Which New Jersey Devils Will Be Protected in the SBN NHL Mock Expansion Draft?

by John Fischer on Aug 30, 2010 6:21 PM EDT in What Do You Think?

Which one of these three Devils will not be protected in the SBN NHL Mock Expansion Draft? According to Tom, Kevin, and myself, consider the jubilant man on the right. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

SBN NHL has been setting up a mock expansion draft in the past few days. Fans have been able to vote on the cities as well as the nicknames of those cities in this Storystream. The people collectively decided upon Winnipeg and Quebec City as the teams, and nicknames could very well be the "Jets" and the "Nordiques." I suppose nostalgia is too hard to resist even for an extensive thought experiment. So much for forward-thinking. Anyway.

Now, the fun begins and where we come in. Every blog on the network will come up with their protection lists for their respective teams. For those who are unaware, when the NHL expanded in the past, the current clubs were allowed to protect only part of their roster. The unprotected players would be available for the expansion teams to select to fill out their inaugural roster. The last expansion draft was done for the 2000-01 season for the Minnesota Wild and the Columbus Blue Jackets. While I'm sure there would be additional factors for an expansion team to consider if there's one today, such as the salary cap floor, SBN NHL has decided to use those regulations for this mock expansion draft.

At a minimum, this is a fun exercise to determine which New Jersey Devils are valuable enough to keep around and who you'd like to see dumped. I can already guess of one name that comes to mind. Find out what the rules are; see who Kevin, Tom, and I protected if we were in charge of New Jersey; and discuss who you would protect. All of this after the jump.

8/31 Update: Matthew has a protection list, so I have added it to this post. Remember to make your comments because I'll make my consensus list tomorrow night!

The Rules for Protection

Here are the ground rules for the SBN Hockey 2010 Mock Expansion Draft:

Teams can protect either "1 goalie, 5 defensemen and 9 forwards" OR "2 goalies, 3 defensemen and 7 forwards."

If you go the two goalie route, at least one goalie left unprotected must have played in at least 10 games last season OR 25 games in the last two seasons combined. One game = at least 31 minutes

Each team must leave unprotected at least one defenseman who appeared in 40 games last season OR 70 games in the last two seasons combined.

Each team must leave unprotected at least two forwards who appeared in 40 games last season OR 70 games in the last two seasons combined.

Players who have played in 49 or fewer games are automatically exempt and do not need to be protected.

Given that the Devils only have two goalies who meet the minimum game requirements, the protection list is going to have to be the "1 goalie, 5 defensemen, and 9 forwards" option.

Here's an additional New Jersey-specific ground rule: The protection list must be made based on the current roster. As of right now, Ilya Kovalchuk is not a Devil. Yes, there's been a contract submitted. But until it's accepted and officially registered, he's not a Devil. So he can't be protected, the Devils only have 11 total forwards, and therefore is not in the following three lists.

The final protection list will be submitted for the mock expansion draft on Thursday, so if Kovalchuk becomes a Devil before Thursday, then he'll need to be protected. That's pretty easy and I cover that in the "Protecting Kovalchuk" section.

The Protection Lists of Your ILWT Writers

Here's my protection list with a quick take:

Protected Goalie (1): Martin Brodeur

Protected Defensemen (5): Anton Volchenkov, Henrik Tallinder, Colin White, Andy Greene, Bryce Salvador

Protected Forwards (9): Zach Parise, Travis Zajac, Patrik Elias, Jamie Langenbrunner, Jason Arnott, David Clarkson, Vladimir Zharkov, Dainius Zubrus, Pierre-Luc-Letourneau-Leblond

My Quick Take: I've left Johan Hedberg unprotected since the Devils could conceivably get a decent backup for cheap. Mark Fraser, Anssi Salmela, and Rod Pelley were left unprotected because the Devils have players in the system who could step into the third-pairing or the fourth line and not necessarily get worse. Though, there is a "big" name on the unprotected list is Brian Rolston. A NTC and his $5 million/year cap hit along with his performance makes him undesirable in a trade; but he can be useful for an expansion team if only to get closer to that important salary cap lower limit. Should Rolston be picked up, then there's no need to move Dainius Zubrus or Bryce Salvador.

Tom Stivali drew up his protection list a little bit differently from mine:

Protected Goalie (1): Martin Brodeur

Protected Defensemen (5): Anton Volchenkov, Anssi Salmela, Henrik Tallinder, Mark Fraser, Andy Greene

Protected Forwards (9): David Clarkson, Travis Zajac, Zach Parise, Jason Arnott, Dainius Zubrus, Vladimir Zharkov, Patrik Elias, Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond, Jamie Langenbrunner

Tom's Quick Take: If expansion was to come I would use it as an opportunity to help secure UFA/RFAs next year (Parise, possibly Greene) by making salary available with the exposure of White/Salvador/Rolston.

