In Lou We Trust Mid-Term Draft Roundtable: Who Goes #1?
by Tom Stivali on Jan 24, 2011 8:39 AM EST
in Prospects - Devils & Otherwise
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At this point of the season most Devils fans have resigned themselves to the fact that the playoffs aren't a realistic option for 2011. With that being the case, a lot of our thoughts have been focused on the 2011 Entry Draft. For the first time in my lifetime as a Devils fan, I will be glued to the TV set (or maybe even a trip to Minnesota) on Draft Day.
In honor of the Central Scouting Services Mid-Term Rankings being released two weeks ago and Bob McKenzie of TSN releasing his Mid-Term Rankings last week, John, Kevin, Matt and I decided to do an In Lou We Trust Mid-Term Draft Roundtable. It's not a full mock draft because we only care about the Devils and the Devils are currently the worst team in the NHL, meaning we are only picking one player each. Each of us has independently chosen the draft eligible player -or scenario- he thinks fits the organization going forward.
Disclaimer: We know it's early. Other trades the Devils may make or injuries may open up a need that they don't have right now. We also haven't been able to fully research all of the available options out there. There is also a possibility the Devils might continue to play better and end up passing the New York Islanders or Edmonton Oilers, or both, and land a lower pick. Further, we are operating under the idea that this player would not be active at the NHL level next year. For a strong viewpoint as to why that is the best course of action, re-read John's post from last week.
Ok, now onto our Mid-Term Draft Roundtable.
Tom Stivali: Adam Larsson, D, Skelleftea
As I read up on the 2011 draft, I keep reading the same things: "It's a weak draft class", "No generational talent", "Anyone of the top 7 or 8 ranked players could end up being the best". That doesn't really inspire much confidence when drafting first does it? Many feel that a player like Sean Couturier will be a quality NHL player one day, perhaps even a future Selke Trophy candidate. But do the Devils need another player with this skill-set? Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has loads of 'potential' and his vision on the ice has been compared to Joe Sakic Pavel Datsuyk. But do the Devils want to take a chance that he will be able to physically play at the NHL level? To me the safe, smart pick is Adam Larsson.
Larsson would be added to a nice collection of young defensemen that the Devils have put together the last few years. Thought by some to be better at this stage of his development than Victor Hedman (2nd overall pick in the 2009 draft by the Tampa Bay Lightning), he has the size and skills that make him the top defensive prospect. In New Jersey, he would have mentors both young (Alexander Urbom) and old (Henrik Tallinder) who can help acclimate him to the North American game.
With veterans ahead of him on the depth chart and a number of younger players vying for spots in the near future, his development can be paced to meet his performance. The depth at defense ensures he won't be immediately expected to step in and become the team's savior like John Tavares was for the New York Islanders. There won't be a need to rush him. He can stay in the SEL for an additional year and then play in Albany or jump to New Jersey the following year if ready. On a team with Ilya Kovalchuk and (hopefully) Zach Parise, Larsson will initially be a compliment to the talent the Devils have and be able to grow into a premeir player.
John Fischer: Adam Larsson, D, Skelleftea
The subset of top prospects for the 2011 NHL Entry Draft is Sean Couturier, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Gabriel Landeskog, and Adam Larsson. I wouldn't really complain about the Devils getting any one of these four, but if he was available, I'd be the happiest with Larsson. Unlike the other three, Larsson plays in a professional league and has been a regular for Skelleftea's first team in the SEL since 2009-10. He's not just a defenseman playing against developed players and fully-grown men, he's been doing it for two seasons now. Scouts praise his calmness, his large frame (6'3"), and his two-way abilities.
I'm not convinced that the Devils absolutely, positively need a stud defenseman to be successful; but Larsson is the best shot in this year's draft to be that kind of player. Not that any 18 year old in the draft can immediately make an impact in New Jersey, but Larsson's upside on defense would be a benefit to the system along with Jon Merill. Plus, selecting him comes with the added advantage of a professional status; meaning he can continue as a pro in Sweden or jump right to the AHL and get acclimated to the North American game while his likely-expensive ELC slides for two years, which is what the Devils should do regardless of who they pick. This would be preferable to having Couturier, Nugent-Hopkins, and Landeskog go to juniors for 2 years.
Matthew Ventolo: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Red Deer Rebels
If your in that group that wants to see the Devils pick up a potential #1, play-making center, then Nugent-Hopkins is the man for you. In his second full season in the WHL, he's been an assist machine this year for the Rebels. Lauded for his vision and ability to see plays before they happen, he would be a great addition for the ample scoring wingers the Devils possess in their system. His great speed to top off a well rounded scoring touch gives him much promise to be a top 6 forward. Some scouts say he holds the most potential out of this year's draft class. He wants to improve his defensive game and former NHL coach Ken Hitchcock even compares him to Pavel Datsyuk.
