How much production can the New Jersey Devils expect from Petr Sykora?

by Matt Evans SNC on Sep 29, 2011 12:15 PM EDT in Devils Issues, Views & Analysis

One of the biggest question marks remaining for Devil’s fans is whether or not Petr Sykora will be offered a contract. Yesterday Matthew Ventolo took a look at the pros and cons of offering a contract to Petr Sykora. Today I’ll take a look at what we can expect from Sykora if he does get offered a contract.

Now, there are all of the unknowns, injuries, line mates, conditioning, but assuming Sykora stays healthy and in good shape, what kind of year can we expect of him? I will compare him to a few players who have reached 35 years old in the NHL and a few players who came back to the Devils organization after stints elsewhere.

Petr Sykora last played three full years at the NHL level from 2006 through the spring of 2009. He averaged 0.678 points per game, only 0.05 off of his career 0.724 PPG. I don’t know about you, but I for sure would enjoy Sykora on my team those years. The question becomes: can we predict if Sykora will return to this form in the 2011-2012 season?

Petr Sykora’s last three full years in the NHL
Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2006-07	Oilers	NHL	82	22	31	53	40
2007-08	Penguins	NHL	81	28	35	63	41
2008-09	Penguins	NHL	76	25	21	46	36

There is one player who is a bona-fida lock to play in the NHL this season after a few years in the KHL. When he puts on a Philadelphia Flyers jersey this October, Jaromir Jagr will become the active point leader in the NHL. Now I am not saying Sykora and Jagr are on the same level, they are not, they just have similar time off at the NHL level.

Jagr played in the Czech and Russian league during the lockout and came back with a stellar year posting 123 points. Jagr was not injured like Sykora was, but he still spent a year away from the NHL, like every other player that year. I also took a look at the year Jagr turned 35, as Sykora will this season.

Jagr’s 2006 – 07 Season (35 years old)

Season	Team	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2006-07	New York Rangers	82	30	66	96	78

Jagr had a great season and posted a 1.171 PPG, just short of his career 1.256PPG. This year Jagr will be entering the league after three years off in the KHL, and Sykora could make the Devil’s roster and come back after one year abroad. Will Sykora be able to keep his production up at the age of 35?

We can also look at three players who came back to the Devils after spending time on other NHL rosters. The three players who may draw close comparisons to what Sykora is facing if he makes it onto the Devil’s roster are Bobby Holik, Brendan Shanahan, and the crowd pleaser: Brian Rolston.

Bobby Holik:

Season	Team	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2005-06	Atlanta Thrashers	64	15	18	33	79
2006-07	Atlanta Thrashers	82	11	18	29	86
2007-08	Atlanta Thrashers	82	15	19	34	90
2008-09	New Jersey Devils	62	4	5	9	66

Bobby Holik turned 35 around the 2005-06 season and managed to keep his production constant for three years until he came back to the Devils. The three years leading up to signing with the Devils, Holik had 0.421 PPG compared with 0.568 career PPG. In the 62 games he played in 08-09, he had 0.145 PPG, a substantial drop off. Holik then had injury problems, mainly a concussion, but he was 38 years old. If Sykora’s return is anything like this, I would hope the Devils see it coming; there are too many young players who can put up at least double digit points this season.

Another recent comeback Devil was Brendan Shanahan. Shanahan sat out the first half of the NHL season waiting to come to terms with the Rangers. Then, when no one saw it coming, Lou worked his magic and signed Shanahan to the tune of $800,000. Shanahan turned 40 during his final season with the Devils and even attempted to come back for the 2009-10 season.

Brendan Shanahan:

Season	Team	Lge	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2005-06	Detroit Red Wings	NHL	82	40	41	81	105
2006-07	New York Rangers	NHL	67	29	33	62	47
2007-08	New York Rangers	NHL	73	23	23	46	35
2008-09	New Jersey Devils	NHL	34	6	8	14	29

Again we see a player who comes back to the Devils, and has a mediocre season. Shanahan’s PPG was 0.851 leading up to the move to the Devils, and 0.412 during the half season played with the Devils. Shanahan did have valuable leadership and all that jazz, but for $800,000, the Devils did not get what they paid for.

Last, but certainly not least, is Brian Rolston who came back to the Devils for the entirety of the 2008-09 season. Rolston actually turned 35 the year he returned to the Devils, just as Petr Sykora will be if he makes the roster. Rolston had 0.838 PPG during his three years in Minnesota, which dropped to 0.500 PPG upon his return to the Devils.

Brian Rolston:

Season	Team	Lge	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2005-06	Minnesota Wild	NHL	82	34	45	79	50
2006-07	Minnesota Wild	NHL	78	31	33	64	46
2007-08	Minnesota Wild	NHL	81	31	28	59	53
2008-09	New Jersey Devils	NHL	64	15	17	32	30

Brian Rolston did not have a break from the NHL like Sykora did, but his production did decrease with his return to the Devils. This leaves even more speculation as to what Sykora will be able to do. If Sykora makes the roster, I think we can expect about 15 goals and 20 assists from him.

After reviewing a few players who have gone through a similar process as Sykora, I find it hard to be optimistic about Sykora making the roster. I would hope the Devils have learned from the past and really, I mean really, evaluated Sykora. If Sykora does make the roster, then I hope he is willing to buck the trend and help the Devils come out of the gates scoring.

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Comments

Nice cautionary tale Matt. Quick question, any idea how the player’s role changed when moving from one team to the next, specifically TOI? I don’t remember what line Sykora was on in Pitt, but I seem to remember that Holik had a significant decrease in TOI between Atl and NJ, which partially explains the drop in point production. Moving from a line with Crosby or Malkin to the 4th line in NJ would most likely lead to a huge dropoff.

by NJHockey8 on Sep 29, 2011 1:01 PM EDT reply actions

Good point,
Holik’s average time on ice moving from Atl to NJ dropped from 15:58 to 10:11. So he lost about a third of his ice time, and averaged 0.500 less points per game. This could account for some of the drop in points. The same will most likely happen with Sykora, but I couldnt find who his linemates were in Pittsburgh.

by Matt Evans SNC on Sep 29, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m rather torn on the issue. The way I see it if he makes the team it’s a great story. It allows him to finish his career where he started, and he can potentially help our 2nd pp-unit and scoring from the bottom 6. At the same time though if he makes the team chances are Henrique doesn’t, and Clarkson is relegated to the 4th line, (especially when Zajac returns.) I think for him to make it he probably has to outplay Henrique.

by ChampaChamp on Sep 29, 2011 1:50 PM EDT reply actions

Comparing Sykora to players such as a 40 year old Shanahan, Holik, a 3rd/4th line center later in his career, and former MVP and future hall of famer Jagr does not make any sense. I do not see any correlation between any of the players mentioned above, except for the fact that Sykora may be playing with Elias as Rolston did the season before.

If Sykora plays on the first line with Elias and Parise, he will most likely put up 45-55 points in a full season of games coupled with the fact that he will play on the powerplay. Parise made Langenbrunner into a 69 point player in 08/09 and Zajac a 62 point player in that same year. The year after Langenbrunner posted 61 points, and Zajac posted 67. Their is no reason Sykora cannot put up 45-55 points during a full season with Parise. Zach makes the players around him better, and Sykora has the offensive ability to find the net, and create opportunities. Let’s not forget how well him and Patrik Elias clicked during the early 00s with Jason Arnott.

The worst case scenario is that when Zajac comes back Sykora moves down the depth chart to the 4th line, and still provides a boost of offense on the powerplay. I see no risk in signing Sykora to a 1-year low money deal. Their will be injuries during the season, and having a player with the offensive talent of Sykora will add experience and insurance.

Sykora had a 2.5 million dollar cap hit on Pittsburgh in 08/09, and a 1.6 million dollar hit for Minnesota in 09/10. If he does get a contract offer, it should be around 1 year for 1.25 mil. At that price, this is an absolute bargain, especially because the team has cap space to deal with.

This should be a simple decision. If Tedenby is not going to be moved to right wing and put on the first line, Sykora will be signed.

by DiffuseTheBob on Sep 29, 2011 3:25 PM EDT reply actions

Well said. A 1 year deal for somewhere around 1 million is a nice low-risk potentially high-reward option for a depth signing like this.

As soon as Zajac comes back, Steckel needs to go.

by thejerseydevil on Sep 29, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions

If he does get a contract offer, it should be around 1 year for 1.25 mil. At that price, this is an absolute bargain, especially because the team has cap space to deal with.

You give that kind of guaranteed money to players who are expected to produce in a guaranteed role. You give that kind of guaranteed money to a player when there is some competition for his services. Petr Sykora is not that guy; rather, he’s a training camp tryout competing for a job. You give him a one-year deal at or around the League minimum…. and if that isn’t good enough for him, you wish him well and wait to see if someone else is interested in giving him serious coin. For a guy who had trouble finding an NHL job two years ago (Minnesota didn’t sign him until mid-September that summer), for a guy who apparantly had little NHL interest last year, for a guy who apparantly had little NHL interest this year…. there’s no need to break the bank.

As for the concept that this team has money and cap space, there’s no reason to squander it in such a cavalier fashion. If Sykora is viewed as a bottom-six forward and “power play specialist” if/when the team gets healthy, there’s no need to splurge to such a degree unless the money is burning a hole in your pocket. A team that needed to spend the million to reach the salary cap floor could make such an argument and have some legitimacy to it…. the Devils are not that team.

by acasser on Sep 29, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Agreed. Would rec, but no such option on mobile.

by SonicJoe on Sep 29, 2011 6:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

For a guy who has averaged 25+ goals a season his entire playing career I am surprised he doesn’t have a NHL contract. Why is that?

Bad attitude? …possibly
Poor Defense? … ah maybe not the best
Injury prone? … no
To old? … soon but not yet

One thing he has historically always done well is scoring goals. That is something this team desperately needs and hasn’t had that many guys who proved to score more then 25 goals.

There is almost no doubt in my mind if Sykora stays healthy and gets quality minutes on a top line that he isn’t going to continue to score at the same pace he always has. 25+ Goals.

by NJDOhio on Sep 29, 2011 10:53 PM EDT reply actions

That’s precisely the problem. Why should he get quality minutes on a top line at all? Sykora’s not all that quick, and he’s not that good in his own end. Given that lots of teams match power for power, those two factors are going to present a problem for New Jersey should he get a top 6 role. It does the Devils no good if he could possibly hit 25 goals with them if it’s going to lead to that line allowing the same or more. At the same time, if he can only be effective with offensive players, then a bottom six role even with power play time may not be appropriate. Throw in the fact that past nostalgic moves by the team hasn’t worked out well, and I’m skeptical of signing Sykora and expecting him to be a major contributor.

As far the comparables go, I don’t think it’s inappropriate who Matt used. Sykora coming back isn’t that unlike Holik, Shanahan, or Rolston in that they’re former Devils coming back at an older age. I don’t know if there are many players in their mid-30s who attempted a NHL comeback after playing in Europe for a season, much less any who succeeded at said comeback. I could be mistaken, but that’s the only other metric in my mind.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Sep 29, 2011 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Kovalchuk isn’t good in his own end either and I would think you sign a guy like Sykora to be a goal scorer. (and in no way would I expect Sykora to put up Kovalchuk numbers)

I’m not worried about the Devils giving up goals. I’m worried about them scoring them.

by NJDOhio on Sep 30, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Kovalchuk is fast and he can learn to be better in his own end. Moreover, Kovalchuk is in the prime of his career and has more offensive talent than Sykora ever had. I’m not sure why you’d bring the two up – especially in admitting that Sykora isn’t expected to put up Kovalchuk numbers.

Anyway, if a player leads to more goals allowed than he helps score, then he’s not really improving the team.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Oct 1, 2011 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions