Over/under: Previewing the 2010-11 NJ Devils Season

More than 50 wins: Im going under for many of the reasons you said, plus there will be a new system in place so that may take some adjustment time.

40 goals for Parise: Ill go under, but only because Kovy will get a lot of ice time. I do think its possible though depending on how Zajac, Langs, and Parise adjust to the different style of play that is likely to come.

25 goals from D: Im going under because we picked up we were missing, a big tough D man, but we didnt get a goal scorer. Unless Greene has a monster year, I dont see it happening.

70 points for Zajac: Im going under again because I just dont see him getting the assists and goals that he would need. I wont say he wont be close, but I think he will fall short.

100 goals from Kovy line: Thats too high I think. Elias doesnt score like he used to and Arnott has lost some of his old self aswell. Kovy will put up a large number of points along with a decent amount from Arnott/Elias, but they dont get 100 goals.

12 starts for hedberg: Im going to go over because I personally believe that Lou and MacLean will hold to their idea that Hedberg will play. Im going to guess 15-20 for him.

191 goals allowed: Im going over, but not by much. We boosted the D and we still have Brode so in the new system the numbers will go up, but I dont think be much.

Well, to put in my votes:

50 wins for the Devils — Under. The Devils have made it to 51 once since the lockout, and otherwise have been somewhere in the upper 40s. I don’t buy the argument that the other teams in the conference getting stronger necessarily means the Devils’ win total will dip, but 50 is an awfully hard figure to get to, even with the shootout.

40 goals for Parise — Over, but he won’t lead the team in goals scored. A legitimate second line will deflect some attention from Zach, and I think the Devils will have a better power play this year, which leads to the goal scorers scoring more goals. Kovy will lead the team, and I think he could challenge Gionta’s team record if he’s healthy…. but Parise will return to the numbers that had him in the mid-40s two years ago. Especially if Johnny Mac settles on line combinations early on and doesn’t shuffle them every time I get up to fetch a soda.

25 goals for the D — Under. They weren’t there last year, and Paul Martin is now gone. With the Devils’ offensive talent concentrated very heavily up front, and considering the Devils will go with 4 forwards on the PP (maybe even 5 at times), I don’t see how they make it there.

70 points for Zajac — Under. Normally, I’d advocate the other side based on his ascendant growth curve, but he (and ZZ Pops) won’t be relied upon to be the entire offense this year. The presence of a second line will take pressure off him, but it also means he won’t get quite so many opportunities.

100 goals for Elias-Arnott-Kovy — Under. Way under. I think Kovy is good for 45-50 on his own. I just don’t know that Arnott and Elias put together will match that total…. and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if one or both of them missed 10-20 games (or more!) with an injury — there’s a history there.

20 games played for Mattias Tedenby, Matt Corrente and Tyler Eckford — I don’t see Mattias Tedenby in the NHL this season, because I don’t see where he’d play even if Zubrus is moved…. so that’s an Under in my book. I think one of Corrente or Eckford will make the team out of training camp and play the requisite number, and one will spend most of the season at Albany. So one is an Under, and one is an Over, but I couldn’t tell you which will be which.

12 Starts for Hedberg — Over. I think the Devils are finally serious about cutting back Marty’s workload a little bit…. and he looked considerably more fresh coming out of the Olympics last year after Luongo supplanted him as Canada’s #1. I think Hedberg starts 15-17 games, and Brodeur is trimmed to 65-67. I hope the Devils even make a point of not starting Brodeur in both ends of a back-to-back.

191 goals against — Over. The blue line is better defensively and physically, but the goalies are a year older. While I think Kovalchuk will buy into the system and the team game and won’t be a goal-hanging liability in the defensive zone, he isn’t as polished and practiced in that part of his game. I worry a little bit about the Devils’ second line (Elias and Arnott with Kovy) and how they’ll be in the defensive zone — we know Elias is good, but I have reservations about the others.

12 sellouts for hockey — Over. Opening night is a lock, and I think you’re all-but-guaranteed to have a half dozen from the Rangers and Flyers games. That leaves six in the remaining 34 home dates, which I think is easy enough to reach…. especially given some teams (Toronto, Montreal) travel very well and bring busloads of fans to games, and the Prudential Center is a terrific place to watch a game. Fan clubs would come here as opposed to going somewhere like Nassau Mausoleum.

Average ice time of 10:00 for the 4th line — Not a snowball’s chance in…. (i.e., Under) I think the top two lines get 18-22 minutes apiece on any given night, which leaves at most 24 minutes. If your third line is Rolston-Anonymous-Clarkson, they’ll get rolled on a regular basis as well. Beyond that, the fourth line isn’t going to play a lot in a game that is weighed down by penalties and whistles — they won’t get PP time, and you’ll have one guy (at most) who draws regular PK duties.

Under 50 wins. It’ll take a while for the team to get used to Johnny Mac’s new style and for all the new players to gel. Probably end up over 45 wins.

