Decision Day for Ilya Kovalchuk?
by Tom Stivali on Jul 14, 2010 10:18 AM EDT
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Hey, have you heard that Ilya Kovalchuk is still a free agent?
It's day 14 of the free agent process that has been called Kovygate, Kovy-Sweepstakes and many other things.
Ilya Kovalchuk, 27 is probably the best UFA to hit the market since the lockout and was expected to be quickly snatched up a team once he tested the free agency waters. Well, that hasn't happened yet and with no word from Lou Lamoriello -other than "everything is the same"- every day he is out there unsigned has left many Devils fans anxious for news -one way or the other -on his status. It seems every other fanpost, fanshot or other news has either been Kovalchuk focused or been turned one via the comments section. After news last night that Kovalchuk and his agent Jay Grossman have left Los Angeles without a deal, today could be the day that a decision is finally made. Per Tom Gulitti's early morning post (3AM?) there still seems to be a mutual interest between the Los Angeles Kings and Kovalchuk he also speculates that playing for the Devils is not his first choice.
Whatever the outcome, I know that his status has caused many fans to provide strong opinions of their own (Puck Daddy even calling it a fan hostage crisis) which, when coupled with the numerous 'reports from unidentified sources' has led to a lot of misinformation. So I felt I should go through some of the rumors out there and determine whether they are fact or fiction. After the jump, I will touch upon some of the issues out there, and speculate a little on my own. Also, let's use this post as today's Free Agency Frenzy thread, so feel free to sound off about all things Kovalchuk and any other unrestricted or restricted free agent news out there.
Per John, remember: Please link to any news, do not just say it's on a site or Twitter. Link to the actual story. Standard rules apply, please also pay attention to actual sources, not random comments or untrustworthy places like HockeyBuzz.
Ilya Kovalchuk wants a 10 year/$100MM contract: Right now, fact. At this point, besides the unconfirmed report saying the Islanders were interested in Kovalchuk this has never publically been stated. That said, we all know-via Don Waddell-that he turned down two huge deals earlier in the year when he was still on the Atlanta Thrashers. Helene Elliot of the LA Times has been on this story from the Los Angeles Kings perspective from the start and posted details of the contract negotiations here. Apparently to play for the Kings (think about that for a second) he is unwilling to budge on the money he wants.
If Kovalchuk doesn't sign with the Devils he only cares about money, is greedy and he doesn't really care about winning. Right now, Fiction. This has been the popular fan opinion in the Fire & Ice comment section of every new post, a number of posts/comments here at In Lou We Trust and other spots on the internet. All a potential choice between the Kings and the Devils indicates is that he only has been (or was in the case of the Kings) talking to teams with potential to make a run in the Stanley Cup playoffs. If he signs a huge deal with the KHL or an NHL club that is unlikely to compete for a cup in the near future, then a case could be made that he is chasing the money.
Kovalchuk should have made a decision already. Fiction. I understand that sports fans are impatient, but why do we expect a person to make one of the biggest decisions in his life within a day or even a week! To me, the amazing part of the free agency frenzy in any sport is how quickly these decisions are made.
The Devils have a 17 year/$100MM offer currently on the table to Kovalchuk. Likely Fiction. For the moment that is the current rumor that is out there, speculated on by the NY Post and 'confirmed' by Larry Brooks. Gulitti's post last night says that he hears that there is nothing close to a 17 year offer. Lou Lamoriello likes to be creative with the salary cap, but a 17 year deal doesn't seem like something he would do. Why stop at 17, why not 20 to make the cap hit an even $5MM a year? While Marian Hossa got a 12 year deal, creating precedent in a contract of this type, this rumor seems unbelievable right now. If this is true I can't wait to see if Capgeek shows the Devils cap situation in 2026-2027.
Jay Grossman has lost Kovalchuk a lot of money with his negotiating tactics. Fiction. If Kovalchuk and Grossman were only looking for money and not a winner, he would have signed with Atlanta. I have a hard time believing that Puck Agency didn't analyze the market and realize that there were not going to be many suitors for a big UFA signing this year. The Kings were long rumored to be in the running for Kovalchuk, but when analyzing their salary cap situation it's obvious they couldn't pay Kovalchuk a similar amount to what the Thrashers offered. Very few teams, because of internal cap constraints could pay him what Atlanta offered him. Quisp of Jewels From The Crown analyzed this early on here and I would like to think Grossman did this as well.
The Tweet Grossman sent out last Monday gave the impression that Kovy's decision was imminent. Fact. While his wording can be taken to mean a few different things, it seemed clear that Kovalchuk's free agency decision had been made last Monday, July 5th. It was later speculated that Grossman made those statements to drive up other offers, but it could also be that Kovalchuk got cold feet and reversed his decision.
Kovalchuk re-signing with the Devils will impact the re-signing of Zach Parise. Fact. In a recent post by Gulitti he speculates on the impact of a Kovalchuk signing on the team's salary cap for next year (and for a great analysis of this year's cap situation should Kovalchuk re-sign check out this FanPost by FrankG929) and reports that there might not be enough money to re-sign Parise to a long-term extension. Lamoriello has stated that all the negotiations with Kovalchuk have been conducted with a player of Parise's stature in mind. While Kovalchuk would be a great player to have, it should NOT be at the cost of re-signing Parise. That said, it would be nice to know that Parise plans to commit to the Devils long term as well.
Kovalchuk would like to play for the Devils. Fact. If we are to believe his statements after the season, he was impressed by the organization and the fact that the Devils are still in the running shows that he would play in New Jersey.
Kovalchuk would like to play for the Kings. Fact. If he has entertained them as possible destinations as many times as he has it seems to be a good bet that he would like to play there.
Yes, he can consider two places at one time and weigh them out differently with whatever pro/con list he is using. (As an aside, I would pull "the LeBron" and choose a team in a state with no state income tax, but that's me) Each team offers different benefits and detrements. While Helene Elliot speculates that if he goes to the Devils he is looking for the money (never thought I would read that before) and that the Kings are in a better position to win a Stanley Cup, I would respectfully disagree. If Kovalchuk is looking for a team with a history of organizational success then the Devils are the clear choice. Since 1993-1994 the Kings have won a total of 12 playoff games, and have only visited the playoffs once in the last 7 seasons. They have a lot of young talented stars, but that does not always equal success.
Granted, I did my own bit of speculation above, but most of it seems logical. After the latest falling out with the Kings, New Jersey will be rumored to be the leading contender to land him but what are the likely issues that may be holding up a deal?
Money-Discussed above, the salary cap limits the money Kovalchuk can earn per year and teams can only dedicate so much to one player. Especially one that hasn't been past the first round of the playoffs.
Term-Kovalchuk really has three options. 1. One year deal, with a contender preferably, so that he can make a cup run (like Marian Hossa) and try the market again next year. 2. Short term deal that allows him to re-enter the free agent market either before or after the current collective bargaining agreement passes. 3. Long term deal that allows him to get the money he wants but also locks him up for what is likely the rest of his career.
That said, if I got to be in Jay Grossman's shoes for a day, I think I would want a 6-7 year deal for at least $50MM. That would take Kovalchuk to around 34 years of age which would give him one more payday with a 4/5 year contract that could be front loaded. That way a the team could buy him out at a cheap price or not incur any penalty should he retire. If there would be no suitable offers in the NHL he would still attract big money overseas in the KHL or a European Elite league provided that no drastic erosion in skills or a career threatening injury takes place.
Collective Bargaining Agreement-I am sure Grossman, like many other agents, is looking at a possible work stoppage to see how that may affect his client and doing whatever he can (like a good agent should) to ensure that his client doesn't lose a significant amount of money should there be a lockout. Why the concern? What if a new CBA allowed for special buyout provisions to nullify a deal?
Regardless of what you think about the Devils re-signing Kovalchuk, you can't argue the fact that this has been a fun offseason. I have personally wasted so much time on Capgeek with all the possible salary options, my head is spinning.
So since the Kings and Kovalchuk are now at a standstill, I would expect a decision to be made soon, so sound off below! Do you think Kovalchuk should go short term and test the market again in a few years? Do you think Jay Grossman has represented his client correctly? Will the Kings give it another shot at Kovalchuk, thereby making Helene Elliot one of the most followed Twitter accounts in the hockey world?
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Ilya Kovalchuk wants a 10 year/$100MM contract: Right now, fact.
Very few teams, because of internal cap constraints could pay him what Atlanta offered him. Quisp of Jewels From The Crown analyzed this early on here and I would like to think Grossman did this as well.
I feel like these two things don’t match up…
Sure, it takes a while to make this life-altering decision. But it’s been two weeks, and he had considerable time to ponder this even before he hit the market on July 1st. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that some of the hold-up has been waiting/hoping to be offered more money.
I also don’t think choosing either club means he doesn’t care about winning a Cup. Both are very fine organizations. And I don’t see how the Kings’ past will lock them into an inescapable pattern of failure — the point is the future. That’s just my two cents.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
I don’t necessarily think that the the Kings won’t have success in the future (I think their cap situation with or without Kovalchuk is going to be a detriment to them) but you can’t assume they will nor can you assume that the Devils “aging” roster can’t have success either.
by Tom Stivali on Jul 14, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree, which is why I said both are very fine organizations. I just seemed like in your rebuttal of Elliott’s claim was more of an attack on the Kings’ chances (“If Kovalchuk is looking for a team with a history of organizational success then the Devils are the clear choice”).
In Dinglebarn We Trust
It was more of a commentary on her rationale of Kovy choosing the Kings over the Devils.
by Tom Stivali on Jul 14, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I think their cap situation with or without Kovalchuk is going to be a detriment to them
Also, what do you mean by this?
In Dinglebarn We Trust
Looking at their roster and cap situation for next year, I think they can quickly eat up all of their cap space with all of the big ticket RFA/UFA and entry level deals.
by Tom Stivali on Jul 14, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel our management is well aware of this, thus they won’t give Kovalchuk all the money he wants. But we have more cap space than many other teams at this point, and some contracts come off the books as well (Handzus, Stoll). Are you saying we have a huge problem? Because Quisp has done posts on quite a few potential rosters going forward, and I feel that is an exaggeration. Or, at the very least, it’s no different from the problems the Devils will face going forward.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
I actually think the Kings have a better Cap situation than the Devils regarding a long-term contract for Kovalchuk. Extending Doughty is the priority, just like extending Parise is for us. We both have large contracts coming off the books next year (Arnott, Langenbrunner and Handzus, Stoll) that are pretty equal. The biggest different is that LA has $10MM more Cap room right now, than the Devils do.
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
Oh, I would much rather the Devils be in the Kings cap situation. X1000. It is clearly something Lombardi is conscious of and is playing a role in negotiations. That said, they have $30MM dedicated to 9 players. They have to sign Simmonds/Doughty/Johnson. Can we say $2.5MM/$6.5MM/$2.5MM conservatively that they would get? That’s $41MM with 12 guys signed. For arguments sake if Schenn/Hickey are on the NHl team next year you add in $4.5MM to take you to $45.5MM with 14 players, 9 spaces to fill and ideally you still want a left winger right? So while $14MM-$17MM (maybe the cap moves up another $2MM) for 9 spaces to fill is not bad, if you make some signings this year either for Kovy or another LW, the money erodes quickly. 2012-2013 you get Ryan Smyth off the books, which is huge so that will be helpful down the road.
That said, I can quickly analyze their cap situation but you can better analyze their needs. Obviously a LW is something they are looking for, what else do the Kings need. I always have been a fan, I think I may even have an old Kelly Hrudey jersey somewhere.
If you really want a detailed run-down of the kinds of choices that would be made, this is a good post by Quisp here. Of course, it’s based on the assumption that we’d give Kovalchuk a contract with a $10MM cap hit; I really think $7MM is our max, and even that is a tight squeeze. But you can still get the big picture from it.
Obviously, even if we don’t sign Kovalchuk, someone will be moved. Stoll, Williams, and Handzus aren’t likely to be kept (though I’d love to keep Handzus if he goes for a lower contract…one can dream). Kids will be promoted. Quisp does question whether or not DL will be comfortable spending Schenn’s bonus, because that really hurt Chicago in the end, but Dean has indicated in interviews that Schenn’s bonuses are such that he does not expect them to be reached — so I’d say he’s comfy spending that cushion.
One thing that the Kings have never had under past GMs is a long-term plan. Now we have one: sign the young core, expect more prospects to be promoted in waves, and shed other players as necessary. The bottom line is that we will be tight up against the cap, but so will every other team that’s a contender in this league. It is imperative to manage it well. Based on numerous interviews, I can say DL is extremely conscious of that.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
Thanks for the link. Wow, it looks like even at $7MM there would be issues next year, huh. And of course, probably the biggest question is how much does Doughty actually get.
When I look at a well put together team like the Kings I am hopeful in the next CBA there are provisions to exceed cap amounts to retain your own drafted players, giving the home team an ‘advantage’ over a new team.
already grumblings that the owners want a lower cap…$48M is the number I’ve heard tossed around. New CBA could mean a lot of headaches for a lot of teams. A “home system” advantage is an intriguing idea. I like it a lot.
I mean, I don’t want indentured servitude, and I believe in the free market system but there should be some benefit/advantage to drafting correctly. A player shouldn’t have to take less to stay with his current team but the team should be capable of offering more.
Is RFA status by age or experience? I would hope by experience because look at Parise vs Kovalchuk. One started in the league at 18/19 when Parise was (I think) 22 or 23.
A generic cap + say, $10M of additional cap space for guys that went through your development system or spent enough time with your minor league team…I could get behind that.
Which is basically, the Franchise Tag in the NFL, without the ‘Draft’ or ‘development’ stance, which I agree with Murdoc. That one player does not count against your Cap. So for us, we could sign Kovalchuk for X amount, and next year, re-sign Parise for the average of the Top 5 LW’s in the game and it NOT count against our Cap.
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
They have that in the NBA
in the form of the “”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Salary_Cap#Larry_Bird_exception" >Bird Rule", which allows teams to go over the salary cap to re-sign their own free agents, as well as the ability to offer them more money and longer contracts. (No contract in the NBA can be longer than 6 years)
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
The Bird Exception has its good points and its bad points. It was designed with the idea that let teams should be able to keep their own superstars and not worry about the salary cap destroying an otherwise good team. Alas, its implementation hasn’t quite gone that way. For a long time, we’ve seen teams use it to re-sign marginal players, and only the more recent implementation of a luxury tax has brought that thinking back down for most teams (but not the super-rich). Also, the exception has been even more bastardized by the creation of sign-and-trade deals, where a team would sign its own guy and promptly trade him.
I wouldn’t want to see the Bird exception come to the NHL, because I think it would only benefit the uber-rich clubs and damage the leveling of the playing field created by the hard cap in the first place. I do think limits on contract length will show up in the next CBA, as a way to close the loophole of disguising a cap hit with a monster-length contract.
The Bird exception also has its own exceptions, which makes it near-impossible to enforce as it was intended, as acasser points out. Id rather take a model of a Salary structure that works, like the NFL, rather than the NBA.
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
I don’t know that I’d call the NFL’s structure that wonderful, either. There are more workarounds in that “hard cap” than I can count…. and the compensation system is very different based on non-guaranteed contracts.
Of all the sports, I like the NHL’s system the best. It just has several spots it can be improved. Term on contract has to be addressed, and I suspect it will in the next CBA. I’d like to see fewer NTCs and NMCs…. although I’m not sure how you’d go about getting that into the discussion. I’d like to see it made harder to bury dollars off-cap, whether by using LongTerm Injured Reserve, the Minors, or buying out excessive numbers of players — GMs should have to live with their mistakes.
Agreed
I think though, if we are taking any Salary structure cues from any League, it would be the NFL.
I agree, it seems there is more simplicity with the NHL’s than any other League. However, there is an issue (like you say) with LTIR, length of terms, etc. But I do think having a ‘Franchise’ tag of sorts, if it was tied to teams own draftees, would be hugely beneficial without wreaking havoc on our Salary Cap structure.
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
The problem with a “franchise” tag is threefold. First, it punishes teams that didn’t draft well, or teams that trade their draft picks for more immediate help (as good teams are wont to do) — being a team that sucks is punishment enough, in my opinion. Second, it can get a little more cost-prohibitive if other teams sign players to stupid contracts — if your “franchise” tag is based on the average of the top 10 contracts in the league (to pull an example out of my rear end), that number inflates if someone is signed to a stupid huge deal. Finally, it gives another advantage to the large markets, because it will let them circumvent the cap when teams with more restrictive budgets will never be able to do the same.
How about an “amended” franchise tag? Teams can tag the player, under the conditions you’ve laid out, and he becomes a restricted free agent, although one without any draft-pick compensation. If the tagging team chooses to match, the player has a zero cap value for that team only. In addition, a team may not tag a second player so long as the first tagged player remains on the roster.
A more concrete example: say Pittsburgh uses this hypothetical tag on Sidney Crosby. Crosby is removed from their cap (although he would be restricted to the individual cap on his salary), but so long as Crosby is a Pengiun, the team cannot tag anyone else (like Malkin, Staal, Fleury).
Also under this amended tag, a team could trade their tagged player (and free up use of the franchise tag in the future)…. but the receiving team has to be able to fit him in under their cap, and the tagging team has to be able to fit in any players they take back under their cap.
You could get the NHLPA to go along with it, because it would inflate the top-end salaries. You could get the big markets to go for it, because they can use it to push their payroll past the cap. And the small markets could take advantage of the matching rights to try and keep an elite player from marching off to greener pastures, thus rewarding them for draft and development. At the same time, not being able to use a tag every year (like the NFL) means a GM has to be very careful in who gets it.
Done
I agree with you on the amended Franchise Tag. It needs to be tied to that team’s Drafted players.
If teams draft poorly, in my opinion, that should be their problem.
GM’s paying stupid amounts to their players does hurt other small-market GM’s, but Im sure the players would love it! Surely though, this would force more GM’s to make prudent decisions, wouldnt it?
For large markets, or small markets, so be it. It will be a way for all to circumvent the Cap, that’s kind of the point. Team’s that draft those players, no matter the market in which they play, should be exempt from the Cap.
I really like the RFA compensation deal.
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
I think what should be done is that a player cant take up as much cap as they currently can. I forget what percentage a team is allowed to give a player whats it 20% now? Maybe lower it to like 12 or 15 percent.
by KingHellfire on Jul 15, 2010 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Good luck convincing the players to take less money per player than they currently do. What concession do the GMs make in return?
Come to think of it, I have one other amendment I would make to the “franchise” tag. Rather than stipulate it as a “player drafted by the club”, I’d stipulate it at “a player who has played his whole NHL career with the club”. In addition to rewarding a team for drafting well, it can reward a team who found a diamond in the rough by way of an undrafted UFA (think Greene and Clarkson), but it also prevents a team from trading away a player, re-acquiring him, and declaring him their cornerstone. The latter, to me, seems open to potential abuse.
Cut-off
What would be the cutoff for the amended ‘Drafted’ players? Would they be allowed to play in the Minors with another team, or signed to an NHL contract but be playing overseas or something?
Seems like you should take this idea and run with it acasser
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
The NTCs and NMCs are sometimes valuable lures for less desirable teams to lure free agents with… I see no problem with them at all.
If they become problems, as you say, GMs should have to live with their mistakes.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
How about the ability to ‘Franchise’ a player (like the NFL) as long as that team drafted said player.
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
That is another big question mark — we don’t even know what the CBA will look like in two years, and Dean is planning five years ahead and beyond. It seems that that is a big sticking point in the Kovy negotiations. The cap might even go down.
I think we all know we can’t keep all of the kiddos, and much as we’re attached to them. Personally, I wouldn’t mind shipping Jack Johnson off, but who knows. That’s what the farm system is for.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
This may be a pretty fair analysis, but
I don’t see any team, in North America or Russia, that will actually offer $100M. If he goes to the KHL, he may make his $45M or whatever it is, and if he tries to come back after 4-5 years, does he really think an NHL team is going to ink him to the remaining 5-6 years at $55-60M? I sincerely doubt it, no matter what kind of stats he puts up in Russia. The bottom line, to me, is that he is not going to Russia…even his mother requested that he stay here, he has three young children.
