A Look at Zone Starts and Finishes for the New Jersey Devils
by Matthew Ventolo on Oct 19, 2011 12:04 PM EDT
in Devils Issues, Views & Analysis
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PrintYesterday, Kevin took a look at David Clarkson's zone starts over the past few seasons. As the story came up, I laughed - since I too was working on zone start data for today. So I guess we have a nice little theme going on during the Devils five-day hiatus. Anyway...
I thought now would be a good time to look at the zone starts and zone finishes for the New Jersey Devils so far this season. Sure, it's only a few games into the season and there isn't much data, but with a new coach, new players, and new lines - it good to understand early in the season where players will be starting there shifts at a faceoff and where they end up at a stoppage. Combining this information can conclude a number of things: One, if a certain player is moving the puck in the right direction more than not. Two, If certain lines are starting is disadvantageous areas. Three, what lines and pairings are considered more defensive than some (and vice versa) under DeBoer.
I obtained the zone starts from timeonice.com. You can get shift charts, Corsi, Fenwick, and zone starts from them (all you need is the game number - zone start faceoffs example). I got the zone finishes from behindthenet.ca - they have tons of advanced statistics including zone starts. However, they only have information for the first three Devils games. When they get the 4th game in sometime today, I'll update it. Also, these are at 5-on-5.
[UPDATED: Behind the Net has the data up from last game...h/t Triumph44]
Defense
The Andy Greene and Adam Larsson pairing is getting a lot of offensive zone starts. Over 63%, or about 11 more starts in the offensive zone. This shouldn't surprise you since both are offensive minded players who can shoot and pass the puck. I had a good feeling when DeBoer put this and the rest of the pairings together. This gives the Devils offense some much needed help at the blue line yet at the same time, it protects Larsson. He's able to do what he does best in the best zone. As an 18 year old rookie, this is a very smart move by DeBoer.
They do get pushed back into their own zone however. My theory would be they are on longer than most forwards and a dump in is needed for a change, thus possession changing. Another is they get the opposing team's best players. What's good is Greene and Larsson have been very good in transition defense. Both players aren't slow at all and they have shown so far that they are smart. I've been keeping a close eye on Larsson during these situations and he's very good one-on-one when a player enters the zone. He uses his stick very well and always knows when to attack the puck handler. I guess this is my weekly pro-Larsson portion - let's hope we get used to it.
If you thought the Bryce Salvador and Anton Volchenkov pairing was the shutdown pair, well that may be right in a way. They actually start in the offensive zone more than not, each around 56%. What's even more strange is their zone finishes are even higher than that! They have the highest OZF% of any player who has played in every game. This pairing gets the 2nd best competition, yet the worst teammates. It's pretty astonishing they are able to move the puck in the right direction. That's just stellar defense. They have not been on the ice for a goal against at 5-on-5. Salvador has been getting more and more into his groove after missing last season. It's really nice to have him back.
The pairing that has been getting the roughest work is Mark Fayne and Henrik Tallinder. Each under 41% in offensive zone starts is not easy, and they get pushed back to under 30% offensive zone finish. What scares me a bit is they get the worst competition (only pair with negative QualComp), and fair teammates. Are the starts to blame? I would hope so. Tallinder hasn't showed me much this season - and that gaffe against Carolina still kind of bothers me (I know..get it over Matt). I would have thought that last year's arguably best pairing would be able to move the puck in up ice against such weak competition.
Offense
The Zach Parise, Patrik Elias and Petr Sykora line is best in terms of Corsi, yet they start in the offensive zone only around 40%. Both Parise and Elias are good defensively and hard working and that means Corsi machines and moving the puck in the right direction. They finish slightly more in the offensive zone (between 40% and 48%). Other teams have to worry about them, which is a great line to have. Sykora is a good compliment player for them as well and they protect him in a way (though that may not last too long). I don't know how I feel about moving Dainius Zubrus here. In the next paragraph, I explain.
The Ilya Kovalchuk, Jacob Josefson, Nick Palmieri line is heavily protected. They aren't the best defensive players and when they lose possession of the puck, the puck goes quickly the other way. This shouldn't surprise you since two players are coming off their rookie seasons and Kovalchuk is, well Kovalchuk. Their offensive zone finish drops to around 43%. Their Corsi numbers aren't very good either. I can see this being a problem against very deep teams. Hopefully Zajac's rehab is going well.
This is where Zubrus should be in my opinion. He can play better defense than Josefson and can help Kovy and Palms when possession is against them. Also, this would be a very big line - and the physicality in Zuburs and Palmieri can create more space for Kovy. It may lead DeBoer into giving the 2nd line less offensive zone starts (and giving the 3rd more, which would benefit Clarkson and Tedenby). This is where Zajac is heavily missed from a standpoint of zone starts.
Clarkson, Mattias Tedenby and Zubrus have mixed numbers. Tedenby is protected and getting 60% offensive zone starts. He's got the 4th best Corsi on the team (among real players), yet like the 2nd line, he gets pushed back to under 50% zone finish. Would he be better protected with players like Parise and Elias? Zubrus and Clarkson both have positive offensive zone finishes. Perhaps throwing Sykora on that line will hinder that? I'd rather this new line get a few more offensive zone starts.
As for the 4th line members, all except Cam Janssen have very low offensive start %. Adam Henrique move the puck up ice with a 70% zone finish % in his two games. I hope he comes back. Same goes for Eric Boulton. Just note, becuase most of these guys have played one or two games, there is much data here. DeBoer does trust these guys more than I thought considering Bradley Mills and Boulton start more in the defensive zone.
Overall, I think DeBoer has utilized his lines very well in terms in zone starts. He best line can start anywhere and make things happen, his 2nd line is strictly for offensive zone starts and his 3rd and 4th are mixed (yet their zone finishes suggest they are playing well). When Zajac returns, he may have two two lines that can start anywhere - which would the 3rd line more offensive starts and protect his 4th line a little more.
As for defense, his pairings are solid. They make sense logically (two offensive players, two defensive players, and two mixed) and it's worked out so far. I feel bad for Mark Fraser in a way, becuase at this rate, he'll never get a game in.
So what do you think about the zone starts and finishes so far this season? How has DeBoer utilized his pairings and lines in terms in zone starts? Thanks for reading.
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Again, I wouldn’t worry about Kovalchuck’s line. His game is kind of dependent on not having possession. I know that’s normally the exact opposite from what you’re supposed to do, but Kovy’s athleticism, pure skating skill, and exceptional stick handling ability are all tools that he is able to use in such a way that… well, his line giving up some possession and giving the opposition almost free reign to our defensive zone is a part of his game. Luckily we have good goalies and a good defensive corp, so it’s not as much of a problem as his play was while he played for the Thrashers (there’s actually a good reason why the Thrashers were willing to part with him, and why the trade seemed to have a better perceived immediate impact on the Thrashers than it did for our Devils).
I still think that putting Clarkson on the first line with Parise and Elias might be a good idea… although, that kindof exposes our third and fourth lines as being a bit weak. I’m not sure what to make of Zubrus on the first line either, yet. It certainly doesn’t seem to be a bad thing.
Overall, my big takeaways are:
I’m growing more and more impressed with how DeBoer is handling the team. He seems to run great practices, and his willingness to intelligently shake up lines on the fly and to shake up the team’s routine in response to the way that they react (giving the players Monday off, vs running somewhat lighter practices every day as was done prior to the opener against Philly).
Larsson seems to be doing a surprisingly good job. Yea, he’s an 18 year old rookie, and we obviously shouldn’t get carried away. The Calder whispers aren’t that ridiculous, though (Ryan Neugent appears to be doing exceptional as well, but if there’s a team that shouldn’t burn an ELC this year it would be Edmonton. Remains to be seen what they decide, but I think that N-H is Larsson’s main Calder competition right now).
Again, I wouldn’t worry about Kovalchuck’s line. His game is kind of dependent on not having possession.
Bollocks. His game is dependent on being fed the puck in a position (just about any position) in which he has a chance to shoot.
He’s capable of scoring on the rush, but other teams know that, which is why they collapse on him when he carries the puck into the OZ and he has so many turnovers.
Without someone on his line to maintain possession so that he can receive the puck with enough time and space to shoot, then it’s definitely something to worry about—deeper teams will eat his line alive.
I still think that putting Clarkson on the first line with Parise and Elias might be a good idea
Except that line tends to get the toughest competition and the most defensive zone starts; neither playing to Clarkson’s strengths. While it’s quite possible that Parise and Elias could carry him, it’s not optimal to have the top line have to carry anyone. I suspect that’s why we’ve seen Sykora moved down.
Bollocks.
Kudos for sincere use of the word “bollocks” by a non-British person (you aren’t British, right?)
Agreed, though, it’s never good to be pinned back the way Kovy’s line is getting, no matter how good he is on the rush. I’m with Matt on the “this line needs Zajac to not be injured anymore” bandwagon.
Status quo.
Normally it isn’t good, but that’s the way that Kovy plays. Always has been, so it’s kinda crazy to think that it’s going to change now. At least Lemare was able to convince him and teach him how to play a bit more defensively and actually backcheck a little, vs his tendency to sit in the center ice circle when he was with Atlanta (and when he first arrived in NJ).
When with Lemaire he was being Centered by Zajac and had Palmieri playing above his head on the RW.
There’s much debate about whether or not Zajac is a “true” number one Centerman, but regardless of one’s feelings on the matter he’s better than Josefson is right now when it comes to driving play and maintaining possession.
Without that element from his Center, and without Palmieri playing as well as he did last year (though he has stepped it up the past couple of games), his impressive offensive talent is going to be largely wasted in the defensive zone.
Agreed on everything you said here.
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Oct 19, 2011 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Ha! Thanks, but no… not British. I did recently re-watch V for Vendetta, however. Must have picked it up through osmosis.
To the point: absolutely. Zajac can’t come back soon enough!
They’ve had spots in the past few games where they’ve looked better, to be sure, but (and understanding that the entire team played poorly in the contest) the Flyers exposed what a team with some depth can do to them.
I’m with Matt on the "this line needs Zajac to not be injured anymore" bandwagon.
Glad you mentioned that line specifically. I think Kovy needs Zajac a lot more than Parise does. As KovyisLove said, Kovy needs that playmaker. Josefson is not that guy yet. For now, I’d like the think that guy is Zubrus. If anything, this gives them some better defense and Zubrus generates shot attempts (07-08 to this season Corsi). So if Zubrus helps Kovy’s line to produce shots, they may not need a 60+% zone start, thus gives the potential Tedenby-Josefson-Clarkson line more starts in the offensive zone.
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by Matthew Ventolo on Oct 19, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Tedenby-Josefson-Clarkson line
That line scares the bejeebus out of me. The potential is there, but all that potential and $1.50 will get you a cup of coffee.
Would that relegate Sykora to the fourth line, then? I was skeptical of him on the top line to start with and don’t have a bit of confidence that he’ll be anything approaching what he was 10 years ago, but sticking him with some combination of Pelley/Boulton/Janssen seems inordinately cruel, even if it is only for ~5 minutes per night.
That line is definitely a little frightening in the defensive prowess department. I think with lines 1a and 1b firing on all cylinders when Zajac returns, you can give them favorable matchups/zone starts to mitigate that. That way, you try to harness some of that potential in the form of actual offensive output. Clarkarounds for everybody!
Status quo.
Tedenby-Josefson-Clarkson was a line last year and was quite good. I think Josefson is being sold short here.
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I’m not disagreeing, but define “quite good.”
I like Josefson and have high hopes for him, but by all appearances he’s not “there” yet. The Zajac injury is unfortunate in that it’s put (unfair?) pressure on him to do more than it seems he’s ready to do.
quite good in that it produced goals and wasn’t a negative fenwick-wise.
josefson is being asked to do a lot, but he is miles ahead of the player he was last year at this time. deboer said today that he feels confident using josefson in all situations. he’s killing penalties and doing a decent job of it. i think he’s understanding the defensive side of the game better – offense may take longer.
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I’ve been impressed with Josefson’s defense more than anything he’s done this season. He’s getting top PK minutes as well. That line wouldn’t bother me anymore.
When Zajac returns you mean? I guess Zubrus moves down do the 3rd line and Josefson centers Zharkov*/Boulton/Pelley and Kovy when double shifted
- * please bring him up
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by Matthew Ventolo on Oct 19, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
when zajac comes back, there will likely be other injuries that will make this discussion moot, but i think sykora is way more likely to be the odd man out.
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Where Janssen is doesn’t factor in to this discussion. I don’t think the Devils will play Sykora on a 4th line.
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When Zajac comes back it gives you the opportunity to roll three powerful lines capable of putting up goals and two that should dominate possession. If Kovalchuk and Josefson continue to work well like last game, there is no reason to break them up. Elias can simply dominate on the 3rd line with Tedenby and Clarkson/Sykora.
Zajac would be a better fit for Kovy now, but let’s remember that last season there were a lot of questions about a real chemistry between this 2 guys, Kovy’s got a ton of points under Lemaire because he was carrying this line, offensively speaking I mean. Zajac could be a short-term solution for Kovy at center , but my point is he’s not that well needed playmaker.
Give Josefson a bit of time, as a prospect he’ll only get better.
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Oct 19, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Kovy needs Zajac a lot more than Parise does.
Allow me to offer a dissenting opinion. I’d re-unite Zajac and Parise, but it doesn’t necessarily revolve around those two as a tandem.
Putting Travis and Zach back together would permit Kovalchuk to play with Patrick Elias, who I think is the center that can do much of what we want done with Kovalchuk on the ice. I believe Patty is the best playmaker on the team, and has the veteran “stature” in the League that Kovalchuk would defer to him at times and let Elias do the lugging of the biscuit while Ilya looks for his spots to shoot. At the same time, Elias is defensively responsible enough that he can cover for some of Ilya’s shortcomings in that particular arena.
Under a Parise-Zajac-whomever scenario (I’d lean towards Zubrus, personally) and a Kovalchuk-Elias-whomever scenario (I’m preferential to Tedenby or Zharkov, but I could be convinced to audition any number of guys here)…. Parise and Zajac handle the role Parise and Elias are now — the toughest matchups, driving play forward, et cetera. I look for Elias to rub off positively on Kovalchuk the way they did down the stretch in 2010, because we’ve seen Elias benefit nearly everyone put on his wing.
I agree, except the possession that Kovalchuk’s line has will always vary from the type of possession Parise and Elias have. Kovalchuk needs the type of possession where he can recieve a pass at all time, while the others fight on the boards. HE helps in board battles by attracting players to himself, typically two and sometimes three, which is why Palmieri is a good fit on Kovalchuks line. In essence, the second line will be dominant in two years from now, but to expect them to be great now is a bit out there.
And Kovalchuk speeds away, great moves, busting through, DID YOU SEE THAT?
I would wait till the 10 game mark to start making assessments on coaching styles but one trend I really don’t like seems to be a carry over from last year, top 9 forward’s on ice sh%.
Kovalchuk – 5.56
Josefson – 7.41
Zubrus – 0
Elias – 6.25
Palmieri – 7.41
Parise – 6.67
Sykora – 8.11
Clarkson – 4.55
Tedenby – 4.55
If we struggle to score 5 on 5 we need to be perfect defensively or lucky with special teams.
sh% is shooting Percentage I guess… I thought these numbers were already terrible last year, yikes.
Quite early though, as you mentioned it.
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Oct 19, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
The goals will come. I don’t expect anyone on the Devils to challenge for the Art Ross this year, but they’ll pick it up from their 1.75 GF/G, especially if they continue to average 31 shots per game and can ever figure out that whole PP thing.
They’ve played against some pretty good defenses in Philly and Los Angeles, and Rinne stood on his head. If things look the same in 10 games or so, then we might have cause for concern.
4th game is up on BTN, but it is far too early to be looking at these things with anything more than mild interest. I also hate zone finish, but I suppose this is not the place to explain why.
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