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Game 25 Preview: New Jersey Devils at Winnipeg Jets

The Time: 7:00 PM EDT

The Broadcast: TV - MSG PLUS, CBC; Radio - 660 AM WFAN

The Matchup: The New Jersey Devils (12-10-1) at the Winnipeg Jets (10-11-4)

The Last Devils - Jets Games: A very exciting game at the Rock four weeks ago if I remember correctly. After a scoreless first period and a goaltending battle brewing, the Devils jumped to a 2-0 lead with odd man rush goals by Patrik Elias (a 2-on-1) and Adam Henrique (breakaway 1.0). Mark Flood made it interesting scoring early in the 3rd period and Jim Slater tied it up with 2:45 remaining in regulation even though Anton Volchenkov was ripped down (no call) right before the goal. Classic 3rd period Devils in retrospect. After an event-less Devils powerplay (classic Devils once again) that carried over into overtime, Zach Parise fed Adam Henrique for his second goal of the game for breakaway 2.0. Here's John's recap of the 3-2 Overtime Devils win.

The Last Devils Game: I wrote the preview before the Devils - Wild game and I will update it.

The Last Jets Game: The new Winnipeg Jets played the old Winnipeg Jets at MTS Centre Thursday night. Bryan Little scored the only goal of the game in the first period and with the help of some magic pucks, Ondrej Pavelec got the shutout. The Jets beat the Phoenix Coyotes 1-0. Bettman's Nightmare has the recap for Arctic Ice Hockey.

The Goal: The goal obviously is to win - but more importantly - win with a solid 60-minute effort. They played a game last night yet the Devils record for the second half of back-to-back games isn't that bad (3-2-0). The Jets will have a full day of rest. They can't be sluggish; they can't start slow, becuase they will fall behind quickly. The Jets have a knack for scoring (and/or letting up goals) early in the game. If the Devils start off fast with a strong forecheck and solid defense, they may be the team to jump out ahead. Thus a 60 minute effort to avoid any comebacks (like the last time these teams played) is ideal.

I have a little more after the jump.

Star-divide

After the Jets lost to the Devils in the beginning of November, they lost four more games in a row. Since then, they are 5-2-1.They are pushing to get back to 0.500. The Devils are avoiding getting pushed to 0.500. Both teams are close in points (Devils with a few more, and a game in hand) yet Winnipeg has the tied breaker for ROW. Yes it's early to start talking about the playoff picture, but it's something to put into considering when you're playing teams in your conference.

They put up 28 goals in that 8-game span while only letting up 22. Yes they only put up one goal and didn't let up any in their last game but these are some high scoring games. They rank 11th in goal forced per game yet 25th in goals against per game. The Devils have been good in shootouts, but not really in these type of shootouts. They either have to start playing better defense to eliminate a high scoring game or their offense has to start putting up goals again to compete in a high scoring effort.

In terms of Fenwick percentage at 5-on-5, the Jets aren't nearly as bad as the Wild when tied; they have a 48.62%. The Devils are at 50.51% (not counting last night's game). The Jets are right above the 50% mark and right above the Devils in "close" situations. They score and give up roughly the same amount at 5-on-5 as well (2.7 per 60). They average over 30 shots per 60 and give up 29.5 shots per 60. Their opposition save percentage is 0.914 (so they shoot 8.6%) and their save percentage is 0.908 at 5-on-5.

If I were the Devils - I would try to get as many shots on net. Too many times in the game against the Avalanche did they hit shins and skates and bodies. If they see an open shot on net - take it.

Courtesy of Left Wing Lock - we can see the most used Jets lines for the past three games. Their line up is a little top heavy with some injuries they have sustained. Their top line is no secret though - Blake Wheeler, Evander Kane, and Bryan Little.

Player GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG SOG PCT
Evander Kane 24 12 7 19 2 23 3 0 2 93 12.90%
Bryan Little 25 7 7 14 0 8 2 0 1 56 12.50%
Blake Wheeler 25 2 12 14 6 16 1 0 0 58 3.45%

Here's their second line:

Player GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG SOG PCT
Kyle Wellwood 25 7 10 17 -1 2 2 0 0 32 21.88%
Andrew Ladd 25 8 5 13 -3 19 1 0 3 76 10.53%
Alexander Burmistrov 25 5 8 13 3 16 1 0 0 47 10.64%

In the Jets last game - they matched power for power with their top lines going up Phoenix's top lines. I would expect them to do this against New Jersey as well. I would love for Zach Parise and Ilya Kovalchuk to begin racking up points and goals. But I think this game has a good opportunity for the Devils third line to get some goals. Clarkson has calmed down recently and Tedenby has yet to net a goal. Tonight gives them a chance to change that.

Though Dustin Byfuglien takes a lot of shots - he's been giving up a lot of pucks on turnovers. I would like the Devils to take advantage of this and when he's on the ice, have the forwards forecheck deep. It may lead to a golden turnover and some chances and hopefully a goal or two.

Since Marty got the nod last night, Johan Hedberg aka Mooooose will start tonight. DeBoer has stated many times he will split the starts during back-to-backs. He shut out the Islanders in his last game. He'll be fine if he stays in the net.

A little history: This will be the first time the Devils see MTS Centre and downtown Winnipeg since December 19th, 1995. The Devils lost that game 5-3 thanks to Keith Tkachuk and Teemu Selanne. Two current Devils actually played in the game. Martin Brodeur stopped 33 of 37 shots and Petr Sykora netted two goals and an assist. So there's that...

That's my preview on the game. What's your take on the tonight's game? What are looking forward to? Let us know in the comments. Thanks for reading.

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Let’s just hope Byfuglien and Kovalchuk don’t get into a turnover battle in the neutral zone or it could rip a hole in the space time continuum and destroy the world.

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 8:01 AM EST reply actions  

healthy scratch

maybe kovy will be a healthy scratch and we’ll have a chance to win? Call me what you wanna call me, the stats speak for themselves….

by poros all star on Dec 3, 2011 10:35 AM EST reply actions  

Which stats are those?

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions  

The confirmation bias stats that he’s got handy, obviously.

by Marty 4 Prez on Dec 3, 2011 11:28 AM EST up reply actions  

Makes sense. I was half-expecting some I wasn’t previously aware of like:

  • turnovers at inopportune times (TIT)
  • circling the net without a shot (ONoS!)
  • bad losses attributable measurement (BLAMe)

Or everyone’s favorite: total contract amount / goals scored so far this season

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

excellent, elesias.

"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit." -Aristotle

by Tim G on Dec 3, 2011 5:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks. I worked hard on those.

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 5:50 PM EST up reply actions  

you just destroyed all the momentum,

flagged for practical of good manners

"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"

by Elektrostal_Kid on Dec 3, 2011 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

maybe kovy will be a healthy scratch and we’ll have a chance to win?

Yes, because Rod Pelley gives this team more of a chance to win.

Call me what you wanna call me

John told me I’m not allowed to use that kind of language on this blogsite.

….

How about scratching some of the players who are equally responsible for giving up opportunities and goals the other way who aren’t contributing to the offense? How about scratching some of the guys who are just occupying space in the lineup and doing nothing with it, putting Kovalchuk in the mindset that he has to try and do so much more on his own?

I get it. You’re unhappy with the excessive number of turnovers. I don’t like them either, but I see many of them happening off of bad breaks he can’t be held accountable for (bouncing pucks, Zach Parise tripping him up in the neutral zone). Some of them are stupid blunders — the pass at the end of the second period last night was a prime example — but some of them don’t fall on him even if you treat him as a blame sponge.

I get it. You’d like to see Ilya Kovalchuk’s TOI ratcheted down from 26 minutes a night to something more sustainable and him taken off the PK. I actually agree with you there. I’d like to see a third line and a fourth line that is capable of doing something positive enough that Peter the Bored will put them out for a regular shift instead of benching them or double-shifting Kovalchuk with players who can’t contribute offensively against an AHL team. I’d like to see Kovalchuk off the PK altogether unless it’s a third-period situation with the Devils down a goal or two (when more offense is called for). But I’d also like to see some of the other forwards have their ice time reduced — Zubrus and Parise and Elias are all logging considerably more minutes than their career averages.

Keep in mind, this is the kind of player Ilya Kovalchuk has been all his life. Part of why he has been so prolific offensively is because he’s gotten that extra ice time and because he takes some risks to make plays. If you try and force him into a “safe little Devils box”, will you destroy what has made him wonderful and successful at the same time? Will you be left with a forward that has some people typing text walls about “how Ilya Kovalchuk is an overpaid, mediocre forward who we need to get rid of NOW”?

by acasser on Dec 3, 2011 11:49 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Keep in mind, this is the kind of player Ilya Kovalchuk has been all his life

Except for, you know, the part about scoring goals. You can call him “high risk, high reward” all you want, but my question is: where’s the reward?

Under Lemaire during the second half last year, Kovy wasn’t making these mistakes on a nightly basis, and we finally saw him score prolifically while wearing a Devils jersey.

Ask yourself, what has changed from the second half of last season to this one? I think the answer is a coach who held him accountable was replaced by one who doesn’t.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions  

To be fair, Lemaire didn’t have to do much to get Kovy to perform. Was that because of Lemaire’s attitude towards Kovy, or Kovy’s attitude towards Lemaire? I doubt we’ll ever really know. What we do know is Lemaire is not coming back, so we all need to get over it.

by SonicJoe on Dec 3, 2011 12:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

To be fair, Lemaire didn’t have to do much to get Kovy to perform.

How do you know? What we know is:

1st half, Kovy struggled like everyone else. After Lemaire took over, he was excellent.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t recall Lemaire benching Kovy or calling him out in the media. Maybe behind closed doors Lemaire rode Kovy hard, but maybe Pete’s doing the same thing, so your whole argument falls apart if that’s what you’re getting at.

by SonicJoe on Dec 3, 2011 1:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Maybe behind closed doors Lemaire rode Kovy hard, but maybe Pete’s doing the same thing, so your whole argument falls apart if that’s what you’re getting at.

The difference is that last year Kovy turned around almost immediately after Lemaire took over. This year, it’s been 25 games under PDB. Nothing.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 1:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Let’s see if that’s true or not.

Under MacLean, who was the coach from October 8 through December 23, Kovalchuk scored 8 goals, 10 assists, and took 95 shots. He shot at 8.4%.

Under Lemaire, he scored 23 goals, had 19 assists, and 150 shots on goal. He shot at 15.3%

Given that Kovalchuk has never finished a season below 12% in shooting percentage; it would be doubtful he would remain shooting below 10% regardless who was coaching.

Was the turnaround immediate? Per his game log, not really. Under Lemaire’s first 8 games, Kovalchuk scored only 2 goals, picked up 1 assists, and took 19 shots. I don’t know about you, but that doesn’t ring to me that he immediately got better. He slumped for a bit before the middle of the month. Moreover, Kovalchuk really got hot in February when he only had one game where he didn’t get a point, more than a month after Lemaire got behind the bench.

Yes, the team as a whole played better under Lemaire. It wasn’t an immediate turnaround, though.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Dec 3, 2011 2:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Kovy did not turn around immediately, and even if he had there would be know way to tell if it was because Lemaire got him to play better or because the team around him was playing better. And so many pieces have changed this year irs hard to tell whether its the coach or something else. Would Lemaire coach better? Yes but he’s not an option, so its a moot point.

by SonicJoe on Dec 3, 2011 2:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Ok, let’s dispel rumors by looking at the actual stats again.

First 8 games, Kovy scored 2 goals 1 assist. You say he didn’t immediately turn around?

That’s a higher average of goals per game than he had under 33 games with MacLean. And it was only the first 8 games. Those first 8 were his worst under Lemaire. He DOMINATED after that.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Three points in 8 games as the featured offensive weapon. That’s a turnaround?

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 2:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Look at the stats yourself. Hint: They don’t lie. Kovy’s average after only 8 games under Lemaire was already better than 33 under MacLean. And how could we expect Kovy to immediate learn/adhere to Lemaire’s philosophies? That makes it even more impressive.

By the end of the year:

During-MacLean: 8g 10a (33 games)
After-MacLean: 23g, 19a (48 games)

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 2:29 PM EST up reply actions  

They don’t lie. Kovy’s average after only 8 games under Lemaire was already better than 33 under MacLean.

Only slightly.

2/8 = .25
8/33 = .2424

And how could we expect Kovy to immediate learn/adhere to Lemaire’s philosophies?

Because he’s an adult hockey player who wants to succeed and so has every reason to cooperate with others to do just that. You’d have to have a really low opinion of Kovalchuk or have bought into a narrative that isn’t true to believe otherwise.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Dec 3, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

John, nobody is going to be able to learn/adjust to a new coach’s system right off the bat. That’s what I was getting at.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 6:38 PM EST up reply actions  

And yet he still performed better right away under Lemaire than he did MacLean.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 6:39 PM EST up reply actions  

No not right away, just like the team, it took him 8 games

And Kovalchuk speeds away, great moves, busting through, DID YOU SEE THAT?

by KovyisLove on Dec 3, 2011 6:43 PM EST up reply actions  

We know mostly because it was highly improbable that he and the rest of the team would be able to sustain such epic suckitude forever and that whomever took over would likely benefit from that.

Not to say Lemaire didn’t have an impact, he almost certainly did, but it can’t be overlooked that my dog probably could have had a positive impact on that MacLean coached team.

There are lots of potential reasons to help explain why Kovalchuk went all Altered Beast in the second half—and the optimal word here is reasons because it’s almost certainly not attributable to any one individual factor.

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions  

We know mostly because it was highly improbable that he and the rest of the team would be able to sustain such epic suckitude forever and that whomever took over would likely benefit from that.

