Why Ask The Question?
Over the past year, I have seen many people discussing this issue; is Zajac a first-line center? In recent threads, this discussion has reignited with no clear answer in sight. I wanted to attempt to quantify and analyze the quality of some of the center-men in the NHL, and from that, try to determine whether Zajac is a first-line center.
Definition of Terms
For this study, it is very important to start with an explicit statement of what classifies a first-line center. My definition is as follows.
First Line Center: A center in the NHL who is among the top 30 centers in overall performance.
By definition, because there are 30 teams in the NHL, there must be 30 first-line centers. Though some may disagree with this, this is the basis for my study, and any argument based on other criteria is not applicable here (This is in reference to those who try to quantity first-line centers in a one dimensional way like an arbitrary minimum total points achieved in a season). I based my study off of the 2013-2014 season, so keep this in mind when applying it to a player's career.
Choosing how to measure overall performance is where people will disagree. I show my process below evaluating the following criteria:
-QoC TOI% (quality of competition based on percentage of TOI played)
-G/GP (goals per game played)
-A/GP (assists per game played)
-FO% (face-off percentage)
-QoT TOI% (quality of teammates based on percentage of TOI played)
-CF% (Corsi-For percentage)
-ZS% (zone start percentage)
-TOI/G (time on ice per game)
-SP/G (setup passes per game)
-GF% Rel (goals for percentage relative to teammates)
-SV% Rel (save percentage relative to teammates)
-PK TOI/60 (penalty kill TOI per 60 minutes played)
I chose the top few centers from each team, a total of 87, to conduct my analysis. For ranking the importance of each of the aforementioned criteria, I weighted them to ratios to which I find accurate. I also conducted the study with a heavier emphasis on scoring. My data, which is very large, for this is below. Reading it all is not necessary, but it is there if desired.
Player | Pos. | Team(s) | QoC TOI% | G/GP | A/GP | FO% | QoT TOI% | CF% | ZS% | TOI/G | SP/G | GF% Rel | SV % Rel | PK TOI/60 | AC Score | ACR | Scorer Score | Scorer R. | Ave. Score | Ave. R | ||
1 | Sidney Crosby | C | Penguins | 5 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 86 | 10 | 31 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 37 | 59 | 16.2 | 1 | 11.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
2 | Jonathan Toews | C | Blackhawks | 1 | 12 | 14 | 2 | 68 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 25 | 48 | 32 | 19.1 | 2 | 15.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 2 | |
