Martin Brodeur's "Adjusted" Save Percentage (and the Rest of the League Leaders)

by FrankG929 on Jul 5, 2010 6:16 PM EDT

As I indicated in my discussion 2009-2010 Shot Data From Around the League, Martin Brodeur's save percentage would see a positive impact based on the seemed tendency of Devils official scorers at the Rock to under-count shots. I went ahead and copied some of the goaltender league leader data from www.nhl.com into the spreadsheet I created for that post. And as expected, there was a significant change, actually even more than I guesstimated in that post. I took the goaltending leaders, sorted them by shots against and saved the first page of data.

The table is sorted by Sv%. I added columns for the adjustment in saves, save percentage, new ranking, and change from the "standard" rank.

Rank	Player	Team	GP	GS	SA	Sv	Sv%	Adj Saves	Adj Sv%	Adj Rank	Change
1	Tuukka Rask	BOS	45	39	1221	1137	0.931	-16.7	0.930	1	0
2	Ryan Miller	BUF	69	68	2098	1948	0.929	4.9	0.929	2	0
3	Tomas Vokoun	FLA	63	62	2081	1924	0.925	-16.0	0.924	4	-1
4	Jimmy Howard	DET	63	61	1849	1708	0.924	36.4	0.925	3	1
5	Jaroslav Halak	MTL	45	43	1386	1281	0.924	-47.2	0.922	8	-3
6	Evgeni Nabokov	SJS	71	71	2168	1998	0.922	-62.4	0.919	10	-4
7	Henrik Lundqvist	NYR	73	72	2109	1942	0.921	-34.3	0.920	9	-2
8	Miikka Kiprusoff	CGY	73	72	2035	1872	0.92	57.9	0.922	7	1
9	Ilya Bryzgalov	PHX	69	69	1961	1805	0.92	70.6	0.923	5	4
10	Jonas Hiller	ANA	59	58	1860	1708	0.918	-63.7	0.915	13	-3
11	Craig Anderson	COL	71	71	2233	2047	0.917	-80.6	0.914	15	-4
12	Martin Brodeur	NJD	77	76	2004	1836	0.916	165.8	0.923	6	6
13	Cam Ward	CAR	47	45	1409	1290	0.916	15.3	0.916	12	1
14	Johan Hedberg	ATL	47	42	1355	1240	0.915	1.5	0.915	14	0
15	Tim Thomas	BOS	43	43	1221	1117	0.915	-18.4	0.914	16	-1
16	Roberto Luongo	VAN	68	67	1915	1748	0.913	140.5	0.919	11	5
17	Chris Mason	STL	61	61	1699	1551	0.913	-5.3	0.913	17	0
18	Marty Turco	DAL	53	52	1605	1465	0.913	-57.1	0.910	19	-1
19	Carey Price	MTL	41	39	1244	1135	0.912	-42.9	0.909	22	-3
20	Pekka Rinne	NSH	58	54	1541	1404	0.911	-27.7	0.909	20	0
21	Jose Theodore	WSH	47	43	1352	1231	0.911	-29.9	0.908	23	-2
22	Brian Elliott	OTT	55	48	1424	1294	0.909	36.2	0.911	18	4
23	Antero Niittymaki	TBL	49	46	1388	1261	0.909	-30.9	0.906	26	-3
24	Jonathan Quick	LAK	72	72	1927	1747	0.907	58.7	0.909	21	3
25	Dwayne Roloson	NYI	50	49	1555	1410	0.907	-41.3	0.904	28	-3
26	Ondrej Pavelec	ATL	42	40	1353	1226	0.906	1.4	0.906	27	-1
27	Marc-Andre Fleury	PIT	67	66	1772	1604	0.905	41.8	0.907	24	3
28	Niklas Backstrom	MIN	60	58	1632	1474	0.903	62.2	0.907	25	3
29	Steve Mason	CBJ	58	55	1653	1490	0.901	-33.6	0.899	30	-1
30	Jeff Deslauriers	EDM	48	48	1529	1377	0.901	16.9	0.902	29	1

Obviously there's correlation with the shot data. It would seem they are most accurate counting shots in Atlanta, or at least closest to the league average. Nabokov in San Jose and Anderson in Colorado would see the largest loss of positions at 4. Behind Brodeur, Vancouver's Luongo at 5 spots makes up the next most ground, followed by Elliott in Ottawa at 4. The numbers aren't going to be exact because I simply used 1/2 the number of starts to determine the impact of the shot counting variance. I'd guess there probably wouldn't be more than a 5% difference if I were to search the number of home games vs. road games for each goalie.

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not 1 Flyer or Blackhawk up there and they both went to the finals.

Donald Vasquez

by don_vas on Jul 8, 2010 3:29 PM EDT reply actions

They got hot. That’s all you need in the playoffs. I wouldn’t hold your breath on Michael Leighton becoming a top goalie anytime soon. Niemi might given his relative youth.

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by John Fischer on Jul 8, 2010 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s why I question some teams perceived notion that because Chicago and Philly got to the Final with low-paid goaltenders. It will blow up in teams faces. I cannot imagine that San Jose will get any further with Niittymaki in nets…

by Skuba7 on Jul 9, 2010 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions

As someone somewhere pointed out, no defense is going to stop every shot and when those shots do come, be it 30 per game or 20 per game, you still need someone reliable to stop them (see: Kane, Patrick v. Leighton, Michael – Game 6 SCF, OT).

That said, there is definitely a shift in how GM’s feel about goaltenders. Call it market correction or a product of the salary cap, but for now it looks like teams are cutting costs in net to free up money to afford skaters.

To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.

by elesias on Jul 9, 2010 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions

I have a hard time with the ‘market correction’ angle, because to me, still, the goaltenders are so vital to the entire team’s confidence, they effect how everyone else plays, on both teams. I understand paying Ovechkin $9.5MM or whatever he makes. But putting just $3MM total to your goaltending corps to me, is a recipe for disaster.

by Skuba7 on Jul 9, 2010 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Hmmmm, perhaps a study on salary breakdowns by position of the most recent Stanley Cup finalists is in order. I believe we’d see a trend toward increased salary on the blue line. Scribble, scribble, scribble, OK, it’s on my to-do list

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by FrankG929 on Jul 9, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Mike Chen did something similar recently. Might be a good place to start…

To "resign" is to voluntarily leave a position; retire. To "re-sign" is to sign again. When talking about free agents, please use the correct one.

by elesias on Jul 9, 2010 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

If you look at the last four Stanley Cup winners, all four teams out-shot their opponents by wide margins. I think that most GM’s recognize that consistently above average goaltending is very transient and difficult to find in one player (that doesn’t mean, though, that it doesn’t exist). Since out-shooting your opposition is the way to go in the long-run, there’s no point in investing a ton in a goalie when all you’ll need is an average tender.

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by GoPens! on Jul 9, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly. Given that the playoffs are such a crapshoot by it’s very nature, a goaltender getting hot regardless of how much they make is going to make a big difference for their team’s success. Like Ward in Carolina in 2006 (he was AWFUL in the regular season); or Halak in Montreal in 2010.

In a way, this speaks better of Brodeur, Roy, Hasek, and other legends because they weren’t just above the league average but consistently so. It’s why you shouldn’t draft a goalie high or offer them big dollars unless they are in that caliber of the position.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Jul 9, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions