Should Andy Greene be re-signed?

by Diesel Statistician on Jun 30, 2011 2:25 PM EDT

Just spoke to Andy Greene's agent, Dan Plante, who said he talked to Lamoriello yesterday and plans to talk to him again later today.
-tgfireandice

Tom Gulitti has reported that Andy Greene's agent has had at least one recent conversation with Lou Lamoriello. A second tweet quotes Dan Plante as offering "The goal still is for Andy to be in New Jersey."

I would question if that goal is appropriate for both parties (the player and the team). After last year's injury-parade decimated our starting lineup, we as fans saw just how quickly a rookie team led by a first year head coach can spiral out of control. Clearly, a situtation which leaves the New Jersey Devils at the roster minimum should be avoided. After the jump I post some assumptions, results from Capgeek for the 2011-2012 (no bonus cushion) season, and answer the headline question: should the New Jersey Devils attempt to re-sign Andy Greene?

"Everyone's got a plan until they get hit." - Mike Tyson

As mentioned in the lead, last year's NJD squad was a beast on paper. The offseason additions of Anton Volchenkov, Henrik Tallinder, and our $100 Million Dollar man Ilya Kovalchuk had the fanbase salivating.

And then the injuries started. And they started piling up. And the Devils hit a stretch where half of the lineup was comprised of rookies while the roster itself was at the league minimum for cap reasons. The New Jersey Devils were hit, and hit hard, by poor conditioning, weak gameplan adjustments, and poor in-game decision making by the players. The plan, to stock the team up in the offseason and hit the ground running, was in shambles by November. So was the Devils' season.

I think the lesson learned here is that having some capspace for emergency situations is a good thing. I am not worrying about Lou's cap. I am speculating and assuming and guessing, because that's a fun game to play while we countdown to October.

Assumptions:

Re-sign Zach Parise
ZP's market value will likely have a cap hit around $6M
Sign Adam Larsson
AL's cap hit will likely be $3.5M (Using Victor Hedman of the TB lightning, 2nd pick in 2009 draft, as a comprable "no bonus cusion" contract)
AL should play more than 9 games and be in the regular lineup as a defensman.
Andy Greene will probably have a cap hit around $3M

(I originally thought it would be fair to assume AL would be in the $1.1M range, and asked TG on twitter for his opinion. He said that since there is no bonus cushion, the cap hit would be far higher, and that's what began the salary cap research and the Victor Hedman numbers.)

Some playing around on Capgeek reveals that our lineup with Andy Greene is over the cap by nearly $3M, which would require some cap-wizardry to move one of the least desirable contracts (Brian Rolston, Colin White, Bryce Salvador...). I know Lou was very personable and seemingly friendly with other GMs at the draft, but I doubt any team feels in-debted enough to do the Devils the favor of taking on of those contracts, while also being a talented enough squad to tempt the player to waive their NTC.

(figures in bold are assumed. that is to say, I made 'em up.)

CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.666m) / Jacob Josefson ($0.900m) / Nick Palmieri ($0.801m)
Zach Parise ($6.000m) / Travis Zajac ($3.887m) / Mattias Tedenby ($0.875m)
Patrik Elias ($6.000m) / David Clarkson ($2.666m) / Brian Rolston ($5.062m)
Rod Pelley ($0.550m) / Dave Steckel ($1.100m) / Dainius Zubrus ($3.400m)
Adam Mair ($0.515m)

DEFENSEMEN
Henrik Tallinder ($3.375m) / Andy Greene ($3.000m)
Anton Volchenkov ($4.250m) / Adam Larsson($3.500m)
Colin White ($3.000m) / Bryce Salvador ($2.900m)
Matthew Taormina ($0.510m)

GOALTENDERS
Martin Brodeur ($5.200m) / Johan Hedberg ($1.500m)

BUYOUTS: Jay Pandolfo ($0.833m) / Andrew Peters ($0.166m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $66,660,001; BONUSES: $240,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): -$2,360,001 - $240,000 bonuses = $2.6M over cap

Conclusion: I think Lou should let Andy Greene walk. His market rate, due to the inavailability of puck-moving defensemen this offseason, is likely to exceed his potential, and New Jersey cannot retain his services and remain cap-flexible for this upcoming season. If Andy Greene isn't persued, I think the roster situations would be far more resillient to mid-season bumps in the road.

What do y'all think? Should we sign Andy if he's willing to wait to get paid (Rolston's contract comes off the books next season)? Can we sign Andy, given the favorable market conditions for him and the teams struggle to stay under cap?

Poll

Should the New Jersey Devils re-sign Andy Greene?

