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Travis Zajac: Selke Contender?

Editor's Note: This was a very good FanPost and warrants further attention on the Front Page. Why? Research was done, comparisons were made, and an argument was presented.  Is it the end-all argument for Selke? I don't think so, but at the least it further proves how well Zajac has been playing on defense. 

The Selke Trophy. The annual award given to the forward who demonstrates the most skill in the defensive component of the game. Even now, fans are already nominating who should be the finalists for the trophy. Websites such as The Bleacher Report are putting up polls with the likely candidates for fans to vote on. The constantly absent nominee? Travis Zajac.

Travis Zajac. The second 'Z' of the formidable ZZPops and, lately, ZZZ lines. A member of the Devils' top PK unit. A member of the Devils' top PP unit. The guy who stepped up after Madden left Jersey and Pandolfo's role became smaller and smaller as Lemaire often chose to healthy scratch him.

While some NHL trophies are awarded based purely on numbers, the Selke isn't one of them. However, looking at the numbers on and off the ice can help decide on the candidates. So let's look at those and decide for ourselves, no? As always, all numbers are from Behind The Net.

Star-divide

To start off, I filtered all NHL forwards by assuming "eligible" forwards would have played at least 60 games so far, and have at least 12.00 TOI/60.

 

DIFF GA/60 = GAOFF/60 - GAON/60

I feel this value is probably more significant than GAON/60, as it nullifies the inevitable "omg he's a Devil no wonder his numbers are amazing LOL" arguments. This number represents how the particular player affects the goals allowed per 60 mins, regardless of whether his team allows 1 or 2 goals per game or 6+. Ranking the players in decreasing numbers:

 

Name

Team

QUALCOMP

GAON/60

GAOFF/60

DIFF GA/60

S. Pahlsson

CBJ

0.047

2.03

3.00

0.97

C. Glencross

CGY

-0.041

1.67

2.38

0.71

J. Staal

PIT

0.040

2.16

2.83

0.67

M. Ryder

BOS

0.017

1.69

2.35

0.66

R. Vrbata

PHX

0.032

1.63

2.29

0.66

D. Penner

EDM

-0.028

2.58

3.21

0.63

T. Zajac

N.J.

0.089

1.65

2.27

0.62

D. Setoguchi

S.J.

-0.010

1.86

2.46

0.60

W. Simmonds

L.A.

0.005

1.83

2.42

0.59

 

While you may look at the numbers and argue that using DIFF GA/60 alone, there would be better candidates, the QUALCOMP says volumes. The quality of Zajac's competition has been about twice as strong as the other names above him.

 

Pure GAON/60 numbers:

 

Name

Team

QUALCOMP

GAON/60

R. Vrbata

PHX

0.032

1.63

T. Zajac

N.J.

0.089

1.65

C. Glencross

CGY

-0.041

1.67

M. Ryder

BOS

0.017

1.69

A. Ovechkin

WSH

0.062

1.74

P. Prucha

PHX

0.049

1.75

P. Hornqvist

NSH

-0.039

1.79

M. Sturm

BOS

0.097

1.80

W. Simmonds

L.A.

0.005

1.83

 

I try to avoid looking solely at GAON/60, because it tends to be heavily biased towards defensively-responsible teams and their coaching style. While New Jersey has dramatically moved away from the defense-first approach, and nothing stresses this out as much as Mr. Lamoriello signing Kovalchuk, it's ridiculous to think I'm going to change what the league and the other fans think about the Devils. The Devils have been stapled as a defense only team, even when they're not, but that's another post.

As you'll see from the above table, most of the teams come from "defensive" teams, which is no surprise (how Ovechkin is on there, I have no idea). Still, Zajac's number and rank are fairly impressive.

 

How does he do against the favored/popular candidates?

From the Bleacher Report's poll, the candidates were: Pavel Datsyuk, Chris Drury (the hell?), Marty Reasoner, Ryan Kesler, Jonathan Toews, Mike Fisher, Ryan Callahan, Alex Burrows, and Scott Nichol.

The finalists for the past three years are: Pavel Datsyuk, Ryan Kesler, and Mike Richards in 2009. Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, and John Madden in 2008. Samuel Pahlsson, Rod Brind'Amour, and Jay Pandolfo in 2007.

Name

Team

QUALCOMP

GAON/60

GAOFF/60

DIFF GA/60

T. Zajac

N.J.

0.089

1.65

2.27

0.62

P. Datsyuk

DET

0.028

2.15

2.48

0.33

C. Drury

NYR

0.030

2.28

2.25

-0.03

M. Reasoner

ATL

-0.020

2.72

2.81

0.09

R. Kesler

VAN

0.034

3.13

1.84

-1.29

J. Toews

CHI

0.044

2.36

2.40

0.04

M. Fisher

OTT

0.058

2.86

2.73

-0.13

R. Callahan

NYR

0.070

2.27

2.39

0.12

A. Burrows

VAN

0.004

2.30

2.21

-0.09

S. Nichol

S.J.

-0.085

2.55

2.21

-0.34

M. Richards

PHI

0.112

2.33

2.46

0.13

H. Zetterberg

DET

0.044

2.70

2.35

-0.35

J. Madden

CHI

0.010

2.46

2.21

-0.25

S. Pahlsson

CBJ

0.047

2.03

3.00

0.97

R. Brind’Amour

CAR

-0.031

3.35

2.53

-0.82

J. Pandolfo

N.J.

0.047

2.64

1.90

-0.74

The numbers amaze me. The only "contender" facing tougher competition is Mike Richards of the Philadelphia Flyers, but has decreased DIFF GA/60. The only "contender" with a better DIFF GA/60 is S. Pahlsson, but faces much worse competition than Zajac does.

 

The Result?

Keep in mind this happened in a difficult year for New Jersey. Madden, the longtime Devils' champion as the checking forward, left in the offseason for Chicago. Yes, Lou brought in Rob Niedermayer, who hasn't been bad, but hasn't been a terrifying defensive force either. To add to the Devils' headaches, Paul Martin, the top defenseman on the roster, took a half-a-season break from the league to nurse an injury. While the Devils' defense struggled for a while, Zajac continued to put up strong numbers.

However, I know Zajac's nomination for the trophy is very unlikely. Part of it is the bias the league has towards the Devils', part of it is because Zajac gets overlooked quite a bit because of Zach Parise. While Parise is amazing, I feel a lot of the magic that happens between the two on the ice gets unfairly credited to Parise.

 

Either way, this is why I think Travis Zajac should at least be considered for the 2009-2010 Selke Trophy. How do you feel about this topic? Let me know in the comments

All FanPosts and FanShots are the respective work of the author and not representative of the writers or other users of In Lou We Trust.

2 recs  |  Comment 11 comments |

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great stuff

if the Hockey Writers’ Association payed any credence to ‘new’ stats like QUALCOMP and GAON/60 he’d have to be at least a finalist for the Selke, but that’s about as likely as Don Cherry wearing a basic black suit or pulling his head out of his butt.

by richer44 on Apr 5, 2010 11:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Good work. James Mirtle did a bit of work on the top defensive forwards as well. A few familiar faces show up, but Zajac actually ranks much higher than everyone’s Selke faves like Richards and Kesler

Cheers, Complaints, homerism and bashing of mediocre pop musicians in 140 Characters
"DO NOT get stuck behind Kyle Wellwood in the buffet line. This isn't really etiquette, but it will prevent you from starving to death"- Down Goes Brown on Etiquette for Jason Spezza's wedding

by Kevin Sellathamby on Apr 6, 2010 8:30 AM EDT reply actions  

This is the type of effort I love to see in a FanPost.

In terms of even strength goals against, then, yes, Zajac’s at the top of the list. Unfortunately, it’s questionable as to whether he has the reputation, the penalty killing, and I’m sure advanced stats users will want to look at shots against too.

This isn’t a knock on you, it’s just a jumping off point. I’m very glad that you went through this effort. Expect it to be front paged on a non-game day (tomorrow).

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Apr 6, 2010 4:53 PM EDT reply actions  

I hate looking at penalty killing numbers because there are way too many factors that contribute. I feel in shorthanded situations, the unit as a whole puts up numbers instead of the individual forward more than in even strength situations.

