2010 Devils Offseason: A List of Possible Head Coaches for New Jersey Devils for 2010-11
While looking up who would be reasonable trade targets for the center position; I just remembered that the New Jersey Devils are without a head coach. Jacques Lemaire retired at the end of April, and the position is still vacant. I've discussed Paul Martin, Ilya Kovalchuk, defensemen, and centers at length in the past month, but very little about who will be the man behind the bench. That's a rather large oversight.
Part of the problem is how does one evaluate a coach properly? There isn't much of a compendium on coaching styles available. Moreover, who's to say that a coach will apply what he's done on prior teams in New Jersey? Jacques Lemaire had the Minnesota Wild play ultra-defensive hockey; but last season, the Devils weren't sitting back nearly as much as the critics thought he would (or did, depending on whether said critics actually followed the Devils).
Basically it's based on reputation, based out of monster piles of observation and confirmation bias. Basis for analysis is not clear at all.
What is clear is the goal for whoever the next head coach of the New Jersey Devils in 2010-11: get past the first round of the playoffs. No, the head coach won't be hired to please a certain player or a fanbase. The goal is to get results. Yes, I understand that the goal for every season is the Stanley Cup; but that requires getting past the first round. Moreover, given the complaints from all over the fanbase (and probably from ownership) about early exits in the playoffs, that only emphasizes the importance of winning that first series. To that end, I think that has to be the main goal. Let's worry about a Stanley Cup if the Devils get that far.
I think it's fair to say whoever will get the job will be under pressure to succeed immediately. That said, after the jump, I've put together a list of possibilities with gut-reactions (read: not detailed) thoughts on each.
Michel Therrien (Lifetime NHL Head Coaching Record: 212-182-22-46)
Apparently, per this FanPost (and a lot of quick reaction online), William DePaoli of Inside Pittsburgh Sports has tweeted that Therrian may be the man for New Jersey. DePaoli's focus has been on Pittsburgh, so it's not unreasonable to think he has sources. That said, he's not going to be well-received as he was fired from the Pittsburgh Penguins for Dan Bylsma in February 2009. That team went on to win the Stanley Cup that season, making it look like removing Therrien was a big factor in their success.
That said, I wouldn't immediately cry foul on a signing. Therrien does have plenty of NHL experience and did coach the 07-08 Penguins to the Stanley Cup Finals. He's been to the summit, as it were, fairly recently; and if that's desirable, then he fits that more than most (if not all) available head coaches. If he wore out his welcome, then it appears that it took 4 years to occur. My understanding is that he's a disciplinarian. Who knows how the locker room will react given what came out after Lemaire's retirement (players' side, Lemaire's response, both by Rich Chere); but perhaps the team needs one.
If you would hate this signing, then perhaps you should be heartened that DePaoli said the Devils offered Theirren a contract back on May 27 and nothing has happened since. Even though the Devils could presumably sign him then and be done with the whole matter. Moreover, there hasn't any word locally about it other than Tom Gulitti saying he's a candidate.
Above all else, take this rumor with a grain of salt. For now, at least.
John MacLean (Lifetime AHL Head Coaching Record: 39-31-10)
MacLean being promoted to head coach of the New Jersey Devils would be seen as "deserved move" by some. MacLean has been an assistant since the 2002-2003 season and was assigned to be the head coach of the Lowell Devils in the AHL last summer. MacLean became the first head coach of the Devils' AHL affiliate to take the team to the playoffs since John Cunniff did it in the 1999-2000 season. One can't say he hasn't paid his dues, so to speak.
On top of all of that, MacLean has been a Devils player from 1982 through 1998. If anybody understands the organization from both perspectives, it's him. The move to make him a head coach in Lowell was seen to be a test to see how he can command an entire team. That he took the Lowell squad to a winning record and a postseason berth has to be seen as a success. MacLean himself said it was useful, per this post by Rich Chere back in May. He was part of the coaching staff in New Jersey, so most of the team should respect him as a coach. Plus, he'd have more insight into some of the current Devils and how to handle them than an outside candidate.
That said, given the expectations of the team and where they are now, is it wise to promote MacLean now? He's had only one season as a head coach in his entire career. Should something go awry, like several injuries or a terrible slump, how will he respond? Moreover, because he's been with the organization, would he favor the players more or would he take command himself?
I'm not saying MacLean is an awful choice, not at all. He is a deserved candidate, but the answers to these questions are critical are to whether he's the right man now or in a few seasons.
Mike Haviland (Lifetime AHL Coaching Record: 137-77-26; Lifetime ECHL Coaching Record: 172-81-35)
Mike Haviland is probably a reason why there hasn't been much news about the head coaching search. Haviland is currently an assistant with the Chicago Blackhawks, who's currently fighting the good fight in the Stanley Cup Finals right now (Game 5 is tonight). Of course, Lou is notoriously secretive about his process and that may be more of a reason. Still, if Lou wants him, then he's got to wait a little bit.
On the surface, there's a lot to like about Haviland. He was born in New Jersey and was drafted in the 1990 supplemental draft by New Jersey. He got his start in coaching in pro hockey with the Trenton Titans of the East Coast Hockey League as an assistant. After two seasons, he become the head coach of the Atlantic City Boardwalk Bullies, went to two one Kelly Cup Final, one fourth round loss in Kelly Cup playoffs, and won one in three seasons before taking the Trenton Titans to the Kelly Cup glory in 2005. Since then, Haviland jumped up to the AHL for three seasons before Chicago moved him up to an assistant. In his entire minor-pro coaching career, 7 seasons, his teams always had winning records and made the playoffs.
