A Quick Look at the Recent Production of Zach Parise, Adam Henrique, and Ilya Kovalchuk
by Matthew Ventolo on Dec 14, 2011 5:58 PM EST
in Devils Issues, Views & Analysis
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The Devils top line has been on fire the last nine games. Superstar wingers Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise are beginning to produce at the level we have been waiting for since the beginning of last season. Rookie center Adam Henrique has been put in the middle and asked to play up to their level at age 21 and has not missed a beat. The Devils have won 4 of their last 5 games, and this line has been a big reason for that. They have controlled play and scored goals in all situations as well as in a timely fashion.
This line has not been recently put together. They have been together for most of the season and it's taken a while for them to gel. Devils fans all around and some around here at In Lou We Trust have lobbied to split this line up, and I can't say I blamed them. The counterargument was keep them together for the sake of keeping the Dainius Zubrus - Patrik Elias - Petr Sykora together (the Devils best line of the season at that time). Currently, I feel these arguments may have to be put on hold - at least until Zajac has played in a few games, has got his game legs and timing down, and is completely 100% ready to play the way we know he can play. Until then - 9-14-17 - should stay together.
In their last nine games, they have tallied 12 goals, 21 assists with a shooting percentage at 13.64%. It's pretty remarkable. I have a little more after the jump, including some more stats and additional thoughts.
Here's their stat line in the last 9 games (since the second Islanders game).
| Player | G | A | Pts | +/- | PIM | PPG | Hits | Bks | PPA | SHG | SHA | SOG | TOI | Sht % |
| Adam Henrique | 3 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 20:09 | 20.00% |
| Zach Parise | 4 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 22:29 | 11.43% |
| Ilya Kovalchuk | 5 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 25:27 | 13.16% |
| Total: | 12 | 21 | 33 | -3 | 12 | 1 | 31 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 88 | ---- | 13.64% |
The 33 points in nine games averages to 3.67 points per game. Each player is averaging over a point per game. The only game neither of them scored was against Montreal. We all know Parise had the chance to tie the game late on the penalty shot attempt - but we won't hold that against him.They have 1 goal and 3 assists on the powerplay and 2 goals and 2 assists on NHL's best penalty kill. They can score at any time - no matter how many they are up against.
I find it very interesting that it's not just one player who has elevated his game while the others are just catalysts benefiting their point totals. They have relatively the same amount of goals and points. The scoring has been evenly divided and 21 assists to go alone with that suggest the forwards are passing a lot to generate chances - A huge sign of chemistry. Their 88 shots average to just under 10 shots per game. The majority of those are from Parise and Kovalchuk - which is not unexpected. Henrique has been able to score 3 goals on just 15 shots - a great shooting percentage. Henrique is shooting 14.6% this season and that will decrease over time. Parise is shooting at his career rate (11.4%) and Kovalchuk is near his (14.4%). I would not be surprised if both Number 9 and Number 17 can keep this rate up. Like I said - this is the level we expected of them. They are the Devils 1-2 punch.
As the top line - they are on the ice a lot. They each average over 20 minutes per game. Each average over a minute on both the powerplay (Kovalchuk more than Parise and he more than Henrique) and the penalty kill (Parise and Henrique more than Kovy). Some and I have wondered if this is ultimately related to the sluggish 3rd periods. Recently they have been much better - fighting to comeback against the Habs; holding a lead against Tampa; and fulfilling a comeback against Florida. This line has had a lot to do with that.
TimeOnIce.com has a great way to look at Corsi and Fenwick numbers for certain games. This link is the entire team's shooting attempt stats (at even strength excluding empty net situations) for the last 9 games. I will just concentrate on the top line (but some other numbers are interesting to say the least).
From a even strength standpoint - no player on the ice is "minus." Henrique has been on for 10 goals for and 7 against; Kovy 11 each, and Parise 11 for and 7 against. This isn't that good - and playing against other team's top competition doesn't help - but it's a better stat (conceptually and in this instance) than plus/minus.
Each player has been very good in terms of Fenwick % (shots + missed shots). This is Fenwick events for divided by total Fenwick events. Henrique is at 55.5%, Kovy at 53.0%, Parise at 56.1%. Kovy's number get decreased a bit for playing on the 4th line, which strangely doesn't get a lot of shooting attempts off. Looking through the rest of the team, they are actually second best behind the Elias line. In terms of Corsi % (Fenwick plus blocked shots), they are even better. Henrique at 58.2%, Kovy at 55.3%, Parise at 58.7%. This is slightly better than the Elias line.
Close to 60% of all shooting attempts have been by this line when they are on the ice. That's a great way to get goals and more importantly prevent them. Initially, they would get rocked in terms of even strength attempts. This was mostly due to a lack of sustained pressure in the zone. They would get into the zone - and maybe create one or two attempts. Recently - they have been able to get into the zone - get an attempt and get to that loose puck. Another reason for the increase in attempt % is patience. They are not looking to get rid of the puck and get it to the net as quick as possible. They have been holding the puck - looking around, seeing what could develop and creating chances. Dynamic players like Parise and Kovalchuk have a natural ability to find open areas and exploit them. All together - their speed, passing ability, and high shooting percentage has produced great Corsi and Fenwick %'s and even better: Goals.
So why all of a sudden? Why now? Why not before?
Well it's actually quite simple. These guys, including Henrique who has less than 30 games of NHL experience - just needed the time to get to know each other on the ice. These aren't role players that can be thrown around like the Tedenby's and Palmieri's and Zubrus' and can just "play their game."Parise and Kovlachuk have different ways of getting to open areas - they skate and handle the puck and pass the puck at different times and areas in the zone as well. They seem to know where each other is and are going now. You can't learn this in practice - it has to be games.
Overall, I'm stoked about this line getting it together and getting the goals they deserve. I want them together until they show they can't play together. I know Zajac is coming back and he will eventually be 100% and DeBoer is going have a great problem to have. For now - let's hope they keep it up. So what do you think about this line? What have you seen during games that has got either as stoked as me? (Or some things that make you worrisome?).
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While I’m stoked to see these three finally click, I feel once Zajac shakes off his rust that this line should be broken up to benefit the team even more.
I want Kovalchuk back to his natural LW where he will be even more effective and think he should be reunited with Zajac, leaving Parise with Henrique.
While it may be wishful thinking, with the emergence of three viable options at center for the first time in a longtime, I think once Zajac is back up to speed I think the Devils can start rolling out 3 potent scoring lines, much like the Sabres did in the Drury & Briere days.
I completly agree with you! It would be nice to see Kovy back on the left wing.
My top 3 lines would be:
Parise-Zajac-Henrique
Kovalchuk-Elias-Sykora
Tendenby-Zubrus-Clarkson
by kovalchuk007 on Dec 15, 2011 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
Nice write up Matt. I love watching these guys play together. It has been very enjoyable to watch and I always smile a little bigger when they put the puck in the net.
As for Zajac coming back…I guess my feelings on that will have to wait to see how well Zajac plays when he returns. I wouldn’t break up these guys until Zajac gets some of the rust off that we all know he will have. After that, well then we will just have to wait and see what would benefit the team more.
It’s taken a long time for them to develop chemistry and I have not generally been a big fan of keeping this line together. I don’t like Kovy on the right wing and I don’t think Parise’s style, which is extremely cycle-dependent, meshes well with Kovalchuk, who stays too high in the zone to effectively participate in the cycle.
But Henrique has been the glue from the beginning for this line, as he’s adaptable to either of their styles. The difference over the past 9 games has been that Parise has rediscovered his ability to impose his will on opposing defensemen and that he’s figured out were Kovy will be. Kovy, for his part, has done a better job of timing his cuts to be in good position to take a pass after Parise and Henrique have done a lot of work in the trenches.
In the long run I think this line should be broken up. In the interim, as Zajac works his way back from injury with easier minutes, the top two lines should be kept together for a few games with Tedenby and Clarkson on Zajac’s wings as a third line.
We’ll see how things shake out, but Henrique’s emergence has been a huge boost to the depth of this team. The big question mark remains the RW position, but the center position hsa turned from a weakness to a strength – 5 deep with Zajac, Henrique, Elias, Josefson, and Carter.
Like the other posts ahead of me, I agree that this line should remain together until Zajac shakes off the rust. When he does, then I would move Kovalchuk back to his natural left wing with him. Hopefully then Palmeri and Clarkson can play well as the right wings.
I would still like to keep the Zubrus-Elias-Sykora line together as they still are putting up some points and are still a shutdown line.
Patrik Elias to Left Wing
I don’t know where all this advocacy for moving Kovalchuk back to LW is coming from. The line is clicking. Passes are connecting. Pucks are going in the net. This line is dangerous and oppositions need to respect that. Meanwhile DeBoer is trying to spark his second line, the Elias-Sykora-Zubrus line, to produce at the rate they were doing so when the season began. However there’s a problem with that line. A fatal flaw, if you will.
Patrik Elias sucks at taking faceoffs. If only we had some amazing center coming off of IR who was awesome at winning faceoffs. Oh, hello there Travis Zajac and your 55% faceoff percentage from last season (and 53% the prior season). My proposal is to move Patrik back to his natural position at Left Wing and slot Travis Zajac in-between Elias and Sykora. This drops Dainius Zubrus to the third line alongside Ryan Carter and David Clarkson.
