What Makes a #1 Defenseman a #1 Defenseman?
by John Fischer on May 18, 2010 10:02 AM EDT
in What Do You Think?
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One of the larger questions I've grown to ponder over the last week when putting all of these posts together about Paul Martin (recap: here, here, here, here, here, ultimately concluding that he's the most effective defenseman available on the marker this summer and concluding that the Devils should re-sign him) was what makes a #1 defenseman a #1 defenseman? Prior, I had the notion that the ideal defenseman would be an impact player at both ends of the rink, able to put up a significant amount of points whilst providing solid defense. Someone who can command a game from the back and generally be in the right position all the time.
However, the more I think about it, the more I think that such a defenseman may be so exceptional and so rare that the meaning is obscured somewhat? Isn't a #1 defenseman someone who can lead a blueline, regardless of flaws? Given that the most important role for a defender is to actually, you know, defend, wouldn't such a definition of a #1 defenseman shut out all the top defensive defensemen in the league?
In any case, I'm interested in two questions:
- What criteria determines if a defenseman is a #1 defenseman?
- Is Paul Martin a #1 defenseman? If so, why? If not, why not?
I know on-ice impact isn't the be-all, end-all of measuring a defenseman's skill. There are other stats out there that help determine it, but I would think that a defenseman who plays against tough competition and generally ranks among the best at even strength play in terms of on-ice impact, especially, in terms of reducing shots against says plenty about a defenseman's effectiveness.
Incidentally, here's how Paul Martin ranked in on-ice impact (and adjusted Corsi/60) in 2008-09 and 2009-10 among all NHL defensemen who played 20 games and had a time on ice per 60 of at least 15. I wish I did that in Part 1 and Part 2 from last week, but here it is now for your table-reading enjoyment. Sorted by the number of ranks in the top 30 in each season, followed by quality of competition. Only Nicklas Lidstrom and Duncan Keith (italicized in both tables) factored better than Martin in both seasons. So I'm confident in saying that Martin has an on-ice impact like a #1 defenseman. What more does he need to do?
Let me know your answers to each in the comments. Remember, I'm most interested in criteria that determines who really is and is not a #1 defenseman as well as whether Paul Martin meets it or not.
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What makes a #1? I think a #1 D-Menan is one that can be on the ice in all facets of the game, power play, shorthanded situations. Is good in the defensive zone, can skate and make timely plays on defense and offense. Has a good shot and knows how/when to use it. All of these in my opinion characterize a defenseman who would be labeled #.
Yes, Paul Martin qualifies as a #1. However, if there was a pool filled with the names of all the #1 D-Men in the NHL there are others I would chose. However, Yes, I would resign him. He is skilled and has played well for us.
You're Next!
Sorry for the typos. The phone rang and I lost my train of thought.
You're Next!
by thatguy011071 on May 18, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
My definition, in order of priority
1. Logs big minutes against the other team’s best players
- has a strong showing
- sustains performance and doesn’t wear down through overuse
- durability – remains largely injury free
2. Makes the rest of his team better just by being on the ice
- directly impacts the team’s performance through measurable statistics like Corsi and shots against
- indirectly impacts the team’s performance through immeasurable things like leading through example, being a team player and forcing opponents to consider his abilities when game planning and line matching
3. Good around the puck
- can fight for and win the puck along the boards in the defensive zone
- can move the puck out of the zone and/or carry it out himself effectively
4. Can QB a PP/PK
5. Can score on occasion
- has a good point shot and/or wrister that worries opponents
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
That said, I think Martin is close, but not there. He could be a number 1, but I think is more suited to a number 2.
He brings a lot to the corps and brings almost all of the above, but lacks just enough from 2, 3 and, I feel, 4 and 5, to not fully meet the criteria.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
martin is missing
#3 and #4 on your list.
by Imperator_Celtic on May 18, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
this part of # 3
•can fight for and win the puck along the boards in the defensive zone
by Imperator_Celtic on May 18, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
+10000
Fan's Creed: (Play well+Win=Praise) (Play Well+Lose=Praise) (Play Lousy+Win=Criticism) (Play lousy+Lose & Bandwagon Jumpers=Off with thier heads!)
by LoNJDTechnology on May 18, 2010 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions
John,
You’re getting carried away with the Martin cheerleading! It’s IPMWT around here these days. We all get it. You like him, he deserves to be back and he’s a good, effective D-Man.
