The New Jersey Devils Should Be Sellers at the 2011 NHL Trade Deadline
by John Fischer on Feb 14, 2011 6:38 PM EST
in Devils Issues, Views & Analysis
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In the past week's, I've made a few cases for what the New Jersey Devils should do in the short term. I've stated how costly a high draft pick is in the NHL Entry Draft; basically why the Devils shouldn't rush him into the league immediately. I've explained why Alexander Urbom and Jacob Josefson should remain in Albany and let their contracts slide into next season - both from a business and developmental standpoint. Before both posts, Tom made the case that the Devils should be sellers at the trade deadline back on January 3.
I point out the date of that post since that was back when New Jersey was in dead last in the NHL. Now, the Devils are among the hottest teams in the NHL, if not the hottest. Since trading Jamie Langenbrunner on January 7, the Devils have earned an incredible record of 12-2-2. They are no longer the worst team in the league or even in the Eastern Conference, and spirits have risen among the fanbase. There have been a few FanPosts tracking the Devils' playoff hopes; such as this post by Alamoth, this post by Alan Wright, and this post by FrankG929, who's hosting his own tracker on his webspace. There are other articles around the hockey media praising the Devils' return to form, like this recent one one from John Grigg at the Hockey News. (thanks to ILWT user joshd12 for posting this up as a FanShot).
It's great to see the Devils finally getting some breaks (Jacques Lemaire said as such as reported by Timo Seppa after the San Jose game); and the team has become far more watchable than they were in the first half of the season. That's definitely good for business, and the organization is aware of it. Now that "One Game At a Time" has been splashed on the front page of the Devils' website, they know that promoting the playoffs as a possibility will help sell tickets and keep fan interest as long as possible.
That's all well and good. However, I believe Tom's earlier point is still true. As I said on Episode 20 of Taking Red, I believe they should still be sellers for the upcoming NHL Trade Deadline. I'll explain why and what the Devils should be looking for after the jump.
Accept It: The Playoffs Aren't Happening in Newark in 2011
For those who aren't aware, the deadline is two weeks from today. The deadline is precisely at 3 PM EST on Monday, February 28, 2011. As it stands, the Devils are enjoying an excellent run of results. The big question the Devils have to answer before the 28th is whether the playoffs are a realistic possibility.
I believe this is a simple question. The answer is no, they are not at all a realistic possibility.
Don't misunderstand me, I love the fact that the Devils are now scoring goals and getting 'W's. I'm not hung up on whether the Devils will finish in the draft lottery or not. At the same time, it would be foolish to ignore the situation the team has been in this season. It wasn't until February 3rd when the Devils got out of 30th place in the league. At that point, the run was 8-2-1, which is great on it's own. The hot streak had to continue for the Devils to leapfrog the Islanders, who are now only one point behind the Devils right now. That's how deep the hole the Devils were in. They need to rattle off an incredible run of games just to get out of last place and there's no guarantee they won't be jumped.
Am I to really believe that the Devils are going to make up 5 spots to get to 8th place? It's not as simple as making up a 14 point gap, they have to surpass (as of now) Carolina, Atlanta, Buffalo, Florida, and Toronto while fending off the Isles.
To hammer home the point, check out this site called Sports Club Stats. It gauges where a team is likely to finish based on their current record, the games left remaining, and factors in results in other games. They run simulations everyday for the rest of the season and factors in final positioning. It's a pretty cool site. So what does it say about the Devils' chances? As of right now, the site has determined that New Jersey a 0.043211% chance for the Devils to make the playoffs.
Yeah, it's not even near 0.1%.
Most of the simulations require the Devils to win at least 17 of their next 26 games - and even then it's not a guaranteed trip to the postseason. Sports Club Stats has the Devils more likely to finish where they are in the Eastern Conference.
Basically, I don't believe the Devils will make the playoffs - it's that unlikely to happen. Therefore, they should look to sell at the trade deadline
But Even If You Do Believe in the Postseason, The Devils Should Still Sell
The big reason for the Devils to sell at the trade deadline is to clear space for 2011-12. As per CapGeek, the Devils will have $9,222,250 in salary cap space for next season with only 15 players on the books. Even if the salary cap increases for 2011-12, the Devils will (hopefully) use most of that space to tie up Zach Parise, leaving little money for the rest of the roster to answer more immediate needs. So if you want to keep, say, Parise and Andy Greene and still fill out a NHL roster, then the Devils need to move salary.
Of course, the Devils don't have a lot of cap space now. CapGeek currently figures the maximum full-season cap hit the Devils can take now is at $1,755,833. I highly doubt the Devils can acquire a difference maker at such a low price. And I believe that space goes away if Zach Parise does get off long term injured reserve later this season, as the player hoped per this post by Tom Gulitti at Fire & Ice. Basically, because of the cap, the Devils really can't be significant buyers at the trade deadline. Besides, I'm sure Jeff Vanderbeek and Lou Lamoriello aren't interested in increasing payroll any further than it is already.
If the Devils can move some salary now, then they can help themselves out for this upcoming summer and next season.
Plus, consider who has and hasn't been hot during this run and their long term future. Will pending unrestricted free agents Jason Arnott, Andy Greene, and Johan Hedberg want to return? If it's clear right now that they do not, then can either command something of interest in a trade? Even if they want to return, perhaps renting them out could net the Devils something in the meantime like a late draft pick.
Even if the team doesn't want to disrupt what they have - and that's understandable - they still have to know who has and has not been important to the team's performances. If, for example, Jason Arnott or David Clarkson aren't playing to satisfaction in the eyes of management in the middle of a hot streak, then what's the point of keeping them when things go south?
The Devils may even get a chance to sell high. One of the hottest players in this 12-2-2 run has been Brian Rolston. In this recent range of games, he has scored 6 goals, put up 8 assists, and has actually given an effort every night. Rolston's contract is still terrible, but if his recent performances are enough to convince someone to make a deal with him, then shouldn't the Devils consider accepting it?
These are the questions the Devils have to consider even if the intention is to go as far as possible to make the postseason. With the frenzy of speculation and discussion, the Devils may be able to set themselves up to have more cap space and come away with some cheaper assets on March 1 without blowing up the whole team. They can still be quite competitive depending on who they choose to move.
Striving for Cheap Assets
Even if you completely disagree with me, let's discuss what the Devils should be looking for in a trade: draft picks and prospects.
Ideally, I'd love to see the Devils get a couple more picks for the 2011 NHL Entry Draft and even a few for 2012. The Devils do have a conditional pick from Dallas from the Langenbrunner deal. It'll be a third round pick unless the Stars win a round in the playoffs or they re-sign Langenbrunner before the draft. Then it becomes a second round pick.
However, the Stars may not even make the playoffs. Derek Zona at the Copper & Blue has this excellent post on how the Pacific Division may shake out. It doesn't bode well for Dallas. Therefore, I want the Devils to be proactive and try to get a second round pick for 2011 along with others. While a draft pick isn't guaranteed to generate a player, it gives the Devils more options on draft day and allow them to beef up their system depth.
I also wouldn't mind if the Devils got some prospects on an entry level contract or a minor leaguer on a two-way contract in return. They are a little more expensive since, well, they have contracts. It will cost the Devils space to have them on the roster. However, they can remain in the minors or in developmental leagues (junior, college, Europe) if they're younger. You never know if the player will develop better in the New Jersey system or possibly get a shot here that he wouldn't get at his former team. I doubt the Devils will get any high-level prospects unless they make a big trade; but getting a few mid-level guys to stock up in Albany wouldn't be so bad. The AHL affiliate has several pending free agents after this season too and will need players anyway to fill up the roster.
The Devils should avoid taking NHL players since, as noted earlier, they don't have the space. They won't be able to add anyone of significance. Also, the Devils need to plan for this upcoming summer and next season. Adding a non-expiring contract doesn't help unless Lou figures the player in their future plans.
Lastly, the Market is Already in Action
The Devils made a minor deal last week with San Jose, swapping minor leaguers for minor leaguers. However, throughout in the NHL, more significant deals have been made. The basement dwelling Senators have already begun selling last week. Nashville picked up Mike Fisher from Ottawa, who has 2 more years on his deal at a $4.2 million/year cap hit for draft picks. Florida and Chicago made a trade, where the Panthers moved Michael Frolik (selling him low) and Alexander Salak in exchange for Jack Skille, Hugh Jessiman (yes, the Hugh Jessiman), and David Pecan. Philadelphia just acquired Kris Versteeg from Toronto less than an hour ago.
The trade deadline is only 2 weeks away and there's already this much action. The Devils can't wait it out and then decide to sell or not. They need to consider what interest they are getting now and be willing to hear out all parties.
By all means, I don't want Lou to blow up the team or take a bad deal just to make a deal. But I don't want the Devils to do nothing just because they still have an incredibly low probability of making the postseason or to make a point. I find that to be just plain silly. I want them to trade soon-to-be gone players or bad contracts for cheaper assets. I want them to be sellers at the 2011 NHL Trade Deadline.
Your Turn
That's my entire spiel on the subject. In the coming two weeks, expect more trade-deadline-based posts regarding players from myself and the other writers. Hopefully, you continue to go to In Lou We Trust for intelligent and reasoned discussion regarding this exciting time of the season. Therefore, I want to know what do you think. Do you agree that the Devils should be sellers at the trade deadline? If not, then why do you think the Devils should do nothing or look to be buyers? Who do you want to see traded? What do you want to see in return? Please leave your answers and other thoughts in the comments. Thank you for reading.
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By Sunday they could be 8 points back. With a game on hand and 23 games to play.
If it was me. I don’t do anything till Sunday. If they don’t go 3-0. Then start fielding offers.
by NJDOhio on Feb 14, 2011 7:13 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
#1… statistics are a lot but no way are they anything that is just concrete… less than .01 % is 100% not true. (see what I did there?). There are way too many variables to put into a # considering something like, what if cam ward and say, Miller go down? I doubt its a 1 in 10000 chance that that happens, and although it is still HIGHLY unlikely it’ll happen, you can’t rule it out until it happens.
- Yeah even though they have some chance they have to be sellers. An often problem with this team from analysts is their speed. This probably has to do more with the age of the team than anything else, but still sending Arnott makes the team younger and hopefully faster, #2.5 is if Arnott is traded, that is all the more beneficiary for players like Tedenby who can see their ice time increase significantly, because the little amount he plays now might not be enough experience as it can be to prepare for next season.
I don't think you're taking the situation seriously enough
There are way too many variables to put into a # considering something like, what if cam ward and say, Miller go down? I doubt its a 1 in 10000 chance that that happens, and although it is still HIGHLY unlikely it’ll happen, you can’t rule it out until it happens.
There are 14 days before the trade deadline. Let me repeat: 14 days. They do not have the luxury of waiting. Especially that teams have already made some significant deals last week, one has happened just now, and more are to come.
For the Devils, they need to make a decision as to their approach to the trade deadline. As of right now and in the foreseeable future, the playoffs are incredibly unlikely. To me, it is absolutely stupid to then act as if the incredibly unlikely is going to happen. After February 28, that’s it – the roster is what it is, well before we know if the Devils still have a hope or (more likely) are eliminated by March.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Feb 14, 2011 7:40 PM EST up reply actions
John, I'm sorry but if the Devils continue to win games, I would not ship away anyone.
I mean….why would you want to mess up the CHEMISTRY the team FINALLY has?
Besides, you mentioned Brian Rolston?
NO ONE WANTS HIS CONTRACT!!! They will want him NEXT SEASON where he becomes an expiring one. Not before!
I mean….why would you want to mess up the CHEMISTRY the team FINALLY has?
What’s the point of having chemistry if the team’s not going to the playoffs. Why not try to get something for players who are likely to leave after this season? Why not try to create some cap space so the Devils can do more than just re-sign Parise and fill in gaps this summer?
Besides, you mentioned Brian Rolston?
NO ONE WANTS HIS CONTRACT!!! They will want him NEXT SEASON where he becomes an expiring one. Not before!
I mentioned in the post you’re commenting on that if someone is interested, then he should be considered for a move. Nashville traded for Mike Fisher, who has a $4.2 million/year cap hit for the next two seasons. Maybe some GM can be fooled by Rolston’s improved play as of late as to want him on their team. If no one wants them, then nothing happens.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Feb 15, 2011 6:42 PM EST up reply actions
What’s the point of having chemistry if the team’s not going to the playoffs. Why not try to get something for players who are likely to leave after this season? Why not try to create some cap space so the Devils can do more than just re-sign Parise and fill in gaps this summer?
Until we are mathematically out of it, I think it’s a bit premature to say that this team is not going to the playoffs. Just saying…
And you think Arnie would likely leave after this season?
I understand your point about Parise but wasn’t Arnie signed for just this year or am I wrong?
I mentioned in the post you’re commenting on that if someone is interested, then he should be considered for a move. Nashville traded for Mike Fisher, who has a $4.2 million/year cap hit for the next two seasons. Maybe some GM can be fooled by Rolston’s improved play as of late as to want him on their team. If no one wants them, then nothing happens.
Maybe some GM will be fooled by Rolston.
Then again, maybe Florida’s GM goes nuts and gives us Kulikov. lol.
Both are highly unlikely to happen, of course.
Until we are mathematically out of it, I think it’s a bit premature to say that this team is not going to the playoffs. Just saying…Why? The fact is that the Devils pull off 12 wins in 14 games over the last 4-6 weeks and are still well behind several teams in the Conference. The Devils need to remain hot and need several other teams to drop. I think it’s rather compelling evidence to say the playoffs aren’t likely to happen for New Jersey this season.
If you need to have their chances die before admitting that it’s dead, then fine. But I don’t see how it’s premature to point out the reality of the situation.
And you think Arnie would likely leave after this season?He’s an unrestricted free agent and the Devils won’t have a lot of space to spend. I don’t see him returning.
I understand your point about Parise but wasn’t Arnie signed for just this year or am I wrong?Arnott was acquired in a trade last summer: Matt Halischuk and a 2010 2nd round pick for Arnott.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Feb 15, 2011 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
Whoops. The Quote feature betrayed you, John. :)
I know you’re pointing out the reality of the situation….Call me superstitious but I’d rather try and keep this going until the “ride” ends before calling it a season.
Let us Dream, John.
Just let us Dream. :(
He’s an unrestricted free agent and the Devils won’t have a lot of space to spend.
I do understand this but how much do you think he would sign for. He is 36 and I would think he would take a home town discount. I could see Arnott wanting to finish his career in NJ, especially now that they are looking like a contender for next year. That’s my opinion.
Joshd12
Brock University
BA. Sports Management, 2014
BA. Recreation and Leisure Studies, 2011
If he wants anything more than $1.5M, $2M at the absolute highest, they should politely say “no thanks.”
Go Devils Playoff Death Watch
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Playoff Run
I hate to be a doubter because I love my Devils and have since they moved to NJ, but I do feel that they’ll fall just short of the playoffs this year. So, I must agree with John about the Devs becoming sellers before the deadline. I undersyand that that’ll tell the team that management has no confidence in this playoff run amounting to a spot, but the hole that was dug earlier this season is just a bit too deep. In my opinion. So, why not try to aquire draft picks for the players we might give away for free at season’s end anyway? I’d love to see the Devs in the playoffs again, and will never root for them to lose a game, but I just can’t see it happening this year. GO DEVILS!
No offense intended but this quote signifies the "Loser" mentality
I undersyand that that’ll tell the team that management has no confidence in this playoff run amounting to a spot, but the hole that was dug earlier this season is just a bit too deep.
If the players see that Managment has no confidence in their chances, then why the hell should they even bother trying then? If things are going good, you should NEVER rock the boat, so to speak.
You should ALWAYS have confidence in your team and always believe that they have a shot so long as they’re not mathematically out of it.
Chances are slim but not zero
If you take a look at how many points are needed to get in the playoffs as the 8 seed, the Devils chances seem far off. Last year was an abberation with the 8th seed having only 88 points. The average points for the 8th slot over the last 10 years was 91, lockout year doesn’t get averaged in. That means we need to win 22 out of the next 26 games to beat this total. Not impossible, just improbable.
What did our dear president write, The Audacity of Hope?
Not really an abberation
If Carolina and Buffalo play the rest of the season at the rate they’ve played the entire season thus far, they will both finish with 88 points. Plus, you also have to consider the extremes, are the best teams taking more points than usual, are the worst teams taking less than usual. Both those scenarios could effect the point totals of the teams in the middle. I know I did a post or had a comment on that a ways back. But do you know how many times in the past 10 or so seasons the top two teams have combined for 225 points (that’s the pace the Flyers and Lightning are currently on)? ONCE. 2005-2006. 2000-2001 was close at 220. Ottawa is on pace to get 62 points, which is more than the fewest points in either of the two other best teams. Where are those extra points going to come from? The teams on the bubble.
8th place has 87 or 88 points in the east this season. Bank on it, with a slight chance for 86.
Go Devils Playoff Death Watch
"Hope Is a Good Thing, Maybe the Best of Things, and No Good Thing Ever Dies." - Andy Dufresne – The Shawshank Redemption
Go Jets
“a ways back” was here.
Go Devils Playoff Death Watch
"Hope Is a Good Thing, Maybe the Best of Things, and No Good Thing Ever Dies." - Andy Dufresne – The Shawshank Redemption
Go Jets
Let the Fantasy Roll
John, I have been enjoying your posts recently — and from time to time last year. One thing about this playoffs business, though. After the horrible start to the season that Devils fans had, why start pushing the “It’s Hopeless” angle so far out? Yes, I see your numbers and I’m not disagreeing at all. I value your analysis and I can tell you’re on top of things. But hockey and sports are about dreaming and about escaping from the miseries of real life — your car payment, your divorce, your sick kid, your horrible job, mailing your 1,000th resume with no response while people tell you it’s Recovery Summer.
I’m all for being grounded in reality, but in this case, with the trading deadline two weeks away, maybe consider letting people dream just a little.
Sure, they may well fall short, but in the words of Robert Browning: “Ah, but a man’s reach should exceed his grasp, or what’s a heaven for?”
Again, love the job you do — coming from a professional writer. (The audio quality on the podcast, specifically Skype, however, could use improvement. Just so you don’t think I’m full of false praise.)
I sympathize
Thank you for the compliments. I’ll pass on the Talking Red notes.
I really do sympathize with those who want to believe in the playoffs. Don’t mistake me, if it somehow happens, then I’d be more than happy to post about how wrong I was and allow users to point out how wrong I was. And I do agree that part of the majesty (for lack of a better word) of sport is to hope for the best even when it’s the worst. Believe me, I know all about supporting a team that’s in the dumps (e.g. the 2009 NY Red Bulls), so I know how hard that it is. Especially through hard times.
That all said, while the deadline is 2 weeks away, moves are being made now. While I don’t expect the Devils to make a deal soon, they do have to make the decision how to approach this season’s trade deadline really soon. They will get inquiries and have more exploratory discussions behind the scenes than you and I can expect. They need to at least know whether how involved they are going to get. That’s the main driver of this piece. The Devils need to make that choice and I think they should be sellers. Namely because, well, the playoffs are so unlikely that to bank on them is incredibly foolhardy.
Let me put it another way. Back in December, I wrote this about what I felt the fanbase was feeling with all the losing. Then, before the Month of Bad Losses Continued, it was accepted that the season is lost. I think that helped as to why it got a good reaction.
Now that the team has gotten a lot of wins, percentages are going their way, breaks are going their way, and so forth, I fully understand why the fans want to think this season is lost. However, the Devils are just climbing out of this hole with this recent run. It was that deep. I’m very glad the team is playing better, but it’s not enough to me that they will somehow salvage this season. Therefore, they should sell at the deadline.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Feb 14, 2011 7:58 PM EST up reply actions
Super. I'll read the prevoius piece.
One thing I didn’t get on first reading was you’re speculating on what the team should do, but the URL of the website is to trust Lou. I’d like to leave it in his hands for now.
Also, with the horrible attendance at the Rock during the awful start to the season, there may be something to be said for packing folks in now and not sending a signal that we’re giving up on the playoffs. Revenue could be important with the ownership angle and with the obvious need to pay not only salaries, but whatever fines the NHL decides to slap on us simply for existing.
And by the way, yesterday’s results went against the Devils in every game possible, illustrating just how hard it’s going to be to achieve the playoffs. Generally when you have to string together more than two IFs, you’re in trouble.
As always, it’s good to know we can count on the front office to make a move to improve the team if the move is there.
by Chicoandtheman on Feb 14, 2011 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
100% agree
I think most rational fans know that the playoffs are unlikely, but I think most of us want revel in the hot streak right now and just see where it goes.
These sorts of posts are such “lets give up on the season” downers especially when the team is finally playing well. And sure it may be too little too late, but until the nail is in the coffin i’d rather live in the moment and worry about the reality of things when we’re at that point.
Let the GM be the rational one and do whatever he has to. We’re fans and after a hard season i’d rather ride this high out until it’s over and then see where we stand.
Also I don’t think we’ll be getting much value back for their assets. Especially ones that may walk. keeping them and putting fans in the seats for a albeit longshot playoff run may be worth more $$$ to the team.
Well said.
It’s nice not to have all that pressure. I just feel like dreaming a little longer. Hit the snooze.
by Chicoandtheman on Feb 14, 2011 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
Also I don’t think we’ll be getting much value back for their assets. Especially ones that may walk. keeping them and putting fans in the seats for a albeit longshot playoff run may be worth more $$$ to the team.
Any value is better than nothing. If it means getting a 3rd or 4th round pick for Arnott, Hedberg, Greene, anybody that has a serious chance to be gone on 7/1, the Devils ought to at least consider it.
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Ummm
Any value is better than nothing.
This is why LOU is our GM and you, me, and everyone else isn’t.
If there is a team that would give up a HIGH-2ND rounder for Arnott, Lou might bite.
Anything below a 2nd rounder, though? Thanks for coming. There’s the door.
3rd and 4th rounders, to clarify, *are* "nothing", IMO.
You have to be very VERY Lucky to land a ‘sleeper’ or diamond-in-the-rough and the chances aren’t that good.
I think most rational fans know that the playoffs are unlikely, but I think most of us want revel in the hot streak right now and just see where it goes.
These sorts of posts are such "lets give up on the season" downers especially when the team is finally playing well. And sure it may be too little too late, but until the nail is in the coffin i’d rather live in the moment and worry about the reality of things when we’re at that point.
Let the GM be the rational one and do whatever he has to. We’re fans and after a hard season i’d rather ride this high out until it’s over and then see where we stand.
Well, I’m sorry I’m such a downer. I’m just calling it as it is. Plus, the whole point of bringing up the improbability of making the post season is that there’s a rather important date coming up. The Devils (or anyone else) doesn’t have the luxury of seeing where they stand for very long.
If they haven’t already, then the team needs to decide how they are going to approach the trade deadline. My argument boils down to: the playoffs are an incredible long shot that very few mistakes are allowed at this point. i wouldn’t bet on that. Therefore, if there is interest from other teams in Devils players that do not factor into the team’s future and/or can create more cap space for the next few seasons, then the Devils should be selling. I don’t see why that it’s a sticking point for me to point that out any more than it is to point out that the Devils’ first round draft pick is going to cost a lot of money or that it wouldn’t be wise to call up Urbom and Josefson.
For all I know, the Devils can still be hot while trading a few guys. It’s not like Jason Arnott (to pick a player as an example) is a main driver of the team’s recent success.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Feb 15, 2011 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
For all I know, the Devils can still be hot while trading a few guys. It’s not like Jason Arnott (to pick a player as an example) is a main driver of the team’s recent success.
You could be right but Arnott is always a threat to score and a big body out there, plus he’s got Cup experience along with experience with us. We lose him who do we put in his place? Taormina? Urbom? Josefson?
There’s something to be said for continuity and chemistry. And I feel that removing Jason from that equation may upset the overall balance of the Lines in-game. Just my opinion, of course.
You could be right but Arnott is always a threat to score
No, he’s not. If he was, then it’s all the more reason to trade him as a “rental” pending UFA.
a big body out there
OK, he’s big.
plus he’s got Cup experience
As does many people. That doesn’t really mean much.
with experience with us.
Which means very little as he’s centering the third line with two rookies. The last time he was in NJ for a significant amount of time was way back near the beginning of the last decade.
We lose him who do we put in his place? Taormina? Urbom? Josefson?
Well, hopefully not a defenseman like Taormina (who’s also hurt) or Urbom. And not Josefson or Urbom because that would kick off their ELCs. The Devils could move Zubrus back to center or call up Henrique or McIntyre for a bit.
There’s something to be said for continuity and chemistry. And I feel that removing Jason from that equation may upset the overall balance of the Lines in-game.
Jason Arnott gets, what, 12-14 minutes a game? I don’t see how losing that upsets the balance of the team.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Feb 15, 2011 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
Hey, I admit I check the standings every day and there is a part of me who thinks they can do it, but there is nothing wrong with doing what any good business should do and that is leverage your assets while they are valuable. You can still have a ‘miracle’ run without Arnott/Greene.
In Lou We Trust: SBN Blog of the New Jersey Devils
We get rid of Greene, there's a transition period where the Defenseman SUCKS.
Remember How horrid Tallinder was?
I say we should stay as neither buyer nor sellers at the Deadline.
Sell
I think the Devils should sell. I love the idea in my head that they will make the playoffs, but I would rather scrap this year and try to put together a strong team for next year when Brodeur is on the last year of his contract. Hell, maybe we will get lucky and Jacques Lemaire will choose to stay as the coach (unlikely I think) and they will get a chance to continue their winning ways of this season.
Personally I believe that is the Devils choose to sell this week I think we can let Arnott go on a temporary basis. He claims he loves New Jersey, so maybe he will be willing to resign next year for less and help to contribute on what appears to be a very good team when properly coached. I think the Devils need to try and find a way to keep Parise and Greene. Parise is a no brainer, but I think Greene is worthwhile defender. He’s relatively (28) young and is a good second (occasionally first) line D-man. I have paid attention to the defense down in Albany and there are some good guys there, but I think Greene will still be needed when Urbom and a few others crack the line up.
