Paul Martin: The Most Effective Defenseman Available on the Market This Summer
by John Fischer on May 13, 2010 11:57 PM EDT
in Devils Issues & Views
21 comments
Over the last few days, I've focused a lot of attention on New Jersey Devils defenseman Paul Martin. Before jumping into this final post about Martin (for at least the next few days), I'd like to explain what has gone on - in case you all missed it. It all started back when I did an entire overview of the Devils' free agents for the upcoming summer. Here's what I said about Martin:
A quick look at the UFA defensemen for summer of 2010 shows that Paul Martin could very well be the only player on the market who can lead a defense who isn't over 30. Yeah, Paul Martin's going to get paid this summer. Combine that with the fact that the Devils have only Andy Greene as a two-way defenseman, and keeping Martin is almost a must for New Jersey in my view. I thought Andy Greene was great in this past season, but I'd feel a lot more comfortable with Martin as the #1 instead of hoping Greene can repeat his 09-10 season.
Therefore, to confirm what I initially thought, I started looking at Paul Martin's effectiveness as a defenseman beyond what simple point totals or ice time would say. I first began with a With Or Without You analysis to demonstrate that Paul Martin largely has a positive effect on most of his teammate's Corsi% - the percentage that the Devils are attacking more so than the opposition.
I decided to dig deeper. Defense is a part of the game that isn't easily noticeable so aspects like hits or blocked shots stand out more. Behind the Net tabulates on-ice and off-ice numbers for every player in the league, and what better way to determine how effective a defenseman really was? If a defenseman is really among the best in the league, then he should have a positive impact on his team when he steps on the ice. I focused on shots against per 60 minutes (SA/60), goals against per 60 minutes (GA/60), shots for per 60 minutes (SF/60), and goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60); both their numbers on the ice as well as the on-impact, the difference between the stat for that player off the ice and on the ice. With the help of Derek Zona, I added adjusted Corsi/60 to emphasize each defenseman's own Corsi value (amount of shot attempts by team, higher is better) while accounting for where they initially started on the ice.
Since Paul Martin's 2009-10 season was cut short by injury, I decided to do this for two seasons: 2008-09, which was Martin's last full season, and 2009-10, Martin's most recent season. Through doing two seasons, we can see if any defensemen have improved or not. For even strength, I decided to compare Martin only with those who have played at least 20 games and had a Time On Ice per 60 of 15. For special teams, I kept the same minimum game requirement, but reduced the TOI/60 minimum to 1. Admittedly, I feel that even strength performance is far more important since a majority of a hockey game is going to be played at 5-on-5, a top defenseman must be able to perform well there to contribute. In any case, through this criteria, Martin has been compared with other defenseman who have played significant minutes for their team in either season.
Note: I'm focusing on regular seasons only because the sheer lack of games in the playoffs make it difficult for comparisons. Do I compare someone who's only played 5 to someone who's played over 20? What about those who didn't make the playoffs at all? In a 4-to-7 game series, someone can get hot or cold and throw it off. At least in 20 games, the effect of someone being "on fire" can be muted.
Besides, if he has to be replaced, then we'll have a much better idea of who would be suitable to take his spot - much better than just demanding a blueliner who scored 50 points once upon a time or is a big guy who supposedly knows how to shut people down. Here, the goal was to find evidence of who has an impact on the ice from the back.
In Part 1, I performed this analysis for the 2008-09 season, as Martin was stacked up against 123 defensemen. In Part 2 (linked by Puck Daddy - thanks, Greg), the analysis turned to the 2009-10 season, where Martin was ranked among 132 defensemen. In both Parts 1 and 2, Martin stood up very well in most statistical categories. Part 3 took a look at his on-ice impact on special teams from both seasons. There, Martin didn't shine as much but he wasn't a drain on his team for the most part.
Upon request from ILWT user Zelepukin, I compared Martin's numbers generated and compiled for those three posts to those on his own team utilizing the same criteria. Again, Martin was shown to the best defenseman overall in both 2008-09 and 2009-10. However, the comments there still have some users thinking that letting Martin walk is the best idea. If you think that way, fine, but all I ask is that you take a close look at this post. This is where I will compare Martin to his fellow pending unrestricted free agent defensemen for the summer of 2010. Again, I'm using the same criteria and numbers from the first three posts - but filtered out only for UFAs by cross-referencing names with the CapGeek 2010 UFA Finder.
Please continue on after the jump to at least learn why I have found Paul Martin to be the most effective defenseman available on the UFA market for this summer. It is advised that you set this post to "Wide" before moving on to see the whole chart. For the sake of simplicity and giant charts, I'll only be embedding the important ones.
NOTE: Any ranking highlighted in orange among the UFA defensemen means that player finished in the top 30 from the total population (UFAs and non-UFAs) in that stat. Thanks to ILWT user Matthew Gigawatts Maneri for the inspiration.
2008-09 Season
Power Play (5-on-4)
# of Defensemen Total who Met Game/Time Criteria: 127
# of 2010 UFA Defensemen who Met Game/Time Criteria: 26
Link to SF/60, GF/60 and On-Ice Impact Numbers among UFA Defensemen
Link to SF/60, GF/60 and On-Ice Impact Rankings among all 127
The rankings among the 26 pending UFA defensemen are as follows:
Back in 2008-09, your top power play contributors by these stats were Mike Van Ryn, Nicklas Lidstrom, Scott Niedermayer, Rob Blake and Paul Martin. I'd also include Sergei Gonchar if only for being just outside the top 30 in two categories plus putting in over 5 TOI/60 on the man advantage. Martin looks good here among his peers.
The only ones who really stand out in a bad way, in terms of their 5-on-4 contributions in 08-09, were Darryl Sydor, Randy Jones, and Christoph Schubert.