Yes, pay him market value to keep him in the roster

2 votes

Yes, but only if he gives a home-team discount

42 votes

No, his skills are too overvalued at his market value

8 votes

No, not at any price

5 votes

57 votes | Poll has closed

All FanPosts and FanShots are the respective work of the author and not representative of the writers or other users of In Lou We Trust.

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Comments

I’m glad someone finally made a post about this!

by Zelepukin on Jun 30, 2011 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Clutch

“re-sign” not resign. Also, I’m only taking Greene for a large discount. Something tells me his agent is smart enough to know that his client will probably get overpayed outside of NJ Good luck, Mr. Greene

Ilya Kovalchuk is good at hockey

by 3 already on Jun 30, 2011 3:06 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I believe that it is time for Greene to leave. I have nothing against him, he played well, and I have high expectations for our defense. But I feel he won’t be worth what he will command. He is too small and not physical enough, nor is he offensively talented enough to be a true threat from the blue line. Because of this, he doesn’t warrant $3 mil in my mind.

There is nothing quite as satisfying as out running security after you've punched out a Flyers fan!
"I was in the moment, and the moment said smack you." - Bruce Willis

by slackdog_rm on Jun 30, 2011 3:15 PM EDT reply actions

I think any more than around $2.25 mil is too much and I’d rather let him walk.

by undersuspicion426 on Jun 30, 2011 3:54 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

As much as it’s been said, Greene loves it here and wants to stay. Would you be against a 4 year, 8 mill contract? That’s more than double what he made in the last contract. If he wants more than that, I say see ya.

by skly27 on Jun 30, 2011 4:19 PM EDT reply actions

any greene has a supa weak shot, kovy’s back hand is harder

by ALECDK on Jun 30, 2011 4:48 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t think you can say that, no one has any evidence of how hard Kovy’s back hand is as it has never been seen.

by wolfcaster on Jun 30, 2011 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

Rec’d

by dr(d)evil on Jun 30, 2011 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Your capgeek info has not Mark Fayne and you have Adam Mair on the team? huh?

As far as Greene. If he can get 3 million from another team. I wish him the best of luck.

by NJDOhio on Jun 30, 2011 6:18 PM EDT reply actions

Roster picks

I played around with the Capgeek info – I left Salvadore because I thought there was a clause preventing his caphit from being “hidden”. I put in Mair and Taormina because they were they represented a lower cap hit than more talented farm players.

"What kind of respect do I get? ... Just because I'm a physical player, it's O.K. to come at me and do what you want? Hey, it's a hockey game. It's not figure skating. You know what? I can take a hit and I can give a hit. I don't care who it is. No one gets a free ride out there. I don't get a free ride, and no one gets a free ride from me." - Scott Stevens

by Diesel Statistician on Jun 30, 2011 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I can’t see how other then a horrid preseason Fayne doesn’t make this team. and Adam Mair is a UFA who I don’t see why he would be resigned.

by NJDOhio on Jun 30, 2011 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions

He’s not saying Adam Mair is going to be re-signed. He just put him there to use someone as a lower cap hit for an example of who might be signed for that position.

by undersuspicion426 on Jun 30, 2011 8:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

^ this

by Diesel Statistician on Jun 30, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions

To be honest...

In my opinion, if he asks for anything above $1.75-2mil then let him walk.

He had 1 impressive year, then another weak year so I think he doesn’t deserve anything above 2.

He should consult NHL 11 for this one. Whenever he becomes a UFA for when I play as the Devils, he always asks for a 3year/$3mil deal, so a cap hit of $1mil. That seems PERFECT!

by Devils1192 on Jun 30, 2011 7:06 PM EDT reply actions

That cap hit for Larsson seems a bit high. I’m pretty sure John said 4th picks make somewhere in the $2.5MM range (too lazy to look this up; John feel free to refute this if I am mistaken).

Also – not that the Greene issue hasn’t been beaten to death, buried, dug up, reanimated, then beaten to death again – but yeah, I’m also of the ilk that he should walk for a cent over a $2 mil cap hit.

Status quo.

by nyynygnjd on Jun 30, 2011 7:16 PM EDT reply actions

Larsson cap hit

I’ll admit, I didn’t review John’s early draft review on this one. I simply went to Wikipedia and Capgeek. I looked for the last top5 defenseman who was on a roster.

The TB Lightning kid was drafted second in 2009. $750,000 salary, with 2.75M in potential bonuses. Since there is no bonus cushion this upcoming season, you add the bonus to the average salary for the cap hit. I didn’t get into theory of “well… he was a 4 instead of a 2, but there’s a chance he’ll play in the big league this year… how does that balance…”

So I just put in 3.5M.

by Diesel Statistician on Jun 30, 2011 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I found that the last five fourth overall picks incurred an average cap hit of $2,391,977 when they signed their first ELC. There’s variation, but even at a sub-$2 million cap hit like Ryan Johansen, it’s still significant money for a NHL player.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Jun 30, 2011 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s a heck of a lot more feasible for Larsson to play up to a $2.4M level than a $3+M level though.

by dr(d)evil on Jun 30, 2011 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Warning - contains maths

John – what have you found to be more likely to drive ELCs in the past, the pure draft position, or the draft position for the player’s position?