Needless to say, he's got more experience and success than MacLean as a head coach. I wish I had more insight into what it was he actually did in Chicago. Still, the big question I have is whether would he be even interested in leaving Chicago to go to New Jersey? Surely if/when Joel Quenneville gets fired, he'd be in a prime position as a replacement if he just sticks around. I get a sense that he's only in the discussion because he's from NJ and coached there; that doesn't necessarily mean he wants to jump to the Devils organization that will demand immediate success.
Ken Hitchcock (Lifetime NHL Head Coaching Record: 534-350-88-78)
The seemingly-abrasive Hitchcock has been around as a head coach since 1994-95. If the biggest factor in hiring a head coach is experience, then Hitchcock cannot be ignored. He's been behind the bench for over 1,000 games, the sixteenth ever head coach to hit that mark. Plus, he did win the Stanley Cup in 1999 with Dallas and was behind the bench in losing to the Devils in the Stanley Cup Finals in 2000.
Of course, I can't help but think that experience is the only reason why he's in the discussion. Sure, there would be no question on how he would handle a difficult situation. However, there's not a lot of recent success outside of him being an assistant on Canada's 2010 Olympic team to belie that he'd be the right choice right now. Hiring Hitchcock would be seen as a re-tread signing at worst and a "safe" pick at best solely on the fact he's seen it all n the NHL. Whether or not that's what the Devils need is another question entirely.
Kirk Muller (No Head Coaching Experience)
One name that may come up is former New Jersey Devil and current Montreal Canadiens assistant Kirk Muller. Muller has been with the Montreal organization for four seasons as an assistant, and he's been given more and more responsibilities on the team in this past season. Darren Eliot of SI had a good column highlighting why Muller is a "rising star" among coaches.
I'm a little worried that he'll get praise for Montreal's playoff performance which was largely of result of Jaroslav Halak playing at a ridiuclous level and some of their forwards shooting at totally unsustainable shooting percentages. In other words, parts of the team got hot and not necessarily the result of Muller, Jacques Martin, or anyone else.
Cynicism aside, I have to question whether Lou would go take Muller, who hasn't been a head coach at any professional level, to what will be a pressure-filled situation. At least John MacLean has been a head coach at some level. I personally think it's unlikely that Lou will go outside of the organization and pick someone who has only been an assistant.
Your Take
I'm sure there are a few other names the Devils could consider, I just wanted bring my thoughts on a few of the more common names you may read. The only one of note I didn't mention was Guy Boucher, since he could take the Blue Jackets job per the Columbus Dispatch.
Overall, it doesn't appear that there's a perfect fit for the position. Whoever the Devils hire will have to prove themselves in a way, either to show that the can handle the position at the NHL level (MacLean, Haviland) or to justify why they've been in the league after being unceremoniously dumped by their last team (Therrien, Hitchcock). How much risk will Lou be willing to take? He's hired veterans and NHL-coaching-newbies alike for the head coaching position in recent seasons. As usual, I trust Lou to make the best decision available.
Let's discuss this in the comments: who should also be considered? What metric should we judge a coach? If we are unhappy at, say, the possibility of hiring of Therrien, then why are we unhappy? Should we be? What else about these coaches and others should we be aware of (e.g. tactics, tendencies, etc.)? Please leave your answers and thoughts in the comments.
Unrelated aside: If you're thinking about submitting an audition post, then you have until midnight tonight. I won't say who entered (and neither will those who did) but I currently have 7 entries. I'll accept more; but I will not accept or read late entries. So if you're not going to be on-time, then consider just making a FanPost. This way we can read and (hopefully) appreciate what you have worked on.
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If it was possible, i’d like to see how they performed in special teams and team statistics (i.e. goals for, goals against) on either a year-to-year basis or the career averages. It’s obviously won’t show much about the coach’s demeanor, but it might actually show how they historically fared over their careers
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by Kevin Sellathamby on Jun 6, 2010 7:58 PM EDT reply actions
New Coach
I got three syllables for ya’: Car-bon-neau.
I like Carbs. I hope he is the coach as I loved him in Montreal. Lou does like the Montreal connections.. We’ll see.
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
by RolliePollieKovy on Jun 6, 2010 8:11 PM EDT reply actions
If theTherrien rumors are just that, I feel it's now or never for MacLean
He’ll get an NHL offer somewhere in the next few years and take it. His bond with the Devils is so strong and he may not ever leave, but you always need to look after numero uno first. If he gets an opportunity to coach in the NHL before the Devils offer him a job, he should take it.
He may not be fully ready, but I feel some of the players wants and need stability (Marty certainly does). A young coach, that knows the players (all levels), the system, and management for years is the answer.
therrien was terrible in pittsburgh. the fenwick pre-therrien and post-therrien is a very real difference. plus therrien coached some brutally bad games against new jersey in 08-09. therrien is well thought of (or at least not violently dismissed as ever coaching in the NHL again) because jose theodore and ma fleury had the season/playoffs of a lifetime with him.
How was Therrien terrible in Pittsburgh?
In the 2006-07 season, he coached the Pens to one of the greatest single-season improvements in NHL history, going 47-24-11 for 105 points, good for a fifth place finish in the Eastern Conference, while the year before in 2005-06, they went a miserable 22-46-14 for 58 points, good for dead last in the NHL. And that awful post-lockout circuit had a lot to do with the lackluster performance on the part of the players. He also coached a team that went to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final after a 47-27-8 regular season worth 102 points and became the first team that wasn’t the Devils or Flyers to win the Atlantic Division since 1994.
I mean, I’m not stoked with the idea of bring Therrien to Jersey, but I will certainly be objective about it and give the guy a chance, especially considering this New Jersey Devils team, pending any offseason moves, has a roster capable of going far in the postseason if coached correctly. And like I said before, Therrien is no stranger to going deep in the playoffs.
New Jersey Devils and New York Yankees: Thrivin' on the Hate Game since 1982 and 1903, respectively.
by pacmanghostx on Jun 6, 2010 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
the penguins got massively outshot while therrien was their coach. they were outshot in 06-07, they were outshot in 07-08, they were outshot in the 07-08 playoffs despite having hossa, malkin, and crosby, and they were outshot in 08-09 until shero finally realized that his coach was terrible. when therrien was no longer their coach, the penguins went from being outshot to outshooting teams. this despite the fact that teams who trail (as therrien’s teams often did) tend to outshoot their opponent, whereas teams that are ahead tend to get outshot.
i know that this year’s montreal team will delude people into thinking that you can win in the NHL while being terribly outshot, but it’s not a way to win. you need to have the puck in the opponent’s end, not your own. michael therrien clearly doesn’t believe this. he’s an unsuitable coach.
The Penguins were massively outshot with Therrien?
2005-06: 28.0 SF/G, 33.2 SA/G
2006-07: 28.9 SF/G, 30.9 SA/G
2007-08: 27.7 SF/G, 30.8 SA/G
2008-09: 29.0 SF/G, 30.3 SA/G
The only season there that’s actually pretty bad in terms of shots for/against per game is 2005-06, and as I mentioned above this is when the team as a whole was garbage and before a good chunk of their current defensive core began play i.e. Goligoski, Letang, etc…
Your point, while certainly valid to an extent, is debatable.
New Jersey Devils and New York Yankees: Thrivin' on the Hate Game since 1982 and 1903, respectively.
by pacmanghostx on Jun 7, 2010 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
yes, i consider that being massively outshot. try to find teams that are much worse than that in terms of shots for/shots against. then try to see if those teams, like pittsburgh, drew more power plays than they did. then see where those teams were in the standings.
shots on goal aren’t the only thing that’s important, but it’s very hard to win in the playoffs when you are being outshot at even strength like therrien’s teams tended to be.
Valid point. I’m perfectly willing to admit that I can’t really argue your latter argument.
I mean, it could be an idea of opinion, as I don’t see being outshot by three or fewer shots per game as a huge deficit. The quality of the goaltender can also have a lot to do with whether or not it’s a notable issue.
And like you said, SOG’s aren’t the only important factor by any stretch of the imagination… As a matter of fact, three of the four Pittsburgh teams (And that includes the horrifically bad 05-06 team.) coached by Therrien finished in the Top 6 in the NHL in Power Play Percentage, while the 08-09 team that saw Therrien walk about 2/3 into the season was 20th with a 17.2 PP%. Actually, this past season, the first full season with Bylsma, had the Penguins finishing with the same 17.2 percent and 19th in the League. Why do I bring this up? Well, the Devils’ power play was certainly one of the aspects of this team that had a large number of fans tearing their hair out after January.
New Jersey Devils and New York Yankees: Thrivin' on the Hate Game since 1982 and 1903, respectively.
torn beween maclean and carbonneau...
i think that if they take maclean, it wont be a quick fix but he will be with the team for a while. carbonneau knows what he is doing and could be good for the team…
i just don’t want thierren.
www.anyonebutcrosby.blogspot.com
devils and stuff...
Johnny Mac should get the job but Therrien or Hitchcock will most likely get it because Lou is in crazy “win now” mode so bringing in an inexperienced coach would be to risky. Whoever he hires probably wont work out and Maclean will be head coach within 3 years so it just makes more sense to do it now.
If MacLean is around in 3 years. Some other organization may scoop him for an NHL coaching job before that. Looking at the list of “free agent” coaches this year, he may be a very good choice in the next couple of years if the opportunity arises.
by Matthew Ventolo on Jun 7, 2010 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Even if MacLean needs more time in the AHL, replacing one out-dated defense-first dinosaur with another isn’t going to make us any better a team. All this talk about “change” Lou’s been throwing at us would be nothing but hot air if he turns around and hires another Montreal re-tread from another era. MacLean, Haviland, Muller, or anyone else from the 21st century would be a far better choice. We have too many talented forwards and not enough good defensemen to think we can still play as if we have the 1995 roster and win another Cup.
(I agree this was a little melodramatic for something that hasn’t even happened but I can’t possibly get across how much I would disagree with this move.)
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Oh, condense the nonsense, the 09-10 team didn’t play anything like 1995 or even trap like the Wild or Rangers under Renney. Moreover, how is Therrien a defense-first coach given how the Pens got regularly outshot under them per earlier comments?
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by John Fischer on Jun 7, 2010 11:51 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
therrien is unquestionably a defense-first coach. his version of defense, however, is like montreal’s. when you get a lead, put guys in a passive box in the defensive zone and try to force outside shots. when you get to the red line with the puck, dump it in, and let the other team get it, repeat. and how about this ‘grunge’ music coming out of seattle?
it’s a style of play that pretends that the rules of the game didn’t change significantly post-2005 – it pretends it’s still 1993 and that other teams play terrible systematic hockey. players coming into the league now have been facing neutral zone traps and defensive systems since they were 9 years old.
