And Now For Something Completely Different (TOPHS) on Free Agent Centers
John has provided a large number of posts focusing on the different aspects of the available Free Agent Centers. This is sort of a corollary to his face-off discussion found here. Face-off wins help the team *get* the puck. But how about *keeping* the puck? The NFL tracks turnover ratios. That stat may exist somewhere for the NHL, but I've never seen it. I wanted to see what the FA Centers looked like with respect to their turnover ratios. For comparison's sake, I included Kovalchuk and Clarkson in the mix, since the Devils would obviously be interested in signing either of them. Details after the jump. Oh yeah, viewing wide will probably work better.
Unfortunately, part of the problem with looking at turnover ratios is that the players who handle the puck a lot would tend to turn over the puck a lot. One of the stats nhl.com tracks is total number of shifts. Now, I know players' shift lengths are quite varied, but I felt normalizing their turnover ratios per shift (well, actually one hundred shifts to make the numbers seem more reasonable) would be reasonable.
So what I did was rank the free agent centers that John compared based on their Takeaways minus their number of Giveaways, then divided that by their total number of shifts and multiplied it all by 100. Viola, TurnOvers Per Hundred Shifts (TOPHS). What this stat really measures though is their net turnover ratio for every hundred shifts, i.e every 100 shifts the player would have netted X number of turnovers. Positive numbers mean the player would have taken the puck away this many more times than given it away. Negative numbers mean the player would have given the puck away this many more times than taken it away. Finally, for some comparison against thee best and worst, I included the top 10 forwards and bottom ten. Players had to have played in 20 games to be counted. I figured since it was normalized based on number of shifts, Time On Ice limits wouldn't matter. So without further ado:
|
Rank |
Player |
Team |
GP |
GvA |
TkA |
TAR |
TO/G |
FOW |
FOL |
Tot |
FO% |
TOI/G |
Shifts |
TO/100S |
|
1 |
NYI |
63 |
16 |
57 |
41 |
0.651 |
5 |
12 |
17 |
29.4 |
14:03 |
1,217 |
3.369 |
|
|
2 |
WSH |
69 |
9 |
39 |
30 |
0.435 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
50 |
12:07 |
1,010 |
2.970 |
|
|
3 |
ATL |
80 |
12 |
51 |
39 |
0.488 |
512 |
494 |
1006 |
50.9 |
12:30 |
1,340 |
2.910 |
|
|
4 |
DET |
80 |
73 |
132 |
59 |
0.738 |
590 |
480 |
1070 |
55.1 |
20:20 |
2,056 |
2.870 |
|
|
5 |
NYR |
57 |
3 |
25 |
22 |
0.386 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
66.7 |
11:10 |
829 |
2.654 |
|
|
6 |
ATL |
79 |
22 |
61 |
39 |
0.494 |
10 |
10 |
20 |
50 |
14:47 |
1,473 |
2.648 |
|
|
7 |
VAN |
82 |
28 |
83 |
55 |
0.671 |
772 |
629 |
1401 |
55.1 |
19:37 |
2,078 |
2.647 |
|
|
8 |
ATL |
79 |
15 |
51 |
36 |
0.456 |
68 |
86 |
154 |
44.2 |
15:45 |
1,374 |
2.620 |
|
|
9 |
VAN |
20 |
3 |
13 |
10 |
0.5 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
50 |
13:54 |
399 |
2.506 |
|
|
10 |
OTT |
75 |
19 |
50 |
31 |
0.413 |
240 |
298 |
538 |
44.6 |
12:53 |
1,237 |
2.506 |
|
|
18 |
ATL |
61 |
13 |
35 |
22 |
0.361 |
254 |
177 |
431 |
58.9 |
12:12 |
997 |
2.207 |
|
|
51 |
TOR |
60 |
14 |
31 |
17 |
0.283 |
225 |
281 |
506 |
44.5 |
12:38 |
1,014 |
1.677 |
|
|
52 |
NYI |
81 |
31 |
61 |
30 |
0.37 |
536 |
504 |
1040 |
51.5 |
15:45 |
1,794 |
1.672 |
|
|
53 |
FLA, MTL |
69 |
12 |
36 |
24 |
0.348 |
365 |
298 |
663 |
55 |
14:50 |
1,445 |
1.661 |
|
|
73 |
NYR |
75 |
20 |
44 |
24 |
0.32 |
327 |
312 |
639 |
51.2 |
20:06 |
1,819 |
1.319 |
|
|
100 |
CHI |
79 |
25 |
43 |
18 |
0.228 |
613 |
