2010 Free Agency Primer for the New Jersey Devils
by John Fischer on Jun 28, 2010 11:28 PM EDT
in Devils Issues & Views
88 comments
It's been a main point of discussion for over 2 months, and on Thursday, July 1, 2010, all of the looming questions, overreaching concerns, and made-up proposals will all be answered, reconciled, and laid to rest. This Thursday marks the end of the 2009-10 contract year and free agency will open, allowing teams to make official offers to unrestricted free agents. On Thursday, the offseason truly explodes with activity throughout the league.
The New Jersey Devils have two big free agents that may hit the market this summer: defenseman Paul Martin and trade-deadline acquisition Ilya Kovalchuk. Of course, much of the discussion has centered on which one the Devils will try to re-sign; who should be re-signed to replace them if necessary; and what other moves the Devils should make. As both are unrestricted free agents, either one or both may decide to test the market themselves and try to get maximum value for their services. This is their right as UFAs and such a decision does not necessarily mean Lou made a bad offer or no offer at all; it's entirely up to the player regardless of what Lou does.
The futures of those two in New Jersey are not the only decisions they will have to make. There are a number of restricted free agents to sign, most notably David Clarkson. As reported by Tom Gulitti earlier today, all RFAs except for Brad Snetsinger and Myles Stoesz were qualified, so there should be no concern for the Devils to lose any NHL caliber RFAs to the market.
What follows after the jump is a primer of the Devils' free agency situation. Please feel free to discuss what you think the Devils should do on Thursday, be it which players to try and keep, which players should walk, and how much a player should be re-signed. Please do not use this post to discuss stupid and unrealistic trade options like the rights of Ilya Kovalchuk to a team for a player; or any proposal that involves a Devil with a no trade or no movement clause.
The 2010-11 Devils Roster as of June 28, 2010 per CapGeek:
Roster Size: 16 players under contract - 11 forwards, 4 defensemen, 1 goaltender
Payroll: $45.6 million; $240k in bonuses (Vladimir Zharkov)
Players with clauses: Patrik Elias (NMC); Brian Rolston (NTC); Jamie Langenbrunner (NTC); Jay Pandolfo (NTC); Colin White (NTC); Martin Brodeur (NTC)
Cap Space: $14.04 million
Expected Budget: As much as Lou feels is necessary. Given the hard lessons learned of 2005-06 and 2006-07, I doubt Lou will go right up to the ceiling; but there's no constraint outside of the cap itself.
Pending UFAs: Ilya Kovalchuk; Paul Martin; Rob Niedermayer; Mike Mottau; Martin Skoula; Ilkka Pikkarainen; Yann Danis; Ben Walter; Dean McAmmond; Cory Murphy; Tim Sestito
Pending UFAs Already Elsewhere: Martin Skoula (signed with Avangard Omsk of KHL) Ilkka Pikkarainen (waived, moved to CSKA Moscow of KHL); Cory Murphy (signed with Swiss team, Zurich Lions)
Only three of the pending UFAs from New Jersey made over a million dollars last year: Kovalchuk, Martin, and Niedermayer. The rest on this list did not, with Mottau being the only one who may command a seven figure salary for proving that he can play defense somewhat well sometimes in the NHL. After all, he is not a backup goaltender like Danis or AHL caliber players like Walter and Sestito.
I've discussed Martin and Kovalchuk at length on this blog, so I'll repeat my cases in summary. I've argued that Paul Martin has stacked up quite well with other defenseman in the last two seasons at even strength (08-09; 09-10); as well in comparison with other New Jersey Devil defensemen. Among all of the UFA defensemen this summer, Martin was the most effective out of all of them who weren't named Nicklas Lidstrom. When Martin steps on the ice, the Devils improve in both shooting and scoring at both ends of the rink at even strength. No other defenseman on the market can do that - only one or the other at most. Replacing Martin would be really difficult regardless of the sentiment that he's not a true #1 defenseman, therefore if the Devils are going to let any defensemen walk, it should be Mottau - who is more easily replaceable.
Kovalchuk, on the other hand, is an interesting case. He's a fantastic shooter with reason to believe he'll be more productive next season, his defensive contributions are better than what most may think, and yet he isn't the big impact player on the ice as Zach Parise has been. Ultimately, the issue with re-signing Kovalchuk has to do more with the fact the Devils already have two excellent left wings in Parise and Elias, and in order to retain Parise through an extension, money would have to be made available. Signing Kovalchuk would undercut that, not to mention create the problem of figuring out who gets prime minutes at LW between Kovalchuk and Parise and figuring out what to do with Elias.
In this awesome post that further highlights the money issue, Quisp at Jewels of the Crown ran the numbers with assumed salary of $8.5 million for Kovalchuk. He concluded that the Devils could fit him in, but not without going cheap at everywhere else.
Personally, if it were up to me, I'd sign Paul Martin, sign a replacement defenseman for Mottau or consider bringing up a prospect, and by not re-signing Kovalchuk, I can get a third line center and still have plenty of money to commit to Parise. That's right, I would not retain the services of Niedermayer or McAmmond. As useful as they were and as much as I wouldn't mind either one - but not both - in a fourth line role, the Devils really do need a longer term solution for the third line center. If they aren't retained, perhaps Walter or Sestito can be given a shot for the fourth line role if they are interested in coming back.
As far as the backup goaltending position is concerned, I would have absolutely no problems bringing Danis back for another season. If he's not interested, expect the Devils to sign a cheap goaltender off the market.
Pending and Qualified RFAs: David Clarkson, Mark Fraser, Rod Pelley, Tyler Eckford, Patrick Davis, Olivier Magnan-Grenier
The big question: how much does David Clarkson sign for? Kevin Sellathamby asked this question earlier and posed his thoughts. Among all of the RFAs, Clarkson is the sure-fire, one-way, seven figure dollar contract. Will he get more than $2 million? How much more? How long? Clarkson won't be making minimal money, so how much he wants will certainly play a role in how much Lou can offer to UFAs.
Fraser, Pelley, and Eckford could all be given two-way deals, as all three are on the ends of the New Jersey depth chart, but would be near or at the top in Albany. Given Fraser's longer experience, I would guess that he'd be the most likely to get a one-way deal on top of a little raise. Though Eckford among other defensive prospects could push Fraser out of a spot in camp. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Pelley is given a one-way deal. Though since he is a fourth liner, the competition in camp may push him out. The concern is that if there's reason for the Devils to believe Fraser or Pelley won't be locks to make the New Jersey roster, then tying them to one-way deals make no sense. Still, all three will likely sign with New Jersey.
Davis and Magnan-Grenier were AHL players for the most part, though each got a taste of the NHL last season. They will likely remain with two-way deals until they can show they're prepared for the next step. That will have to come in camp, after contracts are signed, so for flexibility purposes they should get two-way deals.
Non-Qualified RFAs (Or Soon-to-Be UFAs via Non-Qualification): Brad Snetsinger, Myles Stoesz
Both Snetsinger and Stoesz were AHL players and will either re-sign with Albany or go elsewhere. Snetsinger hasn't shown too much at the AHL level to really consider him for any future as far as I can tell. Stoesz is a "tough guy." The Devils can let them walk without missing much, in my opinion; though Albany may want to retain them. According to Gulitti, Stoesz may sign a different deal per Lou; so Snetsinger may be the only one walking.
Key Needs: Third line center, puck-moving/offensive defenseman
With the trade that brought Jason Arnott back to New Jersey, I figure he can fit in just fine as the team's second line center. I've discovered that he will be a big help if he can stay healthy and contribute to the Devils' offense as he did to Nashville's offense last season. Therefore, the Devils really only need to find a new third line center. Based on the analysis I've done of the UFA centers, I definitely wouldn't mind Manny Malhotra. He's great on faceoffs; he contributed a respectable amount per GVT in San Jose; and when he was on the ice, the Sharks' shots against per 60 went down by a good amount at even strength. Feel free to make other suggestions, but I think Malhotra would be a great fit.
As far as defense is concerned, even if the Devils re-sign Martin, who else can move the puck well? Andy Greene? Risk a prospect? Mike Mottau was never great at it, but replacing him with someone who does have good offensive skills at the blueline would be a benefit. The Devils could get away with a cheaper option like Carlo Colaiacovo over someone like Joe Corvo, put him in the #5 spot as Greene takes Mottau's old role, and still result in a swifter blueline.
If the Devils are able to respond to both needs adequately while retaining Martin and filling the roster, then I think the offseason would have to be seen as a success.
Rivals Needs: Truthfully, I need all of the Devils' division rivals to fail and fail miserably. But seriously, here's what I think:
The New York Rangers would probably need secondary scoring to support Marian Gaborik since Vinny Prospal may be gone. They could possibly use some defensive help if the Marc Staal talks continue to falter. Yet, in all seriousness, they really need a new GM more than both. I'm not even being snarky, Glen Sather and his deals have hamstrung the Rangers more than helped them. Blueshirt Banter is a place to learn what's up with the lesser of the three NYC-area teams.
The Stanley Cup Final losing Philadelphia Flyers are interested in a new goaltender. One possibility is Evgeni Nabokov (who will be 34, not 35, at time of signing). Another possibility has been Marty Turco, tthough he apparently rejected a proposed offer already. The Flyers may be players in terms of a trade, since their cap space isn't all that welcoming; perhaps Jeff Carter will be unloaded to another team? Go check out Broad Street Hockey to learn what Philly may be doing.
The Pittsburgh Penguins really could use some wingers not named Bill Guerin to really take some of the load off of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Especially wingers who could be adept on a power play, as that was a bane of the Penguins' game all season long. Should Sergei Gonchar be on the outs, the Pens will need to sign a big minutes defenseman who can also salvage some of the offense that his absence may create. Want to know more? Please visit Pensburgh.
Lastly, I come of the New York Islanders who need to sign some players to meet the cap floor. Ideally, this would include defensemen and other depth players. With all due respect to a rival, the Isles are putting together a nice, young, hard working team that's difficult to play against. If Garth Snow can give Mark Streit additional support on the blueline, and if Rick DiPietro gets healthy and returns to "form," then this will be a team that can make some noise. Will they pull the trigger though, and if so, for who? Read up more about the Isles at Lighthouse Hockey.
Your Turn
First off, thank you for reading. Second, please feel free to discuss what you think the Devils should do on Thursday and this summer in the comments.
This can include but is not limited to which players to try and keep, which players should walk, and how much a player should be re-signed. This can be both for New Jersey and Albany, since a number of free agents are AHL players. If it has to do with the offseason, then let your voice be heard here. Please do not use this post to discuss stupid and unrealistic trade options like the rights of Ilya Kovalchuk to a team for a player; or any proposal that involves a Devil with a no trade or no movement clause. Please stay on-topic as usual, and remember that past history shows that it's a good idea to trust Lou.
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It's all about Martin
The Devils have two paths to travel down this offseason. With or without Paul Martin. If they DO sign him for 4.5-5.5MM per year then I would look to acquire Malhotra (whose dGVT I like the most) and Jordon Leopold. Out of all the UFA Dmen I think he would work best as a 2nd/3rd pairing guy to move the puck. He and Greene could split time in that role and I think Leopold comes in at around 2.5MM.
Now without Martin, they have to move quickly for a ‘top’ pairing guy and that probably means overpaying for the likes of Kubina for 2-3 years or making a move for Souray. That would be pretty scary.
I would love to resign Kovalchuk and if Lou can somehow make it work that’s great, I just don’t see how it happens. If the Devils can move Salvador somehow maybe they can sign Kovy, but I doubt it even then.
I would love to resign Kovalchuk and if Lou can somehow make it work that’s great, I just don’t see how it happens. If the Devils can move Salvador somehow maybe they can sign Kovy, but I doubt it even then.
I agree. I think Quisp’s post really hammers home the difficulty of retaining Kovalchuk. Mind you, it doesn’t even consider any of the other players to sign like the RFAs and Martin. Even moving Salvador creates space for backup goalie and the fringe RFAs; Clarkson and Martin may have to walk in that case.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
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by John Fischer on Jun 29, 2010 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see who could really afford him considering all the teams with self imposed cap issues and real cap issues.
Everyone talks about LA, but I don’t see it. They have the cap space this year to get him signed to a 7.5-8.5 deal but what about 2011-2012 ? They would have around $37MM dedicated to 10 players with Wayne Simmonds, Drew Doughty and Jackson RFA’s. So $23MM left for 13 slots with raises for the previous 3 players? I don’t see how it works to be honest. Maybe they are happy with their entire 3/4 line and 3rd pairing making league minimum or maybe they can move some contracts, but I don’t see how they don’t end up like the Blackhawks and trading away young assets because of cap issues.
by Tom Stivali on Jun 29, 2010 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
LA
I think LA is the most realistic opportunity for Kovalchuk with the Devils second behind them. Yes, LA would have a whole lot of money tied to few players, but next year with Handzus and Justin Williams coming off the books, there is $7.5M there. With their depth at prospect, I do believe they can replace higher-paid players handily with entry-level contracts and not necessarily minimum salary veterans. Doughty already counts $3.475, so presumably he doubles his salary, accounting for another $3.5M. I think Simmonds and Johnson would be covered with the $4M from Handzus retiring or moving on.
I think Martin is a bigger priority to sign than Kovy. While I would love to have his skill, ability and presence on our team, I think it hurts us in too many other areas.
The problem is theentry level deals. When you have top tier prospects they come at a premium and are much more than league minimum players. As an example Brayden Schenn is a $3.1MM cap hit. If you add him and Kovalchuk to the LA roster in 11-12 that is around $40MM dedicated to 11 players. Then you have the UFAs and RFAs of their own they have to extend this year plus the hefty raise Doughty and other RFAs get. They can sign Kovy but they will be in salary cap hell in a few years if they do.
Schenn
I agree, cannot understand why Schenn would be given such a large entry-level contract ($3.140M?!?!). But as I read it, only Schenn and Hickey would receive over $1M. So, yes, the Kings could be in salary cap hell down the road if they sign Kovalchuk, but what viable team wouldnt be in signing him?
That’s just the going rate for a player drafted as high as Schenn was (5th overall). Top-10 picks are particularly expensive, but guys drafted in the latter parts of the first round drop down to less than 1 million per year.
Bad planning if you ask me. Although I do not know what the salary structure has to be, where are the incentives/bonuses for players that have never played an NHL game?
Schenn’s base salary isn’t nearly so high — only $900k. His cap number jumps because he’s got roughly $2 million/season in performance bonuses, which brings the total hit to $3 million plus.
That isn’t to say he’s earned the bonuses, yet…. but that the Kings are obliged to have cap room set aside to cover them. I don’t know the specifics, but I’d wager that those bonuses are considered “likely to be achieved” or some other such benchmark, and thus have to be accounted for in this year’s cap if he’s on this year’s team. Bonuses that aren’t considered as likely to be obtained likely can be deferred onto next season’s cap if they are actually achieved.
Hey all, Kings fan here. Thought I’d jump in.
Skuba is right that the Kings are always mentioned “because they have cap space,” but Quisp’s post illustrates that we’re not even in the green zone. I honestly don’t think most people in the media consider the long-term issues when they start imagining where he’ll go. The only thing making me breathe easy right now is that our GM does.
Lombardi revealed something very interesting about Schenn’s contract in a long interview here (honestly, I don’t believe he knows how to express his thoughts in less than 50,000 words, but that’s part of what’s great about him).
To summarize: he said that Schenn made a deliberate choice to maximize his chances of making the team early by agreeing to a contract that wouldn’t affect the cap as much as a typical top prospect’s might. We think that means DL is pretty certain that all or most of Schenn’s bonuses aren’t likely to be reached.
Schenn’s certainly not the only issue, though. When fans ask about Kovy, Lombardi keeps saying things like: well, you have to think about what going out and getting Kovy would cost us down the road, too. There are other young players we’d like to sign, like Doughty, Simmonds, etc. So I’d say he’s lukewarm on Kovalchuk…or maybe I should say, only interested in Kovy for the right price. (Aren’t we all.)
