A Possible Roadmap to the Playoffs?
by FrankG929 on Feb 26, 2011 8:56 PM EST
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PrintI'm sure I'm going to take a lot of heat from a few of you for this post, but I think many of the regular readers here will agree that I've been one of the more optimistic people here. Even when things looked the worst, I knew they would somehow turn it around. After making this comment in last night's game recap, I realized that it doesn't have to be as far-fetched as a lot of people think. I'll list the rest of their games and highlight which ones I believe are "must-win" in order to get close to a playoff spot.
OK, right now the Devils have 21 games remaining. As I said in the aforementioned comment, 90 points is the commonly held target for making the playoffs but I believe 86 or 87 will be the number where #8 lands. A 14-3-4 record will get them to 88 points and perhaps be in the hunt for that last spot.
A lot of you are going to say "but they have to pass 5 teams." To that I say, if their record is good enough, that will take care of itself. They should be only 1 point behind Florida after tomorrow's game. Passing Florida is pretty much a given.
So what do the Devils have to do to get that 14-3-4 record? The way I see it, there are 12 "must-win" games remaining. I define must-win as a game against one of the teams they (may) have to pass, or a team behind them in the standings. I've also included the game against Montreal because right now they're only 1 point ahead of the Rangers and they always play the Habs well, so now more than ever, they need to do so.
4th quarter tally - 4-0-0.
Must-win Games:
2/27 @Florida - Win
3/6 @NY Islanders - Win
3/8 v. Ottawa - Loss
3/11 @Atlanta - Win
3/12 v. NY Islanders - Win
3/15 v. Atlanta - Win
3/17 @Ottawa - Loss
3/26 @Buffalo
3/30 v. NY Islanders
4/2 v. Montreal
4/6 v. Toronto
4/9 @NY Rangers
That leaves 9 games against teams that are currently safely in a playoff spot and would have to fall apart completely to fall out of the picture (although the Canadiens and Rangers are pretty close to that "locked-in" idea.) 5 of those are at home, so winning a couple of them doesn't have to be a stretch:
3/2 v. Tampa Bay - Win
3/4 v. Pittsburgh - Win
3/18 v. Washington - Loss
3/20 @Columbus - Win
3/22 @Boston - Loss
3/25 @Pittsburgh
4/1 v. Philadelphia
4/5 @Pittsburgh
4/10 v. Boston
If (and of course that's a big if) they can win the games they're "supposed to;" that requires a 2-3-4 record in these 9 games to reach my target of 88 points. I'll take them one at a time.
v. Tampa Bay - The Devils were outplayed by the Lightning for much of the game last night and still only lost by 1. I'm going to put this one in the win column. Right
v. Pittsburgh - The Penguins are 2-6-2 in their last 10 games. Without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, they are definitely beatable. Count this one in the victory column too. Right
v. Washington - Before the Rangers absolutely undressed them last night, I would have put this one in the loss column. I think they may have a chance to win this one, but let's not be more aggressive than we have to be and call this one an OT loss. Half Right, loss, but not in OT.
@Columbus - Columbus is hot, on the road. Let's call this a loss. We're at 2-1-1 so far. Wrong: win, 3-1 for these games.
@Boston - The Bruins are 6-4 in their last 10. Not turning many heads. But it's on the road so I'll call this one an OTL too. Half Right, loss, but not in OT, 3-2
@Pittsburgh - They lost the only other road game in Pittsburgh 2-1 in early December. They should be able to keep it close. OTL again. A fairly tough road trip. 2-1-3 if you're not counting.
v. Philadelphia - It may be home, but Philly has been one of the top teams all season. They lose this one.
@Pittsburgh - Their luck in Pittsburgh runs out. Crosby's probably back for this one. Loss, 2-3-3.
v. Boston - Last game of the season. If there's even a glimmer of hope left for the playoffs, the Devils should be up for this game. Boston may be fighting for a division championship. Tough game, since I was aiming for 2-3-4, let's go OTL with this one as well.