To answer your questions though…
1) A #1 D-man is somebody who can not only change, but control the pace of the game be it with his precise positioning, big hits, and/or puck moving/offensive rushes from the defesive zones. A #1 D-man is akin to a quarterback (and not in just the usual power play sort of way). A #1 D-man not only dictates how to stop an attack, but how to counter it and direct the charge forward.
2) Is Martin a #1 D-man? No. He is for the Devils only by default. Martin’s problem is that he is really good and really effective as you pointed out but he doesn’t take control, nor can he change a game with his play or skillset. Martin is a stabilizing force. While he makes any D unit he’s on better, He can’t be relied upon to ever break open a game. He compensates for other players mistakes and keeps the gears of a system running as smoothly as possible, but isn’t the sort of player who can elevate his whole team’s performance when on the ice.
He’s the perfect 2nd banana on a D-corp. The unheralded one who does all the little things that keep a D-solid. But that’s not what the Devils need especially if they’re forced to pay him like a #1 D-Man. The team has a habit of grooming these sorts of guys, Martin just happens to currently be at the head of his class on the roster. But unless he’s paired on a team with a D-Man who can take command of a game in some way or form, NJ is relegating it self to simply having solid D instead of outstanding, win you games D.
The larger question has nothing to do with Paul Martin, but I keep harping about him because he is a Devil (this is a Devils-centric blog) and he’s going to command a lot of money and I’ve been explaining why GMs will pay out for him this summer despite what opinions some may have about Martin’s quality.
If it makes you feel any better, today will begin a closer look at Kovalchuk as he stood out in PDO among this season’s team.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on May 18, 2010 12:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
At some point, you have to look whats best for the team, not just Martin. Again, like you said this is a Devils Centric Blog.
Like I said in another post…If you give Martin 5 Mill, what do you give Parise….Parise is much more of an asset than Martin….So do we give him 8 Mill and run into cap problems down the road.
Fact is we have too much tied up Rolston, Zubrus, Elias….and lets not forget Brodeur comes up in a few years. Do we give him less? More? Same? Let him walk?
I would much rather see Martin money spread over two players with shorter contract than Martin 5-5.5 over 5 years.
That’s what long term Front-loaded contracts are for. Martin can have a higher salary during the earlier years, and a lower Salary in the later years. Because the cap hit takes in consideration the average salary instead of the yearly salary. This means not only the Devils secure Martin for a long period of time but the Devils get Martin for much lower value than he would probably fetch on the free agent Market.
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by Kevin Sellathamby on May 18, 2010 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
two cents worth
A number one can be of 3 types:
1- A defensive specialist who is not an offensive liability
2- An offensive specialist who is not a defensive laibility
3- A player who is above average at each end, but not a shutdown defensmen nor a powerplay machine.
Regardless of the category they must be:
1- A game changer- regardless of which category they can step on the ice and take some action that changes the game.
2- A leader, able to inspire the team through thier words AND actions.
My opinion of Martin remains the same, 4 to 5 million I keep him. 5 million plus let him walk.
#1 Defenseman
A #1 D Man does not have to be the BESToffensively and BEST defensively. He can be either, must be GOOD at the other.
1) He has to be feared
2) He must lead by example
3) He can change a game
4) He MUST be able to play an elite level
Stevens was a number one, he was feared by many in open ice and along the boards. Players would adjust their game around him.
Scott Neidermayer because he was not only solid defensively, but could change the game and lead a team back from a deficit and really control the play.
Lidstrom could the same as Niedermayer.
On the same note I would not consider Mike Green a #1 defenseman because he does not have the defensive capabilities to hold of a strong attack and change a game.
The same would go for Hamhuis…he can play defense but does change a game. He does have the potential to change a game, if developed correctly and thrown into the right system.
There is a big difference between a team’s #1 and being considered a number 1 defender.
Do I think Martin is a #1 defender? He is borderline.
He has yet to show he can change a game…he shows flashes, but not consisant enough.
He does lead the defense and make it better….but do other players fear him? Doubtful.
Can he play at an elite level? Maybe….It would have been nice to see how he would have done in the Olympics….However, he has yet to lead NJ to a cup.
Should he be on a number one line? Is he considered #1….Not yet.
I would reiterate what pepe22 said…. 4 -5 Mill we keep…More…Let him go.
i just wana say how great this blog is.
the posts are different the Fire and Ice.. they’re more open ended and give different types of information.
