2011 Offseason: Can the Devils Replace Andy Greene From Within? Part 3 - Scoring & PDO
by John Fischer on Apr 30, 2011 5:00 PM EDT
in Devils Issues, Views & Analysis
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PrintOne of the biggest questions the New Jersey Devils will have to deal with in this coming offseason is figuring out what to do with Andy Greene. The 28-year old defenseman is in line to get raise of sorts this summer. With the Devils' own cap issues, retaining him or signing a UFA defenseman in replacement may not be the wisest of moves. Therefore, it's important to ask the question of whether the Devils can really replace Greene from within.
In Part 1, I looked at the 5-on-5 on-ice and off-ice stats for Greene and nine other Devils defenseman from last season to see how stacked up. He didn't look too good compared to his teammates. In Part 2, I focused on Corsi: relative to quality of competition, relative to quality teammates, adjusted for zone starts, and just straight up on-ice Corsi. Again, Greene was not high up any of the groups. The underlying numbers at 5-on-5 in both posts suggest that Greene is replaceable.
Today, I want to take a short look at scoring and PDO. While production shouldn't be taken as the only way to measure a player's effectiveness, especially a defenseman, it can't be ignored. After all, if we're expecting someone to be a two-way defenseman or an offensive defenseman, then there has to be some level of production achieved. I'm also including PDO to highlight the on-ice shooting percentage and save percentage for each player at 5-on-5. PDO tends to regress to a player's true mean over time, and for a team it's usually around 10000. So those below 1000 suggests that the player may have suffered from some bad luck. Unsurprisingly, most of the Devils defense was on the wrong side of this value in this past season. Both of this will come after the jump.
Devils Defensemen by Scoring
This is where Greene does sparkle on the Devils, outside of having a high time-on-ice per 60 rate at 5-on-5. He's the leader on the blueline in total assists and total points; and just behind Henrik Tallinder in goals and shots on net. The power play production is just bad all around, but again, Greene leads it here. (Incidentally, Tallinder had a shorthanded goal and Colin White had a short handed assist. Meaning: what you see here is mostly even strength - and low.)
To be fair, 23 points is not a lot in an 82-game season. However, 23 points would be a career high for any of the other nine defenseman on this list. Henrik Tallinder's career high is 21; Colin White's high is 20; and Anton Volchenkov's high is 19. To use a phrase: In the valley of the blind, the man with one eye is king. Greene's got one eye, at least.
Devils Defensemen by PDO
Greene's near the bottom of the list and this is actually a very good thing for him. What this tells me is that Greene has been very unfortunate last season, more so than his teammates. He played a lot of minutes and in playing them, his team struggled mightily to score and the goaltending behind him wasn't all that great. I wouldn't fault Greene for this, nor would I . Players alone won't have a large impact on a team's shooting percentage, as Tyler Dellow found back in 2008. He might have some contribution to that low save percentage by way of bad defending leading to goals against; but that will show up as I review the goals against from this past season. I'm a little skeptical of that though. Either way, whoever signs Greene is going to benefit from both values regressing upwards. If only because I highly doubt the team he'll be on in 2011-12 will be so bad at shooting that it will be below 6%. It wasn't the case in the last two seasons.
In the bigger picture, I'd keep an eye on Fayne. When he was out there, the goaltending was strong and the Devils actually shot at a percentage around league average. A PDO 1009 isn't particularly high, but since Fayne is coming off a rookie season, we really don't know his true mean. Hopefully 2011-12 won't lead to a gigantic drop off. Still, it may be an indication that even if he gets even better fortune in the future, Fayne may not yield a higher rate of points. That will likely come with further development and, more importantly, more minutes and games.
Commentary So Far
Among other areas, production is the biggest concern I currently have over replacing Greene from within. Who will honestly step up to provide similar or better points? Can we expect Mark Fayne, who's coming off a rookie season, to do so? Can we realistically hope Henrik Tallinder can hit a career high? Can we expect Matt Taormina and Anssi Salmela to chip in, should they be in the picture next season? My current answer to all of these questions is a worrisome, "I don't know."
At the same time, I have to question whether or not the cause for the defensemen putting up paltry points last season was that the entire team struggled to score goals last season. They weren't good on the power play, and the team were miserable shooters at 5-on-5. If the forwards aren't scoring, then it's going to be difficult for the defensemen to pick up the slack and/or rack up assists. If the power play unit is going with five forwards, then defensemen can't benefit in those situations. They certainly couldn't last season.
Then again, that may have been intentional. The current group of defensemen won't be confused as being serious two-way threats. As noted earlier, Tallinder, White, and Volchenkov have never been successful in production. The rest of the group aside from Greene are young unknowns (Fayne, Taormina) or largely nonfactors on offense (Matthew Corrente, Mark Fraser, Olivier Magnan). It could be that last season's power play featured so many forwards because none of the defenders had the skills or mindset on the attack as a fourth or fifth forward would in the eyes of the coaches. It's a chicken-or-the-egg scenario in my opinion.