In Dinglebarn We Trust
Thanks for the insight. I wonder what the Kings’ upper limit of a tolerable cap hit for Kovalchuk would be? Seems like they’re in a similar boat as the Devils for 2011, with RFA superstars to re-sign (Parise and Doughty), defensemen to give raises to (Greene and Jack Johnson), but they also have to worry about Simmonds among a host of other RFAs. I think the Devils’ upper limit is around 8.0 million, and I think LA will be within 500K of that, but for the Devils a bit of a wild card is what Paul Martin will command on the market. That could make or break the Devils’ ability to have an offer close to LA’s.
Seems like they’re in a similar boat as the Devils
Yeah, I agree. Higher than 8 million…oh, ouch. I’d hope they’d walk away. But it depends on how much they are willing to sacrifice in terms of young potential vs. star talent today — I can’t say I know that for certain. Dean makes cautious statements all the time, but they say Leiweke is high on getting a big name. Is that even true? Will that have any affect on Dean at all? Are we all going crazy? Is it July 1st yet?
Quisp over at JFTC is really the best person to ask, though. Smart as all get-out, and he spends a lot of time pondering cap issues.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
Thanks for jumping in
It is nice to have a Kings fan jump in the conversation to illuminate on some of the salary issues facing the team.
No prob! I love discussions like this.
I forgot to add that I’d look out for St. Louis, too. Everyone would have difficulties fitting Kovy in, but still I think the Blues could make a move. They — like the Kings — have enough young prospects piled up that they can afford to deal some (though both teams should be so lucky as to have post-Cup issues). Eventually every rebuilding team gets to a point where they have to stop hoarding. The questions are when, and how to maximize it.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
St. Louis is definitely a possibility lurking in the weeds. I still believe Colorado is a very good possibility as well — traditionally they’ve spent a lot of money, and I think he’d fit very well with Duchene, O’Reilly, and the other kids. Plus, Kovy is young enough that he could be part of that core for a long time going forward.
I think what St Louis really needs is a center. David Backes and Keith Tkachuk were used as centers, but they both really would have been more appropriately used as wingers. They could also use some upgrades at D. They have a lot of prospects but are still pretty far from contending. And I don’t know if St Louis as a city, while a lovely city (though I’ve never been) is the major metro area that Kovy may or may not be looking for. I just don’t see how St Louis could top LA in a head-to-head offer.
I think Colorado is still in the thick of rebuilding. I think they wildly outplayed expectations and will take a step back this year. Also, they only have five players signed beyond this season and don’t have a particularly well-defined “core” in place beyond Stastny, Duchene, and O’Reilly.
All good points. Plus, signals from Blues management have been mixed. But they were in the hunt in February, and they do have a dang lot of flexibility — far more than our two teams right now. Colorado might be a longshot but they’ve got that, too.
I agree that LA or New Jersey would likely be more attractive to Kovalchuk, but I don’t really know what he values, or even with whom we’ll be competing. That’s what’s so maddening, at this point. You can’t even rule out an “OMG that GM should be locked in a padded room” sneak attack from teams that don’t make any sense. (Guys like Sather have lowered my expectations for GM intelligence quite a bit. Heh.)
Well, it was fun talking to you all. I hope I don’t go crazy by the end of tomorrow. Cheers.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
I hope Martin stays with the Devils.
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by LoNJDTechnology on Jun 29, 2010 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Not looking to be contrary but
Isn’t the above similar to what the Blackhawks now face this year, but who cares, they won a cup. they also knew they would have a huge cap issue, and they are dealing with it. Couldn’t LA just do the same thing.
by Devilssection21fan on Jun 29, 2010 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, the Kings will have to win a cup first. Imagine what fans/media would be saying in Chicago if they had to firesale off some young assets without winning a cup.
No kidding. The Hawks even had a close call in the first round.
I think the best plan is to have a deep team for at least 3-4 years if you want a shot at even one Cup. In terms of Dean’s original five-year plan, we’re still at least a year out, I believe. We have the means to make a big trade if the free agency market doesn’t work out. As much as some in the fanbase might howl, I think we’ll be okay with or without Kovy.
The Hawks and Sharks seem like they are on track to get a bit weaker, what with their already-manifest cap issues (the Sharks less so). That said, it’s still a brutal conference.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
The Hawks were knocked out in the western conference finals by Detroit a year ago and were big players in the FA market 2 yrs ago when they got Campbell and Huet.
This past season, the Kings made the playoffs for the first time since 2002 and were bounced out in the 1st round by the Canucks. The Kings haven’t reached the level that Chicago was at last season, and adding Kovalchuk alone wouldn’t elevate the Kings to a point where they would be “favorites” to win the Cup. They might be contenders, but in a tough conference with the Hawks, Sharks, Canucks, and Red Wings, their chances of winning it all this year is not great. It wouldn’t be a smart move with the issues they will have in the next few offseasons. It also wouldn’t be a smart move for the Devils if keeping Kovalchuk hinders our ability to keep Parise and Greene.
Rolston may have a NTC but he would prob waive it since he isnt get much action and prob wants to play more, talk to him and see what teams he might want to do to (wild again?)
Ryan Potulny is on UFA, he could be a great 3line center who can also score, or call up some minors
sign kovalchuk, im sure he might ask for less since he had a great time with Elias and why would you want to sign with a playoff team every year?
Martin- 5mill MAX, if he wants more let him go (although i would love to have a scoring Dman)
i would love to see Brent burns here, hes like a Shae Weber type player
hmm
Rolston+2nd (or 3rd) for Burns+5th?
PS3: J-CAMPS
Unicorn Deal
What part of “no stupid or unrealistic trade options like…any proposal that involves a Devil with a no trade or no movement clause” did you not understand?
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Jun 29, 2010 7:47 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well, it is John’s blog. And he specifically asked that we not discuss trades that involve Unicorn deals. It’s kinda like walking into a store nude and getting pist when the owner yells at you and enforces his “No Naked Fat Guy” policy.
(walks away grumbling about no naked fat guy policies being hurtful and unnecessary. It’s glandular dammit!)
i would love to re-sign martin and then get some one like Carlo Colaiacovo or Zbynek Michalek to add to the defensive core.but not signing a defensemen(not including martin) wouldnt be so bad. we have 3 or 4 guys who could step up in my mind (salmela, corrente, eckford, gelinas, young, and urbom.)
on the offensive side i would love manny malhotra. if we dont sign kovi, then i think we need a winger who can score maybe stempniak or frolov. and i would like to see tedenby getting into the action
I really hope that we do not sign Kovy and that he signs somewhere quickly so we can stop talking about him. Then I hope Martin is brought back and we bring in another defensemen. I think we also need a 3rd and 4th line center. Pelley couldn’t play 4th line center last year so I don’t think he’ll be able to do it this year. That would be it. Pretty simple.
I agree. I hope we sign Martin before 7/1 because if he gets out there I am afraid the Sharks might pounce on him to offset the loss of Rob Blake.
Sharks don’t really have the cap space to sign Paul Martin for what he’ll command on the open market and fill out the rest of their roster. Even with Nabokov walking away, re-signing all the guys they did in the last few days ate up a lot of cap room.
Good point, at a second look of their roster it looks tight salary wise, especially if they want to acquire a goalie.
The only possibility would be if they signed him to a long term front loaded deal with a low cap hit, which judging by what they did with Marleau I don’t think they will go that route.
by Tom Stivali on Jun 29, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
$9 Million
The only significant RFA they have is Setoguchi, what do we think, high 2’s? I would bet no more than $2.75M, leaving approximately $6 Million for 5 players including a starting goalie, if they do not decide to give Greiss the reins. Highly unlikely they could go after Martin, but who knows, I wouldnt count them out because of their needs.
Setoguchi had a cap hit of $1.2 million last season, per CapGeek. Coming off two pretty good seasons, he’s going to get paid — I’d project something in the range of $3 million, actually, rather than $2 million.
The Sharks already have six defensemen under contract, so I imagine they’re not in the market for a top-end D-man. I imagine with their cap situation and their roster as presently constituted, they have other needs. A veteran goalie to share time with Greiss would seem to be at the top of the list.
Not saying that they couldn’t move a contract to open up some space, but I don’t see any reason to expect that to happen.
I think the Sharks would be interested in Martin, but even if Setoguchi only gets 2.5, they only have about 6.5 to sign one Dman, three forwards, and a goalie. They couldn’t offer Martin more than 3 million and even that would be a stretch.
If they had some intention to make a run at Martin, I think they would not have re-signed Niclas Wallin at 2.5 mil for one year. To make room for Martin, they would have to trade Doug Murray, who they signed to a 4-year contract just last year.
My concern with trying to sign Kovalchuk is for the future.
I can absolutely see the benefits with the increased attendance and offensive upside, etc., however there were reports that some of the other players (and fans, including myself) were a little upset by the freedom he was allowed to freelance.
But that aside, I’m considering just the economics of it. What follows is my own attempt to reconcile the team’s salary cap after the 10-11 season with Kovalchuk in the lineup. There are some major assumptions made (not the least of which is that by signing him, we cannot afford Martin), and so take it all with a grain of salt and feel free to disagree with any and all of them, but this is my personal take:
After the 10-11 season there are 8 players still under contract: Elias ($6m), Rolston ($5.062m), Zajac ($3.887m), Zubrus ($3.4m), Leblond ($0.525m), White ($3m), Salvador ($2.9m) and Marty ($5.2m).
That is a total of $29.974m for those 8 players, with some obviously large holes to fill. Assuming another 5% increase in the salary cap from its current $59.4m, we’ve got $62.37m to play with.
Now, the first thing after next season that is going to be on everyone’s mind is signing Parise. There are going to be options of course and we won’t get into contract length (as it’s not relevant) or front-loaded deals (as there’s no precedent from Lou), but for argument’s sake I’m assuming a cap hit of $6m to keep his services. That bumps us to $35.974m for 9 players.
The next assumption (which actually should come first) is that Clarkson will re-sign with the team shortly. For arguments sake, I’m going with a $2.5m cap hit to retain him. $38.474m for 10 players.
Another issue whose importance can’t be understated, especially if Martin leaves, is that Andy Greene will be a UFA after the 10-11 season. Currently, he’s a steal with his $737,500 contract, but if he has another season even remotely as good as his last season and proves that it wasn’t just a flash in the pan, he could be due a nice raise. For arguments sake, I’m going with $3m to re-sign him and assuming he won’t want to test the market. It’s a big assumption because it’s based on how he performs this upcoming year. If he has as good or an even better year, that figure could jump by a million or more. If he regresses a bit, that might be a generous figure. Regardless, that’s $41.474m toward the cap with 11 players signed.
Additionally, Fraser and Pelley are RFAs this year and have been qualified, so I’m assuming their salaries will be $0.6m and $0.75 respectively. Zharkov, Salmela and Corrente will be RFAs after 10-11, and I’m going with $1m, $0.75 and $1m respectively to keep them. That’s $45.574m for 16 players.
Some other assumptions (and hopes) are that Josefson ($0.9m) and Urbom ($0.87m) will be ready to make the leap to the big club. So, all told that is $47.344m for 18 players and the lines would look something like this:
Parise – Zajac – Zubrus
Elias – Josefson – Zharkov
Rolston – ?? – Clarkson
Leblond – Pelley – ??
Greene – Salvador
White – Corrente
Fraser – Urbom
Salmela
Brodeur
????
We’ve got $15.026m to fill in a third line Center, a fourth line RW and a back-up goalie, assuming anyone is comfortable with those defensive pairings (I know I’m not). So, let’s say we sign Kovalchuk and let’s say it’s for $8m. That leaves us with $7.026m, but a logjam at LW. We could kick Elias (or Kovalchuk, depending on who is more comfortable with it) over to second line RW and bump Zharkov down to the fourth line, and that gives us two pretty good scoring lines, a decent checking line in need of a Center, and a potentially fun and effective energy line.
The problem is the defense. Assuming a decent 3rd line Center could be had for $2.5m and a back-up goalie could be found for $0.5m (a big assumption, I know), that leaves us with $4.026m in room, if we wanted to go right up to the cap and leave ourselves with no wiggle room, to add to that woeful defense.
It’s just not enough.
It’s always possible that Lou might be able to find someone willing to take on Salvador’s $2.9m since it’d only be for one year, which would help salary cap wise, but it would also weaken the defense further. However, it’s also a possibility that Greene wants to test the market and we’re short another defenseman, and not even close to having a true number one.
In conclusion, I believe that signing Kovalchuk for anything near his market value will force unacceptable sacrifices in a defensive squad that was already in need of help and will only be getting weaker with the departure of Paul Martin.
I do admit a certain ignorance when it comes to most of the team’s prospects. It could be possible that Gelinas is ready to come up by that time, though 3 rookies on the defense anchored by White, Greene and the sophomore Fraser scares the bejeebus out of me.
It could be that Henrique and/or Palmieri are ready by then and we could save a little bit with the forwards, but the ones we’d want to get rid of we can’t so really it’d just be swapping rookies for rookies and it wouldn’t affect the bottom line much at all, if at all.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
Im with you on this elesias, seems all plausible for me. I do think we could retain Kovalchuk for less money if we up the term and commit to him an offense he would deem high quality. Rolston’s contract is an absolute killer, more than any other. I know we are stuck with him AND his ugly contract, but the more I read about it and put scenarios together, the more it upsets me that he makes $5+ but only contributes 3rd-line (ok, maybe 2nd line at times) numbers.
Martin
But Martin is the priority, and if that means allowing Kovalchuk to walk, let him walk.
Re-sign Martin (hopefully not more than $5M), sign (fingers crossed) Manny Malhotra ($1.2), re-up Clarkson in the neighborhood of $2.5M, sign Jordan Leopold ($1.75M last year), Id love to sign Kurtis Foster, but Tampa Bay would be ludicrous not to re-sign him. Maybe we could get Brett Lebda to come on over from Detroit to replace Mike Mottau. He brought in $650K last season, or one of Jay McKee or Christoph Schubert, depending on style of play deemed necessary.
Awesome post. Wow, that defense is horrific. The Devils need to take the market value of Kovy and use that plus a million or two to bolster the defense.
Do you think Josefson is ready for a second line role next year or would it be better to try to get Arnott on the cheap for one more year? I would think that he would be elevated to a third line center at best next year and only because it is written that he is very defensively responsible. Also, I would think there would not be a reason to re-sign Salmela with Eckford and possibly Taormina filling the same kind of 3rd pairing puck mover role.
Interesting that you had Clarkson on the third line but Zharkov on the second line. I would think it would be reversed.
As I said, I am pretty ignorant when it comes to players in the system. My assumption of Josefson being ready in a year is based partly on things I’ve read elsewhere by, presumably, people who know better than I, and the lack of depth at his position on the team.
Depending on Arnott’s performance this year and his salary demands, that may be the better option. I went with Josefson to help illustrate that even skimping by relying on kids coming up with tiny contracts still leaves us in a jam.
You are probably right about Salmela, but salary wise, the names aren’t important. Eckford actually makes a little more (RFA who made $1m last year) than Salmela, but the end results is a few $100k, which in the grand scheme of these estimates, isn’t that big a deal. I do worry though that relying too heavily on kids being ready will not only decimate Albany, but will cause problems if and when the Devils need to call in the reserves. Salmela may be worth keeping around just for depth.
As to Clarkson vs. Zharkov on the 2nd line, I don’t imagine those lines are set in stone. My thought process was that on a line with Josefson and Elias, Zharkovs speed would fit better… but perhaps you’re right that what that line would need would be Clarkson’s grit. Regardless, if Kovalchuk were to be signed it would be moot.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
I have the same worry about the kids on defense as well.
