Off-Season NHL Discussion Thread

by elesias on Jul 13, 2011 11:11 AM EDT

It is the time of year hockey fans dread most: the summer lull. The draft and all of its speculation has come and gone, as has the excitement of the opening of free agency and subsequent feeding frenzy. There remain a few unsigned players and perhaps a trade or two looming (and for us, a coach to be named), but for the most part we have a pretty good idea what each team will look like to start the 2011-12 season.

There, of course, remains some debate amongst fans about who should play on what line and how the newcomers and departures will affect each team, but in general most hockey fans are anxiously looking at their calendars wondering how to fill their time until the training camps begin.

In that frame of mind I thought, "What better time for rampant speculation?!" and so I present this off-season thread to discuss, dispute, argue and throw around statistics about how we see the upcoming season turning out.

In the East: Will Boston repeat, or has Thomas had his moment in the sun? Does Vokoun help make the Capitals the odds-on favorites in the East? Does a healthy Crosby and Malkin reinstate the Penguins as the best team no one seems to be talking about? Have all of the changes in Philadelphia improved the team, kept them about the same or actually made them worse? Are the Lightning contenders or pretenders? Does Richards help legitimize the Rangers' chances? Will the kids in NJ step up and help get the team back into the playoffs?

In the West: Will Havlat help the Sharks over the hump? Will Vancouver rebound or will ghosts of the past and their so-close-and-yet-so-far end to the season bring them back to Earth? Is Detroit still an elite team? Will the Predators build upon their (relative) success last season or will it just be more of the same down in Nashville? Is Chicago, with the loss of Campbell, completing its come-down from their cap-strapped Cup victory a couple of years ago or are they back on the upswing?

These questions and more will all be answered eventually, but for now all we have are gut-feelings, statistical projections and personal hopes.

How do you think things will unfold? Who will make the playoffs next year and who is the team to beat?

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Im afraid of Washington

and what having Vokoun back there will do for the ‘psyche’ of the team. Knowing that you have a Top 7 goaltender in the net allows for some more chance-taking. And if the high-flying Capitals of a few years ago can combine with the defensively-aware Capitals of last season … watch out.

by Skuba7 on Jul 13, 2011 11:55 AM EDT reply actions

And with additions of Brouwer and Ward to go along with Chimera, Knuble, and Laich they can now match grit with skill on each of their top 3 lines. They’re also looking pretty good on the back end with Hamrlik to go along with Green, Alzner, and Carlson in their top 4.

The only question mark I see in their lineup is at 2C, if Marcus Johansson doesn’t take a step up.

by HockeyWeasel on Jul 13, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Caps are the favorites, IMO

First of all, I view the playoffs as a crap shoot. The regular season is a better guage (bigger sample) when judging the quality of a team (or player).

Second, the Caps have been the best team in the East the past two seasons.

Third, Vokoun is one of the most under-rated players in the league.

I think the Devs will compete for Atlantic Division title. I know a lot of fans don’t value winning the AD very much but think its important and I root for it every year.

by Bobby V on Jul 13, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Top 7? Methinks you overrate Vokoun somewhat.

Go Devils
Go Jets
Need to lose weight?

by FrankG929 on Jul 13, 2011 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I dont think so. Especially playing in Florida, Vokoun has been putting up excellent numbers for many years now.
Still managed 6 shutouts and a .922 SV& this season on a team that finished 15th in the East. Has had at least a .919 SV% since the Lockout playing on some miserable teams.
Even if the statement was Top 10, the comment applies.

by Skuba7 on Jul 13, 2011 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions

A caveat

Florida’s “official scorer” has a tendency to inflate shot totals a little bit, particularly for opposition players. That leads to Florida goalies being credited with more saves and a higher save percentage.

Just look at Roberto Luongo’s numbers when he was in Florida, and his numbers now that he’s in Vancouver. I know the Canucks are a better defensive team than are the Panthers, and do a better job at preventing shots…. but there’s a substantial difference in the numbers between the two cities, and I can’t see pinning all of it on the team defenses.

I’m not sure I’d put Vokoun in the Top 10, myself. His lack of post-season success weighs him down in my mind. Admittedly, the lack of opportunities isn’t entirely his fault, but still….

by acasser on Jul 14, 2011 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions

I’m not sure I’d put Vokoun in the Top 10, myself. His lack of post-season success weighs him down in my mind.