A lot of you clamoring for three scoring lines will get your wish when Jacob Josefson returns to the lineup. Having him with Zubrus and Clarkson will produce a lot more scoring than Ryan Carter will. That drops Carter to the fourth line to center Boulton and Janssen allowing us to send Sestito back to Albany with his energy.
Parise – Henrique – Kovalchuk
Elias – Zajac – Sykora
Josefson – Zubrus – Clarkson
Boulton – Carter – Janssen
Why not?
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Because Elias is so much better at center. There’s much more to playing center than taking faceoffs, and Elias is great at all of those things.
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Here are Elias’ point totals from 06-07 to now:
02-03: 57
03-04: 81
05-06: 45 (in 38 games)
06-07: 69
07-08: 55
08-09: 78
09-10: 48
10-11: 62
As you can see, his point totals are consistent in their range (in fact, for some reason, they seem to have a pattern of going higher range, lower ranger, higher range, lower range).
So why is he so much better at center?
Unless you mean “better at center than Zubrus.” But he’s not better at center than he is at left wing. He is the same. I don’t see any difference at all, except that he gets to take faceoffs, which is nothing but a bad thing.
by Dr. Witticism on Dec 15, 2011 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
Because Elias is so much better at center. There’s much more to playing center than taking faceoffs, and Elias is great at all of those things.
The possession stats demonstrate that Elias is an excellent center, but I’ve yet to see an analysis that proves he’s a better center than a LWer or vice versa for that matter. He’s an exceptional player either way, outside of the faceoff circle.
Also, when Elias and Zubrus are together I see them pretty equally sharing the duties of defending down low while the other remains high in the D zone. There are plenty of times when Elias is waiting for the breakout pass at the half boards or at the blue line. The flow of the game has forced wingers to step up their defense and take the traditional center’s role in the defensive end on occassion, but Elias and Zubrus have taken it to a whole other level, and that’s why I think that line has been so effective. I don’t think shifting Elias from C to LW will necessarily affect his game much at either end of the ice if he’s paired with a good, defensively responsible C (as all of ours are).
Also, if all the centers become healthy, there’s not a doubt in my mind that Josefson belongs at center. He’s far more comfortable there than at wing. And Henrique has shown good chemistry with both Kovalchuk and Parise, and has been good at faceoffs as well. I think shifting Elias back to wing is the way to go.
The question I’ve been pondering lately is, would Elias get enough ice time sharing the LW duties with Parise and Kovalchuk and could he be shifted to RW on the top two lines without much ill effect?
Moving Elias to the right side and allowing Kovalchuk to move back to the left is not something I had considered. However if you accept that a winger can play on either side of the ice then there’s no reason to be so anxious to split up Zach and Kovy just for the sake of moving Kovy back to the left side.
Come Say Hello! Section 231 - Row 2 - Seat 20
Elias’s shots against are down when he’s a center, CORSI is up. He played center primarily in 2007-08, 2010-11, and 2011-12.
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These things are unlikely to change if he is playing on a line with defensive specialist Travis Zajac
Come Say Hello! Section 231 - Row 2 - Seat 20
But then you’re wasting a great defensive center by putting him with another one. Why not have 2 great defensive centers on different lines?
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Because then you have two guys who can be responsible as the F1 position on the backcheck on two lines. On the top line its Henrique and Parise and on the second line its Elias and Zajac.
On the backcheck there isn’t really a Wing-Center-Wing so much as an F1-F2-F3 setup. The first forward back in the zone is responsible for covering guys down low on the rush regardless of whether or not he’s a winger or a center when you line up for the faceoff.
Come Say Hello! Section 231 - Row 2 - Seat 20
Elias’s shots against are down when he’s a center, CORSI is up.
The years in which he played LW also happen to be the years in which the Devils gave up more shots overall in the dark days when Mike Mottau was a top-4 defenseman (27.4 and 25.5 SAOFF/60 those years), as well as the years in which the ZZPops line was at its peak. Elias’ relative Corsi numbers would have looked less impressive those years regardless of whether he was at C or LW simply because that line was so dominant in terms of Corsi.
Moreover, 09-10 was an injury-shortened year for Elias, as well as the year he lost Gionta as his running mate – both were contributing factors to his un-Elias-like numbers both on the scoresheets as well as in the possession statistics. I will concede that while he played a lot with both Rolston and Zubrus in 09-10 as well as 10-11, his playing center in lieu of either of those players was a positive – but all that says to me is that Elias is a better center than either of them and shouldn’t preclude switching Elias to wing when there are other good centers on the team.
Elias is an intelligent player and will likely succeed no matter what forward position you put him in short of putting him out there with the likes of Janssen and Sestito. My concern in making line combinations isn’t “How can we get the most of of Elias?” but rather how to get the most out of Kovalchuk, who still needs to find the right fit, and Parise, who may just have taken the first third of the season to find his form, as well as making the most of the younger secondary scorers like Henrique, Clarkson, Josefson, and Tedenby. Guys like Elias, Zajac, and Zubrus will do what they do no matter who they’re put with on a line.
The years in which he played LW also happen to be the years in which the Devils gave up more shots overall in the dark days when Mike Mottau was a top-4 defenseman (27.4 and 25.5 SAOFF/60 those years), as well as the years in which the ZZPops line was at its peak. Elias’ relative Corsi numbers would have looked less impressive those years regardless of whether he was at C or LW simply because that line was so dominant in terms of Corsi.
it’s not just his Corsi Rel, it’s his Overall Corsi. He’s been better as a center, and he’s probably had worse linemates. Him being at center puts Zubrus on the wing where he is probably a better player also – Zubrus is an okay distributor of the puck, but he really excels in the corners and along the wall.
I don’t see how putting Elias on a wing makes Kovalchuk better. Kovalchuk has demonstrated that he can play LW or RW. He prefers to play LW and I think I prefer him there too, and I suspect it’s where he’ll end up when Zajac is back to 100%
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The CorsiON number is highly dependent on the players on the ice with him, and how well the team plays overall. Elias’ Corsi was fantastic in 07-08, when he was playing a lot with Brian Gionta. It has not returned to that level since then, nor do I expect it to. I would expect it to bump up from its current level if he were playing with Parise instead of with Zubrus and Sykora, though. The point is that in the macro view the evidence points to Elias being a great player, but with all the changes the team went through over the past 4+ seasons, the evidence isn’t there to parse out the effect of moving from C to LW and back from the other changes on the team.
To illustrate the team’s overall down play in 08-09 and 09-10 in terms of Corsi, compare Elias’ numbers with Parise’s (who stayed at LW with roughly the exact same linemates) – from 07-08 to 08-09 Parise’s Corsi took a modest step forward from 14.4 to 16.6 even though his development took a giant leap forward from being a 30g-30a guy to a truly dominant forward in the league. In 09-10 Parise’s Corsi dropped to 10.3 though I’d argue he as an individual was still dominant – the team around him just wasn’t much of a help. The team had a terrible corps of defensemen, and that affected everyone’s numbers those years.
Also, I’m not trying to say that putting Elias on a wing will make Kovalchuk, or any other specific player, better. The point was that rather than worrying about where Elias fits best, the starting point for constructing lines starts with finding good fits for Kovalchuk, Parise, and the young guys. In my mind, Elias, Zajac, and Zubrus can be shifted around the top-9 to accommodate the others, and pertinently to this discussion, Elias can be switched from C to LW (or even to RW if need be). All this is irrelevant until Josefson comes back from injury and there are no further injuries at center, but if Henrique and Josefson are much better at C than at LW (which I think has been established for Josefson more so than Henrique), then you really have no choice but to think about switching Elias to wing.
Henrique will not last as a center in this league. He will end up as a wing. Elias has a better center’s mindset than Henrique.
My point is that Elias should not be shifted. There’s not much that can demonstrate that, but he’s playing excellently at center despite having lost a half-step over these last few years.
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Henrique has stepped up to the challenge of playing top line center between two star wingers in pretty effortless fashion – it’s clear he’s not just going to be an NHL 3rd liner as we thought and we need to revise our expectations. While there are definitely aspects of playing in the middle he needs to polish and a few extra pounds he could stand to put on, I think there’s a decent chance he could be a center in the long run.
It’s true – he might be a 2nd line wing. I don’t see much of a reason to revise our expectations. He doesn’t play good defense 5 on 5 and he’s not a great passer, despite the assists he’s piled up. He’s an excellent offensive player though – we’ll see. It takes me more than 25 games to revise expectations.
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You are forgetting about Tedenby?
So do you not even consider him to be a viable player when he has proven that he is one? Would you really play both Janssen and Boulton over him?!?
I hope that you are just forgetting to put him in there.
I agree Elias is not good at faceoffs. Yet, he’s been by and large very good at center. He takes on tough competition, he usually wins against said competition, and he’s been productive. I wouldn’t move him unless the Devils suddenly get a surplus of centers. I also wouldn’t move Zubrus back to center for similar reasons, he’ s been quite good on the wing.
So do you not even consider him to be a viable player when he has proven that he is one?
When he has proven he is viable.
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by John Fischer on Dec 14, 2011 11:52 PM EST up reply actions
Well he is compared to Jansen and Bolton. Surely you’re not suggesting that Jansen and Bolton are better than Tedenby…?
by Dr. Witticism on Dec 15, 2011 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
Zajac coming back
Why break up a line that is producing?
I think that Zajac will eventually be back with Kovy and Parise but is there any reason to split them up with Zajac coming back (I know you agree with me on this point).
Also, no point to put Zajac in a bad situation coming back from injury with having to play 15-20 minutes a game off the bat.
In my opinion, top 3 lines should be
Parise – Henrique – Kovy
Elias – Zajac – Sykora
Teddy – Zubrus – Clarkson
As many have said, keep them together till Zajac shakes off rust. After that, I want;
Parise-Henrique-Clarkie
Kovy-Zajac-Teddy
Zubrus-Elias-Sykora
Boulton-Carter-Sharky (or Palms)
with Boulton/Janssen switching out as needed. Clarkie I feel fits in better with the cycling style Parise has, while Teddy would benefit from Kovy’s off-the-rush style as he can keep up with him (if only he was out of DB’s doughouse…). The Elias line has been one of the more consistent as well.
This could end with the Devils having 3 lines that can score at any moment. An opposing team can potentially cover 2 of them, but going against 3 will be tough for any team.
No matter how good Zajac is defensively, he couldn’t possibly make up for how poor Tedenby’s defensive play is and how mediocre Kovalchuk’s play is. This line would be atrocious.
Come Say Hello! Section 231 - Row 2 - Seat 20
No matter how good Zajac is defensively, he couldn’t possibly make up for how poor Tedenby’s defensive play is and how mediocre Kovalchuk’s play is. This line would be atrocious.
Zajac couldn’t make make up for how mediocre Kovy’s play is ?
Well, last time I remember Zajac and Kovy were already on the same with Palmieri for a few games last season, not sure any sane person would believe they were atrocious.
So Palmieri deserved a lot of credit for the counterbalance I guess
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Dec 15, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
Tedenby’s defensive play is poor AND he’d be on his off-wing. A recipe for disaster.
The Kovalchuk line (or at least Kovalchuk himself) were exactly even 5 on 5 from when Lemaire was hired. Even in shots, even in goals for and against.
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I never questioned Tedenby’s defensive play, he’s a real liability, I don’t want to see Tedenby and Kovy on the same line neither. Too, I meant Palmieri is not Steve Nash yet.
On the other hand, it’s just risible that someone implies being even could somehow equal to a mediocre play.
I’ve been stroken, That was pure trolling.
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Dec 15, 2011 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
I’ve been stroken stricken.
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Dec 15, 2011 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
This line would be atrocious.
Where’s your proof? I don’t see any. I’m making suggestions not calling the shots. I’d just want DeBoer to try it. You have teams running pure offensive lines that outscore their opponent just by keeping the puck in the offensive end. In addition, you’re forcing the opposition to split up their defensive coverage between 3 lines that could theoretically score.
And for back checking, the centre is the most important player. Not to say the wings aren’t, but not nearly as much so.
How Kovalchuk is a -6 playing on this line is mind boggling.
And Kovalchuk speeds away, great moves, busting through, DID YOU SEE THAT?
Its cause he’s double shifting with the fourth liners
by devilstuckinkansas on Dec 14, 2011 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
it’s not necessarily only when he was on this line, he was minus -7 on 3 consecutive games during last road trip debacle :
-4 @ COL (6-1)
-1 @ MIN (4-2)
-2 @ WPG (4-2)
I wouldn’t be surprised if he was on the ice for almost each goal scored GF or GAA… And seeing that he gets a load of TOI, that he made some costly mistakes, that he wasn’t that great defensively and not very lucky neither…You’ve got this: A disgusting statistic.
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Dec 14, 2011 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
Being a minus really doesn’t say much: it just means your on the ice for a goal against. Last night against Florida, Tedenby got wrecked along with the fourth line on a shift that led to Versteeg’s first goal of the game. Tedenby came off and Sykora came on the ice just as Larsson gave away the puck. Sykora’s punished with the minus, even though Tedenby’s non-actions played a role on the shift that led to the goal.
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by John Fischer on Dec 14, 2011 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
I think it says a llot. No, one game doesn’t say a much, but +/- over the course of a large sample size does. While you can just get unlucky in one or two games and end up with a bad +/-, you can’t end up with a +/- that is dead last on the team without doing something very wrong.
by Dr. Witticism on Dec 15, 2011 12:06 AM EST up reply actions
No, one game doesn’t say a much, but +/- over the course of a large sample size does.
And a large sample size is exactly how much? Do you think 82 games is large enough? Moreover, goals against are significant enough events to warrant breakdowns. Just because a player is on the ice for more goals against than for doesn’t necessarily mean he’s responsible. It might be worth looking into, sure; but it’s not reason enough to make an assumption. Especially since such events can be caused just by being on the ice, not necessarily involved in what happened on the goal. It unfairly punishes or rewards players.
