Parise or Kovalchuk?

…. because there are so many statements in this FanPost that are simply wrong.

Parise’s contract has nothing to do with Kovalchuk’s contract, except perhaps in a tangential sense that they’ll get similar amounts of money. We’ve been through the numbers in several different articles on this site, and there’s certainly enough money to accomodate Parise so long as the Devils want him back. Perhaps it will mean the “sacrifice” of a veteran or two, in that they won’t be re-signed (or not for anything close to what they make now)…. but aren’t we awfully high on some of the “kids” and their ability to step in? And because the Devils have drafted mostly in the 20s over the years, the cap hits on said “kids” is very reasonable (nothing even as high as a million, per CapGeek). In addition, Parise is only a restricted free agent, meaning the Devils simply have to tender a qualifying offer by July 1st if it gets that far and they’ll retain matching rights to any contract offered him.

Zajac will also get a healthy raise and so will Greene.

Travis Zajac is a complete non-issue at this point. Per the CBA, the Devils can’t even open negotiations on a contract extension until he enters the final year of his current contract. In this case, that means July 1st, 2012. Until that date starts getting close (and 22 months is not even in the same area code), there’s no particular reason to even worry about it…. a lot can happen between now and then. Another fly in this ointment is the possibility of another labor stoppage that summer. If things get as bad as 2004-2005 and the whole season gets wiped out, the Devils will never have the opportunity to negotiate an extension with Travis Zajac. He’ll go from “one-plus remaining on his deal” to “unrestricted free agent”, similar to how Scott Niedermeyer did.

Andy Greene is a different case. I’m sure Lou will negotiate with Greene’s agent at some point if he feels like re-signing him before July 1st. At the same time, Andy has the right to elect unrestricted free agency and test the market. Just because we (as fans) want a player back doesn’t mean he will be back — does anyone remember how strong the sentiment was on this blog for Paul Martin’s return?

Langebrunner will probrably leave and Arnott could also or re sign for about 3 million.

You might as well ask a psychic to predict next summer’s free agent frenzy, as doing so now is an exercise in futility. We don’t know who is going to vastly increase or decrease their value with this season’s play, who might get hurt, who might decide to retire or go to Europe, who will get re-signed in-season, etc. It is very easy to say so-and-so will be allowed to walk, or that Player Z will re-sign for a particular amount. Without anything in the way of supporting evidence, it is nothing more than baseless speculation, and that should be left to the Scott Burnsides of the world. It certainly shouldn’t be brought up as an argument as to why Parise might not be affordable for the Devils.

As with your past hypothesis on the Devils offense, I’m asking for some rational argument why that particular number has any grounding in reality, as opposed to being plucked out of thin air. A figure of $3 million seems awfully arbitrary.

They have a lot of excellent young players which could give them an elite team for the future

Are you referring to prospects such as Tedenby and Josefson? Do any of us have the slightest clue what any of them are going to turn into? Sure, they could turn into stars and give the Devils an elite team. They could also all be busts, and the Devils would be in a serious pickle.

I’m reminded of the adage about “birds in the hand” and “birds in the bush”. We know what Ilya Kovalchuk is…. whether or not you feel he is worth his asking price is a separate issue. We don’t know what the prospects are, yet. Adam Henrique could well be the next Travis Zajac…. or he could turn into this highly-drafted Devil’s center from the late 1990s.

The young core of Parise, Zajac, Urbon, Tedeby, Josefesen, Volchenkov and others will be great for a long time.

Three of those guys have never played a minute in the NHL. One of the remaining three has never played a minute for the Devils. While Parise is among the NHL’s elite, and Zajac is a very good player (albeit never an Olympian, All-Star, or award nominee), it is a tremendous leap to call the six of them “great for a long time”. Do we even know that Urbom, Tedenby, and Josefson are even going to make the NHL, whether this year or at some undefined point in the future?

If this year does not work out I think they should deal all the veterans that would waive their NTC’s

That won’t be very many players, then, at least if you’re hoping for anything in the neighborhood of a fair return. It would also mean disassembling the team and starting from scratch. If you do that, why would Parise re-sign for the long term? Why would Zajac be interested in re-signing when his contract is up? Would Lou Lamorello even be up for such a job, or would he sail off into the sunset? Would Vanderbeek sign off on this sort of thing? Would the fans stick around for a lengthy process and an uncertain result?

In today’s NHL, rebuilding jobs are not done overnight. Consider the Pittsburgh Penguins: they drafted in the Top 5 from 2002 through 2006 after disassembling the Lemieux/Jagr team (the one that got bounced in 2001 by the Devils in the ECF, after which Jagr went public in asking out). They got a gem in Crosby in the 2005 draft, but they didn’t even make the playoffs until 2006-2007 — promptly getting bounced in the first round by Ottawa that year to boot. I imagine the Devils would probably have to suck for two or three years before they started accumulating enough talent to build back up to what we have now — one of the NHL’s elite teams. Even then, success is not a guarantee, whether from poor drafting or because that transcendent superstar isn’t available when they need him.

trade Elias because he makes 6 million and they could also deal Zubrus and Salavdor because they are expendable and would give them over 6 million more. Then they could trade for someone like Bobby ryan or Neil from the Stars for another big scorer.

Just having cap space isn’t enough to lure a player the caliber of Bobby Ryan. There’s no guarantee you’ll be able to use offer sheets to lure RFAs, plus you can’t throw piles of money at multiple RFAs given the number of draft picks you have to have for each one. I don’t see where the Devils have the talent to swing a trade, either. Beyond that, why would a young stud like James Neal even want to come to a team that has completely dismantled itself and won’t be relevant for a few years?

You have the two young scorers now — Parise and Kovalchuk. You have a strong supporting cast around them: a goalie in Brodeur, an above-average defense (even if there is no “name” star), and a talented and deep group of forwards to help out.

If this club isn’t to your satisfaction, what more are you looking for? And what precipitated this about-face from this opinion of last week?