FanPost

Playoff Points Threshold Prediction 2014 Final Update



The comments were closed on my last post so I am going to update here. With 92% of the seasons games played I will make this my last prediction, because from here on out you won't need stats to see it. I predicted 91 points, which as of tonight's shoot out out loss is unattainable. But the good news was Columbus also lost, even though they picked up a point. But the equation has also been dropping slowly over the last week, down to 90.9 points as of right now. The new unbalanced conferences could have skewed my prediction (I guess I will find out soon), or the reason I made this equation is not coming into play. The easy way to predict how many points would be needed is to look at the current pace (Columbus in 8th with 90.7 points over Toronto and Washington at 87 and NJ at 86). But It seems that the team that makes it in always elevates their game to get in and beats their season points percentage in the month of April. That would mean the actually threshold to make the playoffs is higher than the current pace, thus my prediction equation's 90.9. For most of the season the equation was a few points higher than the current pace, until now. Maybe the 8th place team wound be clutch and just stumble in if it is Columbus. Unlike Detroit who is playing clutch to get in (Thanks to my fellow Black Bear Gustav Nyquist, I'm calling him a superstar in the making). In all of this too the less accurate equation says 88 points, so we will see. I am at the disadvantage of using 2005-13 data when we now have unbalanced conferences. Next year it will be better.

So My prediction could have been wrong and 90 points will make it, so I won't give up until we lose another point. But I really won't give up until it is official, I'm sure just like you.

All FanPosts and FanShots are the respective work of the author and not representative of the writers or other users of In Lou We Trust.

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