How Offensive Does Your Defense Have to be to Win the Cup?

by FrankG929 on Jul 2, 2010 2:57 PM EDT

Editor's Note: This is some pretty good work done here by Frank. So it gets deserves a little more notice.

With the ongoing debate over the attributes of Paul Martin, Anton Volchenkov, and Henrik Tallinder I got curious about just how much offense came from the defense on the most recent Stanley Cup winning teams. I'll compare the offensive outputs of the Devils (current) 6 signed defensemen with the top 6 in games played of each of the Stanley Cup winning teams. Obviously, since the playoffs provide a small sample size, and generally lower scoring overall, I'll focus on the regular seasons.

First the Devils. Here is last season's scoring data for the current Devils defense:

Player	GP	G	A	P
Andy Greene	78	6	31	37
Bryce Salvador	79	4	10	14
Colin White	81	2	10	12
Anssi Salmela	38	2	6	8
Henrik Tallinder	82	4	16	20
Anton Volchenkov	64	4	10	14
Total		22	83	105

2010 Blackhawks:

Player	GP	G	A	P
Duncan Keith	82	14	55	69
Brian Campbell	68	7	31	38
Brent Seabrook	78	4	26	30
Niklas Hjalmarsson	77	2	15	17
Cam Barker	51	4	10	14
Brent Sopel	73	1	7	8
Total		32	144	176

2009 Penguins:

Player	GP	G	A	P
Kris Letang	74	10	23	33
Alex Goligoski	45	6	14	20
Brooks Orpik	79	2	17	19
Rob Scuderi	81	1	15	16
Hal Gill	62	2	8	10
Mark Eaton	68	4	5	9
Total		25	82	107

2008 Red Wings:

Player	GP	G	A	P
Nicklas Lidstrom	76	10	60	70
Brian Rafalski	73	13	42	55
Niklas Kronwall	65	7	28	35
Brett Lebda	78	3	11	14
Chris Chelios	69	3	9	12
Andreas Lilja	79	2	10	12
Total		38	160	198

2007 Ducks:

Player	GP	G	A	P
Scott Niedermayer	79	15	54	69
Chris Pronger	66	13	46	59
Francois Beauchemin	71	7	21	28
Sean O'Donnell	79	2	15	17
Shane O'Brien	62	2	12	14
Joe Dipenta	76	2	6	8
Total		41	154	195

2006 Hurricanes:

Player	GP	G	A	P
Frantisek Kaberle	77	6	38	44
Bret Hedican	74	5	22	27
Aaron Ward	71	6	19	25
Oleg Tverdovsky	72	3	20	23
Mike Commodore	72	3	10	13
Glen Wesley	64	2	8	10
Total		25	117	142

OK, 5 post-lockout Stanley Cup winners. Two of them had only 25 regular season goals from their defense. The Devils 22 are not a far cry from 40% of the post-lockout Cup winner totals. If you extrapolate Salmela's and Volchenkov's numbers out to full seasons, Anssi adds 2 and Anton 1, to bring the total to 25. Unfortunately, doing the same to the '09 Penguins puts them at about 32. So all things being equal, only the '06 'Canes compare goal-wise.

Looking at the assists, while in absolute numbers, the Devils compare favorably to the '09 Penguins, extrapolating the lower games played numbers to full seasons, the Pens are around 110, the Devils 92 or so. The Devils fall short on all counts here.

When we look at the number of goals scored from the defense compared to the total number scored by the teams, the results don't look much different:

Year	Team	Def	Def %
2010 Devils	222	25	11.3%
2010 Blackhawks	271	35	12.9%
2009 Penguins	264	37	14.0%
2008 Red Wings	257	40	15.6%
2007 Ducks	258	42	16.3%
2006 Hurricanes	294	35	11.9%

Factoring in the percentages of Volchenkov's and Tallinder's goals of the Sens and Sabres actually brings the Devils percentage down to 9.8%

Conclusion? The Devils would need about 6 more goals from their defense, assuming the same team goal scoring rate, to be around the average percentage of the past 5 champions, 14.06% (31/222=13.96%). Since they only got 25 from their D last season, expecting a close to 25% improvement isn't too reasonable unless Larry Robinson finds something in one of them he can help grow. My solution? Trade Salvador or Salmela for someone who can get at least 10 or more goals and 25-30 assists from the blue line. This to be around the average of the most recent 5 Stanley Cup winners. While adding Volchenkov and Tallinder in place of Martin and Mottau may help the Devils defensively, I have to agree with John that they may not have enough oomph on their blue line to make it to the Stanley Cup finals.

