The Ilya Kovalchuk Trade: One Year Later

by Kevin Sellathamby on Feb 4, 2011 2:39 PM EST in What Do You Think?

One year ago from today, the Devils traded Niclas Bergfors, Johnny Oduya, Patrice Cormier, their 2010 first round draft pick and their 2010 second round draft pick to the Atlanta Thrashers for Ilya Kovalchuk, Anssi Salmela and the Thrashers' 2010 second round draft pick. After that, everyone knows the story- The Devils went to the first round and got ousted by the Flyers, and the Thrashers missed the playoffs. Then afterwards, there was the whole saga with the signing of Ilya Kovalchuk, first the 17 year contract and it's rejection, then the 15 year contract, then the horrible season Kovalchuk is having (Thanks alot, MacLean!). A year later, most people think that the Devils lost the Ilya Kovalchuk trade because of the terrible season (Again, thanks alot MacLean!) Kovalchuk and the Devils are having, and the fact that the Thrashers are having a good season. With this in mind, many pundits and bloggers are looking back at the trade and claiming Atlanta has won because of the Thrashers being able to succeed without Kovalchuk, and Kovalchuk "dragging" the Devils down (when all signs point to MacLean being the root cause of all the problems). I'm going to look at the trade myself, to see if the Thrashers won, the Devils won or if it's too early to say who won.

First off, lets look at the players involved in the trade since the trade, and their stats

Player	GP	Goals	Assists	Points	Shooting %
Ilya Kovalchuk (reg. Season)	77	25	33	58	9.8%
Ilya Kovalchuk (Playoffs)	5	2	4	6	10.5%
Anssi Salmela	26	1	4	5	2.7%
Niclas Bergfors	70	18	27	45	10.8%
Johnny Oduya	81	3	20	23	3.4%
Patrice Cormier(NHL)	16	1	1	2	5.6%
Patrice Cormier (AHL)	11	2	3	5	13.3%

First and Foremost, i'll look at Ilya Kovalchuk, the biggest component of the trade. Over the year, Kovalchuk's played about a full season's worth of hockey. For someone like Kovalchuk, yes, 25 goals and 68 points is pretty underwhelming seeing as he's scored at least 40 goals in the last six seasons. Over an 82 game season, that would be about 27 goals, 35 assists and 72 points. If you look at his stats from the end of the 2009-2010 season (10-17-27 in 27 GP), he would've been on pace for about 30-52-82 in an 82 game season, assuming if he was able to stay healthy/avoid suspensions/not getting benched by incompetent head coaches. While 30 goals might be his 2nd lowest career total in goals, his 52 assists would be a career high and he'd have a point-per-game average, which is a bit lower than his career points per game (673 points in 671 games, or 1.002 PPG).

Looking at Kovalchuk's stat line this season (15-16-31 in 50 GP), he'd be on pace to have a stat line of 24-26-50 over 81 games (counting the game where he was scratched /shakes fist at MacLame for the Nth time), the lowest of his career. If you ignore John MacLame's reign as head coach and his vampiric ability to suck the talent out of any hockey player (for those interested, he went 9-9-18 in 32 games under MacLame, which would be projected to about 23-23-46 over an 82 game season) , Kovalchuk has a stat line of 6-7-13 in 18 games under interim Jacques Lemaire. Over an 82 game season , he'd have a projected stat line of 27-32-59, the second lowest point total in his career and lowest goal total, assuming if he was able to stay healthy/avoid suspensions/not getting benched by incompetent head coaches. Kovalchuk is still under contract for the next 14 years.

Now for the other guy going to the Devils- Anssi Salmela. He wasn't too bad in 2009-2010, but he also had to deal with injuries and being scratched pretty often. He missed most of this season due to a knee injury suffered in the world championships, and was only available for 3 of the Devils games under MacLame's reign. The Devils are 6-10-1 with Salmela in the lineup, averaging 2.88 goals against/game, which is slightly lower than their 2.90 GA/G for the season, but higher than the 2.56 GA/G the Devils have right now under Lemaire. His offensive numbers aren't that great, despite starting in the offensive zone 52.3%.

Now for the Thrashers- First up is Niclas Bergfors, the talented rookie forward. in 70 games with the Thrashers, he's gone 18-27-45, which should be about 21-32-53 over 82 games. In 2009-2010, he went 8-9-17 in 27 games w/ Atlanta, which would've projected to 24-27-51 over 82 games. With Atlanta this season, he went 10-18-28 in 43 games (missed 11 games as a scratch), so he'd project to 19-34-53 over 82 games (or 16-30-46 over 71 games if you consider the games he missed). Bergfors is an RFA at season's end and was reportedly being shopped earlier this season.

The second component of the trade was Johnny Oduya. Points wise, 23 points over an 82 games is alright, considering he has a different role on the team. In New Jersey, he ended up being one of the more important offensive defensemen due to his contributions on the blueline. In Atlanta, he's not needed nearly as much offensively as the Thrashers have a pair of excellent offensive defensemen in Dustin Byfuglien and Tobias Enstrom. However, Oduya has been used quite abit in a defensive role, as he faces the 4th toughest competition amongst Thrashers defensemen** and has an offensive zone start of 41.6%, the lowest amongst Thrashers defensemen. Oduya has managed to stay healthy this season, and has played in all 54 games for the Thrashers. The only knock on him- he hasn't really done much to help the Thrashers reduce their 3.11 GA/G (24th in the league) and 34.2 SA/G (29th in the league). Oduya is signed through 2011-2012.

The 3rd part of this trade was Patrice Cormier- former Captain of Team Canada's world junior team, and more well known for his elbow on Mikael Tam which got him suspended from the QMJHL. At even strength, Cormier has been playing most of the time with Bryan Litte and Anthony Stewart according to DobberHockey's line combination tool. It might be a little too early to pass judgement on Cormier though, as he's only played 16 NHL games. Cormier is on an ELC and goes RFA at the end of the 2012-2013 season.

As for the Draft Picks, The Thrashers traded their picks (along with a few others) to acquire Dustin Byfuglien, Brent Sopel, Akim Aliu and Ben Eager. Byfuglien became an all-star after being moved back to defense and Sopel's been serviceable for the Thrashers (although still abit pricey). As for Eager, he didn't really fit in well with the Thrashers and was traded to the San Jose Sharks for a 5th round draft pick. Aliu, while considered talented, wasn't able to perform at the AHL level and was demoted to the ECHL, where he's picked up his game.

As for the Devils pick they recieved (38th overall), the Devils used that pick to draft Jon Merrill. Merrill's performances at the WJC and at Michigan have allowed him to rocket to the top of many prospect lists, as Hockeysfuture ranks him at #4 on their top 20 prospects, and he's at the #1 position on ILWT's Top 20 prospects.

Conclusions

While many feel that the Devils lost the trade due to Kovalchuk and the Devils' performance this season (Thanks alot, MacLame!), and the fact that the Thrashers are a playoff team and succeeding without him is what really makes everyone think the Devils lost the trade. If you ask me, it's too early to pass judgement. What if the Devils had a competent head coach? Would Kovalchuk have put up such pathetic numbers? If 2010-11 turns out to be an outlier for Kovalchuk, people might change their opinions on the trade. Also, many people have a tendency to forget about the Devils using the Thrashers 2nd rounder to draft Jon Merrill, who could potentially be a solid NHL defenseman. With that being said, the Thrashers were able to turn a 50 goal scorer into an all-star defenseman (Byfuglien), a talented but somewhat enigmatic winger (Bergfors), some role players (Sopel, Oduya, Cormier) and a promising prospect of their own (Aliu) and could be going to the Playoffs for the first time in three years.Personally, I feel it's too early to say who won the trade because of the circumstances involving Kovalchuk's numbers. I'd wait one more year to see if Kovalchuk continues his mediocrity, or if he regresses to the mean before claiming the Thrashers won the trade.

