Past #2 Seeds the following year

by Devilssection21fan on Aug 25, 2010 10:54 PM EDT

So, other than hit refresh 10,000 times, hoping Kovy is finally officially a Devil, what is one to do in August. How about waste time with somewhat pointless hockey stats

I happened to check back through the playoff history since the 93 season and the realigned playoff structure. Turns out only 2 number one seeds in the Eastern Conference have failed to make the playoffs the following season - the 03/04 Bruins did not make it in teh 05/06 season (of course I did not count the cancelled season) and the 05/06 Hurricanes also did not make it the following year.

Western conference was even more straightforward. Every 2 seed has made the playoffs the following year.

This kind of stat is not based on a huge population so hard to say how predictive it is. But on the surface, Devils would have to fall off much harder than almost any other two seed has to miss the playoffs

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I’m not really too worried about the Devils not making the playoffs this season… still interesting though.

by undersuspicion426 on Aug 26, 2010 4:09 AM EDT reply actions

The second most recent Eastern #2 seed broke 120 points the next season…(and shush about the playoffs).

I can’t see anything short of Parise, Brodeur, AND Zajac/Greene going down for extended periods (knock knock) getting the Devils out of the playoffs.

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by red army line on Aug 26, 2010 6:49 AM EDT reply actions

What would be interesting to see is how many #2 seeds did not repeat as division champs? If I was home and had time, I would certainly do that.

Also, I did not remember that the Hurricanes missed the playoffs after winning the Stanley Cup. We all know who the last team to otherwise do so was…

Yankees in baseball, Giants in football and Devils in hockey. It's that simple. I have no off-season.

by DownGoesAvery on Aug 26, 2010 9:19 AM EDT reply actions

how many #2 seeds did not repeat as division champs?

In the 10 seasons played since the 98-99 season when they switched to the playoff format where the top three seeds were given to the division winners, rather than seeding purely by point totals, it’s happened 12 times (60%).

Follows are the teams that were the 2nd seed in the conference the year previously but did not win their division the following year. Numbers in parentheses indicate what spot within their own division they finished that season.

99-00 Senators (2), 01-02 Senators (3), 02-03 Flyers (2), 03-04 Devils (2), 05-06 Bruins (5), 04-05 Sharks (2), 06-07 Hurricanes (3), 06-07 Stars (3), 07-08 Devils (2), 07-08 Ducks (2), 08-09 Penguins (2), 09-10 Red Wings (2).

Of note, but perhaps not relevant:

It’s happened 8 times in total over this time period, but only two teams have finished as the 2nd seed in the conference and then won their division again the next year post-lockout — the 08-09 Sharks and 09-10 Capitals.

Playing Devils' advocate since 1982.

by elesias on Aug 26, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

And the 04-05 Sharks is an obvious typo. That should read 05-06.

Playing Devils' advocate since 1982.

by elesias on Aug 26, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions

I was originally not following how you got 60%...

But I see that you are including Western Conf and Eastern Conf. So basically in 10 seasons, there have been 20 division winners with the #2 seed. Meaning 12 did not repeat as Division Winner, thus 60%.

Actually, I am not sure why NjDeViLs33 found that of particular interest? There really does not appear to be much correlation between being the Division winner and advancing far in the playoffs. According to what I calculated, in the Eastern Conference only, the two teams that advanced to the Conference Final were NOT a Division winner 55% of the time. There have been 11 seasons, and therefore 22 teams in the Conference final – 12 of those were NOT Division winners. Since the lockout only 3 of 10 Division winners made it as far as the conference final game.

I suppose that could also mean a reversion to the mean – we are due to have Division winners do better

by Devilssection21fan on Aug 26, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Good work, that’s interesting. The Atlantic is an extremely difficult division to play in, although this year, I believe it’s the Pennsylvania teams plus the Devils that will contend.

(Doesn’t anyone else feel that the Isles are going forward and Rangers backward enough to think the Isles will win a division title before the Rangers will?)

Yankees in baseball, Giants in football and Devils in hockey. It's that simple. I have no off-season.

by DownGoesAvery on Aug 27, 2010 7:35 AM EDT up reply actions

The Isles have a great chance of finishing higher than the Rangers this year as far as Im concerned.

"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello

by Skuba7 on Aug 29, 2010 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions

The 05-06 Bruins should have an asterisk next to it, as the lockout was the year previous, so though they dropped off significantly it isn’t an entirely true representation of their decline.

Playing Devils' advocate since 1982.

by elesias on Aug 26, 2010 10:47 AM EDT reply actions