How much does that affect someone like Pekka Rinne then? I would argue he is a Top 5 goalie right now.

by Skuba7 on Jul 14, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Rinne won a playoff round this year. Tomas Vokoun has never won a playoff round in his life. But to the question at hand, post-season success means something, although it’s up to the individual opinionater exactly how much it factors into the equation.

My point of view? It can be very easy to accumulate numbers in the regular season, especially as you’ll face a host of weaker teams at times. We’ve seen players who are marvelous in the regular season and nothing in the playoffs, the same way we’ve seen “paper dragon” teams that put up a ton of wins over the 82-game slate and are quickly ousted come the second season. I’m not going to say that regular season numbers are meaningless, but I put a fair amount of weight on getting a team to the playoffs and having some success there when the pressure is a lot higher.

Vokoun has been to the playoffs twice in his entire career, and it isn’t a short career. His playoff record is 3-8. Add that to his inability to get the Panthers into the playoffs (and they only really came close once) and my opinion on the official scorers in Sunrise, and I’m skeptical.

by acasser on Jul 14, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

If he’s been to the playoffs only twice, his teams likely squeaked in and had to face a really good team in the first round. In 2004 he put up a .939 as Nashville lost to #1 overall Detroit in 6 games. In 2007 he put up a .902 as #4 Nashville lost to San Jose in 5 games. I think you can blame him for the 2007 postseason, but that first one is just having a bad team in front of him. (and seriously, arguing record?)

Even adjusting for shot overcounting, Vokoun comes out very close to Luongo and Hiller and Thomas for best goalie .

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by red army line on Jul 14, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

After Nashville sent Vokoun down to Sunrise, they kept on humming into the playoffs year after year. As for Vokoun, he hasn’t carried the Panthers further than they had been in years past. Other than one year where Florida missed the postseason on a tiebreak, they haven’t really been a factor in the playoff picture.

Of the four guys you mentioned as “best goalie”, the only one I’d even put into the equation right now is Tim Thomas…. and I’m not much of a Tim Thomas fan. There are a lot of question marks around Roberto Luongo these days, and his SCF performance will provide him a boatload of new detractors. And Jonas Hiller, seriously? There’s certainly some potential, there, but the guy hasn’t done it for very long and his numbers (GAA and Sv%) are nothing to write home about.

I’d take Cam Ward and Ryan Miller before I even thought about Luongo, Vokoun, or Hiller. I’d probably take Mark-Andre Fleury above that trio, too. There are more than a few others I’d at least consider above Luongo and Vokoun, too.

by acasser on Jul 14, 2011 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions

What is Vokoun supposed to do? Score 50 goals? Make Pavel Datsyuk wake up on an island in the middle of Pacific Ocean? Make Shea Weber and Ryan Suter superstars as soon as they get drafted? Make the Panthers’ front office competent?

Hiller’s numbers are something to write home about. Since he’s entered the league, if memory serves, only Vokoun and Luongo have higher save percentages (and GAA, really, for Ducks teams that allows lots of shots?). Each of the three as many or more .918 seasons in the last four years than Fleury and Ward have combined in their careers (three), and Miller only has two himself (elite-average-elite-average seems like his pattern).

by red army line on Jul 14, 2011 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions

What is Vokoun supposed to do?

How about getting his team to the playoffs? How about winning a few games once he’s there?

Making the postseason is hardly an exclusive club in the NHL, considering more than half the teams qualify. It isn’t something any one player can do on their own, but Vokoun’s record of getting there isn’t particularly enviable. Much of that can be laid on the team, because a team that isn’t good enough to make it to the playoffs cannot win a playoff game. Some of that has to be on the goalie. Over the course of four seasons in Florida, Vokoun played in 248 games (an average of 62 per season). While a lousy team around him would certainly drag him down, I would expect a premiere goalie to lift the rest of the team to some degree. Other than the one season where Florida finished 9th after tie-breaks, the Panthers haven’t been particularly close to the cut-off.

The playoff standard is the same reason I’d ding Hiller — this season aside (when he wasn’t fully healthy) he’s gotten his teams there one year out of three.

I’ve stated before that save percentages can be a bit misleading. At the risk of being over-the-top, or having other writers accuse me of fallacious comparisons and hte like, would you say that Jonas Hiller as good as or a better goalie (career) than Martin Brodeur on account of the number of seasons he’s recorded a .918 save percentage or better?

I’m not going to throw the numbers out the window entirely. My personal standard is to temper outstanding numbers with some consideration to team success, and to how the individual goalie performs come crunch time. It’s not an entirely objective measure, because I’ll weight the scales more for goalies who have won a substantial amount in the playoffs or at the Olympics, and for goalies who have a “reputation” that they can steal a series by their lonesome.

….

Again, this is just my personal view on things. We see things differently because we weigh different criteria. I’m willing to agree to disagree on this one.

by acasser on Jul 14, 2011 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Im really still not afraid of Washington, sure they have their depth but I still look at them and think they won’t be able to figure things out. The Rangers got better but are still going to be a bubble team. I expect Boston to be really really good, The Penguins really good, the Flyers taking a small step back, and the Lightning way worse. The devils way better too…

by KovyisLove on Jul 13, 2011 3:20 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t see the Penguins as being that good. They lost one of their top defensive forwards in Talbot, Crosby’s health is still uncertain, the jury is still out on whether James Neal can be the big-time wing they need with Crosby, and they don’t have anyone frightening to play the wing on Malkin’s line.

Also, what makes you say the Lightning are going to be way worse? Sure they lost Gagne and Bergenheim, and Roloson is something of a question mark, but that’s still essentially the same team that went to the ECF last season. And with a full season from Eric Brewer, their defense is only going to get better.

by HockeyWeasel on Jul 13, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Gagne wasn’t too important but Bergenheim was their clutchest forward in the playoffs. I also feel like they weren’t as good as they played in the playoffs, just riding a hot streak.

by KovyisLove on Jul 13, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m not sold on TB either… I think they overachieved remarkably last year. They’re definitely better under the guidance of Yzerman than they were two years ago, but I don’t think they’re as good as we saw last season.

That said, I think Florida and Winnipeg will be bottom feeders this year with Carolina being a bubble team, so their division isn’t the strongest and they could very well win it if Washington slips up.

by elesias on Jul 13, 2011 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Crosby is obviously a huge factor, but Talbot when that team is healthy is a 4th line forward. Staal and Kennedy are the most important shutdown guys, they’re still around, as are Cooke and Dupuis.

With Tampa, Roloson and MSL could suddenly feel their age. Stamkos was a huge bargain last year, they’ll have less wiggle room this year.

by red army line on Jul 14, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the Rangers are much better than a bubble team. They now have a solid 1C to go with their 1RW, their second line is excellent matched against top opposition, Boyle-Prust are competent defensively and Stepan provides a little extra scoring. I see a clear top-6 in the East: Washington, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York Rangers, Boston, and Tampa Bay.

by red army line on Jul 14, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

So Rangers are above us? Ok then you consider us a bubble team >.<. the Rangers might have got more consistency but I don’t know if they necessarily got better. Gaborik still has the chance of being injured for half the year, and Richards might be just like every new york rangers free agent pickup and stink up the joint while he bathes in his money.

by KovyisLove on Jul 14, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

The only recent Rangers FA I see like that is Redden, honestly. Other times I think they’ve just horribly overestimated the player they’re signing. Richards is actually switching to a better team (I think). I don’t think he’ll hit 90 points, but he should hit 75 and help their PP in soft TOI (which they can give him since their 2nd and 3rd lines can handle toughs).

Yeah, I consider NYI a bubble team.

by red army line on Jul 14, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

(oops, LHH is open in another tab…the Devils, I don’t know. Once the cap situation sorts itself out, I’ll be able to guess, but right now I just don’t know)

by red army line on Jul 14, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Richards will definitely help the Rangers scoring, PP and maintaining some consistency (it seems like last year they either lost by a goal or won by 4), but I’m honestly doubting his and his likely partner Gaborik’s defensive acumen. I expect that if injury doesn’t, Tortorella will break them up because they spend more time racking up negative CORSI than scoring goals.

by elesias on Jul 14, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I get the impression Tortorella matches lines very aggressively. If he doesn’t, I think the Rangers will be a bubble team again, but he has the personnel and has shown that he’s willing.

by red army line on Jul 14, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

?? Gomez and Drury were players who were awful as they came in to the Rangers, two awful contracts. Holik is another Lindros is another.

by KovyisLove on Jul 14, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s a fine distinction, perhaps, between saying whether a player got fat and lazy with a big contract or was just horribly overpaid, but I’d say all of those were cases of the latter. I’d even include Redden in that as it was pretty clear when Sather signed him that he was only getting worse with each passing year.

by elesias on Jul 14, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I see a clear top-6 in the East: Washington, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York Rangers, Boston, and Tampa Bay.

I’d throw Boston out of that group unless you really think Tim Thomas or Tuukka Rask can be Hasek-esque again.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Jul 14, 2011 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions

No, but I expect them to have the best goaltending tandem in the league again. They had a +51 goal differential, and even though they have some older players, I’m not expecting a huge dropoff (and I think all of the other teams, save Pittsburgh, are quite a bit closer to the pack than they’re taken for).

Aside: I didn’t realize the Devils were above 53% Corsi (score tied). I thought they were just above 51%. They may end up near the top of the conference this year in terms of underlying numbers (but I see the division as too tough to ice four top teams in the standings).

by red army line on Jul 14, 2011 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Aside: I didn’t realize the Devils were above 53% Corsi (score tied). I thought they were just above 51%. They may end up near the top of the conference this year in terms of underlying numbers (but I see the division as too tough to ice four top teams in the standings).

Oh, yeah. This team under Lemaire was killing it in terms of possession. I took a stab at calculating the difference under each coach back in April. Under Lemaire, the Devils were at 55.52% Corsi in score tied situations – a big jump over 50.61% under MacLean. They were possession machines in the second half of the season, throw in some luck finally going their way, and it becomes more apparent why they clawed their way back to respectability.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Jul 14, 2011 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Boston will compete, but not for the Cup. I see Philly regressing bar the kids overplaying incredibly, Pittsburg staying the same, NYR improving a tiiiiiiny bit, and the NYI improving a ton, especially with a full season under their new coach, Nino possibly making the jump, and full seasons from Streit and Hamonic.

The only question mark to me is the Devils. Will they prove last year was a fluke? I think so, but we were saying they could have been top 4 in the East last year too. In all honesty, I think this could be the year all 5 AD teams make it to the playoffs.

by skly27 on Jul 13, 2011 6:42 PM EDT reply actions

Rank your top 5 in the West

(Read: Five most likely candidates to get beat down by the Devils in the Cup Finals)

1.) Red Wings – I think this team has one more run in them. Admittedly, Rafalski ritiring was a big blow, but Lidstrom came back, they made a few smart depth moves, and I think they will play with urgency as their aging core senses their window may be closing in the near future.

2.) Canucks – I certainly am not a huge fan of theirs after getting an up close look in the playoffs, but this team is still really good. Lost Ehrhoff, but re-signed Bieksa and Salo, plus picked up Sturm to help fill the void. A Cup Finals loss could mean hangover, but perhaps it actually galvanizes them and makes them play like a little more of a team when the chips are down.

3.) Sharks – You can never really count out the Sharks, and I think they are starting to shake that ‘choker’ label and turning into something of a battle-tested veteran club. Made a couple big moves, with Heatley, Setoguchi, and Coyle departing for Minnesota and Burns and Havlat coming back. Whether those were good moves remains to be seen.

4.)Kings – I think this team may be ready to make a bit of a leap. There’s a lot to like (or dislike cough Richards cough) about the direction this team is trending. I thought they were really dangerous in this years playoffs until they blew a tire and coughed up a 4-0 lead in that game against San Jose. Lot of talent on this roster; I think they can make some noise.

5.)Blackhawks – Can the hawks jump back into the Cup conversation this year? They floundered out of the gate but really came on in the second half, culminating in a near miracle comeback against the Canucks. I think Crawford showed he has some big time potential in the playoffs and if he continues to improve with some of the talent they have, they could be dangerous.

Status quo.

by nyynygnjd on Jul 13, 2011 7:39 PM EDT reply actions

I just cant wait to see how bad Jagr destroys whatever locker room chemistry the flyers have left.

by Rory B. Bellows on Jul 14, 2011 12:29 AM EDT reply actions

Czech Langenbrunner!

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Talking toilet, you may call me Jane.

by Kevin Sellathamby on Jul 14, 2011 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions

I don’t know yet.

I’m still trying to collect my thoughts after poking around the Kings blog… wrapping my head around people postulating that the Devs would concider a ZP+Larsson for Doughty trade makes my medula twitch involuntarily.