What do you guys think of the trade? Did the Thrashers win the trade? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments, and thanks for reading.

*I wasn't able to find info on Cormier's shooting %

**Behind the Net does not list Byfuglien as a Defenseman.

Poll

a year later, what do you think about the Kovalchuk trade?

Devils Won

111 votes

Thrashers Won

51 votes

It's too early to judge

179 votes

341 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Any time you’re restricted in the number of contributing pieces you can use at any one time, like in hockey, you want to get the most out of each individual piece.

In that respect, I think Kovalchuk is worth a Bergfors, Oduya and Cormier; however it is too early to say who “won” the deal. Really, if both teams improved because of it, then they both “won.”

by elesias on Feb 4, 2011 3:10 PM EST reply actions

I think this one should be a win-win for both teams.

For us, well, this year is an aberration for the team as a whole, so it’s not a good point of judgment. However he did have solid production in his time here last season and was one of the few who showed up in the playoffs (especially when compared to Captain Grumpypants).

Bergfors wasn’t going to ever really fit into a Lemaire team and I think he was at about his wall of potential with the franchise, and with Teddy and Josefson in the wings and several veteran wings already on the team, Bergfors would likely have seen limited time on the fourth line, and as it is he’s getting scratched a good deal of the team in Atlanta.

Oduya, well, my fiancée wasn’t happy to see him go, but I was. He played himself to a pretty nice raise and then decided to play down to his old salary. I have often thought of Clarkson this year as Oduya v 2.0. We’re just as well off paying Fayne around league minimum as we would have been paying Oduya a $3.5M cap hit.

Cormier had a cloud hanging over his head after doing his best Pronger impression, and I was happy to see that shadow cast off of the Devils.

Atlanta of course got a lot for an asset that would likely have been gone in the offseason, especially with what they were able to turn those draft picks into. I think their wheeling and dealing of those picks is what gives them the greatest part of their side of the win.

So this is what it's like to be an Islanders fan...

FIre John MacLean

by Marty 4 Prez on Feb 4, 2011 3:45 PM EST reply actions

I always hesitate to analyze deals like this, especially when the player signs a contract afterward.

Regardless, the only things the Devils might regret giving up are Bergfors and the 1st round pick. Bergfors is a nice player who’s doing reasonably well in Atlanta. The 1st round pick could’ve become something nice.

Cormier may become a good player, but one of those centers probably had to go. He has the lowest upside of the 3. He’ll almost certainly be a long-time NHL player, but how good he is is anyone’s guess. His top end is probably something like Paul Gaustad.

Oduya’s contract was clearly a negative, so getting rid of him was a fine move. He has really struggled in Atlanta, though he’s been given noting to work with.

Even with Kovalchuk’s recent scoring burst, he and his linemates are still shooting like a 4th liner s% on-ice wise. I don’t foresee that continuing into 2012. When it subsides, hopefully we’ll see the 35-40 goal Kovalchuk return.

by Triumph44 on Feb 4, 2011 4:29 PM EST reply actions

1st rounder

One of the parts of the trade I really liked was the swap of 2nd round picks. If we kept our #1, I think we still may have selected Merrill. At the very least, I don’t think we would have gotten a better player. That softend the trade cost a bit, especially considering our record drafting in the 2nd round and later.

by NJHockey8 on Feb 4, 2011 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

As I continue to write Lou Lamoriello off long-term, but also realize that he won’t be around forever, some people brought to my attention that as much as Vanderbeek wanted this player, he probably told Lou to think about his legacy. He’s implimented a defensive system, and it’s worked, but now, Lou can go out knowing he brought New Jersey a dynamic superstar. Say what you want about his season (25 G, 33 A, 58 PTS in 77 regular season games with NJ), and his brief Devils career so far, but he’s added an element that is hard to find. Ilya has bought into the system and learned to play more of a 2-way game. Eventually, his stats will indicate his improved work ethic. He’s had a lot to deal with, from the change of scenery to the new system to not being the only star to the playoff critics to the summer that never ended to another coaching casualty and back to Lemaire’s system. That’s a lot of “stuff” to deal with, and I believe four or five years from now, Ilya will have at least one or two 40-goal seasons under his belt with the Devils, hopefully with Parise, and the Devils will have the foundation of a championship team.

