Who will make the final roster? Speculation on who may win the final spots on the New Jersey Devils
by Tom Stivali on Sep 30, 2010 1:27 PM EDT
in Devils Issues, Views & Analysis
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The Devils trimmed down their roster again yesterday sending Jeff Frazee to Albany and Eric Gelinas to his junior team, Chicoutimi (QMJHL).. Additionally, Marcus Nilson returned to Sweden to resume a career in the Swedish Elite League. Taking those players off the roster leaves the Devils with the following players still in camp, per NewJerseyDevils.com:
Patrik Elias - Jason Arnott - Jamie Langenbrunner
Dainius Zubrus - Jacob Josefson - David Clarkson
Brian Rolston - Adam Mair - Mattias Tedenby
PL Letourneau-Leblond - Rod Pelley - Nick Palmieri
Alexander Urbom - Henrik Tallinder
Colin White - Matt Taormina
Andy Greene - Anton Volchenkov
Mark Fraser - Matt Corrente
Martin Brodeur, Johan Hedberg, Mike McKenna
Right now that leaves the team with 29 players in training camp. Assuming a full roster of 23 and also that no other players from Albany would quickly re-join the roster (as Lou Lamoriello alluded to yesterday) there are 5 spots available for 7 players that can be considered up for grabs. I am also not counting Anssi Salmela who will begin the season on IR. Since it is also likely that Nick Palmieri, Mike McKenna and Rob Davison will soon be sent to Albany, I am not counting them either. The 7 players fighting for roster spots are:
Alexander Urbom, Matt Taormina, Mark Fraser, Matthew Corrente, Jacob Josefson, Mattias Tedenby, Adam Mair
Who will make it? After the jump I will place odds on each player's chances.
Now considering the cap issues the team currently has I will assume that the following players wont be on the active roster to start the year: Bryce Salvador and 'Ubiquitous Lame Duck Forward' (this can be Brian Rolston, Dainius Zubrus, Jamie Langenbrunner or David Clarkson. Basically anyone you have heard about in trade/demotion rumors, take your pick)
That said, I if I was setting odds with the 7 players in contention for roster spots, I would lay out the odds like this:
Jacob Josefson: 2-1
The third line center possibilities were discussed by John back in July here. Taking into account the demoted players, lack of cap space for free agents and the fact that Zubrus/Rolston are question marks to start the year, it's Josefson's job to lose. Josefson, since the beginning of camp has centered Zubrus/Clarkson and in the two pre-season games he has played in he has not looked out of place on the ice. He is only 9/21so far in faceoffs (7/13 in one game and 2/8 in the other) but the Devils are trusting him with defensive zone faceoffs (8/21 so far) more so than you think they would. Of course I could be reading too much into preseason boxscores but unless he plays terribly or gets injured I think it is safe to say he makes the roster.
Adam Mair: 4-1
Considering the reasoning that Nilson went home (Lou Lamoriello was quoted as saying "I think that we have to go with the younger players if there’s any parallel whatsoever")I think it is safe to assume Mair will make the team. While I haven't been that excited by his attendance in camp (even less after John's write-up about him) he has provided some good energy as a 4th line player. I think he has also shown that he will jump in and protect a teammate. If he can provide the same energy he has in the pre-season I wouldn't be averse to Mair being on the team. Hey, he at least 'met expectations' to Sabres fans last year. That's something right?
Mark Fraser: 9-2
Fraser was solid last year in a 'protected' role where he didn't face tough competition and wasn't asked to start in the defensive zone that often per his zone start data from BehindTheNet.ca. Fraser's salary of $500K might earn him a roster spot because of the Devils cap troubles. As a 3rd pairing defenseman the Devils could do a lot worse than Fraser and unless the coaching staff thinks that he is totally being outplayed. I would expect him to make the team.
Matt Taormina: 6-1
Taormina, the undrafted defensemen from Providence has survived two rounds of cuts. I had thought tthe roster spot for this type of player (puck mover, power play specialist) would be Tyler Eckford's to lose but obviously John MacLean knows best (he coached both last year at Albany) and the chances he has given Taormina so far lead me to believe he will make the team. Besides a turnover in the Devils zone because of an ill-timed pass by Colin White, Taormina has looked solid and more comfortable as the preseason has progressed. The fact that he could provide the team with a second power play quarterback to backup Andy Greene and his effectiveness moving the puck may secure him a roster spot. That being said, I might be a little biased here as I have been rooting for him to make the team since I wrote a profile of him in July (which may have been ignored as some other big news happened the day it was published).