I pulled a list of the defensemen picked in top five picks for five years. There are 10, and all but one signed an ELC.

(this looks much better in google docs…)

https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtyVMLzIlPrBdHFfUmtBOGVXd0haOHhhSi1UY2g4NXc&hl=en_US

Draft Year First? Pick D Team Base Bonus Cap
2010 First 3 Erik Gudbranson Panthers $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
2009 First 2 Victor Hedman Lightning $900,000.00 $2,600,000.00 $3,500,000.00
2008 First 2 Drew Doughty Kings $875,000.00 $2,600,000.00 $3,475,000.00
2008 no 3 Zach Bogosian Thrashers $875,000.00 $2,500,000.00 $3,375,000.00
2008 no 4 Alex Pietrangelo Blues $875,000.00 $2,350,000.00 $3,225,000.00
2008 no 5 Luke Schenn Leafs $875,000.00 $2,100,000.00 $2,975,000.00
2007 First 4 Thomas Hickey Kings $875,000.00 $500,000.00 $1,375,000.00
2007 no 5 Karl Alzner Capitals $875,000.00 $750,000.00 $1,625,000.00
2006 First 1 Erik Johnson Blues $850,000.00 $2,850,000.00 $3,700,000.00
2005 First 3 Jack Johnson Hurricanes $850,000.00 $1,950,000.00 $2,800,000.00

Average Cap for all top 5 D = $2,894,444.44
Average Cap hit for D who happened to be 4th or 5th pick = $2,300,000.00
Average Cap hit for the FIRST D pickedthat year = $2,970,000

We all know Lou plays the game as well and better than anyone, but we also know we were lucky Larsson fell to us. For estimation sake, I feel the $2.97M may be closer to the truth than the $2.39M. Eitherway, data shows that taking last year’s $3.5 is measurably on the high side.

by Diesel Statistician on Jun 30, 2011 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, based on the post I linked to, while there is variation from year to year, it appears draft position seems to matter more. #1 is going to get max, #2 is usually going to get just under that or the same, and it trickles down from there. Of course, where the player is from matters – college bound prospects aren’t going to sign an ELC until they’re ready to come out of college and by then, they’re usually older and many not command much money (e.g. James van Reimsdyk).

Most of that list are top 3 picks. Only Pietrangelo and Schenn got massive amounts of money outside of the top 3. While it’s a small population, I would gather they are exceptions as opposed to the rule.

Larsson is an interesting case since he’s still got a contract with Skelleftea through 2011-12. The Devils now have his rights for two years maximum, so the Devils can wait until his current contract ends in the SEL before giving him an ELC.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Jul 1, 2011 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions

I voted for home-team discount

but it needs to be significant. skly27’s 4 year, 8 million might be swallowable, esspecialy if it is increasing, so his cap hit is less than his salary in 2 years so he can be dumped reasonably easily if (when) he doesn’t perform up to expectations. 1.5, 2, 2, 2.5 would be an acceptable breakdown, but I’d be happier at 4 years, $7M.

Go Devils
Go Jets
Need to lose weight?

by FrankG929 on Jun 30, 2011 10:22 PM EDT reply actions

Considering how thin the crop of UFA defensemen is and that this is a market in which Ladislav Smid will make $2.25 million and Jonathan Ericcson will make $3.25 million a year, I think that some team will offer Andy Greene a deal with an AAV of at least $3 million. I hope that team is not the Devils, as I do not believe that he should be retained for any more than $2.5 million a year.

by kaw327 on Jul 1, 2011 12:04 AM EDT reply actions

we signed him……….

by ALECDK on Jul 1, 2011 8:39 PM EDT reply actions

for $3M/year.

Larson won’t be here unless there’s a move to dump salary elsewhere or if Zach isn’’t signed. (gasp)

The question is not how far. The question is, do you possess the constitution, the depth of faith, to go as far as is needed? - Il Duce

by Murdoc on Jul 1, 2011 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions

that was way to much to pay for a guy that will get you 25-30 points a year. We just put ourselves in a crutch again now that we still need to sign parise and fill out our roster. personally i would have offered 1.75 a year

by 9zparise on Jul 2, 2011 9:12 PM EDT reply actions

That would have been the lowball of the century, given what other players were getting this year. Sheldon Souray is making almost 1.75 and he wasn’t even in the NHL last year.

Status quo.

by nyynygnjd on Jul 3, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions