Are the Devils Doing Any Better in the Second Period under Jacques Lemaire?
by John Fischer on Jan 18, 2011 7:35 PM EST
in Devils Issues, Views & Analysis
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PrintFor the first three months of the New Jersey Devils 2010-11 season, the second period has been horrid seemingly over and over again. Over a month ago, I looked at the game summaries of the first 27 games of the season to see how the second periods have went for New Jersey in terms of shots and goals. It confirmed that, yes, the second period was a bad one for New Jersey so far in the season. If you felt any dread at the start of the second in a Devils game, you had good reason to be concerned.
Since that post, John MacLean was head coach for 6 more games whereupon the team went 1-5, the lone win coming in a 3-0 shutout of Phoenix. Only once did the Devils go into the second period not losing - they were up 1-0 against Phoenix). Only once did the team hold the opposition to no goals in the second period - the game against Phoenix. The Devils did outshoot the opposition in the second period except for the 3-1 loss to Nashville and that same game against Phoenix; but as noted earlier, the Devils were losing going into that period. In any case, second periods were still pretty awful under MacLean until his eventual firing in late December.
On December 23, 2010, Jacques Lemaire was named the interim head coach of the New Jersey Devils. Shortly after his first game behind the bench for this season, Lemaire has stated his goal is to get the Devils to be a competitive hockey team. He's been behind the bench for 12 games this season now - the exact amount of games played in October or November. While not as long as MacLean was coach, it's enough time to see whether there are signs of improvement within this team. Since the second period was such a problem, let's see whether the Devils have done better in that period under Lemaire. Are they losing games in the second period? Are they getting pounded as they were under MacLean?
I break it down after the jump, but let me give you a hint: there's reason to worry less about the Devils playing in the second period under Lemaire.
Just as was done in the first post about MacLean, here's a chart of the 12 second periods the Devils have played under Lemaire. If you're interested, here's the chart for all 33 second periods under MacLean's time as head coach.
Quick legend: GF is goals for; GA is goals against; SF is shots for; SA is shots against; and GWGA is game winning goal allowed.
Here are some quick facts about these 12 second periods:
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The Devils have only allowed the game winning goal in 2 of these games, or 16.7%. The Devils actually scored their eventual game winning goal in the second period in their 5-2 win over the Islanders.
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The Devils were out-shot in the second period 3 times, or 25%. Incidentally, the Devils were leading in the game going into the second period with a lead for 2 of those 3 games.
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Speaking of leads, the Devils led going into the second period 4 times, or 33.3%. 3 out of 4 of those games led to Devils wins.
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The Devils held their opposition to no goals in the second period in 4 games, or 33.3%. The team went 2-2 in those games.
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The Devils put up 10 or more shots on net in the second period in 11 of these games, or 91.7%. The opposition has done so in only 4 games.
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The Devils did win one game going into the second period from behind; though the Devils won that game in the third period.
You may notice the different colored rows. That's to visually differentiate months in the second. While they have only played 8 out of 12 games this month, it's looking a lot better than the past 3 months of this season.
They are actually even in goals while out-shooting their opposition. Out-shooting them enough to bring the season shot differential in New Jersey's favor. The Devils may be doomed to a negative goal differential for the season for the second period; but January is already a far sight better than October (all MacLean) or December (MacLean for 9 games, Lemaire for 4).
Since the question asks whether the Devils are doing any better under Lemaire, let's compare second periods under the two coaches. To account for the difference in games, I've included a per-game rate for each of the four stats used so far.
It's clear to me that there's definitely reason to believe the Devils are doing better in the second period under Lemaire. While the Devils are being out-scored in second periods under Lemaire, it's not by much. Moreover, the goals for rate has improved while the goals against rate is dramatically lower. The other big difference is in shots. While it may be due to score effects, the Devils have out-shot their collective opposition in the second period, whereas the opposition had the advantage under MacLean.
