Three Options the New Jersey Devils Have for the Third Line Center Role
by John Fischer on Jul 31, 2010 5:25 PM EDT
in Devils Issues & Views
91 comments
Amid all the Ilya Kovalchuk contract discussion - something that will finally lead to some conclusion in the coming week - I realized something very odd about the current New Jersey Devils lineup. It's an issue the team will have to address this preseason, if not this summer, regardless of what happens to Kovalchuk.
The New Jersey Devils do not have a third line center.
You can actually take it a step further and say they have no fourth line center either. However, for the sake of argument, let's assume Rod Pelley in that role. He's already signed, he's played the position before and while not great, I think he could handle 8-10 minutes spelling other forwards.
Still, that the Devils have no third line center penciled in the lineup really shouldn't be shocking. The Devils waited until late September to sign Rob Niedermayer, last season's third line center. Whilst Jay Pandolfo played himself out of a starter's spot on the third line and John Madden moved on in Chicago, Niedermayer was one of the few constants in a lineup that was shuffling in someway or form. He was a defensive-minded center, he constantly centered that third line, and for a player on a $1 million/1 year contract, one really couldn't complain about what he brought to the team.
With Niedermayer now a member of the Buffalo Sabres and Pandolfo bought out, the third line could easily be Brian Rolston and David Clarkson as the wings for an unknown center. It's quite possible that this season's third line may not be a defensive-minded unit. For most of the past decade, the Devils third line would feature Pandolfo and Madden with either a gritty right winger (e.g. Turner Stevenson, Grant Marshall) or two-way right winger (e.g. Jamie Langenbrunner). This was the case until this past season and in a few short months, it could be something completely different.
What's really shocking was how this situation has happened in stages. In retrospect, Madden signing with Chicago as an UFA last summer was the first step. The Devils signed Niedermayer as a veteran option near the end of preseason realizing that none of the other centers in the system were ready for the NHL. He was a stop-gap; but second step was Jacques Lemaire's usage of his first line. He preferred to match top line against top line, as shown in the increased QUALCOMP (numbers from Behind the Net) of both Travis Zajac (0.039 -> 0.069) and Zach Parise (0.03 -> 0.099). Given that the Devils didn't get pounded in their own end last season via the fact they allowed the fewest goals in the league in 09-10, I think it's fair to say the strategy wasn't a bad one. The third step was the decline in Jay Pandolfo's performance. He basically lost a step and since his main function of shutting down the team's top right winger was replaced, he wasn't needed. Therefore, he requested a buyout earlier this summer - which he got.
That leads us to now. Interestingly enough, how the Devils address this issue is tied directly to what happens with Kovalchuk. I've come up with a few options after the jump on what the Devils can do about third line center void.
Option 1: Free Agency
This is what the New Jersey Devils went with last season. They weren't comfortable with the centers in the system for the role, so they went out and got Rob Niedermayer. Well, who is to say that can't happen again? There are plenty of unrestricted free agents available as of this writing (view a full list of UFA forwardss at CapGeek here). A number of them could take on a third line role like Eric Belanger, Dominic Moore (Update: Nope, he's signed to Tampa Bay), and Kyle Wellwood for example. As the season comes closer, anyone who is still UFA is likely going to available for cheap. So this option doesn't necessarily make it an expensive one.
However, it would represent another stop-gap for another season as the other centers in the system develop for another season. Signing someone like Belanger (which wouldn't be necessarily bad idea, see here and here) may not even bring a checking center, but a two-way center. So things would still change, only with a veteran. A long-term deal for a stop-gap would only make sense if the Devils' center prospects really do need more time to develop, or if the Devils don't want to use them in a third line role. The latter makes little sense to me unless whoever they sign will be instructed to think defense-first.
This is also the option where Kovalchuk's contract really would have an immediate effect on it. If the NHL's rejection is overruled, the contract is accepted as-is and the Devils will be over the salary cap by about $2.3 million. The Devils would have to dump salary at that point and cannot possibly consider signing anyone until they do so. Given the contracts I think the Devils should dump, I don't think free agency is even worth considering unless they clear out a lot of space. That said, if the Devils have the space in late September and really do need another center, then this option becomes viable.
But they may not have to considering that the Devils do have a few centers in the system:
Option 2: Centers in the System
The first (and second) names that may come up in some fans minds are Adam Henrique and Jacob Josefson. Both are centers. Both are young. One is coming off a torrid season in Windsor, where they won the OHL championship, the Memorial Cup, and even went to the World Junior Championships to represent Canada. The other is coming from a Swedish Elite League team that lost in the finals to HV71, having played in a second line role in a professional league all season. There's reason to be excited for both center prospects; to the point where maybe they're ready to jump into the NHL. There's a spot available, why not let them learn on the job?
However, it's not just them in the system. You have to consider Tim Sestito, who would only cost $500k to the team's cap, has more experience in pro hockey then both, and could be more willing to play a checking style if the team requires one. You have to consider Patrick Davis, who got an 8 game call up last season and has every reason to be hungry in camp to compete for any kind of spot. You have to consider even David McIntyre (who will be going into his first season of pro hockey) and Michael Swift (coming off) as they are centers who could be added for less cap space than either Henrique or Josefson.
Yes, Henrique and Josefson are very talented. I am hoping they become not only New Jersey Devils players but quality New Jersey Devils players. However, there are multiple options within the system and both prospects will have to prove that they are better than them first. Plus, if the Devils feel that third line center should be a defensive center and they don't think either Henrique or Josefson should have that role, then others will be considered. This isn't new - it partially explains why Niclas Bergfors didn't make it to New Jersey until last season. The Devils wanted him in a scoring role.