Best of all, there aren’t 200 comments per entry!!! There may only be 10 comments, but they are 10 GOOD comments.. and there is the option to reply to comments.
Awesome site. Glad its not flooded with idiots like some other blogs..
by Matthew Gigawatts Maneri on May 18, 2010 1:22 PM EDT reply actions
Fire and Ice is more of a news outlet, Gulitti rarely gives his opinion, more just reports what he hears. But he is the Devils beat guy, PRs go-to, and gets new info out faster than even the Devs own website. I don’t bother reading the F&I comments, though. Its mostly loudmouths jumping on whatever bandwagon is popular.
If Andrew Peters ever plays again it will be too soon.
by LangsForPres on May 18, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks.
I do take steps necessary to keep the riff-raff out. This is the place for opinion and analysis and so we discuss it.
To Gulitti’s credit, he does engage comments from time to time, but I think right about now, he wishes he had a platform like this where users would have to register, follow rules, be able to reply directly to certain comments, rec/flag comments, etc., etc. The problem with popularity is, well, it’s more difficult to manage.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on May 18, 2010 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
are we sure such a thing exists?
I can’t help taking Ockham’s razor to this. Isn’t a #1 defenseman simply the best defenseman on a given team?
Every NHL team is – or should be – actively looking to make their team better, right? So if a defenseman who is better than your current best defenseman becomes available and you acquire him through FA or trade, doesn’t HE then become the #1 defenseman?
I think we’re confusing #1 with greatness. What we all feel like the Devils lack right now is a GREAT defenseman. Paul Martin is a VERY GOOD defenseman, maybe even an EXCELLENT defenseman, but he seems to lack some intangible qualities that make him GREAT. That said, he’s still the #1 defenseman IN NEW JERSEY. If Lou could find someone better, he would – but there isn’t anyone on the market this summer who is.
I think my problem is how does signing Paul Martin make the team better from every other year. Here we are giving him a salary that is that of a Stevens, Lidstrom and Niedermayer, but we all seem to agree he is not level. I do not see the justification of having to spend over 5 mill to keep a guy who is good, when the defense is still clunky when it comes to skating ability.
that’s the thing – you’re not giving him a salary of a Stevens, you’re giving him the salary of the best UFA defenseman in the 2010 offseason. In an open market the player’s value is determined by what teams are willing to pay him and his skill relative to the other free agents on the market. You’re not paying him more than he’s worth; he’s worth whatever you pay him – the number itself is immaterial.
he’s worth whatever you pay him – the number itself is immaterial.
No, he’s not. We just had this kind of argument regarding Brian Rolston in other threads. What someone is worth, and what they get paid are two completely different figures. If the two were always in lockstep, you could trade any two players with identical contracts for each other, one-for-one, at any time and both teams would do it. The fact is, they aren’t the same…. and players who have a cap figure far higher than their contracts don’t often get traded because their contracts give them “negative trade value”.
For example, Brian Rolston, Sheldon Souray, and Mike Green all have roughly the same contract remaining (2 years, at just over $5 million per). Would most of us on this board trade Rolston straight up for either of the other two? I know I’d take Green in a heartbeat, and I’d probably go for Souray as well (and hope he stays healthy). If you ask fans of the other two teams, you’ll get different answers. Washington wouldn’t trade Mike Green for either one of the other two, and I don’t know that Edmonton would swap Souray for Rolston, either.
The number of what you pay him is the necessary figure to secure his services. A player who is an unrestricted free agent has maximal leverage, because he can work with all thirty teams and play one off against another. A player who is a restricted free agent has much less value, because you either have to trade for him or overpay him to a dramatic degree (and surrender draft picks) to secure his services.
agreed
I’m just making a distinction between ‘worth’ and ‘talent.’ Rollie’s albatross of a contract is a prime example of a player not living up to his contract, but he was still ‘worth’ the $5M/per Lou paid to get him in 2008. The market sets value; it’s up to an individual team to determine if they are happy paying the market value for a given player’s talent.
In 2008 the free agency market may have set Rolston’s market value at $5 million. John’s pointed out it may have necessitated the no trade clause. The biggest problem however is his age, he was 35 therefore his salary stays on the books no matter what the Devils do. He can’t be placed on waivers and stashed in the minors. Without a trade (difficult due to the NTC) The only way his $5 million comes off is with a long-term injury exception. Considering he was rumored to have something close to 20 offers (how many were for more than 2 years we won’t know) it doesn’t seem the risk of giving a long-term deal to an over 35 player was given sufficient weight. With the cap rules for over 35 contracts one has to be pretty sure the player you’re signing to the deal is going to perform over the course of it.
Martin is similar, sure he’s the best D-man on the market but if you overpay and he underperforms you might be on the hook for a long time (see: Redden, Wade; and to a lesser extent Campbell, Brian) and be forced to give on assets you like to keep (e.g. Parise; other young prospects potentially coming up like Tedenby). With a hard cap, that could go down, you can’t just consider current market value you have to think over the long term as well. Is Paul Martin worth $6-$7 million over 5-7 years? Its possible that the market sets his value that high so one has to seriously consider if he is worth that kind of money or if such a contract handicaps the team 3 even 4 years down the road.
Washington wouldn't
trade Mike Green for BOTH those players, even if they were paid half as much.
Go Jets
Go Devils
look at it from the other direction
Does LOSING Martin make the team worse? I DARE you to answer no. It’s not that resigning a player improves the team, that can only truly be done by addition, but by subtracting a player you’re generally worsening the team (unless that player is Mike Mottau or Andy Peters)
Go Jets
Go Devils
Agreed, losing Martin would almost definitely hurt the team. That doesn’t mean we should pay any price to keep him…. if Martin walks, perhaps his money can be used for multiple players who combined offer more than Martin does on his own. Look at the Buffalo Sabres, who are just fine even though they’ve lost a ton of top talent to free agency the last few years (Briere and Drury to free agency, Campbell to a trade when it was obvious they couldn’t afford him).
The question that is also hard to answer is the ripple effects of Martin leaving. When Martin and Oduya got hurt this season, we saw Andy Greene step up and play better than anyone could have hoped for. If Martin is gone, perhaps someone like Anssi Salmela or Mark Fraser gets more ice time and shows more than we’d otherwise expect from their play thus far. Maybe an Eckford or Corrente gets a regular crack at the lineup and is a pleasant surprise.
Sure, my points in the second paragraph go into the realm of the really unpredictable. I’m certain the more risk-averse among us would probably rather have something of a proven commodity instead of promoting a rookie — the bird-in-hand vs. the bird-in-bush argument. If we’re really all that high on the potential of our top prospects, however, isn’t there a point where they need to step it up and prove it?
Similar argument was had about receivers on the Jets blog http://www.ganggreennation.com – richer44’s point is exactly right. A #1 defenseman is nothing more than the best defenseman on his team. Makes no difference what another team has. There is only one #1 defenseman that would be a #1 on every team, although that would probably be a major debate as to who that is, but the defenseman that would be #1 on any team is the only #1 defenseman, everyone else has to be compared to his team and his team alone.
Go Jets
Go Devils
A little off topic
What is the difference between a cap hit and a salary?
Average salary of the contract is the player’s cap hit.
For example, Paul Martin’s last deal was signed in 2007. In 2007-08, he was paid $3 million, in 2008-09, he was paid $4 million, and in 2009-10, he was paid $4.5 million. The average of that total was $3.833 million, which was his cap hit for all three years.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on May 18, 2010 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions
The debate about who is a “true #1 defenseman” reminds me of similar debates about who is a “true #1 wide receiver” (from the NFL). I go on a simple question to separate most of the wheat from the chaff:
Do you have to be aware of the guy every time he is on the ice, and plan for who he might match up against in a big series?
I think this question answers itself. If you worry about the guy to the point where you adjust what you’re doing on account of him, he’s a #1. If he’s a good player, even an All-Star, but you don’t go out of your way for him, he’s not a #1.
Beyond that, a #1 defenseman has to have earned that pedigree over time. We’ve seen a lot of players who are like supernovas — they burn bright, but they burn out fast. We’ve seen a lot of guys get paid #1 money because they were in the right place at the right time — e.g. Brian Campbell.
A #1 defenseman also has to not be a liability anywhere on the ice, and have areas of strength in others. Someone like Sandis Ozolinsh was a marvelous offensive talent, but helpless in his own end of the ice.
To pull a quote from mid-air, a #1 defenseman is like porn: you’ll know it when you see it.