Over 40 goals for Zach. New style of play, including a better powerplay with Adam Oates running it, should result in more points for Zach.

Under 25 goals for the defense. Greene will be the only player that even has the potential to score more than 10 goals and we don’t know if he will. Too many stay at home defensemen on the team.

Over 70 points for Zajac. Increased production from Parise lends itself to increasing the point total for anyone on the ice with him.

Under 100 goals for Arnott-Elias-Kovalchuk. Kovy should have at least 40, especially good powerplay numbers, but Arnott is getting old and Elias hasn’t played a full season in a while. I think 80-90 is what we can expect.

Under 20 games for all of them unless there is a big injury on the team. Fraser seems more likely to get the last spot on the defense.

Over 12 starts for Hedberg. People believe that Hedberg is a great backup, so I don’t see anyone feeling nervous about letting him get his starts. I say Hedberg gets at least 15 starts.

Over 191 goals allowed. The new style will require some getting used to, and more aggressive play may result in a few mistakes and more allowed. I still think the gap between goals allowed and goals scored will widen since it looks like the offense will be better.

Over 12 sellouts. Kovalchuk + more goals scored = more ticket sales/sellouts.

Under 10 minutes for the 4th line. The only place I could see the 4th line getting extra time would be on the penalty kill to let the top lines rest, but that’s only if they prove they can handle the job.

50 wins- Barely under. They’ve only cracked 50 wins once since the lockout, despite superb regular seasons. I think they’ll get off to a slow start as they integrate a lot of new faces to the lineup.

40G from Parise- Over. I think without Kovalchuk, he just reaches 40. With Kovalchuk, defenses will be less able to focus on Parise. I see 45 goals for Zach and better assist numbers this season as Zajac continues to develop – I think he has a real shot at hitting the 100pt mark.

25G from defense – Under, but I think some of these defensemen might have better offensive years than they’re used to. The opposition’s focus on our wingers will open up opportunities for the defensemen to step in and score.

70P for Zajac- Barely over. I think he notches 50 assists and in the low 20s for goals.

100G from K-A-E- Under, mostly because I don’t think the odds are great that Arnott and Elias manage to go injury-free.

20GP from T-C-E- Over. I think the only way one of Corrente or Eckford don’t make the team is if Urbom beats them out of camp, and they’ll certainly be the first callups in case of injury. I think Tedenby also gets called up for injury. I’d actually expect 40+ combined from these three guys. Injuries are just inevitable.

12 starts for Moose- Under. I’ll see it when I believe it. There’s also always the possibility that Moose gets injured.

191 GA for Defense- Over. I think the team will take more chances offensively, I think the loss of Paul Martin hurts a lot, and I think the defense doesn’t really jell until the second half of the season.

12 Sellouts for PruCenter- Over. This team is sexier with Kovalchuk and Volchenkov, and I think the team will market Parise and Kovalchuk more heavily than we’ve ever seen in the Lamoriello era.

10 minutes Ice Time for 4th line- Under. This team will have a lot of scoring depth on the top 3 lines. I think the drop-off in talent when you go from the 3rd line to the 4th line is huge. You’re going from Rolston-Zubrus/Josefson-Clarkson to PL3-Pelley-Zharkov. If the lines shake out the way a lot of us think they do, I think ZZPops gets 18-19 a night with PP and PK time, KAE also gets 18-19 with lots of PP time, the 3rd line gets 15-16 min with PK time, and the 4th line gets 7-8 min a night.

50 Wins – Under but not by much. We have a good team put together but the Atlantic is stronger; east in general is stronger.

Parise 40 goals – Over, had it not been for the Olympic break and Kovy coming and causing Lemaire to mess around with lines Parise could have easily put up 40+. This season he is entering his prime and I could very well see 45 goals.

25 goals from D – Under, unless Scott Niedermayer returns, 25 is too high. I could see the D putting up 20 though.

K-A-E – 100 goals. Under. I can see Kovy putting up around 45 goals. Elias and Arnott matching that.

Zajac 70 points – Over. Quality 2 way player on the rise. Last year he showed he could put up numbers without haven’t to play every minute with Parise. This year I could see him putting up 75 points.

T-C-E 20 games- Tedenby – under he is too small for the 3rd line and I think a year in Albany subbing in occasionally will do him good. Corrente – over, I think that he will make the team. He has a great point shot and is a great skater. E – Under I don’t think that their is room on the roster for him yet but he will fill in for some games.

Moose 12 starts – Over. Marty is the best goaltender of all time but he is aging and I would rather see him at his top come playoff time and see the Moose play a few games.

191 GA – Over. We don’t have one of the greatest defensive coaches of all time coaching anymore. Although I see more goals scored than last year being greater than the goals let in.

12 sellouts – Over. There has been a lot of interest sparked with the Devils over the off season. Kovy is bound to bring in crowds.

10 min. for 4rth line. Under I see the First and second line eating up a lot of time. And then the third taking up much of the remainder.