The Devils need two defensemen in FA. Whether that is Martin + Leopold or even a guy like Brett Clark, the defense needs help.
by Tom Stivali on Jun 29, 2010 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Your logic is no good here sir. This is were we magically get rid of contracts we don’t like so we can sign whoever we want.
by C.J.Richey121 on Jun 29, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
This isn’t for this year, but the following, when Langenbrunner, Pandolfo and Peters’ contracts have expired. The assumption is that none of them will be re-signed.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
In conclusion, I believe that signing Kovalchuk for anything near his market value will force unacceptable sacrifices in a defensive squad that was already in need of help and will only be getting weaker with the departure of Paul Martin.
Are we watching the same Devils team here? “Defensive help”? Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t the Devils just win the Jennings Trophy with Paul Martin hurt much of last season? And didn’t the Devils just score a meager 1.8 goals per game in a playoff series?
Seems to me that a team that finished 1st in goals against, but in the bottom third in goals for needs more help on offense than on defense. Just saying.
Yes, they did. And they did an admirable job in the absence of Martin while he was out with injury.
And then they got exposed in the playoffs.
The team has struggled for the past few years against aggressively forechecking teams, and their GF in the playoffs is directly related to their inability to get the puck out of their own defensive zone.
The team needs help offensively as well… I don’t think anyone is disputing that, but this is the Devils. They’re built from the blue line out. With a blue line that consists of White, Salvador, Greene, Salmela and two call ups, do you honestly expect to go anywhere?
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
I think it was less “exposed” in the playoffs than a really, really bad matchup. I think they could have (and would have) beaten Boston or Montreal in the first round, but they got Philadelphia who we know plays the Devils really well. NJ simply doesn’t have answers for the Flyers’ snarl and offensive depth. For that matter, Paul Martin’s return doesn’t address either one of them — the offensive from the blue line will still be rather pedestrian, and he doesn’t have the snarl to stand up to a physical style of play.
With a blue line that consists of White, Salvador, Greene, Salmela and two call ups, do you honestly expect to go anywhere?
What I know is that the current batch of defenders hasn’t taken us anywhere, and they’ve been largely intact for the last two years. Something on this team has to change, because I’m skeptical that just tinkering around the edges (re-signing Martin, bringing up a few rookies, signing some second-tier free agents to fill out the depth on the roster) will result in anything different. Kovalchuk and the offense he provides changes the complexion of this team. I’m not saying that Kovalchuk is the sum total of the answer, but I think retaining him is part of it. If it costs us Paul Martin, so be it.
When you don’t have a lot of offense, you put a lot of pressure on your defense to be perfect or nearly perfect every night. Considering Brodeur’s age, and the likelihood that he’ll start to decline at least a little bit (admittedly from a lofty peak), I don’t think you want to count on that kind of defensive performance on a regular basis, and you certainly can’t depend on it for four rounds of playoffs.
They were a bad match-up because their style of play is the paper to our defenses rock. Keep in mind we’ve still got to play them 6 times this year, and teams that also aggressively forcheck like Carolina and the Islanders regularly give us fits.
The way to resolve that particular issue, or at least minimalize it, is to have defenders that can get and/or carry the puck out of the zone. I’m not saying Paul Martin is going to be, by himself, the difference, but he is one of two guys that we currently have that can do either of those things.
What I know is that the current batch of defenders hasn’t taken us anywhere, and they’ve been largely intact for the last two years. Something on this team has to change,
So re-signing Kovalchuk and letting the best defenseman walk is the answer? Regardless of your feelings about those defensemen (the ones you were not so long ago defending as Jennings trophy winners), they are severely reduced by not having Paul Martin.
If there were a larger pool of free agents to choose from and/or some really promising prospects who were close to being able to make the jump and be impact players, I would have no problems letting Martin walk… but we don’t have either of those luxuries.
When you don’t have a lot of offense, you put a lot of pressure on your defense to be perfect or nearly perfect every night.
And on the flip side, when you don’t have a lot of defense, you put a lot of pressure on your offense to be perfect or nearly perfect every night.
Take a White, Salvador, Greene, Salmela top four and you need Parise and Kovalchuk to carry this team, and this team isn’t built to be the Capitals or the Penguins.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
The way I see it, resources to improve this club (or maintain it) are very limited. If I have a choice between spending what is available on an offensively gifted forward, or on a defender, I’m going to take the forward in this case.
The Devils won the Jennings last year. No matter how much Martin may or may not have meant to that prize in one’s opinion, the Devils defense is clearly in good shape. At the same time, the Devils offense was woeful — 19th in the league, if I’m counting correctly.
We saw the Devils play much of last year without Paul Martin. Like it or not, they can get along without him, and it isn’t like he’s an elite defenseman. He’s a very good defenseman, and the best one currently on the Devils, but it isn’t like he is irreplacable. On the other hand, Kovalchuk is a transcendent talent, and there isn’t anyone available who could replace him, whether from within or from another team.
I see the Devils needing offense more than defense right now. I see the Devils needing to do something to change the chemistry and core of the team, because what we’ve had the last few years is clearly lacking something. I see a d-man who is very good, as opposed to a forward who is spectacular. I’m in the minority, but I’d rather spend $8-9 million on Kovalchuk than $5 million on Paul Martin. I’ll take my chances with the defense that has proven itself very adept in spite of not having any household names beyond the goaltender.
Also, I believe there are more defensemen available on the market as salary dumps or reclamation projects than there are skilled forwards. I think there was even an article on this blog about it a few days ago.
As for the comparisons to the Penguins and Capitals, both of them stockpiled their talent by sucking for several years and accumulating several (very) high draft picks. Given the Devils haven’t picked inside the Top 15 for many, many moons, that avenue of team-building isn’t exactly available to them.
If I have a choice between spending what is available on an offensively gifted forward, or on a defender, I’m going to take the forward in this case.
That’s the problem. It isn’t choosing between A or B. It’s choosing between A or B,C,D and E.
The Devils won the Jennings last year. No matter how much Martin may or may not have meant to that prize in one’s opinion, the Devils defense is clearly in good shape.
The Devils defense, without Martin, is White, Salvador, Greene and Salmela. You can honestly look at that and say that that is “in good shape”? Perhaps part of the reason the offense struggled last year (among others) is because the forwards were forced to compensate for the defenses deficiencies. We all know the two way abilities of Parise, Zajac and Elias. It’s less of a stretch to imagine their back-checking had more to do with the team winning the Jennings than the defensive acumen of that group plus Mottau and Fraser.
If you’re looking to change the chemistry and make up of the team, adding one guy isn’t going to do that. The $8m you’d give him goes a long way toward adding to some defensive upgrades. Perhaps even some offensively talented defensemen, to kill two birds with one stone, so to speak.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not touting the greatness of Paul Martin. If there were better options, I’d let him walk, but the simple fact is that he is the best defenseman we have and the market for defensemen is not only weak. Not only that, but building through free agency is an almost sure way to overpay for someone’s services.
And, the comparison to the Penguins or Capitals had nothing to do with their talent or where they acquired it, but rather how they are built… namely: offense first with defense a necessary evil. To me, keeping Kovalchuk and relying on that defense to prove itself very adept at anything but letting anyone with some legs skate around them is forcing the team to play like the Penguins or Capitals… which they aren’t built to do.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
I’d rather have a Devils defense with Martin than without, especially with what is there beyond him. However, I’d still choose Kovalchuk over Martin…. but that is just me. After the last three years, there is clearly something wrong with this club, as evidenced by the repeated post-season disappointments. It is far too easy to blame results on the team getting trapped in bad matchups (Flyers this year, Rangers in ‘08). After three years of banging our heads againts the wall, I think there has to be a change — I don’t see how continuing to do the same thing going forward is going to provide any better results than what we’ve already seen. To me, re-signing Martin, Clarkson, and then filling in the third and fourth lines and the third defense pairing with low-budget free agents and rookies is “doing the same thing”. The faces will be different, but you’ll have a lot of the same guys in the same roles as we had the last few years. That might be fine for a young team that hasn’t reached its potential, but this is a veteran team where many of the key players are on the downside of their career.
