Brian Rolston "Does" Hit the Net Fairly Often and Other Shot-Based Info

by FrankG929 on Jul 6, 2010 10:27 PM EDT

Editor's Note: The stats within are only for 5-on-5 hockey from the 2009-10 season. Yep, even strength only, as that's all the info Behind the Net has, which is nothing to sneeze at given that the majority of hockey is played at ES. Still, it's interesting information to chew on and Frank did a good job putting it together.

In the Martin v. Tallinder FanPost, Murdoc and I had a short discussion about Brian Rolston's ability to hit the net. Seems I was a bit, well, wrong, when I implied that Murdoc (or any one of us bloggers for that matter) would be able to hit the net better than Brian. Behind The Net has data based on shot type for all the players. I used a subset of that data to determine who is best at hitting the net. Using the Total portion, I added columns that calculated and ranked the percentage of missed shots out of all shots taken. The results were surprising, and not just for Mr. Rolston. I can use this data to conclusively predict that Dainius Zubrus will be among the next Devil players traded. You'll see why I say that when you see the table, which I've subtly modified to include a few recent ex-Devils.

I used 20 games and 10 minutes per games as my cut-off. Primarily because I wanted to see where Paul Martin fit in and also because of where someone else appeared in the table. So, here are the current and some recent ex-Devils. I also ranked defensemen separately from forwards. There are 344 forwards and 225 defensemen that made the cut, so you have a frame of reference when looking at the bottom feeders, so to speak.

TOI/60 - Time On Ice in minutes. G - Goals. SH - Shots on goal saved by goaltender. MS - Missed net.
DIST - Average shooting distance. SPCT - shooting percentage (European-style, includes missed shots.)
Total also includes backhands, deflections and wrap-arounds and will not match the sum of the other three categories.

NAME	POS	TEAM	GP	TOI/60	G	SH	MS	DIST	SPCT	MS/ATT	MS Rank
NICKLASBERGFORS	C	ATL	81	12.74	11	156	31	31.5	5.6	16.58%	1
MATTHALISCHUK	C	NSH	20	10.18	1	20	4	26.4	4	16.67%	2
DAINIUSZUBRUS	C	N.J	51	13.6	9	66	18	27	9.7	21.43%	19
BRIANROLSTON	C	N.J	80	13.27	13	155	47	36.4	6	23.27%	51
JAYPANDOLFO	LW	N.J	52	11.81	4	59	19	32.5	4.9	24.36%	66
TRAVISZAJAC	C	N.J	82	14.88	19	138	45	31.1	9.4	24.59%	74
ROBNIEDERMAYER	C	N.J	71	13.49	9	64	21	27.9	9.6	24.71%	78
ZACHPARISE	LW	N.J	81	15.44	27	234	77	31.7	8	24.76%	79
JASONARNOTT	C	N.J	63	14.67	13	137	47	30.9	6.6	25.54%	92
ILYAKOVALCHUK	RW	N.J	76	15.73	29	153	60	33	12	28.17%	166
PATRIKELIAS	LW	N.J	58	13.52	15	88	35	31.4	10.9	28.46%	184
JAMIELANGENBRUNNER	RW	N.J	81	14.58	11	143	57	36.5	5.2	28.50%	187
DEANMCAMMOND	LW	N.J	62	10.9	6	70	28	29.5	5.8	28.57%	190
DAVIDCLARKSON	RW	N.J	46	12.03	8	77	35	33.7	6.7	31.25%	260
VLADIMIRZHARKOV	RW	N.J	40	10.16	0	48	27	35.9	0	36.00%	326
ANSSISALMELA	D	N.J	38	12.67	1	35	15	53.6	2	30.00%	59
MIKEMOTTAU	D	N.J	79	18.52	2	50	22	48.8	2.7	30.56%	68
PAULMARTIN	D	N.J	22	16.86	1	17	8	48.5	3.8	32.00%	87
BRYCESALVADOR	D	N.J	79	16.4	4	41	20	57.5	6.2	32.79%	97
JOHNODUYA	D	ATL	67	16.69	3	50	26	50.7	3.8	34.21%	114
ANTONVOLCHENKOV	D	N.J	64	16.38	4	57	32	51.6	4.3	35.96%	140
MARTINSKOULA	D	N.J	52	15.49	2	28	16	54.6	4.3	36.36%	149
COLINWHITE	D	N.J	81	16.91	2	43	25	59.9	2.9	36.76%	156
HENRIKTALLINDER	D	N.J	82	16.47	4	43	30	44.9	5.2	41.10%	198
ANDYGREENE	D	N.J	78	18.44	2	55	40	52.3	2.1	42.11%	201
MARKFRASER	D	N.J	61	12.14	3	21	22	56.7	6.5	51.16%	222

As far as highly rated Devil or ex-Devils forwards go; Nicklas Bergfors led the league in shot accuracy (measured in this way) last year. Surprisingly, Matt Halischuk was second overall in the league out of players who played 10 minutes per game for at least 20 games. Next on the list of best Devil forwards was Dainius Zubrus. Since it would seem the Devils are trading forwards based on their ability to hit the net, Dainius is likely on the short list. But as far as Devil forwards go, Brian Rolston is next on the list and amongst the top 15% of forwards in the league. If you include defensemen, he ranks just outside the top 11%. Surprise, surprise.

Now, looking at a few other Devils; On defense, Anssi Salmela and, wait for it, Mike Mottau are the top two, both ranking in the top third of the league. If Andy Greene is to step into Paul Martin's skates as the #1 offensive defenseman, he has to practice his shooting. 10% more of his shots missed the net than did Martin's. I wouldn't be too concerned at Zach Parise's almost 25% rate. Other top forwards who rank below him include, Vincent Lacavalier (25.99%, 106th among forwards), Mike Knuble (who led the league in shooting percentage out of "full-time" players, 26.28%, 114th), Sidney Crosby (26.96%, 127th), the much drooled over Tomas Plekanec (27.27, 143rd), and Alexander Ovechkin (31.11%, 257th). Oh, and the player with over 20 goals rated the lowest? Daniel Sedin, 34.31%, 314th. And our "buddy" down the turnpike, Jeff Carter, was next worst of 20 goal scorers, 33.70% and 305th. And going back to Parise; the only 20 goal scorers with a better shot accuracy were Henrik Sedin (21.97%, 29th), Matt Moulson (23.12%, 49th) and Rick Nash, (24.62%, 75th).

So when asked to determine which Sedin twin is which, have them each take 30 shots on net, the one that misses 10 or more is Daniel. Just for kicks, here are the league's 20 goal scorers:

NAME	POS	TEAM	GP	TOI/60	G	SH	MS	DIST	SPCT	MS/ATT	MS Rank
HENRIKSEDIN	C	VAN	82	14.79	22	103	29	23	14.3	21.97%	29
MATTMOULSON	LW	NYI	82	13.27	22	133	40	33.6	11.3	23.12%	49
RICKNASH	RW	CBJ	76	14.8	20	147	48	31.3	9.3	24.62%	75
ZACHPARISE	LW	N.J	81	15.44	27	234	77	31.7	8	24.76%	79
MICHAELCAMMALLERI	C	MTL	65	15.72	20	141	47	32.5	9.6	25.00%	80
CHRISSTEWART	RW	COL	77	13.7	24	148	51	31.5	10.8	25.63%	96
ALEXBURROWS	RW	VAN	82	13.65	25	150	52	28.6	11	25.74%	99
JOEPAVELSKI	LW	S.J	67	13.43	21	147	51	26.7	9.6	25.76%	100
MIKAELSAMUELSSON	RW	VAN	74	13.58	21	143	50	34.7	9.8	25.91%	103
MIKEKNUBLE	RW	WSH	69	13.54	23	101	36	27.8	14.4	26.28%	114
COREYPERRY	RW	ANA	82	16.16	20	182	67	25.3	7.4	26.91%	125
SIDNEYCROSBY	C	PIT	81	14.99	34	168	62	29.3	12.9	26.96%	127
WOJTEKWOLSKI	LW	PHX	80	14.28	20	131	49	29.9	10	27.22%	142
STEVENSTAMKOS	C	T.B	82	13.71	23	138	52	29.6	10.8	27.37%	147
ILYAKOVALCHUK	RW	N.J	76	15.73	29	153	60	33	12	28.17%	166
JAMESNEAL	LW	DAL	78	13.89	22	128	51	30.5	10.9	28.49%	186
NICKLASBACKSTROM	C	WSH	82	14.97	21	143	57	33.3	9.5	28.50%	187
PHILKESSEL	LW	TOR	70	14.97	21	190	77	32.2	7.3	28.84%	202
PATRICKKANE	RW	CHI	82	15.01	21	176	72	26.7	7.8	29.03%	207
NIKLASHAGMAN	LW	CGY	82	13.04	21	156	64	29.3	8.7	29.09%	209
PATRICKMARLEAU	C	S.J	82	14.55	26	153	64	29.4	10.7	29.49%	219
MARIANGABORIK	LW	NYR	76	15.78	27	155	65	23	10.9	29.55%	221
JAMIEBENN	LW	DAL	82	12.36	20	126	54	29.9	10	30.00%	232
LOUIERIKSSON	LW	DAL	82	14.33	20	134	58	26.9	9.4	30.21%	238
ALEXOVECHKIN	LW	WSH	72	16	36	217	98	35.3	10.3	31.11%	257
ALEXANDERSEMIN	LW	WSH	73	14.18	30	171	78	34.6	10.8	31.33%	261
DUSTINPENNER	LW	EDM	82	13.39	23	121	58	25.8	11.4	32.40%	284
JUSSIJOKINEN	LW	CAR	81	12.84	20	87	42	31.9	13.4	32.56%	286
JAROMEIGINLA	RW	CGY	82	16.35	22	163	82	35.7	8.2	33.47%	300
BOBBYRYAN	RW	ANA	81	14.96	24	161	81	28.9	9	33.47%	301
JEFFCARTER	C	PHI	74	13.53	20	183	93	30.3	6.8	33.70%	305
DANIELSEDIN	LW	VAN	63	14.61	21	134	70	29.2	9.3	34.31%	314