Should the Devils need to build from within and get younger, this option makes the most sense. There's a third, crazier option, however.
Option 3: Move Brian Rolston or Dainius Zubrus to Center
Dainius Zubrus would probably be the initial choice for most Devils fans if the decision came down to just these two players. Zubrus has played center at times last season, and mostly at center in 2008-09. Zubrus hasn't shown much production, but his ability to win pucks, get into space, use his size to his advantage, and win more battles along the boards than one may realize is valuable. For those reasons alone, the Devils could move Zubrus down to center the third line, put a scoring winger prospect up at right wing in the top 6 to replace him, and move on.
I don't think you should count out Rolston, though. Don't laugh, he's played the position before. Granted, that was way back when he was a Boston Bruin (last season as Bruin: 2003-04, 1,205 faceoffs, 50.6% won)
Still, Rob Niedermayer came to the Devils after several seasons on Sami Pahlsson's wing in Anaheim, and they found it fit to use him at center all last season in New Jersey regardless of how long ago he played the position and how not all that great he was at faceoffs. It's not that Rolston has ever been a poor defensive player, so it's not like he's going to be a sieve all of a sudden. If anything, he'll bring more offense than Niedermayer and further establish that the New Jersey Devils' third line is not strictly a checking line. Plus, the Devils would have an open spot at winger. If the line's not going to be a defensively minded line, then what better spot to insert a prospect? The Devils have plenty of winger prospects of various types and all could fit while being "protected" by the veterans Clarkson and Rolston.
That said, making the transition could be difficult. Rolston's 37 and this option is asking him to do something he hadn't done since he was 31. Could he win 50% of his faceoffs just like Niedermayer did last season in New Jersey (50.6% out of 945) all of the sudden? Could he handle the additional responsibilities that come with the position? Most of all, why would the Devils attempt this now? The Devils were weak at center going into 09-10 and yet they didn't consider Rolston at center - surely, that means something, doesn't it?
Regardless of who the Devils decide here, what makes this option more interesting is that it is an internal option. Yes, it'll create a hole elsewhere in the roster, but the sheer number of prospects in the system at wing outnumber those at center. It's a more easily filled hole, and if a prospect falters or isn't ready for a full season, then he is more easily replaced by someone else in the system.
Your Take
Ultimately, the Devils can take their time on this issue. What happens with Ilya Kovalchuk will have a big effect on what they can actually do with respect to their roster and their salary cap. However, we're going to find out what happens to Kovalchuk within this week. The Devils have about two months to figure out what they want the third line to do and who they want to center that line. We could see a repeat of last year where a free agent will be brought in late to take the spot (Option 1) or the Devils can go in a different direction either from the system (Option 2) or from within (Option 3).
In the meantime, I'd like to know what you'd think. Do you think the third line should be a defensive-minded unit? Or do you want a more two-way line? What would you do about the third line center void if you had a say in the matter? Which of these three options do you like the best? Is there a fourth reasonable option I haven't considered? Please let me know your thoughts about this issue - and not any other issue - in the comments.
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Dominic Moore signed with the Lightning
Heres the link. I would like to see both of these players (Henrique and Josefson) both compete hard for the job. But since Josefson has played with older hockey players in the swedish elite league it does give him a small leap over Henrique on experience with older guys. I wouldn’t mind the other guys though.
Mathew Barnaby to Lyle Odelein: "Cornelius, as we like to call him, gets under your skin. Planet of the Apes. Look at him. Seriously. He looks like Cornelious."
Odelein to Barnaby: "He should take a look at his wife. She's God-awful to look at."
by RolliePollieKovy on Jul 31, 2010 6:01 PM EDT reply actions
Noted. I’ll go cross out his name in this post shortly.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
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by John Fischer on Jul 31, 2010 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
“Given that the Devils didn’t get pounded in their own end last season via the fact they allowed the fewest goals in the league in 09-10, I think it’s fair to say the strategy wasn’t a bad one.”
I’m sorry, but I completely disagree with this assessment. Last season, we had only one line with players that could consistently score the goals we needed. Line two still had the potential to score each game, but wasn’t nearly as effective offensively in the most objective sense. Why do I say it that way? Because the first line would have been even farther ahead of the second in offense if we weren’t using it for defense for quite a significant amount of time. We were a team that desperately needed to score goals, but the line that could be relied upon to do this was too often being used to shore up our defense.
In the past few weeks, I have posted several comments on this site expressing my opinion that our defense, as a team, really wasn’t very good. The response has always been something to the effect of, “we let in the least amount of goals in the league, so obviously that’s not true.” But there are two points to consider before saying that.
First, if we had the exact same team with almost any other goaltender (I say almost because there were a handful last season who were as or more effective than Brodeur), our goals against would have been much higher. Brodeur can make our defense look better than it is when it comes to statistics. Second — and perhaps more importantly — shoring up our defense in a given game often came at too great an expense for our offense. Of course, it’s always true that if you play a more defensive game, your offense will suffer. But when we start using our scorers to take the place of a third line that had the sole purpose of being the defensive line and playing against the other team’s best, you have serious problems, and it showed.
I really think we can’t just consider the amount of goals against our team when saying that Lemaire’s strategy was effective. If we want to do better this year, we need either one of two things: two very effective offensive lines, or a third line that can play defense against the other team’s best.
brodeur was merely an above-average goaltender last season, there is no way that he contributed as much as you think to the devils’ defense. playing parise and zajac on the other teams top players was absolutely the right move, especially when we got kovalchuk. defensive lines are a thing of the past – the reason why defensive lines succeeded in the old NHL was because the rules were quite simply, not enforced. this gave the edge to defensive players. when you play defensive lines against the other team’s top lines, it’s a losing proposition.
the devils should, even if they deal rolston, be able to assemble an effective third line with clarkson and zubrus that can provide offensive punch.
