Can the Devils compete with their current team next season?
by David Fine on Jul 4, 2011 12:12 PM EDT
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PrintI have come to the realization that the New Jersey Devils will not be making any drastic free agent signings this off season - the cap situation is such that Lou must focus on resigning Parise and making sure the 9 rfas remain with the team. Lou has hinted at the possibility of a trade (link at bottom), but I see the usual trade suspects, namely, Danius Zubrus (3.4 million cap hit), David Clarkson (2.66 Million), and Brian Rolston (5 million), remaining with the team unless Lou trades them for close to nothing (a late round draft pick). In today's NHL, teams must measure a player's cap hit with their skill to assess their true market value. Rolston, nearing the end of his career, provides some value to the Devils, but I do not believe other teams will take a chance on him. Zubrus is a realistic trade, given that he is a veteran presence and a top 9 forward, but, like Rolston, his cap hit hurts his value. Clarkson could be traded, but I think David is a valuable part of the New Jersey Devils. Many of you are currently saying, "Are you kidding me? Any player who finishes with a -20 rating and only 18 points has no value". I argue against this sentiment for two reasons: a) Clarkson has not received a realistic chance to be a top six forward in his NHL career, given that he has spent most of his playing career on a checking and b) Clarkson's true value lies in his hard hitting, aggressive, enforcing (fighting), and "heart on his sleeve" mentality, a necessary part of an NHL team. Look at the contribution Shawn Thornton made to the Bruins in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Whenever ex-Devils and current Bruins Coach Claude Julien was looking to spark his team, he sent his battering ram (Thornton) out and let him turn the momentum around.
With that out of the way, let's look at the Devils current roster. Using some logic from last year's lineup, here are your current 2011-2012 Devils.
Offense
Kovalchuk Zajac Palmieri
Parise Josefson Tedenby (this is a stretch)
Rolston Elias Zubrus
Zharkov Pelley Clarkson
Defense
Fayne Tallinder
Volchenkov White
Greene Taormina/Fraser/Corrente/Noreau
Goaltending
Brodeur
Hedberg
John recently addressed the issue of "what is a puck moving defenseman?". The Devils need an offensive defenseman as much as a puck moving one. A puck moving defenseman can move the puck well into the offensive zone via skating/passing. The Devils have an obvious lack of a "seasoned" (don't go writing Taormina) offensive defenseman who can put the puck in the back of the net or set up teammates for a goal. Their are very few in the league that are available and I do not think the Devils will get one before the beginning of the year unless they make a trade. The Devils also lack an elite shutdown defenseman. Again, there are very few available and the Devils most likely will need to draft one and develop that person through the farm system. I do not see Adam Larsson making the Devils because he would carry a high cap hit as a rookie and I also believe he should be seasoned in North America, which is much more physical than the Swedish Elite League.
I'm not going to comment any further, because anything else I feel I could comment on would be considered unrealistic speculation. Therefore, I will leave it up to you guys. Please comment and vote.
All FanPosts and FanShots are the respective work of the author and not representative of the writers or other users of In Lou We Trust.
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I argue against this sentiment for two reasons: a) Clarkson has not received a realistic chance to be a top six forward in his NHL career, given that he has spent most of his playing career on a checking
Malarkey. He’s had numerous opportunities over the past couple of years to show he can be a top-6 forward. He’s spent most of his career on in the bottom-6 because:
b) Clarkson’s true value lies in his hard hitting, aggressive, enforcing (fighting), and “heart on his sleeve” mentality
I like the guy and I want him to succeed, but he’s never run with his chances. He has flashes that get the blood going about his potential and everyone builds up expectations about his seeming imminent break-out… but it never materializes. He disappears and the flashes are revealed to be just that, momentary flashes. It’s becoming more and more evident that what we’ve been seeing as indicative of his great potential may very well just be him jumping and banging his head into his ceiling.
"I have an opinion and I know you have an answer, but in all honesty if you don’t know then don’t reply, because my opinion will always be better than your answer….and if you agree then highlight your response unless you don’t know."
David Clarkson has 11 years’ worth of stats on hockeydb.com, and nothing about those numbers suggest that he is capable of being a top 6 forward. He shoots well for a bottom 6 sort of player, but he shoots too frequently and his entire game seems to be built around shooting the puck.