And yet he reached the SCF with it. Not to mention his 07-08 team outscored Sutter’s “less of the same” system by 41 goals, and was only outscored by the 08-09 Cup winning Penguins team by 17 goals and the 09-10 “All Bylsma, All the Time: Offensive Powerhouse Edition” by 10 goals, or that his 06-07 Penguins outscored all of them, and was 2nd in the league in GF behind only Buffalo’s 308.
He may be defensive minded, but give some credit… his teams scored some goals too. If you’ll recall, when Bylsma took over last year the Penguins went to their new “defensive scheme”, a 1-2-2 (colloquially known as “the trap”, but only if the Devils do it), and ended up having some success with it.
His first year in Pittsburgh was forgettable (05-06: 244 GF 316 GA -72 Goal Differential), but he turned it around quickly:
- 277GF 246GA +31GD in 06-07 (33GF -70GA +103GD from previous year)
- 247GF 216GA +31GD in 07-08 (-30GF -30GA +0GD from previous year)
- 264GF 238GA +25GD in 08-09 (17GF +22GA -6GD from previous year, though he was fired after 57 games)
I’m not rallying for the guy. Frankly, I hope he doesn’t get the job, but I think he’s getting a bum rap here. His teams performed pretty consistently good on both ends of the ice… and if he can bring some offense to an already good defensive team, then he’s the right man for the job because that’s just what the Devils need.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
of course his teams scored goals. wow, his 07-08 team with crosby, malkin, and a month and a half of hossa outscored a new jersey team with zach parise and little else? color me shocked. crosby and malkin have shown not only to be excellent players, but unlike zach parise, both players elevate on-ice shooting percentage at even strength. zach parise does not do this – zach and his line(s) score more often than other lines because they generate so many shots on goal.
therrien was trapping the whole time with pittsburgh. it was comical to watch. there were two games that stand out to me as fireable offenses, both against new jersey, where he inexplicably had malkin and crosby on the same line when all his other lines were just getting pounded territorially by new jersey.
coaching makes much less of a difference in the NHL than people think – with great players, anyone looks like a great coach, dan bylsma has a stanley cup ring after all – but therrien would be about the worst hire imaginable.
A defensive first system isn’t going to get the 2nd highest GF in the entire league in the post-lockout NHL no matter who is on the team. Talking shooting percentage is counter-productive to your argument because a defense first team, especially Therrien’s as you outline it, would get ahead early and then sit back the rest of the game and all those big name offensive producers wouldn’t have the gaudy numbers they do.
Besides, 06-07 was only Crosby’s sophomore year (in which his assists went up, but his goals actually went down to “only” 36) and Malkin’s rookie season (in which he “only” scored 33 goals). There are still 208 goals scored by guys not named Crosby or Malkin; a total that, by itself, would still have them ahead of 3 other teams in GF.
I don’t understand your last sentence at all. You dismiss the value of coaching but simultaneously rail against a specific coach because you feel his style would be detrimental.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
“A defensive first system isn’t going to get the 2nd highest GF in the entire league in the post-lockout NHL no matter who is on the team.”
Truer. Words. Never. Spoken.
Why do you think the Devils finished 19th in the NHL in goals for despite having a roster with names including Parise, Zajac, Zubrus, Kovalchuk, Elias, Langenbrunner, Clarkson, etc.?
Defensive first system.
The New Jersey Devils would thrive with any coach who establishes a strong forecheck and heavy reliance on offense, which is indeed a mold that Therrien fit in the past despite his “infamous” reputation for basing his game on defense first.
New Jersey Devils and New York Yankees: Thrivin' on the Hate Game since 1982 and 1903, respectively.
i’m sorry but i don’t think you watched either the therrien pens or the lemaire devils. the fact that you think that therrien establishes a strong forecheck and heavy reliance on offense is an absurdity. lemaire didn’t fall into the 1-2-2 all that often this season; the devils were so low in goals for for a number of reasons, and lemaire’s ‘system’ is a contributor, but not as much as one would think.
2005-06: 243 G, 17th in NHL
2006-07: 267 G, 3rd
2007-08: 240 G, 7th
2008-09: 258 G, 6th (Over 200 goals with Therrien in 58 (?) games.)
No defensive-minded coach has a team scoring this many goals in the post-lockout NHL. It just doesn’t happen.
New Jersey Devils and New York Yankees: Thrivin' on the Hate Game since 1982 and 1903, respectively.
it doesn’t happen because you say it doesn’t happen. and yet, there they are, near the bottom in the league in shots for every year.
2006-07: 1st in PPs For, 18th in shots on goal
2007-08: 4th in PPs For, 21st in shots on goal
2008-09: 5th in PPs For, 17th in shots on goal
2009-10: 4th in PPs For…….. 4th in shots on goal
wow how did that happen?! some of it is likely because pittsburgh power plays lasted slightly longer. but pittsburgh now outshoots teams at even strength instead of getting outshot. and that’s because bylsma has them playing the right way, even if he can’t coach a power play and overuses craig adams and does a bunch of other dumb stuff.
Not sure why you’re so hung up on shots for/against. It’s a flawed statistic to begin with, and isn’t always indicative of a team’s overall performance.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
how many top teams do you see that get outshot over the course of a season? very, very few. this is far more important than goals for/goals against.
i prefer fenwick number to shots for/against but that can be a giant pain to find.
therrien had a team with a ready-made top power play that draws more penalties than its opponent and had it playing a defensive shell, 1-2-2 trap style of hockey. they got absolutely dominated in the 2008 finals, not surprisingly (though that red wings team was amazing).