3 | Evgeni Malkin | C | Penguins | 39 | 11 | 2 | 35 | 64 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 85 | 20 | 4 | 13.3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
4 | Anze Kopitar | C | Kings | 11 | 15 | 18 | 23 | 70 | 8 | 47 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 26 | 18 | 19.4 | 3 | 17.6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | |
5 | John Tavares | C | Islanders | 7 | 4 | 6 | 56 | 85 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 63 | 72 | 22.8 | 5 | 16.8 | 4 | 4.5 | 5 | |
6 | Claude Giroux | C | Flyers | 22 | 17 | 7 | 24 | 81 | 14 | 34 | 10 | 27 | 10 | 18 | 50 | 23 | 6 | 18.8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | |
7 | Pavel Datsyuk | C | Red Wings | 9 | 8 | 29 | 17 | 83 | 9 | 29 | 14 | 48 | 12 | 7 | 54 | 24.6 | 7 | 21.6 | 9 | 8 | 7 | |
8 | Tyler Seguin | C | Stars | 10 | 2 | 11 | 72 | 66 | 11 | 8 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 70 | 75 | 25.1 | 9 | 18.9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | |
9 | Ryan Getzlaf | C | Ducks | 4 | 6 | 5 | 53 | 65 | 44 | 68 | 3 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 16 | 25.8 | 10 | 21.1 | 8 | 9 | 9 | |
10 | Joe Thornton | C | Sharks | 14 | 79 | 3 | 3 | 44 | 1 | 48 | 31 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 64 | 25 | 8 | 22.6 | 11 | 9.5 | 10 | |
11 | Eric Staal | C | Hurricanes | 25 | 35 | 17 | 16 | 77 | 23 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 47 | 5 | 51 | 27.6 | 13 | 22.2 | 10 | 11.5 | 11 | |
12 | Mikko Koivu | C | Wild | 16 | 69 | 9 | 8 | 72 | 18 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 43 | 8 | 37 | 26.4 | 11 | 24.1 | 13 | 12 | 12 | |
13 | Henrik Sedin | C | Canucks | 13 | 72 | 13 | 27 | 78 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 52 | 48 | 26.6 | 12 | 25.7 | 15 | 13.5 | 13 | |
14 | Matt Duchene | C | Avalanche | 12 | 20 | 8 | 42 | 63 | 38 | 36 | 40 | 12 | 20 | 36 | 68 | 31.3 | 15 | 24 | 12 | 13.5 | 14 | |
15 | Logan Couture | C | Sharks | 8 | 14 | 22 | 28 | 31 | 17 | 44 | 30 | 39 | 24 | 51 | 38 | 29.8 | 14 | 25.5 | 14 | 14 | 15 | |
16 | Steven Stamkos | C | Lightning | 37 | 1 | 31 | 46 | 79 | 19 | 24 | 15 | 30 | 5 | 57 | 57 | 31.4 | 16 | 26.2 | 17 | 16.5 | 16 | |
17 | Paul Stastny | C | Avalanche | 17 | 16 | 20 | 9 | 60 | 55 | 51 | 41 | 13 | 33 | 32 | 56 | 34.2 | 18 | 26.1 | 16 | 17 | 17 | |
18 | Nicklas Backstrom | C | Capitals | 26 | 51 | 4 | 39 | 59 | 36 | 26 | 20 | 42 | 28 | 11 | 47 | 34 | 17 | 30 | 19 | 18 | 18 | |
19 | Jason Spezza | C | Stars | 50 | 25 | 12 | 12 | 46 | 31 | 41 | 45 | 14 | 60 | 1 | 52 | 36.5 | 22 | 27.4 | 18 | 20 | 19 | |
20 | Patrice Bergeron | C | Bruins | 27 | 9 | 34 | 1 | 28 | 16 | 78 | 49 | 58 | 46 | 21 | 19 | 36.3 | 21 | 31.2 | 20 | 20.5 | 20 | |
21 | David Backes | C | Blues | 3 | 13 | 32 | 37 | 62 | 28 | 72 | 23 | 52 | 50 | 20 | 22 | 35.7 | 20 | 31.9 | 21 | 20.5 | 21 | |
22 | Bryan Little | C | Jets | 6 | 33 | 19 | 75 | 58 | 45 | 60 | 17 | 17 | 42 | 47 | 5 | 35.3 | 19 | 32.7 | 23 | 21 | 22 | |
23 | Tyler Bozak | C | Maple Leafs | 2 | 18 | 15 | 62 | 87 | 76 | 79 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 40 | 42 | 37.5 | 24 | 32.2 | 22 | 23 | 23 | |
24 | Jeff Carter | C | Kings | 29 | 10 | 54 | 18 | 36 | 15 | 22 | 29 | 51 | 38 | 45 | 34 | 36.6 | 23 | 32.7 | 24 | 23.5 | 24 | |
25 | David Krejci | C | Bruins | 23 | 44 | 10 | 41 | 76 | 30 | 39 | 26 | 40 | 9 | 86 | 55 | 37.8 | 25 | 32.9 | 25 | 25 | 25 | |
26 | Frans Nielsen | C | Islanders | 40 | 24 | 33 | 58 | 9 | 42 | 53 | 44 | 20 | 54 | 4 | 9 | 39 | 26 | 34.6 | 28 | 27 | 26 | |
27 | Brad Richards | C | Blackhawks | 45 | 46 | 40 | 50 | 53 | 6 | 3 | 36 | 21 | 30 | 28 | 79 | 39 | 27 | 34.1 | 27 | 27 | 27 | |
28 | Valtteri Filppula | C | Lightning | 48 | 19 | 30 | 34 | 73 | 37 | 43 | 18 | 31 | 27 | 55 | 44 | 39 | 28 | 32.9 | 26 | 27 | 28 | |
29 | Travis Zajac | C | Devils | 20 | 48 | 41 | 11 | 74 | 34 | 59 | 12 | 63 | 52 | 13 | 20 | 40.6 | 29 | 38.7 | 32 | 30.5 | 29 | |
30 | Mike Cammalleri | C | Flames | 31 | 5 | 58 | 82 | 82 | 29 | 46 | 19 | 29 | 51 | 9 | 63 | 43.2 | 31 | 37.6 | 30 | 30.5 | 30 | |
31 | Martin Hanzal | C | Coyotes | 30 | 49 | 42 | 10 | 48 | 43 | 33 | 37 | 24 | 55 | 46 | 41 | 43.3 | 32 | 37.7 | 31 | 31.5 | 31 | |
32 | Ryan Johansen | C | Blue Jackets | 35 | 7 | 44 | 20 | 45 | 40 | 65 | 50 | 50 | 32 | 49 | 53 | 44 | 35 | 36.6 | 29 | 32 | 32 | |
33 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | C | Oilers | 19 | 43 | 24 | 84 | 84 | 71 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 21 | 54 | 39 | 43 | 30 | 39.6 | 34 | 32 | 33 | |
34 | Kyle Turris | C | Senators | 42 | 22 | 36 | 43 | 50 | 50 | 61 | 35 | 44 | 13 | 87 | 23 | 43.8 | 34 | 39.2 | 33 | 33.5 | 34 | |
35 | Derek Stepan | C | Rangers | 24 | 56 | 21 | 80 | 34 | 27 | 49 | 46 | 25 | 23 | 83 | 43 | 43.4 | 33 | 39.7 | 35 | 34 | 35 | |
36 | David Legwand | C | Senators | 32 | 70 | 27 | 36 | 32 | 32 | 35 | 60 | 38 | 26 | 33 | 73 | 45.1 | 37 | 40 | 36 | 36.5 | 36 | |
37 | Ryan Kesler | C | Canucks | 18 | 21 | 76 | 19 | 80 | 35 | 58 | 2 | 74 | 68 | 6 | 10 | 44.3 | 36 | 43.1 | 40 | 38 | 37 | |
38 | Brandon Dubinsky | C | Blue Jackets | 53 | 58 | 26 | 31 | 33 | 54 | 69 | 34 | 33 | 65 | 19 | 12 | 47.4 | 39 | 42.4 | 38 | 38.5 | 38 | |
39 | David Desharnais | C | Canadiens | 64 | 64 | 25 | 51 | 51 | 33 | 16 | 56 | 26 | 14 | 61 | 76 | 47.6 | 40 | 41.2 | 37 | 38.5 | 39 | |
40 | Marcus Johansson | C | Capitals | 33 | 85 | 28 | 77 | 38 | 39 | 25 | 51 | 16 | 36 | 22 | 65 | 46.8 | 38 | 43.1 | 41 | 39.5 | 40 | |
41 | Mike Fisher | C | Predators | 15 | 34 | 37 | 29 | 61 | 70 | 71 | 22 | 64 | 48 | 43 | 33 | 47.8 | 41 | 42.6 | 39 | 40 | 41 | |
42 | Riley Sheahan | C | Red Wings | 83 | 61 | 50 | 47 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 82 | 19 | 7 | 64 | 87 | 49.4 | 45 | 43.3 | 42 | 43.5 | 42 | |
43 | Mike Ribeiro | C | Coyotes | 72 | 65 | 38 | 74 | 42 | 13 | 1 | 48 | 32 | 31 | 41 | 70 | 49.1 | 43 | 44.3 | 44 | 43.5 | 43 | |
44 | Jordan Staal | C | Hurricanes | 41 | 66 | 61 | 7 | 55 | 41 | 56 | 28 | 15 | 69 | 56 | 25 | 49 | 42 | 45.1 | 47 | 44.5 | 44 | |
45 | Mike Richards | C | Kings | 59 | 81 | 46 | 15 | 11 | 22 | 32 | 59 | 22 | 76 | 17 | 29 | 49.2 | 44 | 44.9 | 46 | 45 | 45 | |
46 | Mikhail Grabovski | C | Islanders | 65 | 53 | 43 | 13 | 40 | 46 | 38 | 74 | 28 | 15 | 69 | 86 | 51.9 | 47 | 43.3 | 43 | 45 | 46 | |
47 | Nathan MacKinnon | C | Avalanche | 61 | 28 | 23 | 67 | 54 | 62 | 30 | 53 | 61 | 8 | 80 | 74 | 53.3 | 48 | 44.5 | 45 | 46.5 | 47 | |
48 | Antoine Vermette | C | Coyotes | 21 | 26 | 70 | 4 | 39 | 75 | 74 | 25 | 71 | 53 | 59 | 6 | 51.2 | 46 | 47.7 | 49 | 47.5 | 48 | |
49 | Mikael Granlund | C | Wild | 58 | 80 | 16 | 22 | 37 | 60 | 37 | 55 | 56 | 44 | 39 | 60 | 54.3 | 50 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 49 | |
50 | Aleksander Barkov | C | Panthers | 49 | 76 | 62 | 60 | 35 | 26 | 21 | 57 | 35 | 18 | 73 | 78 | 53.9 | 49 | 50.4 | 52 | 50.5 | 50 | |
51 | Derick Brassard | C | Rangers | 73 | 55 | 52 | 59 | 17 | 12 | 13 | 72 | 57 | 35 | 27 | 80 | 54.4 | 51 | 48.4 | 51 | 51 | 51 | |
52 | Mathieu Perreault | C | Ducks | 87 | 40 | 49 | 25 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 84 | 55 | 34 | 79 | 82 | 57.5 | 53 | 47.9 | 50 | 51.5 | 52 | |
53 | Tyler Ennis | C | Sabres | 47 | 38 | 65 | 86 | 71 | 63 | 23 | 32 | 65 | 6 | 35 | 81 | 54.6 | 52 | 50.5 | 53 | 52.5 | 53 | |
54 | Mika Zibanejad | C | Senators | 75 | 50 | 72 | 40 | 6 | 24 | 15 | 83 | 36 | 59 | 31 | 69 | 58 | 56 | 50.7 | 54 | 55 | 54 | |
55 | Andrew Shaw | C | Blackhawks | 85 | 42 | 74 | 57 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 75 | 84 | 29 | 34 | 66 | 57.6 | 54 | 53.2 | 58 | 56 | 55 | |
56 | Tyler Johnson | C | Lightning | 52 | 27 | 55 | 65 | 41 | 66 | 63 | 33 | 73 | 40 | 85 | 14 | 57.8 | 55 | 53.1 | 57 | 56 | 56 | |
57 | Matt Stajan | C | Flames | 43 | 52 | 59 | 69 | 69 | 84 | 86 | 43 | 8 | 80 | 16 | 17 | 58 | 57 | 52.3 | 56 | 56.5 | 57 | |
58 | Nazem Kadri | C | Maple Leafs | 70 | 39 | 39 | 83 | 52 | 68 | 40 | 52 | 37 | 39 | 74 | 77 | 61 | 61 | 51.3 | 55 | 58 | 58 | |
59 | Nick Bjugstad | C | Panthers | 46 | 57 | 63 | 61 | 30 | 48 | 28 | 65 | 54 | 62 | 24 | 61 | 59.5 | 58 | 53.6 | 60 | 59 | 59 | |
60 | Sam Gagner | C | Oilers | 56 | 77 | 35 | 73 | 67 | 67 | 20 | 42 | 53 | 66 | 3 | 62 | 59.7 | 59 | 53.4 | 59 | 59 | 60 | |
61 | Nick Bonino | C | Ducks | 82 | 32 | 51 | 63 | 4 | 51 | 70 | 64 | 68 | 49 | 62 | 27 | 61.9 | 63 | 54.9 | 62 | 62.5 | 61 | |
62 | Rich Peverley | C | Stars | 55 | 83 | 48 | 5 | 8 | 64 | 52 | 78 | 41 | 71 | 67 | 46 | 62.8 | 64 | 54.9 | 63 | 63.5 | 62 | |
63 | Mikael Backlund | C | Flames | 34 | 45 | 67 | 78 | 43 | 59 | 67 | 39 | 81 | 41 | 68 | 21 | 60.1 | 60 | 57.8 | 67 | 63.5 | 63 | |
64 | Derek Roy | C | Blues | 86 | 82 | 47 | 32 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 85 | 60 | 45 | 82 | 71 | 62.8 | 65 | 55.5 | 64 | 64.5 | 64 | |
65 | Tomas Plekanec | C | Canadiens | 28 | 41 | 66 | 70 | 57 | 81 | 85 | 21 | 66 | 61 | 84 | 2 | 61.3 | 62 | 58.1 | 68 | 65 | 65 | |
66 | Vincent Lecavalier | C | Flyers | 77 | 29 | 71 | 71 | 19 | 52 | 14 | 79 | 45 | 74 | 15 | 83 | 64.8 | 70 | 54.3 | 61 | 65.5 | 66 | |
67 | Mike Santorelli | C | Canucks | 60 | 62 | 45 | 49 | 75 | 73 | 80 | 38 | 49 | 57 | 78 | 28 | 62.9 | 67 | 56.6 | 66 | 66.5 | 67 | |
68 | Olli Jokinen | C | Jets | 67 | 54 | 60 | 76 | 49 | 57 | 62 | 58 | 18 | 67 | 60 | 58 | 63.8 | 69 | 55.7 | 65 | 67 | 68 | |
69 | Adam Henrique | C | Devils | 62 | 23 | 77 | 85 | 25 | 58 | 55 | 47 | 79 | 56 | 53 | 11 | 62.9 | 66 | 58.9 | 71 | 68.5 | 69 | |
70 | Andrew Cogliano | C | Ducks | 38 | 36 | 73 | 52 | 27 | 79 | 54 | 76 | 67 | 83 | 29 | 26 | 65.5 | 72 | 58.6 | 69 | 70.5 | 70 | |
71 | Sean Couturier | C | Flyers | 44 | 73 | 56 | 54 | 56 | 78 | 83 | 27 | 59 | 82 | 42 | 1 | 63.2 | 68 | 59.9 | 73 | 70.5 | 71 | |
72 | Mark Scheifele | C | Jets | 74 | 60 | 53 | 87 | 47 | 47 | 19 | 62 | 72 | 19 | 81 | 84 | 65.2 | 71 | 58.7 | 70 | 70.5 | 72 | |
73 | RJ Umberger | C | Blue Jackets | 51 | 47 | 80 | 33 | 21 | 72 | 45 | 67 | 70 | 58 | 66 | 45 | 66.1 | 74 | 59.7 | 72 | 73 | 73 | |
74 | Artem Anisimov | C | Blue Jackets | 71 | 37 | 81 | 45 | 12 | 65 | 75 | 61 | 80 | 79 | 10 | 8 | 65.9 | 73 | 60.9 | 74 | 73.5 | 74 | |
75 | Jarret Stoll | C | Kings | 81 | 86 | 75 | 6 | 14 | 56 | 77 | 71 | 47 | 72 | 58 | 15 | 67.3 | 75 | 62.6 | 76 | 75.5 | 75 | |
76 | Tommy Wingels | C | Sharks | 69 | 59 | 64 | 48 | 26 | 53 | 50 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 72 | 40 | 68.5 | 76 | 61.5 | 75 | 75.5 | 76 | |
77 | Nick Spaling | C | Predators | 66 | 67 | 69 | 21 | 20 | 83 | 64 | 69 | 62 | 64 | 71 | 35 | 69.7 | 78 | 62.6 | 77 | 77.5 | 77 | |
78 | Cody Eakin | C | Stars | 63 | 63 | 78 | 66 | 29 | 61 | 57 | 54 | 75 | 78 | 23 | 30 | 68.8 | 77 | 64.4 | 80 | 78.5 | 78 | |
79 | Saku Koivu | C | Ducks | 36 | 71 | 68 | 38 | 16 | 85 | 76 | 81 | 78 | 85 | 12 | 36 | 70.2 | 79 | 64 | 79 | 79 | 79 | |
80 | Sean Monahan | C | Flames | 79 | 31 | 84 | 79 | 24 | 69 | 17 | 70 | 77 | 63 | 44 | 67 | 72.1 | 82 | 63.5 | 78 | 80 | 80 | |
81 | Patrik Berglund | C | Blues | 68 | 68 | 79 | 44 | 22 | 49 | 42 | 66 | 86 | 73 | 75 | 31 | 71.7 | 80 | 66.7 | 82 | 81 | 81 | |
82 | Darren Helm | C | Red Wings | 78 | 30 | 82 | 55 | 13 | 74 | 66 | 80 | 83 | 75 | 50 | 13 | 72.5 | 83 | 65.4 | 81 | 82 | 82 | |
83 | Marcel Goc | C | Panthers, Penguins | 57 | 78 | 83 | 14 | 23 | 77 | 87 | 63 | 87 | 81 | 38 | 7 | 71.8 | 81 | 68.1 | 84 | 82.5 | 83 | |
84 | Daniel Winnik | C | Ducks | 54 | 87 | 57 | 68 | 18 | 86 | 84 | 77 | 46 | 84 | 76 | 3 | 73.2 | 84 | 67.8 | 83 | 83.5 | 84 | |
85 | Tom Pyatt | C | Lightning | 76 | 84 | 86 | 30 | 1 | 80 | 81 | 87 | 82 | 87 | 2 | 49 | 78.8 | 85 | 72 | 85 | 85 | 85 | |
86 | Brandon Sutter | C | Penguins | 80 | 74 | 85 | 64 | 10 | 87 | 82 | 73 | 76 | 86 | 65 | 4 | 80.9 | 86 | 75.6 | 86 | 86 | 86 | |
87 | Shawn Matthias | C | Panthers, Canucks | 84 | 75 | 87 | 81 | 2 | 82 | 73 | 86 | 85 | 77 | 77 | 24 | 85.1 | 87 | 79.1 | 87 | 87 | 87 |
I used different weighted averages in the two studies. More points were awarded to a category I deemed more important.
AC Score: 6-GF% Rel 5-QoC TOI%, A/GP, CF%, SP/G 4- G/GP, TOI/G 3-FO%, SV % Rel, PK TOI/60 2- ZS% 1-QoT TOI %
Scorer Score: 8-A/GP 7-G/GP 6-SP/G 4-QoC TOI%, FO%, CF%, GF% Rel 3-TOI/G 2.5-SV% Rel 2-ZS 1-QoT TOI% 0.5-PK TOI/60
These rankings were then averaged for an Average Score.
Findings
In the AC ranking, Zajac is ranked the 29th Best Center in the League. In the Scorer ranking, he is the 32nd Best Center in the League. If you average out the ranking system, he comes in at the 29th Best Center in the NHL. The full ranking is listed above, but I will list the top 30 centers, in order from 1 to 30, from my study.
Crosby, Toews, Malkin, Kopitar, Tavares, Giroux, Datsyuk, Seguin, Getzlaf, Thornton, E. Staal, Koivu, Sedin, Duchene, Couture, Stamkos, Stastny, Backstrom, Spezza, Bergeron, Backes, Little, Bozak, Carter, Krejci, Nielsen, Richards, Filppula, Zajac, Cammalleri.
Remember, this data is just for one season, but I think this is a pretty good list. The other Devil on this list, Adam Henrique, ended up being ranked 69th. Though some of these may surprise you, remember that there is a lot more to being a first line center than putting up points. Driving possession, killing penalties, playing big minutes, winning face-offs, playing the toughest competition, and zone-start percentage are all incredibly important criteria to consider when evaluating an NHL center-man.
From this study, I conclude that Zajac is a first-line center. He is, however, on the lower end of that spectrum. His ranking of 29 puts him just inside this elite group. I believe that this is a very accurate analysis (albeit of one season), and I am very interested to see what you all think. Though I know that this will not come anywhere close to solving this debate, I hope that this is a positive step in trying to logically analyze this consistent question on ILWT. As always, thank you so much for reading if you made it this far. I appreciate it greatly, and leave your comments below!