Penalty Kill (4-on-5)
# of Defensemen Total who Met Game/Time Criteria: 187
# of 2010 UFA Defensemen who Met Game/Time Criteria: 50
Link to SA/60, GA/60 and On-Ice Impact Numbers among UFA Defensemen
Link to SA/60, GA/60 and On-Ice Impact Rankings among all 187
The rankings among the 50 pending UFA defensemen are as follows:
The only player who was somewhat consistently ranked high was Ruslan Salei, who finished in the top 30 in three stats (GA/60 was his shortcoming), and Francis Bouillon, who finished in the top 30 in only two stats but wasn't all that far off from the other two. Most of this list appears that a defenseman either ranked well compared to his UFA peers in shots against but not goals against, or vice versa.
As far as UFA defensemen that shouldn't been seen as PK superheroes, Garnet Exelby stood out as ranking low across the board among his UFA peers. Derek Morris, Lukas Krajicek, and Adam Foote were also found to be poor contributors on the penalty kill relative to other UFA defensemen.
Martin didn't come close to the top 30 out of 187 in either stat, but he did finish above average among his fellow UFAs in all stats except for on-ice impact for shots against (SA/60 Differential)
Even Strength
# of Defensemen Total who Met Game/Time Criteria: 123
# of 2010 UFA Defensemen who Met Game/Time Criteria: 18
Link to Even Strength On-Ice and On-Ice Impact Numbers among UFA Defensemen
Link to Even Strength On-Ice and On-Ice Impact Rankings among all 123
The rankings among the 18 pending UFA defensemen are as follows:
Click here for the full-sized 2008-09 UFA ranking chart
Let's take a step back here. Many more pending UFAs were found on special teams than on even strength. That definitely suggests to me that most of the market is full of lower end defensemen who may play a particular role moreso than anything else. If we're going to consider how Paul Martin compares to his peers or even think of a replacement for him (or even Mike Mottau), then we can only consider defensemen who have played regularly. That the total population dropped so much is striking.
Anyway, by using the metric of top 30 rankings, I organized the chart based on who was in that select group the most. I think a top defenseman should be in the best 25% in his position based on the game and time criteria. Here's what stands out the most from this chart:
1) Only one defenseman had a SF/60 differential that ranked in the top 30 among the 123 group: Paul Martin.
2) There are quite a few defensemen who didn't rank in the top 30 at all. This isn't to say that they are awful, just that they aren't elite. Among them, Toni Lydman and Dan Hamhuis stood out the most in my eyes. Hamhuis was consistent across the board but not quite so well: no lower than 13th but no higher than 11th. Lydman was usually no higher than 8th and only two stats below 10th, but there were some exceptions.
3) Mike Mottau may have faced the weakest competition (check the QUALCOMPs) on this list, but you can't say he didn't take full advantage with 5 top 30 rankings out of 9.
4) Proof of a shutdown defenseman: Anton Volchenkov led the UFA group in terms of SA/60 and on-ice impact of SA/60 (SA/60 Diff). Very good from him. He was good in GA/60 as well as a nice adjusted Corsi/60; but the offensive rankings at even strength were very poor. Well, he was a shutdown defenseman in 2008-09.
5) Nicklas Lidstrom and Paul Martin lead the 2010 UFA class who made the 2008-09 list with six top 30 rankings out of a possible nine. Among those stats, Lidstrom's most impressive in my eyes was his adjusted Corsi/60, which was a ridiculously high 17.51. Martin's most impressive stat in my view was his SF/60; while not great among the 132 population, his 30.2 was the highest among all UFAs - and looks even better next to his SA/60 and GA/60 numbers.
A full season of Paul Martin playing regularly put him ahead of 16 other 2010-pending UFA defensemen back in 2008-09 at even strength. He never finished below 9th in any stat from that season, which shows how well he stacks up against his soon-to-be fellow free agents. I don't know about you, but I find that to be huge in terms of emphasizing how great Martin was and can be with a full season. Only Lidstrom matched him in terms of ranking so highly, and he's one of the greatest defensemen of all time. That is excellent company to keep.
I'm sure some of you're thinking, "Great. But as you keep saying, these are defensemen who are pending UFAs for this summer. You know as well as I do that GMs and their agents are going to focus on their most recent season more so than 2008-09." A very good and valid point. Let's move on to 2009-10, but do keep in mind Martin's excellent pedigree from 2008-09.
Also keep in mind that those who met the criteria in 2008-09 may not have made it in 2009-10, and vice versa.
2009-10 Season
Power Play (5-on-4)
# of Defensemen Total who Met Game/Time Criteria: 118
# of 2010 UFA Defensemen who Met Game/Time Criteria: 25
Link to SF/60, GF/60 and On-Ice Impact Numbers among UFA Defensemen
Link to SF/60, GF/60 and On-Ice Impact Rankings among all 118
The rankings among the 25 pending UFA defensemen are as follows:
Scott Niedermayer and Sergei Gonchar, one season later, remained as two of the best defensemen in the game on the power play. Nicklas Lidstrom will be considered among them though I'm totally confused as to how his SF/60 differential was so low. Odd. In terms of new names who stick out, Kurtis Foster was able to actually play some hockey after some serious injuries and helped out quite a bit on Tampa Bay's power play. Marc-Andre Bergeron didn't contribute so much back in 08-09, but his numbers were significantly improved in this past season in Montreal.
Unless there's something about them that I don't know, it doesn't seem that based on their 2009-10 power play contributions on the ice that Mark Eaton, Brian Pothier, Jordan Leopold, and Kim Johnsson should be seen as defensemen who can seriously boost a power play
Paul Martin fared well in terms of contributing to SF/60 and SF/60 differential; but his GF/60 and GF/60 differential were much lower from how high it was back in 08-09. Granted, Martin played in October, where the man advantage wasn't hot yet; but it was good overall in most of March and April. I'm afraid I don't have an actual explanation to account for this. Still, the results are what they are: they show that he didn't contribute all that much to goals on the man advantage, especially relative to other UFA defensemen on the market this summer.