The Devils have had two true #1 defensemen in their history: Stevens and Niedermeyer. Stevens was a physical and defensive beast…. up through 1994, he was also a premiere offensive defenseman. Consider that he set several single-season, offensive team records for defenders that year, and there’s no reason to believe they will fall anytime soon. Niedermeyer didn’t have the physical presence, and wasn’t as terrific defensively, but he was the best offensive defenseman in the league for a long time and could go up and down the ice all night, even logging big minutes.
With all due respect to Brian Rafalski and Paul Martin, neither one of them qualifies. They’re a nice #2 kind of guy, and most teams wouldn’t object to having either one as their top defender, but they aren’t the kind of guy you stay up nights worrying about.
Right now, I’d say there are very few true #1 types left in the NHL these days. If you want a good example of who I’d consider in that mold these days, look no further than the team who kicked our tails in the playoffs. If Pronger isn’t a #1, I don’t know who is.
I'm crushed
You mean Phil Russell wasn’t a #1 defenseman? How about Tapio Levo, surely he must be?
Good points!!
Go Jets
Go Devils
My take
Remember, I’m most interested in criteria that determines who really is and is not a #1 defenseman as well as whether Paul Martin meets it or not.
The following skills and qualities determines what makes a great Defenseman. Although PM possesses the following skills and qualities, I can’t say that he is a #1 Defenseman. He is still young so he can continue to improve his numbers and break in to the elite Defensemen club.
1.) Smooth skater.
2.) Excellent puck mover & passer.
3.) Dictates the flow of the game at will.
4.) Delivers hard body checks.
5.) Has superb recuperative ability in the defensive zone.
6.) Effective in offensive situations.
7.) Accurate shooter, particularly at the point.
8.) Rational PP Quartebacking.
9.) Speed.
10.) Tough, Strong, Agressive when necessary.
11.) Durable; high GP totals.
P. Martin’s Career Statistics
Lg GP G A PTS +/- PIM EV PP SH GW S S% TOI ATOI
NHL 400 26 137 163 55 114 15 11 0 5 484 5.4 9384 23:28
Fan's Creed: (Play well+Win=Praise) (Play Well+Lose=Praise) (Play Lousy+Win=Criticism) (Play lousy+Lose & Bandwagon Jumpers=Off with thier heads!)
by LoNJDTechnology on May 18, 2010 9:36 PM EDT reply actions
He’s 29.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on May 18, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
ive noticed this year how well the older defence men are doing in the playoffs,do u think he will improve i kindda do.hes only a year older then when rafalski started look at him now.
by Imperator_Celtic on May 19, 2010 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Rafalski also played four years at the University of Wisconsin, and then several years in Europe before coming to the Devils as an undrafted free agent. It isn’t really the same comparison as for Paul Martin.
it took all that time in europe to improve enough to get into the nhl,i was only talking about the improvment he has had since he has been in the nhl.
by Imperator_Celtic on May 19, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't 29 considered a fairly young age?
Fan's Creed: (Play well+Win=Praise) (Play Well+Lose=Praise) (Play Lousy+Win=Criticism) (Play lousy+Lose & Bandwagon Jumpers=Off with thier heads!)
by LoNJDTechnology on May 18, 2010 10:51 PM EDT reply actions
It’s a hockey player’s prime. He’s not likely going to learn anything drastically new.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on May 18, 2010 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Better if...
Martin could get better ie, more points, better +/- if the overall depth on defense was improved. He is what he is now due to the fact that the defense is not that skilled. White, Salvador, Mottau, Frazer will never wow anyone with their offensive skills. That leaves Martin and Greene to do all of that. So, signing Martin is just the beginning. Improving the overall skill level on defense is the key to getting more out more out of Martin.
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by thatguy011071 on May 19, 2010 8:07 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
A true #1
A true #1 defenseman doesn’t need to score 15 goals, he doesn’t need to quarterback a powerplay, he doesn’t need to lead the division in open-ice hits. He does need to be durable, and play 25-30 minutes if called upon, and match up against the opponent’s top forwards at any given time, especially for an extended time, such as a playoff series. A top defenseman must be clutch, which means not being caught out of position while trying to make a play offensively, but at the same time, he must be good with the puck, and his +/- rating should reflect that.
Paul Martin is not a #1 defenseman.
Yankees in baseball, Giants in football and Devils in hockey. It's that simple. I have no off-season.
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