An Excellent Rental: New Jersey Devils Acquire Alexei Ponikarovsky from Carolina
by John Fischer on Jan 21, 2012 12:00 AM EST
in Devils Issues, Views & Analysis
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The New Jersey Devils had some action tonight without playing a game. The Devils acquired Alexei Ponikarovsky from the Carolina Hurricanes this evening. As confirmed by NHL.com, the Devils traded a 2012 fourth round pick and defenseman Joe Sova to get the big winger from the Canes.
In short, I think the Devils made a really good deal here. It's a rental, but an excellent one given what kind of player they acquired and how little it cost them.
Ponikarovsky is a left winger who has broken into the league first as a Maple Leaf and then bouncing around to Pittsburgh, LA, and Carolina since 2010. Ponikarovsky really struggled as a King, putting up only 5 goals and 10 assists in 61 games. He's enjoying a rebound season where he's already matched those point totals in 49 games. According to his profile at NHL.com, he's got a big 6'4", 224 pound frame. He's not going to score a lot, but he can definitely chip in on offense. Short of a big slump as a Devil, he'll likely get at least 10 goals and 20 points this season. Outside of David Clarkson (and technically Travis Zajac), I'm not sure who else among the third and fourth liners on New Jersey can do that. I don't even know who else among that bottom six would get over 100 shots outside of Clarkson. That Ponikarovsky can shoot and produce is a reason that this is a good upgrade.
In taking a quick glance at some advanced statistics, Ponikarovsky has been a very good third-line left winger when it comes to possession. Just look at his numbers at Behind the Net from this season and the last four. His on-ice Corsi is just great; he has pushed and continues to push the play forward. Even when he was struggling as a King, he was a positive on-ice Corsi player at even strength. The ice time and quality of competition are in line with someone on a third line and that's perfectly fine. He didn't have to play the toughs or eat big minutes and he won't have to in New Jersey. DeBoer can maintain his ice time and usage and he would still provide a benefit going forward.
The Devils' bottom six could definitely use any kind of benefit at this point. Let's be frank, the third and fourth lines haven't been all that useful on most nights. The third line left wing position has been in flux since Mattias Tedenby clearly didn't justify his position there. Even in the Devils' game against Boston, DeBoer tried out center Steve Zalewski there to see how he would do. Now, the Devils don't have to search for a fill-in forward on that line. They can now slot in a veteran who has experience and success in that position. The team now has some more depth at wing in terms of quality and quantity, which they really didn't have a lot of to begin with. This move should also free up Tedenby in the future. The Devils can now send him down to Albany to get his game back in order as Ponikarovsky holds down the third line winger spot. The Devils made this trade to answer a need and they've got a guy who can do meet that need.
That in of itself is good; but what makes this a deal an excellent rental in my eyes is that very little risk was taken on for a small cost. A fourth round pick isn't worth much in general; even after this deal, they still have Toronto's fourth rounder so they don't lose much in that regard. Joe Sova was signed out of college and while he's still developing, he wasn't really pushing his way up the team's deep depth among defensemen. I'm not sure what Carolina's system looks like, but if they don't have a load of defenders, then Sova will probably have a better shot at moving up there. Maybe he becomes a player, maybe not. Last and not least, Ponikarovsky is on a one year, $1.5 million contract according to CapGeek. If he doesn't mesh well with the team or isn't all that effective, then the Devils can let him go free. The Devils won't be paying him so much more money for the rest of this season, so he's not adding much to the books. If he does well, it probably will not take much to retain his services.
We may see those services as soon as tomorrow. Hopefully, he can get to Newark for tomorrow's game. He did play in Carolina's 3-0 win over Washington (12:04, 1 SOG), so he'd be really thrown into the Philly game with fatigue and suddenly playing on a new team against a rival right away. Lou isn't fazed by these possibilities. In fact, he expects that he'll play if he can get to Newark in time per Gulitti's post on the trade.
In summary, Tom Gulitti's headline about the trade says it all: the Devils got Ponikarovsky for third line depth. Ponikarovsky has been quite good as a third liner and the Devils gave up very little to get him. If he can mesh well with David Clarkson, then the team's third line can be far more formidable. He can win his match-ups and help drive offense on the third line, which is what I expect to some degree. If not, then he's at least a big body who can play hockey along with throwing checks. I really do like this trade.
What is your opinion about the deal? What do you expect out of Alexei Ponikarovsky? Do you think Lou will make more deals, and if so, what do you think he'll do? Please leave your answers and other thoughts on Ponikarovsky in the comments. I'd like to thank Matt V for getting up a FanShot of the news as it happened; and I thank you for reading. (Quick Update: I added a poll for easy reaction.)
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John,
How much does the timing of Tallinder going down have to do with this? Do you think Lou shopped for a Dman, couldn’t find anything good and thought this was the next logical step?
I have respect for most sports fans with 2 exceptions: NY Ranger fans who grew up in New Jersey, and Dallas Cowboy fans who can't name the capital of Texas.
I’ll field this: No, I don’t think so. The Devils have gotten 0 production out of their bottom six forwards besides Clarkson, and it’s an area that had to be improved. I don’t think Lou will make a move for a defenseman.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
Agreed, Most of the rentals out there won’t improve the blueline – the Devils are replete with defensemen that aren’t bad, about NHL average. We can all dream about a Weber or Suter type stud Dman to upgrade our blueline but the trade cost would be astronomical for a player the Devils would have no chance of signing without letting Parise walk.
I would say Tallinder’s injury has nothing to do with it. The Devils have gotten nothing from their third and fourth lines outside of David Clarkson. Tedenby clearly hasn’t taken the next step in development; and no one else filling in there has been anything more than a fill in.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Jan 21, 2012 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
Big body, good around the net, has been out of sorts for the last few years. Perhaps the right system and the right coaching will get him back to being a really effective player in front of the net.
@DigDeepNYR
"It's just pain." -Brandon Prust | "In Prust we Trust."
Blueshirt Banter
great move by Lou here
now if it isn’t too much to ask I would like some blue line help, just another body with the injuries and all that
more to come...
I agree with the analysis, but my intuition is that this a move to set up depth in order make another, potentially bolder move, in the days ahead.
any background on Ponikarovsky?
Good info in your piece, thanks. Please let us know if you gather anything on intangibles, such as why other teams have parted with him, if any forwards have especially enjoyed playing with him (or the opposite), whether or not he has a reputation as a team player, if he’s been a popular teammate, etc. Of course he’s fully acclimated to the NHL, but there’s no guarantee he gets along with teammates (that’s relevant—anyone recall Zherdev in Philadelphia last year?).
Seems like a very good trade. (but an ominous sign for Tedenby…)
Teddy21
The one main knock on him by fans
is that he’s a big body but he doesn’t use it. (i.e. not physical along the boards, driving the net, etc)
He was a legit 20 goal guy (when playing top 6 minutes) for many years, that is probably his high end ceiling now.
I think 10 goals might be a bit high on expectations for less than a half season if he’s playing in the bottom 6, but who knows, maybe he’ll find chemistry.
No no, dig UP stupid.
by nhlcheapshot on Jan 21, 2012 9:15 AM EST up reply actions
You forgot to warn them about the offensive zone penalties……
Also obligatory: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oINuqLe1brY
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
I got this from a serious Toronto fan:
Ponikarovsky is the epitome of “he’s got potential”. Big, strong, great hands, and yet never seems to do enough. Seems lazy at times on the ice, his stats prove it. Decent numbers offensively, and also sporting a -12. I was always a fan of his potential, but similar to his counterpart (while in toronto) Nik Antropov….nothing ever amounted from his potential. He has played on 4 teams since being traded by Toronto to Pittsburgh, and lasted an average of 42 games per team. That should say enough.
That is not a ringing endorsement, but let’s hope he’s all business with NJ.
Teddy21
I would say most of his penalties are more so brain cramps then lazyness. I’d say he lives up to his potential considering he was a 4th round pick. His “potential” came from his size, (never used) and hope because he played with Sundin when he was young. Though I have to say the Poni Sundin Antro line was a lot of fun to watch,
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
I just want to say that we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves here and run Teddy out of town because of this. I still don’t see a reason to ship him out, and I know many of you disagree with me on that, but the kid needs some time to develop and get consistent time with quality linemates before we tell him to pack it up.
I would much rather see Palms thrown into a trade package for a blueliner than Teddy. That’s just me though.
by SatanicStickholders on Jan 21, 2012 12:44 AM EST reply actions
I agree and I like Teddy. But its pretty clear teddy is not liked by DeBoer all that much, and its all pretty clear that he cannot crake the top two lines on this team, which is where the minutes he needs to develop are. Dont be surprised if the Devils make a big move for a top blue liner if teddy is the key prospect where are forced to part with.
No, the minutes where players develop are on the 3rd line, and that’s where Tedenby has 1 goal all season long. It’s not a surprise that DeBoer doesn’t like him – he’s not producing any results. Nor will Tedenby being traded bring back a top blueliner.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
Tedenby and two other players gets you a top blue liner. the two others would be one NHL ready player and another prospect. I think teddy needs more than 12 minutes a game to play his style. he got more last year and produced with it.
Tedenby needs to be carried at this point – he doesn’t take enough shots when he gets it, his attempts to battle along the boards are few and far between, and his defense makes Clarkson look like a Selke candidate. There’s no reason short of favoritism where he should get more minutes; he hasn’t earned them despite the many opportunities to have done so this season.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Jan 21, 2012 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
If Tedenby and two other players gets you a top blue-liner, Teddy is not the headline player in that package. Rather, Tedenby is the “another prospect” that fleshes the package out to three players, with both the “NHL ready player” and the “top prospect” being superior players at this point in time.
Based on his play this season, Tedenby has low trade value. He could get you a trade deadline rental, or he could get you a prospect who has overstayed his welcome in another city, but he isn’t fetching you anything wonderful on his own.
I would argue that if he wasn’t a 1st round pick Tedenby wouldn’t have been in the NHL at all this year based on performance.
I don’t think that’s true – it’s not about his having been a 1st round pick, it’s about the skills he brings. Plus, honestly, the Devils haven’t had anyone beat him out, sad as that is. It’s why this Ponikarovsky deal is such a good one.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
The thing that strikes me is, all of this chicken littling about our team’s supposed impending economic implosion, and, as TG tweeted a short while ago:
By the way, this was second trade Devils have made this season that added to their payroll.
The Devils owe tens of millions of dollars. This trade adds somewhere between $550,000 and $725,000 to the Devils’ payroll. It’s a drop in the bucket.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
And the previouds trade also added money. They have tons of debt. Anything over a million dollars isn’t just a drop in the bucket, and the two trades together add more than that. If it was a one-time thing then I can see dismissing it that way, but they’ve gone out and spent more money than they had to twice now and the result is a not-insignificant amount of
by Dr. Witticism on Jan 21, 2012 7:31 AM EST up reply actions
They have added around 1.4M in salary. That’s still less than 2% of what they supposedly owe.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
I’d say it was a good pickup for you guys especially considering what you gave up for him. We’ll miss Poni even though he wasn’t here long and he certainly can contribute in the bottom six for you. From Carolina’s point of view, I think this move was made primarily to open up a spot for our young wingers to showcase what they have at the NHL level. We have a good number of wingers that have spent a while developing but we had too many bottom 6 guys like Poni on one-way contracts that were sort of blocking them from getting called up. Solid move for you guys if you need some help from 3th/4th line winger position.
"I'm not going to waste my time with Tuukka Rask" - Cam Ward
thanks for the feedback
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Jan 21, 2012 9:11 AM EST up reply actions
as lou and managment sees it.....
any move that makes the team better now, the more likely we are to make the playoffs. And thus proving the organization with much needed playoff revenue. So like Triumph44 said its a drop in the bucket for what could end up being a strong, harder, and better devil team come playoff time…….and money for the organization to payoff its debts…(and re-sign the captain hopefully)
He’s not the top-6 right winger I was hoping for, but this is a solid move. Trading from a position of strength (D prospects) and just a fourth rounder….while so many rentals will go at the deadline for 2nd rounders.
He’ll slot in nicely alongside Josefson/Zajac/Henrique and Clarkson. Definitely has a good set of hands and is a guy that has scored about half a point per game over his career, despite his struggles in LA and Carolina. Remember he was actually brought into Pittsburgh to be Sidney Crosby’s winger at the time, so he was once viewed as a top-6 winger once upon a time. A little older at 31, he’s clearly still a good Corsi player even if he’s lost a bit of his offensive spark.
It does help the 3rd line a tremendous amount. Doesn’t help the 4th line, though, as long as PDB keeps sending Janssen out there. I don’t understand how he isn’t viewed by the management as a huge liability at both ends of the ice. A 4th line of Carter, Josefson, Mills could be much more effective and plenty tough enough.
This was definetly my reaction first. Another LW??
That said, once I read the article and mulled it over, It kinda made sense to me. Not a horrible move, not much risk.
by Chris Calabrese on Jan 21, 2012 7:00 AM EST up reply actions
Nope. The team has an open spot on the third line at LW. He’ll fill that in.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Jan 21, 2012 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
My unique question : Can he play RW ?
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Jan 21, 2012 7:00 AM EST reply actions
He played RW for years in Toronto, so yes.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
cool, thanks
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Jan 21, 2012 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
Just wondering about this, if a player is a good Corsi player, doesn’t that mean he’s good defensively? As he’s good enough to push the play forward instead of playing in his own end? Since most Cane fans that I have seen said he wasn’t great defensively, where does the great Corsi come from?
And Kovalchuk speeds away, great moves, busting through, DID YOU SEE THAT?
because know one knows what they’re usually talking about when they label someone a good or bad defensive player. Ponikorovsky is currently a -12 so hence he MUST be a horrible defensive player.
nice one
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Jan 21, 2012 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
Likewise, he has a good Corsi, so he MUST be a good defensive player.
You can all decide for yourself whether or not he is a good defensive player as us Southerners know nothing about hockey. The problem with Poni is that he can have good initial positioning and he can fight for the pucks along the boards, but he is one of the slowest players on the ice and he will be burned by quick forwards consistently.
Like all statistics, Corsi is rather general. Keep in mind that he has been playing on either the fourth line or a line with Jeff Skinner and Jussi Jokinen for much of the season..
+/- ratings are completely overrated statistics. That’s what was Zelepukin saying.
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Jan 21, 2012 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
Given that Corsi measures the differential in shooting attempts, if one has a considerably positive value, then it stands to reason that he’s been beating his match-ups up. His opponents aren’t attempting as many shots as his line. It could be possible that he’s not much of a defender, someone so offensive that they just out-do the opposition. Given that he’s maintained positive values across multiple teams for multiple seasons as well as his past production, he’s not likely to be a sieve or an offensive dynamo to counteract the defense. Maybe he just can’t play against toughs – but he won’t have to in NJ regularly.
He’s been on the Canes only for this season and the Canes have been a bad hockey team. I would think most Canes fans don’t think much of anyone on their team as good defensively.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Jan 21, 2012 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
I like the move in the sense that it adds a decent bottom 6 forward. I just think that a 4th and Sova for him was a bit too much.
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by Kevin Sellathamby on Jan 21, 2012 10:39 AM EST reply actions
with all the Devils defensive propsects I think it’s a good deal.
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Jan 21, 2012 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
Too much? Unless you really believe Sova’s going to be somebody, I’m not sure how?
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Jan 21, 2012 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
and I don’t see how anyone can think that, he turns 24 in 5 months and wasn’t able to crack NJ’s top 7 in Albany. He might become a solid minor leaguer but he was an enormous longshot to make the NHL.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
sorry
Larsson, Gelinas, Urbom, Taormina, Corrente, Merril, Burlon… We don’t need Sova here
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Jan 21, 2012 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
Larsson, Gelinas, Urbom, Taormina, Corrente, Merril, Burlon… We don’t need Sova here
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Jan 21, 2012 11:00 AM EST reply actions
With hindsight i think with this trade we can say good bye to Zharkov. Moreover, it looks like the whole Albany team could be called up before he could get a shot. The Devils management seems to not trust him anymore.
sadface#
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Jan 21, 2012 11:03 AM EST reply actions
That’s probably a crazy statement, I’m guessing they are giving him a lot of AHL time just so he can hopefully light it up.
And Kovalchuk speeds away, great moves, busting through, DID YOU SEE THAT?
Yeah that’s the half full side of the glass, to give that much time to developp, that would mean they’ve got some high expectations about him in this case… Maybe they think that he could turn in a 3rd liner à la John Madden.
I hope you are right.
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Jan 21, 2012 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
It took Brylin until he was 25 to become a true NHL regular. Just because he’s being “banished” in the short term doesn’t mean he won’t contribute in the long term.
I hope we’ll see Zharkov again later in the season, especially if Josefson gets put on the 4th line, but I think Zharkov’s offensive limitations will keep him as a 4th line/extra forward in the NHL.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
At the cost, it’s a more-than-reasonable move for Lou to make. Even better, if it’s clear that the trade isn’t working out in a month, Lou might be able to turn around and deal him somewhere else, even if he has to take less back than what he gave up. If Ponikarovsky can give us a legitimately solid third line, isn’t that all we really want?
So what uniform number does he get? The Devils aren’t likely going to give out anything above #30, so that removes most of the possibilities. Considering who is already on the roster, who is injured, and which numbers are retired, you’ve gotten rid of most of the rest. I’ll speculate and say he gets #18 under the assumption that the Devils will hold #21 (Tedenby) and #12 (Palmieri) open at least for the near future.
NJ has already assigned him #12.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
He’s got already one..
maybe he will a different guy for us
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Jan 21, 2012 6:32 PM EST reply actions
Today’s Fun Fact™ – Ponikarovsky Category:
Did you know Poni was traded from Toronto to Pittsburgh two years ago in a deal that involved Martin Skoula? And that Skoula lasted less than 24 hours north of the border before he was traded to the Devils?
(No, I have nothing substantial to add. I just wanted to throw this factoid out there while it had any relevance at all.)
Poni a good move
Lou has solved several glaring problems by getting poni. The third line scoring issue for one. Also the second pp unit he could be used in front of the net with his size and tip ins, screans etc. I like this move
by pappa zit on Jan 23, 2012 11:32 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Parisian
If you are GM. Do you risk losing Parisian for nothing after free agency, or do you make a deal before trade dead line for a player and draft picks? Lou is in a very tough position concerning the future. I’m not sure zp is worth the 7-8 mill range he will most likely be offered from rangers, wings, …
by pappa zit on Jan 23, 2012 12:48 PM EST via mobile reply actions
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