Of course, this is by no means definitive namely because Lemaire has been coach for a little over a third of the time MacLean has had the team this season. There's a lot more season left for the Devils to get messed up in the second period (or to mess up opponents). I do plan on returning to this issue by game #66 or so when both coaches can be judged more evenly. Hopefully, the Devils can improve further or at least sustain not getting collectively beaten on in second periods.
Plus, this isn't to say there are no other factors at play. For example, score effects. In each of the 6 games the Devils went into the second period losing, they've out-shot their opposition in 5 of those games. It's really of no surprise that the Devils would out-shoot a team while losing. Likewise, this isn't to say the Devils no longer have any problems - just that the second period hasn't gone as poorly as it did under MacLean.
Nevertheless, I believe this represents a step forward under Lemaire, and that ultimately answers the question. That the Devils have only allowed 2 game winning goals in the second under Lemaire as opposed to the 11 under MacLean (yeah, a third of his games) is a step forward. That the Devils have reduced their second period goals allowed per game rate to below 1 is a step forward. Are the Devils doing any better in the second period under Lemaire? Yes. Will it last? I don't know. But based on this month so far, there's reason for Devils fans to not dread the start of future second periods. That's improvement regardless of magnitude.
I'd like to hear your thoughts on the Devils and second periods under Lemaire. Do you dread them as you might have earlier in the season? Do you think the Devils can maintain or improve upon their current numbers? What other areas of the game would you like to see examined to determine whether the Devils got better under Lemaire? Please leave your answers and other relevant thoughts in the comments. Thanks for reading.
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This is a pretty drastic change...
But do you think it’s because something’s changed about how the Devils approach the middle frame or because they’re playing a more complete game from start to finish?
Personally I think this is the result of the Devils back-checking and fighting for pucks harder than they used to, and be better conditioned. A lot of my friends like to laugh when the announcers constantly talk about the “long change” in the 2nd period but it really does make a difference.
A lot of fans who don’t play hockey may not understand what those extra few strides to the bench cost you in the 2nd period. If you’re already caught behind then it’s a few more seconds for your tired back-checkers to get a change and a few less seconds for the pressuring team to get fresh legs into the offensive zone. In a game as fast as hockey those few seconds are the difference between a goal and not.
The fact that we’ve been even in goals in the 2nd period is clearly the result of improved conditioning under Lemaire.
Question for John, is it possible to break these stats down into 5-on-5 vs Power-Play/Penalty-Kill goals? Just for curiosity.
One has to admit that at least partially, it is due to them “playing a more complete game from start to finish,” but there’s no arguing the falloff in the second was worse than either the first or third.
On a somewhat related note, the Devils finished the MacLean era with an overall shooting percentage of 5.81%. It took a number of games (9) to get and remain above that, but so far the team is shooting at an 8.73% clip since Lemaire has taken over. Small sample size, to be sure, but still a nice difference. Under MacLean, the team’s best 12 game stretch was games 10-21 at 6.99%. So apples to apples, Lemaire’s Devils are performing approximately 25% better than MacLean’s best stretch. Coincidence? You decide.
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On a somewhat related note, the Devils finished the MacLean era with an overall shooting percentage of 5.81%. It took a number of games (9) to get and remain above that, but so far the team is shooting at an 8.73% clip since Lemaire has taken over. Small sample size, to be sure, but still a nice difference. Under MacLean, the team’s best 12 game stretch was games 10-21 at 6.99%. So apples to apples, Lemaire’s Devils are performing approximately 25% better than MacLean’s best stretch. Coincidence? You decide.
It’s not a coincidence. It’s a regression…to the mean (insert “Won’t get fooled again” by the Who here)
But seriously: Lemaire’s benefiting from some positive bounces on offense among other things. What’s striking is the reduction in goals allowed in the second period.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
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by John Fischer on Jan 18, 2011 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
It’s a regression.
Strongly disagree. Dismissing it as a regression implies that it would still have risen if MacLean had remained the coach. I agree that it’s no coincidence that it began to rise under Lemaire, but it’s not because the universe refuses to allow shooting percentages to remain low if they were higher previously but rather because whatever changes Lemaire implemented lead to more, better chances to score, which, in turn, leads to more opportunities for beneficial luck.
What’s striking is the reduction in goals allowed in the second period.
As you say, the team as a whole is playing better. I find it entirely disingenuous to pass it off as “benefiting from some positive bounces.”
If that were indeed the case, wouldn’t the timing be rather odd that after a coaching switch the bounces started going the team’s way?
As you say, the team as a whole is playing better. I find it entirely disingenuous to pass it off as "benefiting from some positive bounces."
If that were indeed the case, wouldn’t the timing be rather odd that after a coaching switch the bounces started going the team’s way?
but it’s not ‘after a coaching change’. the devils were 1-7 under lemaire with the same terrible shooting. you can also credit the langenbrunner trade, if you wish to look for things that may or may not be the cause. does it have something to do with the coaching change? possibly, perhaps even probably. but we can’t say for sure.
Technically, it is after a coaching change—not immediately after, but after nonetheless—but I know how you enjoy parsing specific words to twist a statement to set up straw men, so I’ll just leave it at that.
but we can’t say for sure.
Precisely, which is why one can’t credit it to a statistical regression, which was my point.
I agree that Fischer is wrong in calling it a regression, but ‘regression’ itself is not a cause, it’s an observed phenomenon. Usually the ‘cause’ for observed regression is expected to be chance, but that’s a more murky issue.
My point was that there can be any number of attributed causes, and picking coaching as definitely the cause feels incorrect to me. Coaching is the most likely cause, but coaches have shown no long-term effect on shooting percentage.
Coaching is the most likely cause, but coaches have shown no long-term effect on shooting percentage.
We’re not talking about long-term, we’re talking about MacLean vs. Lemaire. Under MacLean the team shot at an unprecedented and historically—many would say unsustainably—poor rate, and since Lemaire has taken over it’s gotten progressively better.
That it was higher under Lemaire, went down under MacLean, and has begun to rise under Lemaire again suggests pretty strongly that JMac was somehow negatively influencing the shooting percentage.
There are other possible contributing factors, but moving a couple of guys up and down from the AHL and trading away one player is far less likely to have such an impact as a change in the head coach and all that that entails.
If attributing it to the head coach feels wrong to you, what do you attribute it to? I’m genuinely curious because it seems so innately obvious to me that it’s almost entirely due to the coaching change that I accept that I might be blinding myself to other possibilities (though I steadfastly refuse to accept that it’s coincidence).
We’re not talking about long-term, we’re talking about MacLean vs. Lemaire. Under MacLean the team shot at an unprecedented and historically—many would say unsustainably—poor rate, and since Lemaire has taken over it’s gotten progressively better.
But this has been the crux of our series of arguments. You usually wish to restrict things to what we’re immediately looking at. I think that looking that close will often distort things. Shooting percentage often goes up after a coaching change – Renney to Tortorella and Hartsburg to Clouston are two coaching changes I can remember in recent memory where it was clear that the teams in question were shooting at an unsustainably low percentage, and that these percentages rose after the firings. So what’s the true cause?
If you had to pin me to a cause, I would not say the change from MacLean to Lemaire is the reason, but rather just a change in coaching in general is part of the reason. A different, confident voice. I would not attribute the failures to MacLean necessarily, nor the success to Lemaire necessarily. The team perhaps got locked into some bad habits that Lemaire may have unlocked them from. But again, I think this situation can happen to any two NHL-qualified coaches.
There’s also the fact that the Devils have played the team with the worst save percentage twice during this stretch, and they’ve also played a terrible Islanders team using a 4th string goalie. That’s likely to affect things as well.
So, no, I wouldn’t attribute this resurgence entirely to chance, but there’s certainly some of that in there.
