Analysis of The New Jersey Devils Lack of Goals

by Matt Evans SNC on Jan 26, 2012 4:44 PM EST in Devils Issues, Views & Analysis

The Devils struggled into the All-Star weekend with a lack of scoring. While the NHL is on pause for some skills competition, Peter DeBoer has some thinking to do. He can start with questions like: How do we score power play goals? What happened to our penalty kill? And how can I get my top players to score more at even strength? The players should be able to recoup and refocus on hockey since there is not a single New Jersey Devil participating in this weekend's events. In my opinion, if the Devils are trying to ship out Parise for draft picks and what not, it would have been nice to have him show off in the all star game and hopefully whet the appetite for a few more GM's.

However, this post isn't to speculate on Parise, but to figure out where the Devil's scoring has went. In the last three games, the Devils have put up one goal each game. Now, three games isn't the end of the world for a scoring drought, but its concerning. After the jump I'll break down the scoring trends for our top five goal scorers and hopefully shed a little more light on the situation.

Let's throw out some numbers to get your mind thinking about the Devils and shooting. This year, the team has taken 1331 shots in 48 games, averaging 27 shots a game. Not shabby in the NHL. With all these shots, the Devils have lit the lamp 129 times, good for 18^th in the league in goals for. For those of you who did the math; the Devils are shooting at 9.69%.

Theoretically, this means the Devils need to take 31 shots a game to get to that magical three goal mark. The funny part about this number, it's the exact number of shots we took against Boston and Philadelphia in the last two games. So we can either say Ryan Miller and Ilya Bryzgalov are good (meh), Devils scorers have cooled off (more on that coming), or that the shots taken aren't quality scoring chances. Ryan Miller was on his game a few days ago, Bryzgalov on the other hand was alright. Have the Devil's just been peppering on shots once they get into the offensive zone and not set up scoring chances? You tell me.

Since I can't prove scoring chances, I looked to see if I could prove that the Devils are cooling off. As a team, they are cooling off dramatically.

October [11 games]: 2.2 Goals per game

November [14 games]: 2.7 Goals per game

December [14 games]: 3.2 Goals per game

January [11 games]: 2.4 Goals per game

The Devils are scoring at a poor rate in January. DeBoer thinks the Devils are an "elite team", but no elite team in the NHL scores 2.4 goals per game. One idea on why this is happening is that the Devils may be concentrating on not allowing any more shorthanded goals. This should be mainly on the defense, but perhaps DeBoer had a conversation with Lemaire about how to play a more defensive oriented game? There have also been a few slight injuries, but nothing that should make a dent in goals per game like this. The Devils have officially cooled off in my mind.

I took a look at our leading goal scorers in order to see if there were any answers there. I graphed their goals over all 48 games and added a linear trend line in order to show a normal scoring pace this season is for each player. If the player is over the linear line, they are scoring over their season average and if they are below they are scoring less than average. Below is a chart of the last ten games and the goals these players have scored. (The lines are color coded and the green and red lines are on top of each other, sorry!)

Top 5 Goal Scorers over the Last Ten Games

The top five goal scorers for the Devils, in order, are Ilya Kovalchuk (19), Patrik Elias (18), Zach Parise (15), Adam Henrique (13), and Petr Sykora (12). The only player under the "average scoring lines" is Zach Parise. Maybe the talk of trades and/or signing with the Devils is affecting his on ice production. (Remember, he is just a human.) Ilya Kovalchuk on the other hand is scoring way above his pace for the season thus far. The others are slightly above their pace. So what is going on with the Devils and their scoring?

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Comments

David Clarkson (16)

"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"

by Elektrostal_Kid on Jan 26, 2012 4:47 PM EST reply actions

yeah what the hell man?

by EB555 on Jan 26, 2012 5:09 PM EST up reply actions

Leader in points not goals. my bad. Good catch.

by Matt Evans SNC on Jan 26, 2012 6:38 PM EST via Android app up reply actions

Zubrus (12)

"Its the letter D"

by Rory B. Bellows on Jan 26, 2012 5:39 PM EST reply actions

Kovy is below his career average

I can be dumb with math so bear with me. I think you’re measuring their scoring pace for January vs. their average scoring per month over the season, correct? So what I’m talking about here is a different issue. But anyway.

Kovy’s career scoring average is 41 goals, which includes last year’s 31 and some lower totals for his first 2 seasons. He is on a pace for 36 this year.

For fun, I calculated his average goals in full seasons for Atlanta and NJ, and his average plus-minus per year with each team. With Atlanta, he averaged 42.5 goals a year and a -12. With NJ, he’s averaging 33.5 goals (assuming the 36 for this year) and -23.5 (assuming his projected plus-minus for this year).

If he was tearing it up defensively or piling up a ton of assists, then I could live with 9 goals less a year. But he’s not. NJ isn’t getting their money’s worth. I know, I know, things could turn around. Starting with line combinations that made more sense, but like many others here i’ve beaten that issue to death.

by Felon on Jan 27, 2012 11:42 AM EST reply actions

The fact that Kovalchuk is a better a 2 way player since the Devils era is not even questionnable. I don’t know what do you want to prove with those numbers, because you’re just bringing out a 3 months collapse under the worst coach of the Universe.

With Lemaire Kovalchuk was definitely a + ratings player. Under Deboer he gets minuses but our best defensive forwards (Parise, Zubrus, Elias) too. It’s a team problem now, the defense is struggling, goaltending has not bee good neither.

"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"

by Elektrostal_Kid on Jan 27, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions

A better two-way player? Maybe, but hardly a good one. He had 31 goals last year but his -26 was the worst on the team, and everyone played for same coaches that he did. And can you look at the way he defends this year and honestly tell me you think he’s a good two-way player? How many times in a game do you see him hit somebody, try to get the puck away, or pick off a pass?

If they’d stop pretending that he does everything well, stop double shifting him, and pair him with a center who can help him (Elias), maybe he’d score more goals AND have energy left over for defense.

by Felon on Jan 27, 2012 1:13 PM EST reply actions

Still, what the hell do you want to prove with that ? the team is better when Kovy is on the ice, period.

And please do not interpret my comments. When I say he’s better, it’s better than in Atlanta, I never said he was good. But with his offensive upside, he just has to be reliable defensively, and he’s been lately.

"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"

by Elektrostal_Kid on Jan 27, 2012 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

He had 31 goals last year but his -26 was the worst on the team, and everyone played for same coaches that he did.

He was -29 under Maclean, but he was +3 under Lemaire and + 9 for the last 27 games of the precedent season.

"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"

by Elektrostal_Kid on Jan 27, 2012 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

Fair point, but I’m pretty sure that most Devils were a solid plus under Lemaire since they had the best record in the NHL in the second half.

He’s -11 this year, the worst of the top 6 forwards. He’s at or near the top of the NHL in giveaways. He’s been making more bad passes and mistakes this year than I remember him making in the past. Like I said in my first post, I don’t think it’s entirely his fault. He needs to play on a line built to his strengths, starting with a real playmaker like Elias as his center. This guy is a huge investment, and I don’t think he’s been handled right. They treat him like the god of hockey instead of what he is, probably the league’s best shooter but with weaknesses that have to be worked on or compensated for.

by Felon on Jan 28, 2012 1:08 PM EST up reply actions