I love the idea in my head that they will make the playoffs, but I would rather scrap this year
Many fans would disagree with your assessment ’cause so long as the “Dream” of making the impossible..well…possible still exists, many fans will continue to BELIEVE until they know they are mathematically out of it.
If you “scrap this year”, you run the risk of the Fans “scrapping this year at the Rock” altogether. Then we’ll start looking like we really do NOT have fans like our detractors state.
Arnott is really the only major piece we have to offer (unless someone wants Rolston or Zubrus). Would trading Arnott be waving the white flag on the season? I don’t think so.
Arnott+Clarkson for Goligoski. It will leave us a little thin at center, but nets us that quality puck-moving D-man we need. Frees up cap space as well.
1995 - 2000 - 2003
I would like the Devils to avoid moving Clarkson if they could. Clarkson is our “tough guy”, but he perfectly capable of playing offense when he needs to unlike most “tough guys” around the league. The only alternative I cant think to CLarkson is PL3 and I dont know if I would rather have him because all he is really is a an enforcer/fighter/“tough guy”. While I would like to have Goligoski (I think its kind of unlikely they move him) and to free up cap space, I would rather have Clarkson if we could.
by Jacob Shepherd on Feb 14, 2011 8:25 PM EST up reply actions
The only alternative I cant think to CLarkson is PL3 and I dont know if I would rather have him
That thought shouldn’t even need to live more than a nanosecond. Anybody who even for a second would consider PL3 over Clarkson needs help; unless the team was absolutely broke, it isn’t anywhere near a close call.
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Yeah I wasnt even considering PL3. I was just saying that he is really our only other “tough guy”, which a team doesnt really need its just nice to have one around to protect players. I really like what I see out of Clarkson and love to see him stay and I hope he does. PL3 isnt a terrible player, but I wouldnt want him to play a prominent role on the team. He could be useful as a 3rd/4th line guy, but even 3rd is a stretch I think.
by Jacob Shepherd on Feb 15, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
Letang’s emergence this year, as well as Martin, make him a little redundant on their blueline. PIT has a strong defensive base to deal from, and badly needs a center, and they always seem to need wingers. I said Clarkson because he makes more than our younger wingers and would free up some cap space.
1995 - 2000 - 2003
I too would love to land Goligoski, but while Arnott is a natural fit for the Pens right now, Clarkson is not. With the Malkin injury, the Pens have cap space to play with for the rest of this season. But they don’t have room to add salary beyond this year. The math just doesn’t fit with Clarkson, who has two remaining years on his contract. More likely is Arnott+Palmieri for Goligoski. Of course, all of this assumes a willingness of Lou’s part to deal within the division.
by TheTrapezoidConspiracy on Feb 14, 2011 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
He is more capable of playing the point on the powerplay than any defenseman we currently have on the team. But most importantly, he has a 1.8 million dollar cap hit next year (and will be restricted the year after). This means that he is outperforming his contract. Given the Devils cap situation next year, we need as many overachieving players as possible.
by TheTrapezoidConspiracy on Feb 16, 2011 12:02 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t really understand why the devils would trade for draft picks, especially with the no cap room. If i remember correctly, the first overall pick gets paid 3m a year except Erik Johnson. Besides, even if we trade players away, cant we only trade away one or two players because we have no cap space to bring people up from Albany?
I’m not really sure with the first overall pick has to do with this. The Devils wouldn’t be trading with the Ottawa Senators. If the Devils got a 1st round pick, (which I doubt will happen since our most tradeable assets are guys with expiring contracts and are thus unlikely to command such a high price) it’ll be in the 15-30 range, closer to 30 than 15 if the team makes it out of the first round. His salary would most certainly not be near $3M because he will not be that high of a selection (even someone like VanRiemsdyk is only making $1.6M per year and he was 2nd overall. Also, a player the Devils drafted in that range, given our history, will not be seeing the big league next year, so there really is no cap issue presented by getting draft picks.
They’d have to make the playoffs to make it past the first round. While I continue to hold out hope until they’re officially eliminated, realistically, I’m expecting a 10th or 11th place finish at best in the east, so a pick somewhere in the 8-12 range.
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I was referring to a pick that would have been traded to us, not our own pick, which I think will be somewhere in the 5-8 range (spots 9-14 should be loaded with Western teams)
Just to clarify more (because I feel my last post wasn’t adequate). In his post Devils!!! said he didn’t understand why the Devils would trade for draft picks if there was no cap room, so I was saying that it’s not a relevant issue because any pick we would receive would not be high enough to demand a salary that would influence our cap. My comment that the pick will “be in the 15-30 range, closer to 30 than 15 if the team makes it out of the first round” refers to the team that traded us the hypothetical first round pick (which as I said I dont expect to happen).
Give it another week or so.....
We will know better… if the Devils are not making up ground within a week, the possibility of winning will be even lower, then it makes complete sense to start the selling. Personally, I would hope for playoff, may be Marty’s last chance, given how easily he is injured this season. But stats don’t lie, and stats will be more convincing in a few more days. On another note, I can’t imagine teams trading for Rolston with the cap that he commands, but stranger things have happened I suppose.
Yep
If we beat the Canes twice (highly unlikely considering the recent history) and the Rangers, then I might hold my hand for another week. But you don’t want to wait & have your assets damaged.
I have respect for most sports fans with 2 exceptions: NY Ranger fans who grew up in New Jersey, and Dallas Cowboy fans who can't name the capital of Texas.
I don't agree.
Personally, I would hope for playoff, may be Marty’s last chance, given how easily he is injured this season.
I don’t believe that for a second. Marty WILL have to sit a bit more and let his backup(whom I hope is Hedberg again next year) give him an extended Breather here and there. I think IF the Devils win the Cup one more time, Marty calls it a career. That’s my feeling on it.
I think Arnott is really the only sure thing to be moved come trade deadline. He is a solid center who could also help teams on the PP. His role has diminished as the year has progressed and could easily be replaced by a prospect or Zubrus.
Moving Greene would be a gamble. He is a pretty solid player but he will require a hefty raise next year. Keeping him would solidify our defense but leave us in more cap trouble. On the other hand we do have a lot of young defensemen, moving him would give one of them the opportunity to step up and free up some cap space. I would be ok with whatever Lou decides to do with Greene.
When it comes to Clarkson I think he still has a future with us. He has the skill to be productive on any line. Lemaire just feels he is best suited on the 4th line, which is getting about the same time on ice as our 3rd line. I wouldn’t mind moving him if we drafted a player with similar skills this year. Someone along the lines of Tyler Biggs. Right now we don’t have many prospects that bring a physical presence.
Agreed
I completely agree with your general point. Isn’t it possible that us Devils fans are creating a false dilemma? Even if the Devils are sellers, they can still try to make a playoff run. I don’t think anyone is talking about getting rid of the core of this team. Our playoff hopes do not hinge on Jason Arnott.
John, I hope you write a follow up article discussing specific players who should and should not be traded. Sure, Arnott and Rolston are easy picks. But what about a guy like Zubrus? Even with his improved play, he is not worth his contract, but I think his value to the team in terms of positional versatility is greater than what we’d get for him in a trade. But I really don’t know. Is it time to give up on Clarkson, or do we commit to him as a third liner? With our cap issues, we can’t afford to pay a fourth liner the kind of money he’s making. And what about Andy Greene? Also, do we part with a young winger not named Tedenby (i.e. Palmieri, Zharkov, Henrique) if it means being able to dump Rolston? I’d love to hear your views on these specifics.
Lastly, with the relatively small number of sellers compared to buyers this year, is it possible that the Devils could benefit from waiting till the deadline to make trades? With every transaction, the pool of players that buyers can acquire becomes smaller and smaller. Perhaps this would drive up the price for the last remaining players.
by TheTrapezoidConspiracy on Feb 14, 2011 9:42 PM EST reply actions
Personally, no way do we trade Palmieri, Zharkov, Henrique, Josefson or Tedenby in any type of deal. They all either have too much potential or have at shown that they can handle a significant role on this team. Personally, I think all five of those guys will be permanent roster players on the devils over the next two seasons.
The Clarkson/Zubrus/Greene questions are interesting because I think each player offers something postive to the devils that if traded or not a part of the team next year, would hurt the devils, regardless of the “positive” effect it could have on the salary cap.
by TexasDevilFan on Feb 14, 2011 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
I intentionally said “a young winger not named Tedenby”. I’m not sure Devils fans have come to terms with the fact that unless the team unloads a couple of veteran forwards, one or two of the young players you mentioned will either be forced into a fourth line role, or will linger in the AHL for a while. Neither of those scenarios seem to be optimal for any of those 5 (including Henrique I think) heading into next year.
Consider the following: If we assume that Parise re-signs in the offseason, and that Arnott moves on (both of which I think are reasonable assumptions), the Devils already have most of their forward spots accounted for. The players we can pencil in include Parise, Kovy, Elias, Zajac, Zubrus, Rolston, and Clarkson. The Devils need more centers, so Josefson will be relied on, and it’s hard to imagine Tedenby playing at the AHL level next year. That’s 9 forwards already. If we add in Pelley, that means Zharkov, Palmieri, and Henrique will be fighting for the final two spots on a nightly basis. The thing is, unless Clarkson remains a fourth liner indefinitely, those two spots will be on the fourth line.
Basically, if the Devils don’t unload a veteran forward or two at the deadline (other than Arnott), one of the young forwards may be spending significant time in Albany, and one or two may be playing fourth line minutes. Even if the team makes more room in the game day lineup for the youngens, do we really want to rely on that many inexperienced players on a nightly basis? Unless the team thinks that they need to retain a few of those players for extra depth in case of injury and/or that the development of those forwards will not be stalled by prolonged stays in Albany, I don’t see the point in hanging on to all of those players if we could dump Rolston by shipping one of them off. Hopefully that was clear enough.
by TheTrapezoidConspiracy on Feb 15, 2011 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
Albany in action....
I had a chance to see the Albany Devils in action down here in Charlotte. My question is are the expectations high for Urbom? Big guy, but he was getting cheap-shotted and roughed up quite a bit, with no reaction. I was really impressed with Henrique….and Gionta moves around the ice well. It was the first AHL game that I have seen, and the team just seemed……out of synch. Too much being in the way of your own man…that kind of thing! Still, it was fun to see Devils hockey in any form!
I’m going to start yelling about your use of capgeek space. It’s not exactly correct.
Also, that sports club stats site is terribly inaccurate, the Devils have a much greater chance than 0.1% of making the playoffs.
Arnott should be gone, so tired of his floating. Greene I am not sure, if he’s willing to sign here next year, I’m willing to take the chance on not dealing him. Hedberg should not be dealt, he won’t return anything and the organization is short on goalies.
I’m going to start yelling about your use of capgeek space. It’s not exactly correct.
That’s going to be hard to do over the Internet.
Also, that sports club stats site is terribly inaccurate, the Devils have a much greater chance than 0.1% of making the playoffs.
Then let me present it in another manner. Here’s the current situation.
The Devils are in 13th place in the East, 14 points behind 8th place Carolina. There are 4 teams standing between the two of them of various leads:
9th place Atlanta – 12 pts with 2 games in hand for NJ
10th place Buffalo – 10 pts. with 2 games in hand for Buffalo
11th place Florida – 7 pts with 1 game in hand for Florida
12th place Toronto – 4 pts with same number of games played.
Oh, and the Devils are currently 1 point ahead of the 14th place Isles, who also have the same number of games played.
All of the above 6 teams mentioned have 24-28 games to play for all involved. New Jersey has 26 remaining. Waiting a week to at least decide internally whether to sell or not just bides time. Even if they get all 6 points in this week, they have to hope Buffalo, Atlanta, and Florida also drop points whilst the Isles stay back. New Jersey’s chances die every day any one of those 5 teams keep on winning games to keep ahead even if the Devils continue this hot streak. They die if the Isles get hot and the Devils cool off a bit.
If you want to ignore Sports Club Stats, fine. Arguing over the exact percentage of making the playoffs is splitting hairs anyhow.
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by John Fischer on Feb 14, 2011 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
the isles have nothing to do with anything. in fact, the devils want the isles to start winning a bunch, because it will probably come against the teams they’re actually chasing.
i agree that it’s generally hair-splitting but 0.1% is just not correct based on fenwick/corsi
I think regardless of what happens between now and next sunday, we will not be buyers. Lets say that we miraculously do make the playoffs, we would need to fit in Parise’s contract for the last couple weeks of the season, and adding salary could prevent that.
I think Arnott is the most likely trade candidate since he probably won’t be back next year, is a veteran-cup winning center, and has no contractual obligations beyond next season.
I think Arnott is the most likely trade candidate since he probably won’t be back next year
That may be the case but as the old saying goes : “Never Say Never”
If Arnie feels that this team could’ve been a contender(which they are) had they changed coaches sooner(and traded some dead weight away), he might consider coming back.
hey good article. i think if they are going to move people for cap space, it needs to be people who have contracts beyond this year. the easiest to move would be clarkson and zubrus since they dont have no trade clauses. tallinder doesnt as well, but im not sure lou woud be interested in moving him right now. i think the best type of trade to make is a package deal where they send off a rental type player along with one of these players for something in return. it wouldnt blow up the roster too much.
i think andy greene is an interesting player in this situation. hes a good defenseman with a really low salary so he could be moved to pretty much any team. i think they could get a decent return for him if they have no intention to resign him.
Also i wanted to ask you John, if they move someone like Arnott and clear up a decent amount of space, would you be opposed to someone like josefson being called up? they could afford it within the cap restricitions, and hes going to only have two years left on his deal after this season anyways since hes playing in the ahl.
You have the right idea, but the reality is that no one is going to be lining up for Clarkson or Zubrus. If you could package a Clarkson with a Greene as you suggest above, I would be OK with that but Clarkson’s cap hit makes it tough to do that.
Interested in Andy Greene? Check back on the site in about 10 minutes….
Josefson, because of his contract status won’t be called up. It would likely be Henrique, McIntyre or I wouldn’t be shocked if they gave Zalewski a chance.
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Also i wanted to ask you John, if they move someone like Arnott and clear up a decent amount of space, would you be opposed to someone like josefson being called up?
I’m gonna say yes.
There’s nothing wrong with trading players now or any time before the playoffs. We as Devils fans have been spoiled with the second-longest active playoff run to Detroit, and this team will have a pretty good chance at returning next year (as long as Parise stays). However, I would like to see the Devils keep Hedberg. I don’t know whether he wants to come back next season, but he has the NHL starting experience that is lacking from everyone else in the system. Should Brodeur retire after his contract expires, it would be nice to have Hedberg around as the team slowly develops prospects to take over
Get this : Marty is 38, Hedberg is 37.
Hedberg’s Birthday? May 5th.
Marty’s Birthday? May 6th.
WHOA!!
So they’re both 38 only on May 5th.
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and this team will have a pretty good chance at returning next year (as long as Parise stays).
Not to be a negative Nellie, but this team has been 12-1-2 in their last 15 without Parise. I wouldn’t want to see him go, but the team doesn’t fall back into the MacLean morass if the unlikely and awful scenario of losing Parise does happen. They should still be a playoff team (with the right coach it seems), if the worst should occur.
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cool
then they have 25 more games of overachieving to complete the symmetry.
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If Hedberg does want to go somewhere, then we need to get a goalie so that McKenna isn’t starting if Marty gets hurt again this season. A player I think would be a good trade target would be Cory Schneider of the Canucks. He is younger (25 on 3/18) and cheaper (900k next season). Luongo isn’t going anywhere and everyone knows it. The Canucks also signed Eddie Lack, who is looking good in the AHL. Also, if Hedberg wants to win a cup, then the Canucks look as good as anyone to do so. I don’t know exactly what it would take but it might help us start to transition into a post-Marty era of Devils goaltending.
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