Just spoke to Andy Greene's agent, Dan Plante, who said he talked to Lamoriello yesterday and plans to talk to him again later today.

-tgfireandice

Tom Gulitti has reported that Andy Greene's agent has had at least one recent conversation with Lou Lamoriello. A second tweet quotes Dan Plante as offering "The goal still is for Andy to be in New Jersey."

I would question if that goal is appropriate for both parties (the player and the team). After last year's injury-parade decimated our starting lineup, we as fans saw just how quickly a rookie team led by a first year head coach can spiral out of control. Clearly, a situtation which leaves the New Jersey Devils at the roster minimum should be avoided. After the jump I post some assumptions, results from Capgeek for the 2011-2012 (no bonus cushion) season, and answer the headline question: should the New Jersey Devils attempt to re-sign Andy Greene?

"Everyone's got a plan until they get hit." - Mike Tyson

As mentioned in the lead, last year's NJD squad was a beast on paper. The offseason additions of Anton Volchenkov, Henrik Tallinder, and our $100 Million Dollar man Ilya Kovalchuk had the fanbase salivating.

And then the injuries started. And they started piling up. And the Devils hit a stretch where half of the lineup was comprised of rookies while the roster itself was at the league minimum for cap reasons. The New Jersey Devils were hit, and hit hard, by poor conditioning, weak gameplan adjustments, and poor in-game decision making by the players. The plan, to stock the team up in the offseason and hit the ground running, was in shambles by November. So was the Devils' season.

I think the lesson learned here is that having some capspace for emergency situations is a good thing. I am not worrying about Lou's cap. I am speculating and assuming and guessing, because that's a fun game to play while we countdown to October.

Assumptions:

1. Re-sign Zach Parise
2. ZP's market value will likely have a cap hit around $6M
3. Sign Adam Larsson
4. AL's cap hit will likely be $3.5M (Using Victor Hedman of the TB lightning, 2nd pick in 2009 draft, as a comprable "no bonus cusion" contract)
5. AL should play more than 9 games and be in the regular lineup as a defensman.
6. Andy Greene will probably have a cap hit around $3M

(I originally thought it would be fair to assume AL would be in the $1.1M range, and asked TG on twitter for his opinion. He said that since there is no bonus cushion, the cap hit would be far higher, and that's what began the salary cap research and the Victor Hedman numbers.)

Some playing around on Capgeek reveals that our lineup with Andy Greene is over the cap by nearly $3M, which would require some cap-wizardry to move one of the least desirable contracts (Brian Rolston, Colin White, Bryce Salvador...). I know Lou was very personable and seemingly friendly with other GMs at the draft, but I doubt any team feels in-debted enough to do the Devils the favor of taking on of those contracts, while also being a talented enough squad to tempt the player to waive their NTC.

(figures in bold are assumed. that is to say, I made 'em up.)

 

CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

 

FORWARDS
Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.666m) / Jacob Josefson ($0.900m) / Nick Palmieri ($0.801m)
Zach Parise ($6.000m) / Travis Zajac ($3.887m) / Mattias Tedenby ($0.875m)
Patrik Elias ($6.000m) / David Clarkson ($2.666m) / Brian Rolston ($5.062m)
Rod Pelley ($0.550m) / Dave Steckel ($1.100m) / Dainius Zubrus ($3.400m)
Adam Mair ($0.515m)

 

 

DEFENSEMEN
Henrik Tallinder ($3.375m) / Andy Greene ($3.000m)
Anton Volchenkov ($4.250m) / Adam Larsson($3.500m)
Colin White ($3.000m) / Bryce Salvador ($2.900m)
Matthew Taormina ($0.510m)

GOALTENDERS
Martin Brodeur ($5.200m) / Johan Hedberg ($1.500m)

BUYOUTS: Jay Pandolfo ($0.833m) / Andrew Peters ($0.166m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $66,660,001; BONUSES: $240,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): -$2,360,001 - $240,000 bonuses = $2.6M over cap

 

Conclusion: I think Lou should let Andy Greene walk. His market rate, due to the inavailability of puck-moving defensemen this offseason, is likely to exceed his potential, and New Jersey cannot retain his services and remain cap-flexible for this upcoming season. If Andy Greene isn't persued, I think the roster situations would be far more resillient to mid-season bumps in the road.

What do y'all think? Should we sign Andy if he's willing to wait to get paid (Rolston's contract comes off the books next season)? Can we sign Andy, given the favorable market conditions for him and the teams struggle to stay under cap?