FanPost

Changing the NHL Draft Lottery

It's late July and aside from a few arbitration cases hockey news has slowed to a crawl. A topic I would like to look into is the NHL draft lottery, some of the proposed changes and what solution I would have.

Here is a quick review of the current odds for the draft.

Team

Odds

Percent Change

1

25

2

18.8

-24.8

3

14.2

-24.5

4

10.7

-24.6

5

8.1

-24.3

6

6.2

-23.5

7

4.7

-24.2

8

3.6

-23.4

9

2.7

-25.0

10

2.1

-22.2

11

1.5

-28.6

12

1.1

-26.7

13

0.8

-27.3

14

0.5

-37.5

I have included the percent change in the table above to address one of the reported goals of changing the current system which is to "smooth out" or "compress" the percentages. Overall from one pick to the next there is about a 24% percent change in the odds. Another possibility is that not just the first overall pick being in the lottery, but the top three or five. I would rather not see five, but I won't go into that here.

One of the ways the League might go about changing the odds is to drop the odds of first overall from 25% to 20%. Using some math and excel, this is how something like that might look.

Team

Odds

Percent Change

1

20.0

2

16.2

-18.9

3

13.1

-18.9

4

10.7

-18.9

5

8.6

-18.9

6

7.0

-18.9

7

5.7

-18.9

8

4.6

-18.9

9

3.7

-18.9

10

3.0

-18.9

11

2.4

-18.9

12

2.0

-18.9

13

1.6

-18.9

14

1.4

-13.0

Note: The reason for the 14th team having such a difference in percent change is that the odds work out to be 1.3, but then the total odds don't work out to be 100, so I just bumped them up a little.

So the percent change between teams is decreased to about 18.9% instead of about 24%. Lets put the two side by side.

Current

My Proposal

Percent Change

1

25

20.0

-20

2

18.8

16.2

-14

3

14.2

13.1

-8

4

10.7

10.7

0

5

8.1

8.6

6

6

6.2

7.0

13

7

4.7

5.7

21

8

3.6

4.6

28

9

2.7

3.7

37

10

2.1

3.0

43

11

1.5

2.4

60

12

1.1

2.0

82

13

0.8

1.6

100

14

0.5

1.4

180

So the top three teams see their odds decreased while teams 5-14 see their odds increase. Not big changes between the two, but are we really looking to reinvent the wheel here? It might not seem like much, but consider that currently the top three teams currently have a combined 58% chance to get the first overall pick. Under these numbers it would drop to 49.3%. I would say that those odds are slightly easier to follow than what is being thrown around.

In that Friedman article he brings up the idea of a "rolling" year period for the odds. Again, following all of that it seems to get rather messy so rather than using that idea for the odds it might be interesting to use for the placement of teams.

In an effort to discourage tanking or outlier years how about using a three-year rolling period based on where the team finished in the standings weighted for the most recent years. A team would have to be bad for several years to get the benefit of a high draft pick. Not just have a bad year, sell everything off and get the second overall pick (looking at you 2007 Flyers).

Some might point out that the goal is to discourage being consistently bad. Under what I outline below a team would have to be consistently bad to get the benefit of a high draft pick and ask the fans of Edmonton or fans of Florida how much they enjoy that. This method would also discourage a single year tank because other years are factored in.

This is how it could work for the most recent seasons. Take your place in the standings and multiply by 5, the year before multiply by 3, the year before multiply by 1 and then add them together. This is how it would have looked like for the 2012 Draft. For the sake of space I will only include the top 20 teams. The lottery system is only for non-playoff teams anyways.

Actual

Proposed

2011-2012

2010-2011

2009-2010

Total

1

1

EDM

29

30

30

265

Won Lottery Over CLB

2

2

CLB

30

24

27

249

4

3

NYI

27

27

26

242

5

4

TOR

26

22

29

225

9

5

WIN

22

25

23

208

7

6

MIN

24

21

22

205

3

7

MON

28

14

19

201

11

8

COL

20

29

12

199

8

9

CAR

23

19

24

196

10

FL

14

28

28

182

11

OTT

16

26

13

171

6

12

ANA

25

9

17

169

13

13

DAL

18

16

20

158

10

14

TB

21

8

25

154

14

15

CAL

17

17

16

152

12

16

BUF

19

15

11

151

17

NJD

9

23

6

120

18

LA

13

12

9

110

19

PHX

11

11

4

92

20

CHI

10

13

3

92

One of the issues is that team like FL and OTT that made the playoffs are in the lottery. That is easily solved though by kicking them out and replacing them with CAL and BUF. So the order would be 9-CAR, 10-ANA, 11-DAL, 12-TB, 13-CAL, 14-BUF.

The goal would be to take a team like ANA that is usually good and not reward them with the 6th overall pick. Same with MTL, instead of 3rd overall they drop to 7th. It also helps those who need it. Winnipeg for example is usually bad, therefore giving them 5th overall instead of 9th would in theory help them more.

Here is the 2013 Draft.

Actual

Proposed

2012-2013

2011-2012

2010-2011

Total

7

1

EDM

24

29

30

237

1

2

COL

29

20

29

234

Won Lottery Over FL

2

3

FL

30

14

28

220

5

4

CAR

26

23

19

218

3

5

TB

28

21

8

211

14

6

CLB

17

30

24

199

6

7

CAL

25

17

17

193

8

NYI

16

27

27

188

8

9

BUF

23

19

15

187

13

10

WIN

18

22

25

181

10

11

DAL

21

18

16

175

12

MIN

15

24

21

168

9

13

NJD

22

9

23

160

4

14

NAS

27

5

10

160

15

TOR

9

26

22

145

16

OTT

14

16

26

144

12

17

PHX

19

11

11

139

11

18

PHI

20

6

3

121

19

MON

4

28

14

118

20

ANA

3

25

9

99

Again, bump out NYI and MIN and reorder with PHX and then PHI. It would have given EDM another chance at a first overall pick, but remember we are decreasing the first overall pick odds also. CLB gets a big bump and maybe that helps them speed up their development. Nashville takes a big hit, but that would be an example of how a team that is normally decent doesn't get the benefit of a high draft pick for one bad year. Thus, discouraging a single year tank.

Finally, the 2014 Draft.

Actual

Proposed

2013-2014

2012-2013

2011-2012

Total

1

1

FL

29

30

14

249

Won Lottery Over BUF

3

2

EDM

28

24

29

241

2

3

BUF

30

23

19

238

4

4

CAL

27

25

17

227

7

5

CAR

24

26

23

221

5

6

NYI

26

16

27

205

9

7

WIN

22

18

22

186

11

8

NAS

19

27

5

181

*

9

NJD

20

22

9

175

8

10

TOR

23

9

26

168

10

11

OTT

21

14

16

163

12

DAL

16

21

18

161

12

13

PHX

18

19

11

158

14

CLB

14

17

30

151

6

15

VAN

25

8

1

150

16

TB

8

28

21

145

17

PHI

13

20

6

131

13

18

WAS

17

10

15

130

19

MIN

11

15

24

124

20

COL

3

29

20

122

Again, swap out playoff vs. non-playoffs. Overall not huge changes, but it gives a little bump to those who need it like CAR, WIN and NAS instead of teams that made poor choices last year like VAN.

I don't really expect any of this to actually happen, but when I read articles about a lottery draft playoff, I feel like this is more realistic.

What do you think? How do you think the Draft lottery system should be changed? Should it be changed in the first place?

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