Copper & Blue Identifies Who May Be Prone to Offer Sheets
You want a "think outside the box" idea for the New Jersey Devils offseason? How about dual offer sheets? After the draft, compensation would be for 2011 picks. The Devils have plenty of those. So why not use them try to snag Sam Gagner from Edmonton, or be truly devilish and pull a dual offer sheet for Marc Girardi and Marc Staal from the Rangers? It's not like Lou will be trading with the Rangers anytime soon or that the Oilers can hit back with an offer sheet in the near future.
Will Lou do something like this? Probably not, but it's something to think about. Come up with your own in the comments.
over 1 year ago
John Fischer
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Sather seems to like holding out players and trying to trade them (aka Dubinsky.) Staal would really get the rivalry going even more. If Staal’s price tag isn’t to hefty he may put in an offer sheet. That would be epic if he signed him long term.
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
by RolliePollieKovy on Jun 8, 2010 8:02 AM EDT reply actions
i’m surprised by how affordable offer sheets actually are, especially at the lower salary levels. a young 3 million dollar player who might be able to step into a 2nd line role immediately is easily worth more than just a 2nd rd pick. it’s a little harder to justify a 4 million dollar player who would also play a second-line role costing a 1st and a 3rd, but the guy is ready to play immediately, whereas a 1st rd pick (esp for a perennial playoff team) can take 3-5 yrs to develop into an NHL player when you factor in the fact that the draft occurs almost a full year after you’ve signed the player to the offer sheet.
i know brian burke feels offer sheets are one of the seven deadly sins but he got absolutely shafted when he traded for phil kessel. kessel makes what…5 something a year? only costing a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in an offer sheet, yet burke somehow gave up two 1sts and a 2nd!
most of the teams listed here aren’t so close to the cap that they won’t match the offer. for instance, there’s no way that the rangers are letting go of marc staal and i personally don’t feel that strongly about girardi, who is going to hit UFA status pretty soon. similarly, i don’t think edmonton will let go of gagner and i think cogliano is overrated – and i think edmonton would match an offer sheet for him in the 1.9 million range, as suggested by the article.
the hawks are legitimately in cap trouble but i think that they will match an offer sheet to hjalmarsson and worry about the cap repercussions later because his contract won’t be THAT big. ladd’s contract would pose more of a problem for them, but the devils don’t need another winger.
i would be interested in trading for someone like gilbert brule while threatening to float him an offer sheet. the guy has to be considered a disappointment given how high he was drafted, but he had a pretty good year last year and he’s not as much value to edmonton anymore. edmonton’s top 2 centers of the future are gagner and the #1 pick in this year’s draft. they don’t need a guy with as much high-end skill as brule to play for their third line or to shift him to wing and the devils have dearth of prospects with this much skill. i would be willing to take a chance on a guy like brule for 2 mil a year – the guys at copper and blue estimated his arbitration value at 1.55 here. he may very well turn out to be a genuine bust, but he’s only 23 and 2 mil plus a 2nd rd pick and change isn’t a terribly large gamble.
most of the teams listed here aren’t so close to the cap that they won’t match the offer. for instance, there’s no way that the rangers are letting go of marc staal and i personally don’t feel that strongly about girardi, who is going to hit UFA status pretty soon. similarly, i don’t think edmonton will let go of gagner and i think cogliano is overrated – and i think edmonton would match an offer sheet for him in the 1.9 million range, as suggested by the article.
Those teams are in more cap distress than you say here. Consider that if we estimate a $2,000,000 cap increase (as has been rumoured) this is the current situation. (Number of “end-of-the-roster” contracts are in bolded brackets)
Chicago: $1,200,000 million in cap space, 14 players under contract. 1
New York: $11,000,000 million in cap space, 14 players under contract. 4(assuming Brashear is cut)
Montreal: $13,000,000 million in cap space, 14 players under contract. 4
Edmonton: $11,000,000 million in cap space, 16 players under contract 6 (asssuming #1 overall makes the team)
Dallas $10,000,000 in payroll under self-imposed budget, 17 players under contract. 6
There isn’t much cap space for these teams out there, especially when you consider that many of the “contract players” are 4th line/13th forward types.
Giving Gagner a $4 million offer would put Edmonton in an enormous cap bind. Giving Neal a $4 million offer would force Dallas to break their budget in the midst of attempted to sell the team.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
regarding the oilers, the numbers i get from capgeek and the addition of the #1 overall pick for 3.75 mil plus 2 mil more in cap space gives me a calculated cap space of 12.5 mil. of those contracts, i count five top-6 forwards: horcoff, penner, hemsky, paarjavi-svensson, and hall/seguin. re-signing gagner for 4 mil and cogliano for 2 mil, as you suggest, leaves 6.5 mil of cap space for signing one depth forward, a backup goaltender, and two depth defensemen. not the tightest of salary cap binds. there is no doubt in my mind that edmonton would match any offer sheet for gagner up to 5.5 mil.
similarly, the rangers have most of their top-6 forwards in place. again, taking the numbers from capgeek and factoring in a 2 mil increase in cap space, i get a cap space of 12.5 mil (i don’t see why brashear would be cut since his cap hit can’t come off the books due to the 35+ rule). after re-signing staal and girardi for 7 mil combined, they will have 5.5 mil to buy themselves a top-6 forward, two depth forwards, one depth D, and a backup goaltender. if staal and girardi cost them that much, they will probably have to forgo the acquisition of a top-6 forward, but i’m sure they’ll match the offer sheets you suggest there.
i also think that dallas’ self-imposed budget will mean little when it comes to matching an offer sheet for neal. any prospective owner knows that brad richards’ contract expires at the end of this season and that allowing promising young players to be lost to restricted free agency would only hurt the future bottom line.
From the CBA
Entry Level players will be subject to a maximum annual salary (plus signing and games played bonuses) of $850,000 for 2005 and 2006 draftees; $875,000 for 2007 and 2008 draftees; $900,000 for 2009 and 2010; and $925,000 for 2011 draftees.
So the Oilers #1 pick isn’t making more than $900K, so there’s 2.85M more for the Oilers to use.
Go Jets
Go Devils
i think you’re right that the #1 pick could only make a max of 900K this year in salary, but when you factor in signing bonus, i’m not sure how much of an impact that has on the cap hit this year. drew doughty is listed as counting for a cap hit of 3.475 mil this past year as well as the upcoming season. john tavares is listed at 3.75 mil per the numbers from nhlscap.com. capgeek only has 2010-11 numbers, not 2009-10 numbers, but lists the same cap hit for each player.
teams also have a bonus cushion – i’m too lazy to go look up what it is, but i believe it’s around $10 million per team. each team can exceed the salary cap by up to $10 million in bonuses. the only year this bonus cushion was not in place was 2008-09, for reasons that are still vague to me.
so effectively, a player on an entry level deal’s cap hit is exactly what his salary is, and the bonus doesn’t need to be taken into account.
i know brian burke feels offer sheets are one of the seven deadly sins but he got absolutely shafted when he traded for phil kessel. kessel makes what…5 something a year? only costing a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in an offer sheet, yet burke somehow gave up two 1sts and a 2nd!
Actually, if Burke had signed an offer sheet, the Bruins would’ve matched, placed Kessel on LTIR (recovering from Shoulder Surgery last May) and made cap space. It’s a rare situation when an RFA is injured and can be placed on LTIR. When that’s the case, a trade is the only option for the team pursuing said RFA
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by Kevin Sellathamby on Jun 8, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
There's two things I don't understand
Derek says this:
By sending out a dual offer sheet in this manner, the offering team is putting each of their top three picks on the line, but at worst can only lose either the 1st and 3rd round picks or the 2nd round pick.
But if the current team decides to match neither offer (or in the case of the Blackhawks, really can’t), wouldn’t the offering team be liable for all 3 picks?
