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Spending and Production by Position: The Numbers

Editor's Note: This is good, so it's on the front page. Enjoy.

Since the implication of the salary cap, the Devils have never gone into a season with an ample amount of wiggle room under the cap. However, this year the Devils have almost $6 Million going into September, according to Capgeek.com.  So maybe the Devils organization took some time and looked back at what they spent and what they got out of it,  Winning seasons? Division Championships? Stanley Cup(s)?

I decided to take a look back at what the Devils spent on each position since the lockout to see if they are spending their money effectively. Does the money the Devils spend on left wing really lead to the left wings having better statistics than their right wing equals? My results are after the jump

Star-divide

First off, I used any players who played at least 15 games in a season and then totaled the salaries by position, and then by year. This way we don't include players who are not actually full-time NHL players.  Second, I did not list any specific players because that would lead to a fan bias. That way the reader can only look at production by position, not by individual players.

The results show that the Devils spend the most at left wing, gasp. Starting from the 95-96 season through the 10-11 season, the Devils spent $87.8 Million on left wingers, compared to $62.0 on centers, $39.7 on right wingers, and $89.2 on defensemen.  In six seasons, the Devils spent $48.1 Million more at left wing than right wing, a little scary if you ask me.

Next I'll include the basic table of stats I compiled:

G

A

P

Salary(millions)

Center

358

582

940

$62.00

Defense

121

599

720

$89.20

Left Wing

425

556

981

$87.80

Right Wing

337

459

796

$39.70

Looking at the table, we can see there was significantly less production at right wing. Which almost all of us expected, the numbers just proved it. So the question now becomes, why doesn't Lou even out the spending at each wing? Lou may favor having a strong set of left wings than right wings. The Devils may have drafted better at left wing and therefore developed more quality left wings into their system than right wings.

Next we look at the centers, they have just 41 points less then the left wings and $25.8 Million less in salary. This makes it look as though we may be getting the best bang for our buck, over 6 seasons, at center.

Over six seasons, we spent $89.2 Million on defense, the most of any position. We also got the most assists and the least amount of goals, which doesn't concern me because defense is not paid primarily to score.  Overall, 720 points from a defense in six years doesn't sound terrible.  Then again, defense is paid for things that numbers have a hard time capturing.

The next table will be the same stats, except they will be divided by total games played, over the 6 seasons.  Not every position had the same number of games played due to injuries and the number of players at each position:

G/GP

A/GP

P/GP

$/GP

Center

0.145

0.235

0.379

$25,030

Defense

0.043

0.212

0.255

$31,620

Left Wing

0.276

0.361

0.637

$56,976

Right Wing

0.220

0.299

0.519

$25,863

I believe this table is more telling because it accounts for total number of games played at each position so you can tell exactly what the spending to production would be for each position. The way to read each stat would be as follows: for the upper left value, you would get 0.145 goals per game and it will cost you $25,030 dollars.

Now that we've done that we see that left wings only get 0.056 more goals per game for more than twice the price. If you value points, you see that they produce 0.118 points per game for more than twice the price. so in the course of an 82 game season, you will get about 10 more points out of the left wings.  Now it doesn't look like the large amount of money spent at left wing is really worth it.

Looking at the centers statistics per game, we see that the Devils may be getting the worst bang for their buck at that position compared to the first chart which looked as though they were worth the money. They are only producing 0.379 points per game for about $25,000. Which is even less than the right wingers. 

Its hard to compare the defense to the centers or either winger because they are getting paid less to score and more to defend, obviously. We are spending the second most on the defense position, after left wings. Initially I would have guessed we spent the most on defense, because there are more defensemen than any other position. They don't lead the field in any category, but the Devils are still getting about 0.255 points per game for only $31,620.

Of course this analysis leaves out the other characteristics, such as a good defensive statistic, which is hard to capture and things like face off percentages for centers. This analysis just helps to illuminate the offensive production and what its worth to the Devils.  Further analysis could examine season to season differences in what we pay each position.

Let me know whether you think the Devils need to change how they spend on each position or not!

All FanPosts and FanShots are the respective work of the author and not representative of the writers or other users of In Lou We Trust.

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interesting stuff

Great article. Hopefully Zach and Kovy perform the way they are capable this year and make us feel less st00pid for spending so much at LW.

"You're next." -Scott Stevens

by MikePelusoTears on Aug 30, 2011 10:00 AM EDT reply actions  

The spending numbers for left wing will be skewed higher, considering the three highest-paid players in franchise history (on a per-game basis) have been LWs: Elias ($6 million/season), Kovalchuk ($6.667 million/season) and Parise ($6 million this season).

The spending numbers for defense will also skew higher, as the Devils have had more “elite” talent on the blue line than they have had elsewhere: Stevens, Niedermayer, Rafalski just to name three. Even in today’s NHL, a solid 2nd-pairing defenseman fetches $3 million/season on the open market, while 2nd-line forwards don’t always make that (and 3rd/4th line forwards shouldn’t make it).

I don’t see a need to adjust spending to “normalize” what each position makes. You pay a player more if he’s worth more (in general and to your franchise) without regard to which position he plays. There’s no need for Lou to go out and spend a boatload on right wing just to spend more there — if there are better ways to spend the money at other positions, you spend it there. The Devils happen to be more talented and top-heavy (in a payroll structure) on left wing right now and less so on right wing. It would be nice to have a premiere right wing to “balance things out”, but there’s no need to try and force-feed the issue. If it happens, it happens…. and if it doesn’t, it doesn’t.

by acasser on Aug 30, 2011 5:02 PM EDT reply actions  

NHL salaries, like so many other things in life, follows the law of diminishing returns. The more you pay, the less you get for your money. A player paid the league minimum of $500K could reasonably be expected to score 15 pts. A player paid 6 times as much, or $3M, can’t be expected to score 6 times as much. If they’re a good value they might score 60 pts, not the expected 90 pts. The value gap would widen further for stars paid $6M or more – the leading scorers in the league would have to notch Gretzky-in-the-80s kind of numbers to “justify” their salary.

Furthermore, a star forward might get twice the ice time of that minimum-wage fourth-line player, so if you take that into account, a $6M scorer would have to put up 300+ pts a year in order to provide the same number of “points per dollar salary per minute played” as an energy player.

So the fact that the Devils spend as much on LWs as for Cs and RWs combined for a marginal increase in point production doesn’t bother me. As acasser noted, it just so happens that all of the Devils’ best weapons are LWs, and we’ve paid accordingly. I would love for the Devils to be stronger at C, but I wouldn’t advocate for the Devils to go out and try to equalize the money spent at LW, C, and RW.

by dr(d)evil on Aug 30, 2011 6:40 PM EDT reply actions  

That's a good point

Perhaps there’s a way to take the difference of role into account? Surely, there could be some way to weigh the accomplishments from a higher-paid player and, say, a rookie or a veteran on the NHL minimum?

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Aug 30, 2011 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

You could weight players by their career statistics, (<100 pts, 101-200, 201-500, 501+) and years in the league, then you would most likely see what Dr(d)evil is getting at.

by Matt Evans SNC on Sep 1, 2011 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

NHL salaries, like so many other things in life, follows the law of diminishing returns.

True

It also follows the rule of Supply and Demand. There are plenty of 3rd and 4th line caliber players that is why they go for 500k a year. Where as there are not that many 60+ point scorers who will get more money.

Also your not just paying X player to produce for your team. But your paying more for a player to keep them from producing for another team.

by NJDOhio on Aug 31, 2011 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree that the law of diminishing returns is in play here. If we want to go to the economics behind hockey, then the players rarely earn their marginal revenue product, or the amount of revenue the player brings into the team for just having him on the team. If we sign Parise long-term, he will likely return to being one of the best left wings in the world, but the only reason he will get paid millions is because Vanderbeek will make even more than what it costs to sign him. We have to remember that player’s get paid to put up points, which (should) lead to wins, which leads to increased attendance,sales, and all that jazz.

However, I would advocate the Devils smooth out spending in future years, IF the right players can be gotten a good value. I understand that the Devil’s take the best available talent that falls to them in the draft, and take the free agents that will most likely be worth the money.
but…
If you look at Anaheim’s line of Getzlaf-Perry-Ryan, they all feed off each other and make the opposing team put out their best defensive players anytime those three are on the ice. With three premier left wings, its a little easier to create a game plan against lines that are not elite. I believe that would lead to more success for the Devils.

by Matt Evans SNC on Sep 1, 2011 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

With three premier left wings, its a little easier to create a game plan against lines that are not elite.

I think it’s easiest to game plan against a team carried by one line. The trouble with having three great LWers is that you can’t distribute first-line ice time to all three of them. However, with Elias shifted to C that is no longer a problem for the Devils. If I’m an opponent I’d much rather face a Parise-Elias-Kovalchuk line and try to limit them to one goal in the 20 minutes that they play…facing the rest of the lineup for 40 minutes with Zajac and Tedenby as the main scoring weapons would be pretty easy.

It’s harder to face Parise, a relentless Corsi machine, for 20 minutes and to then have him followed by Kovalchuk, an explosive offensive whiz, for another 20 minutes. That’s 40 minutes where the opposition has to be on their toes defensively. They can try to put their top scorers out against Parise, but they’ll likely lose the possession/Corsi battle there, so more likely they’ll try to match their top scorers against Kovalchuk. If you pair Elias as Kovalchuk’s center that’s no easy task either – Elias drives the play away from the Devils’ net while Kovalchuk can make them pay on the counterattack if they’re a little too aggressive offensively.

by dr(d)evil on Sep 1, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think it’s easiest to game plan against a team carried by one line.

A better reference would be to look at the 2006-2007 Tampa Bay team the Devils dispatched in the opening round of the playoffs. That Lightning club was very much a one line team…. a very good trio of players, mind you, but one line nonetheless (St. Louis, Richards, and Lecavalier). The three of them had a terrific series against the Devils — 23 total points in the six games, plus an ATOI of 26:24 — but Tampa got next-to-nothing from the rest of their forwards (8 total points, 5 of them from Vinny Prospal) and I’m sure the Devils were a lot happier when they got to face the “weaker competition”.

Premiere talent stacked together on one line can be extraordinarily difficult to deal with, but such a club isn’t likely to have success over the long haul given the feast-or-famine nature of putting that many eggs in one basket.

The points made immediately above by dr(d)evil are absolutely correct, in my opinion.

by acasser on Sep 1, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn’t be surprised if these numbers weren’t so out of whack league-wide, if anybody were to add them up across the board. I think in general, RWs provide less production (with a few obvious exceptions, Mr. Ryan amongst them), than Centers and LWs. I obviously don’t have the data in front of me, but that’s the general impression I get.

Never mind. I just took all the LW, C, and RW league-wide from behindthenet.ca that played 20+ games (15 wasn’t an option). Points per 60 minutes, RWs average 1.62 P/60, C: 1.57, LW: 1.61. Surprised the heck out of me, although the numbers change slightly when you look at the true regulars (60+ games): LW 1.70, C 1.61, RW 1.72; Right Wings are still the most productive. So in this respect, the Devils are a huge aberration.

Go Devils
Go Jets
Need to lose weight?

by FrankG929 on Aug 31, 2011 12:04 AM EDT reply actions  

Just like the Penguins are a huge aberration when it comes to Centers, especially with Crosby at 3.98 P/60 while only playing 41 games. Malkin is a huge dropoff behind him at 2.17, but even Staal is ahead of the 1.57 figure, and Letestu right behind it at 1.56.

Elias was the only Devil above his position’s average (and Kovy for some reason is listed as a RW).

So this is what it's like to be an Islanders fan...

FIre John MacLean

by Marty 4 Prez on Aug 31, 2011 7:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

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