All FanPosts and FanShots are the respective work of the author and not representative of the writers or other users of In Lou We Trust.

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Comments

I want to see Murdoc's stats!

:-)

by DrWhizBang on Jul 6, 2010 7:29 PM EDT reply actions

on SNES Stanley Cup Hockey about 20 years ago? I was awesome. On the tennis courts outside my college dorm room, probably somewhere in the high 200s on the charts above. Now, well, I’d just be that “veteran presence” or “mentor to the young guys” while sitting as a healthy scratch every night.

by Murdoc on Jul 7, 2010 6:46 AM EDT up reply actions

I just wish that Rolston would hit the inside part of the net more often.

I suffer from selective short term amnesia and have chosen to forget about the 2010 post season.

by Devil_Hard_Core on Jul 6, 2010 8:56 PM EDT reply actions

its not that i dont like rolston, its just that 5mill!!, and when he shoots i dont think he aims the shots where he wants them to go, he just shoots and prays..besides the 5mill (2.5-3mill) i would be happy

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by J-camps on Jul 6, 2010 9:17 PM EDT reply actions

agree!!

I suffer from selective short term amnesia and have chosen to forget about the 2010 post season.

by Devil_Hard_Core on Jul 6, 2010 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions

And also the fact that I have been caught napping while Rolston loads his shot up…

Yankees in baseball, Giants in football and Devils in hockey. It's that simple. I have no off-season.

by DownGoesAvery on Jul 7, 2010 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions

I think you may want to clearly state these are all 5 on 5 numbers, but other than that, good work.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
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by John Fischer on Jul 6, 2010 9:41 PM EDT reply actions

Thats a good point John. I would like to see Rolston’s PP Shooting % and his Miss%. I would guess that he misses more on the PP because he is on the point all the time just unloading bombs hoping it is going in the right direction.

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by slackdog_rm on Jul 6, 2010 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Not that I’m Frank, but Behind the Net only has the individual shooting stats for 5 on 5 play. So, I’m not sure how this could be proven clearly.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
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by John Fischer on Jul 6, 2010 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions

hey, I’m still learning where all these advanced stats are kept. But you’re right, these are 5-on-5 numbers only.

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by FrankG929 on Jul 6, 2010 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s no problem. It’s a learning process for, well, everyone. I’m still trying to figure things out. The world of adv. stats is still trying to figure things out, etc.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
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by John Fischer on Jul 6, 2010 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the more important number is that the Devils paid approximately $250K per goal from Rolston last year. I don’t care how often he gets his piddling shots on net, I care how often the go in the net. He could have the worst accuracy as far as getting shots onto the net, so long as Cupcake played harder and made his chances count.

But he didn’t. Ever. Anytime he just needs to use some muscle to fight for the puck, he just Roger Dorn’s it up and let’s the opposing defense take control.

Last year we paid less than $80K for each of Parise’s goals (granted he’s young and that number will go up with his next contract, but nobody denies that the value is still there). $140K for Zajac’s goals. Under $80k for each goal from Clarkie, and hell, he missed half of the season.

by Marty 4 Prez on Jul 6, 2010 10:56 PM EDT reply actions

Great Points

We all know Rolston has excellent form and great skills. Heck if you want to learn good form to improve your game watch Rolston. I always shoot better when I try to imitate his form. However, the question is not about the accuracy of his shot but how hard he works to create good scoring opportunities and does his age slow him down too much to be effective.