DownGoesAvery. Check out my sarcastic/comedic blog: Down Goes Avery and on Twitter (@DownGoesAvery ).

by DownGoesAvery on Feb 4, 2011 4:47 PM EST reply actions

Please ignore my comments on Lou. Whether he’s here another year or 10, that’s irrelevant.

DownGoesAvery. Check out my sarcastic/comedic blog: Down Goes Avery and on Twitter (@DownGoesAvery ).

by DownGoesAvery on Feb 4, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions

MacLean

I’m a bit uncomfortable with insulting MacLean this much – he wasn’t a good coach, and he hurt the team, but he also gave many good years to the team, including helping us get to our first cup.

by pgrmdave on Feb 4, 2011 5:05 PM EST reply actions

Ondrej Pavelec Stats

2009-2010
GP: 42
W: 14
L: 18
OT: 0
SO: 0
SV%: .906
GAA: 3.29

2010-2011 (not over yet obvioulsy)
GP: 40
W: 17
L: 14
OT: 7
SO: 3
SV%: .925
GAA: 2.49

These numbers speak for themselves

by Elektrostal_Kid on Feb 4, 2011 5:06 PM EST reply actions

I think the Devils won this for one reason – they resigned him to a long term deal at a great cap hit.

The Thrashers did a lot to get where that team is now. They also gave up Reasoner and Joey Crabb (and some prospect) to get Buff, Sopel, and Aliu. (So they lose Kovalchuk, Salmela, Reason, Crabb, a prospect, and a 2nd, for Buff, Bergs, Oduya, Sopel and Aliu).

In Lou We Trust: SBN Blog of the New Jersey Devils
"Hockey is the only job I know where you get paid to have a nap on the day of the game." - Chico Resch

by Matthew Ventolo on Feb 4, 2011 5:08 PM EST reply actions

Another missing piece....

…. when evaluating the Thrashers’ side of the deal, I’d look at what they did with the cap space and draft picks (both their own and the ones they got from NJ). Those assets were turned into Andrew Ladd and Dustin Byfuglien.

As with any significant deal that involves trading established players for prospects and picks, one year isn’t really a reliable window by which to judge the deal…. the same logic that applies to draft classes. Two years from now, we’ll have a better idea, and four or six or ten years from now an even better one.

Right now, I’d say the early returns say both sides came out pretty well. NJ got Kovalchuk and managed to re-sign him despite the best efforts of many parties who objected to an Ilya-NJ marriage. Atlanta has three contributing pieces (Oduya, Ladd, Byfuglien) for a player they weren’t going to re-sign, with the jury still out on what Nicklas Bergfors will end up becoming.

Ask me in a few years, however, and I’ll probably have a different answer.

by acasser on Feb 4, 2011 5:26 PM EST reply actions

I think the cap space is a non-issue given the amount of cap space the Thrashers have. Even with Kovalchuk at $6.67, they could have added Byfuglien and Ladd and still had $10M in space remaining. And I don’t think ownership was averse to spending more than they have to this point – they offered Ilya $100M over 12 yrs – but they have chosen not to spend their cap space for the sake of spending. Point is – if they could have signed Ilya they would have, and they would probably have made the same moves they did anyway. It was a great opportunity, with Chicago’s cap situation.

by dr(d)evil on Feb 4, 2011 5:40 PM EST up reply actions

Response to this and Matthew’s comment below.

The Thrashers are at or near the cap floor, are they not? They’d have had to spend the cap space that Kovalchuk would have otherwise occupied just to make the league minimum, which is why I brought up Byfuglien and Ladd. I imagine they would have considered the trades even if Ilya Kovalchuk were going to be on their roster this season, but they wouldn’t have been obliged to add salary. The salary/cap hit of those two players roughly replaces the salary/cap hit of Kovy.

Perhaps Atlanta still makes the same trades if Kovalchuk is on their roster, and perhaps they don’t. I don’t believe that they would have made at least the Byfuglien trade without the extra draft picks from the Kovalchuk trade, because that would have meant giving up all their high-round picks …. and that’s not something a “rebuilding” team is wont to do — especially for a questionable talent like Byfuglien…. this season aside, it would have been very dubious to trade two high picks for him.

Ladd was acquired on July 1st, but his cap hit also allows Atlanta to exceed the Lower Limit. If they aren’t obliged to take on salary, perhaps they don’t make that trade, either.

Anyway, to sum up my point of view…. I’m assuming that Atlanta doesn’t make one or both of the trades with Chicago if they’re paying Ilya Kovalchuk $6 million (the first Devils’ deal) or $8.4 million (the figure he turned down from Atlanta) and adding the move as an “in context” consideration to the Kovalchuk trade. While it wasn’t a part of the Atl/NJ transaction, I believe it was a direct result of the trade and something to keep in mind.

by acasser on Feb 5, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions

Wasn’t Ladd traded to Atlanta a week after the Buff trade? I think that trade is irrelevant here. The 2nd round pick is for this coming draft and doesn’t involve anything Jersey did with Atlanta.

In Lou We Trust: SBN Blog of the New Jersey Devils
"Hockey is the only job I know where you get paid to have a nap on the day of the game." - Chico Resch

by Matthew Ventolo on Feb 4, 2011 5:46 PM EST up reply actions

While Ilya has been frustratingly slow to adjust to life as a Devil, I still think he’s worth more than the sum of what we gave up, hands down. I don’t miss any of those players. In today’s NHL cap hit is a burden players come with. The real question for us is not whether Kovalchuk outperforms the players he was traded for, but rather if he performs well enough to justify his cap hit. I still think he’s got a ways to go, but he’s certainly been coming around lately. If/when he gets back into that 35-40 goal, 80-90 point range, the trade will have been worth it for us.

1995 - 2000 - 2003

by bergenline on Feb 4, 2011 6:19 PM EST reply actions

Also, I voted “too early to judge” because the team has been in extended funk since before Kovy was brought in. Things have been looking up recently, and hopefully next season will be started off on the right foot, and with all hands on deck. Virtually everyone on the Devils has terrible stats this year, save for Elias, who’s numbers are merely below average.

1995 - 2000 - 2003

by bergenline on Feb 4, 2011 6:24 PM EST up reply actions

A Thrashers' fan's take

Sorry for being late here, but I really haven’t had time to keep up with the Devils as the Thrashers are my team.

My view:
Bergfors – A bitter and prolonged holdout seem to have basically made both sides angry. It’s hard to imagine Bergfors being here long term. Many fans think he’s just biding his time until he is traded. A guy I know who met Bergfors in person told me that Bergfors is, shall we say, “eccentric”. You need to read between the lines here.

Oduya – Played over his head after the trade, but has been very up and down this season. Mostly playing with Zach Bogosian, the local problem child, and like everyone not named Toby Enstrom has found playing Bogosian to be dragging him down. In my opinion Oduya is overpaid for what he does, even when he’s good, and will not be re-signed when his contract expires at the end of next season.

Cormier – In a move of brazen stupidity was oversold to the local fans as a guaranteed top 6 forward and point producer by Rick Dudley. He’s actually a solid but offensively challenged bottom 6 forward. Many fans have strongly negative feelings about him now because basically Dudley lied and they believed it. Trust me, you do NOT miss having Cormier. He could not help you right now.

The only guy in that bunch you MIGHT wish you still had is Bergfors. Honestly, I’m not seeing how you don’t win the trade, although at least it’s a better deal for us than the bag of crap we got for Hossa.

by Zontar on Feb 11, 2011 11:09 AM EST reply actions