All the same, if the team as a whole shot better, then everyone's production would have been boosted by some degree. As the PDO chart showed, the Devils were below average or worse in terms of 5-on-5 shooting percentage. The goaltending could have been better for some (e.g. Greene, Tallinder, Corrente, Volchenkov); but it's that shooting percentage that really sticks out for not being all that high. While it's out of his control, luck may lead to a better value next season for Greene - which may coincide with a more productive season, something the Devils blueline really miss if Greene walks.
What do you make of the team's scoring? Surprised to see the PDO so low for Greene? Please leave your thoughts on Greene, the other 9 Devils defenseman, and the larger question asked in the comments. Part 4 will focus on special teams, though that may not come for a few days. All the same, thanks for reading.
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This has been a great series, John. I like Fayne and Taormina in the long run, though I have my doubts that Taormina will be an all-situations D. If the Devils decide to make his shot a significant part of their powerplay, he could be a big piece of the puzzle very soon.
Does he call it Luongo underwear?
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Apr 30, 2011 5:26 PM EDT reply actions
Different posts, different stats, but the ideas that get hashed over in the comments largely remain the same. The bottom line is that letting Andy Greene walk is placing a bet, taking a calculated risk, on the kids that will take his ice time, and the only question is how much you’re willing to pay Greene to avoid that risk.
Tallinder, White, and Volchenkov will be on the blueline next season.
Fayne, Taormina, and Urbom will be in the mix to not only be in the lineup, but potentially receive big ice time.
Corrente, Salmela, and Fraser may also be in the mix but none of them are likely to play a whole lot.
If this team has to run for an extended period of time with two veteran defensemen and four kids, I think this team will be in danger of missing the playoffs again – all it takes is one injury. I’d feel a lot more secure having Greene back so that we don’t have to have Corrente, Salmela, or Fraser on the NHL roster when healthy, so that none of those three would need to play if one injury were to occur, and so that they only need to be given limited minutes if two defensemen go down with injury.
When it comes to how much, I’d be willing to pay as much as 2 yrs, $5M or 3 yrs, $7M for that peace of mind. I think he is still very tradeable with that kind of contract and we can make it fit under the cap this coming season. Is it overpayment? Probably, and obviously like to see a much lower cap number. But I really think we’re asking for another catastrophic result if he, or a defender like him, isn’t acquired.
Salvador’s health is a big question mark, but even if he were healthy I’m not sure he’d crack the lineup. He hasn’t played in a year and doesn’t bring any of the offensive element the team needs from the blueline.
I suspect that if Bryce Salvador is truly healthy and gets a clean bill of health from the doctors, he will be on the team next season…. unless Lou finds someone willing to take him in trade. I also suspect that Salvador’s health and projections of the same will impact how high Lou Lamorello is willing to bid for Andy Greene — I imagine last season’s cap near-catastrophe will not be repeated if at all possible.
Whether or not Salvador is “truly healthy” is open to debate. Sure, we’ve heard all sorts of encouraging things about his recovery, but a concussion is a concussion. When one looks at all the stories that have come out of Pittsburgh recently about Crosby’s setbacks, I find it difficult to believe all the positive press about Bryce Salvador.
Salvador’s lack of “offensive upside” won’t enter the decision-making process. While it might not be an ideal solution, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Devils’ braintrust gave some combiantion of Urbom, Taormina, Corrente, a budget veteran signee/tryout, and “insert your favorite defensive prospect here” the opportunity to fill Greene’s role and numbers, with Salvador holding down the other half of that defensive pairing. Should no one step up and take advantage of that opportunity, there are always veteran defensemen to be rented through the trade market.
The Devils wouldn’t be so much looking to replace Greene’s offensive numbers as they would be looking to have someone filling his minutes on the blue line. Offense would be nice, but it isn’t mandatory. Other players would be expected to expand their roles and provide some of the missing spark — e.g. Mark Fayne.
….
Disclaimer: Don’t take my above statements as an implication that Greene will be gone. I don’t know if he will be, and none of the rest of us do, either. I’m just saying that Salvador’s situation impacts Greene’s situation, and management may see one as the “replacement” for the other even if they don’t bring a similar skillset to the table.
If Salvador is healthy, he should be bought out. There’s no way he’s worth $2.9 million. If they don’t have the heart to send him to the minors, dispose of him that way.
I am 100% against buying people out, because I despise having “dead” cap space in a situation where it hurts a team. Considering the Devils are one of those teams who spends to the cap, every dollar of “dead space” is room that can’t be used on a player who can help the team. I’d sooner bury Salvador in Albany or finagle an excuse to stash him back on LTIR.
If one recalls the NFL before the salary cap rose so high as to be meaningless (before it disappeared entirely last season), one would see teams go through a boom/bust cycle. They’d use signing bonuses and backloaded/non-guaranteed contracts to cram a ton of talent onto their roster and push the limits of a very soft salary cap while their “championship window was open”…. only for the whole process to eventually catch up to them. Then they’d release a ton of veterans, absorb a hideous amount of “dead space” on their salary caps when the signing bonuses accelerated onto the current year’s cap (under the rules of the NFL CBA), and the team would suck for a year or two while they were in “cap purgatory”.