Certainly at $5 mil he’s not producing what he should. I’ve always like Rolston but does he deserve 60% of the salary of Kovy (that’s if he signs at about 8.6 mil)? He’ll only score 1/4 the number of goals.

by Michael 15 on Jul 6, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Always love a Major League reference. It’s been thrown around here that Zharkov is Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn. He may need some glasses (ranked 326 out of the 344 forwards).

As for Rolston, I was curious about what type of shots had the best percentages (S%):
16.88% slap shot (3.8%)
37.14% snap shot (0.0%)
24.28% wrist shot (5.4%)

For Rolston, and probably most of the players, when taking a wrist shot, your aiming for open areas (corners, top of the opening), thus more inclined to just miss the net. I’d much rather have a player hit the net, making the goalie work harder to make the save and contain the puck. It creates second, third chances and scrums in front of the net. Missing the net goes off the glass/boards and now its a fight to regain control.

In Lou We Trust: SBN Blog of the New Jersey Devils
"Hockey is the only job I know where you get paid to have a nap on the day of the game." - Chico Resch

by Matthew Ventolo on Jul 7, 2010 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions

I couldn’t think of any better way to describe him. Whereas I see guys like Parise, Elias, Zajac, Zubrus, and Clarkson battling like hell in the corners and in front of the net, I always see Dorn give up the puck and let it get cleared back out.

Maybe we would have better luck trading Salvador away (we’ve got enough grit on our blueline between Volchenkov, Tallinder, and White now) and make Dorn our honorary Mike Green D-man.

by Marty 4 Prez on Jul 7, 2010 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Well according to NHL.com stats Rolston had 232 total shots, 69 total missed shots and 20 total goals.

That is 77 PP and SH shots and 22 PP and SH missed shots, I’m guessing the majority of those would be on the PP. That would make his MS/ATT at 28.57%, which is better than at ES.

His shooting % on special teams was 11%. Which better that his ES of 8.38%

"Don't worry about my cap" -Lou Lamoriello

by C.J. Richey on Jul 6, 2010 11:04 PM EDT reply actions

Seems the like the solution here is: get Rolston on a PP and feed him a few pucks.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Jul 6, 2010 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Most definitely we all should have known prior to now that his issue isn’t accuracy but rather finishing with a goal. I think his low shooting percentage may have been the reason for many believing he had bad accuracy. But i don’t know about the rest of you but doesn’t it seem no matter who is on the ice it seems they struggle getting the puck through. Especially on the powerplay.

by KingHellfire on Jul 8, 2010 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Whoops his special teams % would actually be slightly worse than at ES not better.

Kovalchuk’s special teams numbers are 137 shots and 57 misses. Which would be a MS/ATT of 41.6% which is pretty bad compared to Rolston.

Kovy’s ES shooting % was 18.95% and special teams was 8.76%

So Kovy really isn’t that great on the PP. His ES shooting % is pretty impressive though but it’s only slighty better than Elias, which is 17%

"Don't worry about my cap" -Lou Lamoriello

by C.J. Richey on Jul 6, 2010 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Bottom line

Brian scored 30+ goals in each of his three seasons in Minnesota, and granted his was injured his first year back here, but I was looking forward to 25 goals and around 50 points or so from him and a weapon on the PP. Instead, he has a combined 69 points this stint as a Devil, and 15 combined power play goals in two seasons with us this time, as opposed to 11 PP goals his final season in Minnesota.

Now, to this article’s point, Brian took fewer shots both seasons with us. He took 174 shots in 2008-09 and 232 last season, with a shooting percentage of 8.6 both seasons. His final year in Minnesota saw him take 289 shots (down from the previous years too) and a shooting percentage over 10. Most of his offensive stats including goals and points as a Devil both years are his lowest since 1997-98.

Yankees in baseball, Giants in football and Devils in hockey. It's that simple. I have no off-season.

by DownGoesAvery on Jul 7, 2010 12:35 AM EDT reply actions

Lets not forget Rolston didn’t play alot on the 2nd line which hurt his numbers. Certainly not as much as he did in Minnesota.

by KingHellfire on Jul 8, 2010 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions

what about Turnovers?