The question is not how far. The question is, do you possess the constitution, the depth of faith, to go as far as is needed? - Il Duce

by Murdoc on Jul 14, 2011 8:58 AM EDT reply actions

I’d take Doughty and Brown for Parise and Larsson, at least consider it. Doughty is already a top defense man in the league.

by KovyisLove on Jul 14, 2011 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Get outta dodge

by undersuspicion426 on Jul 15, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

My response to those people: Drugs are bad, mmkay?

Hell on Ice/In Lou We Trust/Twitter
Talking toilet, you may call me Jane.

by Kevin Sellathamby on Jul 14, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I suppose this comment fits in here. On Adam Larsson’s twitter he tweeted NJ on July 10th and late last night he tweeted Skelleftea. Now this might not mean anything at all, and htis might not even be his real twitter ( Although TG follows it), but still some interesting information. Would a player really tweet something that no one else knows already? That’s weird, especially in our organization.

by KovyisLove on Jul 14, 2011 11:06 AM EDT reply actions

Well, I would imagine Lou has already had enough nightmares that have ended with “How the %$*& do I fit him under this cap and where?” It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if, that given he’s got until tomorrow to sign a contract, and there hasn’t been a trade yet, Lou’s already told him to prep for play in Sweden this year, and they’ll be a spot on the blueline for him next year.

My guess is that there’s an issue with the A bonus package Lou has never given out and a #4 pick jumping into the NHL expects. Regardless, 24 quality minutes a night is a lot better than 12 protected minutes for his future, and that of the Devils.

The question is not how far. The question is, do you possess the constitution, the depth of faith, to go as far as is needed? - Il Duce

by Murdoc on Jul 14, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

grumbles there’ll be a spot

The question is not how far. The question is, do you possess the constitution, the depth of faith, to go as far as is needed? - Il Duce

by Murdoc on Jul 14, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Would a player really tweet something that no one else knows already? That’s weird, especially in our organization.

Quite possibly. McKenna used his account to let people know he got called up before it was announced. Not coincidentally, his account went dark shortly after that.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Jul 14, 2011 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually, I don’t think there’s much of a problem with that. I remember Reece Scarlett actually tweeting a similar comment (I’m Jersey bound!), so it’s not really that bad considering that they’re just going there for prospect camp. It’s not like he was implying he was signing a contract or going to be part of the Devils.

As for the question about legitimacy, i’m actually not really sure about it. TG and the NHL follow him, but I don’t actually see a lot of other legit media guys (i.e. TSN guys, Sportsnet guys (Kypreos, Marek)) following him. There’s actually been no confirmation about it.

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Talking toilet, you may call me Jane.

by Kevin Sellathamby on Jul 14, 2011 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Just a thought.

I was just thinking that if the Devils would manage to clear some cap space to make room for the Parise contract I was think if they could manage to sign Cory Stillman it would be a good fit for the Devils. Should he still be available. He’s a little on the older side but he’s awesome on the powerplay. Maybe he could help spark the Devils seemingly always struggling powerplay.Thoughts?

by maliky on Jul 23, 2011 11:27 PM EDT reply actions

two big question marks one how much more does stillman have left. Two where would we slot him we are pretty full up on the 4 lines.

by KingHellfire on Jul 24, 2011 6:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Though I see one good thing about Stillman he played for Deboer’s Panthers a couple seasons and a half, perhaps he could again hit 50 to 60 points.

by KingHellfire on Jul 24, 2011 6:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Cory Stillman isn’t the answer. Beyond the obvious questions of where do you slot him and how will you free up the cap space to make an offer…. what exactly is he going to offer? His numbers in general have been in steady decline since the lockout. He hasn’t been healthy in quite some time — the 65 games he played this season were the most he’s managed since 2007-2008. He’s had concussion issues in recent years, plus back and knee injuries…. and those are the types of injuries that often recur.

As for help on the Power Play, I just don’t see it. It’s been covered in the articles/comments about the new head coach how pitiful Florida’s PP was. Carolina’s PP unit wasn’t much better this year (24th in the League), and Stillman spent a fair amount of time there.

I don’t see the need to perform all sorts of roster moves to free up the space and sign Stillman. If it’s another veteran forward one wants, I’m sure Lamorello can do better.

by acasser on Jul 24, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions