Is Free Agency a Sucker's Game?

i agree that those four guys are likely to get even bigger contracts than what i list there, probably up to a million dollars more each. what i list there is what i feel to be an appropriate number for players that really want to win and don’t want to cripple their team with their contract. more often than not, the player underestimates the negative impact that his big contract can have.

when you look at the blackhawks, they have a few GREAT contracts in toews, kane, and keith, who all re-signed together last year (yes, keith’s term is a bit long for my liking). Hossa also signed last year, but his contract is a bad one. In my book, he has to be Hart-worthy to live up to that contract, and he should have known better that his contract will clip the hawks’ wings for many years to come. They will probably be contenders year after year, but it will be because of the contracts that the kids signed, and in spite of the contract that Hossa signed.

Campbell and Huet, on the other hand, were signed to contracts during a period of time under the current CBA where i feel like stars didn’t understand how much of a discount they would have to take in order to make their team a perennial contender. even ovechkin, crosby, and malkin are overpaid by my standard, because they’ve made it really difficult for their franchises to build a better team around them, but like Campbell and Huet they signed their contracts a few years ago when it was less clear how detrimental their contracts would be.

i think i get what you’re saying.

Superstars have to be the top-paid players on the team. It’s not acceptable for a mid-tier player to be making more than the stars of the team. However, superstars have the power to effectively “cap” the maximum salary allowable for any non-superstar player. They set a precedent, an example that signals to the rest of the team that some degree of financial sacrifice may be needed for the sake of winning and I think that peer pressure is very powerful in the locker room, especially for younger players who look up to the veteran superstars. The way superstars make up for their lost wages, however, is in negotiating for long terms, no trade clauses – essentially buying themselves stability.

As long as they stay under the cap hit of the superstars, mid-tier players don’t have to take much of a pay cut. It’s understood that superstars make a lot of money over the course of their careers, especially when you account for endorsements. Mid-tier players, however, may have a shorter career or may have only one opportunity to strike it rich in free agency, and I think their teammates understand that they need to look out for themselves and their families. A little bit of selfishness by those players is probably condoned and simply acknowledged by saying “it’s a business”.

The net effect of this, which I feel is a trend around the league, is that the pay gap between superstars and mid-tier players is shrinking. What I think the prudent GM has to be careful of is that some lesser stars are asking for – and getting – franchise cornerstone-type money. My guess is that kovalchuk and marleau will make awfully similar money this summer. Kovy is 27 years old – if he signs an 8-yr contract, I feel he will probably make an average of 7.5-8.0 per year. If he signs a lifetime contract taking him to age 40 (13 yrs), I feel he will average closer to 6.5-7.0 per year. He could find a team to pay him more, for sure, but i think that those are the numbers he will settle for to play on a good team. Marleau is 30 – i would guess his contract will be something like 7 yrs, 7.0 mil per yr. Let me compare: Kovalchuk plus a league-minimum 4th liner vs Marleau plus a million dollar depth player – I would much rather take Kovalchuk. I think over the course of the next 7 or so years, Kovalchuk will consistently score 40 goals and 80-90 points per year. I think that Marleau, over the same span of time, will score an average of maybe 25-30 goals and 60-70 points per year (higher in the first few years of the contract and lower as the contract ends). Kovalchuk will not be a “bad contract” in the next 7 years, but Marleau will be one within 4 years.

In summary, I think that any team that goes after Marleau before they make an effort to sign Kovalchuk is crazy. Marleau won’t come that much cheaper than Kovy, but Kovy will provide MUCH better value over the course of the contract. I don’t care about whether the team needs a center or a wing – you go for Kovalchuk and ask questions later, trading for a center if you need to.

In saying this, I’m not necessarily advocating that the Devils try to re-sign Kovalchuk. I think the Devils have to have a better plan for integrating Kovalchuk into the lineup than they did this past season before they make a commitment like that. I’m just illustrating the point that superstars in Kovalchuk’s class provide much more value for just about a million dollars more than mere stars like Marleau (who would be an important part of the core of any team, just not the driving force). And superstars like Kovalchuk are rarely available on the free agent market – it’s a once-in-a-decade opportunity and I think the team that signs him will be very lucky.

On the khl – I don’t understand why anyone would say that Kovalchuk is all about the money. If anything, the fact that he turned down Atlanta’s 100-million dollar deal is a huge signal to me that throwing money at him will not work. The man left Atlanta because he wants to win the Stanley Cup, and a KHL championship will just not quench his thirst. I think the KHL is very serious about trying to sign him – I don’t think the feeling is mutual.

Regardless, even if he signed a contract and then bolted to Russia, there’s no way that the NHL would hold the Devils accountable for his cap hit. So if he decided to leave five years down the line, it doesn’t hurt the Devils.

The Devils definitely need a scoring center. I’m not advocating for Kovy’s signing, although I think Kovy will provide great value and the Devils will figure out a way to make it work if it happens. Whether that means some combination of trading for a center, signing a FA center, placing the burden on Josefson to step up, giving up a draft pick to dump Rolston on another team, or trusting Elias and Kovy to make it work, I don’t know. However, I think Marleau and Plekanec will be bad values. I think their cap hits will exceed their production. I have this thing against free agency unless the player is willing to take a discount to play for your team.