I didn’t say that playing Parise and Zajac against the other team’s best players wasn’t the right move for last season, I just said that it didn’t work out very well. It was the right move, simply because we had no other choice. But it was not an effective strategy because it contributed greatly to our offensive problem.
by Dr. Witticism on Jul 31, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
it’s the right move regardless of what new jersey does. ‘defensive lines’ just don’t exist anymore. you can get lucky like the blackhawks and have a guy like dave bolland get outchanced 2 to 1 and still come out with a positive +/-, but i don’t think that’s a smart way to build a team.
I disagree with this. Maybe you don’t have a line that plays defense and only defense (though I still don’t see why such lines can’t exist anymore), but you have one that can effectively play against the other team’s best players. It doesn’t matter if you call it a defensive line or a two-way line or whatever, all that matters is that it can play that role of playing against the other team’s best.
To follow up on the post above: I really don’t think Brodeur was just above average last season. For one thing, the defense in front of him was probably some of the worst he has seen in a long time. Second, he demonstrating his great play in things like shutouts and other stats. He had bad games here and there, but he made our defense look better more often than not. Couple that with the poor but ultimately necessary strategy of using our best offensive players for defense, and our defense as a team looked much, much better than it was.
by Dr. Witticism on Jul 31, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry, but it would take me several pages to try to inform you of the way i think about hockey. the short version is that hockey is a territorial game, and conceding territory in the way that classic defensive lines used to cannot work. if teams are in the devils’ offensive zone, they’re going to get scoring chances. defensive lines don’t work unless they can keep the puck in the opponents’ zone and generate scoring chances themselves.
there is just no way to slice the way that brodeur played as anything better than above average. the defense being bad in front of him is laughable – you’re probably one of those people who thinks mike mottau and colin white don’t belong in the NHL. not only was the devils’ defense excellent, but the devils’ D just doesn’t take penalties, which made them even better.
grr
when i said ‘devils’ offensive zone’, i meant ‘defensive zone’
I think there has been a misunderstanding in our communication. We are defining “defensive line” in different ways. It doesn’t have to be a “classic defensive line.” As I said in my last comment, it just has to be a line that “can play that role of playing against the other team’s best,” regardless of what you call it. It has to be a line that can do this, because if the only line that can is your best offensive line, you’re screwed.
I didn’t say anything about how this defensive line plays defense. A line is defensive if it is used more for defense than offense. That’s it. It doesn’t have to play like the defensive lines of the past. All it has to do is be used to play against the other team’s best when needed.
by Dr. Witticism on Jul 31, 2010 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions
well in that case, i’d use travis zajac, since he is by far our best defensive player.
i am contending that defensive forwards for the most part DO NOT EXIST, and that the best defense is a good offense. the problem with your best offensive line being your best defensive is when your other lines are a total garbage dump, like the rolston-niedermayer-clarkson line was. otherwise, it’s not a problem.
did you see the playoffs? thats when the defence was absolutely brutal
by kewlnsimpguy on Jul 31, 2010 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with Witty....
You can’t have one defense line in the new NHL. You have to have atleast one scoring guy on atleast 3 lines. Were covered with Parise, Kovalchuk, and Clarkson on each line. The fourth line isn’t bad because your going to have a fighter in Leblond, a checking center in Pelley maybe Sesito, and a scorer with either Zharkov or Palmeri on the opposite side.
The defense was ok last year. Marty had to stand on his head at some points. Mike Mottau although his stats somehow tell different looked terrible. Colin White’s best game of the year was Game 2 of the playoffs. Salavdor seemed to have a very good year last year. The only bad game I remember fondly was the Islander game in which he scored a goal in. BUt both zones look a lot better this year.
Mathew Barnaby to Lyle Odelein: "Cornelius, as we like to call him, gets under your skin. Planet of the Apes. Look at him. Seriously. He looks like Cornelious."
Odelein to Barnaby: "He should take a look at his wife. She's God-awful to look at."
by RolliePollieKovy on Jul 31, 2010 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions
In the past few weeks, I have posted several comments on this site expressing my opinion that our defense, as a team, really wasn’t very good. The response has always been something to the effect of, "we let in the least amount of goals in the league, so obviously that’s not true."
OK. How about the fact that the Devils allowed an average of 27.0 shots per game, the second lowest average in the entire league last season? That, in conjunction with the fewest goals allowed as a team, should indicate that the defense was quite effective in measurable ways.
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by John Fischer on Jul 31, 2010 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he means the on paper defense: No big names on the blueline.
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by Kevin Sellathamby on Jul 31, 2010 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know how I can say it any better than in all the other posts above: if our supposedly great defense was great only because we neglected our offense to achieve it, it was a failure.
That’s great if your team has the second lowest shots allowed in the league. But is t great if your best offensive players have to pick up the slack because the effectiveness of your defense is lacking?
by Dr. Witticism on Jul 31, 2010 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions
And I think my point is proven by the playoffs. When we came up against a team that forcechecked hard on most shifts, putting more pressure on our actual defenders, we started turning the puck over and getting stuck in our own zone.
by Dr. Witticism on Jul 31, 2010 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions
but who got the better scoring chances and who were on their heels all night every night
by kewlnsimpguy on Jul 31, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
How can the Devils be on their heels and yet outshoot the other team at even strength when the score was tied?
