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Are the Devils a Deep Playoff Team Upfront?

When I think about playoff teams that end up going deep in the NHL playoffs I think of the ability to score in any situation. In the past this may not have been true, but in today's NHL you need a few knockout scorers. In the regular season you can rack up points without being prolific scorers because teams heat and cool and take some games less serious than other. Teams like the Florida Panthers, who have a negative eleven goal differential this season, can hold a playoff spot. In the playoffs, it is important that your scoring can come from anywhere. In 2008 and 2009 the Penguins and the Red Wings made the Stanley Cup Finals both times and they both had three strong scorers. Detroit had Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen, Pavel Datsyuk and Pittsburgh had Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Marian Hossa. The Blackhawks had Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, and Patrick Sharp in 2010. Last year, Boston had David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, and Brad Marchand and they won the cup. Convinced?

Since this is a blog about the Devils, I'll tell you the Devils DO have the three scorers they need to win a cup. The Devils have three stars that happen to be surpassing 50 points this season. Ilya Kovalchuk and Patrik Elias have surpassed 50 points with 56 and 54 respectively. Zach Parise is knocking on the door of the 50 point threshold with 49 points. AND all three players have done this in fewer than 57 games. Read on after the jump to see how the Devils top three forwards and their supporting cast stack up for a deep playoff run.

Star-divide

I know many of you will have differing opinions on how a championship team is built whether its defense first or offense first or goaltending. I'm just looking at a unique facet that I can quantify and prove to you nay-sayers that the Devils aren't a long shot team to win the cup. The Devils top three scorers combine for 0.98 points per game. This means that Parise, Kovalchuk, and Elias are all good for a point a game if they played 100 games. That's a pretty dangerous top three. So how does it compare to the top three scorers for the last four cup winners? I'm glad you asked.

Detroit '08 = 1.05

Pittsburgh '09 = 1.10 (Crosby and Malkin had monster 100+ seasons)

Chicago '10 = 0.90

Boston '11 = 0.77

By this measure, the Devils can be in the talk of having a top trio in the NHL. This trio may also help propel the Devils to a good playoff run. As we all know, this isn't always the case. So I did more digging and built this little table for optimistic Devils fans.

Regular Season Points Scorers

Team/Year

10+

20+

50+

Detroit '08

17

11

4

Pittsburgh '09

19

12

2

Chicago '10

18

13

5

Boston '11

19

13

4

(Devils '12)

15*

10*

4*

*Projected

The only anomaly I see in this chart is that the Devils have slightly fewer 10 point scorers. However, my projection could be off by about 2 skaters either positive or negative. Therefore, the Devils may have 17 players who reach 10 points. Other than that the Devils scoring looks very good on paper. Having four 50+ point producers on your team is splendid, especially when a rookie (Adam Henrique) is projected to be one of those scorers. I remember a time when the Devils had a rookie who amassed over 50 points and helped on the way to a Stanley Cup, but who knows if he's any good these days.

Brief Aside: If the Devils do make a deep playoff run, they will be more appealing financially. They will also have more wiggle room to sing any UFA's in the summer. That is definitely a good thing.

As with any analysis of a team, there is lingering thoughts. The largest concern for me is that the Devils top three scorers average over 20 minutes on the ice per game. Zach is young and will be fine. Kovalchuk is not in his early twenties anymore and will likely face a small amount of fatigue in the playoffs, especially with his huge frame. Elias... isn't as quick as he once was, but I feel he never tires. That could be my fandom kicking in and blinding me.

How do you feel about the Devils scoring? Do you think this analysis needs something added to it or do you feel it holds water? Thanks for reading!

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Chart Labeled Incorrectly

The chart shows “Goal Scores” I believe it is supposed to be “Point Scores”. The Devils will have 0, 50 goal scores.

by sthompson1984 on Feb 16, 2012 11:30 AM EST reply actions  

my bad

It was late last night when I finished this up. Thanks for catching that.

by Matt Evans SNC on Feb 16, 2012 11:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Zach is young and will be fine. Kovalchuk is not in his early twenties anymore and will likely face a small amount of fatigue in the playoffs, especially with his huge frame. Elias… isn’t as quick as he once was, but I feel he never tires.

Can’t help but feel all of this is off. Kovy is only a little more than a year older than Parise, yet somehow he’ll be more tired? If anything, he’ll be the one of the 3 who will be fine.

by skly27 on Feb 16, 2012 11:36 AM EST reply actions  

I agree here. Kovalchuk is an absolute workhorse and could probably play more than he does. I know that the playoffs are more intense physically than the regular season, but I think Kovy can handle it.

Check out The Crash Line Blog: www.thecrashline.com

by Alamoth on Feb 16, 2012 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

I just feel the playoffs are more demanding physically. Kovalchuk is more physical then Parise and will more likely tire because of his style of play,.Parise is 195 lbs and Kovy is 230 lbs. Kovy also plays more minutes. He is a workhorse now, I agree, but I can’t see him maintaining that play during a deep playoff run.

by Matt Evans SNC on Feb 16, 2012 11:47 AM EST up reply actions  

I gotta disagree on multiple levels.

(1) Parise is actually the more physical player. There’s no one in the league that does a better job of wedging himself in there to separate a puck from its carrier. He gets into the corners more than Kovy does and does a lot more stopping and starting.

(2) It’s not like Kovalchuk is an extra 35 lbs of fat. He has the extra muscle to push that extra weight. His size allows him to absorb hits better. It’s like body blows in boxing. Continually getting hit makes you tired. Getting hit by a 220 lb defenseman takes a lot more out of Parise than it does out of Kovalchuk.

(3) Kovy plays the big minutes because he can. Because he is an insane world class skater who doesn’t get tired after a 1 minute NHL shift and who recovers faster than anyone in the league.

by dr(d)evil on Feb 16, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Well said

"I never knew how someone dying could say he was the luckiest man in the world. But now I understand." -Mickey Mantle's farewell address

by LaserVortex888 on Feb 16, 2012 1:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Considering Kovalchuk has played 9 playoff games in his entire career I highly doubt he’ll be fatigued come playoff time.

by DiffuseTheBob on Feb 17, 2012 12:57 AM EST up reply actions  

Kovalchuk's 2nd Half Numbers

And if you cannot see Kovalchuk maintaining his level of play during a deep playoff run, how can you explain his monster numbers post-all star break last season and this season?

I’ll save you the trouble of looking them up:

Ilya Kovalchuk 2010/2011 Statistics
Pre-All Star Break Numbers: 48 games played, 14, Goals, 15 Assists, 29 Points, 3 GWGs
Post-All Star Break Numbers: 33 games played, 17 Goals, 14 Assists, 31 Points, 6 GWGs

Ilya Kovalchuk 2011/2012 Statistics
Pre-All Star Break Numbers: 43 games played, 19 Goals, 21 Assists, 40 Points, 3 GWGs
Post-All Star Break Numbers: 8 games played, 6 Goals, 10 Assists, 16 Points, 0 GWGs

by DiffuseTheBob on Feb 17, 2012 1:07 AM EST up reply actions  

6 GWGs in 33 game, those are elite numbers

"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"

The Royal Half - "Today, Ilya Kovalchuk had 3 goals while yesterday Dustin Penner ate 3 pancakes. Well played, Dean Lombardi."

by Elektrostal_Kid on Feb 17, 2012 5:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Parise-Henrique-Kovalchuk

This is the kind of line you need to carry you deep into the playoffs. At their best, I don’t think Parise-Zajac-Langenbrunner was nearly as good.

Check out The Crash Line Blog: www.thecrashline.com

by Alamoth on Feb 16, 2012 11:39 AM EST reply actions  

Kovy + Elias was working great. I don’t understand going back to this line, which ends up forcing Kovy to handle the puck more, which is not the best scenario in terms of both possession and fatigue factor for Kovy.

I think the Devils are better off with Kovy + PAtrik, and Zach + Zajac, with RWs to be determined. If Zajac isn’t physically capable of 1st line duties due to the long layoff, then keep the Zach – Patrik – Kovy line, which was killer. Granted, the second line is then kind of iffy, but we could at least expect a lot of scoring from the first line.

