total of 243 regulation one goal losses and 240 overtime or shootout losses, which are one goal losses by default. An average of all 30 teams yields 16.1 wins by one goal. The Vancouver Canucks have played least amount of games decided by one goal this season with 24 games, a record of 14-7-3. The Atlanta Thrashers have played the most amount of one goal games this season with 39 games, a record of 14-14-11.

In Comparison: Only four teams have more than the Devils' 20 one-goal wins this season: Phoenix (23), Pittsburgh (22), Chicago (21), and Los Angeles (21). Three other teams have matched the Devils' 20 win total: Nashville, Minnesota, and Colorado. In terms of regulation losses, only three teams have fewer losses by one goal: San Jose, Ottawa, and Dallas each have 4. The Devils are tied with Vancouver with the fewest amount of overtime/shootout losses with 3.

Incidentally, Edmonton, Carolina, and the Rangers have won the fewest one-goal games this season with 10. The worst record in one-goal games belongs to the New York Rangers. While the Thrashers have the most one goal losses with 14; the Rangers' 10-9-9 record yields a mere .357 winning percentage in the NHL. In contrast, the Devils can boast that they have the best winning percentage in games decided by one goal with .714.

Nevertheless, the Devils have been successful in one-goal games and the four teams with more wins by one goal either currently has as many points in the standings as the Devils or more. A plurality of the Devils' wins do come by one goal; however, I don't think it's significantly higher than the league breakdown of their wins. What makes the Devils stick out is that they don't often lose by one goal in addition to several wins; hence, they have more one goal wins than the league average.

I can't say from these numbers alone whether this is a result of the Devils not being able to put a team away, that would require looking closely at but it does suggest how effective they generally are in close games. I do think this evidence that in a tied or a one goal game, we can be confident in the Devils pulling through most of the time. I also think this answers the initial question. But why stop there? Besides, in the other margins of victory, it's not as good looking for New Jersey.

Two Goal Games

The Devils: They have played 21 two goal games this season, putting together a record of 11-10. 30.88% of the season so far has led to two-goal games. The 11 wins represent 26.83% of the Devils' 41 wins; whereas the 10 regulation losses represent 41.67% of regulation losses.

The NHL: Only 220 of the NHL's 1,027 games have ended by a margin of two goals: 21.42% of the season. The average number of wins by two goals this season has been 7.33. The Edmonton Oilers and Nashville Predators have each played more games that ended by two goals with 22. The Oilers have a record of 7-15 in those games, while the Predators have went 14-8. In contrast, the Tampa Bay Lightning have played the fewest amount of games that ended by two goals with 8, a record of 5-3.

In Comparison: The New Jersey Devils' record of 11-10 isn't so great, but they are in the top half of the league with a winning percentage of .524 (13th to be precise). Five teams are dead even at .500; but the range of winning percentage is very wide. The Washington Capitals are by far the best with a perfect 11-0 record in games ending by two goals. The Toronto Maple Leafs and Colorado Avalanche are both tied with the fewest amount of wins by two goals and the worst winning percentage (.231, each with a record of 3-10). Interestingly, the Devils are tied with Washington and Ottawa for the second more wins by two goals; Nashville leads the league with 14.

So the Devils are decidedly average in two goal games in terms of winning percentage. Yet, they are one of the few teams with more than 10 wins by two goals - well above the league average. Initially, in my opinion, I thought this made some sense. If they are up by one late, adding an empty net goal makes it a two goal game. Likewise, if they are down by one, an empty net goal against will also make it a two goal game. However, the numbers break that down only one way for New Jersey. While I can't say for certain that all empty net goals are like that, the Devils do have 10 empty net goals (tied for the league lead) yet only 2 (second fewest in the league) allowed. So much for that initial thought. I found a similar situation for the Devils in three or more goal games.

Three or More Goal Games

Note: In the NHL.com stats, this is just listed as three goals. Yet, all the numbers add up to a team's record; so it really represents all wins and losses by three or more goals.

The Devils: They have played 19 games where the margin of victory was by three or more, earning a record of 10-9. The 19 games represent 27.94% of the Devils season; while the 10 wins are 24.39% of all Devils' wins and the 9 losses are 37.5% of all regulation losses.

The NHL: 324 of the league's 1,027 games have been decided by three goals or more, or 31.54% of the season. The average number of wins by three goals or more this season has been 10.8. Four teams have played 27 games that ended by three goals or more, the most in the league: Pittsburgh (14-13), Ottawa (9-18), Philadelphia (16-11), and Tampa Bay (11-16). Nashville has played the fewest amount of games this season that were decided by three goals or more with 13: a record of 4-9.

In Comparison: Like with two goal games, the Devils' 10-9 record won't wow anyone. However, this is good enough for the eleventh best winning percentage in the league at .526. The Devils' 10 wins are just below league average, but their 19 games played is also below the average of 21.6 in the league. To give you some context for those numbers, the Devils are tied with Detroit, Boston, and Calgary with only 10 wins and are tied for 9th (there are a lot of ties, so among all 30 teams it'll show 17th). Vancouver has the most wins by three goals or more with 20; Edmonton, Atlanta, and Nashville have the fewest with 4; the best winning percentage goes to Chicago with an 18-4 record (.816); and the worst winning percentage is owned by Edmonton with a record of 4-16 (.200).

I think the wins by three or more goals may happen more than wins by only two goals because if a team can go up by two goals, they'll generally have the momentum within the game or part of the game to tack on additional goals to preserve their lead. For example, there's the recent 6-3 win by the Devils over the Rangers; it was 5-3 for the most of the third period until Travis Zajac slotted one through on a counter-attack to ensure the lead.

Again, like with the one goal games, the numbers alone don't suggest too much as to how the Devils need to perform in those games. A loss by three goals or more is usually the result of a poor performance by the team. A win by three goals or more is usually the result of a great performance the team. We want the Devils to have the latter, but that's not only easier said than done - getting the win alone is the goal in any game. Any margin is normally satisfactory.

Overall Comments

I do think it is clear that the Devils have not played in a disturbing amount of games in either category (though they are close to the highest number of two goal games played); but for a variety of reasons have an excellent record in one goal games and are just above .500 in the other two. More games in the NHL have been decided by one goal than the other two categories so far this season. Unless the whole league has a problem in getting that extra goal to put teams away, I don't think that's a fault for New Jersey.

With games becoming more and more vital for playoff positioning or just making the playoffs, it wouldn't surprise me if the Devils are more involved in close games. They will definitely be close in the playoffs, as teams and players work real hard to minimize mistakes. Given their success at one goal games so far this season, this shouldn't be a concern for the Devils going forward. That's why I see it as a feature and not a bug.

I will say that how the Devils' record breaks down is a bit surprising. I expected the Devils to do well in all three categories given their record of 41-24-3; but with such excellence in one goal games did strike me. I wish I had a better idea as to why. Is it Martin Brodeur? The mentality of the team? The Devils truly not being able to add to leads? The Devils able to make a lot of comeback wins? All of this? Something else entirely? Whatever you may think, I offer my thanks to max16s for the question leading to this post and to you for reading this. Please leave your thoughts, additional questions, corrections, and other pointers in the comments.

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Comments

Here's to more 1-goal games!

I think teams must psyche themselves out when they play the Devils and are down by a goal. All my Devils-hating friends whine all the time when the Devils go up by 1 goal “Oh great, now the Devils are gonna play shut-down hockey and win the game”. Whatever works.

Trying to watch Devs games at 4pm is a PitA.

by SinDonor on Mar 16, 2010 8:11 PM EDT reply actions

Right now, i’d take any win. But i’d enjoy watching the team dominate the other team offensively though

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by Kevin Sellathamby on Mar 16, 2010 8:29 PM EDT reply actions

My take...

A lot of numbers thrown out there but simple to understand. The Devils do play in a lot of 1 goal games. They don’t play a lot of OT/SO games. They are 8-3 in extra time. Those 10 empty net and 2 empty net allowed goals also suggest they play more 1 goal games (though some teams do pull their goalie when down 2..why not right?). Is this something to look at negatively? Maybe to the pessimists. Devils play well in close games. They have been that way ever since I’ve watched them. To me, a win is a win. (like Vin Diesel said, “It doesn’t matter if you win by an inch or a mile…Winning’s, winning.”) That’s a Devils goal night in and night out: TO WIN. And they are one of few teams that season after season they have a legitimate chance to win the Cup.

Also, this is another reason I find the Devils exciting to watch. People that place that boring stigma on the Devils are just idiots. 1 Goal games are fun to watch.

To those pessimists. Look on the bright side. Devils are 27-1 when leading after the 2nd period.

by Matthew Ventolo on Mar 16, 2010 11:09 PM EDT reply actions

agree

like the Vin Diesel quote lol the Fast and the furious great movie

by NJDevilsSteve on Mar 16, 2010 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions

1 goal wins part of Devils mastery.

The Devils have a reputation of being one of the toughest teams to beat when they get the lead. If you listen to the other teams broadcasts when they play New Jersey they always mention how their team must score the first goal. It is tougher to win those 1 goal games when you are playing a team that you know excels at winning these types of games. I myself enjoy watching the Devils shut down other teams in the 3rd period and watching the opposition get frustrated when they cannot come from behind to beat us..

Donald Vasquez

by don_vas on Mar 16, 2010 11:17 PM EDT reply actions

Is it Martin Brodeur? The mentality of the team? The Devils truly not being able to add to leads? The Devils able to make a lot of comeback wins? All of this? Something else entirely?

Yes.

Really, the ability not just to win 1 goal games, but to keep games as one goal games (which ultimately means holding off a comeback) speaks well of the Devils.

by elesias on Mar 16, 2010 11:19 PM EDT reply actions

The Dark Side of our "Identity"

Let me say thank you to John for following up on my criticism and my query so thoroughly— this was an interesting read and I’m glad I was able spur what turned out to be a very informative and important analysis.

Now my reaction to the findings: First, I think my initial intuition about the significant number of single goal victories by the Devils this season is confirmed by their being in the top 5 in the league in this category.

The counterpoint I am sensing a lot people have to my criticism of this fact is to say that it is actually positive thing; good teams win one goal games; moreover, look at the teams ahead of the Devils in single goal victories, they are all playoff bound teams. Point taken—I cannot deny that good teams do and must know how to win one goal games; I cannot deny that, as duly noted, the Devils system of play is well geared toward doing so; and I cannot deny that having a goalie like Marty especially helps in this regard as his play late in a game is often akin to a top closer in baseball who almost automatically secures a one run victory or his team.

These are all valid points and I largely agree with them—I do think that part of the reason the Devils are in the top five in one goal victories is because they are indeed a very good team. However, there is nothing intrinsically positive or problematic about one goal victories; in other words, one goal victories in and of themselves do not tell us very much; instead, context (and not just the statistic itself) is important in interpreting what the statistic means. While it is often a sign of a good team, it is not necessarily so, and in the context of the win over Boston, it behooves us as Devils fans (if we are to be not just loyal, but also critical, in our love for the Devils) to recognize the potential "dark side" of the one goal victory tendency on this team.

Monday night against Boston was a one goal victory, but anyone who saw the game knows that the positive attributes that tag onto a one goal victory do not aptly describe that game—rather, as the game summary noted, the Devils "hung on" to the victory. This kind of hanging on, in my judgment has been more prevalent in their play lately, and it was of course a conspicuous feature of the end of the last season. So we cannot simply applaud all one goal victories, the play that led to the one goal victory Monday night will surely have us out of the playoffs before any of us would like.

How to combat the potential dark side of being a one goal win team? I think this is one of those areas where coaching and leadership can make a bit of difference. It is also one of those areas where staying mentally tough and focused can make a difference. I know Lemaire made a point of saying this team would not sit on leads at the beginning of the season and it may be time to re-emphasize that with the team. There is enough offensive skill on this team such that we do not have to always rely on the one goal margin; indeed, with our defense being the most vulnerable portion of the team this year, we have to go get that extra one to take the pressure off of our D; yes, that means being flexible with our identity and mental attitude; we are a team comfortable playing the one goal game, we are system comfortable with it, and have been for a long time; but if we settle all too easily into that mode of play, without recognizing the strengths and weaknesses of our play and our personal this year, we can let our presumed and rigid "identity" get the best of us.

Now lets go get an extra one and beat Pittsburgh!

by max16s on Mar 17, 2010 12:20 AM EDT reply actions

This is all well and good, but it must be emphasized that the percentage of one goal games the Devils have been in is not significantly different from the percentage of one goal games in the league this season.

Which makes their record and success in one goal games stick out much more. It is a blessing, not a curse.

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by John Fischer on Mar 17, 2010 9:52 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Devils Leads

I agree with the initial sentiment that I would like to see the Devils win by more then just 1 goal. Personally I break down the hockey game by period and the Devils lost periods 2 and 3 last night to Boston. Granted we won period 1 3-0 which was good enough to win the game. But there lies the problem with the Devils they enjoy starting strong but they finish weak. It has been indicative of this team for the past few season which is why I think they can NOT get past round 1 of the playoffs. Not sure if its because they are worn out or what …

by MB30 on Mar 17, 2010 12:33 AM EDT reply actions

I think all that matters is we aren’t giving up leads in the 3rd period. As long as we are holding on to our 1 point leads I’m happy. If our 2 or 3 point leads become 1 point wins in the 3rd I’m ok with that too.

by C.J. Richey on Mar 17, 2010 2:06 AM EDT reply actions