Secondly, if GMs don’t like offer sheets in general, why would they like dual offer sheets? Seems to me it’s an even worse “affront” because you’re somewhat forcing the team to choose which of their players to keep (even assuming nobody else makes offers to the same players).
Go Jets
Go Devils
But if the current team decides to match neither offer (or in the case of the Blackhawks, really can’t), wouldn’t the offering team be liable for all 3 picks?
Yes.
Secondly, if GMs don’t like offer sheets in general, why would they like dual offer sheets?
Agreed. I don’t know why someone would endorse this type of behavior, as I see it only having negative effects down the line in terms of inter-team relations.
It’s like a salesman poaching clients from co-workers. It might not be against company rules, but it’s certainly not going to make you any friends who are going to do you any favors later on.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
Agreed. I don’t know why someone would endorse this type of behavior, as I see it only having negative effects down the line in terms of inter-team relations.
I address it in the first paragraph. Regier wanted to fight Lowe, yet he turned around and traded with the Oilers two years later. General Managers are always going to do what’s best for their club. It’s not like offer sheets are a rare occurrence in the NHL.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
That was the Oilers making a bid on an RFA, not a dual offer sheet kicking the Sabres while they’re vulnerable and forcing them to choose between Vanek and Player X.
You’re right. GM’s are going to do what is best for their team, and if part of that is dealing with someone they don’t like or whose politics they don’t agree with, they’ll do it, but GM’s are people, and sometimes people let bad blood influence their decisions.
Dual offer sheets are, in my mind, akin to a player goading another player to fight but then not dropping his gloves. It’s legal, but it goes against the spirit of the game and should earn that person a reputation for being a shifty jerk.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
Seems like dirty pool to me.
It’s certainly not going to make you any friends, which may end up hurting you when it comes time to work out trades for players or draft picks later on with some of the GM’s you did this to or to those who don’t like that you work that way.
And, what goes around usually comes around, so it wouldn’t be a big shock if other GM’s did the same back to you when you found yourself in a similar situation.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain (?)
True. That’s why its more wishful thinking than anything else; Lou doesn’t burn bridges unless necessary.
I think if it should be done, ideally it would be with teams the Devils would almost never deal with like the Rangers (and yes I got Dan Girardi’s name wrong) or the Flyers.
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by John Fischer on Jun 8, 2010 12:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
i don’t think the devils can afford to be giving up 2011 picks, but even besides that, signing RFAs generally helps no one. IIRC, offer sheets can be used as evidence in arbitration, so they end up costing the league as a whole. you have a slim chance of actually getting the player, and when you do, you’ve usually overpaid him, as well as been forced to give up draft picks. it really only makes sense for teams that are completely hamstrung by the cap, but besides chicago there aren’t any of those teams around.
lou is the last GM i would expect to engage in this.
If Martin doesn't return for some reason...
then sending dual offers to the Rags defensemen wouldn’t be a bad idea. I really wouldn’t know who Sather would choose (Can they afford Staal?).
I also wouldn’t mind dual offers to the Caps’ Jeff Schultz and Tomas Fleischmann. Getting either a big defender good in his own end or a 50 point center would be worth the draft pick risk.
I want to see it happen just for the Rangers’ fan reactions.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
haha..That would be nice too
After Gomez and even either further back Holik going to the Rags for the $$$. It would be nice to put them in a situation like that and beat them at their own game so to speak.
by Matthew Ventolo on Jun 8, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Fleisch is a good center, I don’t think he is 2nd line material though. Maybe 3rd.
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
by RolliePollieKovy on Jun 8, 2010 4:05 PM EDT reply actions
Agree...
The Devils really only have Zajac as a true center. Are either McAmmond or Niedermayer going to be resigned? Is Pelley or Sestito ready to step into a 3rd line role? Fleischmann at 3rd line center with say Clarkson and Rolston sounds promising. Actually I just looked up his faceoff stats…eh? He only took 371 faceoffs at a absolute horrible 43.1%. Maybe he’s more of a winger then.
by Matthew Ventolo on Jun 8, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
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