Penalty Kill (4-on-5)
# of Defensemen Total who Met Game/Time Criteria: 175
# of 2010 UFA Defensemen who Met Game/Time Criteria: 43
Link to SA/60, GA/60 and On-Ice Impact Numbers among UFA Defensemen
Link to SA/60, GA/60 and On-Ice Impact Rankings among all 175
The rankings among the 43 pending UFA defensemen are as follows:
At last, Andreas Lilja supporters have something to exalt: he was great in limited penalty killing action! May Lilja get more PK time!
OK, seriously, there are a number of defensemen here who ranked very well among UFAs: Toni Lydman, Derek Morris (much improved over 08-09), and Mathieu Roy. While they may not have ranked in the top 30 in more than just one category (or at all), Anton Volchenkov, Jay Leach (in limited action), Niclas Wallin, Willie Mitchell, and Shaone Morrisson all did quite well. Also, let me point out that Garnet Exelby improved in his contributions relative to his fellow free agents in 2009-10; good job for Exelby.
Paul Martin did quite well in terms of SA/60 and his on-ice impact on SA/60. No problems there on the penalty kill. But the GA/60 - so bad. Just awful. Any GM looking to sign him should pause a little bit and perhaps even explore as to why that was poor. The low rankings there are almost in spite of the shots against rate dropping by just under 4 shots per 60 when he stepped on the ice.
However, the most important section should make that only a pause.
Even Strength
# of Defensemen Total who Met Game/Time Criteria: 132
# of 2010 UFA Defensemen who Met Game/Time Criteria: 24
Link to Even Strength On-Ice and On-Ice Impact Numbers among UFA Defensemen
Link to Even Strength On-Ice and On-Ice Impact Rankings among all 132
The rankings among the 24 pending UFA defensemen are as follows:
Click here for the full 2009-10 UFA Ranking chart
So much can be discussed from here.
Whereas in 08-09, Volchenkov was among the best in reducing SA/60; but he doesn't even stand out in 2009-10, he's among the worst in SA/60 differential - as in the SA/60 increased when he came on the ice. Very strange for a "shutdown" defenseman, no? At least his offensive contributions improved from that season. I'm sure anyone looking to sign him will hope he can defend like he did two seasons ago while providing the offense and Corsi from this past season.
Mike Mottau faced much tougher competition in this past season than he did in 08-09, and as such, he didn't rank in the top 30 in so many stats. Not terribly bad across the board, honestly.
Some of the more improved names on this list in comparison with 08-09 include Derek Morris, Joe Corvo, Dennis Seidenberg, and Sergei Gonchar (most notably in SA/60). The most improved players were Toni Lydman and Dan Hamhuis. Between the two, I'd prefer Hamhuis for his superior impact on shots against (Lydman was bad in that stat) and adjusted Corsi/60. I think he'll command
The best "debut" to the even strength list was Adrian Aucoin as GF/60 was the only type of stat where he didn't rank highly among other UFA defensemen. Excellent work by Aucoin in 2009-10. Rob Blake got onto this list too, but his rankings were feast or famine for lack of a better term.
But the best remain the same from 2008-09: Lidstrom and Martin. I'd say Lidstrom was better as he was more consistent across all stats in terms of ranking, and Martin had poor SF/60 numbers. Still, Martin should be seen from this as fantastic as he yielded the best SA/60 and SA/60 on-ice impact in the entire league among the group of 132, much less. Seriously, the shots against rate fell by 7.3 shots per 60 when he stepped on the ice, down to 18.9. Forget Hamhuis and Volchenkov, that is shut-down defending - I defy you to tell me otherwise.
I rest my case. (For now.)
Before You Ask - Criticisms
How can you say that Martin's the most effective defenseman available on the market, when Lidstrom ranked just as highly as Martin and was vastly superior in some stats?
Age. Per CapGeek, Lidstrom is 40 and Martin is 29. Given his storied career and his fantastic talent, he has absolutely nothing left to prove in hockey. Per Winging It in Motown, he's seriously considering retirement. So I cna't say he's really "available" at this juncture. Even if he chooses to keep playing, why in the world would Lidstrom go into the open market now? Would teams want to splash the cash for a 40-year old defenseman? I mean, I love Lidstrom's game but I'd doubt it out of fear that he can't continue his excellent play. (I think he would be able to if he goes for another season, but it's a fear all the same.)
Martin is in the prime of his career and put up the numbers he did both before and after his first serious injury of his career. There's no reason to believe he won't be sought after by multiple teams if he decides to test the waters. The above as well as all of the other Paul Martin posts
Is this really enough games to evaluate Paul Martin upon?
I focused on Martin's most recent work as that's likely how he'll be judged by other teams determining whether to consider adding him to their roster. In those two seasons, Martin played for two different coaches; had multiple defensive partners in Johnny Oduya, Martin Skoula, and Bryce Salvador; and still managed to perform very well among his own teammates and in comparison to other UFA defensemen.
In retrospect, I could look into 2007-08 from Behind the Net. Short of Martin looking miserable, I think all it would do would either add some doubt that arguable his 08-09 and (to a point) his 09-10 season answer; or it would confirm the effectiveness of Martin as a defenseman. This isn't to say it's not a valid point; I may do that anyway, just not right now.
What about GVT or other ways of measuring defensemen's performance?
I welcome all other alternative looks. I didn't use GVT as it's a results-based stat where players who only played the part of a season are hurt by the calculation. But I'd be interested in other takes. Feel free to make a FanPost or point me to someone else's analysis of Martin, UFA defensemen in 2010, or defensemen in general. I'd be happy to learn more.