I’m only restricting things to what we’re immediately looking at because that’s what the discussion is about. That no coach has been shown to have a long-term affect on shooting percentage is not really relevant (and probably an incomplete study, since the ones with abysmal S% like MacLean probably don’t keep their jobs long enough to see what would happen) when discussing why their S% has gone up post-MacLean.
You’re probably right, though, in that it’s more in the change in coach in general than it is the actual, specific coach.
There are two factors here:
The coaching change
The trade of the ‘Captain’
To me it is a culture change that has helped improve the team’s play.
Reading between the lines, let’s face it….Lamoriello choose the players (Langs) over the coach (Lemaire) at the end of last season. His believe in his players has been one of his best and one of his worst traits recently. With the request to bring Lemaire back, was to me the admission that LL had let the inmates start to run the asylum. If what happened last year (according to Tremblay) actually happened there is no way Langenbrunner should have been allowed to continue to be a Devil.
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by Tom Stivali on Jan 19, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
Ha. I forget to give my ‘opinion’. I would agree with you and I don’t think it was a statistical inevitability that the shooting %’s would increase.
In Lou We Trust: SBN Blog of the New Jersey Devils
by Tom Stivali on Jan 19, 2011 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
Question for John, is it possible to break these stats down into 5-on-5 vs Power-Play/Penalty-Kill goals? Just for curiosity.
Sure. It’ll take some time (read: it won’t be done tomorrow), but it can be done.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Jan 18, 2011 11:30 PM EST up reply actions
johnny mac
awesome post like usual
i have just one question has anyone heard from j mac, i know he tried as a coach i still have a lot of respect for him.. i just picture him in his house drinking a bottle of whiskey with a caveman beard
Might be a worthy question to ask of TG on Fire & Ice (without the whiskey and beard portions, mind you).
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Lemaire’s got some serious NHL experience, he knows everything about the game, about the Devils I would say.
When I knew he was back, I coud’ve not been much pleased. He’s the perfect fit to right the ship.
Jacques’s doing the right things at the right time, reminded or taught the players the fundamentals, he called up almost instantly the right guy (Zharkov). Coincidently, Jamie’s been traded quickly, Jacques had no fear to bench Marty or to scratch the fans favorite Tedenby, He’s got Kovy completely under control. (amazing turnaround)
Truth is, with the big slap from the Jmac episode, players are buying into the system like they always should do.
by Elektrostal_Kid on Jan 18, 2011 9:45 PM EST reply actions
I believe it is pretty clear the Devils are playing better under JL. Not trying to be mean but answer this question: Have the Devils been playing after trading Langs?
by 31setab on Jan 19, 2011 12:04 AM EST via mobile reply actions
In my opinion the team is playing much better as a unit, and show little difference in their game from period to period. The defense has been keeping goals against down and are apparently communicating better with each other, and Marty to do this. The forwards are forechecking and backchecking for the entire game, playing the full 60 minutes.
In the post-game interviews I hear player after player saying the things Jacques has about how to improve their game. After being returned to the line-up against the Isles, Tedenby said sitting out and watching the “system” in operation helped him. Is it a coincidence that he had his best game of the season? Notice that Jacques put him with Zharkie and the two of them have the beginnings of the chemistry we should see a lot of next season.
I wonder if the players who tuned Jacques out late last season now realize their mistake and have bought into it now. Could Jamie’s difference of opinion with Jacques last season be the reason he was traded?
Jacques said he wanted to get the team to play competitively and this seems to be happening. I know it’s only a few games but the team seems to be responding to his messages. Did anyone notice Ilya backchecking and going back to help out the defense in the Devils zone? Lemaire said Kovy wants to learn that part of the game and is listening to him.
I think the last 5 or so games are proof enough that this team is working harder under Lemaire. My worry is that when next season rolls around and we replace him, the sky will be falling once again. On the other hand, we could score a great coach who can bring “new NHL” speed and style to this team.
No matter what system the Devils are employing, I hope it sets up Kovalchuk at the point on PP’s like last game. That shot could take a goalie’s head off.
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