And yes, I fear Zajac’s non-existant reputation is what will ultimately kill his chances. I mean, if I can go to NHL.com and order Claude Lemieux, Brian Rolston, and Brian Gionta merchandise, I should be able to find something for a key and often underlooked part of the team (something besides a jointly autographed picture… pathetic!) in Zajac.

As a forward, he plays on the top offensive line, is used in key defensive situations, is the primary guy on faceoffs, is on the top powerplay unit, is on the top penalty kill unit, and responded brilliantly to Lemaire’s criticism of his lack of shooting. What more could the league need to give him the reputation he deserves?

/rant

Anywho, kudos

by Jago on Apr 6, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

He wont be nominated...

because he is a devil. Very little attention from other fans and writers is directed here (and whatever is is usually at Marty, Parise, or now Kovy).

There was a post about underrated players the other day on a rangers (gasp!!!) blog. Langenbrunner was mentioned as one of the most underrated players in the league. Zajac is definitely more so than him.

by skly27 on Apr 6, 2010 6:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Agree...

as do most of us that because we’re the Devils from NJ, we get less attention than other teams or fanbases do. Therefore, Zajac’s tremendous defensive skills on the offensive side of the puck go in large part unnoticed. He definitely deserves a bit more recognition for his defensive prowess than he gets. That’s for sure.

by czman007 on Apr 8, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

There's another point...

to why the Devils don’t get any attention. The only attention they got was when Marty got hurt and everyone saying the Devils are done. Even the Kovalchuk trade wasn’t that big around sports. Think of he going to the Rangers or even the Kings. Zajac has far better numbers than the canidates. And Drury?? I mean c’mon, the guy is usefull on the pk and thats it. He’s getting paid over 7 million to play defense and pick up another 20 point season. The trophy is already determined and it’s probably Datsyuk. Again. Madden had a better defensive game then Datsyuk had 2 years ago. But yet again the Devils don’t get the attention. Believe me I’m not mad about it. But with these numbers, Zajac has to be atleast in the running. Every trophy Bettman gives out to a player is on NBC’s game of the week.
Awesome post man.

"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods

by RolliePollieKovy on Apr 7, 2010 6:08 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree with everything here...

But at least a part of the issue is the orginazation’s refusal to promote their own players. Hard to point the finger at Bettman or hockey fans in general when our own GM doesn’t speak up for guys who should get award consideration. Sometimes I feel Lou choices to work under the ‘cover of darkness’, so to speak.

On balance though, I’l take winning over awards.

Speaking of under-rated – who is the active leader in career +/- among forwards? Hint – it’s a career Devil who has never been considered for a major award. (Well, other then this years Masterton).

by Bobby V on Apr 7, 2010 7:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Great post

Interesting factoid about the leading active forward in +/-, Patrick Elias with a +197. Only two people, both defensemen, are ahead of him. One of these is Nick Lidstrom who plays about 59 minutes per game for the franchise that was named the best over the last decade (narrowly beating out our Devils), the other, Chris Chelios has played about 59 years.

by DevilsDDS on Apr 8, 2010 7:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

I like that Lou doesn't do that...

If he does then he brings the media into this and could distract the players (a.k.a. Glen Sather). I really don’t think you need commercials to win a trophy. Pens fans should know because a third of them are bandwagon fans. It pisses me off that every year Crosby and Ovie get about 2 or 3 trophies or more. Yeah they’re great players and I am a fan of Ovie but give some other players a chance. the Award show isn’t for the fans it is for promoting the game. In my mind they’re not going anywhere unless they get back with ESPN.

"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods

by RolliePollieKovy on Apr 7, 2010 8:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Count me as one who believes he at least deserves consideration for it.

While it would be nice for some Devils’ players to get the recognition and national attention they rightfully deserve, you can also count me as one who sort of enjoys that there are fans of 29 other teams who scratch their collective heads in wonderment at how the Devils continue to thrive with a “no name” defense and no award-winning players, etc.

by elesias on Apr 8, 2010 8:26 AM EDT reply actions  

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