So, the Devils have a bunch of games that they almost absolutely have to win to keep the playoff hopes alive. They have a slight minority of games that nobody could really fault them should they lose, but if they can be competitive in these games, 88 points is a possibility. Turn the last game of the season against Boston into a win, and 89 points is obtained, likely right on the cusp of the playoffs.
Possible? I think so. Only time will tell if it's good enough.
All FanPosts and FanShots are the respective work of the author and not representative of the writers or other users of In Lou We Trust.
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Tommorow night’s game is beyond huge and could determine the direction Lou goes in the next 36 hrs. The way we’ve been going, we could actually pull this off with a lot of help.
The fan in me wants to play this thing out and see what happens. The realist in me says build for the future. Right now, the fan is winning, but that could change by 8pm tomorrow.
I think some of those OTL and Losses you listed won’t go down that way unless the devils are short players due to trades before the deadline. Why would you think washington could beat us? I don’t believe that will occur. Pittsburgh won’t defeat us twice and Crosby will NOT be back until the playoffs at least. I believe we can run a 17-4-0 stretch and make the 90 points. Lets not forget, we could lose 8 games in OT and still make the 90 points. Anything is Possible right now, just think 13-0-8 is not hard to achieve the way the devils have been playing. Let’s just see how the Florida game unfolds…
I didn’t want to be overly optimistic. If I said they’d win all the games and make the playoffs, then my position is not believable. I wanted to show that less than perfect (and winning 2 out of 3, albeit some in OT), is about as low as one can expect the Devils to perform and still get close.
And I’m sure at least a third of my guesses will be wrong. Hopefully as many will be wrong where they win as where they lose. My whole point was to show perfection isn’t necessary.
Go Devils Playoff Death Watch
"Hope Is a Good Thing, Maybe the Best of Things, and No Good Thing Ever Dies." - Andy Dufresne – The Shawshank Redemption
Go Jets
I am a believer.
However, I don’t agree with some of your picks. Like Lord Kyrus said, I think we can pull away with some wins out of those OTL you listed.
Let’s see if we can win all of those “must win” games first. Right now I’m waiting on what will happen after the loss to Tampa and Marty back in net. I think tomorrow’s game will determine a good chunk of the future.
By the way, does the loss to Tampa mean bye bye Arnott? Haha…
With the team playing better, I would hope this team goes into each game believing they can win, no matter the opponent. The question is, really, can they bring a consistently great effort night-in and night-out without slipping in consecutive games for the rest of the season? Even bringing a great effort doesn’t always get you a win, and at that point you really need some good bounces, which they’ve gotten during this streak.
The schedule certainly favors the Devils, but there is no margin for error for this team to let down for 3 games. They’ll have to continue playing like the hottest team in the league. To put that in perspective, they’ll have been so hot for so long that they will have lost just 9-10 games in the second half of the season – a hot streak of about 31-6-4 over the last 41 games. It’s just not sustainable
Too many OTL games
We have four overtime losses in 62 games. How can we possibly double that number in the final 20 games? I would just go ahead and split those 4 OTL games into 2 wins and 2 losses. It’s easier to sort everything out if you ignore the 3-point games.
Really gone tell the tale if they win the next game. If they can return the favor to Tampa and deal them a defeat, than were pretty much back on track and pushing forward as powerful as ever. Would mean the Tampa loss was more a speed bump than anything eles. I am still yet to ever doubt in the new jersey devils playoff push. Besides I don’t really believe we would get 8 OTL in the final 20 games, but it makes for a interesting fact to take into consideration. We’re Not as bad off as some people think. 27 points back and now down to 9… we cut it back to a third in just 20 games. Why can’t we make 9 points up in the last 20 games?
Keeping this updated
Go Devils Playoff Death Watch
"Hope Is a Good Thing, Maybe the Best of Things, and No Good Thing Ever Dies." - Andy Dufresne – The Shawshank Redemption
Go Jets
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