Should the Devils Consider Trading their first round pick?
by poopydoodie11 on Apr 5, 2011 10:23 PM EDT
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With this latest loss to Pittsburgh, the devils are now guaranteed a top ten pick, and where they are right now, could draft as high as second. I will ask an importan question after the jump.
Should the Devils consider trading their first round draft pick? I absolutely think they should be open to listening to offers. Maxime Clermont, Scott Wedgewood, and Jeff Frazee are the top goalies within the organization. The question is, can they replace Martin Brodeur when he retires. Unfortunately filling the shoes of a legend is going to add pressure to whoever takes his place, so this is something else that must be considered. Can the replacement handle big time pressure like replacing a legend, or playing in a game 7? There are several goalies who could potentially be acquired if the Devils include this draft pick in the deal. Last year before Jaroslav Halak was traded, several of my friends who are Canadiens fans said that they heard rumors the Devils were inquiring about Carey Price, with the plan being that Marty could mentor him for a few years while he continued to develop. If this was true, it obviously fell through when the St. Louis trade happened. But even if it was not true, I think this is a good idea. Bringing in a goalie, who has shown they can be competitive in the NHL, and having Marty mentor him while they continue to develop.
For me there are 5 candidates that jump out. Jonathan Bernier, Braden Holtby, Semyen Varlamov, Michael Neuvirth, and Anders Lindback. These are all goalies who have shown they could win at the NHL level, and at the same time have trouble being the number one becasue their teams already have established goalies who are also young. I think if the devils really wanted to do something like this, washington would be the most likely partner since they have 3 young goalies.
So what says you? Do you think if the Devils can obtain a goalie they should consider moving this draft pick? For the poll im going to make it which goalie would you want, and you can sound off below if you think there is another alternative or if they should just stay put and use the pick themselves.
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The Devils should not be trading something as valuable as a top 10 first round pick for a young goaltender that is volatile in potential. Some of those five may not turn out to be regular NHL goalies.
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they should still listen to offers, I mean ridiculous stuff does happen so if its bernier + a 2nd for our first then its totally worth it isn’t it?
No. A first round pick in the top 10 is really that valuable.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
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by John Fischer on Apr 5, 2011 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks for posting this, its really interesting and quite revealing. I guess i should look at success rates for goalies and when theyre drafted to see the odds if clermont and wedgewood could be nhl caliber goalies someday.
One thing I couldnt stop thinking about when writing this is Marty wont be around forever, and it is possible he retires after next season. Remember the article you wrote about how poor of a job David Conte did over a certain period of time? I cant help but worry what if the devils pick the alexander daigle of the draft. With bernier i heard the kings were actually willing to trade quick and hand the reigns completely to him, thats how confident they are in him. hes even shown flashes of brilliance already. If they offered something along with him,. i think id have to consider it if i were lou. Its essentially using youre first round pick on him, and his development time is shorter than a normal goalies would be since he is ready to play in the nhl now.
by poopydoodie11 on Apr 6, 2011 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I cant help but worry what if the devils pick the alexander daigle of the draft. With bernier i heard the kings were actually willing to trade quick and hand the reigns completely to him, thats how confident they are in him. hes even shown flashes of brilliance already. If they offered something along with him,. i think id have to consider it if i were lou. Its essentially using youre first round pick on him, and his development time is shorter than a normal goalies would be since he is ready to play in the nhl now.
1) If the Kings were willing to trade Quick, then why would they hear any deals for Bernier?
2) If the Kings were that confident in Bernier, why did they start Quick in 57 games and Bernier only 22?
3) If the Kings were willing to move Bernier, why should NJ get what LA ultimately doesn’t want? Why would that be a good thing, just because Bernier is young and someone else (I don’t know) says he’s talented?
This is going to be the main point of a larger post this offseason but the reality is that expecting/hoping/demanding that the Devils get a young “taltented” goaltender as Martin Brodeur’s “replacement” is a fool’s game. Moving the highest draft pick the Devils will have in decades for one would be a horrible move.
