Would Olli Jokinen be a gamble worth Taking?
Most of us here know that during the off season, Lou has a few Priorities. One of the being the re-signing of Paul Martin, another would be trying to keep Ilya Kovalchuk as a Devil, and finding a suitable second line center. While John has already given some food for thought on the first two, I wanted to look into a player that could possibly fill the void at second line center: Olli Jokinen.
via www.hockeydrunk.com: How to Draw Olli Jokinen
Right now, he's about past his prime at 32. It's clearly showing, as his point totals dropped from a solid 71 (34 Goals, 37 Assists) in 07-08 with the Panthers, 57 points in 08-09 split between Phoenix (21 Goals 21 Assists in 57 GP) and Calgary (8 Goals 7 assists in 15 GP), to a mere 50 points in 09-10 between the Rangers (4 goals 11 assists in 26 GP) and the Flames (11 goals 24 assists in 56 GP).
While this season has been horrible for him, lets face facts: Calgary was pretty bad offensively this season, ranking 29th in Goals/Game at 2.48 (Ahead of Boston) and Tied for 26th with the Isles in powerplay efficiency, converting 16% of them (Ahead of Offensive juggernauts Toronto and Florida and a defense oriented Coyotes team). The Rangers were better offensively than the Flames (16th in goals/game and 13th in PP efficiency), but comparatively, they weren't nearly as bad or as snake-bitten as the Flames were offensively.
But why Jokinen? Take a look at the centers available on the free agent Market. Outside of Tomas Plekanec and Patrick Marleau, most of them are either grinders, enforcers or checkers. Jokinen isn't any of those three, but he's a top 6 forward, which most of those centers aren't. Plus, he might end up being really cheap due to him having a horrible contract year and the fact that he might be going to the KHL because of the lack of interest in him. That and we're also talking about a 4 time 30 goal scorer, a Former all star and one of the most durable players in the NHL (Has only missed 7 games since the 2002-03 season).
My question is: Do you think the Devils should take a gamble on Jokinen and sign him to a 1 year deal? Discuss
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Thanks to my recent on-ice impact analysis, I can provide some quick thoughts.
Jokinen’s on-ice impact wasn’t good in the last three seasons.
In 2007-08, he only ranked in the top 30 in just on-ice SF/60 and just outside of it for SF/60 impact. Meaning, when he stepped on the ice, his team’s shots for per 60 minutes went up. That’s good. Everything else, on the other hand, was not so good.
In 2008-09, he didn’t even rank that high in shots, falling in the lower half of all the forwards I filtered out in all areas from on-ice stats to on-ice impact to adjusted CORSI/60 to even just PDO. Not desirable at all.
2009-10 saw improvement to his impact. He didn’t rank in the top 30 but he had good on-ice GF/60, SF/60, and SF/60 impact – all above half. His adjusted CORSI/60 was even 54th, so that was a big improvement. Again, all else wasn’t so good.
However, overall, he didn’t appear to make the Panthers, Flames, or Rangers all that much better when he stepped on the ice outside of a handful of stats.
Looking at GVT, his total 2009-10 GVT was 7.6. Not bad, that puts him with Simon Gagne, Gilbert Brule, and Steve Sullivan. So he has contributed despite some not-so-inspiring on-ice and on-ice impact stats.
His durability, his 49.3 FO% from last season, and the fact he would fit better on an offensive line are all good points. Perhaps he would fit in with Derek Zona’s suggestion that he could be a center who outscores weak competition while Zajac’s getting it done against the tougher opponents.
But I’m not so sure if he’ll be an answer. For a one year deal, OK, I might take a flyer on Jokinen if the other center options aren’t available. If it works, great; if not, then go back to FA for 2011 or hope there’s a center ready from within.
Given that he’s coming off a salary of $5.25 million (!!!), I’m not so confident he’ll want to take significantly less money. I don’t think the Devils should go after him hard or anyway; but he could be a Plan B/C move.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
Correction
Per CapGeek, Jokinen made $5.5 million in salary, $5.25 was his cap hit.
He had very good production going into the signing but, I don’t know, for $5+ million plus, I want to see a player contribute a little more. Or at least be absolutely outstanding in terms of production or contribute in some other way.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on May 22, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I never really thought of that suggestion Derek brought up, but it seems quite logical. Also, thanks for all the advanced stats stuff, I wanted to use some of that, but I’m not really that familiar with them so i didn’t
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by Kevin Sellathamby on May 22, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Olli looks like Homer Simpson in that mugshot..
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
by RolliePollieKovy on May 22, 2010 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Iffy
Its either a home run or Brian Rolston.. I was ecstatic when Lou signed Rollie, look at him now…. Jokinen is kind of a gamble. He could either score 20+ goals or barely reach 15 goals. He could be a valuable asset at a cheap price in between Kovy and Elias. I mean look at the guys he played with, Rangers- Avery, Callahan, maybe Prospal, and with the exception of Gaborik. Not that type of offense powerful line every center wants. Look at Gomez. You see other centers that I think are better than Jokinen like Cullen, Koivu, Belanger, and (yes) Higgins. Higgins is interesting to me. Loved a big city in Montreal and faulters with New York. New Jersey could seem the (low market) media he didn’t get in New York. Given Higgins had terrible line combos with the Rangers and with Montreal I think he had Kovalev and maybe Kostystin. Like John said above Jokinen probably wouldn’t take a salary less than 3 million. One year. Fine. Multiple. See you in the KHL buddy. There are better options than Olli right now.
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
by RolliePollieKovy on May 22, 2010 2:11 PM EDT reply actions
My thoughts were it would be like a Max Afinogenov type signing: signing a player who’s value is low, and then getting the most out of it. If he plays well, We get the good end of the deal. If he sucks, he just plays less and walks after the end of the season. The Thrashers got the good end of the deal, but obviously playing with Kovalchuk and Antropov would make you much better. It’s not like he’s going to play with Parise and Elias, but it’s not like the Devils are going to lose anything (outside of a roster spot, cap space and salary).
Cheers, Complaints, homerism and bashing of mediocre pop musicians in 140 Characters
"DO NOT get stuck behind Kyle Wellwood in the buffet line. This isn't really etiquette, but it will prevent you from starving to death"- Down Goes Brown on Etiquette for Jason Spezza's wedding
by Kevin Sellathamby on May 22, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Here is a list of the FA centers that are "valuable" in 2011....
http://nhlnumbers.com/freeagents.php?team=none&pos=C&summer=2011&status=ufa&type=none
Obviously this class of centers in 2011 seems to be deepest one of the two years. Once again I’d take Jokinen for a 1 year contract for about 3 millon max. If he does well, then hell sign him for another year. Afinogenov obviously was a boom playing with Antropov and Kovy. Jokes (Jokinen) is only 30 years old and could very be the center we look for. Only at 3 million would I like the signing.
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
by RolliePollieKovy on May 22, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Or in better words in John's statement.. He wouldn't take a pay cut.
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
by RolliePollieKovy on May 22, 2010 2:13 PM EDT reply actions
I'll jump on another bandwagon that has been circling lately
Matthew Lombardi had slightly better or equivalent numbers in nearly every category, plus stayed out of the box a heck of a lot more, is 3 years younger and less than half the (current) salary. Avoiding washed-up or declining ex-Rangers is always a good move.
Go Jets
Go Devils
While he’s a guy that should be pursued, it’s more the fact that Phoenix has a good amount of cap space available to re-sign him (over $20 Mil i believe) and his price might have been elevated due to his play
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"DO NOT get stuck behind Kyle Wellwood in the buffet line. This isn't really etiquette, but it will prevent you from starving to death"- Down Goes Brown on Etiquette for Jason Spezza's wedding
by Kevin Sellathamby on May 22, 2010 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
But does he want to stay in Phoenix and then move to another state or city?
Thats a mess I would avoid. Hopefully he thinks the same thing.
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
by RolliePollieKovy on May 22, 2010 5:33 PM EDT reply actions
I wouldn’t touch Olli Jokinen with a 10-foot pole. He’s only 32, younger than Langenbrunner, and Elias. If he’s about done as a useful player this early, I wouldn’t even go near him.
If you’re looking for a veteran who could be signed to a 1-year deal on the cheap, how about bringing Brendan Morrison back? He had a decent year for the Capitals. Yes, I know he wouldn’t be playing in the same system, but I’m not convinced that Alex Semin and Eric Fehr are amazingly better linemates than Patrik Elias and Dainius Zubrus or David Clarkson.
Uhm.
Semin’s much better than Elias
Last year Fehr was better than Zubrus.
Morrison played in an offensive powerhouse system where everyone scored 20+ goals. If Peters played on that team he would have even 10 goals.
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
by RolliePollieKovy on May 22, 2010 7:07 PM EDT reply actions
That’s a stretch for Andrew Peters. Maybe 1 goal at most, but even playing in the Caps system can’t make Andrew Peters score
Cheers, Complaints, homerism and bashing of mediocre pop musicians in 140 Characters
"DO NOT get stuck behind Kyle Wellwood in the buffet line. This isn't really etiquette, but it will prevent you from starving to death"- Down Goes Brown on Etiquette for Jason Spezza's wedding
by Kevin Sellathamby on May 22, 2010 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Last year Fehr was better than Zubrus.
How? Didn’t both players have differing roles at times?
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on May 22, 2010 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Point wise Fehr was better. I know Zubie was out a bunch of games but on paper Fehr was better point wise. Defense I can’t comment on.
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
by RolliePollieKovy on May 23, 2010 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
It was a joke actually....
he would have atleast 3.
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
by RolliePollieKovy on May 22, 2010 7:36 PM EDT reply actions
Martin isn't coming back
Lou gave the general speech that he gave when Rafalski, Gomez, Madden and Gionta left, the old “we respect all our players” speech. He wants Kovalchuk, not Martin.
How about Eric Belanger? Lombardi? What about Madden? Madden apparently just built a house in NJ.
Yankees in baseball, Giants in football and Devils in hockey. It's that simple. I have no off-season.
Madden and Co.
Why would Madden leave NJ to go to Chicago, move his family, and move on from the Devils if he was going to sign the next year with NJ? It doesn’t make sense. He may have a house but everyone is in Chicago from his family. And lets face it, Chicago actually fills their arena 20,000+ every game. If I was playing I would rather play in Chicago when the fans show up and the team wins in the playoffs. Belanger would be a nice fit. Very defensive and could help Kovy when he gets in trouble. Lombardi would be the cheapest center that plays a great game. Not that Plekanec doesn’t or Marleau but there demanding 6-7 million.
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
by RolliePollieKovy on May 23, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Really.
Where did Lou say this? What did he actually say?
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on May 23, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Simple answer: No.
Because:
…lets face facts: Calgary was pretty bad offensively this season, ranking 29th in Goals/Game at 2.48…The Rangers were better offensively than the Flames (16th in goals/game and 13th in PP efficiency)…
if being on teams that struggle offensively excuses his lack of offensive production, adding him to the 19th ranked offense isn’t going to help our Devils.
Stats aside, I personally don’t like the guy. Never have.
He was relied on in Florida to be “the” guy, but never lived up to expectations. He was supposed to find his groove with the change in scenery in Phoenix and was even worse. He was supposed to be part of the spark in Calgary to get them over the hump, and they couldn’t get rid of him fast enough. He wasn’t really supposed to do much for the Rangers as he came over in part of a salary dump, but they were really hoping he’d help their sputtering Gaborik offense. True to form, however, he didn’t.
How many fresh starts does a guy deserve before it’s safe to write him off as a career underachiever?
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
Considering his best offensive seasons were with a perennial bottom feeder like Florida, maybe he can only play in smaller markets. He had 21 goals in his short stint in Phoenix, but was mediocre when playing in the bigger markets like Calgary and NY
Cheers, Complaints, homerism and bashing of mediocre pop musicians in 140 Characters
"DO NOT get stuck behind Kyle Wellwood in the buffet line. This isn't really etiquette, but it will prevent you from starving to death"- Down Goes Brown on Etiquette for Jason Spezza's wedding
by Kevin Sellathamby on May 23, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point....
Get Douglas Murray on this team now!!!! Somebody who can take the body.
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
by RolliePollieKovy on May 23, 2010 3:30 PM EDT reply actions
Other "risk-reward" moves...
I certainly think Jokinen would be an interesting one year tryout option. I also think that Saku Koivu and Matt Cullen would also be interesting options, and personally, I would rather see one of those guys on a one year deal. I want to reiterate the one year part, because I certainly think that two to three years from now, we are going to have great depth at center on our team. And we all don’t want another brian rolston scenario. Koivu and Cullen were both very productive for their respective teams this year (considering they are not “#1” centers) and I think would fit very nicely as a no. 2 center for a year, maybe two in cullens case.
Of course I am sure either player would want more than a one or two year deal but I think if it came down to them willing to sign a short term deal, it would fill a big void on our number two center position, until Henrique and Josefson are ready, which I would imagine is one or two more years.
Question..
why hasn’t the prospect of bringing in Prospal been brought up he was making just over 1 million this year with the Rangers. Secondly he has had experience playing with some real solid players such as Gaborik, St. Louis, and Lecavalier. Unless of course he has signed some deal over in Europe that i’m not aware of recently. I think a line with Kovy, Prospal and Elias be a great line. And of course leave the top line as is being ZZPops. then you could have Rolston down with Clarkson, and Palmieri, hasn’t Rolston been a center at some point and if not then i’d assume signing Prospal would open us up for another center such as a Belanger and the fourth line could be P3L, Pelley and maybe Zharky or some other youngster. I’m also taking into account that makes it tough to keep Martin. However to get Prospal even at 2 million we could put Pandolfo in AHL that would free up some cap space. And if a committee of young defense didn’t work out we could bring in another veteran such as McKee or a dark horse who i’d go after that being Douglas Murray though that would be a long shot.
My apologies thought Prospal had played center couldn't find evidence to back up that claim.
Which i guess would explain why he wasn’t brought up as a potential center replacement though he would still be a good player to have. If that happened guess we would have to hope Elias could keep improving as a center though i agree with those who say he should be a winger but i’d rather him as a center then some of our other candidates for center.
by KingHellfire on May 24, 2010 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions
The Rangers have like 6 centers on their team anyway.
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
by RolliePollieKovy on May 24, 2010 8:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Also id make either White or Kovalchuk.....
the Captain. I’d also like to see the likes of Leblond getting some powerplay time who knows could end up doing the dirty work that Holmstrom now enjoys in Detroit. I realize to expect those numbers Homstrom gets for Leblond is way out there but he would make a good screen heck in the playoffs we used White and you could see he looked out of sink up in the crease. I’m interested to see how many think me insane for suggesting Kovy as captain. Though that may make Parise feel he’s gonna get the axe next year.
you’re clearly being sarcastic, aren’t you?
Cheers, Complaints, homerism and bashing of mediocre pop musicians in 140 Characters
"DO NOT get stuck behind Kyle Wellwood in the buffet line. This isn't really etiquette, but it will prevent you from starving to death"- Down Goes Brown on Etiquette for Jason Spezza's wedding
by Kevin Sellathamby on May 24, 2010 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually i wasn't!
explain why you wouldn’t want them as Captain? I really think though best candidate for Captain is Brodeur didn’t mention him because its a rarity a goalie as Captain. If i’m not mistaken Luongo first goalie to be Captain since like 1968 or something.
by KingHellfire on May 25, 2010 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I was talking about Leblond mainly, he might be effective as an enforcer, but he’s not Holmstrom. Plus there’s Zubrus and Clarkson to screen goalies and cause chaos in front of the net
Cheers, Complaints, homerism and bashing of mediocre pop musicians in 140 Characters
"DO NOT get stuck behind Kyle Wellwood in the buffet line. This isn't really etiquette, but it will prevent you from starving to death"- Down Goes Brown on Etiquette for Jason Spezza's wedding
by Kevin Sellathamby on May 25, 2010 6:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Goalies should never be captains for one main reason. What happens when the goalie has an off night or bad bounces, and he gets pulled? What do the other 5 on the ice do when their captain gets benched?
Holmstrom is in a league of his own...
Leblond fights, I haven’t seen any Holmstrom fights in a while. Theres no way Leblond will get PP time unless he can show Holmstrom like screening. But in my case thats Clarkson’s position.
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
by RolliePollieKovy on May 24, 2010 8:04 AM EDT reply actions
I agree with zubrus..
the only thing im concerned with in regards to Clarky is the penalties he takes don’t want our powerplay ended due to a penalty by us. Hope all the bad penalties he took in philly series won’t happen to us again. Also would love to see Holmstrom come to NJ wishful thinking i know.
I’d like to jettison the idea of resigning Kovalchuk and think about real needs here. That money fills all the holes we have left and brings the team right back up to a powerhouse. Kovalchuk gives us more of the same problem we’ve had forever – Elias/Zubrus at center. I would prefer to see us really go after Marleau (someone who fits perfectly into the system) but if he is not gotten than a player like Jokinen/Lombardi is a must. Josefson cannot play on the second line right away, and Elias and Zubrus play ten times better on the wing.
Too bad we can’t do a With or Without You comparing Elias and Zubrus at wing with Elias and Zubrus at center.
It could be done if someone can pinpoint what games each player played at each position.
Of course, given in-game changes, that may be really, really hard to do.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on May 25, 2010 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions
If we got Marleau..
then i’d definitely be letting Kovalchuk go. But more than anything tell me if i’m wrong we need a defensive overhaul. I’d make sure we could get Marleau before parting with Kovalchuk though. Lets not forget though Zubrus and Elias are natural wingers just our last two coaches couldn’t get that through there head. Whoever decided they were better at center was mistaken.

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