FanPost

Would it make sense for the Chicago Blackhawks to trade Marian Hossa?

Disclaimer: I am not arguing for or against the Devils taking on Hossa's contract, though I won't deny I think Chicago would make a good trade partner given the Hawks' need to dump salary this offseason and the Devils' need for scoring RWers of which Chicago has three of high quality (Kane, Hossa, Sharp). The point is more of a thought experiment regarding the repercussions of the cap recapture rule.

As we are all aware, having been saddled with a crippling $250K per year cap hit due to Ilya Kovalchuk's "retirement", the cap recapture penalty is a new rule instituted in the most recent CBA to punish teams that handed out super-long front-loaded contracts to their star players.

My understanding of the cap recapture penalty is as follows (I didn't read the CBA so please do correct me if I have misrepresented things):

1. A team is considered to have reaped a "cap benefit" if the cap hit in a given year is less than the salary paid to the player.

2. An opposite effect to the cap benefit occurs when the cap hit exceeds the salary paid that year.

3. If a player retires prior to the end of their contract (only applicable to "long term" deals), a team that reaped a cap benefit during the course of the contract is given a cap recapture penalty.

4. The amount of the penalty = (the amount of cap benefit reaped) divided by (the number of years left on the contract)

5. Even if a player is traded, any team that benefitted from the structure of the contract (including the team that originally signed the player to the contract) is penalized according to the amount of benefit they received.

So let's look at Hossa's contract. Hossa is 36 yrs old and signed a contract for 12 yrs, $62.8M, for a $5.275M annual cap hit. The Blackhawks are in dire straits with the salary cap

Hossa has played the first six years of the deal for $7.9M salary each season, so he has been paid 7.9x6 = $47.4M. The total cap hit over those six years is $5.275M x 6 = $31.65M.

He has six years remaining: one more year at $7.9M, another year at $4M, and then 4 years at $1M. That totals just $15.9M, though the cap hit over those six year remains at $31.65M.

Chicago has therefore reaped $47.4M - $31.65M = 15.75M in benefit thus far. After next season ($7.9M salary), they will add another $2.625M to that figure, bringing the peak total to $18.375M. After that, the amount of benefit will decrease as the cap hit will exceed the salary.

Suppose Chicago trades Hossa this summer. The $15.75M cap benefit sticks with Chicago no matter what - if he retires with 3 yrs remaining on his deal then they are stuck with a $5.25M cap charge for those three years. If he retires with 1 yr remaining on his deal then they are dealt a crippling $15.75M cap charge for one year.

The team taking Hossa on would incur a $2.625M cap benefit in the upcoming season, but will have that cut in half the next season when he makes $4M but counts for $5.275M against the cap. The season after that (season 3 after the trade), the "cap benefit" for the team receiving Hossa would be a negative number and the team may (or may not, I'm not sure) actually receive a cap credit in the event that Hossa retires. The risk for the team acquiring Hossa, then, would occur in the event that he continues to play but at a poor level not worthy of his cap hit, but they need not be concerned if he retires.

In the end, it seems to me that it would be a huge risk for Chicago to trade Hossa. Not only would they be giving up a still-productive player, but they would be putting him in the control of another team. By trading him, they risk alienating a player who could really screw them over by retiring. Perhaps Chicago could part with him amicably - but the possibility of salary cap disaster will loom over the franchise for years. Even if Hossa wanted to do right by the Hawks, his new team may force him to officially retire in some creative fashion.

By keeping him, on the other hand, Chicago can still convince him to pull a Pronger and enter retirement limbo wherein Hossa would be functionally retired but officially paid to "play hockey" for the Hawks until his contract expires. He would, in theory, have to have suffered a serious injury enough to be put on LTIR, but one imagines the league will turn a blind eye to the misdeeds of one of its premier franchises. Moreover, the longer he plays and the longer Chicago keeps him, the less devastating the recapture penalty would be if he ended up retiring before the end of his contract.

It's an interesting consequence of the cap recapture penalty. One imagines it will have to be Patrick Sharp or Bryan Bickell getting shipped out of Chicago, and not Hossa. Harder to imagine Brent Seabrook being traded away, with the blueline roster turnover to be expected for them I think they would want some continuity at that position.

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