That’s laughable. Nobody on here was saying last year that the team was “bound to turnaround eventually”. And suggesting that

whomever took over would likely benefit from that.
is a big insult to what Lemaire accomplished last year.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Selective memory. Unsustainably low shooting percentages, et al, were constant topics of discussion and the phrase “regression to the mean” was bandied about with frequent regularity.

a big insult to what Lemaire accomplished last year.

It’s not an insult, it’s a realistic interpretation of events. I have great respect for the man and what he did. The problem isn’t that I’m belittling it, but, as I’m attempting to explain to you, that you’re exaggerating it.

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Not a realistic interpretation of events at all. The Devils showed absolutely NO sign of turning around before Lemaire. It’s like saying nuking Hiroshima didn’t factor into WW2.

I’m not exaggerating anything, you’re doing the complete opposite.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 2:16 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s not anything like that at all! And that’s a terrible analogy, in just about every way possible.

The team needed better leadership, which they got with Lemaire. They also benefited from getting some bounces, turning their luck around, regressing to the mean—whichever cliche one prefers—and it remains to be seen, despite your claims, just how much of that was due solely to Lemaire.

He had an effect, of that there is no doubt, and it’s not a coincidence that the team improved after he took over, but with how poorly MacLean was running the team just about any coach could have come in and gotten better results by virtue of having an actual system in place, making in-game adjustments and not configuring lines by drawing names from a hat.

It’s not an insult to Lemaire to point that out. If anything, it’s an insult to MacLean and praise of Lemaire for being one of those coaches.

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

just about any coach could have come in and gotten better results by virtue of having an actual system in place, making in-game adjustments and not configuring lines by drawing names from a hat.

How convenient of you to just say this without any basis…

I’m coming to logical conclusions based on what actually occurred, and you’re playing Dr. Seuss again.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s a simple logical conclusion:

We know the best coaches are not only good with the players but also good with the Xs and Os.

MacLean was apparently good with neither, therefore, it stands to reason that just about any coach could have come in and gotten better results.

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 7:14 PM EST up reply actions  

The team was hungry to bounce back, that’s a typical sportsmen reaction. They bought 200% into Lemaire’s system.

whomever Any good coach took over would likely benefit from that.

So, from the results under Jacquot, to me that just means when you listen very carefully someone like Lemaire, you’re awesome.

Indeed, Lemaire was awesome.

"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"

by Elektrostal_Kid on Dec 3, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

1st half, Kovy struggled like everyone else. After Lemaire took over, he was excellent.

Let’s look some splits. While 48 games were played prior to the All-Star break, it’s a good spot to split the numbers anyway:

Pre-ASG: 48 GP, 14 G, 15 A, 138 SOG, 10.1 S%
Post-ASG: 33 GP, 17 G, 14 A, 107 SOG, 15.9 S%

I think Kovalchuk’s (and the team’s) shooting luck got better after the ASG; which led to more points for both him and the team – and so we have better memories of him.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Dec 3, 2011 1:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I said After Lemaire took over, he was excellent.

So why are we splitting stats at the All-Star break?

Let’s try splitting stats during and after MacLean.

During-MacLean: 8g 10a (33 games)
After-MacLean: 23g, 19a (48 games)

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 2:05 PM EST up reply actions  

What are the shooting percentages in that breakdown?

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

When one argument fails, let’s keep frantically searching for more plausible explanations.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 2:14 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s the same point, dude. Over and over and over again.

It’s apparent that you believe Lemaire came back to NJ, waved his magic wand and made everything instantly better.

That’s a great, heart-warming narrative. One you could maybe write down in large-print, easy to understand words alongside glitter-encrusted pictures of bunnies and rainbows to read to children at bedtime.

Unfortunately, most people that frequent ILWT tend to be grownups who’ve outgrown fairy tales and bedtime stories and prefer actual facts.

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you’re the one writing fairy tales. Might want to re-read this post.

And if you think for a second that Devils fans, commentators, and NHL followers in general actually agree with you that Lemaire didn’t turn the season around, well then once again you’re wrong.

Shame you have to rebut stats/facts with ridiculousness like these posts.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 6:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Lemaire took part in turning the season around. I think I’ve stated that several times already.

If you want to believe he was solely responsible, then I don’t know what else to tell you.

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 7:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Woah woah woah, the fact that shooting percentages for other teams went down and we became great at stopping goals, that is all on Lemaire and the system they ended up playing. If stats were everything then why do coaches matter at all? That’s ridiculous.

And Kovalchuk speeds away, great moves, busting through, DID YOU SEE THAT?

by KovyisLove on Dec 3, 2011 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, but look at the shot counts. Kovalchuk shot at 8.4% under MacLean and 15.3% under Lemaire. Given that Kovalchuk has never finished a full season below 12% in shooting percentage, it’d be highly unlikely to think Kovalchuk would have remained below 10% all of last season. He was due to get hot and he did, particularly in February.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Dec 3, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Who would have thought that turning the puck over less leads to more, better shot opportunities?

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions  

There’s no record of turnovers, but hey, continue to miss the point.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Dec 3, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Giveaways, turnovers, call it what you want, but either way you’re wrong.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 6:36 PM EST up reply actions  

On the flip side, last night it seemed he was fighting along the boards far more often and effectively than I can ever recall seeing him do so.

Ask yourself, what has changed from the second half of last season to this one? I think the answer is a coach who held him accountable was replaced by one who doesn’t.

I’m not as up on my logical fallacies as I’d like to be, but I believe this one is called a post hoc.

Off the top of my head a list of other things that have changed since the 2nd half of last season besides the coaching change that may have some, none, just as much or even more direct or indirect impact:

  • Parise returned
  • Parise was named Captain
  • Zajac was injured
  • Palmieri took three steps backwards
  • Colin White was traded
  • Adam Larsson joined the blue line
  • everyone’s older, shorter of breath and one day closer to death
  • Kovalchuk is playing RW
  • Oates’ power play is even more cringe-inducing and confidence smashing

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 12:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Don’t forget the trade of Rolston and the signings of Boulton and Janssen.

by SonicJoe on Dec 3, 2011 12:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

True.

And before someone calls me out on it: I know White wasn’t traded, he was bought out.

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, all of these are reasons why Kovy is turning the puck over at a rate higher than ever before.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 2:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Straw man.

You said: “Ask yourself, what has changed from the second half of last season to this one?”

That’s a partial list of things that have changed that you conveniently overlooked in your rush to place all of the credit on one factor.

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 2:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I made it clear that I’m talking about his career high rate of giveaways, and I thought inherent in that question would be the obviousness of “reasons that actually make sense”.

Boulton and Janssen are legitimate reasons for you of why Kovy turns the puck over while playing with Henrique and Parise? Rolston not being here is a legitimate reason? Colin White traded is a reason? Palmieri being gone?

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Because of Boulton and Janssen, Kovy is double-shifted a lot, wearing him down. Because Rolston isn’t blasting shots from the point on the PP, Kovy is relied on more heavily in thatsituation. And Palmieri not playing at the same level as last year had an effect, as he was good with Kovy last year and it was expected that that would continue. White might not directly affect Kovy, although it did force the team to dress less experienced Dmen, which might make Kovy’s mistakes look worse, because maybe White stays back and covers Kovy’s turnovers.

by SonicJoe on Dec 3, 2011 2:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Kovy gets double shifted not because someone is forcing him to, but probably because he requests/demands it. Meanwhile, it’s accomplished about nothing so far this year, and Tedenby continues to average 11 minutes a night.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 2:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Kovy gets double shifted not because someone is forcing him to, but probably because he requests/demands it.

Do you have any evidence of this?

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Dec 3, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow, so you think that he’s being forced into it?

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 6:39 PM EST up reply actions  

i dont think forced, demanded or even requested is how this came about

i highly doubt he walked up to the coached and demanded to be played on the 4th line. I doubt the evil old coach told him he has to double shift or else!….

it probably happened a little more like “Hey ilya, we have no 4th line, would you mind double shifting a little here and there?” " Sure coach"

god, I should write for a living

by OnessMaximus on Dec 3, 2011 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh really? You think if Kovy didn’t want to take a shift on the 4th line, was too tired, was feeling like it was affecting his game, that he would be denied this request?

You guys really are that out of touch with how the NHL works to think he’s being forced to play there? If he doesn’t want to, or tells the coach it’s negatively affecting his game to be double shifted, then he wouldn’t be there. Stop being oblivious, these are facts. It’s how the league works.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 6:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Now you’re just making things up and stating opinion as fact.

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 2:58 PM EST up reply actions  

You didn’t make that clear at all; you referred to “mistakes” and a lack of scoring.

As SonicJoe above points out (because he gets it), the game and the team are all intertwined and minor, seemingly unimportant changes can have indirect and unforeseen effects.

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions  

his career high rate of giveaways

Giveaways are a subjective statistic. Similar to takeaways and hits and even “scoring chances”, they are counted differently by every single official scorer in the NHL and can vary greatly from arena to arena. A giveaway isn’t an objective statistic such as plus-minus or goals scored, where everyone agrees on the definition. It isn’t even a partially objective statistic such as shots where different scorers will sometimes award more or fewer (there is some bias in shot tallies from different arenas).

Until/unless the NHL standardizes the definition and applies it uniformly across the League, there is no reasonable way to discuss the statistic and its rate and whether or not one is performing at a career-best or career-worst level. If Kovalchuk is at a “career high” in your eyes, that’s your opinion and you’re welcome to it…. but it may also be confirmation bias in that you’re seeing giveaways because you are trying to see them.

by acasser on Dec 3, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions  

This reads as “blah blah blah” they’re counted different and the league hates the Devils. Care to present any actual stats/arguments?

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 6:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Are you really going to dispute that rink biases exist?

And, he said nothing about the League hating anyone.

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 7:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Give it up, elesias. The facts simply get in the way of all his arguments and straw men.

by acasser on Dec 3, 2011 8:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow, that’s all I can really say.

a list of other things that have changed since the 2nd half of last season besides the coaching change that may have some, none, just as much or even more direct or indirect impact:

So if I’m reading this correctly, the list below contains changes that you believe may be the cause of Kovalchuk’s decline in performance?

Parise returned

Really?

Parise was named Captain

Really?

Zajac was injured

OK, there you go, valid. But is Travis Zajac really the reason that Kovy is turning the puck over? Look at the stats on NHL.com. Prior to coming to the Devils, Kovy only lead the league in giveaways once in his career. Now on the Devils, and for two years straight, he’s leading the league in turnovers. I think it’s a little deeper than Zajac.

Palmieri took three steps backwards

So Kovy went from playing with Palmieri, to playing with Parise and Henrique. Are you trying to say that Parise and Henrique are downgrades from Palmieri? Palmieri was never a good player. He still hasn’t scored an NHL goal from an area farther than the reach of the crease. I don’t see how Palmieri not being on the team has had a direct/indirect impact in any negative way.

Colin White was traded

I think the presence of Colin White factors as much into Kovalchuk’s offensive abilities as the guy grilling hot dogs in the concourse.

Adam Larsson joined the blue line

Yep

everyone’s older, shorter of breath and one day closer to death

As everyone has been and will be for every day of Kovy’s contract.

Kovalchuk is playing RW

This is the only thing I can agree with and I agree 100%. I sat down and watched NHL.com’s complete listing of all Kovalchuk’s career goals and then I watched them all again so that my notes were right. I have all my notes and stats in a word document but still haven’t had time to make it into a organized FanPost. Kovy simply is a beast from the left side. Yeah, he’s played his whole career there, but if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. And the guy knows what’s best for himself offensively. He hated going to RW last year, and stated just as much. He’s not having success at it this year either, and I suspect he won’t admit hating RW because he’s always said the right things in the media so far.

Oates’ power play is even more cringe-inducing and confidence smashing

Yep, but unfortunately turnovers on the PP, and in other facets of the game, aren’t going to help restore the confidence lost on our PP.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

So if I’m reading this correctly, the list below contains changes that you believe may be the cause of Kovalchuk’s decline in performance?

You’re reading it incorrectly, as explained above.

Really?

Yes?

Really?

Is this a trick question?

OK, there you go, valid. But is Travis Zajac really the reason that Kovy is turning the puck over? Look at the stats on NHL.com. Prior to coming to the Devils, Kovy only lead the league in giveaways once in his career. Now on the Devils, and for two years straight, he’s leading the league in turnovers. I think it’s a little deeper than Zajac.

Who said anything about explanations for why Kovalchuk turns the puck over? That’s your straw man. Don’t expect me to knock it over for you.

So Kovy went from playing with Palmieri, to playing with Parise and Henrique. Are you trying to say that Parise and Henrique are downgrades from Palmieri? Palmieri was never a good player. He still hasn’t scored an NHL goal from an area farther than the reach of the crease. I don’t see how Palmieri not being on the team has had a direct/indirect impact in any negative way.

I’m saying it’s a change from last year and may contribute in part to why he seems to not be playing as well.

I think the presence of Colin White factors as much into Kovalchuk’s offensive abilities as the guy grilling hot dogs in the concourse.

Who can say? Again, there’ve been a lot of little (and some not so little) changes and they all tie in together in ways we don’t and can’t understand. Colin White may or may not have had any direct impact on Kovalchuk, but his removal from the equation means someone else is introduced into the equation and some of the other variables are mixed up and altered.

Yep, but unfortunately turnovers on the PP, and in other facets of the game, aren’t going to help restore the confidence lost on our PP.

Agreed, but A) it’s not just Kovalchuk making those turnovers (Larsson has had a few, Elias had that doozy against Carolina where he fell down at the point, etc.) and B) the insinuation here that Lemaire somehow magically made turnovers not happen and DeBoer doesn’t have that ability is just silly.

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry buddy but I always like/respect your posts but I can’t agree with you in the slightest here. I don’t see any correlation whatsoever between nearly all the reasons you mentioned and how they could possibly, reasonably be responsible for Kovy’s inordinate amount of giveaways this year.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

What, no props for the solid Pink Floyd reference?

Tough crowd.

by elesias on Dec 3, 2011 3:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I got it instantly. Very impressive.
And then one day you’ll find 10 years have got behind you.
No one told you when to run, you missed the starting gun…

by Felon on Dec 3, 2011 4:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I love the “one day closer to death” part. Nice touch!

There is nothing quite as satisfying as out running security after you've punched out a Flyers fan!
"I was in the moment, and the moment said smack you." - Bruce Willis

by slackdog_rm on Dec 3, 2011 6:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Under Lemaire the team was playing a strong defensive minded game : Players were asked to be very conservative, creating scoring chance was clearly a secondary intention. Each game was a close one but that suited well to the team at least.

What are we watching now ? Not only Kovy but the whole team is giving the puck away on constant basis,

Kovy certainly must learn to be less careless, I can’t agree more but even without Kovy the Devils won’t be really succesful until Pete Deboer fixes that urgent issue.

Kovy with his ice time, the way he likes (and forced sometimes) to carry the puck combined with his well known brain infarctions is just a pretty exposed player under Pete Deboer.

Ask yourself, isn’t there a alarming weakness in Pete Deboer’ system firstly ?

"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"

by Elektrostal_Kid on Dec 3, 2011 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Kovy is like a power hitter who needs to bat fourth.
If you ask him to bat third, play shortstop and steal bases, it messes him up.
If you ask him to play RW (it’s funny how on his goal last night he skated to the middle from a LW position), skate the puck through the neutral zone and generally handle the puck a lot, and play the point on the PP, he doesn’t do well. I don’t know whether there’s a connection. His skills are very high, but very narrow. Let him do what he’s good at and comfortable with and see what happens.

by Felon on Dec 3, 2011 5:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Stats

6 goals, 9 assists, 67 SOG – I don’t know, I think the Devils have a better chance to win with one of their top scorers in the lineup. I thought the only people who would want Kovalchuk to be a healthy scratch would be Winnipeg supporters; but thanks for proving me wrong.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Dec 3, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought the only people who would want Kovalchuk to be a healthy scratch would be Winnipeg supporters; but thanks for proving me wrong.

Anyone who wants Kovy scratched is a Winnipeg supporter. He’s been hard to watch, but scratching a player of his level is absurd.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 2:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Move Kovy back to left wing. Even the announcer said on the radio that he doesn’t look comfortable playing right wing and has been turning the puck over too much…………..

If Marty wasn’t Marty we would be suggesting based on his play he be sent to Albany…It’s time we give Moose an opportunity to play a string of games. Quite frankly he has played better than Marty thus far and the team has played better with him in goal.

There is a reason Carter was let go by Florida, Sestito has been a career (and only average) minor leaguer and Pelley is sitting every night.. It’s time to send all 3 of them packing and go with Mills, Zharkov and Palmieri.

by denmay on Dec 3, 2011 2:06 PM EST reply actions  

Even the announcer said on the radio that he doesn’t look comfortable playing right wing and has been turning the puck over too much

What does that guy know? And so far Kovy himself has said he’s uncomfortable at RW and needs to cutback on turning over the puck. If Kovy and Devils media analysts knew anything about what’s best for Kovy and the team, then they’d be posting on here because it’s obviously not an issue.

And the goals Marty let in last night weren’t that bad. I still think he has it, and he’s shown brilliance more than once so far this young season. He isn’t playing anywhere near deserving of it, and I never want to see him sent to Albany.

by NJallDay on Dec 3, 2011 2:12 PM EST reply actions  

And so far Kovy himself has said he’s uncomfortable at RW and needs to cutback on turning over the puck.

Where?

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Dec 3, 2011 2:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Rather than making tonight's game ALL about kovy...

lets hope Moose has a good game and doesnt wander around the ice resulting in one of those “moose moments”

lets hope our Defense is up to the task of controlling a very fast top line for the jets, and doesnt forget the basic principles of positioning

lets hope the Henrique line continues to find some chemistry and the back of the net

lets hope the 3rd line can be a little more consistent tonight than they were last night

and lets hope Sestitio gets lots of ice time in the 3rd period (meaning we are winning by more than 1 goal)

but hey, im an optimist

by OnessMaximus on Dec 3, 2011 2:58 PM EST reply actions  

It’s very hard for me to blame a whole lot of these turnovers/goals on Kovi. We knew what we were getting when he got here 2 years ago. And if I recall, the mood around here after the contract signing was euphoric. Detractors of Kovalchuk: Have you forgotten how he carried the team last spring along with some great work by the Moose? He can do it again, and he will. Give him time, not every puck will bounce over his stick. As far as tonight, I’m really hoping for a win and also that I don’t have to yell Moose so much. Although it is a lot of fun to do so.

by Kovalklutch on Dec 3, 2011 3:57 PM EST reply actions  

I don’t know why but I’ve got some very high expectations for tonight’s game, I’m thrilled.

god , optimism sucks…

"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"

by Elektrostal_Kid on Dec 3, 2011 3:57 PM EST reply actions  

Detractors of Kovalchuk: Have you forgotten how he carried the team last spring along with some great work by the Moose?

Dectractors say Kovalchuk didn’t carry anything.

Sestito did

"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"

by Elektrostal_Kid on Dec 3, 2011 3:59 PM EST reply actions  

shame on me, can’t copy/paste a word correctly….

My English is horrendous anyway.

"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"

by Elektrostal_Kid on Dec 3, 2011 4:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Sestito for Hart!

There is nothing quite as satisfying as out running security after you've punched out a Flyers fan!
"I was in the moment, and the moment said smack you." - Bruce Willis

by slackdog_rm on Dec 3, 2011 6:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Haha, totally right. I was just watching some highlights of last year and have determined that I was wrong. It was in fact all Zharkov and Ralston.

by Kovalklutch on Dec 3, 2011 4:02 PM EST reply actions  

As much as I want to see Deboer work in New Jersey, but with all the coaching shake ups in the last few days, now Randy Carlyle is available. With the powerplay not working out and Carlyle running a pretty good powerplay in the past it is a interesting consideration. And he’s a great line matcher, and a bit of a perfectionist. He also knows how to push the players buttons. Probably won’t happen but what the hay, just a thought.
Thoughts?

by maliky on Dec 3, 2011 5:31 PM EST reply actions  

Why would Carlyle (or any respectable coach) want to come to a franchise that changes its head coach as frequently as this one has? If the Devils were to sack Peter DeBoer in the next week, that would be the fifth head coaching change in the last 30 months. (Sutter to Lemaire in June of 2009, Lemaire to MacLean after the 2010 playoffs, MacLean to Lemaire in December of 2010, Lemaire to DeBoer this summer)

Why would Randy Carlyle be the magic bullet that solves all the Devils’ woes? Could it be that his power play units in Anaheim were successful because of the personnel? After all, he has had all of the following players out there: Ryan Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan, Corey Perry, Teemu Selanne, Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

by acasser on Dec 3, 2011 5:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Can’t be much worse than it is now. And how do you know if he wouldn’t want the job? Did you ask him? He does have some pretty good players to work with in New Jersey too. If it works out for him than he won’t be going anywhere for a while. Plus I think he’s still getting a paycheck from the Ducks too. I’m not sure but I think he got a new contract not that long ago with the Ducks. He has nothing to lose.

by maliky on Dec 3, 2011 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Can’t be much worse than it is now.

Oh, it can be. Remember, this team only won 9 games by Christmas last season.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Dec 3, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Ah I meant the powerplay?

by maliky on Dec 3, 2011 6:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

sure it can

Rolston could be playing the point, blasting puck after puck over the net by 6 feet

by OnessMaximus on Dec 3, 2011 6:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Hey, that’s better than not entering the zone.

And Kovalchuk speeds away, great moves, busting through, DID YOU SEE THAT?

by KovyisLove on Dec 3, 2011 6:46 PM EST up reply actions  

dont get me started

i yearn for the day were we could actually have defeseman on the roster that can skate the puck up and pass with accuracy and great frequency again

by OnessMaximus on Dec 3, 2011 6:47 PM EST up reply actions  

blasting puck after puck over the net by 6 feet

At least he didn't miss the puck

"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"

by Elektrostal_Kid on Dec 3, 2011 6:50 PM EST up reply actions  

The way to improve the PP is to relieve Oates of the responsibility, not replace DeBoer.

by SonicJoe on Dec 3, 2011 6:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

So good to see all you Devils fans happy and getting along and not at each other’s throats during a 3-game losing streak!

by Marty 4 Prez on Dec 3, 2011 7:00 PM EST reply actions  

you didnt use the sarcasm font

god man!

by OnessMaximus on Dec 3, 2011 7:09 PM EST up reply actions  

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