Alexander Urbom: 8-1
Urbom, who will either be in Albany or New Jersey this year (per Lou Lamoriello) also have earned himself a roster spot with solid play for a 19 year old. Called the team's best prospect by Lou Lamoriello he has played a majority of minutes in the pre-season with fellow countryman Henrik Tallinder. Since I can't see the Devils using that pairing once the real games start I am skeptical about his roster chances as I am not sure how he would fare on a 3rd pairing with a player like Mark Fraser. Another area of concern would be his salary of $870K as opposed to the savings of $300K-$350K with giving Fraser or Eckford a roster spot. If he does make the roster his quick movement through the system could make it two (If Josefson does make it) 19-year olds that would be on the Devils opening day roster.
Matthew Corrente: 10-1
The offensive skills of Taormina, the potential of Urbom and Fraser's contract/experience may make Corrente the odd-man-out to start the year. While I can envision a scenario where he acts as a 7th defenseman and 4th line forward, he will likely begin the year in Albany waiting for an injury, trade or for one of the younger defensemen who do make the team to struggle. I do think he will get an extensive look this year, just not at the beginning of the season.
Mattias Tedenby: 25-1
I would be very surprised to see Tedenby make the roster. Unless the team loses a few wingers due to salary cap trades I don't see much value in providing Tedenby 4th line minutes in the NHL. It would make more sense to have him develop in the AHL for a season and compete for a spot next year.
So what do you think? Am I too high on Taormina, too dismissive of Tedenby? Will Corrente or Urbom make it? Sound off below!
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Ummm the “odds” don’t quite make sense (2:1 odds for Josefson and 25:1 odds for Tedenby suggest that Josefson has a 33% chance of making the team and Tedenby has a 1/26 ~= 4% chance) but I get your gist.
I agree that Josefson is almost sure to make the team, and Tedenby is a long, long shot that depends a lot on multiple forwards being moved to make cap space and any injuries that occur in the next week. I think the idea behind keeping Tedenby in NJ for now and letting him play in preseason is to get his feet wet at this level so that he’s more ready when injuries strike the team and for next year, when he should be able to solidify a top-9, perhaps a top-6, spot. I think Mair has played his way onto the team and Pelley and PL3 haven’t played poorly. And even though they’ve been sent to the AHL club, I believe either Zharkov or Vasyunov will make it, but not likely both.
I disagree with your defense picks. My order would be Urbom, Taormina, Fraser, and Corrente. I would be pretty surprised if Salvador is kept (not listed on your roster for some reason), as the kids have played well enough and deliver enough offensive upside to make Sal expendable. I think Fraser is more likely to be kept than Corrente, simply because we can afford to sit Fraser in the press box and because he’s on a one-way contract. But frankly, maybe it’s because he got the one-way he negotiated for, I think Fraser has played poorly thus far and needed to be significantly more solid in the defensive zone than the other rookies in order to justify his roster spot, but as far as I’ve seen, he’s been about the same level of reliability as the others.
When Salmela comes back, things will get very interesting – we’ll see if Urbom and Taormina play well enough to fend him off.
I was going to preface the odds with ‘pari-mutuel’ explanation but figured not many people were Meadowlands Harness junkies like me growing up.
So you would agree with me on the defensemen but just not the order? I gave preference to Fraser for experience. I think all three make it.
That said, if Josefson, Urbom and Taormina are both on the opening day roster and the Devils don’t get out of the gate well many will be saying “We should have signed X free agent!!!”
Up front, I would expect to see something like the following as the top 4 lines:
Line 1: Parise-Zajac-Kovalchuk
Line 2: Elias-Arnott-Langenbrunner
Line 3: Rolston-Josefsen-Clarkson
Line 4: Pelley-Mair-Leblond
On the blueline, I think it would be:
Pair 1: Greene-Volchenkov
Pair 2: Urbom-Tallinder
Pair 3: White-Taormina
The goalies are obviously Brodeur and Hedberg.
Extras: Davis, Fraser, Sestito (see explanation below)
For the 13th forward position, it makes no sense for players like Tedenby, Zharkov, or Vasuynov to be placed into the role of an extra instead of getting regular playing time at Albany. I would expect someone like Patrick Davis or Tim Sestito to get called back up to fill this role. (As an aside — Dean McAmmond could also be an option here if he doesn’t get a contract with the Islanders)
For the 7th defenseman, I expect that Mark Fraser would be the pick here. Since there doesn’t seem to be any kind of time frame given for Salmela’s return, I don’t think the team can count on his eventual availability when putting the roster together, and that Salmela is likely ticketed for Albany whenever he does return.
The big question is what to do with roster spot #23. Does the team add whoever loses out on the 13th forward spot, or do they keep someone like Corrente who can play D or wing? Once again, I think it would be a mistake to waste a young player in this spot, so the advisable move would be to send Corrente to Albany and go with another forward.
Yes, they do have the space for it.
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Zach Parise ($3.125m) / Travis Zajac ($3.887m) / Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.666m)
Patrik Elias ($6.000m) / Jason Arnott ($4.500m) / Jamie Langenbrunner ($2.800m)
Brian Rolston ($5.062m) / Jacob Josefson ($0.900m) / David Clarkson ($2.666m)
Rod Pelley ($0.550m) / Tim Sestito ($0.500m) / P-L Letourneau-Leblond ($0.525m)
Patrick Davis ($0.500m)
DEFENSEMEN
Anton Volchenkov ($4.250m) / Andy Greene ($0.737m)
Alexander Urbom ($0.870m) / Henrik Tallinder ($3.375m)
Matthew Taormina ($0.510m) / Colin White ($3.000m)
Mark Fraser ($0.500m)
GOALTENDERS
Martin Brodeur ($5.200m) /Johan Hedberg ($1.500m)
BUYOUTS: Jay Pandolfo ($0.833m) / Andrew Peters ($0.166m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,625,834; BONUSES: $810,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $1,584,166
Add Mair for $500k to $750k, and there’s the 23-man roster.
by HockeyWeasel on Sep 30, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
there’s no point in wasting space like that. the devils have anssi salmela on their cap, taking up room they could be banking for the trade deadline. i am sure that you will tell me that that isn’t the case, but it is. the more space you have on your cap every day that the cap is calculated, the more room you generate towards the trade deadline. with your 23rd man on there, you’re down to around $400,000 in total cap room, which only turns into around 1.6 million at the deadline.
While Salmela is on LTIR, the team has an exception against the cap for the amount of his salary. And if he goes to Albany after he comes back, he does not count against the cap.
by HockeyWeasel on Sep 30, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
they do not. players on LTIR count against the cap. it is just that teams are allowed to exceed the cap by the amount of that player’s salary, should they choose to do so.
it’s not. it’s very different. my understanding is that you don’t bank cap space with players on LTIR. banking cap space is very important.
While Salmela is on LTIR, the team has an exception against the cap for the amount of his salary.
players on LTIR count against the cap. it is just that teams are allowed to exceed the cap by the amount of that player’s salary, should they choose to do so.
Different words, same meaning.
Playing Devils' advocate since 1982.
except that they are slightly different, otherwise hockeyweasel would have said ’you’re absolutely right’. a player on LTIR isn’t removed from the salary cap. for every day where a team is below the cap, it generates an additional amount of cap space. when it has players on LTIR that instead have that team exceeding the salary cap, it doesn’t generate additional space.
this is why the flyers were unable to make any deadline deals last season besides tollefson for leino – they just didn’t have any salary cap room because of the players they had on IR; they hadn’t banked any all year.
with the devils looking at many scenarios where they are within $1 million of the salary cap, having a 23rd man on the roster is a superfluity that could cost them a big-ticket deadline acquisition.
If you’re making the point that carrying 23 players isn’t the brightest of ideas because it may prevent them from being more active at the trade deadline, I’m not going to argue that with you. In fact, I may agree with you on that point
However, the point that I will argue with you is that they don’t have the space to carry a 23-man roster. They can carry a 23-man roster, and Salmela on LTIR without exceeding the original $59.4 million cap, and can get further under the cap by sending someone to Albany when Salmela is cleared to play again.
Not carrying 23 players because they shouldn’t is a different scenario from not carrying 23 players because they can’t.
by HockeyWeasel on Sep 30, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
What Triumph is saying about the LTIR not generating cap space during the season sounds familiar to me, but I think it’s a moot point – we’re not likely to be making any big deadline deals anyway.
Let’s suppose Mair replaces Davis in the above scenario posted by HockeyWeasel. Any time one of those 22 players gets injured, we’ll have to call up someone from the minors to replace him, stripping us of some daily cap savings that we can use at the trade deadline. I found this data on man-games lost to injury which basically tells us that the average number of man-games lost to injury by NHL teams in a season is 217. For simplicity’s sake let’s say that we expect the Devils to lose 206 man-games to injury – exactly 2.5 players on “injured” status x 82 games in a season = 206 man-games.
Of those 2.5 players who are “injured” every day let’s suppose that 0.5 can be accounted for by “day-to-day” type injuries not requiring a call-up, and the remaining 2.0 are due to injuries worthy of the LTIR. Let’s also suppose that each injured player is replaced by a player costing $600K over a full season. That means that, accounting for expected injuries, we’ll have $1.2 M less cap space at the end of the season than we would have had otherwise. We’d be “banking” every day what amounts to about $400K of cap space, and if the trade deadline is at the 3/4 mark of the regular season, we could afford to take on a player with a $1.6M salary at the trade deadline.
With that kind of dough we could afford a third-pair defenseman or perhaps a borderline 3rd line/4th line player, but we will not be able to afford any big-ticket players at the deadline. It will be a very quiet trade deadline this year with a lot of teams (about 12) within $1.5 M of the cap.
if IF’s and But’s were candy and nuts we’d all have a merry christmas. – Slammin’ Salmon
Devil for Life
by st.pattysdaymassacre26 on Sep 30, 2010 3:03 PM EDT reply actions
i give up trying to predict this. so much has to do with who is kept and who leaves due to the salary cap.
In one week we will be done talking about this. So let’s just wait and let Lou do his job.
by Goblechuk on Sep 30, 2010 6:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What I’ve seen so far this pre-season of Mark Fraser does not give me much confidence. He was protected last season, and he definitely looked overmatched at times in the Philly game the other night. In addition, his set of skills doesn’t look all that different from a couple of other guys on the roster, namely White and Salvador and Volchenkov. Sure, Fraser isn’t as polished or experienced, but I don’t see him bringing something to the table that isn’t present on the NJ roster in abundance.
Considering the lack of offense from the blue line corps in general, and the need to find a second (and maybe third) d-man who can play point on the PP, I think that helps both Urbom and Taormina in the final equation, especially with Salmela headed to LTIR.
I wouldn’t object to Fraser being kept around as a 7th defenseman and playing on nights where someone needs a breather or a little more physicality is needed…. but I’m not particularly keen on seeing him in the lineup on a regular basis. Especially if the Devils might be able to use him as an enticement to move another contract.
I'm not sure the concept of "banking" cap space is accurate
It’s not that cap space gets banked, but rather the salary of any acquisition/call-up is pro-rated based on daily cap hits. You can’t “save” an aggregate $5M in cap space before the deadline and then obtain $15M worth of players. The sum of the current player’s pro-rated salaries must still be below the pro-rated salary cap. The only day the $59.4M is truly the cap is the first day. After that, the pro-rated salary cap goes down approximately $330K per day. I suppose it may turn out the same, but cap space is not “banked.”
The available space at the trade deadline is based on the current roster at that point. If you were $3M under the cap most of the season, but had a call-up just before the trade deadline that a full-year salary difference of $500K exists (e.g a $500K player gets hurt and who is brought in is a $1M player), the fact that you were $3M under the cap all season is moot. Your full-season pro-rated salary at that time is only $2.5M under the cap. Since about a third of the season remains after the deadline, you can trade for someone whose full-year salary is around $7.5M, not $9M which would seem to be the case based on the “banking” theory.
At least, this is the way I understand my reading of the CBA.
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