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by John Fischer on Dec 15, 2011 12:11 AM EST up reply actions
I think 28 games is a large enough sample size, especially when you have the rest of the team to which you can compare a player, so obviously I think 82 is as well.
+/- on its own is not a great metric of a player’s defensive capability (or perhaps i should say “liability”), but how it compares to the rest of his team is.
by Dr. Witticism on Dec 15, 2011 12:17 AM EST up reply actions
82 games isn’t enough, so 28 games is definitely well short.
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Because there’s a lot of luck in hockey, and +/- does a poor job of capturing that. It’s very easy for a player to be +10 or -10 through 28 games when by shots on goal measures they should be even.
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I think +/- is very circumstantial and only useful in extremes. For example, Eric Staal having a -19 rating only 25 games into the season is an extreme number, and indicative of how poor he is playing. Nick Lidstrom having a +400 rating over 20 seasons is an extreme number and indicative of the kind of career he has had.
Come Say Hello! Section 231 - Row 2 - Seat 20
Over 20 years, sure, it’s indicative of the kind of career a player has had (although Lidstrom has also had dynamite teammates to play with pretty much every year), but with E. Staal? He’s -15 at 5 on 5 despite his team only being outshot by 31 when he’s on the ice. That’s chance. Whether it’s Staal playing bad or the puck bouncing bad for him and his linemates, either he or the puck should snap out of it sooner than later.
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I don’t know how this would actually work out, but I kind of really like the idea of Elias centering Kovy. The two of them seem to get paired together in 4-on-4 situations in OT so maybe there is something there that the coaches see too. I just really love Elias’s offensive awareness and passing to complement Kovy’s bomb of a shot. I really like that the line is working out right now, so here’s what I think they’ll do immediately:
Instead of breaking up the top line, I think the coaches will move Elias to a wing position. Except for maybe his first couple games back, theres no reason Zaj or Elias should be on the bottom two lines. For this reason, I think Elias will end up on the wing with Zajac and Sykora. I think DeBoer likes the idea of having a big third line that can possess the puck so I think he’ll move Zubrus down instead of Sykora once Zajac is ready to step into 2nd line center duties.
After a few games for Zajac to get back into the game, assuming the 9/14/17 line is still going strong, I think it will be something like this:
9-14-17
26-19-15
8-20-23
22-18-25/12
If the first line loses some of its punch (blasphemy, I know), I think the following could be a nice lineup:
9-19-14
17-26-15
8-20-23
22-18-25/12
I think that first line has really good gritty players that all have some scoring ability, and 19 and 9 have proven to be successful in the past.
On the second line, I think Elias and Kovy could be really good. It gets Kovy back on his natural side and Elias has shown he can still pass and shoot well. The Sykora part can be shuffled around depending on streaks, really Zubrus should probably go here, but I don’t really love putting Sykora on the third line with Clarkie and Carter… it just seems like they won’t do anything. At this point I realize I’m mostly rambling so I’m just going to hit “post” haha.
It’s not necessarily a bad news to give Zajac the 3rd line, until Josefson comes back at least. We need 3 scoring lines if we want to get consistent results anyways.
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Dec 14, 2011 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
Post-Zajac
I’m not sure why people want to a) break up one of the hottest lines in the NHL, and b) keep Sykora on the second line. I think the best option is moving Elias back to LW, as a bunch of you have said, but put Zubrus on the right side with Travis in the middle. Sykora isn’t performing like a second liner now that the Elias line has cooled off a little, Zubrus has a team best 19.6% shooting percentage vs. Sykora’s 7.7%. I don’t know about you, but I’d love to see Zajac between Elias’ 14.1% and Zube’s 19.6%.
Go Devils
Go Jets
Agree completely
while the Sykora, Elias magic has seemed to be picking up recently, I’d rather ditch him down to the third line and partner him with clarkson and possibly tedenby. Although that line would be a big defensive liability, if it could avoid other teams #1 line, it could definitely score some goals and provide depth to this team.
by SantonioBurress on Dec 14, 2011 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
A no brainer, I wouldn’t break the Parise line neither Elias’. Travis on the 3rd line is a good start if you ask me.
Then, I would be ready to wait until Josefson’s return to see Kovy back to his natural position, no matter what.
Because there’s 5 important things in my opinion:
- Henrique, Elias, Josefson or Zajac, someone will have to move out of center position.
- Josefson is a natural center and a lame winger
- Elias’ worked hard to change his game and he’s doing so fine as a center , that would be a crime to move him back to the wing.
- With his speed, his scoring skills and particularly his puck handling abilities*, Henrique could be playing the RW. * Kid shoots left
- A blatant lack of scoring depth
So for me, we’ve got our 3 centers already, Elias, Zajac and Josefson, just split our best guys over those lines, 3 first lines, just give Josefson’s line the softest opposition, but overall, with 3 first lines, that’s how you win games nowadays.
My 2 cents:
Parise-Zajac-Henrique
Zubrus-Elias-Sykora
Kovy-Josefson-Clarkson
Tedenby-Carter-Palmieri
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Dec 14, 2011 10:29 PM EST reply actions
I don’t see why it would be a crime to move Elias back to left wing. His point totals have all fallen within a pretty consistent range basically throughout his entire career (with 99-00, 00-01, 03-04 being the significantly higher points in his career), so I don’t think we can say that Elias has been better at center than at left wing. If he would still produce at the same right, what’s the crime? What would we be losing? I mean, besides one of the worst faceoff guys in the league.
So, if his lack of faceoff prowess is the only thing we “lose” (well, gain) by moving Elias back to wing, that’s great because Henrique is way, way, way better at taking faceoffs.
An even better reason to move Elias and leave Henrique: we know for a fact that Elias can play at the same level on the wing. We don’t know that about Henrique. All we do know about him is that he has been freaking amazing and he has only been playing center (yes, I know he has played RW in the AHL before, but what’s most relevant is that his fantastic NHL play has been at center).
by Dr. Witticism on Dec 15, 2011 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
Elias has aged – what’s the use of comparing his point totals from season to season?
Elias is a center. Faceoffs are a tiny piece of what makes centers good. Elias’s line, again, is the best top line at suppressing shots on goal in the league. Again. What would compel someone to move him out of that role? He’s probably the best playmaker on the team – maybe Kovalchuk is better – but he’s a phenomenal defensive player and belongs at a position where he can influence the play most, and that’s going to be at center.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
It’s useful when his point totals continue to reflect his totals throughout his career. How is the fact that he is older relevant if he is clearly still playing at the same level? The only time you should say that we shouldn’t be comparing stats because of age is when it is clear that age has affected stats. Do you have any evidence whatsoever of this? I don’t see any. If he scores between 50 and 70 points every season for the next four seasons, will you still claim at the fifth season that we shouldn’t be comparing his stats, despite the fact that they clearly fall exactly within his normal range? If he’s playing like the normal Elias, it doesn’t matter if he’s 20 or 40.
I also don’t see how moving him to wing will make him worse at shutting the other team down, especially if you put him with another of our best defensive forwards on the team in Zajac. He can still make plays from the wing, as evidenced by his totals before he played center.
by Dr. Witticism on Dec 15, 2011 12:35 AM EST up reply actions
Because I don’t think it’s clear that he’s playing at the same level. I don’t think he’s the same player. And I don’t think point totals are that relevant anyway.
Centers have more of an impact on the game than wingers, that’s something that’s pretty much a hockey truism.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
I don’t see why it would be a crime to move Elias back to left wing.
Perhaps
because he was a veteran who busted his ass to learn a new position
because he’s finally comfortable,
because he’s one of the best 2-way center in the league now,
because as a center Elias still managed to lead the team in points scored
because he’s clearly stated he doesn’t want to play on the wing anymore,
because we’ve got already Parise and Kovy as true LWers and the Russian is “forced” to play out of position already.
I see plenty of reasons why Elias should not be moved back to LW, but I don’t say he’s not a versatile player.
For Henrique, his skillset is screaming to move him on the wing, IF he’s really talented, at only 21, he wouldn’ have any problem to learn to play on the wing. To switch from Center to Wing is supposed to be easier than the opposite.
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Dec 15, 2011 12:33 AM EST up reply actions
Oh I’m not necessarily saying we should or must move him to the left; I just don’t see why there’s such a resistance to the very concept of it.
So he’s comfortable. If he is comfortable on the left as well, then it’s ok for him to play there too. It’s ok for him to play any place that he is comfortable as long as he continues to play the same quality.
If you move him to the wing, he goes from one of the best two-way centers in the game now to one of the best two-way left wings in the game now, so either way he’s just one of the best two-way forwards.
He has managed to lead the team in points at both left wing and center. Again, a wash.
I haven’t seen any interviews where he said he doesn’t want to play wing anymore, but I am interested to read them. Obviously that would make moving him there less attractive.
Finally, I agree with you that he shouldn’t be moved there if the Parise-Henrique-Kovalchuk line starts to fizzle. However, if they keep playing the way they have been lately, there’s no reason to move Kovalchuk to another line just so he can play left wing.
by Dr. Witticism on Dec 15, 2011 12:40 AM EST up reply actions
Elias said in an interview with Chere that he would prefer to play center – that he’d go back to wing, but he would prefer not to.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
I found the interview: http://www.nj.com/devils/index.ssf/2011/11/devils_pete_deboer_wont_break.html
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
Well then, if he’s as effective at both positions, let him do what he wants (so long as it fits for the team, which it currently can).
For me, that’s the one and only legitimate reason.
by Dr. Witticism on Dec 15, 2011 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
If you move him to the wing, he goes from one of the best two-way centers in the game now to one of the best two-way left wings in the game now, so either way he’s just one of the best two-way forwards.
like Triumph said, centers have more of an impact on the game than wingers. A 2-way forward is one thing, but a 2-way center is just the cream of the crop because they’ve to work on crucial zones at both ends. If Elias wasn’t such a great 2-way center, I think that would’ve made a long time that Sykora would’ve been a 4th liner.
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Dec 15, 2011 1:50 AM EST up reply actions
Three things:
1. I would try moving Josefson to a wing before moving Henrique there. It’s not so much that I don’t want to break up the Parise-Henrique-Kovalchuk line, but rather that I don’t want to mess with a good — nay, amazing — thing. Henrique has been an absolute revelation and, since being called up this year, could be argued for as the best Devils player this season. He never seems to have a truly bad night, and most nights he’s great, and that in itself is quite rare in a player. He’s also the perfect example of how some guys simply fit better in the NHL than the AHL. I’ve read interviews with many players who were unspectacular in the AHL, only to be called up and blow everyone away for the rest of their career (I’m not saying Henrique will keep this up forever, but there are lots of guys who have done that). Sometimes players, and especially highly skilled ones, just play better in the faster league and with tougher competition. Of course, the better your teammates, the more they will complement your skills.
2. Once Zajac is back, and especially once Josefson returns, I don’t see why all three of our lines can’t get equal ice time if they’re properly constructed and then kept together. Or maybe it would be more accurate to say we would have one 1st line and two 2nd lines, but you get my point.
First, I’m going to give a couple of scenarios that would offer us two clear top lines with one slightly lesser third line. Scenario 1:.
Parise-Henrique-Kovalchuk
Elias-Zajac-Zubrus
Tedenby/Sykora-Josefson-Clarkson
(note: I put Tedenby/Sykora on the third line in case Sykora can’t play well on left wing, but if he can’t Tedenby will have to step it up or I will have to switch these up again. Or maybe Zubrus could play left on that third line, with Sykora on right and Clarkson moving up to the second line. That would give us more of that three almost-equal lines scenario)
Scenario 2:
Parise-Zajac-Zubrus
Kovalchuk-Elias-Henrique
Tedenby/Sykora-Josefson-Clarkson
I personally would go with scenario 1 at the moment. If/when the Parise-Henrique-Kovalchuk line fizzles out, I like scenario 2 better because it allows Kovalchuk to move back to his natural position and still keeps him with Henrique (who I think complements him very well). However, I understand the desire to keep the Parise-Henrique-Kovalchuk line together. If their hot streak fizzles out, I would go with scenario 2.
Now, that’s the way I would do it if Deboer wants there to be only two very clear top lines and a third, lesser line. However, if he so desires, he can switch things around a bit to have three almost equal lines. It would be something like this:
Parise-Zajac-Zubrus
Kovalchuk-Henrique-Clarkson/Sykora
Elias-Josefson-Sykora/Clarkson
4th line
(or the suggestion I made in parentheses above. Or many other ideas others have proposed. Who knows?)
Oh and in that third scenario, Elias can center if Josefson is capable of playing on the left.
by Dr. Witticism on Dec 14, 2011 11:54 PM EST up reply actions
This is well done, Matt. Thanks. My only quibble is with the reasoning regarding why it’s now producing. Part of it may have to do with the threesome understanding each other; but I think they’re also getting some luck their way as a unit. At first, the team got rocked in possession. Eventually, they got better there but the production wasn’t. That’s on the line getting better together. Yet, the opportunities to score in the big picture has come off some breaks their way and they succeeded at those opportunities; hence, more points.
This line has been great so far and I wouldn’t touch them unless someone’s hurt or they get cold. When it does, I want Henrique moved down to play (and hopefully beat) weaker competition than he’s been seeing.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
Send Teddy to Albany
He has the skills to play on a top line, but is weak defensively. I was all for putting him on RW across from Kovy or Zach, but PDB isn’t going to do that. So instead, send him to Albany with instructions to drill the Devils’ defensive system into his head. Yell at him until he gets it, but keep playing him no matter what. Make sure he understands that the demotion is remedial, not an indication of the organization’s lack of faith in him. Who knows? It might work.
I definitely agree with the prospect of giving Teddy more icetime, even if it means in Albany. I think he should play up with the NHL, maybe in a third line role with Clarkson and Zajac, until Zajac shakes the rust off. I don’t agree with him staying up with the Devils and getting >5 minutes of ice time a game. Not the best way to have a skilled player learn through mistakes.
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