As far as Daigle is concerned, you won’t know that until years after the pick.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
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by John Fischer on Apr 6, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
overall i agree with you, i actually would prefer the devils lose out so they have a chance to draft as high as possible. I just wanted to poll the site, as well as make sure all things were considered in this issue.
by poopydoodie11 on Apr 6, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Shouldn’t you have put an option in the pull along the lines of “none of these” or “don’t trade the pick” to get a more genuine response? I didn’t vote, because I wouldn’t trade a first-round pick for any of those guys. I wonder how many people took the opposite approach and picked the one they wanted most, regardless of whether they’d pay that high a price.
i actually would prefer the devils lose out so they have a chance to draft as high as possible
Only problem with that theory is that the Islanders couldn’t lose any games in order to pass the Devils. The odds of the Devils going into the Lottery with the 5th pick are probably quite enormous. Although the Devils might have to lose out to keep the 6th pick; I don’t think staying behind Atlanta in the standings will last the rest of the season. Moving up past Columbus and/or Minnesota are probably pretty long odds as well. Figure on the Devils getting the 6th or 7th pick, barring changes through the lottery.
Go Devils Playoff Death Watch
Go Jets
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also this article is comparing the value of a top ten pick to later draft picks, not other players. it also does not include goalies, so it could be possible that these goalie are on pace to meet the requirements to be a “top” goalie. while for the most part i agree with you here, i think this needs to be considered.
by poopydoodie11 on Apr 6, 2011 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions
one final point. The success rate is not 100 percent, and the devils do not have a second round pick this year (as of right now). Manny Malhotra was drafted 7th, a potential spot for the devils this year and he is not considered a top forward based on his scoring output. I guess the main theme of this is the devils need to consider all options when going into the draft. sorry for the epic multipost.
by poopydoodie11 on Apr 6, 2011 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know if anyone has access to it but I know that Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus (subscription basis) put together an article measuring GVT by draft position. That would be a very interesting analysis to look at.
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I hate GVT with the fire of… well okay, only a few suns. But still, I really don’t think it’s a good metric for measuring stuff. I also wonder how illustrative it would really be – draft sample sizes are always tiny.
I took Tom Awad’s GVT data from last season and added a page with all the draft data from www.nhl.com. There’s a little bit of noise in the data because the LOOKUP command in Excel matches on seemingly whatever it feels like if there is no match, but I limited that by blanking out the draft position column I added for anybody who started playing before 1963. Here is the scatter chart. That dot to the far right near the zero line is Mr. Brodeur, by the way.
Go Devils Playoff Death Watch
Go Jets
Need to lose weight?
Very very cool. So since you have the raw (and I would be your best internet friend if you wanted to share it) data I wonder how the chart compares from 97-04 and 05-08. I have a feeling the landscape of pick value could have changed post lockout/new CBA.
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Rather that put the whole spreadsheet up at 23M+, I copied the totals lines from the GVT page into a new sheet along with the draft info. Right-click here and save it to your PC.
Go Devils Playoff Death Watch
Go Jets
Need to lose weight?
I can’t tell if you’re trolling or not because in a sense, you’re right, but you’re not normally one to speak with such finality.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I still don’t think trading for one of those goalies is worth a top 10 pick for a few reasons. The first being that Marty still has a year left on his contract- makes no sense to trade for a goalie only to see him ride the pine for most of the season. The second is that the goalie takes up cap space, while if the Devils go and draft Ryan Strome or someone else with their pick, they don’t have to give him a contract right away. Personally i’d take the safer option and draft and develop. Plus the team’s lost a good number of prospects to graduation- it would definitely help if the team could get a blue chip prospect imo.
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Then I guess the animals are on their own. Even the cute ones.
by Kevin Sellathamby on Apr 6, 2011 8:06 AM EDT reply actions
Devil’s next goalie is already in the system. Of course, that is predicated on him not getting injured, and Marty being around after next season, meaning no work-stoppage. For the next couple years while he develops, there are plenty of other options, the least of which is Marty playing another 2 or three years after his current contract expires.
You draft the best possible option at this draft position.
If by some chance there isn’t anything in the top 7 or so that Lou wants, he could easily trade down and pick up a pick or two in rounds 2 or 3, forfeit the late round 1 pick for Kovy, draft his high-risk gems in the second or third rounds.