Elesias, I think your points are valid. They are well argued, and you’re passionate about them. I just don’t agree. Can we agree to disagree on this one?
As far as Pittsburgh and Washington goes…. yes, their style is more offensively driven with defense taking a backseat. Washington hasn’t had a whole lot of success with that system — only the one playoff series win in the last three years, and a couple of mind-boggling losses where they blew substantial leads. Pittsburgh, however, seems to have done quite well with that style — they’ve won eight playoff series (and one Cup) the last three years, while the Devils have won five playoff games. I’d take that, and I suspect most everyone else would too.
Are the Devils built for that? Certainly they are not. They could move in that direction if they brought on a few players with a more offensive mindset. The Devils defensive style is very successful, but it doesn’t play as well in the post-lockout NHL as it did in the cluch-and-grab days.
It isn’t choosing between A or B. It’s choosing between A or B,C,D and E.
I would love to shore up our defense by not only re-signing Martin, but also adding another puck-mover who isn’t a defensive liability. Obviously not signing Kovalchuk gives us the cap space to do that. So if you re-sign only Martin and let Kovalchuk walk, who exactly are you going to spend that cap space on? The options out there in free agency other than Martin aren’t that appealing to me. There might be someone better available on the trading block, but I’m not sure I want to give up the prospects and picks it would take to acquire said puck-moving defenseman.
Why not at least try to get both Martin and Kovalchuk under the cap? I wouldn’t choose Kovalchuk over Martin, but I would present an offer to both of them that would allow them to stay. And if Martin walks, what then? Do you not think it’s better to have Kovalchuk and no Martin than neither of them at all?
Personally, I’m not a big fan of trying to fill in large holes through free agency, but the situation is what it is.
As to who, I’m not entirely sure… it would depend on what guys are costing on the open market, but some of the names that have been tossed around are Corvo, Shaone Morrisonn and Leopold.
I’m not against trying to get them both on the team… or in signing Kovalchuk at all… except that without some additional salary moves, it leaves the team in a very undesirable position now and at least into next season.
Do you not think it’s better to have Kovalchuk and no Martin than neither of them at all?
Per my speculative look at the upcoming season in the above post with just that situation in mind, no. Not without additional moves.
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Building a better puck moving defense will help the offense as they won’t have to back check as often when the defense turns the puck over in the defensive zone. The Jennings award is a team award and to me it was won more as a result of our responsible forwards then the defensive corp.
by Tom Stivali on Jun 29, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Devil's Advocate
I find myself taking the other side here, against the repeated opinions that Martin needs to be re-signed and Kovalchuk allowed to walk. The Devils have failed time and again with the formula and players currently in place, so why would you keep going back to that same plan?
Insanity is defined by doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting a different outcome.
Unless he is signed in the next 36 hours, Paul Martin is going to command #1 defenseman money on the market. And while Paul Martin is a very nice player to have, he certainly is not a #1 defenseman, nor should the Devils commit that kind of money to him for the long haul. The one thing the Devils have done exceedingly well in the last twenty years is develop defenders from within their own system, plugging them into the big club and letting them grow into roles. They’ve done this even when they haven’t drafted well, and I see no reason why they won’t continue to do so. We saw in the last year that Andy Greene is capable of playing more minutes and a larger role…. maybe not the immense minutes he shouldered with Martin and Oduya injured (and then Oduya traded), but he can certainly give you 20 minutes a night and run the power play. A top pairing of Greene and Salvador won’t blow anyone away, and it won’t keep coaches up at night worrying, but it will get the job done.
One of the problems we saw in the playoffs (and during much of the regular season) is that the Devils had trouble scoring. Nine goals in five playoff games does not cut it…. and yet many of you want to cut ties with one of the few offensive weapons on the roster. Ilya Kovalchuk is going to command a lot of money on the market, quite possibly in the $9 million/season range…. and he’s the one player on the market worthy of those dollars. He was a point-per-game producer with the Devils, and while a lot of those were assists, he was still instrumental in providing offense (and excitement) on a regular basis. If he reverts towards his career averages, his shooting percentage will rise next season, and he’ll score more goals for you. Ilya Kovalchuk is also just now in his prime years (age 27), so there’s reason to believe he can produce at the kind of level he has for several more years. He also had a hand in six of the nine goals the Devils had in the playoffs. If he is allowed to walk away, who is he replaced with? Josefson and Tedenby are promising prospects, but that’s all they are at the moment. There’s no way to tell if they’ll even make the club come September, let alone contribute…. and if you expect one or the other to step in and be a Top 6 forward this year, you’re putting a ton of pressure on them and just might break them in the process under the weight of expectation.
Now, there’s certainly a valid argument that the Devils are too top heavy at forward where contracts are concerned…. that counting Pandolfo and Clarkson, you might already have nine forwards making $2 million or more. A reasonable concern, but you can bury Pandolfo if he doesn’t have a role on the club…. and you can find a taker for Dainius Zubrus’ deal if you look around. It isn’t as big a stumbling block as you think…. and it isn’t like the Devils don’t have the cap room to sign Clarkson and Kovalchuk and still fill out the rest of the roster — they do have roughly $14 million to fill out the roster at this point even with Pandolfo on it.
There’s also the valid question about contracts going forward, especially with Parise and Greene up for restricted free agency after next season. My answer to that is that you are going to see several contracts expire at the same time, and that gives you room. Langenbrunner ($2.8 mil) and Arnott ($4.5 mil) are UFAs, and I don’t know that either would be back. Parise’s ($3.125 mil) and Greene’s ($737.5k) cap numbers also come available for use — likely to be put back into those deals with more on top of that. (I don’t count Pandolfo, because I will assume he’s buried this year and therefore the number comes off the cap this year based on that) If everyone is so certain the prospects can step in and contribute, you could give Parise and Greene raises with the Arnott and Langenbrunner dollars, plug in some rookies (at low wages) in the holes, and keep going forward. Just with those four cap numbers put together, you could do Parise at $8 million/season and Greene at $3 million/season for the long term, and only be down the million dollars or so it takes to plug in two minimum salaries.
Two years out, the Devils would be in even better shape. White, Salvador, and Rolston all have their deals expire at that point, and I doubt the three of them would command nearly as many cap dollars as they do now even if you brought all three back. Marty’s deal also expires…. and while I suspect he’ll sign a fresh deal, does anyone really think it would be for more than the $5.2 million he makes now?
Sign Kovalchuk. Let Martin walk. The Devils can manage going forward just fine without any hysteria. Perhaps the shake-up of the team (by keeping the newcomer and letting the homegrown veteran walk) and the paradigm change will do the team some good.
Perhaps you are right. But for me, I cannot believe that our Defensive corps can function well enough in the Playoffs to justify keeping Kovalchuk and his extraordinary abilities.
White, Salvador, Greene, Salmela (signed) as your Top 4 does not equate, to me, with Playoff success.
Perhaps the defense corps sans Martin can’t get the job done come playoff time. I’m not sold that Martin’s loss would be such a catastrophic hit, given the Devils history of replacing D-men as they walk and the goalie playing behind them. We’re not talking the Cup-winning corps of Stevens/Niedermeyer/Rafalski et al, we’re talking a rather non-descript group led by a borderline Olympian/All-Star who is about to get paid #1 defenseman money when he clearly is not a #1 defenseman.
Taking that into consideration, has the defense corps with Martin done any better the last three seasons? Is there any reason to believe that keeping Martin over Kovalchuk is going to change the team’s fortunes next spring?
I’m not sold that Martin’s loss would be such a catastrophic hit, given the Devils history of replacing D-men as they walk and the goalie playing behind them.
They’ve had little success with that formula of late, and as you said earlier, continuing to do the same thing over and over and expecting different results is the definition of crazy.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
But this is a mythical history. Rafalski was a known quantity upon Stevens and Niedermayer going their ways. The Devils knew what he was capable of after playing laong side top players. Before the lockout, Paul Martin made his case for top 4 minutes (and got them, as he averaged 20:04 back in 03-04), so the Devils knew what he would become even before Rafalski left. Who on the current team can possibly develop into a player to lead the group? Hoping that Andy Greene can repeat what he did for the first few months of last season is the closest I can say to that and even that’s too much of a risk to take.