Conclusion
In short:
Compared to his teammates, he has been the best Devils defenseman overall in the last two seasons. A player who has contributed plenty to most of his teammate's Corsi% in this past season. Compared to his peers, he has stacked up very well in both 2008-09 and 2009-10.
The only downfall are his special team numbers. But his even strength performances cannot be overshadowed by them - again, a majority of the game's played at 5-on-5 and Martin has proven from 2008 through 2010 that he's got the goods. Now, it has been shown that he's relatively the best among pending UFA defensemen. Only Lidstrom has matched him for the number of stats where he'd rank highly among other defensemen in the defined time and game criteria. And Lidstrom may not even be available at all.
To me, it's clear: Paul Martin is the most effective defenseman available on the market this summer, and definitely among the league's best. I don't see how it can be honestly argued otherwise given his on-ice impact across these past two seasons.
What did you think of all of this work, as well as the conclusions? Please let me know in the comments.
0 recs |
21 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
One additional post script
Please read the post before commenting. That’s all I ask. Criticize as much as you’d like, but read the post and understand where I’m coming from first.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
paul martin
and i am going to choose my words very carefully also…IMHO paul martin is more valuable to the devils than ilya kovalchuk…particularly since the difference in the money that each will likely get as salary for the upcoming season could be used by the devils for acquiring a second line center whether it be by free agency or trade…and while the second line center most likely will not be nearly as talented or sought after as kovalchuk IMHO he fillls a greater need that the devils have, a need that existed already at this same time one year ago and was never filled…comments, please?
by don in central jersey on May 14, 2010 9:04 AM EDT reply actions
I’d tend to agree.
I’m still unsure of where I stand on how much the team should pay for Martin, but I would like them to retain him if it’s cost effective. I still don’t think he’s a true number 1, though, and think he and the team would benefit greatly from acquiring someone to complement his talents and help cover his weaknesses.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
Still Backing #17
John, you make a very compelling argument for keeping Martin, and for him being the top priority. But I’ll continue to beat the drum for retaining the services of Ilya Kovalchuk being the Devils’ top priority anyhow. Here’s why:
- The Devils have a clear problem with scoring in general and their power play.
Paul Martin is a wonderfully talented player, but his presence hasn’t cured either problem. One thing that Kovalchuk does very well is put the puck in the net, and Ilya was a point-a-game producer while with the team, even if he didn’t score as many goals as we’d like. If Kovalchuk walks, where are we going to come up with the offense to replace that? If you tell me Parise and Zajac, there’s only so much more they can offer. Elias and Rolston and Langenbrunner aren’t getting any younger. Zubrus has never put up big numbers with the team. The kids are unproven — it is anyone’s guess if you’ll get Bergfors-type numbers (20+ goals) or Zharkov-type numbers (0 goals) from any of them.
- Paul Martin will carry a hefty price tag.
Martin is clearly the most desirable UFA defenseman on the market, and all the numbers and metrics back that up. That means someone will pony up a lot of money for him come July 1, and his agent undoubtedly knows that. If he gets to the open market, recent history seems to indicate he’ll get a minimum of $6 million/year, and I don’t know if he warrants that big a raise on the current roster. He might agree to a discount to stay, but is he really worth (say) $5 million/year for what he provides?
- The Devils have a history of producing quality defense from within.
Sure, it might be the system. Then again, it might be the talent that Lou Lamorello and David Conte unearth, the patience they show with players, and the team bringing them along at a measured pace to let them grow into the system. Go back to 2000, when Brian Rafalski and Colin White came onto the scene. Both had significant contributions to the 2000 and 2003 Cups…. say what you will about White now, but he was (and still is, IMO) an effective defenseman. Paul Martin came up in 2004 and stepped into a major role on the blue line after Stevens retired and Niedermeyer walked. Andy Greene has gone from an undrafted free agent signing to a Top 4 defender. There’s been chatter about the promise of Corrente and Eckford, among others. Either way, I have faith that the Devils can find an internal solution if Martin walks and they shouldn’t be too much worse off for it.
- It is insanity to keep doing the same thing and expect different results.
In this case, I’m referring to the general make-up of the team. The Devils fell apart in the second round in 2007. They got shown the door early in 2008, 2009, and 2010. Yet, most of the argument here seems to be for keeping the guy we’ve had for six season and dumping the guy who was here a little more than six weeks. The argument seems to be for keeping the team largely intact and tweaking around the edges: a second-line center, another D-man, role players for the bottom lines, a backup goalie and some rookies. The argument seems to run against a major change — a philosophy shift, a big piece from outside the organization (which I think Kovalchuk qualifies under), perhaps one of Lou’s bigger off-season trades such as the Friesen-for-Sykora swap in 2002. If the Devils come back in September with pretty much the same roster we’ve gone to war with the past few years, why should we expect anything different next season? Why should we expect something other than a great regular season and a playoff disappointment if that’s what this bunch has provided a few times?
- I won’t overpay for loyalty and fond memories.
It can be viewed as sacrilege in many places to advocate throwing the long-time home team player out the door to keep the Johnny-come-lately. I think Paul Martin is an excellent defenseman and I’d take him on my team any day. But I’m not interested in giving him more money than he’s worth in his role just because he’s been a Devil since before the lockout. Think about the money he’s liable to get this summer in what might be the one really big contract he gets in his career. I’ve floated a number of $6 million per season above…. which would put him into the top ten in per-season salary in the league. Sure, a lot of the guys in that group are very overpaid (Brian Campbell, Wade Redden, Ed Jovanovski, to name three)…. but does anyone here honestly believe he’s among the top ten D-men in the league? What else does he bring to the table besides solid two-way play? He doesn’t bang the body, he doesn’t provide leadership that I can see, and he isn’t an elite offensive talent. He’s just a nice all-around player but doesn’t rise above 90% of the league in any particular category.
Personally, I don’t see him as a true #1 defenseman (aren’t many of those in the league, frankly), but you’ll quite possibly end up paying him like one to keep him.
…
I know I’m in the minority, but I’d sooner keep Ilya Kovalchuk than Paul Martin, if I can only choose one. I know Kovalchuk is a world-class talent and can justify paying him one of the top salaries in the game for his position. I know Kovalchuk wants badly to win and plays like it, even if he “doesn’t fit in with the team”. (Perhaps the team should change a little bit and meet him part of the way there) I can’t say the same for Paul Martin.
by acasser on May 14, 2010 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I sceond everything you wrote.
I also think you are not in the Minority, i think most fans if given a choice would rather keep Kovalchuk over Martin.
This is a good response and I apologize for not getting to it until later. I may make it a separate post if it’s not a problem.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on May 17, 2010 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Paul Martin is a very good and the most desireable UFA defensemen this summer. I do not believe that a cash strap Organization like the Devils will over pay for Martin services next year regard less of all of the above stats. The cap space available during the summer will be used to address or fill the several holes on this team .
Great Job John
I wonder how you find the time it must take to put into one post like this, much less, how many have you done lately, 10? Anyway, while I too would love to keep Kovy, it’s a business and the Devils would be too weak elsewhere if they spent the money it would take to keep both Martin and Kovalchuk, and regardless of the recent performance, defense wins playoff games. And while Brodeur is still at or near the top of his game, the Devils need to keep the best defense possible in front of him.
Go Jets
Go Devils
All of these analyses have provided solid evidence of Martin’s effectiveness. I think his free agency is the biggest issue facing the Devils this offseason. With Kovalchuk if the Devils make an offer we know it will be big and long term and that for better or worse his shear talent will make whatever price Lou decides on justifiable (it won’t be anywhere near $10 million). With Martin however the Devils have a conundrum. He’s the best defenseman on the market and will command upwards of $5 million over a number of years. Yet some could argue that he isn’t worth that kind of money. With the Devils defense already fairly thin and a lack of any better option in free agency they are almost forced to do what it takes to retain him…
Sorry
I just don’t draw the same conclusion from the stats. The stats are just numbers. You cannot look at the team and system set in place. If you play in a defensive system, it will pad your defensive numbers. Paul Martin is a GOOD defenseman that benefits from the strong forward support and system set in place. If you look at him with other members of NJ, they all rank well, but are they? No. Mike Mottau looks alright in the charts below, but you think he worth as much as some of the other names on the list? Doubtful. Martin is an above average defender on an average defense, but a great defensive team. NJ is ranked #1 in goals against, yet the majority of people view it as an average defense core.
Look at the ranking at some of the competitors, hell just look at their style of play. Heck just look at where Skoula was ranked on the last chart and who was ahead, yet he was only worthy of a 5th round pick? With those numbers you think he should be a #2-3 atleast.
I would rather keep the foundation intact, let Martin, Skoula and Mottau go….Upgrade the defense with people who can hit and provide some offensive support. Lets face it, the team had a wasted season, we don’t need to “blow it up” just add more depth…Skoula and Mottau are 3rd liners at best. Lets get some real talent, but don’t over pay with those big names, volchenkov…and Hamhuis may demands a lot of $$…Not worth it for defense only players.
The excess money can be used to keep Players like Kovy or add a true natural center like Lombardi.
Here’s a thought…..did the team struggle without him? or dramatically improve with him? Nope, as a team the either thrived (pre-christmas) or faltered (post christmas)…He did not impact the team as dramitcally as one might expect from the numbers above…
Not so fast.
The stats are just numbers.
Numbers that show how the team’s performance changes in terms of shots against/60, goals against/60, shots for/60, and goals for/60 – important numbers as those are areas the team can have some control over – when a player steps on the ice.
If you look at him with other members of NJ, they all rank well, but are they? No. Mike Mottau looks alright in the charts below, but you think he worth as much as some of the other names on the list? Doubtful. Martin is an above average defender on an average defense, but a great defensive team. NJ is ranked #1 in goals against, yet the majority of people view it as an average defense core.
Please look at the 5-on-5 SA/60 charts in this post. Notice that while where the other Devils defenseman have been ranked among similar defensemen in those season vary, Martin still leads them and finished among the top 20 in SA/60 in 08-09 as well as first in 09-10.
Look at the ranking at some of the competitors, hell just look at their style of play. Heck just look at where Skoula was ranked on the last chart and who was ahead, yet he was only worthy of a 5th round pick? With those numbers you think he should be a #2-3 atleast.
Look at the charts I linked to – not embedded – in the post. Rather, click here. Skoula had the lowest QUALCOMP among all defensemen in that list. He faced the weakest competition over the whole season. Most of that may have been from his time in Pittsburgh, but I wouldn’t call him a shut-down defenseman because of the relatively weak competition.
I would rather keep the foundation intact, let Martin, Skoula and Mottau go….Upgrade the defense with people who can hit and provide some offensive support. Lets face it, the team had a wasted season, we don’t need to "blow it up" just add more depth…Skoula and Mottau are 3rd liners at best. Lets get some real talent, but don’t over pay with those big names, volchenkov…and Hamhuis may demands a lot of $$…Not worth it for defense only players.
I’m baffled that the a response to stats showing how good Martin is that the Devils need someone who can hit. Baffled.
I agree the defense needs to be tweaked but there isn’t anyone on the market who can legitimately replace Martin this summer. Hamhuis may be able to fill in defensively, but he’s not going to have the offensive contributions as well. Andy Greene filled up his minutes, Mottau filled up plenty of minutes, but neither of the two has contributed as much as Martin when Martin takes to the ice.
Here’s a thought…..did the team struggle without him? or dramatically improve with him? Nope, as a team the either thrived (pre-christmas) or faltered (post christmas)…He did not impact the team as dramitcally as one might expect from the numbers above…
I can’t accept this logic. The 2008-09 Devils had a better record with Scott Clemmensen in net (25-13-1, 51 Pts., .641 Win%) than Martin Brodeur (19-9-3, 41 Pts., .633 Win%); is this to mean that Brodeur had no impact on the Devils that season and therefore he’s not as good as we may think? That’s silly.
A lot of Martin’s effectiveness doesn’t show up on the boxscore, that doesn’t mean it’s not so far-fetched a defenseman may be very good at both ends of the rink without necessarily putting up a lot of points. Likewise, it’s not so far-fetched a defenseman who puts up a lot of points (e.g. Mike Green), may not have had an on-ice impact on his team as much as we may think.
If you don’t think Martin should be re-signed, fine. But that wasn’t my main argument (though it drove me to go into this much depth). My main point is that Martin is the very best defenseman on the market this summer.
I personally conclude from that is that it makes re-signing Martin that much more vital if only because there isn’t someone out there who can really replace him without the defense taking a hit. Mottau was better than some may give him credit for, but he can be replaced. Not Martin, in my view.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on May 14, 2010 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Not So Fast Right Back.
“Numbers that show how the team’s performance changes in terms of shots against/60, goals against/60, shots for/60, and goals for/60 – important numbers as those are areas the team can have some control over – when a player steps on the ice.”
I never said Paul Martin was not the best D-Man in NJ – I Agree
I believe Paul Martin benefits from the system that NJ plays, increasing his defensive numbers.
“Please look at the 5-on-5 SA/60 charts in this post. Notice that while where the other Devils defensemen have been ranked among similar defensemen in those season vary, Martin still leads them and finished among the top 20 in SA/60 in 08-09 as well as first in 09-10.”
I get that he is in the top twenty…Like I said, the best defender in an average defense core….Made to look great by the style of the team. You can’t compare a team’s defenders that plays a “Run N Gun” type offense with a defense first system that NJ employs. You could, but that only provides a small insight. You would need to pull the list of the free agents, compare them with their teammates the see how the other compare in their own system.
“I’m baffled that the a response to stats showing how good Martin is that the Devils need someone who can hit. Baffled.
I agree the defense needs to be tweaked but there isn’t anyone on the market who can legitimately replace Martin this summer. Hamhuis may be able to fill in defensively, but he’s not going to have the offensive contributions as well. Andy Greene filled up his minutes, Mottau filled up plenty of minutes, but neither of the two has contributed as much as Martin when Martin takes to the ice."
Again, I am not looking for a Complete replacement. Rather to let him go and upgrade the entire core as a unit. I think Martin is relatively equal to certain defenders out there, I would consider him a low #1 defenseman, but if you consider how the defense did as a unit when if you break the defense apart piece by piece are just average. To say NJ does not need a big body is crazy. Philly walked all over Brodeur in the playoffs, Pronger screened him, Giroux screened him, and the list goes on. When Pronger was on Boucher was not getting screened nearly as much. I fail to see your arguement there.
“I can’t accept this logic. The 2008-09 Devils had a better record with Scott Clemmensen in net (25-13-1, 51 Pts., .641 Win%) than Martin Brodeur (19-9-3, 41 Pts., .633 Win%); is this to mean that Brodeur had no impact on the Devils that season and therefore he’s not as good as we may think? That’s silly.”
How do you explain the average numbers Clemmensen put up outside the NJ system and the great numbers while in the NJ system, Clemmensen was always a bad rebound waiting to happen. To say the system NJ has does not benefit Brodeur is crazy, especially when Brodeur himself has admitted this. Brodeur is still the best goalie in the league, but his stats may not be as high when outside of the Devils system.
“A lot of Martin’s effectiveness doesn’t show up on the boxscore, that doesn’t mean it’s not so far-fetched a defenseman may be very good at both ends of the rink without necessarily putting up a lot of points. Likewise, it’s not so far-fetched a defenseman who puts up a lot of points (e.g. Mike Green), may not have had an on-ice impact on his team as much as we may think.”
So we agree on that topic, so then why can’t you see the opposite and that a team can have an impact on the stats? Just based on numbers and numbers alone, when comparing a team that was statically the best defensive team in the league against a team with best offense (WSH).
NJ Ranked # 1 defense and # 19 in offense
WSH #1 in offense and #15 in defense. Their defense core is regarded as below average, the only reason they are so high is because of the puck possession that WSH had.
I think a good example is CHI….They have a defense that is regarded as one of the better in the league. They rank number #4 in offense and a tie for #5 in defense. I think this representative of what a good defense is..
Your number analysis is way off if you consider the Martin the best defender out there, you need to really look at the total picture.
Its great you have the stats you do, but to me its pretty obvious that a defenders offensive numbers will benefit in an offensive system and his defensive numbers will suffer. You can use the same scenario for Martin. His defensive numbers were inflated and offensive numbers stifled.
In order to run an analysis, I think you have to also pull the same number of the individuals on the free agent market compared to their own team. Did they help the team? What line were they facing? Than fine out where that team ranks offensively vs defensively, or determine their “system”.
I would much rather have a big strong defender to replace Martin, someone who can clear the net and play a defense first role primarily. Yes you can use the Hamhuis and Volchenkov arguement, but I think they will command to much money for that role. If Hamhuis will take $4 mill than sign him. Then try for a mobile defenseman with an offensive flair, like Seidenberg, or even take a chance on Colaiacovo. Allocate about 6.5 million. If they can Martin and a big body for that amount, then great.
I don’t hate Martin, I like Martin, but I think you cannot ignore the overall weak defense core. To spend $5+ on someone who does not have as huge an impact as you may think is a bit crazy. Especially given some of the individuals available.
I personally conclude from that is that it makes re-signing Martin that much more vital if only because there isn’t someone out there who can really replace him without the defense taking a hit. Mottau was better than some may give him credit for, but he can be replaced. Not Martin, in my view."
I conclude, let Martin walk if he wants $5 or more, NJ does not need another large contract. Use the available funds to upgrade the unit.
Again my argument is not that Martin is bad, its that his numbers are inflated by the system NJ plays. The defense needs more than just Martin, I don’t see how we can upgrade the team slightly by signing Martin. We give him $5 Mill than how can we get a center? Nieds and McAmmond are not legit #2 centers. Who will set up our second line? If we kept Gionta and got a center would we have gotten them same results as MTL?
Think about Players who leave systems and do well? Wolski, Mueller, Rupp (double his NJ #’s) just to name a few.
Think about those who left and disappointed (Drury, Briere, Redden)
The problem is, without stats, you’re basing everything you are saying on Opinion. That’s what gets other analysts in trouble. Everyone has an opinion. Your “feelings” on how Martin plays doesn’t match my feelings on how Martin plays etc. Same with Brodeur. I think everyone who thinks that Brodeur is a product of the system is smoking something. He’s IS the reason they are playing this system, and I have full confidence that if Marty had started somewhere else with a different system, he would still have been an Elite goalie. Then again, that’s MY opinion. See everyone has one.
The only thing you can base facts on, is more facts. The numbers say that Martin is better than the other D-men available. None of your feelings will matter. You think Hamhuis and Volchenkov can play in our system? You said yourself that you can’t judge the play of other D-men outside of the system they play. So how do you know they won’t be worse coming into our system?
Again, the grass always looks greener on the other side. You can’t compare apples to oranges. Unless we actually sign one of those D-men to compare in our system, we won’t know for sure. But are you willing to risk losing someone like Martin for a gamble? I agree that we maybe should let Mottau walk, but Martin is still worth at least 5 mil in my book. I don’t agree with you that Martin’s numbers are inflated by NJ. I think just the opposite, I think his offensive numbers have been hampered by NJ’s system and lack of a quality partner.
Not opinion, but intangibles. Things you can’t touch. If you read my post, I said to pull up the comparison on their teams and see what type of improvement. I do agree that the Martin’s Offense has been hampered, but his defense has been inflated to what you are almost saying are god like. Anything is opinion based, Lou doesn’t just sign based on numbers and if he did he wouldn’t be successful. Martin is not a 5 Mill player, especially with the other needs that are out there. I did not say Hamhuis or Vol was the answer, I don’t even like Volchenkov, will ask for 6 mill and is injured 10-15 games a season. I said if they put up solid number in their system, a more open system than NJ, you can assume they would be an upgrade here, since they upgrade their own defense.
Martin
White
Salvador
Greene
Mottau
Skoula
Is that that defense you would like to see again, given how they were man handled vs Philly? How can you expect to get Martin a good partner when you are already shelling out $5 mill for him? Lou is not gonna spend $9 on two D-Men. So while I see what your trying to say, I disagree. The team already gambled without Martin for 50 games this season, they held their own. Do you not think Seidenberg / Hamuis are an upgrade of Fraser/ Corrente / Salmela?
If you want, Ill play your game….who is Martin’s ideal defensive partner? How much would he fetch? How would you upgrade are center position too? Who would clear the front of the net against the like of Pronger and Avery and other big bodies? We answered the question about who would move the puck out on the rush, Martin….but answer those questions and then we will see. Keep in mind, I think 5 Million for Martin is low….considering Volchenkov wants between $6-7 Mill….Michalek could fetch 4-4.5 Mill….Hamhuis 4-4.5
I get that he is in the top twenty…Like I said, the best defender in an average defense core….Made to look great by the style of the team. You can’t compare a team’s defenders that plays a "Run N Gun" type offense with a defense first system that NJ employs. You could, but that only provides a small insight. You would need to pull the list of the free agents, compare them with their teammates the see how the other compare in their own system.
I’m not sure why I have to consider, say, Dan Hamhuis’ teammates to determine whether or not Hamhuis makes a positive impact for his team when he steps on the ice.
Stats like QUALCOMP and QUALTEAM can take into account the quality of competition and teammates each defenseman individually faces. I’ve included those numbers in nearly every one of these charts for the purpose of context. This way you can easily see that Skoula’s numbers look great but he did against weak competition.
So we agree on that topic, so then why can’t you see the opposite and that a team can have an impact on the stats?
At what point did I say that a team didn’t have an impact? My point is quite simple: When Martin steps on the ice when he plays, certain stats improve and others don’t. More often than not, not only do they improve, but at a rate as high as some of the best in the league and among the best among available UFAs. He did this across multiple years and two different coaches. Over 100 games, you’d have to agree that it has to be the result of more than just Martin being on a good defensive team. If anything, such high rankings would suggest that Martin is a big reason why the Devils are such a good defensive team.
One more thing:
So we agree on that topic, so then why can’t you see the opposite and that a team can have an impact on the stats? Just based on numbers and numbers alone, when comparing a team that was statically the best defensive team in the league against a team with best offense (WSH).
NJ Ranked # 1 defense and # 19 in offense
WSH #1 in offense and #15 in defense.
I don’t hate Martin, I like Martin, but I think you cannot ignore the overall weak defense core.
So which is it? The Devils have a weak defense core? If so, how in the world did they finish the best? (And in what way are they ranked so highly? GA/game? GF/game?)
The defense needs more than just Martin, I don’t see how we can upgrade the team slightly by signing Martin. We give him $5 Mill than how can we get a center? Nieds and McAmmond are not legit #2 centers. Who will set up our second line? If we kept Gionta and got a center would we have gotten them same results as MTL?
I don’t know about “we” unless you somehow work for the Devils, and I’m hoping you don’t.
The Devils can upgrade the defense by not signing Mottau and signing a better replacement who will provide some more offense.
The Devils can still sign two centers and a back up goalie with $7-9 mil. of cap space. No, they won’t be able to seriously get Marleau or Plekanec, but they don’t need to do that. Just get a secondary center to play behind Zajac and a checking center. The fourth line C can be a rookie or a minor player. The second line playmaking duties can be handled by Elias if need be.
As far Montreal’s results, they’ve got where they are by essentially getting dominated every game and praying that Jaroslav Halak can stop nearly everything and a shooting percentage so high it’s unsustainable. Check out how the scoring chances broke down in the second round series from Behind the Net’s blog. It wasn’t Gionta and a center that got Montreal where they are, a lot of breaks went their way (slumping opposition, Halak playing out of his mind at least 8 out of 15 times). It’s not a good gameplan to follow.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on May 17, 2010 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not sure why I have to consider, say, Dan Hamhuis’ teammates to determine whether or not Hamhuis makes a positive impact for his team when he steps on the ice.
Stats like QUALCOMP and QUALTEAM can take into account the quality of competition and teammates each defenseman individually faces. I’ve included those numbers in nearly every one of these charts for the purpose of context. This way you can easily see that Skoula’s numbers look great but he did against weak competition.
Because you need to see the impact the person has on his own team. Does the team improve when he steps on the ice…Just how good a team is doesn’t always matter….How a player impacts a good team and how he impacts a bad team matters.
At what point did I say that a team didn’t have an impact? My point is quite simple: When Martin steps on the ice when he plays, certain stats improve and others don’t. More often than not, not only do they improve, but at a rate as high as some of the best in the league and among the best among available UFAs. He did this across multiple years and two different coaches. Over 100 games, you’d have to agree that it has to be the result of more than just Martin being on a good defensive team. If anything, such high rankings would suggest that Martin is a big reason why the Devils are such a good defensive team.
Thats good at all….but how do you explain the consistent performance this year when he was not in the lineup. He does make the team better yes…but obviously not enough to win a championship. He is good at breaking up rushes and breakin out his zone, but not good at clearing the net or creating a sense of fear from the opposition.
So which is it? The Devils have a weak defense core? If so, how in the world did they finish the best? (And in what way are they ranked so highly? GA/game? GF/game?)
As I mentioned before and you pointed out, the team made the numbers not Martin. Martin was not even in 2/3 of the games. So how does the validate your point about Martin, I think you validated mine again. The Devils play a dynamic team game where defense is the primary focus. This is why they are near the top year in year out, with different defenders and coaches….Not because we have Paul Martin.
On my example with Gionta and MTL I was trying to show you that his numbers benefited with a good center….I could care less how MTL does as a team.
How much of an upgrade can you expect? a checking center maybe 1-2 mill….a bonafide #2 center…4-5 mill….Back up goalie .500…..so what does that leave us with now….1-2 mill for an upgrade on D, that quite honestly would still be the same D that got eliminated for the past few years. I still dont see how Martin’s signing is the key to the success of NJ….We still need a body to clear the net, a QB for the powerplay, and more mobility in the defensive zone. Even if do it the Martin way, how would an upgrade at center improve over Kovalchuk…If we have almost the same defense core and a downgrade over Kovalchuk on the offensive side, why would we expect anything different the past few years…..So again I ask you, how does leaving the team intact except for an upgrade over Mottau and downgrade over Kovalchuk make this a better hockey club….That is the question I really care about….If you can explain HOW…I can agree that Martin would be an important signing. As of right now I don’t see it.
I see a better option as Hamhuis and Coliacovo/Seidenberg giving NJ the puck movement and the body to clear the front…upgrading our back end. For about 4.5 + 2.5…about 7 Mill. Who would you get that would legitimately upgrade our D for about 1.5 Mill….Assuming Martin gets 5.5 or 2 Mill assuming he gets 5…Lets just not factor in the unknown of Eckford….everyone else is the same….
Atleast
The Devils did sign Tedenby and Josephson….Maybe a post Kovy move?
They also drafted both of them long before they ever knew Kovalchuk would be available in a trade, let alone getting him. Signing them is as much of a formality as anything — you’d have had to do so if you wanted them in Lowell next season.
Tedenby and Josefsen are also big question marks at this point. We have no idea what either one will contribute to the big club next year, if anything…. and if you put the pressure or replicating Kovalchuk’s talent and numbers on either one, you’re more likely to break them than anything else.
defensemen
a lot of people have said that the devils need some help both getting points and in moving the puck up ice from the defensemen maybe they ought to give some real thought to increasing salmela’s minutes, if they re-sign martin they would have martin, andy green and salmela would give then defensemen who can skate and carry the puck (and, in salmela’s case, shoot the puck) obviously salmela is a work in progress but he has some potential and has never been given an extended opportunity to show what he can do, at least not as a devil…maybe john can look at some of his NHL numbers and have some thoughts on his talent
by don in central jersey on May 14, 2010 2:52 PM EDT reply actions
I hope he stays. He can contribute offensively at times, but losing a defensive anchor wouldn’t be great for the team, even if the team can survive without him. We’ve lost enough good defensemen from our system to free agency, hopefully Martin isn’t one of them
Cheers, Complaints, homerism and bashing of mediocre pop musicians in 140 Characters
"DO NOT get stuck behind Kyle Wellwood in the buffet line. This isn't really etiquette, but it will prevent you from starving to death"- Down Goes Brown on Etiquette for Jason Spezza's wedding
by Kevin Sellathamby on May 14, 2010 7:23 PM EDT reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on In Lou We Trust
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Hilary Duff to attend Pittsburgh games; also, Comrie signs with Pens
- Kittens: The key ingredient to any intimidating KHL goalie mask
- Puck Daddy chats with Paul Bissonnette about his triumphant return to Twitter, plans for a bum tattoo
- In which former NHL coach Ken Hitchcock foils a shoplifter
- Montreal's Price talks new 2-year contract, expectations post-Halak
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