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Comments

corvo, if we dont dont kovy?

corvo should sign with the devils,
1) right handed
2) big
3) score average 10goals/season

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by J-camps on Jul 2, 2010 3:16 PM EDT reply actions

Reasonable money too. Maybe 2 million maybe 2.5 million over 3 years?

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by RolliePollieKovy on Jul 2, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Im in with Joey Corvo

by Skuba7 on Jul 2, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Same here

by Devilman3030 on Jul 2, 2010 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Absolutely

He’s a better fit than a Souray-type of player. We don’t necessarily need goals, we just need a “puck-mover” at the blue line, to give us flexibility.

Because we all know what happens when you don’t have an offensive blue line (09-10), you get guys like Mottau who think they’re puck movers…

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by DownGoesAvery on Jul 2, 2010 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions

You’ve forgotten about Gonchar for the 2009 Penguins. He scored 6 goals and 13 assists in just 25 games in the regular season. And then he contributed 3 goals and 11 assists in 22 playoff games. When you take that into account, it’s clear the Penguins with Gonchar are much closer to the other Cup winners, who could count on 30+ goals from their defense.

The only comparable is the ‘06 Canes, but the Canes got tons of scoring that year from forwards that didn’t have a strong track record of scoring. In the regular season, a still-young Eric Staal scored his career-best 100 pts, Justin Williams and Cory Stillman got 76 pts each, and Brindamour had 70 pts. They also got solid contributions from Cole, Whitney, and Cullen, giving them 7 players with 50+ points. They picked up Weight and Recchi at the trade deadline and those players added to their offensive depth.

On the current Devils squad (as is), we can compare Parise to Staal and conclude that Parise could come close to Staal’s output that year. Zajac, Langenbrunner, and Elias could all get 50+ pts and Arnott could be in the neighborhood as well, but it’s clear the Devils don’t have the scoring depth that the Canes did that year.

On top of that, I really believe that teams have continued to get better since the lockout. Young players are coming into the league and succeeding, and it takes such solid D and so much scoring depth to survive four playoff rounds. Signing Kovalchuk would go a long way to giving us two reliable scoring lines, and arguably Zubrus and Salvador are expendable given the Devils’ defensive strength and need for more offense.

by dr(d)evil on Jul 2, 2010 5:43 PM EDT reply actions

I didn’t forget Gonchar, he wasn’t one of the 6 that played the most regular season games for the Pens. Granted, he did come back for the playoffs, but I wanted to try to have a consistent comparison.

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by FrankG929 on Jul 2, 2010 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the Pens were consistently dressing 7 D for the playoffs

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by red army line on Jul 3, 2010 7:56 AM EDT up reply actions

This is some pretty good work. I think the larger need is “defenseman who can move puck” moreso than “defenseman who can get points” but both are needs, so I largely agree.

Even if I didn’t agree, it’s a strong effort so welcome it to the Front Page.

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by John Fischer on Jul 2, 2010 6:06 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks John. I think there’s probably a pretty strong correlation between puck-moving and higher-scoring defensemen, so perhaps we’re no so far apart after all.

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by FrankG929 on Jul 2, 2010 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions

NOTE ABOUT PAUL MARTIN

Paul Martin has never scored more than 6 goals in a season. His injured plagued season last year only got him 2. He does get a lot of assists, but when it comes to goal production, he was never anything special. I’m feeling less and less gloomy over Martin’s departure.