Sorry, but goals win games, not shots.
How many goals you score and give up are far more important than how many shots you take or allow.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
Both have meaning – you can’t totally control goals, but you can control shots through systems.
Triumph’s point is basically that while Fenwick/Corsi numbers would be ideal, in absence of pulling those numbers, the average shots for and shots against are a way to get an understanding of how the team performed. That said, I’d argue that’s not just on the coaches but also on the players and the GM for constructing the roster. It’s entirely possible that, yes, Therrien was defensive for a roster that really wasn’t suited for it; but it’s just also possible that Therrien wasn’t as defensive and the Penguins were just poor on defense as well as Therrien had the right idea, but Bylsma communicated it better and other fun possibilities.
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the average shots for and shots against are a way to get an understanding of how the team performed.
Agreed. But an even better way to understand how the team performed is to look at the results.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
no, that’s not better, because it’s not predictive, so it’s going to give you a flawed perspective about how good any particular team is.
when you do well at the percentages (shooting and save), as pittsburgh did in 08, you finish high in the standings. when you do poorly at them, as pittsburgh generally did in 09, you end up in 10th place and have to fire the coach. but, if you outshoot the opponent by enough, you don’t have to rely on the percentages. and when the percentages go well for you, you can really dominate.
well, it did, so there’s that. how about the fact that pittsburgh was outshot that year?
like i explained above, crosby and malkin elevate on-ice shooting percentage – is it any wonder that other players scored a lot as well when they were on the ice?
i dismiss the value of coaching because coaches only make a difference within a certain range. i don’t think a coach is responsible for many wins or losses during a season. i do, however, think that therrien is basically the worst choice possible for new jersey.
They were average in GA in the league that year (16th), so if they were a defense first team, they weren’t very good at it.
Being out shot could be indicative of a lot of things. Considering your point about shot percentages, they probably often scored first and had to hold off their opponents comeback attempts.
Yes, it’s a wonder that other guys scored 208 goals on a supposedly defense first team that somehow consistently got out shot and had to play about 40 minutes per game with neither Crosby nor Malkin on the ice. If those two raise the shot percentage by being out there, then by definition the S% must be lower when they are not; and yet the rest of the team scored only 8 less goals than a known defense first team like NJ.
If the coach doesn’t make a difference in many wins or losses, why should it matter who the coach is?
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
Just a quick question that just occurred to me:
New coach, old coach; set in his ways or open to experimentation; defensive minded or all about the attack – what coach who has ever coached would look at a roster with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and try to hold them back?
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
michael therrien did, so there’s one guy who would do that. i know of one.
‘if the coach doesn’t make a difference in many wins or losses, why should it matter who the coach is?’
depending on how this off-season goals, the devils will probably be a fringe playoff team. therrien’s awfulness could just be the difference between new jersey making the playoffs and not making it. after all, he was basically the difference in 2008-09.
Yes. He did right to the tune of having his team at the top of the league in scoring every year… and actually scoring more than they do under Bylsma.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
i am sure that was therrien’s brilliant offensive gameplanning.
i fully expect the penguins to have a top 5 in the league power play next season, and with it, a top offense once again.
Right, because coaches don’t impact games unless it suits your argument that Bylsma has the guys “playing the right way.”
I’m not arguing Therrien is a brilliant offensive gameplanner; just that he’s not the defense first guy you seem to have him pegged as. The results don’t lie… his team scored goals and were average defensively. You can argue all you want that it’s because he had two supremely gifted scorers on his team who scored in spite of his system, but they still scored as well, if not better, than have under the “offensively minded” Bylsma.
They were top 5 in GF in 09-10, even with a miserable PP.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
to reply to your post above, goals are far more random than most hockey fans think. it’s the underlying numbers that are important.
so when the fenwick number ((shots on goal FOR + missed shots FOR)/(SOGA + MSA)) with therrien is 46.7% and the fenwick post therrien getting fired is 52.8%, i think i’m right to conclude that even in spite of the injury to sergei gonchar and the personnel changes that came at the end of the year, that therrien was doing a terrible job – that therrien’s team was getting brutally outshot despite having two of the best players in the world, and that there’s absolutely no excuse for that. i am right to conclude that therrien was defense-first based on the eye test as well as by statistics – shall i look at shots on goal rates with bylsma versus therrien?
i expect the pittsburgh power play to return to prominence for similar reasons.
No it shouldn’t, then it would be Corsi.
Fenwick is just Corsi – Blocked shots.
And I’m pretty sure the originator was Matt Fenwick?
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Above you dismiss the effect a coach has on winning and losing, but here you’re blaming Therrien for the team playing too defensively and yet, inexplicably, giving up too many shots and scoring more goals than 28 other teams.
And, “brutally out shot”?
Aside from his first season, the Penguins averaged 2.13 more SA/G than SF/G. This past year there were 15 teams with higher SA/G than SF/G, averaging 2.47 more (the highest difference being 5.7). Out shot, yes. “Brutally” or “massively” so? No.
Shots are not only counted differently in every arena, and therefore questionable to base statistics you’re going to place so much weight in, but also not the whole story. Ask Washington how a lot of shots helped them against Montreal.