Kevin Sellathamby had similar thoughts, but had a different group for the defensemen:

Protected Goalie (1): Martin Brodeur

Protected Defensemen (5): Colin White, Andy Greene, Henrik Tallinder, Anton Volchenkov, Anssi Salmela

Protected Forwards (9): Zach Parise, Travis Zajac, Jamie Langenbrunner, Patrik Elias, Jason Arnott, David Clarkson, Dainius Zubrus, Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond and Vladimir Zharkov

Kevin's Quick Take: Salvador and Rolston can be claimed. Helps our team out with the cap situation if they're claimed. Fraser and Pelley getting claimed will not hurt the team as well, they can be replaced by some of the kids in Albany.

UPDATE: Matt Ventolo has a list as well, so here it is:

Protected Goalie (1): Martin Brodeur

Protected Defensemen (5): Anton Volchenkov, Henrik Tallinder, Bryce Salvador, Andy Greene, Mark Fraser

Protected Forwards (9): Jason Arnott, David Clarkson, Patrik Elias, Jamie Langenbrunner, Zach Parise, Travis Zajac, Vladimir Zharkov, Dainius Zubrus, Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond

Matt's Quick Take: It fits nice that Rolston and Pelley both played 40+. I chose Salvador over White because of the 100k difference in salary. It helps the expansion teams make the minimum and gives the Devils a wee bit more cap space.

Notice all how all three of us have identical lists for goaltender and forward. There's no way Brodeur or Parise or someone of that caliber would be exposed. Only on defense do we waver, and even there, it's over two spots. Greene, Volchenkov, and Tallinder are consensus locks for protection. I don't know about you, but I take that to mean that most of the current roster is worth keeping.

Also, notice how all three of us used this opportunity to leave Brian Rolston exposed. Again, his salary may be way too much for what he does on the ice, but an expansion team may need that massive cap hit to boost their total roster value. In other words, the least costly way to dump the Rolston contract (or any other Devil with a NTC) could very well be through an expansion draft. Unfortunately for all Devils fans that would love to see Rolston's cap hit go away, there's no way the NHL is going to expand with a month before a season and fast-track the team(s) for 2010-11. There's a better chance that I get a unicorn before that happens.

Still, it's a good idea for this mock expansion draft.

Protecting Kovalchuk (if necessary)

If or when Ilya Kovalchuk's contract comes through, then another forward would have to be left unprotected. This is simple, though. Given that Leblond played in only 27 games last year, he can be moved off the protected list since he's exempt. Kovalchuk can take his spot on the protection list.

Some of you may be asking: Why not use that spot for Rod Pelley? Remember, the Devils need to leave at least two forwards who played 40 games or more last season or 70 in the last two. Pelley fits the bill but Leblond does not. Ergo, Pelley's exposed and Leblond is warming up on the list for hopefully the incoming signing.

Who Would You Protect?

Now it's your turn. What do you think of our lists? What feedback do you have? If you want, please feel free to make your own. Please read the rules, and make your protection lists in the comments. By Wednesday night, I will review the comments and try to come up with some consensus protection list for the New Jersey Devils. That will be submitted to the people running this at SBN NHL on Thursday.

The actual mock expansion draft is planned for this coming Saturday. I don't believe the GMs are announced yet, but when they are, I would politely suggest that they take Brian Rolston. Thanks for reading.

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Comments

My list would be the same as Kevin’s. I think the forwards and goalie are no brainers. Volchenkov, Tallinder, and Greene are no brainers as well. I would leave Salvador off just for the opportunity to dump cap. And I would keep Salmela over Fraser because of our lack of offensive defensemen.

by C.J. Richey on Aug 30, 2010 6:46 PM EDT reply actions

My list would be nearly identical to Tom’s list above. The major difference between my list and his is that I’d protect Rod Pelley over Dainius Zubrus. PL3 remains on the list if Ilya Kovalchuk’s contract is rejected, otherwise I’ll let the rules protect him on their own and turn the slot over to Kovy.

Obviously, I’m hoping to get rid of one or two big cap hits through the expansion draft, as to simplify Lou’s job to get the team back under the upper limit following the approval of a Kovalchuk contract. Beyond that, I think most of the picks for this list are straightforward. Anssi Salmela doesn’t technically have to be protected (only 38 games last season and 64 the previous two years combined), but I’d rather use the spot on him and leave both White and Salvador out there to be taken off our hands. Not a nice thing to do to Colin White, IMO, but this is a business move and not a sentimental one.

I’m leaving Zubrus unprotected because I think there’s a good chance he would be taken by an expansion team. Admittedly, he has some value on the trade market and the Devils might be able to reap an asset in return for him…. but I’d just as soon simplify the task of getting under the upper limit of the salary cap and forego the draft pick or prospect in return for just getting it done.

Why Pelley and not Zubrus? I like what Pelley brings to the fourth line. Also, replacing Pelley on the roster doesn’t provide much of a bump for the team. There is neither a significant savings in salary cap space, nor a significant upgrade in performance — Pelley is playing 4th line minutes next season, I believe in the 6-10 range nightly, and there isn’t anyone available to fill that role who will give you substantially greater returns.

Why Fraser and not White or Salvador? Once again, I think we’re looking at the third pairing here. While the third pairing is likely to get significant ice time (15-18 minutes a night most likely), I don’t know that there’s enough of a drop-off from White or Salvador to Fraser. I think the difference in salary is greater than the difference in skill and performance here…. and the finances carry the day in my book.

The other decision I weighed in constructing my lists was whether or not to protect Jason Arnott. Were the Devils not so thin down the middle, or if I had reason to believe Jacob Josefsen were ready to step into that spot this year, I’d expose him and hope to get cap relief that way, even though the franchise just gave up a pick and prospect for him. Arnott’s contract is friendly enough that an expansion team could take him, either to be their top pivot or to flip to another club for other pieces.

Finally, protecting Pelley and Fraser gives the Devils a chance to trade them to said expansion team and extract something else, be it a useful player or cap relief by piggybacking someone else with them.

So, to recap:

Goalie (1): Martin Brodeur
Defensemen (5): Anton Volchenkov, Anssi Salmela, Henrik Tallinder, Mark Fraser, Andy Greene
Forwards (9): David Clarkson, Travis Zajac, Zach Parise, Jason Arnott, Rod Pelley, Vladimir Zharkov, Patrik Elias, Jamie Langenbrunner, Ilya Kovalchuk / PL3

Necessary exposed players:

Goalie (1): Johan Hedberg
Defensemen (2): Colin White, Bryce Salvador
Forwards (2): Dainius Zubrus, Brian Rolston

by acasser on Aug 30, 2010 7:05 PM EDT reply actions

There’s been a lot of concern about what it would cost us to trade our big salaries, and not much hope that we could net something in return, so I agree with acasser’s list. Under different circumstances I would protect White, Salvador, and Zubrus, but anticipating that Kovalchuk will be a Devil one way or another, I would leave them unprotected to try to dump their salaries.

One might bring up the question of, what happens if all three of those guys get claimed and Kovalchuk ends up going to Russia? Well, that would suck and would mean we only have one established defenseman returning from last year (Greene), but the Devils would suddenly have about $13M in cap space to fill those holes. The top-9 forwards could be filled via trade or by Josefson and Tedenby. It would provide an opportunity to re-make our defense with a little more offensive pop. It would put the Devils in the market to pick up defensemen from cap-strapped defense-heavy teams like, say, Vancouver, Calgary, or Toronto.

Is it necessary to expose both White and Salvador? Maybe not, but I’d like to maximize my odds of dumping one of them and I think the odds that both of them are picked up is slim.

by dr(d)evil on Aug 30, 2010 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions

One might bring up the question of, what happens if all three of those guys get claimed and Kovalchuk ends up going to Russia?

I don’t know if that’s even a realistic scenario, but I’m not sure what the rules for the expansion draft itself are. Can teams lose a slew of players, or will each of the “expansion” teams only get to pick one player per roster? If I had to guess — mind you, this is completely a guess with nothing to support it whatsoever — I’d say the Devils are on the hook for two players to lose.

The next thing to keep in mind is that from my “exposed” list, I assume that Johan Hedberg has the highest value to an expansion team. He’s cost-effective, he can handle the duties for an awful team, and his contract is up after the season. Sure, that would mean the Devils would have to find another goalie in this hypothetical world, but there are some out there (e.g., you could give Antti Niemi a one-year deal at $1.5 million with a mutual option of some sort for 2011-2012).

But to answer the question…. if you lost Zubrus and Salvador and White, and then Ilya Kovalchuk signed in Russia…. you’ve gone from a situation where you have to fire sale some contracts to get under the cap to a situation where you have a big pile of cash (north of $13 million) to fill out your roster and teams that have to dump salary. Maybe you swing a deal for Kevin Bieksa or Christian Ehrhoff to fortify the blue line…. maybe you bring in Patrice Bergeron or David Krejci to play the wing on the second line if you don’t wish to give the job to Clarkson. Needless to say, you’re in a position to absorb someone else’s cap issues, and probably even extract an extra concession for the privledge.

by acasser on Aug 30, 2010 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions

If I’m not mistaken, no team can lose more than 2 players. From a summary of the 2000 expansion draft:

26 of the 28 teams existing in the league at the time of the draft were each allowed to protect either one goaltender, five defensemen, and nine forwards or two goaltenders, three defensemen, and seven forwards. The Nashville Predators and Atlanta Thrashers had their entire rosters protected, as they were the two newest franchises in the league.

52 players were chosen in the draft, two from each participating franchise. Only one goaltender or one defensemen could be selected from each franchise. Both the Blue Jackets and the Wild were to use their first 24 selections on three goaltenders, eight defensemen, and thirteen forwards. The final two picks for each team could be any position.

I also found this:

No club may lose more than one goaltender or one defenseman. A club that loses a goaltender may not lose a defenseman.

Go Devils
Go Jets
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by FrankG929 on Aug 30, 2010 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I did a once-over the entire thread on the main site, and I didn’t see anything specific. Just something along the lines of “the GMs we choose for Quebec and Winnipeg will sit around a rickety card table underneath a solitary light bulb in their Mommy’s basement and pick teams in between rolling the dice in their weekend game of Dungeons & Dragons”. (Way over the top, but that’s the kind of mood I’m in)

In short, I don’t know if there are restrictions on who can and cannot be picked and in what numbers. In any event, you’ll notice everyone save Hedberg on my “exposed” list carries a big cap hit we’ve discussed about throwing overboard to accomodate Kovy.

by acasser on Aug 30, 2010 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Doesn’t matter, for the purposes of this mock-expansion draft, if Kovalchuk were protected: the Devils are the only team that would take him now, anyway.

Denis Gauthier sucks at hockey... and life.

by Kevin Y on Aug 30, 2010 8:28 PM EDT reply actions

Yea I’m sure an expansion team would pass on Kovalchuk

by C.J. Richey on Aug 30, 2010 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I disagree

I think Kovy might be the first guy taken, especially if his cap hit is “only” $6.67 million per season. True, the 15-year contract will be worrisome, but you’re looking at a bonafide Top 5 NHL forward who has a track record of performing as the only significant threat on a weak team. In addition, he might help at the box office, which would be important beyond the first season of an expansion team when the novelty wears off and you have to have a product on the ice to draw consistently.

If nothing else, he could be taken and flipped for multiple pieces from another team, which seems to me to be a good reason to take any number of players in an expansion draft.

Or was that comment meant to be sarcasm, CJ?

by acasser on Aug 30, 2010 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions

That was indeed sarcasm

by C.J. Richey on Aug 30, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Might want to take the Quisp colored glasses off before posting nonsense.

Why would an expansion team not take a proven scorer at a reasonable cap hit in the prime of his career?

Playing Devils' advocate since 1982.

by elesias on Aug 31, 2010 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Quisp-colored, now that’s funny. I assume they are purple.
Either way, Kovalchuk would indeed be snapped up rather quickly if his Cap hit fell anywhere near the reported $6.67M.

"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello

by Skuba7 on Aug 31, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions

My comment was obviously sarcasm…

Sure, Kovalchuk would be the first guy to take, as far as product versus cost/cap hit…

I’m just referring to the fact that only the Devils and Kings were serious (NHL) destinations, anyway. Of course, cap room wouldn’t be an issue in the mock expansion draft.

Denis Gauthier sucks at hockey... and life.

by Kevin Y on Aug 31, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Obviously.

Why would referring to that “fact” be of any relevance to the discussion of a mock expansion draft? Oh, you answered that question already.

Playing Devils' advocate since 1982.

by elesias on Aug 31, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions

My exposed list

G: Obviously Hedberg
D: Salvador and Salmela
F: Rolston and Zharkov.

Rationale:
Hedberg – Marty. No-brainer, No further explanation necessary.
Salvador – Obviously take an opportunity to shed the salary.
Salmela – If the expansion team was looking for a defenseman, then his injury status could cause them to hesitate and force their hand into taking Sal.
Rolston – See Salvador, above
Zharkov – Any one of the up and coming prospects would easily get us 0 goals and 10 assists to replace his production. Too bad Atlanta didn’t want him instead of Bergfors.

Go Devils
Go Jets
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by FrankG929 on Aug 30, 2010 9:35 PM EDT reply actions

I think Atlanta wasn’t taking the deal without Bergie. Sadly…

Mathew Barnaby to Lyle Odelein: "Cornelius, as we like to call him, gets under your skin. Planet of the Apes. Look at him. Seriously. He looks like Cornelious."

Odelein to Barnaby: "He should take a look at his wife. She's God-awful to look at."

by RolliePollieKovy on Aug 31, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for the feedback

Based on the comments and the writer’s lists, here’s the consensus I came to:

Unprotected Goaltender: Johan Hedberg (unanimous, unsurprising)

Unprotected Defensemen: Bryce Salvador, Colin White (this was the most contentious, Salvador got tipped for exposure 6 times, White 4, Fraser and Salmela 3)

Unprotected Forwards: Brian Rolston, Rod Pelley (there were a few votes for Zubrus in the comments, but Pelley and Rolston won out)

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
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by John Fischer on Sep 1, 2010 10:40 PM EDT reply actions