I don’t know about you but I noticed a lot from Rollie lately. IT seems to me he turns the puck over more than he should. Most games I’ve been to he’s done it. Both last year and this year he has done it. Rols is turning pucks over at ridiculous times. I don’t get it. Does he not realize it? I mean it seems to me he needs to go

by Devilman3030 on Jul 7, 2010 12:45 AM EDT reply actions

I have a possible wrench to these statistics...

Do you know what sort of shots each of these were? Wristshots? Backhanders? Deflections? Snapshots? Slapshots?

The reason I ask is because Rolston is known for one shot in particular, his cannon of a Slapshot and that’s the what I noticed miss hitting the net all season long. I honestly have no clue what sort of threat he is with any other sorts of shots, but to me his reputation was built on his slapper.

If you can go back and see what sort of shot he was taking and their individual accuracy this would be much more beneficial. Because if he was hitting the net with wristers and snapshots, but missing with his slapper he’s still going to be about as effective next year as he was this year from the point on a PP and just overall.

by Zelepukin on Jul 7, 2010 1:24 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah, the original discussion in the Tallinder thread has that info. It was just spawned because he’s frequently slammed for “always missing the net,” and when I was actually looking for it, I noticed he wasn’t as bad as I was lead to believe.

He’s got a great skill set, and with a little bit of work (almost seems like he expects the goals to happen instead of working on scoring them) and a little faster of a release fo rhte cannon, and he’d get back to that 30G form. As long as he gets the quality icetime to do it.

On his slapshots…3 goals, 64 saves, 13 missed (at even strength) So that’s 13 missed nets out of 80 shots at ES. That’s really, really good for such a cannon. Maybe his PP slappers go wide more often, we just don’t have that data.

by Murdoc on Jul 7, 2010 6:55 AM EDT up reply actions

The Behind the Net link Frank points to early in the post does break down 3 different shots: wrist shots, snap shots, and slap shots. It’s not everything you asked for, but it is something that answers part of your question.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Jul 7, 2010 7:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I would have to agree Zelepukin. However i saw a little light at the end of the tunnel his comfort level seemed much better once Kovy came on board. I think mainly because it took the heat off him having to be the go to guy on the point during the powerplay.

by KingHellfire on Jul 8, 2010 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions

The stats

Frank,
Thank you for taking the time to present some thought provoking information. I do have one comment. Speaking as someone new to the idea of pouring over hockey data, it would of helped me greatly in your article (and others like it) to have a key to the abbreviations. While a hockey fan for many years, that does not necessarily qualify me to know “hockey speak”. Some are self explanatory and others less so. I would like to get into your world yet find it a little difficult at times as everyone assumes we are on the same level. Thanks for your future consideration.

by Rat Lives on Jul 7, 2010 11:52 AM EDT reply actions

good point. While generally on behind the net the abbreviations appear on the page, when we suck out a portion of that data, pulling along with it the “glossary” would definitely be beneficial.

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by FrankG929 on Jul 7, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Added

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by FrankG929 on Jul 7, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Im watching game 3 from the playoffs this year on the nhl network right now.

Brian Rolston is playing pretty great in it.I can rember him getting a real real big goal in the game 7 of last years playoff disaster.I for one think even if he does nothing at all in the regular season and gets big goals at big times in the playoffs like he already has been in the way to short playoffs of late then hes kindda worth the pay.His pay is a little high but its not as if the world is going to end.

by Imperator_Celtic on Jul 7, 2010 11:35 PM EDT reply actions

I also think he is a great character guy seems like a real good guy, I also can’t recall him having issue with anyone with the team or management. Which nowadays in sports it’s hard to find a player who is a true team player.

by KingHellfire on Jul 8, 2010 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Rolston scored what would have been the game winning/series winning goal against Carolina if the Devils didn’t blow it at the end of the game.

"Don't worry about my cap" -Lou Lamoriello

by C.J. Richey on Jul 8, 2010 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions

I don’t know whether to laugh or cringe when I see various fan posts on places like Yahoo, TSN, and ESPN calling Kovy greedy and opining that he should just go sign in Russia for the megabucks.

I mean, they call him greedy, but hey, isn’t it the American way to get as much as you can for your services? That’s capitalism, right? (I don’t want to make this any kind of political post or whatever, just merely making an observation of the irony that I see in said posts).

by Marty 4 Prez on Jul 8, 2010 8:12 AM EDT reply actions

We just want it to be over, regardless of how it ends. All we get now is heartburn and headaches as guys we would like to see become Devils in the absence of a Kovy are signing elsewhere while Lou sits around and waits for him to make up his damned mind.

by Murdoc on Jul 8, 2010 8:21 AM EDT up reply actions