Now the LA Kings are in an interesting position. Consider this, LA equals Chicago. That is no breaking analysis at all. Kovalchuk equals Marian Hossa, as Hossa has scored 40 goals in a season three times, and is a far better two-way forward, so in terms of goal-differential, Hossa may be a better player. Kovalchuk, as well documented, is a career minus-75. Now the Kings have around $17M of cap right now, according to nhlnumbers.com, which is updated. They lost Frolov (obviously that is where Kovy fits into their lineup), but they are also short three forwards from last year, and right now, are still short at least one defenseman, with the looming contract negotiations of Doughty, Johnson and Simmonds (they have additional free agents, but those three are all in for significant raises). If you add Kovalchuk’s cap hit and LA should succeed next season, then they become the Blackhawks and will be unloading players, because Doughty alone will demand at least a $7M raise from his sub-1M salary now.
Now call me crazy but I think the Devils could work this out. First of all, he knows that the Devils will always be a contender, in the post-Brodeur era, just remember how Scott Clemmensen jumped in and won 25 games for us, so I wouldn’t be too concerned about goaltending. Lou will grab someone cheap if not give McKenna and Frazee a shot. The Parise situation is getting blown out of proportion. Arnott and Langenbrunner are doubtful returns beyond the 2010-11 season, that is likely. Arnott and Langenbrunner have 4.5M and 2.8M cap hits respectively, and who are our replacements for those players? It is likely that rookies like Josefson and Tedenby may be top-6 ready by 2011-12 with Henrique around the corner as well. Parise, who currently adds around $3.1M with his hit can add Arnott’s salary to his and have a $7.6M cap hit and salary annually, whether it is front-loaded or not.
Will Lou have to move parts for this season? Absolutely, but Zubrus and Salvador may do the trick. After the 2011-12 season, Rolston ($5M) and Brodeur ($5.2M) come off the cap. Patrik Elias comes off one year after that ($6M cap hit). The only aspect that might complicate things is that the 2011 off-season seems to be the “year of the defenseman,” as names like Kaberle, Chara and plenty of others become unrestricted, and even more are restricted. Lou might want to grab one and re-sign Greene, we’ll see.
Yankees in baseball, Giants in football and Devils in hockey. It's that simple. I have no off-season.
In regards to Kovy he has to decide does he want 10 million from a noncontending team or 7 with a team that can win it all.
by KingHellfire on Jul 14, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Kovy’s issue is that if he takes a pay cut now then he will never get a bigger offer again. He is in his prime. He wants to either win a cup or at least get paid if that fails to happen.
Even a 1 or 2 year deal won’t be cheap but it opens up options for him where teams can bring him in for a shorter time and then not have to worry about losing other younger prospects after his contract is up. In our case, that is not an option. It is not worth signing him for 1 year while losing guys like Zubrus, Zharkov (which I think is talented) and likely others, plus draft picks in potential trades. Lou should play the poker game now and give a time frame for Kovy to respond or just move on (unless Lou’s moved on already)
I suffer from selective short term amnesia and have chosen to forget about the 2010 post season.
by Devil_Hard_Core on Jul 14, 2010 11:29 AM EDT reply actions
Kovalchuk is my favorite player. I definitely want him to sign with the Devils. I think one issue Kovalchuk has with the Devils is that he doesn’t have a C to play with like Kopitar. Zajac is our best guy and he is going to play with Parise most likely.
Kovalchuk will still be my favorite player even if he signs with the kings, but I am hoping that somehow we luck out and get him for a good deal.
I love Parise, but Kovalchuk is A LOT better player than him. Put Kovalchuk in the Devils lineup or Kings for an entire season and he is going to be MVP favorite with the likes of Crosby/Ovie for years to come.
I love Parise, but Kovalchuk is A LOT better player than him.
They’re very different kinds of players, and it entirely depends on what kind of player you consider “better”. Kovalchuk is a singular talent that will get you 40+ goals and play heavy minutes on the PP. Parise will get you 30+ goals, back-check with the best of them, play on the PP and the PK and wear down opposing defenders who have to keep up with his dogged presence on the boards and around the net.
Parise makes his teammates better, while Kovalchuk defies the odds and maintains a ridiculously high shooting percentage.
Having both would be keen, but if I had to choose one, Parise passes both the eye test and the advanced stat test… he’s the better player.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
When Kovalchuk was on the Devils last season I don’t think there was a moment when he wasn’t the best player on the ice for us.
Parise is great. There is a big gap from Parise and the next best devil, but Kovalchuk is better without a doubt IMO.
The other teams best defense pairing will be on the ice when Kovalchuk line is out if we are lucky enough to have both of them.
Yes Kovalchuk is more dynamic, and a ‘sniper’ if you will, who certainly has the talent to realistically score 50+ goals every season. But I cannot understand how that makes him
the best player on the ice for us.
Parise is not flashy, but he gets the job done. Check out those stats that elesias posted right above, and you will see that Parise is a more complete player than Kovalchuk, even if Kovy is the better offensive player.
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
Kovalchuk has never been asked to back-check for Russia or Atlanta. Who is to say he can’t be decent on the defensive side of the puck.
Also Kovalchuk wears down the defense just as much as Parise. He is an unmovable object when with the puck.
Ovechkin was a -19 the season before he became +28, +8, +45. I have no doubt Kovalchuk becoming a +25 players on the Devils.
Who is to say he can’t be decent on the defensive side of the puck.
No one. But at 27 it’s not like he’s going to suddenly turn into a major 2-way threat. He is what his training and natural skills have made him.
Also Kovalchuk wears down the defense just as much as Parise. He is an unmovable object when with the puck.
Going to have to disagree with you here again. Parise will fight in the corners and along the boards and jockey for position in front of the net, whereas Kovalchuk earns his pay carrying the puck into the zone and angling for a slap/wrist shot.
If you were a defenseman, which do you think would tire you out faster, leaning into a guy and digging for a puck shift after shift or doing your best to take time and space away from a guy?
And, I don’t know where you get “unmovable” from. I recall countless instances of watching Kovalchuk trying to beat 3 or 4 players by himself and getting easily knocked off the puck.
Ovechkin was a -19 the season before he became +28, +8, +45. I have no doubt Kovalchuk becoming a +25 players on the Devils.
Ovechkin was also 21 and in only his 2nd year when he made that change. Frankly, I don’t see how it’s relevant anyway. They’re two different kinds of players, so they’re not really comparable, unless you’re trying to argue from a “an old dog can learn new tricks” stance, in which case the age and experience difference quash that.
Kovalchuk could become a +25 on the Devils, but that doesn’t make him more of a complete player… it just demonstrates that the Devils are more defensively responsible than Atlanta was.
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That is true, he hasnt been asked to back-check in Atlanta. I do believe he can be a decent defensive player (as I think he showed in the games he played with us.) I do not believe he can be (and more importantly, wants to be) a great defensive player. The reason Parise makes his teammates better is because he thrives when working with his teammates. Kovalchuk is most dangerous when he has the puck on his stick, and considerably less so when he does not.
The argument that he wears the defense down as much as Parise is debateable, but I suppose it turns on how you define ‘wearing down the defense.’ With physical work, I think Parise is more dangerous to opposing defenses. With ‘mental’ work, I suppose Kovalchuk would be more dangerous because of his well-deserved reputation as a gamebreaker.
I agree with you, Kovalchuk would be a + player on the Devils, +25 I think would be a reach, but it could happen.
But nothing in Kovalchuk’s past play, nor his limited play with New Jersey shows us that he would be as complete a player as Parise.
Call me greedy I guess, I want both.
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
he was a plus 8 in a third of season with us, add the other 2/3 and he is at +24.
by KingHellfire on Jul 14, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Again, it depends on your definition of “best.” If scoring goals makes you the best, then you have an argument. If you look at any other statistic, then the scale tips towards Parise.
There is no doubt that Kovalchuk is more electrifying and can be very fun to watch. His impact on the crowd and attendance is undeniable, but that doesn’t make someone a better player… it makes them a better financial asset… and is, I believe, a big part of why Lou continues to chase him.
The other teams best defense pairing will be on the ice when Kovalchuk line is out if we are lucky enough to have both of them.
Not true. Kovalchuk played against weaker competition because other teams had their best players out against ZZPops.
Langenbrunner led the team in QUALCOMP with .110. Followed by Parise with .099. Followed in third place by Zajac with .069. Kovalchuk was in 9th place with .033.
Granted, that’s for the season and includes his 49 games with Atlanta as there is no way I know of to split up his stats, but if anything, being the top threat as a Thrasher should actually raise his QUALCOMP, so if anything, .033 is higher than it should be for his time as a Devil.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
How is QUALCOMP derived?
I would guess that since Altanta is in a much weaker divison than the devils and the fact that Ilya doesn’t play the PK his QUALCOMP would be lower. (this would be a complete guess since I have no idea what is QUALCOMP)
QUALCOMP is a measurement of the Quality of Competition a player sees on the ice – if he tends to play against opponents’ top lines, his QUALCOMP will be higher. Behind the Net has a longer, better explanation of how it’s calculated.
At least in my understanding, since a player’s quality is determined by relative +/- (which calculates the player’s +/- relative to the team average), QUALCOMP is insulated from the quality of TEAM competition. In theory, the best players on the Caps would have similar relative +/- numbers as the best players on the Leafs, since the team +/- between the two clubs is so different.
while i like the idea of QUALCOMP and try to use it in situations like this, it has a number of problems, namely that checking lines are considered inferior competition. this happens to be true, but it doesn’t really reflect the fact that the opposing coach feels that this is the best line to go against the opponent’s top line.
lemaire was often matching the zajac line against the opponent’s top line at the end of last season, this would obviously raise their QUALCOMP.
Because they probably spent more time playing against opponent’s checking lines, which, as Triumph44 pointed out, are not rated as highly.
Believe me, I’m the last person who will argue that stats tell the whole story and will rest on some numbers to prove a point, but they are what they are. The guy who comes up with them isn’t just making this stuff up. His work is digested by mathematical and analytical minds that I don’t even pretend to come close to, and he must be doing something right because his data is used by… well, by everyone.
The QUALCOMP is just one aspect of the argument. If you want to discredit advanced stats because they don’t agree with your perception then you’re just being stubborn. If you have an honest disagreement with how the formulae are derived, take it up with Gabe… I’m sure he’d love to know that he’s wrong and there is a better way of doing things.
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IMO, all stats have problems, but in this case I think it helps illustrate numerically what most everyone already sees with their eyes.
While the issue is further confounded by not being able to separate his 49 games in Atlanta from his 27 games in NJ, I think the large numerical difference demonstrates, discrepancies aside, that Kovalchuk wasn’t playing against other team’s top defensive pairs.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
Let me play Devils advocate (I love saying that). You also have to look at Kovy’s qualities of teammates ratio which was less in the last few years than Parise’s. Also, we like to look at GVT so when comparing GVT like John did here they were relatively close in total GVT right? Let’s negate the Shootout GVT because that is a skills competition and it doesn’t effect in game action. When adjusted for that Kovy is 19.5 GVT last year and Parise is 21.6 GVT. The other glaring difference is dGVT as Zach had a 5.9 dGVT (it looks like 6.3 is listed in the article so they are only .7 gvt apart) while Kovalchuk has a 3.7 dGVT, but 2.2 in his 27 games in NJ. Look at the Devils forwards dGVT here and Atlanta’s forwards here.
Don’t you think a case could be made that Kovy’s defensive GVT and overall GVT would go up playing with a defensively responsible club like the Devils? Also, wouldn’t his quality of teammates be different as well?
by Tom Stivali on Jul 14, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the reason for the back and forth here on this issue is the comment
I love Parise, but Kovalchuk is A LOT better player than him.
Without that comment, we are all agreeing on the pros of both Kovalchuk and Parise, and that we would all love to have both of them on the Devils.
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
I still stand by that comment.
Kovalchuk one of the best talents in the game. I can’t imagine the amount of goals he would create if we played with a C as good as Backstrom like Ovie.
You’re entitled to your opinion, but there’s more to being a great player than pure goal scoring ability.
The fact that we’ll likely never agree on what makes a player “better” is precisely why I typically avoid these kinds of conversations.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
That said, to back up your argument check out behindthenet.ca It is great for advanced stat information to help you build a case. Also, what is your definition of ‘a lot’. Is Kovalchuk, in your opinion on par or better than Ovi and Crosby?
by Tom Stivali on Jul 14, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Kovalchuk is on par with Ovi and Crosby. Maybe giving Crosby the slight edge because of his line mates.
My definition of "a lot " would be around 5 Goal differential. If they both had the same line mates then I think Ilya’s line would have around 5 more Goal differential than Parise.
Now you’re just talking crazy.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
Because he’s not.
You’re perfectly entitled to your opinion, but don’t dispute facts and data with an opinion and expect to be taken seriously.
We get that you like the guy, but it’s clouding your judgment.
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by elesias on Jul 14, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Now is your chance to back it up Ty. Do some research, make a fanpost and prove us wrong. That said, I think you are talking crazy as well.
I would love too but Hockey is a lot harder to evaluate with stats than Baseball. The player’s linemates makes a big difference on the players stats.
Ah, so then we’ll just have to take your word for it, eh?
That’s a cop out. If you make a claim, the onus is on you to back it up.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
I am not trying to make you believe what I believe. I am just stating my opinion.
I am basing my opinion from what I have seen over the years of watching hockey.