Nick Palmieri
This season, Nick Palmieri played with Zajac and Kovalchuk. I do not believe Palmieri will develop into a true scoring threat (30+ goals/yr), and yet he was, by definition, a top six forward. He played with those two because he played well in the corners and was able to use his size to keep the puck in the zone.
This sounds a lot like a description of David Clarkson. Though I agree with you that he is shot happy at times, he has not been a top six forward because he either cannot develop consistent chemistry with top line players, or because he hasn’t been given enough of an opportunity to showcase his skills.
This sounds a lot like a description of David Clarkson. Though I agree with you that he is shot happy at times, he has not been a top six forward because he either cannot develop consistent chemistry with top line players, or because he hasn’t been given enough of an opportunity to showcase his skills.
Does it? David Clarkson is of average or below average size.
Clarkson cannot be a top 6 player because he’s not good enough. He makes constant giveaways. He’s decent when he’s left to himself, which is why Devils fans think he can become more – he has good moves for a bottom 6 player. But he’s not good at using his teammates. Furthermore, Clarkson has been here as a regular for 4 years – if he’s not getting the ice time with top 6 players, it’s because he isn’t earning it.
This season, Nick Palmieri played with Zajac and Kovalchuk. I do not believe Palmieri will develop into a true scoring threat (30+ goals/yr), and yet he was, by definition, a top six forward. He played with those two because he played well in the corners and was able to use his size to keep the puck in the zone.
Palmieri listened to his coaches – his role was to drive the net whenever he got into the zone, and that’s what he did. Palmieri was on an awful Erie Otters team in junior, he has more scoring ability than Clarkson. I am bearish on Palmieri’s future as well, I’m not sure he will be good enough for the only role which he can really do at the NHL level.
you missed an option in your poll
The Devils can play and compete without any of those, but a coach is priority 1A, along with re-signing Parise.
Go Devils
Go Jets
Need to lose weight?
Can the Devils compete with their current team next season?
Compete for what a playoff spot. Yes
Compete for a cup. Doubtful.
Unless they get 70-80 more goals in the line up from last year.
No way they win the cup.
If you don’t believe me. The last 13 Stanley cup winners averaged 251 goals a year. We had 171 last season. Teams and numbers listed below.
2011 Boston 244 (5th)
2010 Chicago 262 (3rd)
2009 Pittsburgh 258 (6th)
2008 Detroit 252 (3rd)
2007 Anaheim 254 (9th)
2006 Carolina 286 (3rd)
2004 Tampa Bay 245 (3rd)
2003 New Jersey 216 (14th)
2002 Detroit 251 (2nd)
2001 Colorado 270 (4th)
2000 New Jersey 251 (2nd)
1999 Dallas 236 (8th)
1998 Detroit 250 (2nd)
Average 251 (5th)
I don’t know what kind of player they need. But they need to score more goals. However they come doesn’t matter. Maybe if Parise scores 40, Kovalchuk gets another 10, and The rest of the team kicks in another 25ish.
ahhh It might not even be remotely relevant. But kinda a neat stat anyway.
If you don’t believe me. The last 13 Stanley cup winners averaged 251 goals a year. We had 171 last season. Teams and numbers listed below.
The playoffs are always something of a crapshoot, especially with hot goalies capable of stealing a series their team otherwise should not win. As a result, you have a spectacular number of upsets over four rounds, and the team with the best record rarely wins the whole thing.
I think a better measure would be to look at the offenses on a broader scale, breaking it down by teams that make the playoffs and teams that miss the postseason. Some numbers (since the lockout, only):
2011: 16 playoff teams scored 3845 goals (average 240). 14 non-playoff teams scored 3025 goals (average 216). The highest-ranked team to miss the playoffs was Calgary (5th, with 250 goals scored). The lowest-ranked team to make the playoffs was Montreal (24th, with 216 goals).
2010: 16 playoff teams scored 3887 goals (average 243). 14 non-playoff teams scored 3100 goals (average 221). The highest-ranked team to miss the playoffs was Anaheim (8th, with 238 goals scored). The lowest-ranked team to make the playoffs was Boston (29th, with 206 goals).
2009: 16 playoff teams scored 4036 goals (average 252). 14 non-playoff teams scored 3129 goals (average 224). The highest-ranked team to miss the playoffs was Atlanta (8th, with 257 goals scored). The lowest-ranked team to make the playoffs was the Rangers (25th, with 210 goals).
2008: 16 playoff teams scored 3730 goals (average 233). 14 non-playoff teams scored 3117 goals (average 223). The highest-ranked team to miss the playoffs was Buffalo (4th, with 255 goals scored). The lowest-ranked team to make the playoffs was Anaheim (27th, with 205 goals).
2007: 16 playoff teams scored 4061 goals (average 254). 14 non-playoff teams scored 3185 goals (average 228). The highest-ranked team to miss the playoffs was Colorado (tied-4th with 272 goals scored). The lowest-ranked team to make the playoffs was New Jersey (tied-24th with 216 goals).
2006: 16 playoff teams scored 4256 goals (average 266). 14 non-playoff teams scored 3332 goals (average 238). The highest-ranked team to miss the playoffs was Atlanta (6th with 281 goals scored). The lowest-ranked team to make the playoffs was Calgary (28th, with 218 goals).
….
Is there a correlation between goal-scoring and making the playoffs? Absolutely…. and not just because the team that won the Cup in each of the last six years has been above the League average, too.
Is there a correlation between lack of goal-scoring and lack of playoff success? That’s fair to say as well — only one of those six “lowest-ranked team to make the playoffs” entries advanced past the first round.
At the same time, there isn’t an absolute correlation here. None of the teams that scored the most goals in the NHL in a given year won the Cup, and your numbers go back a long time. The last goal-scoring (team) champion to win the Stanley Cup was Pittsburgh back in 1992.
….
It’s fair to argue that the Devils need more goal-scoring in general. It’s fair to argue that they’ll need to score more goals to have regular-season and post-season success — even when they were winning almost every game for two months, most of those games were incredibly tight.
That being said, goal-scoring is not the Alpha and Omega of winning.
Well if your team only does one thing well and that is score goals. But fails in every other area. Its chances are probably not that great.
But it appears the magic number so to speak is 3.0 goals a game. I would be willing to bet if you took these number back even another decade they probably have the same pattern.
Now like the 2003 Devils. There is a chance a team could win the cup with average goal scoring. But I don’t like the 1 in 10 odds that seems to be showing here.
Well if your team only does one thing well and that is score goals. But fails in every other area. Its chances are probably not that great.
Winning all the way through the playoffs as a favorite is incredibly difficult in the NHL, certainly harder than it is in baseball or basketball, and perhaps harder than it is in the NFL as well.
The Presidents’ Trophy is not a guarantee of post-season success. Having the League’s top offense or its top defense is not a guarantee, either. You need to have a good team, a well-rounded team, a reasonably healthy team…. and on top of all of that you need to get lucky — whether it is avoiding a bad matchup, getting a call at the right time, not running into the hot goalie, etc. We’ve seen many post-seasons in recent memory where mostly lower seeds win through on one side of the bracket.
My argument isn’t that goal-scoring isn’t related to success. Just that goal-scoring on its own is a poor measure of how good a team is. There isn’t a strong enough correlation between scoring and team (post-season) success for it to be a major factor, but there might be other numbers out there that point the way.
the magic number so to speak is 3.0 goals a game
I’m not sure there would be a “magic number”. The style of the NHL has changed over time, so a number that is high at one time might be low at another. The first Devils’ team to make the playoffs (1987-1988) scored 295 goals that year, or 3.6875 goals/game. That number seems incredibly high when compared to present teams, but it was only middle-of-the-pack that season (10th out of 21 teams), with the highest-scoring team in the League potting 397 goals (or just under 5 GPG). On the other hand, the highest-scoring team this year put up 262 goals (or roughly 3.2 GPG).
The 2003 Devils didn’t score a ton, but they also were the stingiest team in the League — Marty Brodeur won both the Jennings and Vezina Trophies that year. I wonder what our charts, tables, and other assorted statistics might look like if we substituted “goals allowed” or even “goal differential” for “goals scored”. I won’t do the research right this second, however.
The first Devils’ team to make the playoffs (1987-1988) scored 295 goals that year, or 3.6875 goals/game. That number seems incredibly high when compared to present teams, but it was only middle-of-the-pack that season (10th out of 21 teams), with the highest-scoring team in the League potting 397 goals (or just under 5 GPG). On the other hand, the highest-scoring team this year put up 262 goals (or roughly 3.2 GPG).
In 1987-88 Edmonton won the cup. With 363 goals. 2nd in the league…..
so lets see:
1997 Detroit 253 (6th)
1996 Colorado 326 (2nd)
1995 Devils 136 (13th)
1994 Rangers 299 (4th) ….Devils were 2nd (So take that all you so called trap hating fools!)
1993 Montreal 326 (6th)
1992 Pittsburgh 343 (1st)
1991 Pittsburgh 342 (2nd)
1990 Edmonton 315 (5th)
1989 Calgary 354 (2nd)
1987 Edmonton 372 (1st)
1986 Montreal 330 (6th)
1985 Edmonton 401 (1st)
1984 Edmonton 446 (1st)
1983 Islanders 302 (14th)
1982 Islanders 385 (2nd)
1981 Islanders 355 (1st)
Average 4th.
So in the last 30 years. There have been 3 teams that finished outside the top ten in league scoring. 83 Islanders, 95 Devils, 03 Devils. (I guess this is kinda Ironic. Me trying to make a point and two of the three are Devils teams. Go figure)
Two other teams finished 8th and 9th.
So in 30 years. 25 of 30 Teams that won the cup finish 6th or better in league scoring. With an average placing of 4th.
I still think this is pretty telling. Be near the top of the league in scoring. At least in the top 10 if not top 5. Otherwise your chances of winning the cup are slim.
Kinda funny. All the stats people break down and really it just comes down to Goals.
Makes me feel even better about signing Kovalchuk. I don’t care how many times he turns the puck over if he gets me 50 goals.
unless those turnovers lead to 100 goals; that wouldn’t be a good thing.
Go Devils
Go Jets
Need to lose weight?
With regard to the Devils’ ability to compete with the current structure of their roster, I think we need to look no further than the second half of last season. They are clearly able to compete at a high level and I think the large amount of continuity from last years team could serve to actually help the team. Let’s also not forget that the Devils were playing that well without the aid of some guy named Zach Parise, who I figure can probably help with some of those scoring woes mentioned.
I think a big portion of things could come down to selecting the right coach to start the season with. We all saw how this team responded when JL returned behind the bench and as long as there is a coach with a sound defensive philosophy who will hold players accountable when necessary, I think this team can land a top-four seed heading into the playoffs.
Status quo.
I think we need to look no further than the second half of last season. They are clearly able to compete at a high level and I think the large amount of continuity from last years team could serve to actually help the team.
Yes, definitely the familiarity will help with a ton of issues; the team has all been through the Maclean era and could play with a huge chip on their collective shoulder. However, I feel people have to realize that this team is not as good as their second half. They’re much, much closer to it than say the first half of the season, but that was a prolonged period where they flipped whatever switch and said “let’s make the playoffs”.
Well, yeah
I don’t really think the Devils would sustain that pace for an entire season, as I don’t expect them to win the President’s Trophy (which they would have if you stretch the second half pace over the whole season). I do think they will end up with 100+ points and a decent playoff seed, though.
I agree with you that the disastrous start to last year helped galvanize a team that may have started to take regular season success for granted. They will all have a lot to prove this year and I’m hoping it shows in their play on the ice.
Status quo.
Of course
They can compete, once Lou fired Snape last season they tore up the league and that was without Parise. Jake and Ted being a year older should help quite a lot too. Only thing that concerns me is Marty being old and letting in a bunch of softies every game.
I’m picturing how much potential that second line you have listed has once Teddy and JJ are fully developed. If the Devils aren’t cup contenders this year, they surely will be in the next couple years. I think once we get Merrill and Larsson in the system, we’ll be pretty good. I’m extremely excited to watch what this team does in the next couple seasons.
by undersuspicion426 on Jul 5, 2011 8:39 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
It's a legitimate concern
But as joshd mentioned, we do have a few prospects who can potentially fill that void down the road. I’m pretty sure there’s supposed to be a bumper crop of free agent goaltenders next summer anyway.
Status quo.
Potentially, Rinne will be UFA next season. I’m also sure he will be the most coveted UFA goalie next season as well
most teams in the NHL have a ‘starter’ signed through 2012-13, or who will be RFA and will be retained by that team. The teams that don’t are NJ, Nashville, Tampa, Washington (maybe), and maybe teams like Phoenix and Florida where who knows about them. Everyone else has a guy they are paying a lot of money. I’m not concerned about finding a goalie in that market.
Potential
is great, and if we’re talking about our Defense, Im all for it. But in goal, I don’t want potential, I want realized talent/skill. It’s not a position to hope and pray for, it cannot be covered up by pairing him with another player, it needs to be absolute, or you end up looking like the Flyers.
there’s supposed to be a bumper crop of free agent goaltenders next summer
I think you would agree that this list says otherwise.
Hmm
Yeah, that certainly isn’t a fantastic list right there. Rinne, Vokoun, and a bunch of journeymen don’t exactly constitute the best class of free agents. Rescinded.
As far as potential in goaltenders, we can all agree waiting on a rookie goaltender is not an ideal spot to be in, but the Devils do at least have several different possibilities to fill the role (Clermont, Kinkiad, Wedgewood). If they are unable to make a trade or pick up a Rinne or Vokoun, I think we have to hope Marty sticks for another year or two while they are breaking in, or we will just have to go with the dreaded “stopgap plus rookie” scenario. Again, not ideal, but the Devils have protected mediocre goaltenders in the past (see: Clemmensen, Scott) and there’s always the chance you hit a home run with one of the kids.
Status quo.
All three goalies prospects of the Devils had tremendous seasons last year. Now every goalie can get hot and play great for some time which is why we watch how they do this year. If any one of them can continue their dominance, then that goalie is the front runner prospect who may have found enough consistency to be a goalie in the NHL.
I hope all you guys are right
and as the title of this article suggest, I am confident the Devils can ‘compete’ next season with our current lineup.
But my area of concern is Goaltending for the future, and although we have some good prospects (finally) in the crease, none of them have come close to the NHL yet, and the timing to do so may be at hand before they are indeed ready.
Many teams who have number 1 goalies already penciled in for the next decade or so also have a great prospects who are NHL ready right behind them (see Bernier, Lindback, Schneider). I would have no problem trading for one of these goalies or signing them once their contracts expire. Even if they are RFA’s, the deals they would sign would come with relatively minor penalties and few teams want to waste $2-3 million (if that) on a backup.
Isn’t Steckel still on the team? And I’m hoping Henrique makes the team too. And I’m sure we’ll get the usual McAmmond, Mair type guy competing for the 4th line in camp. My lines would go:
Parise Zajac Palmieri (you gotta figure the ZZ get reunited)
Kovy Elias Tedenby (Is Josefson good enough to play with Kovy?)
Zubrus Josefson Rolston (can the old guys keep up…)
Zharkov Steckel Clarkson (this line can shut people down!)
If we can get 35-40 combined goals out of Palmieri and Tedenby, we will be in good shape. If we get 20 goals or less combined from them, we’re in big trouble. They need to take the next step.
Is the Kovy and Zach experiment worth revisiting? The new coach will have to answer a lot of questions…and fast.
The division isn’t getting any easier for us.
na-na-na-na HEY! You SUCK!!
I actually think Josefson is good enough to play with Kovy. He had that nice drop pass to him against the Islanders and the sweet pass on the powerplay against Toronto so I feel like Josefson may be the perfect passer to Kovy. Don’t know who the RW would be though because Teddy and Kovy on the same line means awful defending.
Good call. JJ is fast enough to keep up with him too. He might even be faster.
What about:
Parise Zajac Tendeby (ZZTed?)
Kovy JJ Palmieri (Kovy worked well with Nick last season)
Zubrus Elias Rolston (keep the old man line together)
I hope to see Henrique, but I’m not sure if he serves any purpose on the 4th line. I’d also love to see Leblond back.
Going back to the earlier comments, has Clarkson earned a shot at being a Top 6 forward? Could Rolston benefit from playing with one of the kids?
na-na-na-na HEY! You SUCK!!
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