It's Never Too Early to be Thinking Playoffs

by FrankG929 on Feb 15, 2012 9:49 PM EST

Many of you may remember my Playoff Death Watch Page from last season. With this season being quite a bit more positive, I'll be taking an early look at exactly what it will take to clinch a playoff spot. More "After the Jump."

With the Devils being 7 points up on 9th place Washington, their playoff spot is obviously not set in stone, but one has to admit their chances are looking good. The Devils are one of 6 teams in the East that are technically already in control of their own destiny. Obviously, they're not going to win all the rest of their games (even though they don't have to), but they are at the point where they need less points to clinch a playoff spot than are available to them.

The Devils' magic number is currently 46 (discounting the ROW tiebreaker). Meaning they need 46 points between their gains and Washington's losses to finish with 1 point more than the Capitals. With 26 games remaining, 23-3-0 gets them there no matter what anybody else does. OK, so you're saying that's unreasonable. You're right, the Caps won't win all their games, so the Devils won't have to win 23.

What if Washington gets 2/3 of the points available to them (that's 109 points over a whole season, quite a run), and round up, meaning 35 points in their 26 games. That brings them to a total of 96. For the Devils to get to 97, they need a record which garners them 29 points. That's 14-11-1 (.558). That's .029 WORSE than they've done all season so far.

OK, so you're thinking Washington won't play .133 better than they have all season. What happens if they remain at the same pace (again, rounding up) as they have so far. They're at .545 right now. Over their last 26 games that would be 29 points (and .558). That puts them at 90. For the Devils to get 91 (23 more), they need to be 11-14-1.

I think the actual results will be somewhere in the middle, what if we split the difference and give the Caps 32 points (.615), ending the season at 93. For the Devils, that means they need 26 to get to 94. 13-13-0.

Everybody currently below the Caps would obviously have to do better than that to give the Devils a run. As Freddie Prinze used to say; "Looooooking Gooood!"

Poll

What do you think of the Devils Playoff chances?

They'll definitely make it based on this information.

129 votes

It's still a stretch even considering this.

10 votes

I'm an eternal pessimist (or Ranger or Flyer fan) and still don't think they'll make it.

1 votes

140 votes | Poll has closed

All FanPosts and FanShots are the respective work of the author and not representative of the writers or other users of In Lou We Trust.

Tweet Comment 25 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Rather than playing with the numbers, I look at how the Devils are playing. The level they are playing at recently will get them into the playoffs. However, I would like to see more intensity (hitting) out of the players. They also need to be better 5 on 5.

by popp on Feb 16, 2012 1:06 AM EST reply actions

If I saw this earlier I would’ve put up a “Magic Number” counter in today’s links.

Hell on Ice/In Lou We Trust/Twitter
Remember when everyone had more goals than Scott Gomez?

by Kevin Sellathamby on Feb 16, 2012 8:14 AM EST reply actions

I like to check Sports Club Stats myself to see what the Devils chances are of making the playoffs. Per their calculations, going 13-11-2 for the rest of the year should guarantee us a spot in the big dance, so that’s not too far off of your 97 estimate.

It’s nice to know that we’re at Magic Number time.

by Marty 4 Prez on Feb 16, 2012 8:35 AM EST reply actions

With the current state of play, playoffs would be a definite for this team but in the NHL anything can happen.

ESPN, Mike Francesa, NY Post, NY Daily News, Fox Sports = Propaganda
Blue and Orange, Green and White, Red and Black

Twitter: @BlueChill1123

by BlueChill on Feb 16, 2012 6:30 PM EST reply actions

OK, who's the wise guy?

One no vote? Have we been infiltrated?

Go Devils
Go Jets

by FrankG929 on Feb 16, 2012 7:59 PM EST reply actions

good summary

My favorite part is this:

What if Washington gets 2/3 of the points available to them (that’s 109 points over a whole season, quite a run), and round up, meaning 35 points in their 26 games. That brings them to a total of 96. For the Devils to get to 97, they need a record which garners them 29 points. That’s 14-11-1 (.558). That’s .029 WORSE than they’ve done all season so far.