543 |
1156 |
53 |
15:24 |
1,798 |
1.001 |
|
|
101 |
WSH |
74 |
32 |
45 |
13 |
0.176 |
501 |
477 |
978 |
51.2 |
15:44 |
1,315 |
0.989 |
|
|
102 |
MIN, WSH |
77 |
23 |
40 |
17 |
0.221 |
521 |
403 |
924 |
56.4 |
15:30 |
1,729 |
0.983 |
|
|
103 |
CAR, OTT |
81 |
35 |
54 |
19 |
0.235 |
572 |
549 |
1121 |
51 |
18:45 |
1,946 |
0.976 |
|
|
130 |
SJS |
79 |
17 |
30 |
13 |
0.165 |
504 |
328 |
832 |
60.6 |
13:03 |
1,595 |
0.815 |
|
|
208 |
MTL |
69 |
13 |
18 |
5 |
0.072 |
327 |
334 |
661 |
49.5 |
13:33 |
1,274 |
0.392 |
|
|
209 |
TBL, LAK |
71 |
21 |
27 |
6 |
0.085 |
294 |
276 |
570 |
51.6 |
14:31 |
1,557 |
0.385 |
|
|
235 |
NJD |
71 |
19 |
22 |
3 |
0.042 |
478 |
467 |
945 |
50.6 |
16:48 |
1,710 |
0.175 |
|
|
246 |
SJS |
71 |
28 |
30 |
2 |
0.028 |
415 |
249 |
664 |
62.5 |
15:37 |
1,626 |
0.123 |
|
|
254 |
NJD |
62 |
31 |
32 |
1 |
0.016 |
253 |
303 |
556 |
45.5 |
12:51 |
1,182 |
0.085 |
|
|
264 |
VAN |
75 |
30 |
30 |
0 |
0 |
390 |
335 |
725 |
53.8 |
13:51 |
1,395 |
0.000 |
|
|
331 |
CGY |
63 |
32 |
26 |
-6 |
-0.1 |
453 |
426 |
879 |
51.5 |
13:33 |
1,377 |
-0.436 |
|
|
344 |
MTL |
82 |
58 |
46 |
-12 |
-0.15 |
791 |
824 |
1615 |
49 |
19:57 |
2,226 |
-0.539 |
|
|
350 |
ANA |
71 |
42 |
31 |
-11 |
-0.15 |
571 |
539 |
1110 |
51.4 |
18:34 |
1,797 |
-0.612 |
|
|
355 |
NJD |
46 |
17 |
11 |
-6 |
-0.13 |
6 |
14 |
20 |
30 |
14:26 |
876 |
-0.685 |
|
|
361 |
SJS |
82 |
69 |
53 |
-16 |
-0.2 |
316 |
299 |
615 |
51.4 |
21:12 |
2,225 |
-0.719 |
|
|
386 |
PHX |
78 |
36 |
20 |
-16 |
-0.21 |
452 |
458 |
910 |
49.7 |
17:56 |
1,663 |
-0.962 |
|
|
409 |
PHX |
64 |
24 |
9 |
-15 |
-0.23 |
375 |
359 |
734 |
51.1 |
15:04 |
1,214 |
-1.236 |
|
|
414 |
CGY, NYR |
82 |
63 |
39 |
-24 |
-0.29 |
480 |
493 |
973 |
49.3 |
17:51 |
1,799 |
-1.334 |
|
|
433 |
ANA |
54 |
39 |
17 |
-22 |
-0.41 |
62 |
69 |
131 |
47.3 |
17:19 |
1,156 |
-1.903 |
|
|
434 |
EDM, FLA |
22 |
3 |
1 |
-2 |
-0.09 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2:52 |
105 |
-1.905 |
|
|
435 |
NJD |
29 |
5 |
0 |
-5 |
-0.17 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
50 |
5:11 |
254 |
-1.969 |
|
|
436 |
EDM |
76 |
44 |
14 |
-30 |
-0.39 |
7 |
10 |
17 |
41.2 |
14:24 |
1,462 |
-2.052 |
|
|
437 |
LAK |
61 |
10 |
0 |
-10 |
-0.16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4:53 |
453 |
-2.208 |
|
|
438 |
NJD |
27 |
6 |
0 |
-6 |
-0.22 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
50 |
5:31 |
254 |
-2.362 |
|
|
439 |
OTT |
77 |
71 |
34 |
-37 |
-0.48 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
33.3 |
18:09 |
1,487 |
-2.488 |
|
|
440 |
ATL, NJD |
76 |
73 |
34 |
-39 |
-0.51 |
7 |
23 |
30 |
23.3 |
22:02 |
1,563 |
-2.495 |
|
|
441 |
NSH |
51 |
34 |
13 |
-21 |
-0.41 |
2 |
6 |
8 |
25 |
10:50 |
745 |
-2.819 |
|
|
442 |
COL |
43 |
7 |
0 |
-7 |
-0.16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3:03 |
217 |
-3.226 |
I included face-off data in the table to see that data side-by-side. A couple "no, duhs" in the data, like Pavel Datsyuk being near the top and Andrew Peters near the bottom. But also a couple surprises. Even based on an equal hundred shifts, the top TOI players are *mostly* near the bottom of the list. Vinny Prospal is the top ranked high TOI center. Richard Park the highest second level and Jim Slater the top third tier center. Not to mention Ilya Kovalchuk near the bottom of the list (and he IS dead last in un-normalized overall turnover ratio, TAR in my table). My data in Excel had similar colored highlights as John's, but for whatever reason I couldn't copy that info in here. Does this change anybody's perspective on any player(s)? I'll be looking at the most commonly mentioned Free Agent Defensemen in the next day or so. Enjoy.
All FanPosts and FanShots are the respective work of the author and not representative of the writers or other users of In Lou We Trust.
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Very cool...
I’ve had a little man-crush on Matt Lombardi from all of John’s articles and this does change my opinion on him slightly at a -0.962 TOPHS. It’s a good stat and calculation yet there one little problem: Different arenas tend to differ on what’s a takeaway and what’s a giveaway. It’s the 2 stats that have the most human influence IMO (maybe scoring changes too?). Either way though, your stats are for a whole season, so it’s pretty accurate. Players with a better ranking most likely handle the puck better than guys at the bottom (sorry Kovy).
It’s the 2 stats that have the most human influence IMO (maybe scoring changes too?).
Add “Hits” to that list.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
Well in Kovy’s defense he takes chances he is a high risk high reward player. Ive seen game tape of alot of the other guys and they are much more conservative with the puck. That don’t mean I wouldn’t like to see Kovy be a little more careful. But he is who he is.
by KingHellfire on Jun 3, 2010 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
There's no denying that
He does work hard when he has the puck. Some people go a little too far and call it being “fancy”. He was one of the hardest working Devils if not the hardest during the playoffs. But like you said, he’s a high risk player. He gave the puck away a good amount of times at the point during the PP, which would count as a giveaway. Did he skate his heart out to get back and play defense. You betcha. But this stat doesn’t realize that aspect.
To give you a sense of other “superstars” in the league, here’s their respected TOPHS.
Crosby 1.79
Ovechkin 0.70
Malkin -0.36
H. Sedin -0.1
Parise -1.13
Kovie at -2.45. So maybe this stat judges “risk” for a player. Do the Devils want a high risk player long term?
by Matthew Ventolo on Jun 4, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I like your idea about risk, but some corrections – Crosby is 1.79, and the rest of your +/ are reversed as well, Ovie -.70, Malkin +.36, Sedin +.1 and I have Parise at +.93 (112th overall), so I’m not sure about your number…
Other Devils of note:
Pandolfo, 90th, 1.12
Zajac, 98th, 1.04
Bergfors, 147th, .69
Rolston, 157th, .64
Zubrus, 309, -.26
Langenbrunner, 311th, -.29
Clarkson, 355th, -.68
Elias, 422nd, -1.58
Go Jets
Go Devils
haha..whoops
I just copy and pasted the stats from NHL to excel and did the A cells minus B (rookie mistake) and did them as quickly as possible. Sorry. Thanks for the corrections. What’s good is they are all still in that +2.0 to -2.0 interval just switched..haha.
by Matthew Ventolo on Jun 4, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I love the effort
It’s a good stat and calculation yet there one little problem: Different arenas tend to differ on what’s a takeaway and what’s a giveaway. It’s the 2 stats that have the most human influence IMO (maybe scoring changes too?).
It’s worse than that. There’s a possibility there’s a rink bias for even shots. Tom Awad discussed this last December (and makes a case that Brodeur is actually BETTER than what the stats show) Yes, shots. I thought recording shots was straight forward – either the goalie makes a save, it goes in, or it’s not a shot on net. Yet here’s evidence contrary to that.
Yes, I know that completely undercuts some of the stats I’ve used; but unfortunately, the official numbers are what they are. Again, I love the effort, the problem doesn’t lie with you – it’s the base number of the league that’s the problem. Yet, until someone can come up with a provable way to account for rink bias, the stats I use and this stat you formed aren’t going to be end-all be-all stats. And that sucks because the general method is a quick way to count RTSS stats.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Jun 4, 2010 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions
true,
But as njdNYG’cuse pointed out, that variance is lessened over the course of the season, because, unbalanced schedule in mind, everybody plays everywhere and hopefully, at least within one arena over the course of the season, there is some consistency.
Go Jets
Go Devils
Not entirely true…
Every team plays every team during a season, but the majority of out of conference teams are only played once. Playing 3 times in a divisional rivals’ buildings, 2 times in the rest of the conferences’ buildings, and once in 50% of the opposing conferences’ buildings (which, additionally, will probably be a different list than the other teams from your own division – making comparisons ineffective) could, depending on just how bad the bias is, add up significantly.
It is lessened over the course of the season, and if the teams alternate playing home and away with the out of conference teams, then every two seasons should give an even more accurate picture… but regardless, arena bias is prevalent and even with an “averaging out” effect, the numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt when using them to calculate statistics in which a .01 difference between players means something.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)






