Honestly, read the posts I’ve made about Martin. Statistically, there isn’t a replacement defenseman who has done what Martin does when he comes on the ice. Very few defensemen in the league has that much of a positive impact. You may not think he’s a #1 but based on the numbers, he definitely is. And that’s magnified given the relative weakness of the FA market this summer.
I don’t understand the decision to sign a player for a whole season just to avoid the Devils being outcoached, outhustled, and incredibly unfortunate in the playoffs. I agree the goal for 10-11 has to be to get past the first round, but that shouldn’t be the basis for dropping big dollars on either player, as their contract will undoubtedly effect most of the other moves the Devils this summer and in future summers.
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by John Fischer on Jun 29, 2010 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
You keep talking about “plugging the holes.” Personally, I would prefer that there be no holes to be plugged. I vote keep Martin.
by njdalltheway on Jun 29, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
i don’t know if “keeping the newcomer and letting the homegrown veteran walk” is the best precedent to set as an organization.
Loyalty is wonderful. I want a club that is loyal to its own. But I don’t want to place loyalty to a particular player over what is best for the team. In a world of free agency and salary caps, you can’t afford to place a premium on sentimentality when the object is to win within the bounds of limited resources.
Martin
I just think it is sad that this is our #1 defenceman, on all three cup winners this guy would have a tough time cracking our top four defencemen.
It is going to be tough to let a forty goal scorer a year leave when scoring will still be a problem for us. If it is possible without ruining the team you have to try really try to sign Kovalchuk. It would be nice to keep a player who has never been out of the top ten goal scorers every year since he joined the league.
how many teams around the league have a quartet approaching anything near stevens, niedermayer, rafalski, and daneyko? no one does. such is the reality in the cap era, just because we don’t have the same caliber of D-corps as our past championship teams have had doesn’t mean the current corps is totally hopeless. We need to adjust our expectations of defensemen in this era – this is turning into a golden age for forwards
I don’t think they are hopeless, I cannot fault the job they did last year, I am just saying that in total the NHL, like any sport now wants to see scoring so teams and the players we see have been adjusted to do that. Call me a homer but I love seeing a strong defensive system but those days are gone in many ways mainly with rule changes. (better or worse)
Players like Parise, Zajac, and Kovalchuk are the players teams will always want over a defenseman that is not going to score, and rush up the ice, but have a role like Daneyko, who was reliable, not flashy, those role players are becoming extinct. I think by playing like we did last year shows that we still are one of the teams to beat, but some things have to change to keep that up.
I think with players like Greene show a lot of promise, I don’t think he was a fluke and even in my opinion Fraiser will be a strong stay at home defenceman in the future. And maybe our first draft pick this year will turn out like we hope.
Modano
…as a replacement for Niedermayer, if he were to cut his salary form last year in half. Is there a better Checking line Center available in the game today? Nieuwy has confirmed that Dallas will not be offering a contract to Modano.
i’ll pass on modano. if he were such a great checking line center why would the stars let the face of their franchise walk to another team? nieuwendyk said he didn’t want to put modano in a fourth-line role, because that’s where he’d belong on the stars. if he can’t make the third line on the stars, he won’t be able to make the third line on the devils. and if he’s gonna be on the fourth line, i’d rather give the kids a shot and let them pump some energy into the team.
No. Modano’s older and I highly doubt he may be as effective. I’d honestly have Niedermayer return instead of bringing in Modano.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Jun 29, 2010 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions
A couple names that have recently hit the waiver wire sound pretty intriguing. Defenseman Ville Koistinen; $1.4M for next season, he’d cost the Devils .7M (I believe) and Jonathan Cheechoo, slated to make $3.5M. I see the Sens bought out Alfredsson as well, but I don’t think going down that road would be worthwhile, he’s scheduled to make $7M next year still, plus 2 more, albeit front-loaded, seasons after that and he’s 37.
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I see the Sens bought out Alfredsson as well
Whoa. Wait, what? Where?!
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
Alfredsson was bought out several years ago, and signed a fresh deal. Ottawa is on the hook for both related salary cap hits.
That being said, Alfredsson is not an option. He’s got a contract similar to Rolston in terms of dollars, length, and the 35+ thing. Nor, for that matter, is Ottawa interested in moving him. He’s their veteran leader while they try and figure out their rebuild.
Also, Erik Christensen, an RFA Center the Rags did not qualify. He made $800k last year and, for about the same price, might fit in on the 3rd or 4th line.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
Koistenen might be an interesting option as a depth/3rd pairing defenseman, but only if you wait for re-entry waivers to claim him. If you claim him as a reaction to his being placed on waivers now, you’re on the hook for the entire cap hit. Personally, I don’t consider him worth a $1.4 million hit.
I could see Cheechoo worth a 2-way deal and training camp invite once Ottawa buys him out. If it doesn’t cost the team much, it might be worthwhile to see if he could catch lightning in a bottle again, the way he did when he played with Joe Thornton on his wing.
uhhhh this thread is confusing me. first of all, players that get bought out become free agents – the team that signs them isn’t on the hook for half of their pre-buyout salary. alfredsson has not been bought out and i doubt he’d be available for a trade and the last thing the devils need is an aging, expensive winger.
the players that have been placed on waivers and are expected to be bought out:
Nathan Oystrick, Ana
Todd Fedoruk TB
Donald Brashear NYR
Patrick Rissmiller NYR
Aaron Voros NYR
Jon Cheechoo Ott
Petteri Nokelainen Phx
James Vandermeer Phx
Ville Koistinen Fla
Ales Kotalik Cgy
I would likely pass on all of these guys.
Christensen is a possibility for the fourth line. Are the Rags preparing to make a run at a big free agent? With Staal and Girardi left to sign, I can’t imagine they have the cap space to do so, even with these buyouts.
A lot of people here are saying Martin is the Devils priority, but in fact he is not, at least not according to the Devils front office. The Devils havent even opened serious discussions with Martin whereas they have had constant conversations with Kovalchuck for at least a few weeks. Lou and Devils I think rightly viewed Kovy and not Martin as the priority precisely because this team simply could not score enough goals espesially in the playoffs when it counted. On the other hand, Martin is a very good defenseman but our D performed pretty well without him most of the year last year. Apparently the Devils did not trade the rights to talk to Kovy up to the last minute so they still view him as the priority.
Martin is a very good defenseman but our D performed pretty well without him most of the year last year.
I hate this argument. By this logic, that the team performed pretty well without Marty the year before means we’d be okay with Clemmensen in net?
For the record, Lou has repeatedly said that re-signing Martin is a priority.
From the article:
Lamoriello has repeatedly said that re-signing Martin, 29, is a priority.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
First, I think Clemmensen was better suited to lead us through the playoffs last year. He was in form basically the whole season and Marty never really got into his grove when he came back from injury.
Second, the comparison to from starting goalie to one of six defenseman is a bit of a stretch.
Third, the fact remains that the D did perform well in Martin’s absense and that improving offensive, not defense, is and should be the Devils number one priority.
About Lou’s statements on Martin’s priority thats all good and fine; he didnt open actualy conversations with him until perhaps this past weekend at the draft. He has been talking to Kovy for three weeks, clearly indicative of who he thought he needed to handle first, and clearly willing to let Martin wait until at July 1st, thereby taking on the risk of loosing him.
The comparison is perfectly relevant in the respect that you’re able to write off the effects of one person’s extended absence as negligible due to roughly equivalent team results.
The fact remains that the team performed well in Martin’s absence. The rest of your statement is your opinion, and a simplistic one at that. Why not improve both at the same time?
Rather than putting too many eggs in one basket, wouldn’t it be more prudent to utilize that money to shore up the defense even further, while adding some offense to it?