To beat a dead horse, a viable 4th line is crucial. Zharkov – Carter – Bernier or even Zubrus would work for me.

by Felon on Feb 16, 2012 12:43 PM EST up reply actions  

You don’t enjoy Kovy getting hat tricks?

by SatanicStickholders on Feb 16, 2012 2:06 PM EST up reply actions  

That was meant to be in reply to Felon.

by SatanicStickholders on Feb 16, 2012 2:06 PM EST up reply actions  

You are saying it as if Kovalchuk has gotten multiple hat tricks this year

And Kovalchuk speeds away, great moves, busting through, DID YOU SEE THAT?

by KovyisLove on Feb 16, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I should have used the sarcasm font. Apologies.

by SatanicStickholders on Feb 16, 2012 4:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Didn’t Patrik get the primary assist on one of those goals? Their chemistry has been great.

by Felon on Feb 16, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Elias has been playing great with Kovy

by SatanicStickholders on Feb 16, 2012 4:06 PM EST up reply actions  

they both are wonderful together = chemistry

"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"

The Royal Half - "Today, Ilya Kovalchuk had 3 goals while yesterday Dustin Penner ate 3 pancakes. Well played, Dean Lombardi."

by Elektrostal_Kid on Feb 17, 2012 5:34 AM EST up reply actions  

The contrarian

On the contrary, teams that rely very heavily on one line are often home after the first round of the playoffs.

Does anyone remember the 2007 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals against Tampa Bay? The Lightning had the best two players in the series (Lecavalier and St. Louis) and a spectacular line (those two plus Brad Richards) who were out there for 25-30 minutes a night. All three had a very good series from an offensive standpoint (Richards and St. Louis each posted 3-5-8, Lecavalier put up 5-2-7). And while Tampa’s big line was a dominant factor in the series, it didn’t really matter. The Devils won the series in 6.

It’s nice to have the monster line, but without the depth of scoring that Matt talks about above it doesn’t mean a whole lot. You can nullify that monster line in a lot of ways, whether it is a hot goaltender or a coach playing the matchup game or a defense with a stud like Zdeno Chara (i.e., a guy who can play 30-35 minutes at a high level himself) opposing them at every turn. One line is not going to carry a team as far as you’d like it to, no matter how good the individual players on it.

by acasser on Feb 16, 2012 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Once playoff time comes, the Devils big questions will be on Kovy and Marty. Can Kovy actually relax and not try so hard during the playoffs where he becomes a selfish player yet at the same time play at the highest level we all know he can? Does Marty have the endurance and enough gas in the tank to get passed the 1st round and further?

In Lou We Trust: SBN Blog of the New Jersey Devils

by Matthew Ventolo on Feb 16, 2012 12:48 PM EST reply actions  

I don’t think Kovalchuk will be a question. He’s proven himself in international competition that he can perform at a high level while under pressure, and he was one of the better Devils in the Flyers series in 2010, when he put up 6 points in 5 games. Plus, Kovalchuk is signed for 14 more seasons. Eventually he’ll have a chance to prove himself in the playoffs.

The bigger question will be Zach Parise. The last playoff series vs the Flyers he posted 1 goal, 3 assists in 5 games. The series before he posted 3 goals and 3 assists in 7 games vs the Hurricanes in 2009. He has won 2 playoff series in 6 NHL seasons while on the Devils, and one came in his rookie season when he was not a major factor on the team.

If Zach Parise thinks he is worth 8 million dollars a year he better show up and have a series where he is the best player on the ice. He has disappeared since his excellent series against Tampa Bay, and that was in 2006. He has not has a multi-goal playoff game in 24 games. If Zach Parise wants to prove he is truly an elite player in this league, he needs to score in the clutch, have a big game, and push this team further than it deserves to go. He needs to be the player that we all make him out to be.

Of course, none of the above matters if Martin Brodeur cannot play solid enough to keep the Devils in close games. With goals at a premium come playoff time, Brodeur cannot afford to allow the soft/fluke goals he has been accustomed to allowing this season, and in recent playoffs past.

by DiffuseTheBob on Feb 17, 2012 1:37 AM EST up reply actions  

I just want to get to the 2nd round at the least, It sounds like I have low expectations but its been forever since we’ve been past the first.

"Its the letter D"

by Rory B. Bellows on Feb 16, 2012 12:49 PM EST reply actions  

From TG's blog

Neighbor Bob made a good point related to this topic:

You’ll have to Ctrl-F search for it if you want to read the entire context.

Kovalchuk’s $6.666mil cap hit ranks as the 29th highest cap hit in the NHL. At this point, it is hard not to say Kovalchuk hasn’t been one of the most valuable offense-men in the league this year.

Kovalchuk has 56pts in 51 games. That’s 1.1 points per game.

In comparison, take a look at these players with higher cap hits and a lower point per game average;
- Eric Stall has a caphit of $8.2m. He has 44 pts in 57 games. Good for a .77 goals per game average.
- Alex Ovechkin – $9.4m – 44pts/53gms – .83ppg
- Rick Nash – $7.8m – 39pts/57gms – .68ppg
- Scott Gomez – $7.54m – 8pts/27gms – .29ppg
- V Lecavalier – $7.7m – 45pts/56gms – .80ppg
- Dany Heatley – $7.5m – 40pts/56gms – .71ppg
- Jarome Iginla – $7.0m – 45pts/56gms – .80ppg
- Brad Richards – $6.6m – 39pts/57gms – .68ppg

With that said, Kovalchuk ranks #1 in icetime for forwards and 16th overall. I’m going to venture to say Kovalchuk has been a STEAL thus far.

Kovy’s 1.1 PPG is 6th overall in the league. While he’s well-paid and gets a lot of ice time, he’s also very productive. He has proven the critics wrong, again, and is thriving on it. Parise and Elias are not far behind in their PPG either, as you’ve noted.

With an ensemble cast like Henrique, Clarkson, Zubrus, even Sykora, and potentially Ponikarovsky… I think the team can make a run because they have threats from many players. But, they need threats from more lines and players returning fully healthy. I think this is why so many people on this blog nit-pick their preferences for line combinations.

The Devils need more balance on the 3rd line and a relevant 4th line. I hope between Bernier, Ponikarovsky, Zajac, Palmieri, Tedenby, Carter, etc we’ll see that down the stretch. Palmieri is back up, practicing in Newark. Hard to say whether Tedenby or Carter will be.

by Alan Wright on Feb 16, 2012 1:07 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Gomez lol

"I never knew how someone dying could say he was the luckiest man in the world. But now I understand." -Mickey Mantle's farewell address

by LaserVortex888 on Feb 16, 2012 1:41 PM EST up reply actions   3 recs

That’s an understatement.

by Alan Wright on Feb 16, 2012 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Side note: I wonder if it’s useful to use this summary as a guide to calculating Parise’s cap hit WHEN he re-signs (not “resigns”) with the Devils.

Currently, Kovy’s cap hit is $6.66 mil/ year. Both Parise and Elias’ cap hits are $6.0 mil/ year. Do what you can to keep them together, paid commensurate with their PPG without breaking the bank. At the very least, Zach’s contract should match $6.66 million because his PPG matches Kovy and he is central to the future of the team, both as Captain and as fan favorite.

But to go back to the original spirit of the post: the Devils need more depth/ breadth from points/ lines and some contribution from the D.

With LL adding Bernier, Ponikorovsky, Foster, cycling in Palmieri again (he’ll be hungrier now that he’s been sent down?), and maybe picking up Zidlicky… I have the impression he’s shopping for more contributions than what we’ve seen from the 3rd and 4th line.

by Alan Wright on Feb 16, 2012 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I hope he’s shopping for any contributions from the 4th line

"I never knew how someone dying could say he was the luckiest man in the world. But now I understand." ~Mickey Mantle's farewell address

by LaserVortex888 on Feb 16, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Look on the bright side: it would be hard for the 4th line to get any worse. We’ve already seen Boulton and Janssen together a number of times, and the schlubs centering them have ranged from Ryan Carter to Tim Sestito to Brad Mills.

by acasser on Feb 16, 2012 5:46 PM EST up reply actions  

True, true. But how does LL shop for 3rd liners around this time of year? If anyone knows, i’d assume it’s you, DrDevil, Murdoc, etc.

“In the best of all possible worlds”… Palmieri, Tedenby, Bernier, Josefson, Zharkov (prob not) +1/2 whomevers, etc would be enough for a competent 3rd and 4th line. But, that’s not been the case under PDB.

So what are they looking for to fill the hole? If we see it, then LL sees it and is shopping for some additions for down the stretch. I think. Unless he thinks Albany has most of the answers after the rosters expand next month.

by Alan Wright on Feb 16, 2012 11:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

But how does LL shop for 3rd liners around this time of year?

By making trades similar to the Ponikarovsky deal. Identify teams that are sellers, and look for guys who can step in and be part of the chorus and the big dance numbers instead of pining away for the Leading Lady.

by acasser on Feb 17, 2012 9:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Well I do trust he’ll find undervalued role players like that, Moneyball style.

Even if Poni’s points never become stellar, he’s working hard against decent competition (as I recall from the TOI vs. Rangers) and keeping it in their end. Points aside that might be enough to give Henrique’s and Elias’ lines enough.

