It's almost July 1st!  And yet we have to wait another 12 hrs for free agency to even begin and probably another few hours after that to hear any news.

I'm sitting here at home with a pile of work to do and all that's going through my head are pessimistic thoughts.

I peg the Devils' chances of getting Paul Martin back at $5.5 mil or below at 5%.  Their chances of getting him back at more than 5.5 (my cutoff for overpaying) maybe 15%.  The probability he goes somewhere else?  A not-too-optimistic 80%.

I actually like the Devils' chances of signing Kovalchuk much better than their chances of signing Martin, mostly because there are a limited number of teams that have both the cap space and potential to win.  I give the Devils a 30% shot, and the chances that his cap hit provides good value (I would say he provides good value up to and including 8.0 million) about 75%.

The odds that the Devils aren't able to sign either one, and are left reflexively overpaying for the scraps?  Too high for my liking.  Wayyy too high.

Am I going crazy?