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
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by John Fischer on Jul 31, 2010 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
More importantly
How is the defense’s performance in the playoffs relevant to Niedermayer? Tying this back into the actual post, would a more versatile third line have helped? Would it have changed little? Would a more defensive third line have helped?
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
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by John Fischer on Jul 31, 2010 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m confused at times when Dr. Witticism says the defense wasn’t great. Sometimes he seems to be talking about the defensemen, sometimes about “team defense”. The comment on the defense’s poor performance in the playoffs when facing a strong forecheck seems to be an indictment on the blueline rather than the forwards, and about their puck-moving ability rather than their ability to prevent shots against and goals against.
It’s a bit of a non sequiter, but not completely. Our D were generally not great skaters, which hurts both their puck-stopping and puck-moving ability. They were also not great at making long passes, forcing our forwards to come closer to them to receive the puck and then turn up the ice.
My opinion is that our defensemen were decent at preventing shots and goals, but our team defense was GREAT, largely due to the defensive proficiency of our forwards. I have no expectation for our D corps to live up to our past Cup-winning groups, but I think they are, overall, a below-average group in this league.
I’m sorry if I wasn’t completely clear, but you hit the nail on the head with the last part of your first paragraph.
I’m saying that our best forwards picked up the slack of our lacking defensemen, thus dampening their offensive potential. While we ended up having good defense as far as statistics are concerned, that’s misleading because it was our best forwards that were often doing too much of that work and not enough offense.
by Dr. Witticism on Jul 31, 2010 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
and with your last paragraph. I did say above, “When we came up against a team that forcechecked hard on most shifts, putting more pressure on our actual defenders.” I guess you’ve articulated that in a clearer fashion.
by Dr. Witticism on Jul 31, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Well in the playoffs we had more shots but the were low chance shots. And we did seem to run around an awful lot that series. We didn’t seem to be able to sustain pressure we would have one shot on goal then we would have to fall back. Puck control was a big problem. I don’t remember how many times Briere and Carcillo among others were left out in front of Brodeur uncontested. One of the biggest culprits in allowing this was Paul Martin who now is gone. That is why I was happy to see him go he never played the body and was awful weak in front of the net.
i mean when you lose in 5 and shoot 3% at even strength it’s hard to say it would’ve helped enough, but yes, it would have helped. the devils’ top 2 lines outshot the opposition but gave it all back with the horrid 3rd and 4th lines. a third line with zubrus and clarkson going up against opposition 3rd lines would probably break even.
I thought even though the Devils notched a lot of shots on goal, most of them were low-quality shots from the perimeter of the offensive zone. The Flyers used their forecheck to generate some great chances in front and in the slot.
And I was just about to say this too. Saying the Devils had more shots is also misleading like our overall defensive statistics like low goals against. We threw every shot possible at Boucher in desperation. Can someone find a chart of where shots were taken in each of those games? Philly had better chances, while we shot from everywhere we could (a strategy that proves ineffective when facing an above average or better goaltender).
by Dr. Witticism on Jul 31, 2010 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree philly didn’t have better chances. They just capitalized on the chances they had. Mainly on power plays they shouldn’t of even had. They also had some guys make some really nice shots.
They devils had plenty of there own. Good shots real good opportunities. They just didn’t put the puck in the net. Period. They had enough PP’s of there own and just didn’t put the puck in the net.
No Dude, Philly’s positioning the whole series was fantastic. Someone was in front and the side of Brodeur way too often totally alone.
The Devils just kept firing the puck, they quality of shoots was atrocious. And while you keep pointing out they had enough time on the PP, that doesn’t automatically equal quality shots… because NJ took so few shots on the PP.
Games 1-3 where pretty even. Not sure what games you where watching
Game 4 we totally blew. NJD had 31 shots. + 1-8 pp
Game 5 we totally blew NJD had 29 shots + 0-8 pp
-Philly up 3-0 33 mins in and we went 0-5 on the pp after that point.
Of course with a 3 goal lead for half the game your not going to have that many quality chances.
Game 4 + 5 power play
Philly 4-14 28.5%
Devils 1-16 6%
So no I do not think philly had better chances. Devils had just as many opportunities even at even strength and just didn’t get it done….and yes I remember the low or poor shots on the PP but to be that counts as blowing the chance.
game 3 we were not even. at ALL actually… i dont see how making brodeur make about 11 robberies that game makes us even
You’re were clearly watching and remembering through rose colored glasses.
Once again NJ shot selection and position through most of the series (Except game 2) was horrible for the most part. Philly on the other hand struck with surgical precision.
Not to mention the power play was the same play each time. Cycle the puck around and give it to Kovy at the point. They did that for almost every power play and after a while the flyers were able to figure the power play in game 1. The whole set up to Kovy power plays were completely obvious. There should have been more of an effort to get the puck to Parise in the slot or near the crease during the power play.
Devil for Life
by st.pattysdaymassacre26 on Aug 1, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Not to mention the power play was the same play each time
To me, this falls largely on the coaching, and not as much on the players themselves. At some point, Lemaire and Co. needed to recognize what the Flyers were doing and adapt to that…. and I never saw any of that the entire series. The Flyers out-hustled and out-hit the Devils, and it seemed to me that eventually an awful lot of the players rolled over and played dead.
Who scored more goals with the score tied?