He's too young to make an impact in the NHL for next season (he will turn 18 in April), especially with his size (6'0" 165 lbs). He will need to develop further and grow into his frame to be effective in the dirty areas needed to excel in today's NHL. When drafted, another year perhaps two in the Juniors will benefit him. With the entry-level slide option, a team like the Devils should take advantage to give him the time he needs. Just think, he could be quarterbacking a powerplay with Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise a few years down the road.
Kevin Sellathamby: Trading down to draft Ryan Strome (C, Niagara)
With the 1st overall pick, the Devils have the first crack at the likes of Larsson, Couturier and Nugent-Hopkins. I'd love to have any of the three, but the Devils also have another option- trading down. Trading down to re-coup draft picks (or improve the position of the draft pick obtained by Dallas) might be an interesting choice, especially with the talented Ryan Strome, who will likely be available if the Devils do trade down. He's having a breakout season this year with 24 goals and 65 points in 42 games.
Strome has an excellent skillset, and is especially dangerous with the puck. His excellent shot coupled with his playmaking ability and speed makes the 6'1 183 lb Strome a threat on the ice. He's also a hard worker in both the offensive and defensive zone. The one area where Strome is criticized is his physical play, as many scouts have complained about his lack of physicality hurts him when it comes to board battles.
Given another year or two, he might be able to work on this weakness in this game and become a more complete player (and allowing the Entry Level contract to slide). I feel that Strome is more of a project than a guaranteed blue chipper like Larsson, Couturier or Nugent-Hopkins, but in this case the risk might just be worth the reward.
Thanks for reading. Who do you think is the best fit for the Devils? Larsson? Nugent Hopkins? Strome? Someone we haven't mentioned? Sound off below.
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Larson for me, just because I would love to see a defense like we had in the past. Full of awesome players. However, Nugent-Hopkins looked really good in the Top Prospects game. Either of those two would make me happy but I would prefer not to trade down.
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I say Larsson.
I feel that this team is one more D-man away from being solid on the blue line. I like our prospects and I like most of the D-men that we have now. We just need a star offensive defenseman that can go 15g-30a-45p.
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First of all, I don’t know how far down you think Strome will be. He’s in the top-10 in most people’s mock drafts, and I think I ranked him 6th behind Murphy and the top-4 (player not mentioned is Landeskog).
I’m tossed up. Couturier, by my watch, is out. He must be a pretty good player, because his stats are pretty impressive, but he’s not a dominant player, and every time I watch him (WJC…), he doesn’t impress me and that’s what the scouts said after the CHL Prospect’s Game. I personally would stay away from Couturier.
Here’s the toss-up. I like the other two big guys, Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson. The question is, which position are the Devils deeper and stronger at with prospects? At center, Josefson, Henrique and MacIntyre are probably the top 3 center prospects the Devils have, and while all figure to have at least tryouts for the big club next season, none really fit the #1 center description (I still consider Zajac a great 2nd line center, but not the necessary 1st liner). Every team needs a dominant 1st line center, it’s just how the NHL is right now. Crosby, Datysuk, Backstrom, Getzlaf, Richards (x2), even Toews, they’re all #1 centers. I’m not sure Zajac will ever evolve and be that player.
Anyway, it’s Nugent-Hopkins if you want a center. He’s the best 2-way forward available and he’s an extremely hard worker. He is a great playmaker and scouts feel that his game will fit the NHL ticket very nicely.
Adam Larsson is going to be the best overall player 5-6 years from now. He’s a powerful skater if that makes any sense, and while he doesn’t have Niedermayer speed, he has tremendous hands with the puck and is a better offensive player than Hedman is, even right now. He’d be my 1a, and NH would be 1b right now.
The problem, if you want to call it that, is the Devils may not have the 1st overall pick, as their chances reduce with every team they pass. If the Oilers or Islanders have the 1st overall pick, they’ll take Larsson without thinking twice, which is why if the Devils or one of the other two takes Larsson, the Oilers/Islanders may want to trade down and stock up picks for later in the draft or next year. I suppose Ottawa must be included in the mix as well, as they are in free fall right now. The Sens would probably draft Couturier or Landeskog or NH. Karlsson is their #1 D-man moving forward, and they need a center to fill the role they thought Spezza would.
So, that doesn’t really “solve” much. Basically, if he’s available when the Devils are up, take Larsson. The Devils have always built around defensemen, and Larsson + Merrill + Taormina is a nice young group. Joe Yerdon of Yahoo Sports told me yesterday that he thinks Taormina will be the Devils’ #1 puck-mover going forward. On the flip side, if Larsson isn’t available, we’ll have to hope Gelinas and Burlon and those guys are ready for the NHL in the next 2-3 years. Then I would want Nugent-Hopkins. He seems like a Ryan Kesler-esque player, and they might be too generous for NH, but I’ve liked him everywhere I’ve seen him so far.
My top-5 ranking would be Larsson, Nugent-Hopkings, Landeskog (the quiet prospect, but he’s good), Couturier, Murphy, Strome 6th (Murphy and Strome aren’t as far behind Couturier as people initially thought, though).
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McKenzie had him ranked 6th overall in his rankings, and my guess in trading down would be 4th-5th (I’m guessing Ottawa would want the 1st overall pick, seeing as the Sens could get what they want [excellent blue chip forward], and the Devils could get something from Ottawa).
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by Kevin Sellathamby on Jan 24, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
Larsson
Josefson does have the abilities to play a top 6 center role once Elias comes off contract so thats his spot for the future. Henrique will be a solid 3rd line checking role because that’s the way he plays.
If Landeskog ends up to be all he is hyped up to be, then I guess I’d be fine with him too.
I don’t think the Devils have that great a shot at the 1st overall pick anymore. They are so clearly a better team than the Islanders and Oilers. But I’m sure you guys started doing this more than 2 days ago.
Since the talent levels are so close, I don’t mind thinning the herd with concerns about some of these top players, rather than discussing any of their strengths.
Couturier – his skating worries me. This guy would’ve been an absolute beast pre-lockout (think Keith Primeau with better scoring touch), but I am concerned he will top out as a guy you can bring out against the toughs to break even, a la Jordan Staal. A nice addition, to be sure, but not something I definitely want to sign up for.
Nugent-Hopkins – his size and even strength scoring worry me. Over at Copper N Blue a poster broke down the scoring among would-be high draft picks in junior. His size concerns me because if he can’t cut it as a center, he’s a left handed shot and that makes LW the natural position. That’s not really acceptable.
Landeskog – he’s a left-handed shot, so that already has me concerned. The scouts’ consensus seems to be that Landeskog is a low-ish upside, high character player. I can’t argue with that, and if he shot right-handed, I’d sign up for that in a second.
Murphy – same deal w/ Nugent-Hopkins.
The players I’d be looking at are Huberdeau and Strome, and I’d always be open to trading down if we don’t get #1 overall. The Devils have to come out of this with either an RW, a C, or a D – they can’t have another LW.
Following Gelinas, I have seen a bit of Huberdeau and I wouldn’t be shocked if he shot up into the top 5. That team (Saint John Sea Dogs) is loaded with talent. They could probably beat the Islanders right now (I kid, I kid)
Guys like Huberdeau, Murphy and Dougie Hamilton are all born mid-93 so they get a little bump in my books.
Couturier could end up being the Devils eventual pick should they drop to a mid or late top 10 position. I think he offers great value there, not so much as a top 3 guy. I think Couturier will slip a bit since teams/analysts seem to be looking for reasons to knock him.
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by Tom Stivali on Jan 24, 2011 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
As an aside, I wouldn’t want Hamilton, nor do I think a defenseman should be drafted unless it’s Larsson. The Devils already have a converted forward project in Gelinas and I wouldn’t want another one.
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by Tom Stivali on Jan 24, 2011 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
I think someone will take Couturier high, but we’ll see. There’s a tendency to overvalue a 16 year old’s production in junior and to underhype the guy who was once hyped – i’ve seen it with jay bouwmeester, nathan horton, and others who’ll come to mind eventually. did john tavares come close to 72 goals in his later junior hockey years? no, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t awesome in junior and won’t make an excellent NHL player.
I wouldn’t worry about Nugent-Hopkins’ size. At 6’0", he may even grow a little bit and he should fatten up.
Tedenby is listed as 5’10" 175lbs and he’s doing pretty well in the corners. And he played on the larger rink in Europe. Parise is 5’11" 195lbs, which could be Nugent-Hopkins size when he’s that age.
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by Matthew Ventolo on Jan 24, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
These players are not centers. I am not worried about him not succeeding in the NHL because of his size, I am concerned that he won’t be able to stay at center, leaving us with a positional logjam.
The even strength scoring stats are troubling, but I’m not concerned about Nugent-Hopkins’ size. Look at Claude Giroux, who makes up for lack of size with a lot of craftiness, speed, and creativity. Stamkos isn’t much bigger than him, nor is Savard or Briere. All have played the center position successfully. And RNH’s height is in line with Josefson and Henrique’s, though he will probably never bulk up to their size.
If you mean to say that he can’t be a great defensive center without more size, then I’d agree. But that matters more for Couturier, who’s being touted as more of a Selke-type than a challenger for the Art Ross. Not that I think a smallish player with speed can’t play good defense, but they have to work harder at it. Nugent-Hopkins wouldn’t be drafted, though, with that kind of role in mind.
My gut and just general sense of the organization says they are going to for Larsson if he’s available to them. And I wouldn’t mind Adam Larsson in the least, but I’m with John in the opinion that this team doesn’t need a blue chipper like him on the D to be successful especially with how John Merrill is developing and I think he has #1 D-Man potential at this point.
What I really hope is the Devils do not go for Couturier because the last thing they need is another two-way center in the system. This team desperately needs to draft or bring in a playmaker and I hope that if they go that route it’s with Nugent-Hopkins. People’s concerns about his size I think is silly. Devils have drafted pretty small or undersized players before that have really worked out for them (Gio, Parise). That old adage of a player being to small to succeed is slowly making it’s way out, especially if they can skate, are fast and have great vision and puck control… which basically sums up Nugent-Hopkins scouting.
I also am game to trading to a lower pick in the top 10 if it brings back something the team can use immediately going into the next season. But given the general thought that this draft class is weak, i doubt many teams are going to be looking to trade up, at least not from the top 15 picks.
It’s especially tought to judge size when a player is still 17 years old.
Trading down is something I would consider if the Devils can somehow get a team to trade them a #1 pick within the next 3 years to help mitigate the loss of the future 1st round pick because of Kovygate.
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by Tom Stivali on Jan 24, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t believe Zajac, Josefson, or Henrique will ever be top-notch scoring centers. They’ll all be good two-way players to complement our wingers, but with a draft pick this high I would want to get a guy who is really capable of either driving the offense or anchoring the defense. Couturier and Landeskog, I think, have matured early and will end up as the two-way type. I’d be happy with Larsson, the Nuge, Strome, or Huberdeau, but I think the need at center is greater going forward than the need at D, and I think the Devils’ draft position could be anywhere from #1-7 at this point, so it’s worth thinking about Strome/Huberdeau vs Murphy/Hamilton.
Either NH or Larsson would be amazing, but I feel as if, in todays NHL, a clear cut defensive beast is what most Cup worthy teams have (Lidstrom, Pronger, Keith, even Letang is garnering consideration). Offensively, a great 1st line centre is an amazing thing to have, but we have Zajac (more of a 1b or 2 than a 1st line) and Josefson (who could turn into another 1b), who although aren’t 1st liners will be made better by Parise/Kovy playing with them. Not to mention Tedenby.
The premium in today’s NHL is on a great defense. With Merill, Urbom, Tallinder, Volchenkov, Greene (should he stay) and possibly Larsson, that’s an amazing top 6 should the prospects develop well and the veterans remain. I don’t know that’s just my gut feeling that although NH is a great player and will most likely be one at the upper level, Larsson has a higher ceiling and the Devils would be fools to pass him up should they have the chance.
Adam Larsson for Devil's Draftee 2011
Nugent-Hopkins
I watched most of the CHL Prospects game and NH really impressed. His vision is great. Although I also saw Lou’s interview where he says he doesn’t put too much stock in one game.
I don’t usually watch much of the Draft, how often do teams trade down from the top 5? In the NFL, you can’t give away the top pick (since the player makes obscene money). Of course, if teams feel the top 8 or so players are indistinguishable, I think you’d have trouble getting value to move down a handful of spots; teams could just wait for their pickand get an equal quality pick.
As Triumph44 said above, you guys probably started this a few days ago. We all know 1st overall pick goes to the team that wins the lottery. If the odds are the same as last season, I suspect the Devils will have either 8.1% or 10.7% odds of winning the lottery at best. They will likely finish 26th, 27th overall, or better. If everybody plays at their pace from their last 10 games (unrealistic, I know, but it’s a starting point), the Devils would finish 23rd overall with 78 points. So, more realistically, the Devils and their fans should probably plan on having between the 4th and 8th picks overall. With the way they’ve been playing lately, I’d bet more on the 8th pick than the 4th.
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