Devils need to get Kovalchuk, for sure, but if they could shed more salary and get Bergeron or Corvo, that would finally make for an impressive looking powerplay unit.

by njdss4 on Jul 2, 2010 6:25 PM EDT reply actions

The system has a little something to do with it, though. Mike Rupp never scored more than 6 goals in his career either until he went to a more offensively oriented team, where he more than doubled that output.

I’m sure there will be a point next season where every Devils fan thinks, “Where was this scoring when he was a Devil?”, but your point is made.

The Ookies sum it up best:

Paulie’s never had any finish, what made us think he’d finish well with the Devils?

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by elesias on Jul 2, 2010 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Arnott will handle the left point anyway

Then adding Corvo would prevent a double-shift of Arnott, and you still hope for a 100% Elias, Parise, Zajac, Langs, even Clarkson to stand in front, and (gulp) Rolston if necessary.

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by DownGoesAvery on Jul 2, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Paul Martin has never scored more than 6 goals in a season. His injured plagued season last year only got him 2. He does get a lot of assists, but when it comes to goal production, he was never anything special.

All that means is that Martin’s not a goal scoring machine. Fine. That’s not his primary or even his secondary job.

Besides, if he’s racking up assists, it means he’s involved in helping someone else scoring, which is still desirable.

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by John Fischer on Jul 2, 2010 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions

defensemen

trading salvador would be the best option, i’ve seen that suggested on this blog and others at least a few hundred times, (along with trade rolston/white/zubrus etc) but i think the way to do it would be to include at least a medium prospect which would make absorbing salvador’s two years remainingon his contract more palatable to the other team and insisting upon only a lower round draft choice rather than agreeing to absorb a large (also unwanted) salarly from the other team…i’m trying to be realistic here rather than make some unobtainable proposal that some contributors make to mr gulitti’s fine blog, but any criticism that anyone makes towards my proposal i will not take personally, so feel free to comment

by don in central jersey on Jul 2, 2010 7:05 PM EDT reply actions

Salvador

I think Salvador is worth more than having to be coupled with a prospect to move him. I think there are some teams out there that would welcome his $2.9MM Cap Hit. He is a serviceable Defenseman, us Devils fans I think are spoiled in the Defense we have had over the last 15-18 years, so Salvador doesnt cut it. To wit, there are (still) 8 UFA Defenseman that made at least that much last season, with names like Ruslan Salei, Brett Clark and Denis Grebeshkov.
So, given the right situation, I think we could trade Salvador on his own, for a decent pick, maybe as high as low 2nd, high 3rd. Andrej Meszaros, with a $4 Million Cap Hit for the next 4 years, garndered a 2nd Round pick. Why not Salvador?

by Skuba7 on Jul 2, 2010 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions

i dont flyers will be trading him since they just picked him up

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by J-camps on Jul 3, 2010 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions

You misread what I stated. Someone like Meszaros, who makes $4MM was traded for a 2nd Rd pick. And it doesnt seem to me that Andrei Meszaros is any better than Bryce Salvador. So, who is not to believe that Salvador couldnt get us back a 2nd or 3rd Rd pick?

by Skuba7 on Jul 3, 2010 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Corvo...I have been asking you guys about him for the longest time.

No one said anything. No, I read posts saying he was too old. Now Corvo.

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by LoNJDTechnology on Jul 2, 2010 7:42 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Well now were talking about him.

lol

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by RolliePollieKovy on Jul 2, 2010 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions

No, I read posts saying he was too old. Now Corvo.

I put him up as a possibility earlier here, though my beef was his potential cost, not his age. Though I thought he’d replace Mottau and Martin would stay in said scenario.

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by John Fischer on Jul 2, 2010 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I stand corrected.

I think that if the Devils can bring him to New Jersey then they should. I remember reading that he is a good defensive man who cn score points. That exactly what the Devils seem to need right now.

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by LoNJDTechnology on Jul 2, 2010 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I remember reading that he is a good defensive man who cn score points.

Look at the charts again in this post – he’s not really that exceptional defensively. He should be OK in NJ, given the others around him, though.