Quality of Linemates = QualTeam
Or use DobberHockey to see who Kovy played with a lot.
But yeah, I’ve seen Kovalchuk a lot for years from his time in Atlanta. Parise is just better.
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by red army line on Jul 14, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
My reason for disagreeing is the simple fact that Parise and Kovalchuk play a different style. They both are premier players when it comes to what they do best. From a heart and determination stand point Parise is the clear winner you watch his clips and you can clearly see it. As far as pure goal scoring i think Kovy takes the edge. Now if i had to pick one I go with number 9 10 times out of 10.
by KingHellfire on Jul 15, 2010 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I guess with guys like Semin, Frolov, Kovalev, Kovalchuk, Zherdev, Mike Richards, Parise, etc, the work ethic and focus is such a large part of their game—an intangible—that makes them better. I don’t think it’s negligible, nor something that really can be easily learned.
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by red army line on Jul 15, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I know that, but if we are going to pick apart Kovy’s game using advanced stats, can’t we at least entertain the idea that Parise is helped by the team he plays for and talk about that? Plus, everyone agrees that there are pros and cons but I would think most here believe Parise is better.
by Tom Stivali on Jul 14, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
The advanced stats are supposed to, by their nature, separate the player from his teammates and show their individual contributions.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
Are you reading the correct page?
From the above link:
Relative +/- adjusts a player’s on-ice +/- relative to his team’s +/- while he was off the ice. In general, it corrects for the boost players get from playing on a good offensive team and vice-versa.
If we average that rating across all of a player’s opponents, weighting for how much time they played against one another, then we have an estimate of how good a player’s opponents were relative to their teams.
It has nothing to do at all with line mates or division.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
Not to mention alot of Kovalchuks goals come on the powerplay which doesn’t help your plus/minus at all.
by KingHellfire on Jul 14, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
ok, one more time, emphasis mine:
Relative +/- adjusts a player’s on-ice +/- RELATIVE TO HIS TEAM’S +/- while he was off the ice. In general, it corrects for the boost players get from playing on a good offensive team and vice-versa.
If we average that rating across all of a player’s opponents, weighting for how much time they played against one another, then we have an estimate of how good a player’s opponents were relative to their teams.
How does that take into effect Strength of Schedule?
In the EAST Montreal had the highest with a .01
Washington had the lowest with a -.16
In the West Nashville had the highest with .10
Calgary had the lowest with a .02
Are you being deliberately obtuse?
Strength of schedule and division and what color their underwear was have absolutely no bearing on the statistic. It’s relative to the other players on his team who have the same schedule and travel conditions and rink bias and whatever other factor you might wish to bring up.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
I have no idea what the QUALCOMP is suppose to tell me.
Crosby has a .06 QUALCOMP. The same as Carcillo and Ruuto.
Jay Padolfo has a QUALCOMP of .036 the same as Hossa.
it’s right in the name – it tells you the QUALITY of COMPETITION a player faces while on the ice. It’s not an indication of how good a player is, or how many goals he scores, or even whether he wears boxers or briefs. All it says is who the guy plays against – players with GOOD +/- relative to their team, or POOR +/- relative to their team.
apples and oranges
it’s impossible to compare Parise and Kovalchuk because their games are so different. Kovalchuk scores from the slot or the point, Parise scores from down low. Kovy takes players one-on-one, Parise battles in the corners. You could make the argument that apples IN GENERAL are better than oranges, but it’s gonna be reeeeally hard to back up a statement like ‘A LOT better player’ with anything other than conjecture.
Personally, I like apples AND oranges – if the price is right.
What? You totally can compare Parise and Kovalchuk
They play the same position and are used in scoring roles. Sure, they play different styles, but you can compare what happens when they’re on the ice. Parise has a more complete game than Kovalchuk.
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by John Fischer on Jul 14, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it’s kind of not comparable (like AO and Sid) but Parise is plenty ahead of Kovalchuk, with goal scoring upside in the same atmosphere and a much better defensive game.
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by red army line on Jul 14, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Parise has a more complete game than Kovalchuk.
yes – but Kovalchuk is a more gifted scorer. The point I was trying to make is that while they both play the same position, they are two different kinds of players in terms of the manner in which they earn their pay on the ice, beyond statistics.
Don’t get me wrong – if I were drafting a team from scratch I’d pick Parise over Kovy every day and twice on Sunday, but I think those who DO believe Kovy is the better player say so not because of results but because they value his KIND of player – skill, speed, score – more than Parise’s. And the value of a KIND of player like Kovy is really hard to quantify versus the KIND of player like Parise.
Well put Richer44
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
Lets not forget Parise nearly hit the 50 goal plateau in the 08-09 season. And also unlike Kovalchuk he will battle in the dirty areas as one of Johns prior posts explains nearly 80 percent of his goals are off rebounds and near the net.
by KingHellfire on Jul 14, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Kovy is a better natural scorer, but the fact that he goes for the finesse goals and isnt all that helpful in the defensive zone is why many ppl regard Parise as a better player. Parise can score finesse goals and he can score the hard fought dirty goals plus he is extremely useful on the PK and in the D zone. I really like Kovy, but Parise is the more useful player that the Devils need.
by Jacob Shepherd on Jul 14, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Kovy would break 80 points with Arnott at center. He’s the big, smart, experienced center beside whom a shooter like Kovy would excel beside. Add the threat of a healthy Elias on the other side, and the line would be just as deadly as Parise’s line, but not in the same style.
Zajac is the best center on the team for Parise. Arnott is best for Kovy.
And when Arnott is done with the team, Henrique and/or Tedenby will be ready for the job, both of which are more than capable of feeding a shooter. Ask Mr. Hall.
I think Salvador would be easiest to move cause I think many teams are in need of a decent stay at home dman. Teams such as Columbus, Dallas, Atlanta, Islanders. I’m sure there are others as well.
by KingHellfire on Jul 14, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Ottawa
I was on Silver Seven and proposed a Salvador for Kuba trade, and they seemed to be happy with that trade.
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
Some one send Lou a message then!
There is nothing quite as satisfying as out running security after you've punched out a Flyers fan!
Yeah, really!
Any theoretical team that includes Kovy would, almost by default, have to depend upon the departure of Salvador and Zubrus. There’s just not enough money. In addition, you are probably looking at the necessity of getting creative with one ore more NTC and/or “bad” contracts, and by creative, I mean tossing in some prospects to make it worth the effort to the other team. The whole NHL knows that if he comes here, they’ve got Lou bent over the couch using our finest prospects as lube. Haven’t we already given up enough for Kovy? If keeping him means I’m losing Henrique, Tedenby, Josephson, Corrente, Fraser, Eckford or Urbom, then it’s not worth it.
At this point, I’m fully prepared to say Hasta Luego to Mr. Kovy.
Yes, Ive given up on Kovy coming here, the trade scenario of Salvador and Kuba adds money to our Cap, it certainly wouldnt be a trade to make after signing Kovalchuk.
I think the trade makes sense for us, and it makes sense for Ottawa as well, especially since they can shed $800K in salary.
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
and from Kovy’s perspective, I can see how he might not feel the Devils are serious. “Hmmm, they have to move players to make room for me there. If they wait until preseason, it’s a scramble to fit me under the cap, and they could lose some of the guys that will help me win for the rest of my career. If they do it now, maybe something closer to a fair trade could happen. Maybe they don’t really want me there. I mean, they are just kinda sitting htere, staring at me while I figure this out. Maybe if they, ya know, made room now…”
I like the trade a lot, especially because it’s Ottawa. Some familiar scenery for Android would be a good thing I think. And it gets us another 800k closer. while filling a perceived need.
Hmmm, maybe Lou and Kovalchuk have already discussed what might have to be done, they understand that, know what is on the table from the Devils and can fall back on that any time after finding out they’re not going to get a better offer?
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Lets not forget the otherside of this teams are aware of our cap constraints making trades harder to come by. Plus I don’t think any team wants us to sign Kovy especially with our d being better than last year least not eastern conference teams.
by KingHellfire on Jul 15, 2010 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Let me translate:
Kovalchuk has a lot more natural talent than Parise. If Ty had said that would there have been 50 follow-up points?
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Maybe 2 or 3 points, hehe. As I mentioned before
Without that comment, we are all agreeing on the pros of both Kovalchuk and Parise, and that we would all love to have both of them on the Devils.
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
Kovalchuk will not get 10yrs/100m
He simply lacks the leverage in a salary capped NHL. Only two contenders are showing interest, The only other teams with such cap space are non-playoff teams such as the Islanders.
I really enjoyed seeing Kovalchuk in a Devils sweater, and would love to see what he can do over the course of a full season (especially considering that the Devils were not firing on all cylinders as a team, post-new years), I do think he seems like a better fit for the Kings, however, as they need a top-line LW. The Devils are stacked at LW with Parise, Elias, and soon Tedenby, who should eventally take Elias’ place at 2nd line LW.
Another thing to consider is what we would have to give up to ship Zubrus and Salvador. Every team in the league would know that the Devils would need to move them, and NJ would have to sweeten the deal by including prospects or draft picks to convince anyone to take on their salaries.
Like many, I’d love to see Kovy back, but not at a crippling cap hit of 10m.
decision time
I was one pf those people who voted in the recent poll to sign Kovalchuk after much consideration. I wasn’t thrilled about a long term contract implications but I’d swallow it if I had to. No longer.
Having taken a closer look at much of the talent on the way up and recognizing how much cap space the Team is ultimately loosing, I’m for the youth development movement from this point forward. Yes, it would be great to have Kovalchuck. I mean who wouldn’t want him, but two or three years down the road i feel the Devils will be a stronger team without him and for years to come.
There is a ton of talent on the way up…. but it is primarily of the unproven variety. Tedenby and Josefsen might turn into the next Zajac and Parise…. or they might turn into Vadim Sharifijanov and Denis Pederson (Devils’ top picks in 1994 and 1993, respectively). Corrente and Urbom could be the second coming of Scott Stevens and Scott Niedermeyer…. or the second coming of David Hale and Matt DeMarchi (both Devils’ draftees in 2000). (Want to see a full Devils draft history? Here it is!)
I’m not saying sign Kovalchuk at any price. However, Kovalchuk is a much more proven commodity, and he’s demonstrated he can play with this team. We don’t know about the kids yet, if they will ever pan out and how much. I’m reminded of the saying about birds in hand and birds in the bush.
Devils Draft History hurts, let us not remind ourselves.
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
how can the devils draft history hurt? they won 3 stanley cups largely off home grown talent. ow, that stings, to see brodeur and niedermayer and elias and parise and zajac.
There was a write-up on this site within the last month outlining how while we hear that the Devils have drafted so well over the years, in the years (ugh, cant remember the years) that we have done well, we have not drafted too well.
Your examples are all good ones, but I believe all 5 of those players were outside of the draft parameters used to demonstrate which teams had done well drafting. I will look for the study.
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
Found it
Check out the Devils Draft History in this article. I realize that it does not cover too many years but I remember reading it vividly and being surprised and depressed.
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
Let us not forget a bad drafting record can be tied to a large extent to having 13 consecutive playoff apperances which keeps us from top 16 picks except via a trade. Just ask Detroit they can tell you also hard it is to draft well when the top 15 guys are off the board when their draft pick comes up.
by KingHellfire on Jul 15, 2010 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions
You should look at 1999-2005. Detroit got prospects who turned out to be players. NJ wasn’t successful outside of the first round and even there they were only average in terms of success rate. Moreover, the teams that were similarly unsuccessful in that time period weren’t consistently good.
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by John Fischer on Jul 15, 2010 12:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
To me other than Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen what have they really brought up. I guess you could throw Howard in too though one year doesn’t convince me of much.
by KingHellfire on Jul 15, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
From 99-05 i mean obviously before that was Lids, and Osgood. Lets see the Devils been about as successful lets see Madden, Gomez, Parise, Zajac, Martin, another good season i’d be willing to add Greene to that list of good picks since 2000. Not to mention a couple we traded to Atlanta Bergfors, Oduya. At the end of the day i think we about on pace with Detroit in drafting.
by KingHellfire on Jul 15, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Mainly the point I was looking to make is that drafting outside the top 15 is a crap shoot. Sometimes you get it right sometimes you don’t.
by KingHellfire on Jul 15, 2010 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
birds 101
A “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush” according to my late Grandmother. But is that bird worth seven or eight in the bush? Because that is what we are going to end up loosing. I think not.
How are we going to end up losing “seven or eight” in the bush?
You can’t count Oduya, Bergfors, Cormier, and whatever the draft pick turns into — they’re sunk costs and gone regardless of where Kovy signs. We don’t get them back if he goes to LA, the KHL, or a mystery NHL club.
Are you considering the bunch in the bush the prospects we have coming up? I actually think we’re more likely to see what they can do if we re-sign Kovy, based on the need to trade veterans to open up cap space, which in turn opens up roster spots for rookies to make contributions. You might have to trade someone along with the veterans to entice a team to take on salary, but I doubt Lou has to include the cream of the crop — he has the option of burying players at Albany in lieu of trading them, and other teams know it, so they can’t ask for the moon.
Are you considering the bunch in the bush the veterans we’d have to trade away? Surely, you don’t consider Zubrus and Salvador (the consensus among us fans about who goes if Ilya returns) put together on their best days equal to Kovalchuk.
Are you considering the bunch in the bush to be Parise, under the assumption the team can’t afford to re-sign him if they sign Kovalchuk? I think there have been enough discussions on the site about how the cap situation is better next off-season (Arnott, Langenbrunner coming off) and will permit signing Zach to a long-term deal, and even better the off-season after that (Rolston, White, among others coming back).
I doubt this “trade” would be nearly as lopsided as you fear. And if it was, Lou is smart enough to walk away from it.
It’s time for Lou to give him a deadline and withdraw our offer if he keeps this going. i dont think its Kovy who is enamored with LA, but more his wife. Regardless, it’s not like Lou to let this hang like this.
i wonder if its more Vanderbeek than Lamoriello who is wanting to stay in the sweepstakes?
Why should Lou give him a deadline?
It’s not like the team’s incomplete. Any holes on the current roster can be filled in by prospects. Technically, Lou doesn’t have to do anything.
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by John Fischer on Jul 14, 2010 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions
would the end result be any different? If you want something and your boss is OK with it, you do it. If you don’t want something and your boss insists, you do it.
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It shouldnt… but I understand what you are saying.
Im still not worried about ‘missing out’ on other UFA’s or anything like that. Lou has conducted a rather important trade, and signed three UFA’s. We have, I think, two positions to fill (3C, offensive Defenseman) which, if we need a UFA, can wait, or can be filled by prospects.
"What in tarnation's goin' on 'round here?!?" - Yosemite Sam in reference to Ilya Kovalchuk not yet signing
I think what will be the big thing is what Lou does at the deadline come February. We always seem to have a team that can handle the 82 regular season games.
by KingHellfire on Jul 15, 2010 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I stand on my premise that there are a number of warring opinions in Kovy’s camp — Kovy, his wife, and both agents for starters…. and maybe the NHLPA has chimed in with their opinion that Ilya needs to take the most NHL dollars out there to “set the market” for future free agents.
I suspect Lou has two plans in mind — one for if the team lands Kovy, and one for if it doesn’t. Since there’s plenty of time left until training camp, and the merchandise (other UFAs) aren’t exactly flying off the shelves, he has time to be patient and wait for Kovy’s decision. He hasn’t negotiated in the newspapers like Lombardi has in LA, and I think that shows a great deal of respect for the player — if he has problems with the timeframe, he’s kept his grievances private.
i wonder if its more Vanderbeek than Lamoriello who is wanting to stay in the sweepstakes?
I suppose Vanderbeek could have said he’d really like Kovalchuk back…. but I can’t imagine Lou being pressured into anything, regardless of the owner.
but I can’t imagine Lou being pressured into anything, regardless of the owner.
Me either, but on the other hand, it’s not Lou’s money he’s entrusted to spend.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
vanderbeek
Honestly, i can’t See Lou pressured by him at all acasser Lou is to smart to let the owner tell him what his job is. I do think LL Wants to make sure he did everything he could to get Kovy. Ya know, no regrets. Then again, knowing our luck. I have a feeling Mark Everson will be publishing a new article saying “The post has learned according to our sources Vanderbeek refuses to let kovy go” followed with “Lou is being pressured to get Kovy” With a headline of “Stubborn Devils” . LOL
I think everyone has Vanderbeek confused with the late great Steinbrenner he is probably and always will be the only true total team management leader. Also I dont know alot about the Devils management team but generally in sports the owners leave the trading and contract negotiations to the GM. Obviously you have your exceptions namely in football like Jones and Davis.
by KingHellfire on Jul 15, 2010 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Obviously you have your exceptions namely in football like Jones and Davis.
And, sadly, Daniel Snyder.
To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.
There is no gm, in any sport, that is throwing around the type of money that it takes to sign a star player like Kovalchuk without the owner being involved.
Vanderbeek surely didnt miss the buzz that Kovlchuk created, and can’t be happy that our attendance numbers lagged again below 2009.
With or without Kovy appears Lou is getting back to basics starting from the back and working up to forwards.
by KingHellfire on Jul 15, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
First time in awhile we had a true number one pairing on d.
by KingHellfire on Jul 15, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Really? Who is that? Mind you, none of these defensemen are better than Paul Martin.
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In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Jul 16, 2010 8:00 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Oh please.Martin is the enemy now, and as i’ve said many times he wasn’t all that.
we will be fine without him and he left us for the same money so he is a traitor.
personally I like a 1st D pairing of the A train and Andy.
Really.
Traitor? He was a UFA. He was free to do whatever after July 1. I’m disappointed he didn’t come back, but that’s not a betrayal.
Moreover, I’ve written several posts pointing out what an amazingly positive impact Martin provided. In comparison to other UFA d-men, including Tallinder and Volchenkov, Martin and Nicklas Lidstrom. Martin is absolutely better than all of the other defensemen on the Devils, and finding out who will eat his minutes, move the puck up like him, and provide a positive on-ice impact like him USA gargantuan challenge. As it stands, there is no proof that Tallinder, Volchenkov, and/or Greene can do all of what Martin did as the #1.
To say he wasn’t all that good is false and I’ve proven that multiple times.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Jul 16, 2010 12:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It’s not like Martin went to the Rangers and then constantly bad mouthed the Devils organization… (CoughGOMEZCough)
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by slackdog_rm on Jul 16, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Niedermayer gone= we survived
Rafalski gone=we survived
Martin gone= we survived
I have no issue if they left for more money, but all three left for equal deals, and that makes them traitors. Sure thats the system of free agency we have, but good riddance. HE didn’t want to be here, its not that we didn’t offer him what he is worth or what he got.
As far as minutes we will have to see. i suspect that we are not done with the defense and more could be coming as far as a puck moving defensman.
if Lou gets us Souray or Kaberle, or another as of yet unidentified puck mover, we have a much better defense than last year. Even if he doesn’t our defense is tougher to play against.
Talinder and the A train bring toughness, and thats what we have been missing since 2003.
I agreed with John in regard to thinking we needed to re-sign Martin ahead of Kovalchuk, but to step on the other side for a moment; you’re comparing Paul Martin in the Devils system vs. Volchenkov in the Sens and Tallinder in the Sabres. How do we know that one or the other or both won’t have the same positive impact on his new teammates? Yeah, they won’t put up the points, but I’m guessing their shots against /60 and similar stats WILL be an improvement over Martin’s last year.
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Paul didn’t want to play here anymore. He waited all of 20 minutes to sign with Pittsburgh after declaring in an interview that he’d like to come back and wanted to take his time making a decision. Lou says there was an offer on the table. Zach says he never saw one. He’s gone. Can we get over it?
He made everyone on the ice better. And he will be missed. In his departure, the Devils signed a physical blueliner that has been sorely missing for years. And another very good Defenseman. These guys may not have had the statistical impact on the rest of the team the way Paul did, but they are very good defensemen, and fill deficiencies that were present on the blue line.
Give them a season or 2 before we start comparing advanced stats. They are related to effect on the rest of the team, and last time I checked, these guys haven’t played with the rest of this team yet. I’m sure they’ll do very well in the Devils System.
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