I guess we have 2 wks to see if he makes another acquisition like that.

by Alan Wright on Feb 17, 2012 12:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think they really see a hole. The third line is alright now, and PDB seems like he always wants at least one enforcer on the 4th line. When Zajac comes back, I think Bernier ends up on the 4th line, so it’ll be him with JJ and Cam/Boulton. PDB won’t change that enforcer role, so they’ll always have a two-man 4th line that can’t really generate much offense. The only real option is to try to upgrade Bernier, but Lou seems more focused on the D.

by otamamij on Feb 17, 2012 10:49 AM EST up reply actions  

PDB won’t change that enforcer role, so they’ll always have a two-man 4th line that can’t really generate much offense

I think this is a key point. I think the Devils already have the personnel to get contributions from the 4th line – when fully healthy they’d have Josefson, Bernier, Carter, Palmieri available to play the 4th line. Any combination of those players would be a nice mix of grit and skill as well as of veteran hunger and youthful energy.

But as long as PDB insists on plugging Janssen or Boulton into the lineup, the 4th line will be pretty ineffective. The only way Lou can fix that is to fix his own mistakes -which were signing those two goons in the first place – by trading them away or demoting them to the minors.

by dr(d)evil on Feb 17, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions  

The only way Lou can fix that is to fix his own mistakes -which were signing those two goons in the first place – by trading them away or demoting them to the minors.

He can also let time take its course without doing anything else. If he lets the rest of the season play out, Janssen becomes a free agent and Boulton has one more year left on his deal. Then, we simply have to keep our fingers crossed that he doesn’t sign another guy to complement Boulton.

There’s a place on the team for an enforcer. There’s even a place in the lineup for one on some nights. At the same time, there certainly is not a good reason to have two of them (on the NHL roster or in the lineup), at least as far as I can see.

by acasser on Feb 17, 2012 5:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting point. Maybe they don’t see a hole.

I used to think PDB wanted a fourth-line enforcer too, but I was split over whether it was his preference (as you say); whether he did it to clear Clarkson to play instead of fight (my pet theory); that Lou was exercising some influence over who getting called up from Albany (as others have said Lou has final say on). Under the last theory, PDB would be going with the options presented to him.

By contrast, a Tedenby-Josefson-Palmieri (or with Bernier) 4th line wouldn’t have enough experience or toughness for the big leagues, but they might actually produce more points than a Janssen or Boulton line. There would be no enforcer.

by Alan Wright on Feb 17, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions  

I like your protect Clarkson theory. It makes sense, and if that was the idea, it’s working. But it’s also the reason for the drain that is the 4th line.

I don’t think it’s Lou’s idea. I don’t remember seeing such a dedication to having an enforcer on the roster while Lemaire was here, and I don’t know why Lou would have changed now (unless he just thought he could control PDB more than Lemaire).

by otamamij on Feb 17, 2012 1:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Lou’s the one who keeps signing these guys (some to multi-year contracts—Boulton, Peters) so he’s certainly got at least a little something to do with it.

by elesias on Feb 17, 2012 3:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, Lou has at least that much to do with it.

My original comment about Lou’s influence is based this comment by acasser regarding Zharkov:

Ryan Carter is hurt, that’s why he isn’t playing. As for Vladimir Zharkov, I have to believe that someone doesn’t want him with the parent club and therefore he continues to toil away in Albany. Either Lou Lamoriello has a reason for not having him around, or Peter DeBoer has asked Lou for different forwards. (Yes, Lou has final say on personnel…. but if DeBoer has a specific guy he wants or doesn’t want, I imagine he has some input into the process.)

The open question is whether PDB wants the 4th line enforcer or whether he’s playing with the cards he has been dealt. Lemaire might have had more sway than DeBoer on personnel decisions. It’s hard to tell when NJD has so few leaks.

I suppose one could analyze PDB at the Panthers and the minors to see how he worked his lines. But, as I recall he didn’t have a free hand in Florida either.

by Alan Wright on Feb 17, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Don’t forget ol’ PL3, who somehow got a three-year deal out of Lou. And yet, Lamoriello managed to get a tangible asset (a 5th round draft pick) for him last summer.

by acasser on Feb 17, 2012 5:37 PM EST up reply actions  

If the 4th line ends up with getting a ride of the 2 riders of the apocalypse for the playoff run, I would call Pete Deboer a pure genuis, on the other hand….

"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"

The Royal Half - "Today, Ilya Kovalchuk had 3 goals while yesterday Dustin Penner ate 3 pancakes. Well played, Dean Lombardi."

by Elektrostal_Kid on Feb 17, 2012 5:52 AM EST up reply actions  

I was thinking about doing a post on what Parise is worth by comparison to some of the big names around the league but given that it doesn’t look like he’s going to be signed until after the season is over, it could probably wait until the offseason.

by dr(d)evil on Feb 16, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, a better 4th line.

Zharkov, Zalewski, Janssen, Sestito, Boulton, Mills & Josefson have played a combined 146 games have tallied a whopping 0 goals.

Throw in Tedenby and Carter who have 3 goals in 85 games and you can see we have a offensive dead spot at the back of roster.

Poni and Bernier are helps. Even Veilleux or Palmieri shold provide a little boost, one would hope.

But we can’t continue to get zero.

by Bobby V on Feb 16, 2012 6:52 PM EST up reply actions  

If baffling to see there’s a lot of skill there and no points. Boulton and Janssen are not skill players so I’ll put then aside for this; I’m referring to the others.

I wanna see:

Ponikarovsky-Bernier-Clarkson
and
Sykora-Josefson-Palmieri tomorrow.

Something like that. It’s a demotion for Sykora but it’ll make a more balanced line there. I don’t value the Janssen/Boulton contributions much, though I do think they’ve freed Clarkson to play rather than fight. Not sure what happens if they get the healthy scratch.

by Alan Wright on Feb 17, 2012 12:00 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Isn’t that a demotion for Clarkson too? He’s been on the 2nd line with Sykora and Elias. And who is on the 2nd line in this scenario? Elias, Zuburus, and ??? Maybe I’m just missing something.

But like I said before, PDB loves his enforcers, so there’s no way he’ll play that 4th line anyway.

by otamamij on Feb 17, 2012 10:55 AM EST up reply actions  

I think Clarkson has fluctuated between 2nd (with Elias-Zubrus) and 3rd lines this year. He practiced with Elias-Zubrus the other day.

Under that scenario, yes, that leaves a gap on the second line. My mistake. If you’re right about the enforcer on the 4th line, I’d have to change it to:

Parise-Henrique-Kovy.
Clarkson-Elias-Zubrus.
Poni-Bernier-Palmieri
Sykora-Josefson-Boulton??

Hmm.I don’t know. I’m not so happy with that either.

by Alan Wright on Feb 17, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Still don’t think you’d get a whole lot of offense out of that last line. Sykora without Elias could be a problem. Zajac coming back would let you move some guys around, but any 4th line with Boulton will be weak offensively.

Not sure I like that third line either. Two rookies, including Palmieri, who has struggled this year. I prefer the lines PDB is rolling with now.

I’m a little worried with JJ getting stuck on these weak 4th lines. At the beginning of the year, he was supposed to be the star rookie, and now he’s like the forgotten man barely seeing the ice. I know he’s just getting back from an injury and there’s not a lot of room for him in the top 9, but I worry this is going to hurt his development.

by otamamij on Feb 17, 2012 1:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Also, you’re right about Clarkson, but I was referring to where he’s been playing lately, which is on the 2nd line. I think Zubrus may have been bumped up to the 2nd line because Sykora was sitting out the other day.

by otamamij on Feb 17, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ve heard it and said it before too: Sykora without Elias is a problem. But, I’m not sure I care much anymore. Sometime in November/ December I lost interest in the Sykora-Elias combo.

Palmieri has definitely struggled, but I think of my suggestions as a “trial run” for the next few games to see if he’s got anything going.

Well, damn good observation about JJ. I put him on the weak 4th because that’s where PDB puts him and where most people put him. But how long can he stay there before he suffers from it? I don’t know.

by Alan Wright on Feb 17, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions  

If Petr Sykora is the litmus test by which this team will ultimately be judged and ultimately sink or swim, we’re doomed. He’s a secondary player at this point in his career, and he’s been very “feast or famine” this season — a hot November, a hot streak the last two weeks of December (rougly), and long stretches where he hasn’t made an impact on the scoresheet. I’m not worried about Petr Sykora, his role, or how happy he is…. then again, I’ve been against Sykora all along and that has to be factored into my point of view.

We’ve seen how Patrik Elias raises the play of everyone around him on the ice, no matter who his linemates have been over the years. Think about how Brian Rolston was a serviceable player last season on Elias’ right wing (and how miserable he looked toiling on the third and fourth lines under The Coach Who Shall Not Be Named).

As for Josefson, I think he’s a victim of the numbers game right now. He was the second-line center during preseason and the early going and skated with Ilya Kovalchuk on his left wing before getting hurt. Since then, we’ve seen the emergence of Adam Henrique and the addition of Alexei Ponikarovsky in addition to Dainius Zubrus shifting from wing to center. There simply isn’t another spot to play him at the moment, at least not without mixing up several lines.

I’d like to see Josefson get better linemates and more opportunities, but I don’t know that it can happen the way things are now. Given how PDB trusts him to take a semi-regular shift on the PK, I don’t know that he’s liable to be a healthy scratch or outrighted to Albany soon, either. As with Alan above me, I’m concerned this will hurt him, and it’s among the reasons I despise playing rookies with that sort of potential for limited minutes at the NHL level as opposed to gonzo minutes in all situations in the AHL.

by acasser on Feb 17, 2012 5:46 PM EST up reply actions  

While Kovalchuk is definitely having an excellent season, he’s still -1 at 5 on 5 (empty net situations excluded). He has to be better to be a bargain.

Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines

by Triumph44 on Feb 16, 2012 5:28 PM EST up reply actions  

are you talking about +/- ? He still can improve but I think the real reason why Kovy is comfortable in the Devils uniform is that he adapted his game to a defensive mindset as much as Deboer adapted the team to his game… In short he’s still floating at times but his teammates are well aware of that because it’s on purpose… Sometimes it works sometimes not. High risks/High rewards philosophy.

"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"

The Royal Half - "Today, Ilya Kovalchuk had 3 goals while yesterday Dustin Penner ate 3 pancakes. Well played, Dean Lombardi."

by Elektrostal_Kid on Feb 17, 2012 5:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Kovy's Value

Should shootout success be included in any discussion of Kovy’s value? NJ has played in the most shootouts of any team (along with Van) and Kovy leads the league in shootout goals and is scoring 80% of the time (which is better than Malkin and any other player with 5 shootout goals or more). Overall he is 8 for 10.

Zach, on the other hand, is scoring on half of his shootout attempts (6 for 12) which is one of the lowest success rates for a player in the top 30 of shootout goals scored.

I’m also tempted to look up the two games where Kovy did not participate in the shootout.

by NJHockey8 on Feb 16, 2012 6:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Your Trivia Source!

Kovalchuk was hurt in the third period of the November 3rd game at Philadelphia. The Devils won that game in a shoot-out, with Parise (1st shooter) and Elias (3rd) scoring and Petr Sykora getting stopped by Sergei Bobrovsky.

Kovalchuk was still hurt when the Devils rallied to take Washington to a shootout on November 3rd in DC. Parise (1st shooter) and David Clarkson (4th) scored in the skills competition, with Adam Henrique (2nd) and Elias failing.

by acasser on Feb 16, 2012 6:25 PM EST up reply actions  

6 for 12 is still really good.

8 for 10 is amazing though. and yes, that should be included in his value. i have to imagine that it’s worth almost 2 points in the standings.

Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines

by Triumph44 on Feb 16, 2012 8:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Actually 6 points, since 6 were of the game deciding variety.

Go Devils
Go Jets

by FrankG929 on Feb 16, 2012 11:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow, filter that by Devils and everybody except Sykora’s 0/1 is either just below or above the league average (33.8%); Henrique being just below at 33.3%

Go Devils
Go Jets

by FrankG929 on Feb 16, 2012 11:11 PM EST up reply actions  

that’s not how i calculated that.

Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines

by Triumph44 on Feb 16, 2012 11:48 PM EST up reply actions  

This is tough

Looking at just the forwards, on paper, I think the Devils have borderline enough depth. I would rate their top 12 as (no particular order):
Parise, Zajac, Kovy, Elias, Zubrus, Poni, Clarkson, Sykora, Henrique, Josefson, Bernier, Carter (Maybe Tedenby)

That group looks pretty solid except when you consider a couple of things: Zajac is not healthy and may not be back to 100% this year, Josefson missed significant time, Sykora has slowed down a bit. Borderline forward depth is acceptable, but not without a very good defense and/or goaltending and that doesn’t really scream deep playoff run.

"I never knew how someone dying could say he was the luckiest man in the world. But now I understand." -Mickey Mantle's farewell address

by LaserVortex888 on Feb 16, 2012 2:00 PM EST reply actions  

Excellent article. It’s nice to see this all on paper.

by SatanicStickholders on Feb 16, 2012 2:07 PM EST reply actions  

You printed it out and read it? lol

by Matt Evans SNC on Feb 16, 2012 3:18 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I think the only thing missing is some offense from the D, I mean offense from the fourth line would have been good too, but that has literally not happened at all.

And Kovalchuk speeds away, great moves, busting through, DID YOU SEE THAT?

by KovyisLove on Feb 16, 2012 3:36 PM EST reply actions  

With 11 points this year, he’s not exactly an offensive powerhouse

by otamamij on Feb 16, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Different style of skaters

One reason that Kovy can log so many minutes is that he is a very fluid skater. He does less cutting back and forth, less digging in the corners, which is Parise’s style of skating. I would think that all of the direction changes that Parise does takes more energy.

by DevilsDDS on Feb 16, 2012 4:32 PM EST reply actions  

I think this article has sugarcoated things a bit…It’s not just 10-pt scorers that the Devils are deficient in compared to those championship teams, it’s also 20-pt scorers. And for all we know the winning teams may have had a slew of 40-pt scorers where the Devils have 20 or 30-pt guys instead.

The fact that some of these teams had 19 skaters with 10 or more points is telling. First of all, there are only 18 players that take the ice in a game, so if they had 19 they must have had at least one player (probably more) who notched 10 pts in a season despite not playing the whole season. Second, it means the defensemen were strongly involved in the offense. Third, even extremely offensively challenged players were reaching the 10-pt mark because the team scored so many goals that they were able to collect a few cheap assists on the backs of their teammates.

by dr(d)evil on Feb 16, 2012 4:59 PM EST reply actions  

Really because I like to look at things a bit positively and currently Clarkson, Zubrus and Sykora projecting at having at least 40pt seasons. Will they? I would stand to reckon at least two of them will.

by Zelepukin on Feb 16, 2012 10:02 PM EST up reply actions  

This is a very cool comparison. Have never looked at it this way. Hopefully the depth can come through this year.

Joshd12
Brock University
BA. Sports Management, 2014
BA. Recreation and Leisure Studies

by joshd12 on Feb 16, 2012 6:14 PM EST reply actions  

Kovalchuk vs Parise

First of all, have you ever seen Kovalchuk “fatigued”? Because i’m not sure i have. The guy is an absolute stallion. Beyond that, Parise is far more reliant on the physical game and takes a lot of hits. Kovalchuk very rarely engages in that much contact just because of his pure size and speed, along with his playing style(although he has been really finding the board game since a few months back).

Point being, I’m not even remotely worried about Kovalchuk or Parise being “fatigued” in the playoffs.These guys are the studs and the leaders on this Devils’ team along with Patty. I think they will all be extremely happy to get back in the playoffs where that belong.

by CMelsDevils on Feb 16, 2012 10:48 PM EST reply actions  

If we could pass the 1st round, it would be a winning season personally.

"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"

The Royal Half - "Today, Ilya Kovalchuk had 3 goals while yesterday Dustin Penner ate 3 pancakes. Well played, Dean Lombardi."

by Elektrostal_Kid on Feb 17, 2012 5:45 AM EST reply actions  

Can one of you smarter hockey people compare the Devils this year to the Flyers from 2 years ago that went to the Cup?

I think that’s the scenario we should be looking at. I realize they had a couple of great blue liners in Prongs and Kimmo but otherwise how do they compare to this Devils team?

by J-Nasty on Feb 17, 2012 7:48 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

Playoff Team?

There are some serious problems here that have not been addressed. A fourth line that can actually give some offensive production. That would not include Jansen and Bolton. Afourth line that can actually play some defense and skate.

A defense that doesn’t have as many holes as swiss cheese. A plan to stop being forechecked to death for long periods in our defensive zone. A hot goalie who will make the big saves regularly. The potential is there but don’t count on it. Stop turning the puck over at our blue line with cross ice passes. (Kovalchuk) Movement in the offensive zone would be welcomed instead of standing on the perimiter like statues. Again, the potential is ther but they have to get on the same page. Lines:

Parise-Henrique-Kovalchuk
Sykora-Zajac-Elias (Sykora needs Elias to be effective)
Poinkarovsky-Zubrus-Clarkson (Great Forechecking Line)
Zharkov- Josefson-Bernier (Better than what we’ve seen so far)

Defense

Volchenkov-Salvador
Tallinder-Larsson
Green-Fayne

Denterre

by denterre on Feb 17, 2012 8:03 AM EST reply actions  

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