Even if the Capitals overperform down the stretch at .666 (up from .545 ) and the Devils slow wayyyy down to .558 (from .720), the Devils will still get the 8th seed.

I’d hate for the Devils to finish 14-11-1 or 13-13-0 and take only the 8th seed. Ftorek and Julien were fired for that and it just smacks of hopelessness. The playoffs are the “second season” but come on… gotta have some momentum. Well I guess losing 13 straight and then winning 13 straight is the right kind of momentum…

by Alan Wright on Feb 16, 2012 8:22 PM EST reply actions

If Washington gets that many points, isn’t it possible — if not likely — that they’ll overtake Florida and secure the 3rd seed? Considering the Devils aren’t likely to get a Top 3 seed, wouldn’t that remove Washington from the equation and oblige us to worry about Florida and/or Toronto instead?

only the 8th seed. Ftorek and Julien were fired for that

Ftorek and Julien weren’t fired for the on-ice record. Julien was dismissed because he “lost the locker room”. Ftorek was fired because the Devils were slumping badly and Lou wanted to shake up the team…. and with eight games to go in the regular season, options to do so were rather slim.

by acasser on Feb 16, 2012 8:57 PM EST up reply actions

Let’s say Washington wins out, that puts them at 113 points. The Devils need 46 points to guarantee finishing ahead of them for the 8th seed.

For Washington to win out and not get the third seed, that means that Florida would have to go about 24-1-1 (these assumptions of course are ignoring any match-ups against each other). This makes it essentially a wash as to which team affects our magic number, so we can stick with Washington as they are currently on the outside looking in.

Of teams on the outside looking in, Washington’s 61 points in 56 games puts them as the “team to beat” for the magic number. Winnipeg is next at 58 points in 58 games, but obviously that means our magic number to finish ahead of them would be 39.

by Marty 4 Prez on Feb 16, 2012 9:09 PM EST up reply actions

As I understood it, FrankG’s purpose with this was to show the minimum that the Devils have to do to stay ahead of the current 9th seed, Washington, under three different scenarios (Wash finishing at .666; at .558; and .615). Nothing prevents Wash, Tor, and Florida from improving and pushing the Devils out altogether.

So, yeah, if Wash did that well (.666) they may well secure the #3 by winning the SE. Good point. If the Devils dipped to .558 they may land in 8th place perhaps… which I think is where Florida would be in the standings if they weren’t the #3. Or Toronto.

As to Ftorek/ Julien: I was referring to the slumping part, not the seeding part. I think the Devils were first in the Division in both cases. I didn’t know it was a locker room problem with Julien. I thought it was a slumping problem in both cases.

by Alan Wright on Feb 17, 2012 11:30 AM EST up reply actions

I don’t think momentum going into the playoffs matter as much as how you’ve done over the 82 games.

Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines

by Triumph44 on Feb 16, 2012 10:51 PM EST up reply actions

Overall record is obviously an important indicator of a team’s ability and consistency going into the playoffs.

That said, which is the stronger indicator of deep playoff success: the 82 game season or “second half” momentum/ recovery? (I.e., not 41 games, more like 30-35 games after the ASB).

by Alan Wright on Feb 17, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions

82 game season – gabe desjardins did a study of this. i think he found that games 1-20 were less relevant than games 62-82 though.

Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines

by Triumph44 on Feb 17, 2012 12:43 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks. Here’s one example, and maybe the one you meant.

In a word, no, late-season performance does not have predictive value for the first round of the playoffs. If you want to start worrying, you really want to look back at least 35 games.

by Alan Wright on Feb 17, 2012 1:05 PM EST up reply actions

And this one.

As you can see, second-half performance has much more predictive value than first half performance. There’s more useful information in a team’s last 30 games than there is in their first 70. The reason? Deadline deals.

…

Again, we’re capturing a very high predictive value around the trade deadline. Though deadline deals have a very limited impact on team performance, teams do improve when they deal.

Interesting stuff. Thanks again for the suggestion.

by Alan Wright on Feb 17, 2012 1:15 PM EST up reply actions

nope

Maybe 3 or 4 straight wins going into the playoffs would be good from a big mo’ perspective, but after 13 straight? You’re just asking for a crash.

Go Devils
Go Jets

by FrankG929 on Feb 16, 2012 11:22 PM EST up reply actions

Winning 13 is the “right kind” of momentum… compared to “losing 13 straight” and slipping to 8th place… That’s all I was going for.

I’d much rather them stay on their current trend through the next 25!

by Alan Wright on Feb 17, 2012 11:18 AM EST up reply actions

League-wide Magic numbers

Just found this site that shows all of the current magic numbers in the NHL. It also shows projected standings at current season Win % (we’d be fifth seed going to Philly) and projected standings going at the win % based on the past 10 games (we’d be fourth seed hosting Pittsburgh).

http://zorak.best.vwh.net/nhl/

by Marty 4 Prez on Feb 17, 2012 11:45 AM EST reply actions

Just wondering, but who would we rather face in the first round, Philly or Pittsburgh? I mean, if Crosby is back then it has to be Philly right? But if he’s not then who?

And Kovalchuk speeds away, great moves, busting through, DID YOU SEE THAT?

by KovyisLove on Feb 18, 2012 12:07 AM EST reply actions

The Rangers only lead the others contenders in the division by 9-11 pts with 1-2 games in hand, many of which are head-to-head matches. (The Devils have 3 games remaining against them and 2 each against PHI and PIT). I wouldn’t be surprised if these games swing the standings some more because with a minor slump by the Rangers you could see a basically 4-way tie, and regulation wins against those division opponents could keep it very close.

So, I’m not ready to say it’s NJD-PIT-PHI in 4-6 seeds as we’re seeing now. One of those 4 teams will slow down or speed up, right?

But, to answer your question: I’d least like to see Boston and Philly in the first round, then Florida, New York, and then Pitt. Ottawa and Toronto or Washington all seem equally “least” worrisome.

by Alan Wright on Feb 18, 2012 8:31 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Even if they have Staal and Crosby back, I’d sooner face Pittsburgh any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

I know Philadelphia’s goaltending leaves a lot to be desired. I know Pittsburgh probably has a better defensive corps top-to-bottom (when fully healthy). But Philadelphia is so deep and talented up front that they scare me to death in a playoff series. Short of Martin Brodeur channeling his Vezina Trophy winning days for two weeks during a series with them, I don’t know that the Devils have enough firepower to keep up with the Second Rate Rivals.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh is a one-line team, maybe a two-line team if they split Crosby and Malkin. I have more faith in the Devils’ defensive play that they can neutralize one or both and still get some goals of their own.

….

I’m with Alan. The two teams I do not want to see early in the playoffs are Boston and Philadelphia, because I don’t know that the Devils have the talent or depth to effectively match up with either.

by acasser on Feb 18, 2012 12:31 PM EST up reply actions

I'll take p'Burgh

2 years ago when the Flyers goaltending was suspect, they wiped the Devils out in 5 games and made it to the finals. I still think their goaltending isn’t sufficient to take them far, but fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

Go Devils
Go Jets

by FrankG929 on Feb 18, 2012 3:44 PM EST reply actions

To be fair, the Devils just slumped at the wrong time: they shot at around 2%. No one’s winning a series at 2%.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog

by John Fischer on Feb 19, 2012 9:31 AM EST up reply actions

true, but my point was I was one of the few who preferred they played the Flyers specifically because of that weak goaltending. Not all of a team’s poor shooting percentage is on them, but some has to be due to the other team’s better than average goaltending success.

Go Devils
Go Jets

by FrankG929 on Feb 19, 2012 9:08 PM EST up reply actions