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"I was in the moment, and the moment said smack you." - Bruce Willis
rolston was tried at center for new jersey and was found very much wanting. he was moved back to center in the 2008-09 playoffs on the 4th line, which is the only place i think he could be effective as a center. he has diminished speed and diminished interest in defensive play.
niedermayer was as effective as could’ve been hoped for the first 60% of the season, but his fenwick post-kovalchuk is beyond horrendous, he was a disaster down the stretch.
the devils can either go with zubrus or josefson. i don’t think any other options make sense. and i think that’s just fine.
rolston was tried at center for new jersey and was found very much wanting. he was moved back to center in the 2008-09 playoffs on the 4th line, which is the only place i think he could be effective as a center. he has diminished speed and diminished interest in defensive play.
Really? He took 180 draws in 08-09; he really had a few games at center?
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
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by John Fischer on Jul 31, 2010 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Rolston was brought here because he was a center
Lou thought he found his 2nd line center with Rolston. But since Rolston didn’t do well on faceoffs and got injured in 2008-09 it shortened his time at center. Now since Arnott is here and they found Elias to center that linewhen Rollie got injured and was terrible after that, Rolston is now a winger.
Mathew Barnaby to Lyle Odelein: "Cornelius, as we like to call him, gets under your skin. Planet of the Apes. Look at him. Seriously. He looks like Cornelious."
Odelein to Barnaby: "He should take a look at his wife. She's God-awful to look at."
by RolliePollieKovy on Jul 31, 2010 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions
from TG in september 2008
iirc he started there and then sutter changed things up rather quickly. but he took 31 faceoffs in the playoffs, so he definitely played center there.
Fair enough. Point conceded.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Jul 31, 2010 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Wayne Primeau would be an interesting option. He’s got size and speed and was pretty decent last year in Toronto.
In Lou We Trust: The system hates us, man.
"Pfft, Wii’s where it’s at. *Swings toy plastic racquet, separates shoulder"- RudyKelly
by Kevin Sellathamby on Jul 31, 2010 7:07 PM EDT reply actions
How old is he?
Mathew Barnaby to Lyle Odelein: "Cornelius, as we like to call him, gets under your skin. Planet of the Apes. Look at him. Seriously. He looks like Cornelious."
Odelein to Barnaby: "He should take a look at his wife. She's God-awful to look at."
by RolliePollieKovy on Jul 31, 2010 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions
34.
In Lou We Trust: The system hates us, man.
"Pfft, Wii’s where it’s at. *Swings toy plastic racquet, separates shoulder"- RudyKelly
by Kevin Sellathamby on Jul 31, 2010 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Idk
Primeau would be ok as a Devil. I think I would rather see Zharkov on the fourth line then Primeau. Although I wouldn’t object it for like 500,000 or 600,000 for a year.
Mathew Barnaby to Lyle Odelein: "Cornelius, as we like to call him, gets under your skin. Planet of the Apes. Look at him. Seriously. He looks like Cornelious."
Odelein to Barnaby: "He should take a look at his wife. She's God-awful to look at."
by RolliePollieKovy on Jul 31, 2010 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I like Wayne, he's got truculence!
There is nothing quite as satisfying as out running security after you've punched out a Flyers fan!
"I was in the moment, and the moment said smack you." - Bruce Willis
I’ll take my chances on Zharkov. Let’s stay within the organization as much as we can.
He got very unlucky with his goal scoring last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was capable of 15-20 goals this year, law of averages has to catch up with him at some point, especially when you see Salvador’s pop-up goal last year against Ottawa, other guys like Mike Green scoring from center ice, and own goals, etc.
Yankees in baseball, Giants in football and Devils in hockey. It's that simple. I have no off-season.
I'm not too worried about the third-line center spot
I think it will go to one of the prospects, and I think it will be a relatively low-pressure position.
Even though playing against top lines takes away some of their offensive production, the Parise-Zajac combination should continue playing against top competition. Those guys can thrive in that role and can continue to produce points very effectively. Also, if we do keep Kovalchuk we will finally have two good scoring lines, which we haven’t had since, arguably, 2001. Our third line would only be expected to not give up too many goals and to chip in to the offense without having to carry it. And if we presume that Rolston and Clarkson are the third-line wingers, the third-line center will have a lot of veteran, defensively responsible help to cover for his mistakes.
I think very highly of our wingers. We are lucky to have some really fantastic two-way wingers. They play great defense, but my concern is getting out of our own zone and being able to generate more chances and get goals on more of our chances. I think we should fill the third-line center spot with offense, not defense, in mind.
Also, I think the only way that Zubrus doesn’t get shipped out is if a unicorn descends from the heavens and takes Rolston away from us. And even then, I would still prefer to put Zubes on the wing and bring in more of a playmaking prospect to center the third line.
I agree with the Dr.
Although I respect and very much see the value Parise and Zajac offer playing against the opposing teams’ top line, Id really like to see a situation where they were not counted on to do that game in and game out. We have a big advantage in that ZZ is more than capable, and we can put them out there whenever the coach wants to. However, I agree it takes away from the mindset of ZZ when expected to control the other teams top line.
We do have the best goals-against, we do limit shots, we have one of the better goalies in the League. But I think we can be much more of an offensive threat as a team, if we have a defensively-responsible (Eric Belanger would be ideal IMO) Center coupled with wingers that can approach the shutdown ability of ZZ. I actually see another type of player that can help in this regard other than just shut the other team down. I see the role of Agitator as a good way to slow opposing teams’ top line down. I have watched the Dallas Stars play (as Morrow is one of my favorite players) and see the value of Steve Ott, a Center (56.8% FO) that angers opposing top lines while potting 20+ goals playing 16-17 minutes a game. I think a player of that ilk (something that David Clarkson can be if he doesnt have be the fighter necessarily) would do as much to slow down top lines as a defensive-minded Center could, and we would not have to sign (or pay) a player such as Belanger.
Either way we go about it, I think the Devils would be a stronger, more effective team if ZZ was not expected to play against the opposing teams’ top line each and every night.
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
how about the mindset of the opposing forwards knowing they have to go against parise and zajac?
having a top line that can beat other teams’ top lines is an enormous advantage.
I dont disagree with that, I think that leads to lower scoring games in general, the two top lines cancel each other out. Maybe this year with Kovalchuk for the entire season, that changes where even if the top line is canceled out by the other team’s top line, our second line of Kovy-Arnott-Elias will tip the offensive scales heavily to our advantage.
I agree we have an enormous advantage, but we need a line that backs that up with more offense
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
If your best chance for offense is muted because they are playing against the other teams best chance for offense, where does that leave your team? Even, does it not?
However, if we have a defensively responsible 3C and a 3rd line that can take Line 1’s job in stopping opposing teams Line 1, then our Line 1 becomes more effective offensively.
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
it’s not muted when you have players like zajac and parise. ask pavel datsyuk how muted his offense is. you are assuming a ton here.
i also don’t think there is any center available who can do that job better than dainius zubrus. nor do i think it’s a good idea to have a line 3 matching against a line 1. that’s why using line 1 on line 1 is great – because it gets your top line out there a lot, instead of matching offenseless clods like pandolfo and madden against top lines and praying they can bury a puck. i understand i just created a false dichotomy and that there are still excellent ‘two-way’ players – none of them are available, however.
Besides the fact that Datsyuk has someone like Zetterberg often playing on a seperate line and Detroit boats two of the best Offensive Defenseman in the League, Datsyuk’s offense does suffer because he is a superb defensive player. If Datsyuk was ‘allowed’ to go on offense more, he would put up better numbers. I dont think that’s assuming anything in that regard.
I am assuming that Zubrus wont be here to Center our third line. If he is, well then I suggest him being our 3C without question.
If your argument is that “none of them are available” as far as two-way Centers, well thats a different argument.
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
i don’t think it does. i don’t believe that offense and defense are these two separate entities. i believe that for the most part, the best offensive forwards are the best defensive forwards. they do this because they are able to possess the puck more and deny the other team the puck, thereby preventing goals. there are obviously players who are better in the defensive zone like datsyuk, but the best defense is a good offense. it may be that datsyuk could score more against other lines, but he’s much more valuable playing the role that he is.
i see no reason to assume that zubrus will not be here. he is quoted in a lithuanian paper saying that new jersey has assured him he will be here.
if i could read lithuanian i’d love to see that quote, but alas, there’s no point. i’m skeptical that lou assured him that he will be staying FOR SURE – that’s a big promise to make given the desperate nature of our cap situation. the only way he’s not going is if lou finds a taker for rolston or white and gets them to waive their NTCs.
It’s a bit of a generalization to say that the best offensive forwards are the best defensive forwards because we do see players put up tons of points and end up a minus player because they are terrible defensively. A good offense can lessen the impact of a variety of defensive deficiencies, but i don’t think that makes it the best defense. The best defense is comprised of players that are good offensively AND defensively.
Let me posit this argument though for why Parise and Zajac should be playing against the opposition’s top players:
In 08-09 the ZZPops line scored 69 even-strength goals between the three of them. I think you can say the 2nd line that year was Elias-Rolston-Gionta, who scored a combined 43 ES goals. The next three forwards in goal scoring were Zubrus, Clarkson, and Madden. That third line chipped in 34 ES goals.
In 09-10 ZZPops scored 61 ES goals. Elias-Rolston-Bergfors/Kovalchuk scored 42 ES goals. Zubrus-Clarkson-Niedermayer scored 27 ES goals.
The decline in output from the ZZPops line is actually more than accounted for by Langenbrunner’s poor goal total. He went from 23 ES goals in 08-09 to 13 in 09-10. Zach went from 31 to 29 and Zajac went from 15 to 19.
The other two lines were decimated by injury, yet managed to pot a similar number of even strength goals in 09-10 as they did in 08-09. That suggests that those lines benefited offensively from their more favorable matchups. Elias played 19 fewer games, Rolston played 16 more games, Zubrus lost 31 games, and Clarkson lost 36 games in 09-10 as compared to 08-09.
Barring freak injuries like we had last season, I think that by matching up ZZPops against the opposition’s top line we can expect a combined 60-70 ES goals out of them, and perhaps 65-75 if we do not. The Kovy-Arnott-Elias line (if that is indeed the way the line combos work) can be counted on to provide more offense than our second line has in past seasons, so they will probably score between 50-65 ES goals.
The real payoff would come by upgrading the offensive ability of our third line. Instead of expecting them to combine for 30 ES goals playing against the opponents’ top line, a line of Rolston, Clarkson, and a more offensively-minded center than Niedermayer (I’m thinking Zubrus or Josefson) could score 35-45 ES goals. Such a line would give the team better offensive consistency if one of the top two lines goes cold.
To summarize, I think the offense lost by playing ZZPops against top competition is small, but the offense that could be gained by a third line that doesn’t have to be a classic checking line is big and gives the team better depth and consistency.
notice that i didn’t say all of the best offensive players are the best defensive players, or that points are the best measure of this. hell, kovalchuk is a good example, he’s not been a very good territorial player in his NHL career, he’s just been a shooting percentage machine.
i’d be shocked if ZZ pops had 70 ES goals next year – langenbrunner is no spring chicken and while he did have a good offensive year last year, large declines are not unheard of.
don’t understand what salary cap you are looking at – NJ can get by with 21 players just by dealing salvador. they don’t need to move zubrus.
Dealing Salvador alone means we have only 20 players on the roster including Zharkov, Pelley and Leblond at forward, and Salmela who is injured as well as Fraser. $600K leftover means one minimum salary player, which needs to be a Defenseman to replace Salmela. That’s a poor roster decision, what if someone gets hurt?
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
that doesn’t make any sense. if salmela is injured, the devils put him on LTIR and go with a 21 man roster.
The Devils are $2.3M over the cap with 21 players listed on CapGeek. One of those players (Salmela) is starting the season on the IR and you need to fill his roster spot. If you deal Salvador, that leaves $1.2 M in cap space for two defensemen. Technically, yes, they could make that work by bringing up Eckford and Taormina. But it would be far from ideal for several reasons. They would have just one spare player in case of injury/illness and that one player would have to play both D and wing if called upon. If a stomach virus hits multiple players on the team they would have to put one of those players on LTIR in order to bring up players from the minors to replace them, and the player on IR would not be able to play in a game for 2 weeks even though he would probably get over the virus in a matter of days. Additionally, such a cap situation is an impediment to the development of our more important prospects, particularly the ones who are more ready for the NHL like Corrente, Josefson, and Tedenby. Finally, having so little wiggle room under the cap makes it impossible for the Devils to make any trade-deadline deals to patch any holes they find during the season.
1: the devils could still use urbom and if they started out the season with a 20 man roster, they could accumulate enough space to use any of their young players as the 21st man. they also could do what san jose did last year, constantly shuttling someone between albany and lowell on days off to increase cap space.
2: while going with minimal cap space is risky, it’s still better than going without zubrus, because zubrus himself solves a lot of possible roster issues.
3: the devils weren’t going to make any deadline deals anyway.
this is all assuming that lou is unwilling to send along a bunch of stuff to get rid of rolston.
This is what I came up with using the Capgeek calculator. This is a 21-man roster with Salmela not counting against the Cap, only 12 forwards and Fraser, Eckford and Taormina as 5, 6 and 7th Defenseman.
FORWARDS
Zach Parise ($3.125m) / Jason Arnott ($4.500m) / Jamie Langenbrunner ($2.800m)
Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.000m) / Travis Zajac ($3.887m) / Patrik Elias ($6.000m)
Brian Rolston ($5.062m) / Dainius Zubrus ($3.400m) / David Clarkson ($2.666m)
P-L Letourneau-Leblond ($0.525m) / Rod Pelley ($0.550m) / Vladimir Zharkov ($0.850m)
DEFENSEMEN
Anton Volchenkov ($4.250m) / Andy Greene ($0.737m)
Colin White ($3.000m) / Henrik Tallinder ($3.375m)
Mark Fraser ($0.500m) / Tyler Eckford ($0.550m)
/ Matthew Taormina ($0.510m)
GOALTENDERS
Martin Brodeur ($5.200m) /Johan Hedberg ($1.500m)
BUYOUTS: Jay Pandolfo ($0.833m) / Andrew Peters ($0.166m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $59,989,167; BONUSES: $740,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $150,833
There is little to no room to ice a full roster by only trading Salvador. I can only hope we get rid of Rolston, but Im not holding my breath with that NTC and ugly contract hanging around our necks.
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
And going back to the quote in that lithuanian paper – even if the Devils COULD do what you suggest they do (which I think would be unwise), Lou can’t possibly assure Zubrus that he is staying for sure unless he has a deal in place to get rid of Rolston. If Eckford or Taormina go down with an injury in training camp, who is cheap enough to take their place? The only options are Dan Kelly, Harry Young, and Rob Davison.
I like Zubrus but we have a lot of depth at forward and are very thin at D right now. Trading only Salvador and cutting things that close to the cap max makes it impossible to build this team properly. You trade Zubrus as well and you have the space to pick and choose the D prospects that perform the best in camp, give ice time to one of our top forward prospects, and have room to make a deadline deal for help at forward and at D. How can you say the Devils won’t make a deadline deal anyway? There are ALWAYS holes to fill every year.
the salary cap does not work the way you think it does. there is still room for urbom on a 21 man roster with sestito. the way that bonuses are calculated against the cap is complicated, but basically the devils can fit in anyone with a salary (NOT bonuses) less than the cap space remaining. so this lineup works:
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Patrik Elias ($6.000m) / Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.000m) / Brian Rolston ($5.062m)
Jason Arnott ($4.500m) / Travis Zajac ($3.887m) / Dainius Zubrus ($3.400m)
Zach Parise ($3.125m) / Jamie Langenbrunner ($2.800m) / David Clarkson ($2.666m)
Vladimir Zharkov ($0.850m) / Rod Pelley ($0.550m) / P-L Letourneau-Leblond ($0.525m)
/ Tim Sestito ($0.500m)
DEFENSEMEN
Anton Volchenkov ($4.250m) / Henrik Tallinder ($3.375m)
Colin White ($3.000m) / Alexander Urbom ($0.870m)
Andy Greene ($0.737m) /
Mark Fraser ($0.500m)
GOALTENDERS
Martin Brodeur ($5.200m) /Johan Hedberg ($1.500m)
BUYOUTS: Jay Pandolfo ($0.833m) / Andrew Peters ($0.166m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $60,299,167; BONUSES: $1,050,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $150,833
it also works if you replace sestito with salmela when he comes off IR. now the devils could get in bonus trouble next year, but that’s next year, and they have to get rid of someone next year regardless.
the devils are better served increasing zubrus’s value this season anyway. and again, zubrus can play all 3 forward positions, so that’s a big help. it’d be great if NJ could get of rolston and i’d give up a 1st round pick and a minor prospect to do it, but this is the contingency if they don’t manage to do it.
How did you get the Devils bonus to be $1.05M? Capgeek lists our bonus as $740K, so what changes did you make (curious, I just dont get it)?
Even with this, you delay trouble for next year while excluding anyone like Tedenby or Josefson being able to make the team this year, regardless of their performance in Camp.
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
i added urbom.
tedenby is unlikely to make the team and if josefson is held in the AHL, he wouldn’t be a UFA until july 2018 instead of july 2017 (assuming the new CBA maintains the same free agency age).
Gotcha.
Still see Zubrus going, hope they can manage to keep him though.
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
You’re still short a 7th defenseman, it’s still impossible for Josefson, Tedenby, or Corrente to make the team even if they have a fantastic camp and show that they’re ready for the NHL, you still don’t have room to bring up a spare player if two players are lost to a short-term illness or day-to-day injury, and you can’t make any deadline deals. It’s just not smart cap management, and as you say, next year they will have to trade another player anyway with raises to Parise and Greene looming. I like Zubrus, but shipping him out gives us a lot more flexibility to do the right thing for the team and for the development of our prospects, and the team will have room at the deadline to trade for a player we need (including a player similar to Zubrus, should we need something like that). Who cares if we tear it up in the regular season with Zubrus on the roster but can’t make the roster tweaks necessary for a long playoff run?
because roster tweaks at the deadline are highly overrated?
i’m not short a 7th D, the team can have either a 7th D or a 12th forward but not both.
it is possible for corrente to be on the team in a short time if new jersey has someone shuttling between lowell and newark.
it is unlikely that either josefson or tedenby will merit being on this team given what they are being paid. and if they do, then we can make a trade.
er, that should read, 13th forward.
corrente puts new jersey $58,000 over the salary cap. with days of having $600,000 in cap room, that room would free up in probably two months or so.
anyway the best solution, which i hadn’t really considered until now, is exposing rolston to re-entry waivers and hoping someone bites.
Even if someone did bite, we’d be paying $2.5675M for the next two years for a player not on our roster.
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
I would question that, wasting Cap space just stinks, and Rolston is still serviceable, he just makes too much money
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
There is no reason to buy Rolston out. Like with Chris Drury and about every New York Ranger, he is a solid third line player, but Drury and Rolston, they were signed as top-6 forwards coming off strong seasons in Buffalo and Minnesota respectively, and they have not lived up to that quality. As third liners, they are valuable.
Yankees in baseball, Giants in football and Devils in hockey. It's that simple. I have no off-season.
Langenbrunner is no spring chicken, agreed, and some decline is expected but he’s been a better offensive player in his 30s than he was when he was younger. He was the victim of a lot of line shuffling last year and didn’t always get to play with Parise and Zajac. He got virtually the same number of shots in 09-10 as he did in 08-09 – the difference in goal total came from a poor shooting percentage. He also notched a career high in assists. I think his 29-goal season was an anomaly but he’s still well capable of putting up 20-25 goals with about 15-20 of them at even strength. Couple that with Zajac’s tremendous improvement and Zach’s consistent performance and I think that line can continue to produce 60-70 ES goals this season.
Having that defensively responsible third line is far more effective at home, where you generally get the final say in line matchups. It doesn’t do quite so well on the road, and it also doesn’t do you as much good against a team that has multiple scoring lines or no line that is such a threat as to merit putting shadows on them.
Personally, I despise matching lines unless the other team has one terrific line and a bunch of average guys rounding out the roster (think Tampa during the 2007 playoffs when they had St. Louis-Lecavalier-Richards and pretty much nothing else to offer). I’d prefer to make the other team respond to what we’re doing instead of the other way around…. and I’d just as soon play the top line (or top two lines) a few extra minutes and maximize what I can get from my best guys.
i have seen herique play alot and it seems lk he is ready for the nhl soring 77 pionts for the windsor spifires lat season 54 games. (38G, 39A). I think the devils 3rd line sould be 2 way players.
by Roberto Galizia on Aug 3, 2010 10:32 AM EDT reply actions
Okay, my take is we cannot move players from their positions. For example, I don’t Elias ever really felt comfortable at center last year. I also believe Zubrus’ best value to this team is when he uses his size off the wing to power his way to the net. He’s not always doing that, but when he does, there’s nobody better on our team to draw attention, and at times draw penalties, which is something we need to embrace this year with considerable offensive talent on this team. I would prefer we not trade Danius, but obviously that is not in our hands, and it looks likely that we will not be on the team, with lots of cap to clear.
Now, with that said, I also do not believe that Rod Pelley is a third liner, his value is with PL3 and likely Zharkov at 4th line. I also believe that Adam Henrique could use some seasoning in the minors, but Josefson, despite not playing on NHL-size ice, is ready. Signing Belanger for the $2M+ he will likely demand might be a squeeze under the cap, but we’ll see.
As far as Henrique, we all know that the Devils get hit very hard early in the season with injuries, and he would be the second forward in line to assume a role at the NHL level if someone went down, depending on who went down, Tedenby would be my first call-up, and Palmieri would be third. As for defense, it would be Corrente, Urbom, Eckford in that order depending on who makes the team out of camp.
Yankees in baseball, Giants in football and Devils in hockey. It's that simple. I have no off-season.
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