The point of my little aside that was the previous paragraph? I don’t want the Devils to use buy-outs as a way to try and finesse the cap to stash more talent onto the roster. There’s a short-term benefit because it frees up some space in the present season…. but the dead space sticks around for longer and leaves a team dealing with the after-effects.
I am 100% against buying people out, because I despise having "dead" cap space in a situation where it hurts a team. Considering the Devils are one of those teams who spends to the cap, every dollar of "dead space" is room that can’t be used on a player who can help the team. I’d sooner bury Salvador in Albany or finagle an excuse to stash him back on LTIR
After 2012, NJ loses a ton of salary, much of it dead money. This really isn’t a concern of mine.
If Salvador were a malingerer, fine, send him to the minors. But the guy’s worked hard his entire career and this is probably his last shot to play in the NHL. The Devils bought out Pandolfo in part out of respect (and probably to save some money), and I think they’d do the same for Salvador. The Devils would buy themselves nearly $2 million in cap room this year and -$950,000 next year. But next year it’s hard to imagine the Devils being a cap team.
The point of my little aside that was the previous paragraph? I don’t want the Devils to use buy-outs as a way to try and finesse the cap to stash more talent onto the roster. There’s a short-term benefit because it frees up some space in the present season…. but the dead space sticks around for longer and leaves a team dealing with the after-effects.
The situations aren’t analogous at all. In the NFL, the issue was both that the backloaded bonuses drove down one’s available cap room right when the players were also aging out of effectiveness. Buying out players isn’t the best solution, but it keeps a team from the awkward scenario where everyone knows a certain player is going to the minor leagues, almost regardless of what they do. I think that’s fine when it’s Wade Redden, but not fine when it’s Bryce Salvador.
Salvador doesn’t deserve to get automatically sent to the minors, but even if he’s bought out, will he be able to get an NHL job? Neither Pandolfo nor Peters were, so in fact both did worse by being bought out – they only received 2/3 of the money they would have had they stuck with the Devils and played in Albany from the buyout and their AHL salary probably wasn’t enough to make up the difference.
If Salvador’s going to ask to be bought out, he’ll lose money unless he gets an NHL job that pays at least $1M. My guess is that he won’t get signed to a contract immediately, but will have to try out with a team first to prove he can still play without ill effects, and that he hasn’t lost too much from the 1+ year layoff. I doubt, even then, that he gets $1M because beyond cap issues, if he goes on LTIR again he still has to be paid. Maybe he gets someone to bite on a league-minimum contract, but he’s losing about $500K compared to if he had just stayed with the Devils.
No NHL player likes playing in the AHL, but $500K is enough to pay for two kids’ private college education. He can still go to Albany and prove his worth, but at least if he suffers another concussion and has to cut his career short he has that money in the bank. Getting bought out is seeing $1M fly out the window and facing the very real possibility that he ends up in the AHL anyway.
Salvador doesn’t deserve to get automatically sent to the minors, but even if he’s bought out, will he be able to get an NHL job? Neither Pandolfo nor Peters were, so in fact both did worse by being bought out – they only received 2/3 of the money they would have had they stuck with the Devils and played in Albany from the buyout and their AHL salary probably wasn’t enough to make up the difference.
Peters did get another contract, though.
If Salvador’s going to ask to be bought out, he’ll lose money unless he gets an NHL job that pays at least $1M. My guess is that he won’t get signed to a contract immediately, but will have to try out with a team first to prove he can still play without ill effects, and that he hasn’t lost too much from the 1+ year layoff. I doubt, even then, that he gets $1M because beyond cap issues, if he goes on LTIR again he still has to be paid. Maybe he gets someone to bite on a league-minimum contract, but he’s losing about $500K compared to if he had just stayed with the Devils.
If this were about money, Salvador could probably just sit out this year without too many questions being asked. Pandolfo had to agree to be bought out – yes, he lost money on the deal, but if he hasn’t been a complete idiot about finances, he should still be rather well off. ditto Salvador. there’s only a limited time that someone has a chance to play in the NHL.
I don’t know why, but whenever I see another Andy Greene post, it makes me not want him even more. I don’t read them, just for some reason the more I hear his name, the more I think we don’t need him. It’s weird…
Let Greene walk.
I’m leaning towards letting Greene walk unless he can be resigned cheap. If you ask me Fayne can fill his role and If Salvador comes back healthy he will replace any Veteran leader ship Greene may have provided.
I’m saying this because unless some of the Rookies make great leaps forward in goal production or some of the Veterans that have been under performing start having close to career best years. i.e. Rolston, Zubrus, Clarkson. The Devils will not be serious cup contenders.
At this point unless they can clear some cap space and fill some holes. They likely will be a middle of the pack playoff team. So next season will be a good year to get some of the Young defense quality minutes and see of stands out. So after next season when they should have serious cap space they can go after a missing piece.
I think it is a big mistake to let Greene walk. If there was ever a d-man that benefited from quality of his teammates it would be Greene. The better his teammates, the better he performs. You can see some amazing numbers from Greene if he has a really good teammate to back him up. I think he should be kept for under $2 mil.
That said, I think Fayne should be in the lineup. He has been good this year on the Devils and should be a part of it’s future.
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