To Lou’s statements: You’re suffering from thisorthatitis. Lou has said on multiple occasions and in multiple ways that signing Martin was a top priority. That doesn’t mean that he doesn’t feel the same way about Kovalchuk. It can be both, even though we fans don’t see the whole picture as he does and don’t see how it’s financially possible.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
A Quibble:
First, I think Clemmensen was better suited to lead us through the playoffs last year. He was in form basically the whole season and Marty never really got into his grove when he came back from injury.
You can’t be serious, Brodeur came back and posted shutouts immediately. Martin Brodeur definitely got into his groove for the playoffs in 08-09.
About Lou’s statements on Martin’s priority thats all good and fine; he didnt open actualy conversations with him until perhaps this past weekend at the draft. He has been talking to Kovy for three weeks, clearly indicative of who he thought he needed to handle first, and clearly willing to let Martin wait until at July 1st, thereby taking on the risk of loosing him.
I have to agree with the other two responses but would love to offer this possibility: maybe Martin wasn’t open to conversations until later, waiting for a new head coach for example. Of course, we’ll never know until someone spills the inner secrets of the Devils – which will happen sometime between never and ever.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Jun 30, 2010 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
That’s odd because everything the Devils have said makes it seem like Paul Martin is the current priority. Where did you read that they have had constant conversations with Kovy for weeks? I would like to see that link.
THE plan....as i see it
First, the things that MUST be done:
Re-sign Martin (expecting about 5.5 mil) and Clarkson (2 mil) and a league-minimum backup goalie (probably Danis again)
If Martin doesn’t re-sign, then we are waist-deep in poo. Rather than reflexively making a stupid decision to overpay Volchenkov or Hamhuis (whose defensive skills, while admirable, won’t help the team’s glaring need for a more mobile, puck-moving D corps), we should make a quiet free agent signing of a lower-level defenseman that can move the puck and wait for next offseason’s crop of free agent defensemen. Also, if Martin doesn’t re-sign I would offer Kovy as much as 8.5 million per year to stay with the Devils.
If Martin is re-signed, then:
Plan A – Re-sign Kovalchuk (7.5 mil) to a 3-year deal, trade Zubrus for whatever prospects/draft picks we can get, trade/waive Pandolfo, send Peters to the minors, keep Zharkov and PL3 with the big club, give Josefson a shot to make the team as third-line center, leaving a tight 3.9 million to sign a 4th-line center (e.g. McAmmond) and fill out the roster with 3 young defensemen (out of the group of Salmela, Fraser, Corrente, Eckford, Taormina). The most we could give Kovalchuk is 8.0 million – any more than that and we won’t be able to fill out our roster. In 2011, we would probably have to let Arnott and Langenbrunner go (unless they were willing to take ridiculous pay cuts) to make 7.3 million in space for giving Parise and Greene raises. Another 5% increase in the cap might allow us to keep Langenbrunner.
Plan B – If Kovalchuk doesn’t want to re-sign, we keep the status quo. We can afford to keep Zubrus and I guess Pando (though Pando might get waived anyway) for this season. I would consider putting Josefson in the AHL and signing a 3rd line center (e.g. Malhotra). In 2011, we would be able to keep Langenbrunner and go after a free-agent defenseman. If Josefson is ready for the 2nd line, we can get a 3rd line center with some offensive pop. If he is not ready, we could re-sign Arnott or go for a similar-priced alternative for 2nd-line center. If cap space is needed in 2011 for the free agent defenseman, then we could trade Zubrus and/or get rid of Rolston through re-entry waivers to make space at that time.
Now that we’ve acquired Arnott, I’m not at all interested in any of the free agents out there besides Martin and Kovalchuk. None of them will provide good value.
In summary,
Plan A = keep Martin, Kovalchuk, and Clarkson, sign a cheap 4th line center, trade Zubrus, waive Pando and Peters, fill in the rest of the holes with the kids
Plan B = keep Martin and Clarkson, Kovalchuk leaves, sign Malhotra (or another 3rd line center)
Plan C = keep Kovalchuk and Clarkson, Martin leaves, sign a lower-level puck-moving Dman and go for offense, offense, offense.
Plan D = keep Clarkson, but Martin and Kovalchuk leave, cry and move on.
Plan A possible lineup (58.56 million cap hit if Pelley, Eckford, Fraser sign qualifying offers; McAmmond and Danis sign for 500K again; Martin = 5.5, Kovy = 7.5, Clarkson = 2.0):
Parise – Zajac – Langs; Kovy – Arnott – Elias; Rolston – Josefson – Clarkson; Pelley – McAmmond – Zharkov (PL3)
Martin – Greene – White – Salvador – Eckford – Corrente (Fraser)
Brodeur – Danis
Let Kovalchuk sign elsewhere.
I say let kOVALCHUK sign elsewhere. I love the way he attracts more attendance to the rock but honestly do you feel like he fits the Devils style of play??? With the money we will save from letting him go we can resign Martin and perhaps pick up another player. Also it will help in resigning Parise…
Donald Vasquez
No matter what the Devils do this summer, resigning Parise next year is simple; just don’t bring back Arnott. If they can stay under the cap this year with Arnott, they’ll be able to do so next year, giving Parise a healthy raise, without Arnott.
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PHEW!!!
That was a lot of reading. This is what I took from it. Oh, thanks to Niesy for insight from the Kings perspective.
Im surprised the line of demarcation is so clear when it comes to Kovalchuk. Personally I think re-signing him would not be in our best interest.
Im happy with acasser for strenuously sticking up for his opinion.
Signing Martin has been clearly stated by Lou as being the Priority to re-sign.
I dont think any of the ‘waived’ players offer the Devils anything better than any of the players we can ‘re-sign’ (McAmmond, Niedermayer, Martin, Danis, Eckford, Clarkson).
The Defensive corps needs to be upgraded, not just Martin, but a low 2nd or high 3rd pairing defenseman.
Most of all, after reading thru the posts of NJ Devils fans in relation to other SBN blogs out there, here seems to be the most intelligent and articulate of places to offer opinions.
I just don't think we're going to upgrade our blueline
I think Martin will walk. Lou gave him the “general” speech after the season. That’s the same speech Gomez, Rafalski, Gionta and Madden heard, basically stating that he respects them all and will “try” to get something done…if they’re not signed by August. Anyway, Martin will either be a King, Red Wing or STL Blue.
I think Lou also had a master plan. That plan was to let Gionta and Madden walk last year and acquire Kovalchuk at the deadline. Not many people remember it, but a few years ago when Kovalchuk signed his eventual deal with Atlanta that now expires, there were very brief talks of bringing him here, but it didn’t fit the system at all, which is now changing. If Lou wants Kovalchuk, he will sign him. it’s that simple, either that or we’ll see him playing in Russia.
This is a sign of the times. Offense wins championships. I know Chicago was a good defensive team, but they had explosiveness, then Pittsburgh, when they won the Cup, they were mid-pack in goals allowed (or goals against), Detroit was a strong defensive team, but you get the point, no Stanley Cup champion, to my knowledge, has ranked lower than 13th I believe in the league since before the lockout. Now, also look at the goaltenders who have been in Stanley Cup finals lately, you have Leighton/Boucher, which was a mess of sorts, and Niemi who was exposed often for the Hawks. Fleury is okay, but he’s not Terry Sawchuk, neither is Chris Osgood. I guess what I’m saying is goaltending and defense is not what franchises build on nowadays, it’s [young] scoring forwards, unless you’re the Wings.
Parise is going to be around for a long time (hopefully), so will Zajac, that’s our building blocks. It would be nice to have a true #1 defenseman who can play 30 minutes if necessary (i.e. the Prongers, the Keith’s, the Gonchars and Lidstrom’s), and who knows, maybe Tedenby-Josefson-Henrique all have tremendous success in the NHL, but Kovalchuk is a type of player that doesn’t come around the block all the time, and if the Devils are about to turn this franchise into an up-tempo franchise and sell out 41 times per year, then this is an opportunity, because obviously a future HOF goaltender isn’t selling the place out every night.
That’s my opinion, you don’t have to like it, but it’s there. Kovalchuk will sign with NJ.
Yankees in baseball, Giants in football and Devils in hockey. It's that simple. I have no off-season.
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