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by John Fischer on Jul 2, 2010 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Corvo is like Mottau defensively he’s pretty average but makes a lot of big mistakes. I really want no part of Corvo.

by C.J. Richey on Jul 2, 2010 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions

There are very few perfect players. The only puck-moving Dmen available for a reasonable price are going to come with some compromises defensively.

by HockeyWeasel on Jul 2, 2010 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh. Okay.

Realistically speaking, Is there a better option right now?

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by LoNJDTechnology on Jul 2, 2010 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Corvo was on the ice for 33 GF this year, and 37 GA.

Before his trade to Washington, Corvo was playing alongisde Tim Gleason on the Hurricanes’ number 1 defense pairing. Per the stats at behind the net, he was 28th among all NHL defensemen (with 50+ games played) in Quality of Competition. Additionally, Carolina was towards the bottom of the league in Goals Against (only Columbus, Tampa Bay, the Islanders, Toronto, and Edmonton gave up more).

If he came to the Devils, he wouldn’t be playing on the top pair, against the best players the opposition had to offer. The Devils’ system would better help to cover up some of his mistakes.

by HockeyWeasel on Jul 2, 2010 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Oops — forgot the link to Behind the Net — http://www.behindthenet.ca/2009/new_5_on_5.php?sort=8&section=goals&mingp=50&mintoi=&team=&pos=D

by HockeyWeasel on Jul 2, 2010 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions

theres also M.A Bergeron, but hes more of the mike green type and will prob chip in way to much and cause a breakaway or 2 on 1 (then anton blocks the shot and parise picks up puck a SCORES!!)

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by J-camps on Jul 2, 2010 10:28 PM EDT reply actions

Colaiacovo

is a possibility I suppose. Not much left going on in the UFA market.

by Skuba7 on Jul 2, 2010 11:36 PM EDT reply actions

ya hes ok also..do we even have 1 Right handed Dman?
Salvador, a-train, white, salmela(sub), Tallinder, Greene
ya we have corrente but c’mon, neeed a top 4 atleast
at this point i dont care which Right handed dman we get, amd im sure Lou is thinking the same way about a Right hander since didnt he mention something like this last year, during a interview with chico (not sure), chico saying hat we have no right handed Dman

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by J-camps on Jul 3, 2010 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions

isn’t corvo right-handed?

corvo may not be the best defensively, but paired with a stay-at-home i think he can be effective. he had some pretty good years in ottawa when their D-corps was solid with chara, redden at his best, and a decent tom preissing.

by dr(d)evil on Jul 3, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah put him with White or Salvador and he’ll be good.

Piece by piece we are slowly turning into the 2000 Devils team, anyone up for the A-Line: The Sequel?

by RolliePollieKovy on Jul 3, 2010 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Konopka

This is a bigger deal to us than I would have previously thought with Zenon signing. Fighters everywhere in the Atlantic.
NHL Isles

by Skuba7 on Jul 3, 2010 7:22 PM EDT reply actions

21 Players signed

and only $36.5MM committed to the Cap, means they need to spend $7MM minimum between two players. Plenty of room for Kovalchuk at $10MM.

by Skuba7 on Jul 3, 2010 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Let Kovy go there. There not gonna win anyway. The same thing will happen in NY as in Atlanta. He may get to the playoffs once but they won’t win the Cup. Let him make the 10M, play in front of Devils and Rangers fans whenever theres a game between the rivals, and play for a “loser” team the past couple years with a team that has a question mark on goaltending.

Piece by piece we are slowly turning into the 2000 Devils team, anyone up for the A-Line: The Sequel?

by RolliePollieKovy on Jul 3, 2010 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I think its hillarious that Snow has been throwing money around and everyone has been turning him down. I seriously think that Kovalchuk would rather play in the SEL then the Islanders. The sad thing is that with out a new building (whether its in Hamilton or Long Island) the Islanders are not going to be relevant.

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by slackdog_rm on Jul 3, 2010 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions