While I watch games, one of the stats I always glance at is the face-off percentage. A percentage doesn't tell you much about the game itself, but winning face-offs allows your team to have control of the puck. I have read some articles that tried to find a correlation between face-off percentages and various different elements, such as game outcomes, win-loss records, etc. Although, the answer always seems to be "no, there is no correlation", I wondered if a higher face-off percentage helped you advance throughout each playoff round and eventually win the Stanley Cup.
I retrieved the face-off percentage stats from NHL.com for each season beginning with the 2005-2006 season. The below charts show the teams face-off percentages and whether they advanced in each round of the playoffs.
All sets of data contain outliers, however, the same team seems to be the exception each time - the Pittsburgh Penguins. Does this mean that face-off percentages do not matter when it comes to playoff games or are the Penguins an exception to the rule? Let's go round by round and determine what face-off percentage is needed to advance:
For the quarterfinals of the playoffs, the lowest face-off percentage for all 6 seasons is 46.1% for the Penguins in the 2007-08 season. The second-to-last lowest percentage is 48.1% from both the 2005-09 Colorado Avalanche and 2008-09 Chicago Blackhawks. Since this is the first round of the playoffs, the face-off percentage differential between all of the teams will be much larger due to the number of teams that make the playoffs. So it is safe to say that your face-off percentage doesn't necessarily help you get into the playoffs and probably won't help you advance to the semifinals.
Quarterfinals |
|||||||||||
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2008-09 |
2009-10 |
2010-11 |
||||||
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
EDMONTON |
53.4 |
DETROIT |
53.6 |
DETROIT |
53.3 |
DETROIT |
55.1 |
SAN JOSE |
55.6 |
VANCOUVER |
54.9 |
CAROLINA |
51.7 |
ANAHEIM |
51.8 |
NY RANGERS |
52.3 |
VANCOUVER |
51.9 |
BOSTON |
52.6 |
SAN JOSE |
53.7 |
ANAHEIM |
50.8 |
BUFFALO |
51.4 |
SAN JOSE |
51.2 |
WASHINGTON |
51.7 |
CHICAGO |
52.4 |
BOSTON |
51.9 |
OTTAWA |
50.3 |
SAN JOSE |
51.1 |
DALLAS |
50.4 |
CAROLINA |
51.3 |
VANCOUVER |
51.4 |
DETROIT |
51.9 |
BUFFALO |
49.7 |
OTTAWA |
50.3 |
PHILADELPHIA |
49.3 |
BOSTON |
51 |
DETROIT |
51.1 |
WASHINGTON |
51.6 |
NEW JERSEY |
49.5 |
NY RANGERS |
49.9 |
MONTREAL |
49 |
ANAHEIM |
49.8 |
PHILADELPHIA |
50.1 |
TAMPA BAY |
50.4 |
SAN JOSE |
48.4 |
VANCOUVER |
49.2 |
COLORADO |
47.8 |
PITTSBURGH |
49.1 |
MONTREAL |
49.7 |
PHILADELPHIA |
50.3 |
COLORADO |
48.1 |
NEW JERSEY |
49 |
PITTSBURGH |
46.1 |
CHICAGO |
48.1 |
PITTSBURGH |
49.3 |
NASHVILLE |
50.2 |
When we get to the semifinals of the playoffs, the lowest face-off percentage is the same as the previous round with the 2007-08 Penguins at 46.1% and the 2005-09 Colorado Avalanche and 2008-09 Chicago Blackhawks with 48.1%. What we do notice is that the teams with the lowest face-off percentages start to get eliminated from the playoffs. Teams with a face-off percentage under 50% only advanced to the next round 6 times. Although we are beginning to see a trend, I would say it is safe to say you have a slight advantage in the semifinals round of the playoffs with a higher face-off percentage.
Semifinals |
|||||||||||
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2008-09 |
2009-10 |
2010-11 |
||||||
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
EDMONTON |
53.4 |
DETROIT |
53.6 |
DETROIT |
53.3 |
DETROIT |
55.1 |
SAN JOSE |
55.6 |
VANCOUVER |
54.9 |
CAROLINA |
51.7 |
ANAHEIM |
51.8 |
DALLAS |
50.4 |
CAROLINA |
51.3 |
CHICAGO |
52.4 |
SAN JOSE |
53.7 |
ANAHEIM |
50.8 |
BUFFALO |
51.4 |
PHILADELPHIA |
49.3 |
PITTSBURGH |
49.1 |
PHILADELPHIA |
50.1 |
BOSTON |
51.9 |
BUFFALO |
49.7 |
OTTAWA |
50.3 |
PITTSBURGH |
46.1 |
CHICAGO |
48.1 |
MONTREAL |
49.7 |
TAMPA BAY |
50.4 |
The conference finals begin to paint a different picture. Out of the 6 seasons, there have only been 2 times that teams have advanced with a face-off percentage under 50%. Both of those low percentages were from the same team, the Pittsburgh Penguins, with 46.1% and 49.1% from the 2007-08 and 2008-09 seasons, respectively.
Conference Finals |
|||||||||||
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2008-09 |
2009-10 |
2010-11 |
||||||
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
EDMONTON |
53.4 |
ANAHEIM |
51.8 |
DETROIT |
53.3 |
DETROIT |
55.1 |
CHICAGO |
52.4 |
VANCOUVER |
54.9 |
CAROLINA |
51.7 |
OTTAWA |
50.3 |
PITTSBURGH |
46.1 |
PITTSBURGH |
49.1 |
PHILADELPHIA |
50.1 |
BOSTON |
51.9 |
The Stanley Cup finals chart shows that a higher face-off percentage does not mean you will win the Stanley Cup, but a percentage above 50% helps you make a deep playoff run. Other than the Pittsburgh Penguins, all teams that won the Stanley Cup were within the top 3 face-off percentages for that season.
Stanley Cup Finals |
|||||||||||
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2008-09 |
2009-10 |
2010-11 |
||||||
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
Team |
FO% |
CAROLINA |
51.7 |
ANAHEIM |
51.8 |
DETROIT |
53.3 |
PITTSBURGH |
49.1 |
CHICAGO |
52.4 |
BOSTON |
51.9 |
Obviously, there are a lot of other components that go into a Stanley Cup winning team, as proven by the Pittsburgh Penguins where they had more strengths in other areas and it helped make up for the low face-off percentage. In the end, the face-off percentage doesn't determine how a team will perform in the playoffs as there are several teams with a high face-off percentages that do not make it past the semifinals round but it does indicate that the team can have more control over the puck whether its offensive face-offs to help score goals or defensive face-offs to clear the puck out of the zone.
What are your thoughts on face-off percentages? Do you think a higher percentage will help make a deep playoff run?