In the end, goals win games. Shots are just performance indicators. One of many.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
i’m not surprised i’m arguing not well, this is a complicated thing to cover.
your problem is that you keep using things like goals for and going to the stanley cup finals as indicative of prowess at coaching. however, i can very easily resolve this:
but here you’re blaming Therrien for the team playing too defensively and yet, inexplicably, giving up too many shots
how is that inexplicable? if you believed, as i do, that shot suppression is really overrated and difficult, and that therrien’s 1-2-2 basically just let people fire away in the offensive zone – yes. passive systems can give up a lot of shots. just look at montreal in the playoffs, like you said. but of course washington must’ve failed because lol they lost, montreal totally outplayed them.
and scoring more goals than 28 other teams.
just like i don’t think that coaches can increase defense by all that much (according to gabe desjardins, hitchcock and lemaire are the only ones who’ve demonstrably done so), i don’t think coaches can retard offense by that much. ken hitchcock had several years where his team was top 10 in goals. jacques lemaire had the devils at #2 overall in goals in 1994. and so forth. the problem is that i think that therrien is one of the worst offenders at playing a passive strategy when he gets a lead, and you can’t do this anymore and expect to continue to hold on to leads.
i consider it being brutally and massively outshot when you have sidney crosby and evgeni malkin and THE NEXT GUY COMES IN AND IMMEDIATELY DOES WAY WAY BETTER. WAY WAY WAY WAY BETTER. pittsburgh went from one of the worst teams to one of the best teams with regard to shooting and outshooting overnight. and has kept that up this season. now i’m willing to say that gonchar and whitney being injured did not help matters one bit, and that no doubt some of the improvement is from that and the subsequent moves.
using shots for one team is totally fine, because i’m largely using it as a percentage, so don’t confound matters with shot recording biases. if pittsburgh replaced its scorer when they fired therrien you’d have a point.
goals win games but are determined by a far larger chance component than 99% of NHL fans are willing to admit. bruins were 2 in offense in 09, 29 in 2010, must be phil kessel leaving and not regression to the mean (when in fact it’s pretty clearly both).
your problem is that you keep using things like goals for and going to the stanley cup finals as indicative of prowess at coaching.
No. I’m using things like goals for and going to the Stanley Cup Finals as indicative that the system he runs, of which you are being very critical, has been shown that it can work.
passive systems can give up a lot of shots.
Agreed. This is a perfect example of how shot totals alone are an ineffective measure of a team. Where the shots are taken from and what the situation is when the other team is out shooting them are more important.
but of course washington must’ve failed because lol they lost, montreal totally outplayed them.
Not at all what I said. Just trying to illustrate that shot totals don’t always tell the whole story.
the problem is that i think that therrien is one of the worst offenders at playing a passive strategy when he gets a lead, and you can’t do this anymore and expect to continue to hold on to leads.
That’s the gist of it. You’re confusing his passivity with “defense first”. The key to that statement is that he “gets a lead” first.
i consider it being brutally and massively outshot when you have sidney crosby and evgeni malkin and THE NEXT GUY COMES IN AND IMMEDIATELY DOES WAY WAY BETTER. WAY WAY WAY WAY BETTER. pittsburgh went from one of the worst teams to one of the best teams with regard to shooting and outshooting overnight. and has kept that up this season.
Yet you argue the coaches have little impact.
Could it be that Bylsma just has a more aggressive system? Not that Therrien was so defense first, but that Bylsma is just tilted more toward offense? Or that perhaps Bylsma’s AC’s worked with the defense to block more shots? Or the players were shocked into better performances by their coach being fired? Or some combination of all of these things, plus others we may not be privy to?
using shots for one team is totally fine, because i’m largely using it as a percentage, so don’t confound matters with shot recording biases. if pittsburgh replaced its scorer when they fired therrien you’d have a point.
It’s known that it is not an accurately kept statistic, so basing opinions on it or even more advanced stats on it puts them on a shaky foundation. It’s not “confounding matters”, it’s fact. If it were evidence in a trial it wouldn’t be accepted, why should it be accepted at face value in the evaluation of a team’s performance?
goals win games but are determined by a far larger chance component than 99% of NHL fans are willing to admit.
So you keep saying. It’s a good thing we ignoramuses have you in your one percentedness here to set us all straight.
bruins were 2 in offense in 09, 29 in 2010, must be phil kessel leaving and not regression to the mean (when in fact it’s pretty clearly both).
Or, the Penguins had a Fenwick Number of 46.7% with Therrien, and 52.8% with Bylsma. Must be Therrien leaving and not regression (progression?) to the mean.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
anything can work when you have crosby malkin and hossa and you get the happy side of the percentages. claude julien got fired, went to boston, and got the great side of the percentages and won the conference.
re: shot location – i don’t think teams can control that as well as you’d think, but you probably think that montreal forced washington to the outside or similar claptrap.
re: using shots – i guess we should just use goals for and against, there’s no problem with those numbers at all.
anything can work when you have crosby malkin and hossa and you get the happy side of the percentages. claude julien got fired, went to boston, and got the great side of the percentages and won the conference.
So it’s all luck now?
re: shot location – i don’t think teams can control that as well as you’d think
Gabe Desjardins disagrees. Specific to your statement:
Clearly Minnesota was able to limit the highest-percentage shots, while allowing more shots from the point and from outside the faceoff dots.
and:
So clearly Minnesota’s own analysis – which presumably uses more sophisticated data from their scorers than I can get for free – shows that Backstrom is both an exceptional goaltender and a beneficiary of the reduced opponent shot quality that resulted from his coach’s defensive strategy.
Emphasis mine.
Regardless, my point was that there are additional factors to consider when looking at how many shots a team takes and gives up. Using just shot totals alone is over-simplifying things, and forming opinions on just that data (without even getting into how the gathering process is flawed) is akin to judging a book by its cover.
You’re not seeing the forest for the trees here. You’re so focused on shot totals that you’re discounting every other statistic.
Your whole point, and the one I disagree with, is that Therrien is a defense first coach. Your evidence of this is the shot totals and how statistics stemming from them changed for the better when he left, and you dismiss achievements of the team while he coached them as inconsequential or else not his doing.
re: using shots – i guess we should just use goals for and against, there’s no problem with those numbers at all.
No. Using only one metric to judge performance is the trap statheads who think they know more than everyone else fall into.
I bring up goals for and against merely as a counterpoint. If one stat proves your argument, then one contrary stat should disprove it, no?
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
i don’t think you understand how offense and defense play into each other. this isn’t football. when you get the puck, you’re going to play offense. coaching doesn’t really stop that. i think it’s so easily demonstrable that therrien is a defense-first coach, it’s just absurd to argue otherwise. if he’s hired he’ll give the same apologia that every devils new hire gives, that his reputation for defense is overblown, and that he likes offense, and then we’ll see 1 2 2, passive box in the D zone, 35 shot games against.
gabe desjardins doesn’t disagree with what i said above – that hitchcock and lemaire are the only coaches who’ve been proven to reduce shot quality. even if therrien’s system reduces shot quality, it’s questionable by how much and how smart it is to play a style that reduces shot quality in favor of more shots given up.
anyway whatever, it’s a lock that the devils with therrien will have under 50% fenwick, but hey therrien will help the offense.
i think it’s so easily demonstrable that therrien is a defense-first coach
So demonstrate it. So far all you’ve pointed to are shot totals.
it’s just absurd to argue otherwise.
It’s absurd to dismiss goals for as unrelated to the coaches system.
hitchcock and lemaire are the only coaches who’ve been proven to reduce shot quality.
We’re not talking shot quality. We’re talking shot location. You suggest teams can’t “control that as well as you’d think.” I linked you to an article in which it’s shown that it can be with the proper system… but that’s neither here nor there. I have no intention of getting into a discussion about who can or can’t affect shots outside of how it relates to your contention that shots for and against are some sort of perfect team measurement.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
it absolutely is not absurd to dismiss goals for as unrelated to the coaches system. the problem with using things like goals for is that it is so subject to year-to-year variation that appear to be beyond a coach’s control. like i said, hitchcock has coached teams at the top of the league in offense, and at the bottom. lemaire has done the same thing. ron wilson, pretty much the same thing. i understand this is begging the question. but with only 3 years of even strength data at my fingertips,i would find it absolutely impossible to start making proclamations about coaches who elevate ES S%, or PP S%.
oh, we’re not talking about shot quality, we’re talking about shot location? well, who cares, then? i only care about shot location insofar as it relates to shot quality – otherwise why does it make a difference where shots are taken from?
You can’t say he is the WORST possibility for the coaching job. So Ken Hitchcock is number 1 on your list? Therrien still coached a team to the finals. Goals for or goals against, they made it to atleast the 2nd round!!! I would prefer Carbs but Therrien isn’t a bad coach either.
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by RolliePollieKovy on Jun 7, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I hate being the “homer,” but ffs Johnny Mac’s been being groomed for this since he stopped putting on a sweater. He’s had enough experience coaching. He knows the game. The team is ready for some long term stability at HC, commitment to youth (required if the big 3 are all resigned), and someone who they can look at and just know that he’s there for them as a team.
I would like to see someone like Bob Boughner who coaches a puck possession style of hockey take over the head coache of the Devils. I think it is time that we changed the “system”. I think our team is more suited to that type of system than the old transition system. A young up and coming coach would also help the young players coming up in our system.
Next Coach
The next coach “should be” Johnny Mac but as time goes by it looks like it is not going to hapen. Johnny Mac knows the Devils players here and in the minors as well as Organization. A bigger plus is that he know Jersey and wants to be here for the long term unlike other previous coaches who came and left after a short period. Lou likes to do the unexpected so our next coach will probably somebody who has not been mentioned before ?
Bad Choice?
If it is Therrian it is only a bad choice if we have the same types of perceived locker ‘issues’ that we have had over the past few seasons.
If the team shut out and didn’t respond to a Stanley Cup Champion as a player and coach in Lemaire, it doesn’t matter who you bring in unless there is some attitude adjustment for some of the players. Whether that means eating a contract for $4MM, I would rather that then wasting a season to get bounced in the first round again.
i think the fear of losing johnny mac is overblown.
(a) a large majority of coaches are fired within 5 years. even if he signs on to coach with another organization, the devils will get the chance to bring him back at some point in the future.
(b) the devils’ coaching carousel spins so fast that he could be a candidate for the job again next year, or the year after, before he’s offered a deal by other teams.
© if he’s hired by the devils, he will be fired one day and he will go to another organization. the coaches that stay with the devils organization even after they are relieved of their coaching duties are guys that were coming to the end of their coaching careers, like pat burns and larry robinson. johnny mac is way too young for that.
if you’re going to advocate for hiring johnny mac as an nhl head coach right now, it should be on his coaching merits. any argument that it’s his time or that we’ll lose him to another team is a sentimental mistake. let the guy do what’s best for himself, which is to get his earn his nhl head coaching chops elsewhere – in a less pressure-packed situation – and then come back home when that gig is over.
Not a MacLean advocate but......
So is your argument that he shouldn’t be hired because all coaches get fired and he would have another chance down the road, but would inevitably get fired?
I am not in favor of MacLean only because of the current roster makeup, but for that same reason I can’t see hiring Haviland either. He has had more success than Mac but in another organization. Haviland has probably been mentioned by numerous fans more from the article that Gulutti wrote last year advocating him more than anything else.
i’m saying johnny mac will spend some time with another organization at some point in his coaching career. i believe that’s inevitable, unless coaching the devils makes him quit coaching altogether.
i’m also saying let’s not all weep if johnny mac is hired to coach for another team. i would be happy for him and i would have a strong feeling that he will be back with the organization sometime in the future.
johnny mac is a guy you would want for the long-term, but the devils’ current win-now mentality doesn’t offer much patience and it’s just not the best situation for him.
Why make Mac the HC:
In my mind, things need to change, perhaps drastically, for this team to turn from playoff contender to cup contender in the last few years we will have Marty’s (and Elias’) services. Simply resigning “key” personnel and a couple off season FA/Trade acquisitions to fill a hole or 2 in the line-up will result in nothing more than the same early playoff exit.
I’m not sure what that change is. But stability from within the organization at HC with an intimate knowledge of the capabilities of the young guys that will be asked to step into primary roles, especially if certain high dollar FAs are resigned or persued, is going to be one key to the success of the team.
Johnny Mac is in this unique position. Do I think he could use another season or two of HC experience? Of course. But there are special circumstances. Marty is another year closer to hanging up the skates. We’ve got the chance to sign a superstar long term. We’ve got a pending youth movement. He knows those guys. He’s coached those guys. For me, that’s that kind of relationship I want. That’s the guy i want coaching this team. It just stinks of the kind of emotional charge and dedication to a younger, faster team, a team of the current NHL, that is so desperately needed to push this team to Cup contender level.
guys here look what apperently is with kovy
On Kovalchuk…
The Devils are rumored to be talking to Michel Therrien about the head coaching job and I am told that Kovalchuk has been talking to some of his Russian friends who played for Therrien in Pittsburgh. The Devils are rumored to be offering up a MAJOR multi-year deal as well as the captaincy to Ilya.
The Devils are also trying to make some other moves as well…
This is all VERY un-Devils like stuff, and I am told that one of the primary owners for the Devils is pushing very hard for Kovalchuk and trying to get the team to move to a more “offensive minded style.”
Wow like captaincy and big money huh… maybe we are going for offense 0.o
If we signed Ilya, we may not be able to sign anyone else. There are other areas on the team that need improvement. I like IIya, I just don’t know how he fits into the salary cap.
You're Next!
by thatguy011071 on Jun 7, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah sure one sec.
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Eklund/Latest-on-Kovalchuk-Kaberle-Spezza-Semin-Marleau-Volchenkov-/1/28687 I know its eklund but i find him right alot of the time
Excellent, absorbing as we speak.
You're Next!
by thatguy011071 on Jun 7, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
That is very interesting if true. The thing is, just my opinion here, that to become a more open team we need to really improve the speed on the defense. That’s the first thing that comes to mind.
You're Next!
by thatguy011071 on Jun 7, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I know its eklund but i find him right alot of the time
Oddly, I find the exact opposite to be true.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
Even a blind man playing darts hits a bullseye once in a while.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
Or some poor dude in the eye. Ow!
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by thatguy011071 on Jun 7, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
kovalchuk
brings ton more fans into the stadium. and i know you don’t like it but if it was parise or kovalchuk for the same money id take kovy
Well personally speaking, I would like it to be true but it brings up a whole new bunch of other questions I just don’t have the space to ask here.
You're Next!
by thatguy011071 on Jun 7, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
He did help increase attendance for the Devils, a lot of other factors helped too, but you can’t ignore a superstar coming in from a trade.
by Matthew Ventolo on Jun 7, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
No he didn't
He pretty much just speculated a rumor that was posted on the Fire & Ice blog site about something Denis Potvin had said in an interview. Also, if you follow him on twitter, notice how quickly he writes as his own comments from TSN, USA Today, etc.
I never heard of the guy, unless its the player, Pelle Eklund.
You're Next!
by thatguy011071 on Jun 7, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Haviland
I have been a swinging the Maclean banner a long time here but Haviland really seems the proper choice. However, I am reading articles about the firing of Therrien and a lot of the polls are saying he should not have been canned from Pittsburgh. They put the blame on Shero and the team itself. However Therrien was the easy mark. So I like both those guys.
You're Next!
Darren Dreger tweeted this earlier this afternoon
Everyone take a deep, deep breath.
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FYI, Haviland only went to one Kelly Cup Finals with Atlantic City.
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Really? Per Hockey DB, Atlantic City lost in Round 4 in the ECHL playoffs in 01-02. Did the ECHL have more than 4 rounds back then?
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
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I don’t think so, but there were a few seasons where there were best-of-three wild card rounds. Maybe that’s what they’re counting. The Bullies lost in the Conference Finals to Dayton in 2002, though, for sure.
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by Travis Hughes on Jun 9, 2010 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Ah, OK then. I’ll make the correction when able.
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by John Fischer on Jun 9, 2010 9:09 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well maybe were blowing this out of proportion… This now worries me… I thought there will be a definent coach at the end of the finals and now we have to wait more and more for an INTERVIEW. Lou better not hire a head coach after contracts aren’t offered to our players. He better not back into another hole.
Let the disagreement begin….
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
by RolliePollieKovy on Jun 7, 2010 5:03 PM EDT reply actions

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