The question is not how far. The question is, do you possess the constitution, the depth of faith, to go as far as is needed? - Il Duce
I think the better discussion question is....
What would it take for the Devils to trade a pick that is likely to fall in the 6-8 range? What is reasonable considering the talent there and what you would receive in return?
Also, I think there are some goalies on your list above you can obtain without giving up a first round pick.
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agree. No way Varlamov is worth a 1st rounder.
In Lou We Trust/Twitter/Cycle Like the Sedins
Then I guess the animals are on their own. Even the cute ones.
by Kevin Sellathamby on Apr 6, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I can only see one of two things I’d consider trading a Top 10 pick for at this point:
- Serious salary cap repair. That means expunging the remaining two years of Zubrus from our cap, plus getting something else. I’m not sure what would satisfy me with “something else”, but we’re not talking small potatoes like a third-line winger or a #4 defenseman. Most of the other Devils’ bloated contracts are more tolerable next year — White and Salvador and Rolston all have their contracts end next season, and I believe Clarkson has some positive trade value in a vacuum.
- As part of a larger deal for a true #1 defenseman. Alas, those guys don’t grow on trees, and they’re rarely put up for bid on the trade market.
I think there are some goalies on your list above you can obtain without giving up a first round pick.
I believe the value of goaltending is as low as it has ever been in the “modern” NHL. Look how little value there was for a goalie at the trade deadline. Consider how little money most of them got last summer as free agents. Montreal got a bag of magic beans for Jaroslav Halak…. sure, they look like they’ll grow into a nice beanstalk at this point, but it’s still early. Teams seem more inclined to go with a rotation instead of overpaying for a “true #1 goalie”.
In any event, I think the Devils could swing a deal for one of those young goaltenders without giving up such a valuble asset. You might have to give up multiple prospects you are high on, but there’s no need to give up an uber-prospect or a Top 10 pick.
As for Washington in specific, I think they’ll find their surplus of quality young goaltending isn’t quite the boon it would seem to be. While they could certainly flip one of them for another piece or two that is useful to them, I doubt they’ll haul in a bounty of riches unless they bamboozle some silly GM. There’s no reason to overpay for Varlamov when you might be able to snatch one of the other two at a lower price.
I dont think so.
The value of a top ten pick is just too high to trade for any of these goalies who may not pan out. If the Devils return to form next year, as many of us think (hope) they will, this is likely one of few high picks they will have the opportunity to draft. An opportunity at a top-10 franchise impact player is one they shouldn’t pass up.
If the Devils are going to have a bad year like the one we have just witnessed, they might as well reap the benefits of their bottom ten finish by bolstering their future through the draft.
I'm shocked
but I like your thinking ‘11. So many here have cited the risk of drafting a goalie in the first round (I searched but couldn’t find the posts which we debated this). So then how do we produce a future franchise goalie? I know, I know. You never can tell – so giving up a lot isn’t worth it because the position is just too unpredictable. But if Lou sense a goaltender out there that he likes – why not? It’s not supposed to be a strong draft year anyway, even those John’s link to Copper & Blue was very persuasive.
Getting a young goalie prospect who could sit behind Brodeur for a year, would be truly invaluable, well beyond anything in stats, but the stuff we call intangibles. In some ways, it would be like being Jeter’s backup for a year.
Maybe it’s because I also like Holtby and would consider it worth it.
I have respect for most sports fans with 2 exceptions: NY Ranger fans who grew up in New Jersey, and Dallas Cowboy fans who can't name the capital of Texas.
TOP 10 PICK
You only trade a top 10 pick for an established and proven NHL player that will walk right on to the team and contribute both significantly and immediately.
Would I trade our #1 for Joni Pitkanen (if he was signed past this year) ABSOLUTELY!
For an unproven goaltender- NO WAY !!!!
PS- Pitkanen is the UFA we should pursue this off season. Cap space will tell.
Look, you could make the argument that the Devils should trade the pick for another pick somewhere, but NEVER trade a pick that high for a goalie, especially since a young Hasek isn’t available. That would make the Kessel deal look like the greatest trade Toronto ever made, although it could be argued that it is…
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